Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112038
Christopher G. Gibbs , Herbert W. Xin
We compare sacrifice ratios for disinflations under an active monetary and passive fiscal policy mix to those obtained under passive monetary and active fiscal policy, holding all else equal. The sacrifice ratio may be higher or lower in the active fiscal policy regime depending on the fiscal rule and the design of the disinflation policy. Fiscal-led disinflations may be less costly than monetary-led ones when they are anticipated. However, they may generate larger sacrifice ratios than monetary-led ones when implemented “cold turkey”. Overall, the variance in possible sacrifice ratios under fiscal-led policies is much higher than under monetary-led policies.
{"title":"The sacrifice ratio and active fiscal policy","authors":"Christopher G. Gibbs , Herbert W. Xin","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We compare sacrifice ratios for disinflations under an active monetary and passive fiscal policy mix to those obtained under passive monetary and active fiscal policy, holding all else equal. The sacrifice ratio may be higher or lower in the active fiscal policy regime depending on the fiscal rule and the design of the disinflation policy. Fiscal-led disinflations may be less costly than monetary-led ones when they are anticipated. However, they may generate larger sacrifice ratios than monetary-led ones when implemented “cold turkey”. Overall, the variance in possible sacrifice ratios under fiscal-led policies is much higher than under monetary-led policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 112038"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112039
Xiaodong Wang , Guimei Feng , Jiayi Xu , Li Zhang
This paper takes the introduction of commission collection from sellers in the Chinese housing market as a significant shock, and reveals the role that information asymmetry plays in the market by examining the public's response to two types of commission collection. Our findings indicate that when sellers transition from a commission model that is solely borne by buyers to one that is shared between both buyers and sellers, the listing prices of housing decline significantly, by approximately 1.6 % to 2.3 %. In contrast, when sellers face no change in the commission structure, their listing prices do not show a significant decline. This reduction is primarily attributed to the new commission model mitigating the information asymmetry that sellers experience. This research offers valuable insights into the impact of information asymmetry in housing markets.
{"title":"Information asymmetry and public response: Evidence from the housing market","authors":"Xiaodong Wang , Guimei Feng , Jiayi Xu , Li Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper takes the introduction of commission collection from sellers in the Chinese housing market as a significant shock, and reveals the role that information asymmetry plays in the market by examining the public's response to two types of commission collection. Our findings indicate that when sellers transition from a commission model that is solely borne by buyers to one that is shared between both buyers and sellers, the listing prices of housing decline significantly, by approximately 1.6 % to 2.3 %. In contrast, when sellers face no change in the commission structure, their listing prices do not show a significant decline. This reduction is primarily attributed to the new commission model mitigating the information asymmetry that sellers experience. This research offers valuable insights into the impact of information asymmetry in housing markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112039"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112030
Jiafeng Pan , Te Du , Chao Fang
Many studies have shown that the US-China trade war has harmed China's exports and economy. This paper analyzes whether local governments respond to US 301 tariffs through public spending. Using the variation of tariff exposure across cities, this paper finds that the tariff shock led local governments to increase public spending, mainly on social security and employment. Heterogeneity analysis indicates this effect was more pronounced in cities with higher openness, lower fiscal pressure, and lower saving levels. Robustness tests are provided.
{"title":"Besides tit for tat: The effect of US 301 tariffs on Chinese local government spending","authors":"Jiafeng Pan , Te Du , Chao Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many studies have shown that the US-China trade war has harmed China's exports and economy. This paper analyzes whether local governments respond to US 301 tariffs through public spending. Using the variation of tariff exposure across cities, this paper finds that the tariff shock led local governments to increase public spending, mainly on social security and employment. Heterogeneity analysis indicates this effect was more pronounced in cities with higher openness, lower fiscal pressure, and lower saving levels. Robustness tests are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112030"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112029
Xia Hua, Zhuoran Chang, Wenqiang Ye
Since the advent of Bitcoin, numerous alternative cryptocurrencies have surfaced. Despite their proliferation and increasing popularity, these alternatives often experience brief lifespans, contrasting with Bitcoin's enduring presence. Our analysis of more than 800 alternative cryptocurrencies traded on decentralized exchanges (Dex) has shown that cryptocurrencies with larger supplies generally demonstrate shorter lifespans. The findings remain robust across different definitions of the term “lifespan”. We attribute this trend primarily to short-term speculation, stemming from the absence of intrinsic asset value. These findings hold significant implications for comprehending the risk and investor behavior associated with cryptocurrencies on decentralized exchanges.
{"title":"Larger supply, shorter life? Exploring evidence from alternative cryptocurrencies on decentralized exchanges","authors":"Xia Hua, Zhuoran Chang, Wenqiang Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the advent of Bitcoin, numerous alternative cryptocurrencies have surfaced. Despite their proliferation and increasing popularity, these alternatives often experience brief lifespans, contrasting with Bitcoin's enduring presence. Our analysis of more than 800 alternative cryptocurrencies traded on decentralized exchanges (Dex) has shown that cryptocurrencies with larger supplies generally demonstrate shorter lifespans. The findings remain robust across different definitions of the term “lifespan”. We attribute this trend primarily to short-term speculation, stemming from the absence of intrinsic asset value. These findings hold significant implications for comprehending the risk and investor behavior associated with cryptocurrencies on decentralized exchanges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112029"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112028
Harsimran Sandhu , Soumya Guha Deb
This study explores the relationship between AMCs and distributors in India, analyzing the effects of distributor commissions on mutual fund performance and AUM growth of equity funds. While commissions may temporarily boost AUM growth, they often lead to high-expense, underperforming funds, ultimately harming investors. Fund ratings, driven by performance, significantly influence AUM growth, but the negative impact of commissions on ratings can trigger a vicious cycle, hindering long-term growth.
{"title":"Nexus between AMCs and distributors and its impact on investor wealth","authors":"Harsimran Sandhu , Soumya Guha Deb","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the relationship between AMCs and distributors in India, analyzing the effects of distributor commissions on mutual fund performance and AUM growth of equity funds. While commissions may temporarily boost AUM growth, they often lead to high-expense, underperforming funds, ultimately harming investors. Fund ratings, driven by performance, significantly influence AUM growth, but the negative impact of commissions on ratings can trigger a vicious cycle, hindering long-term growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112028"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112024
Nicola Carta , Matteo Carta , Ugo Rigoni
In 2019 the European Union (EU) Climate Benchmarks Regulation established a set of standardized emission reduction criteria for financial benchmarks. This study examines the risk-adjusted performance of equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking EU Climate Transition Benchmarks (CTBs) and EU Paris-Aligned Benchmarks (PABs). Our findings reveal that, after the implementation of the regulation, equity CTB ETFs have exhibited no significant risk-adjusted performance difference compared to their non-sustainable twin ETFs. Conversely, equity PAB ETFs, which adhere to more stringent environmental standards, have underperformed their non-sustainable counterparts. Our results suggest that stringent emission reduction objectives have a negative effect on investors’ returns.
{"title":"The countdown to carbon neutrality: Implications for passive investors","authors":"Nicola Carta , Matteo Carta , Ugo Rigoni","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2019 the European Union (EU) Climate Benchmarks Regulation established a set of standardized emission reduction criteria for financial benchmarks. This study examines the risk-adjusted performance of equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking EU Climate Transition Benchmarks (CTBs) and EU Paris-Aligned Benchmarks (PABs). Our findings reveal that, after the implementation of the regulation, equity CTB ETFs have exhibited no significant risk-adjusted performance difference compared to their non-sustainable twin ETFs. Conversely, equity PAB ETFs, which adhere to more stringent environmental standards, have underperformed their non-sustainable counterparts. Our results suggest that stringent emission reduction objectives have a negative effect on investors’ returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112024"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-13DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112026
Hadi Harb , Mehmet Umutlu
We examine how global shocks from various sources propagate across industries and countries. Financial contagion is measured using residual-based and volatility-adjusted correlation. Specific industries and countries were resilient during both global crises, while others played a significant role in transmitting shocks.
{"title":"Shock resistors or transmitters? Contagion across industries and countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis","authors":"Hadi Harb , Mehmet Umutlu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how global shocks from various sources propagate across industries and countries. Financial contagion is measured using residual-based and volatility-adjusted correlation. Specific industries and countries were resilient during both global crises, while others played a significant role in transmitting shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112026"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-13DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112025
John R. Graham , Naoshi Ikeda , Kotaro Inoue , Takashi Yamasaki
We investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected CFOs’ self-assessed uncertainty about revenue growth and its impact on investment and hiring plans, using data from two consecutive surveys of the same CFOs conducted before and during the pandemic. Following the WHO's declaration, firm-level uncertainty increased, and investment plans were restrained. Furthermore, heightened firm-level uncertainty dampened firms' investment and hiring plans, even after controlling for other pandemic-related factors, as well as financial and investment flexibility.
{"title":"Uncertainty, corporate investment, and hiring: The case of COVID-19","authors":"John R. Graham , Naoshi Ikeda , Kotaro Inoue , Takashi Yamasaki","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected CFOs’ self-assessed uncertainty about revenue growth and its impact on investment and hiring plans, using data from two consecutive surveys of the same CFOs conducted before and during the pandemic. Following the WHO's declaration, firm-level uncertainty increased, and investment plans were restrained. Furthermore, heightened firm-level uncertainty dampened firms' investment and hiring plans, even after controlling for other pandemic-related factors, as well as financial and investment flexibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112025"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142526556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112022
Qingyang Han
This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the monopsony power of the labor market based on a forward-looking model of firm wage posting and worker job separation. In contrast to the literature, workers make job switching decisions based on firm-specific wage growth trajectories associated with different employers. The model is estimated using a matched employer employee panel data from Germany. The separation elasticity estimated from this model is greater than that from the conventional approach, suggesting that ignoring worker responses to heterogeneous wage growth rates lead to a potential overestimation of the actual monopsony power.
{"title":"Estimating labor market monopsony power from a forward-looking perspective","authors":"Qingyang Han","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the monopsony power of the labor market based on a forward-looking model of firm wage posting and worker job separation. In contrast to the literature, workers make job switching decisions based on firm-specific wage growth trajectories associated with different employers. The model is estimated using a matched employer employee panel data from Germany. The separation elasticity estimated from this model is greater than that from the conventional approach, suggesting that ignoring worker responses to heterogeneous wage growth rates lead to a potential overestimation of the actual monopsony power.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112022"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112019
Sean Telg
We study systematic and flow aggregation of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models. We show that aggregation preserves noncausality and generates a moving average component. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that backward- and forward-looking behavior can be identified empirically for sufficiently large samples.
{"title":"Time aggregation of mixed causal–noncausal models","authors":"Sean Telg","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study systematic and flow aggregation of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models. We show that aggregation preserves noncausality and generates a moving average component. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that backward- and forward-looking behavior can be identified empirically for sufficiently large samples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 112019"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142531018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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