Economics Letters最新文献

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A copula-quantile density approach to affiliated private value auctions 关联私人价值拍卖的copula-分位数密度方法

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112837

Hassan Doosti

We develop a tractable semiparametric framework for estimating affiliated private value (APV) models in first-price sealed-bid auctions by combining copula-based dependence modeling with quantile density function (QDF) methods. Building on the identification results of Li, Perrigne, and Vuong (2002), we propose a two-stage estimator that (i) uses nonparametric QDF methods (Doosti et al., 2025) to estimate marginal distributions, achieving superior boundary performance, and (ii) employs parametric Archimedean copulas to model affiliation, ensuring computational tractability while respecting the equilibrium structure. Our approach decomposes the inverse bid function into an affiliation component (copula multiplier

ψ (u)

) and a marginal component (quantile density

q (u)

), providing both theoretical insights and practical advantages. We extend this framework by developing a fully nonparametric estimator of the copula multiplier, enabling specification tests for parametric copula assumptions. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our estimators substantially outperform existing methods.

我们将基于copula的依赖模型与分位数密度函数（QDF）方法相结合，开发了一个易于处理的半参数框架，用于估计首价密封拍卖中的附属私人价值（APV）模型。在Li， Perrigne和Vuong（2002）的识别结果的基础上，我们提出了一个两阶段估计器，(i)使用非参数QDF方法（Doosti等人，2025）来估计边际分布，实现卓越的边界性能，（ii）使用参数阿基米德copulas来建模隶属关系，在尊重平衡结构的同时确保计算可跟踪性。我们的方法将投标逆函数分解为关联分量（copula乘数ψ(u)）和边际分量（分位数密度q(u)），提供了理论见解和实践优势。我们通过开发一个完全非参数的联结乘子估计器来扩展这个框架，使参数联结假设的规范检验成为可能。蒙特卡罗模拟表明，我们的估计器实质上优于现有的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Empirical evidence on the U.S. monetary–fiscal policy mix 美国货币-财政政策组合的实证证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112858

Emiliano A. Carlevaro , Qazi Haque , Leandro M. Magnusson

This paper revisits the U.S. fiscal-monetary policy mix using econometric methods that are robust to weak identification and sensitive to structural changes. We find that the pre-Volcker period was predominantly characterised by a passive monetary-passive fiscal regime, consistent with indeterminacy and the presence of self-fulfilling inflationary expectations. In contrast, the post-Volcker period exhibits strong evidence of an active monetary-passive fiscal regime, reflecting greater inflation control and fiscal discipline.

本文使用计量经济学方法重新审视了美国的财政货币政策组合，这些方法对弱识别和结构变化都很敏感。我们发现，前沃尔克时期的主要特征是被动货币-被动财政制度，与不确定性和自我实现的通胀预期相一致。相比之下，后沃尔克时期显示出积极货币-被动财政体制的有力证据，反映出更强的通胀控制和财政纪律。

引用次数: 0

Research grants and independent scientific contributions: Evidence from authorship position 研究经费和独立科学贡献：来自作者地位的证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112862

Matěj Bajgar , Suren Karapetyan

We examine whether competitive research grants generate independent research by the funded investigator. We distinguish first- and last-author publications—indicating leading contribution in biomedical research—from total output. Using data on Czech medical research grants awarded between 2015 and 2019, we apply a regression discontinuity design around the funding cutoff. Grants increase total publications by 3.1 papers (22%). First- and last-author publications increase by 59% and 41% respectively—substantially exceeding the total effect. These gains extend to high-tier journals and to citations. Effects are strongest for female and less senior investigators, consistent with grants mattering most when funding is constrained.

我们考察竞争性研究资助是否会产生受资助研究者的独立研究。我们区分第一作者和最后作者的出版物——表明生物医学研究的主要贡献——和总产出。使用2015年至2019年捷克医学研究资助的数据，我们采用了围绕资金中断的回归不连续设计。资助使总发表论文增加3.1篇（22%）。第一作者和最后作者发表的文章分别增加了59%和41%，大大超过了总效果。这些收益扩展到高级期刊和引用。对女性和资历较低的研究人员的影响最大，这与资助在资金受限时最重要的情况一致。

引用次数: 0

The incompatibility of the Condorcet winner and loser criteria with positive involvement and resolvability 孔多塞赢家和输家标准与积极参与和可解决性的不兼容性

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112868

Wesley H. Holliday

We prove that there is no preferential voting method satisfying the Condorcet winner and loser criteria, positive involvement (if a candidate

x

wins in an initial preference profile, then adding a voter who ranks

x

uniquely first cannot cause

x

to lose), and

n

-voter resolvability (if

x

initially ties for winning, then

x

can be made the unique winner by adding some set of up to

n

voters). This impossibility theorem holds for any positive integer

n

. It also holds if either the Condorcet loser criterion is replaced by independence of clones or positive involvement is replaced by negative involvement.

我们证明，没有一种优先投票方法可以满足Condorcet赢家和输家标准、积极参与（如果候选人x在初始偏好配置文件中获胜，那么添加一个唯一排名x的选民不会导致x失败）和n个选民可解析性（如果x最初获胜，那么通过添加一些最多n个选民的集合，x可以成为唯一的赢家）。这个不可能性定理对任何正整数n都成立。如果孔多塞输家准则被克隆的独立性取代，或者正介入被负介入取代，它也成立。

引用次数: 0

An improved density approximation for the Zivot–Andrews test 改进的密度近似Zivot-Andrews测试

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112833

Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti

The unit-root test by Zivot and Andrews(1992) for series with possible structural breaks has been the industry standard for over 30 years. All available software reports the critical values presented in the original article, which were computed with the technology available at the time.

By a much larger simulation exercise, the relevant distributions are approximated by Gaussian mixtures. This makes the computation of

p

-values straightforward and handles finite-sample issues very naturally.

We show that the discrepancies between the original critical values and ours are relatively minor, but not negligible in some cases.

Zivot和Andrews（1992）对可能存在结构性断裂的序列进行的单位根检验已成为30多年来的行业标准。所有可用的软件都报告原始文章中给出的临界值，这些临界值是用当时可用的技术计算出来的。通过更大规模的模拟练习，相关分布近似于高斯混合。这使得p值的计算非常简单，并且非常自然地处理有限样本问题。我们表明，原始临界值与我们的差异相对较小，但在某些情况下不可忽略。

引用次数: 0

Carbon emission risk and cross-asset pricing in commodity markets 商品市场中的碳排放风险与交叉资产定价

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112854

Mingfa Ding , Ai Jun Hou , Sandy Suardi , Caihong Xu

This paper examines whether carbon emission risk, widely documented in equity markets, is also priced in Chinese commodity markets. Using firm-level emission data and commodity futures from 2016 to 2021, we construct an equity-based high-minus-low (HML) carbon factor. The HML factor earns a significant monthly premium of 0.7% in the cross-section of commodity returns, while traditional commodity and macroeconomic factors show limited explanatory power. The results provide the first evidence of within-economy cross-asset transmission of carbon risk, underscoring the rising role of environmental risk in commodity pricing.

本文考察了在股票市场中广泛存在的碳排放风险是否也反映在中国大宗商品市场中。利用2016年至2021年的企业排放数据和商品期货，我们构建了一个基于股票的高负低（HML）碳因子。HML因素在商品收益横截面上获得了0.7%的显著月溢价，而传统的商品和宏观经济因素的解释能力有限。研究结果首次证明了碳风险在经济内部的跨资产传导，强调了环境风险在大宗商品定价中的日益重要的作用。

引用次数: 0

Sailing towards sustainability: The effect of Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zones on corporate green investment 迈向可持续发展：海洋经济发展示范区对企业绿色投资的影响

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112877

Yong Wang , Qingchuan Yi , Tianquan Jin

This paper uses the establishment of Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zones (MEDDZs) as a quasi-natural experiment and applies the DID method to investigate the impact of this policy on corporate green investment in China. This paper finds that the establishment of MEDDZs can promote corporate green investment, through expanding exports, strengthening environmental regulations, and alleviating financing constraints. Green finance and digital infrastructure amplify this effect. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned and heavy-polluting enterprises. This study helps to understand how to pursue green transformation while expanding marine economy and provides guidance for designing and evaluating marine policies.

本文以建立海洋经济发展示范区作为准自然实验，运用DID方法考察该政策对中国企业绿色投资的影响。研究发现，通过扩大出口、加强环境监管和缓解融资约束，建立开发区能够促进企业绿色投资。绿色金融和数字基础设施放大了这一效应。而且，这种影响在非国有企业和重污染企业中更为明显。本研究有助于理解如何在发展海洋经济的同时实现绿色转型，并为海洋政策的设计和评估提供指导。

引用次数: 0

Determining the number of breaks in high-dimensional factor models with interval-valued data 确定具有区间值数据的高维因子模型中的断裂数

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112869

Yan Guo , Jing Chen , Jianhong Wu

The paper considers a high-dimensional interval-valued data factor model with potential structural changes. We verify that the number of factors is usually overestimated in the case with structural changes and then propose an estimator for the number of breaks by leveraging the finding. We establish the consistency of this estimator under certain conditions. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed estimation procedure exhibits desired finite sample performance. In addition, an empirical application to S&P 100 stock return data further demonstrates the practical usefulness of the proposed method.

本文考虑具有潜在结构变化的高维区间值数据因子模型。我们验证了在结构变化的情况下，因素的数量通常被高估了，然后通过利用这一发现提出了中断数量的估计器。我们在一定条件下建立了这个估计量的相合性。蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明，所提出的估计方法具有良好的有限样本性能。此外，对标普100股票收益数据的实证应用进一步证明了所提出方法的实用性。

引用次数: 0

Adoption–usage demand: A discrete–continuous microfoundation 采用-使用需求：一个离散-连续的微基础

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112894

Régis Y. Chenavaz , Antonin Chenavaz

We develop a microfounded discrete–continuous demand model that couples a logit participation decision with Cobb–Douglas usage conditional on purchase. The structure delivers closed-form expressions for individual demand, adoption probabilities, and welfare, providing a normative foundation for the practice of multiplying incidence and conditional quantity equations. A transparent elasticity decomposition separates usage from adoption responses, yields monotone comparative statics, and preserves random-utility log-sum welfare. Extensions include multi-product adoption with multinomial logit shares.

我们建立了一个微观离散-连续需求模型，该模型将logit参与决策与以购买为条件的Cobb-Douglas使用相结合。该结构提供了个人需求、采用概率和福利的封闭形式表达式，为发生率和条件数量方程相乘的实践提供了规范基础。透明的弹性分解将使用与采用响应分开，产生单调的比较静态，并保留随机效用对数和福利。扩展包括多项逻辑共享的多产品采用。

引用次数: 0

Empirical evidence of a green investment channel of monetary policy under the EU ETS 欧盟排放交易体系下货币政策绿色投资渠道的实证研究

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112816

Whelsy Boungou , Bastien Dufau

This paper examines the influence of monetary policy on the impact of the Phase IV announcement of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on firms’ R&D investments. To this end, we employ a Difference-in-Differences approach on 128 industrial sectors (95 regulated and 33 non-regulated) across OECD countries between 2005 and 2019. The results show that the announcement of Phase IV in 2015 significantly boosted R&D investments in regulated firms, with the effects strengthening as the implementation year approached. Moreover, accommodative monetary policy, through persistently low interest rates, amplified these investments by lowering financing costs. Our findings highlight the complementarity between environmental regulation and macroeconomic policy in fostering green innovation.

本文考察了货币政策对欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）第四阶段公告对企业研发投资的影响。为此，我们在2005年至2019年期间对经合组织国家的128个工业部门（95个受监管，33个不受监管）采用了差异中的差异方法。结果表明，2015年第四阶段的公告显著促进了受监管企业的研发投资，随着实施年份的临近，效果越来越强。此外，宽松的货币政策通过持续的低利率，通过降低融资成本，扩大了这些投资。我们的研究结果强调了环境监管和宏观经济政策在促进绿色创新方面的互补性。

引用次数: 0

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