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Does analyst forecast informativeness affect managers’ financial reporting incentives? 分析师的预测信息量是否会影响管理者的财务报告动机？
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111995
Kimberly S. Krieg , Ferdinand Siagian , Juan Wu
This study investigates how the informativeness of analyst forecasts affects managers’ financial reporting incentives. Using a novel Match Index to estimate the earnings management induced by analyst forecasts, we find that when analyst forecasts are less informative, managers place less value on using them as a benchmark and thus, engage in less earnings management to meet that benchmark.
本研究探讨了分析师预测的信息量如何影响管理者的财务报告动机。通过使用新颖的匹配指数来估算分析师预测所引发的收益管理，我们发现，当分析师预测的信息量较少时，管理者会降低将其作为基准的价值，从而减少为达到该基准而进行的收益管理。
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引用次数: 0
A nonparametric test of mth-degree inverse stochastic dominance 第 mth 度逆随机优势的非参数检验
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111978
Hongyi Jiang , Zhenting Sun , Shiyun Hu
This paper proposes a nonparametric test for mth-degree inverse stochastic dominance which is a powerful tool for ranking distribution functions according to social welfare. We construct the test based on empirical process theory. The test is shown to be asymptotically size controlled and consistent. The good finite sample properties of the test are illustrated via Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our test to the inequality growth in the United Kingdom from 1995 to 2010, and obtain a more complete ranking of the income distributions.
本文提出了一种 mth 度反向随机占优的非参数检验，它是根据社会福利对分布函数进行排序的有力工具。我们基于经验过程理论构建了该检验。结果表明，该检验具有渐进的规模控制和一致性。我们通过蒙特卡罗模拟说明了该检验的良好有限样本特性。我们将检验应用于 1995 年至 2010 年英国的不平等增长情况，并获得了更完整的收入分布排名。
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引用次数: 0
Do fertility preferences in early adulthood predict later average fertility outcomes of the same cohort?: Pritchett (1994) revisited with cohort data 成年早期的生育偏好能否预测同一队列后来的平均生育结果？普里切特（1994 年）利用队列数据进行的再研究
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111975
Stuart Gietel-Basten , Melissa LoPalo , Dean Spears , Sangita Vyas
Pritchett (1994) influentially examined the relationship between survey-reported ideal fertility and period total fertility rates. Pritchett’s analyses found that country-period by country-period differences in fertility preferences could statistically account for the majority of the variation in period total fertility rates. This result was impactful because it suggested that preferences, rather than constraints such as contraceptive access, explain fertility outcomes. However, because Pritchett’s analysis documented a correlation between two period measures, it cannot say whether a cohort of women achieves their fertility preferences, on average, over a life course. In the three decades since Pritchett’s paper, a longer span of repeated cross-section data has been collected that allows us to revisit this question with data that tracks cohorts of women as they age. In this paper, we update this evidence by examining the relationship between ideal fertility in early adulthood and completed fertility for the same cohort of women in later adulthood. We find that the prior result replicates: The relationship between fertility preferences and completed cohort fertility is, if anything, even stronger in our data.
Pritchett （1994 年）对调查报告的理想生育率与时期总和生育率之间的关系进行了研究，对这一研究具有重要影响。Pritchett 的分析发现，不同国家不同时期的生育偏好差异在统计学上可以解释不同时期总生育率的大部分变化。这一结果很有影响力，因为它表明，是生育偏好而不是避孕药具等限制因素解释了生育结果。然而，由于普里切特的分析记录了两个时期衡量指标之间的相关性，因此无法说明一个妇女群体是否在一生中平均实现了她们的生育偏好。自普里切特的论文发表后的三十年间，我们收集了更长跨度的重复横截面数据，使我们能够通过跟踪妇女群组年龄增长的数据来重新审视这个问题。在本文中，我们通过研究成年早期的理想生育率与成年晚期同一组群妇女的完成生育率之间的关系，更新了这一证据。我们发现，先前的结果得到了复制：在我们的数据中，生育偏好与完成队列生育率之间的关系甚至更加紧密。
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引用次数: 0
Ultimatum bargaining: Algorithms vs. Humans 最后通牒谈判：算法与人类
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111979
Ali I. Ozkes , Nobuyuki Hanaki , Dieter Vanderelst , Jurgen Willems
We study human behavior in ultimatum game when interacting with either human or algorithmic opponents. We examine how the type of the AI algorithm (mimicking human behavior, optimising gains, or providing no explanation) and the presence of a human beneficiary affect sending and accepting behaviors. Our experimental data reveal that subjects generally do not differentiate between human and algorithmic opponents, between different algorithms, and between an explained and unexplained algorithm. However, they are more willing to forgo higher payoffs when the algorithm’s earnings benefit a human.
我们研究了人类与人类或算法对手互动时在最后通牒博弈中的行为。我们研究了人工智能算法的类型（模仿人类行为、优化收益或不提供解释）和人类受益人的存在如何影响发送和接受行为。我们的实验数据显示，受试者一般不会区分人类对手和算法对手、不同算法、已解释算法和未解释算法。然而，当算法的收益有利于人类时，他们更愿意放弃更高的回报。
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引用次数: 0
European politicians and financial literacy activism: Does financial (in)stability matter? 欧洲政治家和金融扫盲活动：金融（不）稳定重要吗？
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111981
Elisa Borghi, Donato Masciandaro, Alessia Papini
Financial education can influence the level of financial literacy. In each country, political incentives can shape financial education policies. Political activism in financial education can be motivated by concerns over financial instability. This theoretical relationship is empirically validated applying text analysis. By using financial education narratives as a proxy for political activism among European Parliament politicians from 1997 to 2024, we test whether financial instability cases matter in explaining political activism in financial education.
金融教育可以影响金融知识水平。在每个国家，政治动机都会影响金融教育政策。对金融不稳定性的担忧可能是推动金融教育的政治动机。这一理论关系通过文本分析得到了实证验证。通过将金融教育叙事作为 1997 年至 2024 年欧洲议会政治家政治积极性的代表，我们检验了金融不稳定性案例是否有助于解释金融教育中的政治积极性。
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引用次数: 0
Probability distortion and non-participation 概率扭曲和不参与
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111989
Lunyi Wang , Yao Wang , Shunming Zhang
This paper explores the impact of probability distortion on investors’ participation decisions and market performance. Specifically, we construct a one-period investment model with two types of investors—probabilistic pessimistic and neutral investors. The former assign more weight to bad outcomes and tail events when making decisions. Our findings suggest that non-participation arises from these probabilistic pessimistic investors. In equilibrium, their participation decisions affect the asset premium, which can be decomposed into the risk premium and probabilistic premium.
本文探讨了概率扭曲对投资者参与决策和市场表现的影响。具体而言，我们构建了一个单期投资模型，其中包含两类投资者--概率悲观型投资者和中性投资者。前者在做决策时更看重坏结果和尾部事件。我们的研究结果表明，不参与是由这些概率悲观型投资者引起的。在均衡状态下，他们的参与决策会影响资产溢价，而资产溢价可分解为风险溢价和概率溢价。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risks, corporate bonds, and economic uncertainty 气候风险、公司债券和经济不确定性
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111984
Vaibhav Lalwani

We test for the existence of climate change risks in corporate bond returns. Using risk factors based on textual analysis of news articles, we estimate the sensitivity of bonds to climate change news. Bonds that covary highly with global warming news earn lower returns. We also test whether economic policy uncertainty moderates the relationship between bond returns and climate news risk. The lower returns to high climate-risk bonds are driven by periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, investors increase their demand for bonds that perform better in periods of high global warming risks, especially when economic uncertainty is high.

我们检验了公司债券收益中是否存在气候变化风险。利用基于新闻文章文本分析的风险因素，我们估算了债券对气候变化新闻的敏感性。与全球变暖新闻高度共生的债券收益较低。我们还检验了经济政策的不确定性是否调节了债券收益与气候新闻风险之间的关系。在经济政策不确定性较高的时期，高气候风险债券的回报率较低。因此，在全球变暖风险高发期，尤其是经济不确定性高发期，投资者会增加对表现更好的债券的需求。
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引用次数: 0
How to interpret consumer confidence shocks? State-level evidence 如何解读消费者信心冲击？国家层面的证据
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111985
Sangyup Choi , Jaehun Jeong , Donghoon Yoo

Using novel quarterly data of 29 U.S. states from 2005:I to 2015:IV, we revisit the link between consumer confidence and economic activity. We find that an innovation in consumer confidence is followed by a significant and persistent increase in consumption and output but a temporary decline in inflation. These findings suggest that the supply-side (news) interpretation of consumer confidence receives more empirical support than the demand-side (animal spirit) interpretation in our sample.

利用 2005:I 至 2015:IV 期间美国 29 个州的新季度数据，我们重新审视了消费者信心与经济活动之间的联系。我们发现，随着消费者信心的增强，消费和产出会显著持续增长，但通货膨胀会暂时下降。这些发现表明，在我们的样本中，对消费者信心的供给方（新闻）解释比需求方（动物精神）解释获得了更多的经验支持。
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引用次数: 0
10 years of stablecoins: Their impact, what we know, and future research directions 稳定币 10 年：稳定币的影响、我们所知道的以及未来的研究方向
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111939
Lambis Dionysopoulos , Andrew Urquhart
This paper highlights the growth and importance of stablecoins since they were launched 10 years ago. We outline their impact on the cryptocurrency ecosystem as well as the financial system as a whole, while also summarising the main findings in the literature. Finally, we outline future research directions.
本文强调了稳定币自 10 年前推出以来的发展和重要性。我们概述了它们对加密货币生态系统以及整个金融体系的影响，同时还总结了文献中的主要发现。最后，我们概述了未来的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
The needs of the many, the wealth of the few: How responsibility affects decision-making for others 多数人的需求，少数人的财富：责任如何影响为他人做出决策
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111986
Georgia E. Buckle , Sascha Füllbrunn , Wolfgang J. Luhan
We test whether the number of principals or the investment amount amplify responsibility in risky decision-making for others. We do not find increased caution for more people, but rather an effect of increased endowment per person, but not in total.
我们检验了委托人数量或投资金额是否会扩大他人在风险决策中的责任。我们并没有发现更多的人更加谨慎，而是发现每个人的捐赠额增加会产生影响，但总捐赠额没有增加。
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