Economics Letters最新文献

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Once Burned, Twice Shy? Intergenerational Distrust After Ghana’s 1982 Currency Recall 一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳？加纳1982年货币召回后的代际不信任

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112757

Jialiang Zhu , Michael Akwasi Appiah-Kubi , Zhuoran Li

This paper examines the long run and intergenerational effects of Ghana’s January 1982 currency recall on financial behavior using nationally representative microdata from the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel for 2018 to 2019. Logit estimates show that directly exposed adults are 8.9 percentage points less likely to obtain a formal loan, 5.5 percentage points more likely to save cash at home, and 10.0 percentage points more likely to participate in susu groups. A regression discontinuity at the 1964 birth year cutoff shows a discrete decline in formal loan use for adults relative to adjacent younger cohorts. For the second generation, parental exposure is associated with a 7.1 percentage point decline in bank account ownership and a 10.4 percentage point increase in the preference for saving cash at home, with larger effects when the link between parent and child is tightened. The evidence points to persistent trust scars from a one off confiscatory monetary policy that shift households toward informal, cash-based mechanisms even decades later.

本文利用2018年至2019年加纳社会经济小组的全国代表性微观数据，研究了加纳1982年1月货币召回对金融行为的长期和代际影响。洛吉特估计，直接接触毒品的成年人获得正式贷款的可能性要低8.9个百分点，在家里存钱的可能性要高5.5个百分点，参加苏苏团体的可能性要高10.0个百分点。在1964年出生年份截止点的回归不连续显示，相对于邻近的年轻群体，成年人使用正式贷款的情况出现了离散下降。对于第二代人来说，父母的风险敞口与银行账户拥有量下降7.1个百分点和在家存钱的偏好增加10.4个百分点有关，当父母和孩子之间的联系更紧密时，影响更大。有证据表明，一次性的没收性货币政策甚至在几十年后将家庭转向非正式的、以现金为基础的机制，造成了持久的信任创伤。

引用次数: 0

Choice of export policy for oligopolistic industries with cross-ownership under uncertainty 不确定条件下交叉所有制寡占产业出口政策选择

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112767

Haokai Ning , Ruihui Li , Zifan Bi

We investigate the role of cross-ownership in shaping optimal export policy under demand uncertainty in a Cournot duopoly. Governments choose between export subsidies and voluntary export restraints (VERs) prior to the resolution of uncertainty, seeking to shift oligopoly rents toward domestic firms. In a symmetric Nash equilibrium, where both governments adopt the same policy instrument, higher cross-ownership weakens export protection and raises expected welfare. In an asymmetric Nash equilibrium, where governments pursue different policy instruments, the impact of cross-ownership on export protection and expected welfare is more complex, depending on the instruments adopted. We further demonstrate that the critical threshold of demand uncertainty at which a Nash equilibrium emerges is directly linked to the extent of cross-ownership.

我们研究了在古诺双寡头需求不确定性下，交叉所有权在形成最优出口政策中的作用。在解决不确定性之前，政府在出口补贴和自愿出口限制（VERs）之间做出选择，寻求将寡头垄断租金转移给国内企业。在对称纳什均衡中，两国政府采用相同的政策工具，较高的交叉所有权削弱了出口保护，提高了预期福利。在政府采取不同政策工具的非对称纳什均衡中，根据所采用的政策工具的不同，交叉所有权对出口保护和预期福利的影响更为复杂。我们进一步证明了纳什均衡出现时需求不确定性的临界阈值与交叉所有权的程度直接相关。

引用次数: 0

Asymptotic Nash implementation in large congestion-type games 大拥塞型博弈中的渐近纳什实现

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112768

Hanping Xu , Bin Wu , Enxian Chen

This paper establishes an asymptotic implementation result in large congestion-type games. We show that if players in a large finite congestion-type game adopt the Nash equilibrium distribution of the corresponding continuum game, the resulting strategy profile forms an

ɛ_{n}

-Nash equilibrium with

ɛ_{n} \sim O (n^{- 1 / 2})

. This provides a simple and practical way for players to achieve near-optimal outcomes without knowing the exact number of participants.

本文建立了大拥塞型对策的渐近实现结果。我们证明，如果一个大型有限拥塞型博弈中的参与者采用相应连续体博弈的纳什均衡分布，所得到的策略轮廓形成一个具有n ~ O（n−1/2）的n-纳什均衡。这为玩家提供了一种简单而实用的方法，让他们在不知道参与者确切人数的情况下获得接近最佳的结果。

引用次数: 0

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets 当价格飙升：识别化肥市场的过度波动

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112758

Feng Yao , Manuel A. Hernandez

Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) — the high return threshold exceeded with low probability — to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al. (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

化肥价格的急剧波动可能会阻碍采用并降低农业生产率，尤其是在脆弱的小农中。采用非参数位置尺度方法对价格回报进行建模，我们量化了条件风险价值（CVaR），即低概率超过高回报阈值，以确定钾肥、尿素和磷酸二铵（DAP）市场的过度价格飙升。我们使用了Martins-Filho等人（2018）的偏差校正估计器，并提出了一个基于Hill（1975）的更简单的估计器。回测结果表明，基于hill的估计器的性能优越，支持其作为在全球反复波动中检测异常肥料价格飙升的方便方法的价值。

引用次数: 0

The cost of money is part of the cost of living 钱的成本是生活成本的一部分

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112728

Marijn A. Bolhuis , Judd N.L. Cramer , Karl Oskar Schulz , Lawrence H. Summers

As the US economy bounced back from the post-pandemic inflation surge, consumer sentiment remained depressed even though unemployment was low, and inflation was falling. This confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. We propose that borrowing costs, which grew at rates they had not reached in decades, do much to explain this gap. The cost of money is not currently included in traditional price indexes, indicating a disconnect between the measures favored by economists and the effective costs borne by consumers. We show that the lows in US consumer sentiment that cannot be explained by unemployment and official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply. Concerns over borrowing costs, which have historically tracked the cost of money, were at their highest levels since the Volcker-era. We then develop alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs and can account for almost three-quarters of the gap in US consumer sentiment in 2023.

随着美国经济从疫情后的通胀飙升中反弹，尽管失业率很低，但消费者信心仍然低迷，通胀也在下降。这让经济学家感到困惑，他们历来依赖这两个变量来衡量消费者对经济的看法。我们认为，借贷成本在很大程度上解释了这一差距，而借贷成本的增长速度是几十年来从未达到的。传统的物价指数目前不包括货币成本，这表明经济学家青睐的衡量标准与消费者承担的实际成本之间存在脱节。我们的研究表明，失业率和官方通胀无法解释的美国消费者信心低迷，与借贷成本和消费者信贷供应密切相关。对借贷成本的担忧处于沃尔克时代以来的最高水平。借贷成本历来与资金成本密切相关。然后，我们制定了包括借贷成本在内的替代通胀指标，可以解释2023年美国消费者信心缺口的近四分之三。

引用次数: 0

Asymptotic inference for Hasbrouck information shares Hasbrouck信息共享的渐近推断

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112756

Karsten Schweikert

We derive the asymptotic distribution of Hasbrouck information shares and provide a large sample approximation to conduct standard hypothesis tests. The finite sample properties are studied with simulation experiments. While the resulting tests are properly sized and have sufficient power against the null, the size properties are distorted if the null hypothesis is located at the bounds. We therefore suggest a specific test for the “one central market” hypothesis. Additionally, we provide a generalized Wald test to test for equality of shares.

我们推导了Hasbrouck信息共享的渐近分布，并提供了一个大样本近似来进行标准假设检验。通过仿真实验研究了有限样品的性能。虽然所得到的测试大小适当，并且对零值具有足够的能力，但如果零假设位于边界处，则大小属性会失真。因此，我们建议对“一个中心市场”假设进行具体检验。此外，我们还提供了一个广义Wald检验来检验股份是否相等。

引用次数: 0

Does nature dependence drive firms’ supply chain risk? 自然依赖是否驱动了企业的供应链风险？

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112754

Huy Viet Hoang, Giang Thi Minh Vu

Using the fixed effect estimator on a U.S. firm dataset from 2012 to 2021, this study reveals that greater dependence on natural resources significantly increases supply chain risk. The mechanism analysis identifies that supply chain risk intensifies when firms face greater volatility in input material costs and maintain lower inventory reserves, supporting the inventory management channel. Additional evidence shows that this unfavorable impact is amplified following major global shocks, namely the 2016 Paris Agreement and the 2018 U.S.–China trade war. These findings collectively underscore the need for enhanced input diversification, inventory resilience, and adaptive strategies in managing nature-related risks.

通过对2012年至2021年美国企业数据集的固定效应估计，本研究表明，对自然资源的依赖程度越高，供应链风险就会显著增加。机制分析表明，当企业面临更大的投入材料成本波动，维持较低的库存储备，支持库存管理渠道时，供应链风险加剧。其他证据表明，在2016年《巴黎协定》和2018年中美贸易战等重大全球冲击之后，这种不利影响被放大。这些发现共同强调了在管理自然相关风险方面需要加强投入多样化、库存弹性和适应性策略。

引用次数: 0

Trade flows and RTAs: Does Brexit matter after all? 贸易流动和区域贸易协定：英国脱欧到底重要吗？

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112751

Amélie Guillin , Chahir Zaki

After Brexit, the United Kingdom (UK) signed various regional trade agreements (RTAs) that had almost the same content with the same partners of the European Union. Using a gravity model, we show that these new RTAs failed to increase the UK trade. Indeed, while trade gains were chiefly attributed to the RTAs signed by the EU, the UK experienced trade diversion in the wake of Brexit. At the level of trade margins, whereas neither the level nor the growth rate of trade was affected by these RTAs, the latter were associated with a decrease in the number of traded products.

脱欧后，英国与欧盟的相同伙伴签署了各种内容几乎相同的区域贸易协定（rta）。通过引力模型，我们发现这些新的区域贸易协定并没有增加英国的贸易。事实上，尽管贸易增长主要归功于欧盟签署的区域贸易协定，但英国在脱欧后经历了贸易转移。在贸易差额水平上，虽然这些区域贸易协定既不影响贸易水平，也不影响贸易增长率，但后者与贸易产品数量的减少有关。

引用次数: 0

Green bond certification inflation under competition: Reputation free-riding and regulatory design 竞争下的绿色债券认证膨胀：声誉搭便车与监管设计

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112755

Dejan Glavas

Green bond certification standards decline when investors learn from market outcomes. We show certifier competition exacerbates this inflation through reputation free-riding. Under oligopoly, each certifier bears full verification costs but captures only part of reputation benefits from reduced greenwashing. In a two-period model with investor learning, duopoly period-1 standards are about 57% of monopoly levels, and both periods’ standards are lower under competition. Mandatory minimum standards restore efficiency, with optimal floors increasing in competition intensity. These findings provide theoretical foundations for regulatory oversight in green bond certification markets.

当投资者从市场结果中学习时，绿色债券认证标准就会下降。我们发现，认证机构的竞争通过搭便车的方式加剧了这种通货膨胀。在寡头垄断的情况下，每个认证机构承担全部的认证成本，但只能从减少“漂绿”中获得部分声誉收益。在考虑投资者学习的两期模型中，双寡头时期1的标准约为垄断水平的57%，在竞争条件下，两期的标准都较低。强制性最低标准恢复了效率，最优下限随着竞争强度的增加而增加。研究结果为绿色债券认证市场的监管提供了理论依据。

引用次数: 0

When climate speaks, who answers? Climate change exposure, environmental disclosure and CEO characteristics in Europe 当气候说话时，谁来回答？气候变化暴露、环境信息披露与欧洲CEO特征

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112753

Mohammed Alzarah , Apostolos Kourtis , Raphael N. Markellos

We study whether firm-specific climate change exposure affects environmental disclosure and how CEO traits influence this relationship. Using data from STOXX Europe 600 firms, we find that higher climate risk leads to higher-quality disclosure. A one-standard-deviation increase in climate change exposure is associated with up to a 28% increase in the disclosure score, relative to the sample average. This effect is stronger for firms with longer-tenured or younger CEOs. Our findings highlight that firm-level climate risk and CEO experience drive environmental transparency, even under Europe’s rigid reporting standards.

我们研究了企业特定的气候变化暴露是否影响环境信息披露，以及CEO特质如何影响这种关系。利用斯托克欧洲600强公司的数据，我们发现更高的气候风险导致更高质量的信息披露。相对于样本平均值而言，气候变化暴露程度每增加一个标准差，披露得分就会增加28%。这种效应在ceo任期较长或较年轻的公司更为明显。我们的研究结果强调，即使在欧洲严格的报告标准下，公司层面的气候风险和CEO经验也会推动环境透明度。

引用次数: 0

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