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Trade Patterns and Determinants of International Specialization Structure between ASEAN and China 东盟与中国贸易格局及其国际专业化结构的决定因素
Pub Date : 2014-09-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2500077
J. Cheong, Hokyung Bang
China and ASEAN are recognized as the most important markets in the world, hence they have emerged as global factories and parts production bases. And trade between China and ASEAN is rapidly expanding and ASEAN has taken position as one of China's three major trading partners. Over the last 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in intra-industry trade where differentiated products are traded within the same industries between China and ASEAN countries. Empirical analysis on determinants of the international specialization structure between China and ASEAN countries shows that the deepening structure of vertical international specialization between the two regions over the past 20 years has been directly influenced by variables representing national characteristics, such as distance (trading cost), common language, the size of the national economy and income gap as well as intra-regional foreign direct investment.
中国和东盟被公认为全球最重要的市场,已成为全球工厂和零部件生产基地。中国与东盟贸易发展迅速,东盟已成为中国三大贸易伙伴之一。在过去的20年里,中国和东盟国家之间的产业内贸易迅速增长,在同一产业内进行差异化产品的贸易。对中国与东盟国家间国际专业化结构决定因素的实证分析表明,近20年来,中国与东盟国家间垂直国际专业化结构的深化受到距离(交易成本)、共同语言、国民经济规模和收入差距、区域内外商直接投资等具有民族特征的变量的直接影响。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral Insights for Development from Mobile Network Big Data: Enlightening Policy Makers on the State of the Art 移动网络大数据对发展的行为洞察:对政策制定者的最新启示
Pub Date : 2014-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2522814
Sriganesh Lokanathan, Roshanthi Lucas Gunaratne
The discipline of Information and Communication Technologies for Development (ICT4D) gained traction against the exponential growth in mobile phone connectivity. There has been a multitude of projects, services, applications and even policies that aim to leverage the mobile phone to contribute to the broader development of society. This has gone hand in hand with much academic interest in understanding the effects of mobile phone connectivity on development. However it is only of late that attention is being paid to posing development related questions to the basic data artifacts that are left behind by society when consuming mobile phone services. These artifacts come under the class of Transaction Generated Data (TGD) having been recorded by mobile phone operators when certain events (for e.g. when one makes a call) occur for the purposes of billing and network optimization. Given the volumes of TGD that is produced it also falls under the category of Big Data. Big data is an amorphous category that could, for instance, include data from an astronomical observatory or the full text of all the digitized books from the 20th century. Like many others, the 2011 McKinsey Global Institute report on Big Data focuses solely on the "big" in defining the term: "Big data refers to datasets whose size is beyond the ability of typical database software tools to capture, store, manage, and analyze" (Manyika et al., 2011). This definition is intentionally subjective and incorporates a moving definition of how big a dataset needs to be in order to be considered big data with the implicit assumption that as technology advances over time, the size of datasets that qualify as big data will also increase. Also note that the definition can vary by sector, depending on what kinds of software tools are commonly available and what sizes of datasets are common in a particular industry. With those caveats, big data in many sectors today will range from a few dozen terabytes to multiple petabytes (thousands of terabytes). Gartner (2011) introduced additional important definitional characteristics in addition to volume, namely velocity and variety. Velocity refers to the speed at which data is generated, assessed and analyzed. The term "Variety" encompasses the fact that data can exist as different media (text, audio, video) and come in different format (structured and unstructured). Value is a fourth definitional characteristic that acknowledges the potential high socio-economic value that may be generated by Big Data (Jones, 2012). Included within its scope is the category of transaction-generated data (TGD), also sometimes described as "data exhaust." This category was first discussed in 1991, though the term then used was transaction-generated information. The value of this subset of big data is that it is directly connected to human behavior and its accuracy is generally high because the data is generated for a purpose, such as the completion of telephone call or a c
信息和通信技术促进发展(ICT4D)学科在移动电话连接呈指数增长的情况下获得了牵引力。有大量的项目、服务、应用程序甚至政策旨在利用手机为社会的更广泛发展做出贡献。这与学术界对理解移动电话连接对发展的影响的兴趣密切相关。然而,直到最近,人们才开始注意到,在使用移动电话服务时,社会遗留下来的基本数据工件会带来与发展相关的问题。这些工件属于交易生成数据(Transaction Generated Data, TGD)一类,当某些事件(例如,当一个人打电话时)发生时,由移动电话运营商记录下来,用于计费和网络优化。考虑到产生的TGD的数量,它也属于大数据的范畴。大数据是一个无定形的类别,例如,它可以包括来自天文台的数据或20世纪以来所有数字化书籍的全文。与许多其他报告一样,2011年麦肯锡全球研究所关于大数据的报告在定义术语时只关注“大”:“大数据是指其规模超出典型数据库软件工具捕获、存储、管理和分析能力的数据集”(Manyika et al., 2011)。这个定义是主观的,它包含了一个不断变化的定义,即数据集需要多大才能被认为是大数据,同时隐含的假设是,随着技术的进步,符合大数据标准的数据集的规模也会增加。还需要注意的是,定义可能因行业而异,这取决于什么类型的软件工具是常用的,以及特定行业中常见的数据集的大小。有了这些注意事项,今天许多领域的大数据将从几十太字节到几千太字节不等。Gartner(2011)介绍了除了数量之外的其他重要定义特征,即速度和多样性。速度是指数据生成、评估和分析的速度。“多样性”一词包含了这样一个事实,即数据可以作为不同的媒体(文本、音频、视频)存在,并以不同的格式(结构化和非结构化)出现。价值是第四个定义特征,它承认大数据可能产生的潜在的高社会经济价值(Jones, 2012)。它的范围包括事务生成数据(TGD)类别,有时也被描述为“数据耗尽”。这个类别最早是在1991年讨论的,不过当时使用的术语是事务生成的信息。这个大数据子集的价值在于它与人类行为直接相关,而且由于数据是为了某种目的而产生的,例如完成电话呼叫或商业交易,因此其准确性通常很高。TGD具有更广泛发展的巨大潜力,并已被用于预测流感趋势、预测失业、了解社会关系和整体社会经济福利等。然而,与发达国家不同,发展中国家唯一具有广泛社会经济覆盖的综合大数据流是电信网络产生的数据流,因为商业银行和超市等无法触及大多数人。正如国际电联在《2013年衡量信息社会》报告中所指出的那样,尽管互联网接入在发展中经济体增长迅速,但截至2013年底,发展中经济体的总体家庭互联网普及率预计仅为28%,而发达经济体则接近80%。然而,全球基本移动用户几乎达到96%的峰值(ITU, 2013年)。因此,在短期内,与互联网无关的移动网络大数据是社会经济覆盖范围最广的。不仅在发达经济体,而且在发展中经济体,这种数据已经被用于发展和监测。因此本文的重点主要是针对移动网络大数据进行开发。本政策文件旨在启发发展中经济体的政策制定者,从移动网络TGD中提取有关移动性、连接性和消费的一系列行为见解。重要的是,本文还讨论了如何在交通、卫生和经济发展等多个政策领域利用这些见解。
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引用次数: 7
Globalization and Income Convergence 全球化与收入趋同
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2376446
Kaitlyn R. Harger, A. Young
The income convergence literature suggests that poor countries can catch-up to rich ones conditional on sharing certain characteristics with rich countries. Good institutions such as strong property rights and rule-of-law are key amongst those characteristics. From a policy perspective this is disheartening because economists have little understanding of how to transplant those institutions to developing countries. Worse, good informal institutions seem to be a necessary condition for formal institutions to "stick". However, to the extent that good institutions can arise as a "spontaneous order" from individuals interacting with one another, allowing for an "open society" may be an effective development policy. To evaluate this proposition we explore whether or not increased globalization fosters income convergence. Based on a panel of up to 184 countries covering the years 1970 to 2009 we conclude that it does. In particular, the social dimension (as opposed to the economic or political dimensions) of globalization is robustly related to income convergence.
有关收入趋同的文献表明,穷国可以在与富国共享某些特征的条件下赶上富国。良好的制度,如强有力的产权和法治是这些特征中的关键。从政策角度来看,这令人沮丧,因为经济学家对如何将这些制度移植到发展中国家知之甚少。更糟糕的是,良好的非正式制度似乎是正式制度“坚守”的必要条件。然而,在某种程度上,良好的制度可以作为个人相互作用的“自发秩序”而产生,允许“开放社会”可能是一种有效的发展政策。为了评估这一命题,我们探讨了全球化是否会促进收入趋同。根据对184个国家1970年至2009年的调查,我们得出了这样的结论。特别是,全球化的社会层面(相对于经济或政治层面)与收入趋同密切相关。
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引用次数: 2
Filtering German Economic Conditions from a Large Dataset: The New DIW Economic Barometer 从大数据集中过滤德国经济状况:新的DIW经济晴雨表
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2503892
Paul Viefers, Ferdinand Fichtner, Simon Junker, Maximilian Podstawski
This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new version, the resulting business cycle factor is based on more than 300 variables. The main methodological changes relate to (i) the estimation procedure, (ii) treatment of publication lags and missings, and (iii) the decomposition of the index into contributions from different sectors of the economy. Alongside several practical advantages, we also document a better historical nowcasting performance of the new index.
本文提出了DIW经济晴雨表的修订版本,DIW经济晴雨表是德国经济研究所(DIW柏林)的商业周期指数。与早期版本一样,我们提出了一个月频率的因子模型来过滤总体经济的潜在状态。在新版本中,由此产生的商业周期因子基于300多个变量。主要的方法变化涉及(i)估计程序,(ii)处理出版滞后和缺失,以及(iii)将指数分解为不同经济部门的贡献。除了几个实际优势外,我们还记录了新指数更好的历史临近预报性能。
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引用次数: 0
International Patenting Strategies with Heterogeneous Firms 异质性企业的国际专利战略
Pub Date : 2014-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2523438
Nikolas J. Zolas
This paper analyzes how firms decide where to patent in a heterogeneous firm model of trade with endogenous rival entry. In the model, innovating firms compete with rival firms on price, where rivals force the innovating firm to reduce markups and lower the innovating firm's probability of obtaining monopolistic profits. Patenting allows the innovating firm to reduce the number of rival rms by increasing their fixed overhead costs, thereby providing higher expected profits and increased markups from reduced competition. Countries with higher states of technology, more competition and better patent protection have a greater proportion of entrants who patent. Industries tend to follow a U-shaped pattern of patenting where industries with high heterogeneity in production and low substitution, along with industries with low heterogeneity in production and high substitution patent more frequently. Using a generalized framework of the model, I estimate market-based measures of country-level patent protection, which when compared with other IP indices, suggests that not enough international patenting is taking place. Finally, I test the predictions of the model using a newly available technology-to-industry concordance on bilateral patent flows and show that firms are increasingly sensitive to foreign IP protection. Countries that choose to maximize their IP protection can increase the number of foreign patents by almost 10%.
本文分析了在具有内生竞争对手进入的异质企业贸易模型中,企业如何决定在何处申请专利。在该模型中,创新企业与竞争对手进行价格竞争,竞争对手迫使创新企业降低加价,从而降低创新企业获得垄断利润的概率。专利允许创新企业通过增加固定间接成本来减少竞争对手的数量,从而提供更高的预期利润,并从减少竞争中获得更高的利润。技术水平较高、竞争更激烈和专利保护更好的国家,申请专利的进入者比例更大。生产异质性高、替代性低的行业,以及生产异质性低、替代性高的行业,其专利申请频率呈u型分布。利用该模型的广义框架,我估计了基于市场的国家级专利保护措施,与其他知识产权指数相比,这些措施表明,国际专利申请并不足够。最后,我使用一种最新的双边专利流动的技术-产业一致性来检验模型的预测,并表明企业对外国知识产权保护越来越敏感。选择最大限度地保护知识产权的国家可以将外国专利的数量增加近10%。
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引用次数: 6
Corporate Rebranding: An Integrative Review of Major Enablers and Barriers to the Rebranding Process 企业品牌重塑:品牌重塑过程的主要推动因素和障碍的综合审查
Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/ijmr.12020
Dale Miller, B. Merrilees, Raisa Yakimova
In the field of corporate rebranding, which is an emerging area of research, the literature consists largely of descriptive case studies that are scattered across diverse contexts. These studies take divergent theoretical perspectives that often inform only aspects of rebranding, leaving researchers and managers without a comprehensive understanding of the corporate rebranding process. In adopting a holistic theory of corporate rebranding to organize a review of the literature, this study aims to present an integrated review of the major enablers and barriers to corporate rebranding, with special attention to contextual factors. Through an examination of 76 cases in 61 articles, the paper contributes a new general model of corporate rebranding. Unlike previous models of corporate rebranding, the new model incorporates both single- and multi-phase enablers and barriers. Critical to successful corporate rebranding are the identification and application of six major enablers, including strong rebranding leadership and coordination among multiple functions and stakeholder groups. The new model suggests directions for future research, and the paper discusses how managers can use the model to inform rebranding practice and improve corporate rebranding outcomes.
在企业品牌重塑领域,这是一个新兴的研究领域,文献主要由分散在不同背景下的描述性案例研究组成。这些研究采用了不同的理论观点,往往只告知品牌重塑的各个方面,使研究人员和管理人员对企业品牌重塑过程没有全面的了解。在采用企业品牌重塑的整体理论来组织文献综述中,本研究旨在对企业品牌重塑的主要推动因素和障碍进行综合综述,特别关注语境因素。本文通过对61篇文章中76个案例的分析,提出了一种新的企业品牌重塑的通用模式。与以往的企业品牌重塑模式不同,新模式结合了单阶段和多阶段的推动因素和障碍。成功的企业品牌重塑的关键是识别和应用六个主要的促成因素,包括强大的品牌重塑领导力和多个职能和利益相关者群体之间的协调。新模型为未来的研究提出了方向,并讨论了管理者如何使用该模型为品牌重塑实践提供信息并改善企业品牌重塑结果。
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引用次数: 91
Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War 圆孔里的方钉:不平等、不满和内战
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/ISQU.12068
Halvard Buhaug, L. Cederman, K. Gleditsch
Much of the recent research on civil war treats explanations rooted in political and economic grievances with considerable suspicion and claims that there is little empirical evidence of any relationship between ethnicity or inequality and political violence. We argue that common indicators used in previous research, such as the ethno-linguistic fractionalization (ELF) and the Gini coefficient for income dispersion, fail to capture fundamental aspects of political exclusion and economic inequality that can motivate conflict. Drawing on insights from group-level research, we develop new country-level indices that directly reflect inequalities among ethnic groups, including political discrimination and wealth differentials along ethnic lines. Our analysis reveals that these theoretically informed country profiles are much better predictors of civil war onset than conventional inequality indicators, even when we control for a number of alternative factors potentially related to grievances or opportunities for conflict.
最近关于内战的许多研究都对根植于政治和经济不满的解释持相当怀疑的态度,并声称几乎没有经验证据表明种族或不平等与政治暴力之间存在任何关系。我们认为,以往研究中使用的常用指标,如民族语言分数化(ELF)和收入分散的基尼系数,未能捕捉到可能引发冲突的政治排斥和经济不平等的基本方面。根据群体层面研究的见解,我们开发了新的国家级指数,直接反映族裔群体之间的不平等,包括政治歧视和族裔之间的财富差异。我们的分析表明,与传统的不平等指标相比,这些理论上知情的国家情况更能预测内战的爆发,即使我们控制了一些可能与不满或冲突机会相关的其他因素。
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引用次数: 202
The Belgian Governement's Tender for the Press Distribution SGEI – Issues for Discussion 比利时政府招标的新闻发行SGEI -问题的讨论
Pub Date : 2014-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2432877
D. Geradin
Over the last few years, the European Commission adopted a number of important State aid decisions in the postal sector. One of these decisions concerned the compensation granted by the Belgian Government to bpost for the delivery of services of general economic interest (“SGEIs”) over 2013-2015. Among these SGEIs figure the early delivery of newspapers and the distribution of periodicals at reduced prices (the “Press Distribution SGEI”), which the Belgian Government considers as “particularly important to ensure a wide distribution of the written press throughout Belgium in order to enhance the level of information and diversity of opinion, and to foster public participation in the political debate.” As regards the Press Distribution SGEI, the Belgian authorities committed to organize a competitive, transparent and non-discriminatory tendering procedure with a view to award a service concession at national level by end of 2014 to the selected operator that will take over the provision of press distribution SGEI as of 1 January 2016. This paper addresses some of the key questions faced by the Belgian Governement with respect to the organisation of the tender for Press Distribution SGEI. Given the limited experience in tendering SGEIs in Europe, this is a challenging exercise, which the Commission will look at with a keen interest given its insistence that compensation for the provision of SGEIs be attributed through a tendering procedure. While the Altmark judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union (“CJEU”) suggested that tendering a SGEI may be one of the ways in which the compensation paid for the provision of this service could escape the State aid qualification, the Commission’s so-called “SGEI Package” makes it clear that the tendering of SGEIs is compulsory if the contracting authority wants to ensure that the compensation is not qualified as State aid. Against this background, this paper is divided in five sections. Section II briefly analyses the Altmark decision and the Commission’s SGEI package with a specific focus on the 2012 Communication of the Commission on the application of the European Union (“EU”) State aid rules to compensation granted for the provision of services of general economic interest (the “Communication”), which elaborates on the so-called Altmark conditions. Section III discusses some of the challenges suggested by international experience with respect to the organisation of tenders. As will be seen, tendering may be affected by the irrational behaviour of some tenderers (the so-called “winner’s curse”), as well as strategic behaviour (“moral hazard”) with the risk that the service is not provided at the right level of quality or is even discontinued. Section IV analyses these challenges in the context of the Belgian tender for the Press Distribution SGEI and suggests ways in which they can be addressed. Finally, Section V briefly concludes.
在过去几年中,欧洲联盟委员会在邮政部门通过了若干重要的国家援助决定。其中一项决定涉及比利时政府在2013-2015年期间对提供一般经济利益服务(“SGEIs”)的哨所给予的补偿。在这些SGEI中,包括报纸的早期交付和期刊的降价分发(“新闻分发SGEI”),比利时政府认为这“对于确保书面新闻在比利时全境广泛分发,以提高信息水平和意见多样性,并促进公众参与政治辩论特别重要”。关于新闻分发SGEI,比利时当局承诺组织一个具有竞争性、透明度和非歧视的招标程序,以期在2014年底之前将国家一级的服务特许权授予选定的运营商,该运营商将从2016年1月1日起接管新闻分发SGEI的提供。本文论述了比利时政府在组织新闻发行SGEI招标方面所面临的一些关键问题。鉴于在欧洲招标特殊环境投资工具的经验有限,这是一项具有挑战性的工作。鉴于委员会坚持要求通过招标程序提供特殊环境投资工具的补偿,委员会将非常感兴趣地对此进行研究。虽然欧盟法院(“CJEU”)的Altmark判决表明,招标SGEI可能是为提供这种服务而支付的补偿不符合国家援助资格的方式之一,但委员会所谓的“SGEI一揽子计划”明确指出,如果合同当局希望确保赔偿不符合国家援助资格,则SGEI招标是强制性的。在此背景下,本文分为五个部分。第二部分简要分析了Altmark案的决定和欧盟委员会的SGEI一揽子计划,并特别关注欧盟委员会2012年关于欧盟(“欧盟”)国家援助规则适用于提供具有一般经济利益的服务的补偿的通报(“通报”),该通报详细阐述了所谓的Altmark条件。第三节讨论了国际经验在组织投标方面提出的一些挑战。正如将看到的,招标可能受到一些投标者的非理性行为(所谓的“赢家的诅咒”)以及战略行为(“道德风险”)的影响,其风险是提供的服务没有达到适当的质量水平,甚至停止。第四节在比利时投标新闻发行SGEI的背景下分析了这些挑战,并提出了解决这些挑战的方法。最后,第五节作简要总结。
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引用次数: 0
International Labour Mobility and Child Work in Developing Countries 发展中国家的国际劳动力流动和童工问题
Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2427785
Anna S. De Paoli, M. Mendola
This paper investigates the labor market effect of international migration on child work in countries of origin. We use an original cross-country survey dataset, which combines information on international migration with detailed individual-level data on child labor at age 5-14 in a wide range of developing countries. By exploiting both within- and cross-country variation and controlling for country fixed effects, we find a strong empirical regularity about the role of international mobility of workers in reducing child labor in disadvantaged households through changes in the local labor market.
本文研究了国际移民对原籍国童工劳动的劳动力市场影响。我们使用了一个原始的跨国调查数据集,该数据集结合了国际移民信息和许多发展中国家5-14岁童工的详细个人数据。通过利用国内和跨国差异并控制国家固定效应,我们发现,通过当地劳动力市场的变化,工人的国际流动在减少弱势家庭童工方面的作用具有很强的经验规律性。
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引用次数: 2
Wächst Deutschland auf Kosten der übrigen Welt? (Does Germany Grow at the Expense of the Rest of the World?) Wächst Deutschland auf Kosten der <s:1> brigen Welt?(德国的增长是否以牺牲世界其他地区为代价?)
Pub Date : 2014-03-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2410137
G. Erber
German Abstract: Vor kurzem wurde Deutschland vom US Finanzminister Lew wegen seiner hohen Leistungsbilanzuberschusse kritisiert. Diese seien eine der Quellen fur die weiterhin andauernden strukturellen Ungleichgewichte der Weltwirtschaft. Die Europaische Kommission hat ebenfalls vor kurzem eine grundliche Analyse zu diesem Thema veroffentlicht. Im Unterschied hierzu verwendet dieser Beitrag einen Demand Growth Accounting Ansatz, um die jeweiligen Beitrage der Binnennachfrage sowie des Ausenbeitrags zum Wirtschaftswachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts fur die zuruckliegenden zweieinhalb Jahrzehnte, d.h. von 1992 bis 2013 plus der Prognosen fur dieses und das kommende Jahr basierend auf der aktuellsten Prognose der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der fuhrenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute dafur heranzuziehen. Damit soll etwas Licht in das Dunkel gebracht werden, inwieweit die Handelsbilanzuberschusse in der Tat der wesentliche Faktor fur das Wirtschaftswachstum Deutschlands anzusehen sind. Die Ergebnisse sind einigermasen uberraschend, wenn man die oben genannten Vorwurfe zur Grundlage nimmt. In den 1990er Jahren war das Wirtschaftswachstum ausschlieslich durch die Binnennachfrage bestimmt. Dies anderte sich dann in der Periode 2001 bis 2008 deutlich, als die gemeinsame Wahrung mit den andren Mitgliedslandern der Eurozone eingefuhrt worden ist. In dieser Periode war der Ausenbeitrag der Hauptfaktor fur das Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland. Nach 2008 jedoch kehrte die deutsche Wirtschaft wieder auf einen vorrangig durch die Binnennachfrage bestimmten Wachstumskurs zuruck. Legt man die aktuellen Prognosen fur dieses und das kommende Jahr zugrunde, dann wird derzeit der Ausenbeitrag keinen nennenswerten Beitrag zum deutschen Wirtschaftswachstum leisten. Eine wesentliche Ursache liegt darin, dass die Aus- und Einfuhrentwicklung hochgradig miteinander korreliert sind. Eine wesentliche Ursache hierfur liegt vermutlich in der dramatischen Restrukturierung der deutschen Wirtschaft insbesondere der exportorientierten Industrien in der Vergangenheit. Durch globales Sourcing und insbesondere neuer regionaler Wertschopfungsketten zwischen Deutschland und den osteuropaischen Landern konnte die deutsche Industrie ihre internationale Wettbewerbsfahigkeit zuruckgewinnen. Durch den intensiven Einsatz von Outsourcing und Offshore Outsourcing wurden diejenigen Teile der Wertschopfungskette ins Ausland verlagert wo niedrigere Lohnkosten masgeblich zu niedrigeren Gesamtkosten der deutschen Unternehmen beitrugen. Dieser Vorgang spielte eine wesentlich bedeutendere Rolle als die inlandischen Arbeitsmarktreformen der Agenda 2010. Deutschland profitiert seither von dem deutlich hoheren globalen Wirtschaftswachstum im Welthandel im Vergleich zum Binnenmarkt und seiner Spezialisierung seiner Industrie insbesondere auf Investitionsguter und Automobile der Premiumklasse. Der jetzt wieder deutlich mehr von der Binnennachfrage getriebene Wachstumsprozess ist im Wesentlichen auf jetzt wi
这些发展的原因可能是由于德国经济特别是出口导向型工业的大规模重组。由于全球采购,特别是以德国和东欧国家为中心的新的区域价值链集群,德国工业重新获得了以前面临风险的国际竞争力。通过广泛的外包和离岸外包,将价值链的那些部分转移到国外,在那里较低的工资成本有助于降低德国公司的整体成本结构,德国在2008年之后复苏。这一进程可能比《2010年议程》中的国内劳动力市场改革更为重要。由于德国在投资品和高端汽车方面的特殊专业化模式,德国参与了全球贸易增长的显著提高。目前国内需求带动的增长是可能的,因为目前国内工资和收入的增长速度更快,正回到上世纪90年代常见的增长模式。目前向可再生能源的转变甚至可能在一段时间内成为另一个关键驱动因素。从这种做法可以得出的结论是,需求拉动型增长和出口拉动型增长随着时间的推移而波动,但在德国增长模式中不存在长期的出口拉动型增长模式。
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引用次数: 0
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