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Heterogeneity and Asymmetric Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Loan-to-Value Limits 贷款价值比限额变化的异质性和不对称宏观经济效应
Pub Date : 2019-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3388199
J. de Jong, Emmanuel de Veirman
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of changes in loan-to-value limits using an approach that involves the cross-sectional loan-to-value distribution and does not require that a limit is actually in place. We show that the effects are asymmetric and non-linear as tighter limits constrain a larger fraction of borrowers. Symmetry is a good approximation when the limit is tight but not at other points. We find that an increase in heterogeneity can substantially increase the effects of a change in loan-to-value caps. We document that if one abstracts from borrower heterogeneity, one understates the size of the effects of LTV limits when the limit lies above the average LTV.
我们使用一种涉及横截面贷款价值比分布的方法来估计贷款价值比限制变化的宏观经济影响,而不要求实际存在限制。我们表明,随着更严格的限制限制了更大比例的借款人,这种影响是不对称和非线性的。当极限很紧时,对称是一个很好的近似,但在其他点则不然。我们发现,异质性的增加可以大大增加贷款与价值比率上限变化的影响。我们证明,如果一个人从借款人的异质性中抽象出来,当极限高于平均LTV时,一个人低估了LTV限制的影响大小。
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引用次数: 1
Changes in the Effects of Bank Lending Shocks and Development of Public Debt Markets 银行贷款冲击效应的变化与公债市场的发展
Pub Date : 2019-05-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3383927
Sangyup Choi
This paper investigates whether the effect of bank lending shocks has changed over time using a sign-restriction Vector Autoregression approach. To the extent to which the effect of bank lending shocks depends critically on firms’ ability to access alternative sources of financing, the rapid development in public debt markets from the 1980s might have weakened this effect. Indeed, we confirm that the effect of bank lending shocks on output has decreased significantly since the 1980s. Consistent with the financial innovation-based explanation of such reduced effects of bank lending shocks, we find that their effects on corporate bond markets have substantially changed as well. These changes in the substitutability between loans and bonds via financial innovation are key to understanding the reduced effect of bank lending shocks. Supporting our identifying assumptions regarding firms’ ability to access alternative sources of financing, the substantial decline in the effects of bank lending shocks is only observed on investment, not consumption.
本文使用符号约束向量自回归方法研究银行贷款冲击的影响是否随时间而变化。银行贷款冲击的影响在很大程度上取决于企业获得其他融资来源的能力,1980年代以来公共债务市场的迅速发展可能削弱了这种影响。事实上,我们证实,自20世纪80年代以来,银行贷款冲击对产出的影响已显著下降。与基于金融创新的银行贷款冲击效应降低的解释一致,我们发现它们对公司债券市场的影响也发生了实质性变化。通过金融创新,贷款和债券之间可替代性的这些变化是理解银行贷款冲击效应减弱的关键。支持我们关于企业获得替代融资来源的能力的确定假设,银行贷款冲击影响的大幅下降只观察到投资,而不是消费。
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引用次数: 2
Simultaneity of Interbank Market Rates – Theory and Methodological Implications 银行间市场利率的同步性-理论和方法的影响
Pub Date : 2019-04-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3082784
Christoph Siebenbrunner, Michael Sigmund
We study price formation on interbank markets. We derive insights from a theoretical model that have important implications for empirical applications. In our theoretical model banks compete on lending and deposit rates in a horizontally differentiated oligopoly. Banks have to close funding gaps or surpluses, but the model allows them to hold both interbank assets and liabilities, a behavior that has been extensively documented empirically. We show the existence of a Nash equilibrium and provide conditions for its uniqueness. The key insight from the theoretical model is that interbank lending and deposit rates are determined simultaneously. We document the presence of simultaneity in an example estimation using real-world data. We show that this simultaneity would induce an economically significant bias into the estimations and lead to flawed inference if it was not accounted for. We thus advocate testing for simultaneity when performing empirical analyses of interbank market rates or spreads.
我们研究银行间市场的价格形成。我们从理论模型中获得了对实证应用具有重要意义的见解。在我们的理论模型中,银行在横向分化的寡头垄断中竞争存贷款利率。银行必须填补资金缺口或盈余,但该模型允许它们同时持有银行间资产和负债,这种行为已被广泛记录在案。我们证明了纳什均衡的存在性,并给出了其唯一性的条件。该理论模型的关键观点是,银行间贷款利率和存款利率是同时确定的。我们在使用真实世界数据的示例估计中记录了同时性的存在。我们表明,这种同时性会在估计中引起经济上显著的偏差,如果不加以考虑,就会导致有缺陷的推断。因此,我们主张在对银行间市场利率或价差进行实证分析时进行同时性测试。
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引用次数: 2
Research on the Efficiency of Commercial Banks in China: Based on Two-Stage FDH Method 中国商业银行效率研究——基于两阶段外佣法
Pub Date : 2019-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3375399
Xiuhua Wang, Panpan Fu, Yonggang Tian
The evaluation of bank efficiency is the premise and guidance of high-quality development of the banking industry. On the basis of the existing research on bank efficiency, the operation process of banks is divided into two stages of saving collection and making profits. Based on the conditions of free disposal and the assumption of intermediate connection, the two-stage FDH Production Possibility Set is constructed, and then we build the two-stage FDH model. This model can not only avoid the inconsistency of the estimator of DEA method due to strict assumption but also improve the resolution of the traditional FDH .The efficiency of 57 commercial banks in China from 2013 to 2017 was calculated by using the traditional FDH and two-stage FDH method. The results show that compared with the traditional FDH method, the two-stage FDH method has a great improvement on the resolution to the bank, and can get the benchmark based on the real subsystem of the evaluated bank, and excavate the information of further improving the bank efficiency. The results also show that state-owned banks are more efficient than joint-stock banks, and the efficiency of these two is significantly higher than that of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks.
银行效率评价是银行业高质量发展的前提和指导。在现有银行效率研究的基础上,将银行的经营过程分为储蓄收缴和盈利两个阶段。基于自由处置条件和中间连接假设,构造了两阶段外佣生产可能性集,进而建立了两阶段外佣模型。该模型既避免了DEA方法由于假设严格而导致估计结果不一致的问题,又提高了传统外佣的分辨率。采用传统外佣法和两阶段外佣法对2013 - 2017年中国57家商业银行的外佣效率进行了计算。结果表明,与传统的FDH方法相比,两阶段FDH方法对银行的分辨率有了很大的提高,可以根据被评价银行的真实子系统得到基准,挖掘出进一步提高银行效率的信息。结果还表明,国有银行的效率高于股份制银行,二者的效率显著高于城市商业银行和农村商业银行。
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引用次数: 1
Capital Flows: The Role of Bank and Nonbank Balance Sheets 资本流动:银行和非银行资产负债表的作用
Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781498311472.001
Y. Hashimoto, Signe Krogstrup
This paper assesses the role of bank and nonbank financial institutions' balance sheet foreign exposures and risk management practices in driving capital flow responses to global risk. Using a unique and previously unexplored dataset on domestic and cross border balance sheet positions of financial institutions collected by the IMF, we show that the response of overall capital flows to global risk shocks is associated with the on-balance sheet foreign exposures of nonbanks, but not with that of banks. A possible interpretation is that risk-averse and dynamically optimizing nonbanks reduce their foreign risk exposure when global risk perceptions increase, leading to capital flows, while banks tend to be hedged against these risks off balance sheet. In advanced countries, the findings suggest that nonbank portfolio adjustment to changing risk conditions may take place through derivatives transactions with banks, the hedging practices of which trigger bank related capital flows rather than portfolio flows.
本文评估了银行和非银行金融机构的资产负债表对外敞口和风险管理实践在推动资本流动应对全球风险方面的作用。利用国际货币基金组织收集的关于金融机构国内和跨境资产负债表头寸的独特且未开发的数据集,我们表明,总体资本流动对全球风险冲击的反应与非银行机构的资产负债表外敞口有关,但与银行无关。一种可能的解释是,当全球风险感知增加时,风险厌恶和动态优化的非银行机构会减少其外国风险敞口,从而导致资本流动,而银行则倾向于在资产负债表外对冲这些风险。在发达国家,研究结果表明,非银行投资组合对不断变化的风险条件的调整可能通过与银行的衍生品交易来实现,这种对冲做法触发了与银行相关的资本流动,而不是投资组合流动。
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引用次数: 3
Bank Competition and Firm Access to Credit: Bank-Firm Level Evidence from Europe 银行竞争与企业获得信贷:来自欧洲的银行与企业层面的证据
Pub Date : 2019-03-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3258485
Pietro Grandi, Caroline Ninou Bozou
We examine the impact of bank competition on firms' access to credit using a large panel of 900 banks matched to almost 60.000 firms across the euro area over the period 2010-2016. Results provide empirical support for the market power hypothesis whereby low inter-bank competition worsens firms' credit conditions. Specifically, we find that higher bank market power is associated with lower short and long-term bank credit, higher reliance on trade credit and higher funding costs for corporate borrowers. Furthermore, the effect of bank competition is heterogeneous across firms and banks. On the one hand, high bank market power is especially detrimental for small and opaque firms, suggesting that low competition exacerbates the financial constraint of borrowers most exposed to information problems. On the other hand, the reduction in credit availability associated with high market power is attenuated for firms that borrow from small and local community banks, a finding consistent with the information hypothesis, whereby low competition increases banks’ incentive to supply relationship loans. On balance, however, the predominance of medium-large commercial banks in our sample determines that the overall effect of low inter-bank competition on credit conditions is unequivocally adverse for most firms, i.e. the market power effect outweighs the information effect. This evidence contributes to previous research on bank competition, firms’ credit constraint and relationship lending, and has implications for competition policy. Indeed, with respect to the prospect of greater banking consolidation in the European Union, our results suggest that considerations of efficiency and financial stability should be weighed against the potential negative consequences in terms of firms’ access to credit.
我们研究了银行竞争对企业获得信贷的影响,使用了一个由900家银行组成的大型小组,该小组与2010-2016年期间欧元区近6万家公司相匹配。研究结果为市场力量假说提供了实证支持,即银行间竞争水平低会使企业信贷状况恶化。具体而言,我们发现,银行市场支撑力越强,短期和长期银行信贷越低,对贸易信贷的依赖程度越高,企业借款人的融资成本越高。此外,银行竞争的影响在企业和银行之间是异质的。一方面,高银行市场支撑力对小型和不透明的公司尤其不利,这表明低竞争加剧了最容易暴露于信息问题的借款人的财务约束。另一方面,对于从小型和当地社区银行借款的公司来说,与高市场支配力相关的信贷可用性减少是减弱的,这一发现与信息假设一致,即低竞争增加了银行提供关系贷款的动机。然而,总的来说,我们样本中大中型商业银行的优势决定了低银行间竞争对信贷条件的总体影响对大多数公司来说是明确不利的,即市场力量效应超过了信息效应。这一证据有助于以往关于银行竞争、企业信用约束和关系借贷的研究,并对竞争政策有启示。事实上,就欧盟银行业整合的前景而言,我们的研究结果表明,效率和金融稳定的考虑应该与企业获得信贷的潜在负面影响相权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Mortgage Loss Severities: What Keeps Them so High? 抵押贷款损失严重程度:是什么让它们如此之高?
Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.19
Xudong An, Larry Cordell
Mortgage loss-given-default (LGD) increased significantly when house prices plummeted and delinquencies rose during the financial crisis, but it has remained over 40 percent in recent years despite a strong housing recovery. Our results indicate that the sustained high LGDs post-crisis are due to a combination of an overhang of crisis-era foreclosures and prolonged foreclosure timelines, which have offset higher sales recoveries. Simulations show that cutting foreclosure timelines by one year would cause LGD to decrease by 5?8 percentage points, depending on the trade-off between lower liquidation expenses and lower sales recoveries. Using difference-in-differences tests, we also find that recent consumer protection programs have extended foreclosure timelines and increased loss severities in spite of their benefits of increasing loan modifications and enhancing consumer protections.
在金融危机期间,当房价暴跌和拖欠率上升时,抵押贷款违约损失(LGD)大幅上升,但近年来尽管楼市强劲复苏,LGD仍保持在40%以上。我们的研究结果表明,危机后持续的高lgd是由于危机时期止赎的过剩和止赎时间的延长,这抵消了更高的销售复苏。模拟显示,将止赎时间缩短一年将导致LGD减少5%。8个百分点,取决于较低的清算费用和较低的销售回收率之间的权衡。使用差异中的差异测试,我们还发现,最近的消费者保护计划延长了止赎时限,增加了损失的严重程度,尽管它们增加了贷款修改和加强消费者保护的好处。
{"title":"Mortgage Loss Severities: What Keeps Them so High?","authors":"Xudong An, Larry Cordell","doi":"10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.19","url":null,"abstract":"Mortgage loss-given-default (LGD) increased significantly when house prices plummeted and delinquencies rose during the financial crisis, but it has remained over 40 percent in recent years despite a strong housing recovery. Our results indicate that the sustained high LGDs post-crisis are due to a combination of an overhang of crisis-era foreclosures and prolonged foreclosure timelines, which have offset higher sales recoveries. Simulations show that cutting foreclosure timelines by one year would cause LGD to decrease by 5?8 percentage points, depending on the trade-off between lower liquidation expenses and lower sales recoveries. Using difference-in-differences tests, we also find that recent consumer protection programs have extended foreclosure timelines and increased loss severities in spite of their benefits of increasing loan modifications and enhancing consumer protections.","PeriodicalId":11689,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82108517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial Stability 央行数字货币与金融稳定
Pub Date : 2019-02-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3330914
Young sik Kim, Ohik Kwon
We examine the implications of central bank digital currency (CBDC) for financial stability using a monetary general equilibrium model in which (i) banks provide liquidity in the form of fiat currency, and (ii) commercial bank deposits compete with the central bank deposits in CBDC account. CBDC is a national currency-denominated, interest-bearing and account-based claim on the central bank. People have access to CBDC via direct deposit at the central bank. Claims on specific agents cannot be traded across locations due to limited communication and hence in the event of relocation an agent needs to withdraw deposits in the form of universally verified paper currency. Claims on interest-bearing CBDC is not subject to limited communication problem in the sense that it is also universally verified across locations as an account-based legal tender. The introduction of deposits in CBDC account essentially decreases supply of private credit by commercial banks, which raises the nominal interest rate and hence lowers a commercial bank's reserve-deposit ratio. This has negative effects on financial stability by increasing the likelihood of bank panic in which commercial banks are short of cash reserves to pay out to depositors. However, once the central bank can lend all the deposits in CBDC account to commercial banks, an increase in the quantity of CBDC which does not require reserve holdings can enhance financial stability by essentially increasing supply of private credit and hence lowering nominal interest rate.
我们使用货币一般均衡模型来研究中央银行数字货币(CBDC)对金融稳定的影响,其中(i)银行以法定货币的形式提供流动性,(ii)商业银行存款与中央银行在CBDC账户中的存款竞争。CBDC是一种以国家货币计价的、计息的、以账户为基础的对央行的债权。人们可以通过在央行直接存款的方式获得CBDC。由于通信有限,对特定代理的索赔不能跨地点交易,因此在搬迁的情况下,代理需要以普遍验证的纸币形式提取存款。对有息CBDC的索赔不受有限的沟通问题的影响,因为它也作为一种基于账户的法定货币在各地得到普遍验证。CBDC账户存款的引入实质上减少了商业银行的私人信贷供应,从而提高了名义利率,从而降低了商业银行的存款准备金率。这对金融稳定产生了负面影响,因为它增加了银行恐慌的可能性,在这种情况下,商业银行缺乏现金储备,无法支付给储户。然而,一旦中央银行可以将CBDC账户中的所有存款借给商业银行,增加不需要储备的CBDC数量可以通过本质上增加私人信贷供应从而降低名义利率来增强金融稳定。
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引用次数: 31
Complexity in Large U.S. Banks 美国大型银行的复杂性
Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3342464
L. Goldberg, April Meehl
While both size and complexity are important for the largest U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), specific types of complexity and their patterns across banks are not well understood. We introduce a range of measures of organizational, business, and geographic complexity. Comparing 2007 with 2017, we show that large U.S. BHCs remain very complex, with some declines along organizational and geographical complexity dimensions. The numbers of legal entities within some large BHCs have fallen. By contrast, the multiple industries spanned by legal entities within the BHCs have shifted more than they have declined, especially within the financial sector. Nonfinancial entities within U.S. BHCs still tilt heavily toward real-estate-related businesses and span numerous other industries. Fewer large BHCs have global affiliates, and the geographic span of the most complex has declined. Favorable tax treatment locations still attract a significant share of the foreign bank and nonbank entities, while fewer legal entities are present in informationally opaque locations.
虽然规模和复杂性对美国最大的银行控股公司(BHCs)来说都很重要,但银行间的具体复杂性类型及其模式还没有得到很好的理解。我们介绍了一系列组织、业务和地理复杂性的度量。与2007年相比,我们发现美国大型bhc仍然非常复杂,在组织和地理复杂性方面有所下降。一些大型bhc的法律实体数量已经下降。相比之下,BHCs内部的法律实体所跨越的多个行业的变化幅度大于它们的下降幅度,尤其是在金融领域。美国bhc内部的非金融实体仍然严重倾向于房地产相关业务,并横跨许多其他行业。拥有全球分支机构的大型BHCs数量减少,最复杂业务的地理跨度也有所缩小。优惠的税收待遇地区仍然吸引了大量的外国银行和非银行实体,而在信息不透明的地区,法人实体较少。
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引用次数: 8
The Effects of the Eurosystem's App on Euro Area Bank Lending: Letting Different Data Speak 欧元体系应用程序对欧元区银行贷款的影响:让不同的数据说话
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3473021
Barno Blaes, Björn Kraaz, C. Offermanns
We study the implications of the Eurosystem's expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) for the bank lending business of euro area banks with euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs) using microeconometric matching techniques. Based on confidential bank-level data on quantitative balance sheet items and interest rates as well as on qualitative survey responses to the Eurosystem's Bank Lending Survey, we identify the exposure of banks to the APP and corresponding effects on loan growth. We find that the APP was effective in stimulating the lending activity with NFCs for a subset of relatively sound banks. At the same time, our results show that there is a non-negligible number of banks with less healthy balance sheets which could not transfer the APP stimulus into more lending. Instead, such banks appear to have used the APP stimulus for consolidating their balance sheets, thereby also reducing their lending business with NFCs. This confirms the importance of accounting for the large degree of heterogeneity in the euro area banking sector in analyses of the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.
我们使用微观计量匹配技术研究欧元体系扩大的资产购买计划(APP)对欧元区银行与欧元区非金融公司(nfc)的银行贷款业务的影响。基于银行层面的量化资产负债表项目和利率的机密数据,以及对欧元体系银行贷款调查的定性调查回应,我们确定了银行对APP的敞口及其对贷款增长的相应影响。我们发现,APP有效地刺激了一部分相对健全的银行与nfc的贷款活动。与此同时,我们的研究结果表明,有相当数量的银行资产负债表不太健康,无法将刺激计划转化为更多的贷款。相反,这些银行似乎利用了刺激计划来巩固其资产负债表,从而也减少了与nfc的贷款业务。这证实了在分析货币政策措施的有效性时,考虑欧元区银行业很大程度上的异质性的重要性。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
ERN: Commercial Banks (Topic)
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