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Kernel Estimation for Panel Data with Heterogeneous Dynamics 非均匀动态面板数据的核估计
Pub Date : 2018-02-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3128885
R. Okui, Takahide Yanagi
This paper proposes nonparametric kernel-smoothing estimation for panel data to examine the degree of heterogeneity across cross-sectional units. We first estimate the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations for each unit and then apply kernel smoothing to compute their density functions. The dependence of the kernel estimator on bandwidth makes asymptotic bias of very high order affect the required condition on the relative magnitudes of the cross-sectional sample size (N) and the time-series length (T). In particular, it makes the condition on N and T stronger and more complicated than those typically observed in the long-panel literature without kernel smoothing. We also consider a split-panel jackknife method to correct bias and construction of confidence intervals. An empirical application illustrates our procedure.
本文提出了面板数据的非参数核平滑估计,以检查跨横截面单位的异质性程度。我们首先估计每个单元的样本均值、自协方差和自相关性,然后应用核平滑来计算它们的密度函数。核估计量对带宽的依赖性使得非常高阶的渐近偏差影响截面样本量相对大小(N)和时间序列长度(T)的所需条件。特别是,它使N和T上的条件比没有核平滑的长面板文献中通常观察到的条件更强、更复杂。我们还考虑了一种分裂面板折刀法来纠正偏差和构建置信区间。一个实证应用说明了我们的方法。
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引用次数: 13
Nonparametric Demand Estimation in Differentiated Products Markets 差异化产品市场中的非参数需求估计
Pub Date : 2018-01-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3134152
Giovanni Compiani
I develop and apply a nonparametric approach to estimate demand in differentiated products markets. Estimating demand flexibly is key to addressing many questions in economics that hinge on the shape - and notably the curvature - of market demand functions. My approach applies to standard discrete choice settings, but accommodates a broader range of consumer behaviors and preferences, including complementarities across goods, consumer inattention, and consumer loss aversion. Further, no distributional assumptions are made on the unobservables and only limited functional form restrictions are imposed. Using California grocery store data, I apply my approach to perform two counterfactual exercises: quantifying the pass-through of a tax, and assessing how much the multi-product nature of sellers contributes to markups. In both cases, I find that estimating demand flexibly has a significant impact on the results relative to a standard random coefficients discrete choice model, and I highlight how the outcomes relate to the estimated shape of the demand functions.
我开发并应用了一种非参数方法来估计差异化产品市场的需求。灵活估计需求是解决许多经济学问题的关键,这些问题取决于市场需求函数的形状,尤其是曲率。我的方法适用于标准的离散选择设置,但适用于更广泛的消费者行为和偏好,包括商品的互补性、消费者的不注意和消费者的损失厌恶。此外,没有对不可观测的分布假设,只施加有限的功能形式限制。利用加州杂货店的数据,我运用我的方法进行了两个反事实的练习:量化税收的传递,以及评估卖家的多产品性质对加价的贡献。在这两种情况下,我发现灵活估计需求对相对于标准随机系数离散选择模型的结果有显著影响,并且我强调了结果如何与需求函数的估计形状相关。
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引用次数: 12
Estimating Inequality of Opportunities in Punjab (Pakistan): A Non Parametric Approach 估计旁遮普省(巴基斯坦)的机会不平等:一个非参数方法
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3213926
Zahid Pervaiz, Shahla Akram
This paper attempts to estimate inequality of opportunities in Punjab, Pakistan by using non-parametric approach. Household level data of Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014 has been analyzed for this purpose. Household head’s income has been taken as an outcome. Three parental characteristics of household head have been used as circumstances. These characteristics include region of residence (rural/urban), wealth status and education level of household head’s father. Equalization of circumstances has been done by dividing our sample into different groups on the basis of above mentioned circumstances. Then within-group and among-groups inequality of income has been calculated. Within-group inequality has been attributed to the differences in the efforts of household heads. Among-group inequality has been attributed to the difference of circumstances and has been termed as inequality of opportunities. Our results indicate that up to 28% variation in income is due to the differences of circumstances. Among different circumstances, father’s education has the most significant contribution in explaining the variation of income of household heads. The study highlights the significance and need of compensatory government policies to cope with the problem of inequality of opportunities in Punjab (Pakistan). Provision of equal access to educational opportunities for all segments of the society is recommended as an important public policy measure to mitigate inequality of opportunities.
本文试图用非参数方法估计巴基斯坦旁遮普省的机会不平等。为此对2014年多指标类集调查的户级数据进行分析。家庭户主的收入被作为结果。家庭户主的三个父母特征被用作环境。这些特征包括户主父亲的居住地区(农村/城市)、财富状况和教育水平。根据上述情况将我们的样本分成不同的组,从而实现了情况的均衡。然后计算出群体内和群体间的收入不平等。群体内部的不平等被归因于户主努力的差异。群体之间的不平等被归因于环境的差异,并被称为机会的不平等。我们的研究结果表明,高达28%的收入差异是由于环境的差异。在不同情况下,父亲受教育程度对户主收入变化的影响最为显著。该研究强调了补偿性政府政策的重要性和必要性,以应对旁遮普省(巴基斯坦)的机会不平等问题。建议为社会各阶层提供平等的受教育机会,作为减轻机会不平等的一项重要公共政策措施。
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引用次数: 13
A Nonparametric Local Volatility Model for Swaptions Smile 交换Smile的非参数局部波动率模型
Pub Date : 2017-08-11 DOI: 10.21314/JCF.2018.343
D. Gatarek, J. Jabłecki
We propose a nonparametric local volatility Cheyette model and apply it to pricing interest rate swaptions. Concretely, given market prices of swaptions, we show how to construct a unique diffusion process consistent with these prices. We then link the resulting local volatility to the dynamics of the entire interest rate curve. The model preserves completeness and allows consistent pricing of illiquid, out-of-the-money and exotic interest rate products. The model is relatively straightforward to implement and calibrate and less involved than stochastic volatility approaches.
提出了一种非参数局部波动率Cheyette模型,并将其应用于利率掉期定价。具体而言,在给定互换市场价格的情况下,我们展示了如何构建一个与这些价格相一致的唯一扩散过程。然后,我们将由此产生的局部波动与整个利率曲线的动态联系起来。该模型保持了完整性,并允许对非流动性、非货币性和外来利率产品进行一致的定价。与随机波动率方法相比,该模型的实现和校准相对简单,而且涉及较少。
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引用次数: 4
A Note on the Use of the Bootstrap for Cost Effectiveness Analysis. 关于在成本效益分析中使用自举法的说明。
Pub Date : 2017-01-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2994865
Eduardo Fé, S. Peters
This note reconciles existing evidence on the abilities of the bootstrap with its use in the cost-effectiveness literature. We emphasise the role played by pivotal statistics to explain the ability of the bootstrap to provide asymptotic refinements for the Incremental Net Benefit statistic. The discussion is illustrated with a Monte Carlo experiment.
本说明将关于自助能力的现有证据与其在成本效益文献中的应用进行了协调。我们强调关键统计所起的作用,以解释自举为增量净效益统计提供渐近改进的能力。用蒙特卡罗实验说明了这一讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Two-Way Exclusion Restrictions in Models with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects 异质性治疗效果模型的双向排除限制
Pub Date : 2016-04-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2761986
Shenglong Liu, Ismael Mourifié, Yuanyuan Wan
In this paper, we propose a novel method to identify the conditional average treatment effect partial derivative (CATE-PD) in an environment in which the treatment is endogenous, the treatment effect is heterogeneous, the candidate 'instrumental variables' can be correlated with latent errors, and the treatment selection does not need to be (weakly) monotone. We show that CATE-PD is point-identified under mild conditions if two-way exclusion restrictions exist: (a) an outcome-exclusive variable, which affects the treatment but is excluded from the potential outcome equation, and (b) a treatment-exclusive variable, which affects the potential outcome but is excluded from the selection equation. We also propose an asymptotically normal two-step estimator and illustrate our method by investigating how the return to education varies across regions at different levels of development in China.
在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来识别条件平均治疗效果偏导数(ate - pd),其中治疗是内源性的,治疗效果是异质的,候选的“工具变量”可以与潜在误差相关,并且治疗选择不需要(弱)单调。我们表明,如果存在双向排除限制,则在轻度条件下,CATE-PD是点识别的:(a)影响治疗但被排除在潜在结果方程之外的结果排除变量,以及(b)影响潜在结果但被排除在选择方程之外的治疗排除变量。我们还提出了一个渐近正态两步估计量,并通过调查中国不同发展水平地区的教育回报差异来说明我们的方法。
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引用次数: 3
Nonparametric Identification of Dynamic Games with Multiple Equilibria and Unobserved Heterogeneity 具有多均衡和未观察异质性的动态博弈的非参数辨识
Pub Date : 2016-03-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2757272
Ruli Xiao
This paper provides sufficient conditions for non-parametrically identifying dynamic games with incomplete information, allowing for both multiple equilibria and unobserved heterogeneity. The identification proceeds in two steps. The first step mainly involves identifying the equilibrium conditional choice probabilities and the state transitions using results developed in the measurement error literature. The existing measurement error literature relies on monotonicity assumptions to determine the order of the latent types. This paper, in contrast, explores the identification structure to match the order, which is important for identifying the payoff primitives. The second step follows existing literature to identify the payoff parameters based on the equilibrium conditions with exclusion restrictions. Multiple equilibria and unobserved heterogeneity can be distinguished through comparison of payoff primitives.
本文给出了具有不完全信息的动态对策的非参数识别的充分条件,同时考虑了多重均衡和不可观测异质性。识别分两个步骤进行。第一步主要涉及使用测量误差文献中开发的结果识别平衡条件选择概率和状态转移。现有的测量误差文献依赖于单调性假设来确定潜在类型的顺序。相反,本文探讨了匹配顺序的识别结构,这对于识别支付原语很重要。第二步参照已有文献,在具有排除限制的均衡条件下确定收益参数。通过对支付原语的比较,可以区分多重均衡和未观察到的异质性。
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引用次数: 1
Empirical Methods for Dynamic Power Law Distributions in the Social Sciences 社会科学中动态幂律分布的经验方法
Pub Date : 2016-01-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2735847
Ricardo T. Fernholz
This paper introduces nonparametric econometric methods that characterize general power law distributions under basic stability conditions. These methods extend the literature on power laws in the social sciences in several directions. First, we show that any stationary distribution in a random growth setting is shaped entirely by two factors - the idiosyncratic volatilities and reversion rates (a measure of cross-sectional mean reversion) for different ranks in the distribution. This result is valid regardless of how growth rates and volatilities vary across different economic agents, and hence applies to Gibrat's law and its extensions. Second, we present techniques to estimate these two factors using panel data. Third, we show how our results offer a structural explanation for a generalized size effect in which higher-ranked processes grow more slowly than lower-ranked processes on average. Finally, we employ our empirical methods using panel data on commodity prices and show that our techniques accurately describe the empirical distribution of relative commodity prices. We also show the existence of a generalized "size" effect for commodities, as predicted by our econometric theory.
本文介绍了在基本稳定条件下表征一般幂律分布的非参数计量方法。这些方法在几个方向上扩展了社会科学中幂律的文献。首先,我们表明,随机增长环境中的任何平稳分布完全由两个因素决定——分布中不同等级的特殊波动率和回归率(横截面均值回归的一种度量)。无论不同经济主体的增长率和波动性如何变化,这一结果都是有效的,因此适用于直布罗陀定律及其延伸。其次,我们提出了使用面板数据估计这两个因素的技术。第三,我们展示了我们的结果如何为普遍的规模效应提供结构性解释,在这种效应中,排名较高的过程平均比排名较低的过程增长得更慢。最后,我们使用商品价格面板数据的实证方法,并表明我们的技术准确地描述了相对商品价格的实证分布。我们还展示了商品的广义“规模”效应的存在,正如我们的计量经济学理论所预测的那样。
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引用次数: 4
Set Identification and Estimation of Factor and Topic Models 集识别和估计因素和主题模型
Pub Date : 2015-11-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2685218
C. Adams
The paper presents sharp bounds on the identified set for classical factor models and non-parametric topic models based on results from the non-negative factorization literature. It compares the standard assumption (for factor models) of orthonormality of the factors (principal components analysis) to the "natural" assumption of topic models of additivity and non-negativity. For the former, the model is point identified when the number of factors is "small" but further restrictions such as those presented in Bai and Ng (2013) are needed to identify larger models. Under the latter, the paper characterizes the identified set and shows the necessary condition for point identification presented in Huang et al (2013) is also sufficient. In the two factor case this condition states that for each latent factor there must be some asset whose return gives it zero weight and there must be some time periods where each factor's normalized return is zero. These "sparsity" conditions are characteristics of the observed data, not assumptions on the data generating process. The paper presents a "least squares" estimator where the number of parameters to be estimated is not increasing in the size of the data set. The paper shows that this estimator is consistent both when the number time periods increases in the factor model and when the number of documents increases in the topic model. Unlike the similar estimator presented in the classical factor model literature (Stock and Watson (2002), Bai (2003)) this estimator does not rely on orthonormality.
本文基于非负因子分解文献的结果,给出了经典因子模型和非参数主题模型的识别集的明确界限。将因子(主成分分析)正交性的标准假设与可加性和非负性的主题模型的“自然”假设进行了比较。对于前者,模型是在因素数量“小”时确定的,但需要进一步的限制,如Bai和Ng(2013)提出的限制,以确定更大的模型。在后一种情况下,本文对识别集进行了表征,并证明Huang et al(2013)提出的点识别的必要条件也是充分的。在两个因素的情况下,这个条件表明,对于每个潜在因素,必须有一些资产的回报使其权重为零,并且必须有一些时间段,每个因素的标准化回报为零。这些“稀疏性”条件是观测数据的特征,而不是数据生成过程的假设。本文提出了一种“最小二乘”估计量,其中待估计参数的数量不随数据集的大小而增加。研究表明,无论在因子模型中时间段数量增加,还是在主题模型中文档数量增加时,该估计量都是一致的。与经典因子模型文献(Stock and Watson (2002), Bai(2003))中提出的类似估计量不同,该估计量不依赖于正交性。
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引用次数: 1
Quantitative Modelling of the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate during the Target Zone Regime of September 2011 to January 2015 2011年9月至2015年1月目标区制度期间欧元/瑞士法郎汇率的定量模型
Pub Date : 2015-10-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2634425
S. Lera, D. Sornette
Krugman (1991)'s target zone model for exchange rate dynamics has become the reference of a large part of this literature. Despite its simplicity and elegance, empirical evidence has been lacking, not least because it is difficult to capture the predicted non-linear relationship between the observable exchange rate and the non-observable fundamental value. This is why we propose a different approach. By inverting locally the relation between exchange rate and fundamental value, we derive analytical expressions for the conditional volatility and the probability density as a function of the exchange rate. This allows us to examine Krugman's prediction directly from historical data, and, furthermore, enables us to test the smooth pasting condition, which is intimately related to the no-arbitrage condition. Concretely, we study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 to January 15, 2015, when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. We show that the data are well explained by the theory and conclude that Krugman's target zone model holds after all, but apparently only under extreme and sustained pressure that pushes continuously the exchange rate very close to the boundary of the target zone.
克鲁格曼(1991)的汇率动态目标区模型已成为大部分文献的参考。尽管它简单而优雅,但缺乏经验证据,尤其是因为难以捕捉可观察汇率与不可观察的基本价值之间预测的非线性关系。这就是为什么我们提出一种不同的方法。通过局部反演汇率与基本价值之间的关系,导出了条件波动率和概率密度作为汇率函数的解析表达式。这使我们能够直接从历史数据中检验克鲁格曼的预测,并且进一步使我们能够测试与无套利条件密切相关的平滑粘贴条件。具体而言,我们研究了欧元/瑞士法郎汇率在2011年9月6日至2015年1月15日的特殊时期的表现,当时瑞士国家银行强制执行了1.20瑞士法郎兑1欧元的最低汇率。我们证明,理论很好地解释了这些数据,并得出结论,克鲁格曼的目标区模型毕竟是成立的,但显然只有在极端和持续的压力下,汇率才会不断地接近目标区的边界。
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引用次数: 18
期刊
ERN: Nonparametric Methods (Topic)
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