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Near-Optimal Bisection Search for Nonparametric Dynamic Pricing with Inventory Constraint 库存约束下非参数动态定价的近最优二分搜索
Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2509425
Y. Lei, Stefanus Jasin, Amitabh Sinha
We consider a single-product revenue management problem with an inventory constraint and unknown, noisy, demand function. The objective of the firm is to dynamically adjust the prices to maximize total expected revenue. We restrict our scope to the nonparametric approach where we only assume some common regularity conditions on the demand function instead of a specific functional form. We propose a family of pricing heuristics that successfully balance the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. The idea is to generalize the classic bisection search method to a problem that is affected both by stochastic noise and an inventory constraint. Our algorithm extends the bisection method to produce a sequence of pricing intervals that converge to the optimal static price with high probability. Using regret (the revenue loss compared to the deterministic pricing problem for a clairvoyant) as the performance metric, we show that one of our heuristics exactly matches the theoretical asymptotic lower bound that has been previously shown to hold for any feasible pricing heuristic. Although the results are presented in the context of revenue management problems, our analysis of the bisection technique for stochastic optimization with learning can be potentially applied to other application areas.
我们考虑一个单产品收益管理问题与库存约束和未知的,有噪声的,需求函数。企业的目标是动态调整价格以使总预期收益最大化。我们将我们的范围限制在非参数方法,我们只假设一些常见的规则条件的需求函数,而不是一个特定的函数形式。我们提出了一系列定价启发式方法,成功地平衡了勘探和开发之间的权衡。其思想是将经典的二分搜索方法推广到同时受随机噪声和库存约束影响的问题。该算法对二分法进行了扩展,生成了一个高概率收敛于最优静态价格的定价区间序列。使用遗憾(与千里眼的确定性定价问题相比的收入损失)作为性能度量,我们表明我们的一个启发式方法完全匹配理论渐近下界,该下界先前已被证明适用于任何可行的定价启发式方法。虽然结果是在收入管理问题的背景下提出的,但我们对具有学习的随机优化的对分技术的分析可以潜在地应用于其他应用领域。
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引用次数: 36
Asymptotic Refinements of a Fully Nonparametric Bootstrap for Quasi-Likelihood Ratio Tests of Extremum Estimators 极值估计的拟似然比检验的完全非参数Bootstrap的渐近改进
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2442389
Lorenzo Camponovo
We study the asymptotic refinements of a fully nonparametric bootstrap approach for quasi-likelihood ratio type tests of nonlinear restrictions. This bootstrap method applies to extremum estimators, such as quasi-maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments estimators. Unlike existing parametric bootstrap procedures for quasi-likelihood ratio type tests, this boot-strap approach does not require any specific parametric assumption on the data distribution, and constructs the bootstrap samples in a fully nonparametric way. We derive the higher order improvements of the nonparametric bootstrap compared to procedures based on standard first-order asymptotic theory. In particular, we show that the magnitude of these improvements is the same as those of the parametric bootstrap procedures currently proposed in the literature. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the reliability and accuracy of the nonparametric bootstrap approach.
研究了一类非线性约束的拟似然比型检验的全非参数自举方法的渐近改进。该方法适用于极值估计,如拟极大似然估计和广义矩估计。与现有的准似然比类型检验的参数自举方法不同,该方法不需要对数据分布进行任何特定的参数假设,并以完全非参数的方式构建自举样本。与基于标准一阶渐近理论的方法相比,我们得到了非参数自举的高阶改进。特别是,我们表明这些改进的幅度与文献中目前提出的参数自举过程相同。蒙特卡罗仿真验证了非参数自举方法的可靠性和准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Bootstrap Methods for the Realized Bipower Variation and for Jump Testing 实现双功率变化和跳跃测试的自举方法
Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2201083
Ana-Maria H. Dumitru
This paper proposes bootstrap methods for the realized bipower variation and the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006a) test for jumps. These results enable inference for the realized bipower variation in the presence of jumps in prices. Both the i.i.d and the WILD bootstrap are shown to outperform results obtained through the asymptotic theory. To detect jumps in the presence of microstructure noise, we propose a procedure that averages test results across multiple sampling frequencies. This method considerably improves jump detection, by generating a higher level of power than the asymptotic test, unaccompanied by a simultaneous increase in size.
本文提出了实现双功率变化的自举方法和跳跃的Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006a)检验。这些结果使我们能够推断在价格跳跃的情况下实现的双功率变化。结果表明,i.i.d和WILD bootstrap都优于渐近理论。为了检测微观结构噪声存在下的跳变,我们提出了一个在多个采样频率上平均测试结果的程序。这种方法通过产生比渐近检验更高的功率水平,而不伴随着尺寸的同时增加,大大改进了跳跃检测。
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引用次数: 0
Risk Margin Quantile Function via Parametric and Non-Parametric Bayesian Quantile Regression 基于参数和非参数贝叶斯分位数回归的风险边际分位数函数
Pub Date : 2014-02-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2394063
A. Dong, J. Chan, G. Peters
We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail how quantile regression is capable of providing an accurate estimation of risk margin and an overview of implied capital based on the historical volatility of a general insurers loss portfolio. Two modelling frameworks are considered based around parametric and nonparametric quantile regression models which we develop specifically in this insurance setting. In the parametric quantile regression framework, several models including the flexible generalized beta distribution family, asymmetric Laplace (AL) distribution and power Pareto distribution are considered under a Bayesian regression framework. The Bayesian posterior quantile regression models in each case are studied via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling strategies. In the nonparametric quantile regression framework, that we contrast to the parametric Bayesian models, we adopted an AL distribution as a proxy and together with the parametric AL model, we expressed the solution as a scale mixture of uniform distributions to facilitate implementation. The models are extended to adopt dynamic mean, variance and skewness and applied to analyze two real loss reserve data sets to perform inference and discuss interesting features of quantile regression for risk margin calculations.
我们开发了分位数回归模型,以获得风险边际和评估资本在非寿险应用。通过利用整个条件分位数函数范围,特别是更高的分位数水平,我们详细介绍了分位数回归如何能够提供对风险边际的准确估计,以及基于一般保险公司损失投资组合的历史波动性的隐含资本概述。两个建模框架被认为是基于参数和非参数分位数回归模型,我们在这个保险设置专门开发。在参数分位数回归框架下,考虑了贝叶斯回归框架下的柔性广义β分布族、非对称拉普拉斯分布和幂Pareto分布等模型。通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)采样策略研究了每种情况下的贝叶斯后验分位数回归模型。在非参数分位数回归框架中,与参数贝叶斯模型相比,我们采用AL分布作为代理,并与参数AL模型一起将解表示为均匀分布的尺度混合,以方便实现。将模型扩展为采用动态均值、方差和偏度,并应用于分析两个真实损失准备金数据集,进行推理并讨论分位数回归计算风险边际的有趣特征。
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引用次数: 3
Functional Coefficient Nonstationary Regression 非平稳回归
Pub Date : 2013-07-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2303991
Jiti Gao, P. Phillips
This paper studies a general class of nonlinear varying coefficient time series models with possible nonstationarity in both the regressors and the varying coffiecient components. The model accommodates a cointegrating structure and allows for endogeneity with contemporaneous correlation among the regressors, the varying coefficient drivers, and the residuals. This framework allows for a mixture of stationary and non-stationary data and is well suited to a variety of models that are commonly used in applied econometric work. Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation methods are proposed to estimate the varying coefficient functions. The analytical findings reveal some important differences, including convergence rates, that can arise in the conduct of semiparametric regression with nonstationary data. The results include some new asymptotic theory for nonlinear functionals of nonstationary and stationary time series that are of wider interest and applicability and subsume much earlier research on such systems. The finite sample properties of the proposed econometric methods are analyzed in simulations. An empirical illustration examines nonlinear dependencies in aggregate consumption function behavior in the US over the period 1960-2009.
本文研究一类非线性变系数时间序列模型,该模型的回归量和变系数分量都可能具有非平稳性。该模型采用协整结构,并允许回归量、变系数驱动因素和残差之间同时相关的内生性。该框架允许平稳和非平稳数据的混合,并且非常适合应用计量经济学工作中常用的各种模型。提出了变系数函数的非参数估计和半参数估计方法。分析结果揭示了一些重要的差异,包括收敛速度,这可能出现在与非平稳数据进行半参数回归的过程中。结果包括一些新的非平稳和平稳时间序列的非线性泛函渐近理论,这些理论具有更广泛的兴趣和适用性,并包含了对这类系统的早期研究。通过仿真分析了所提出的计量方法的有限样本性质。一个实证说明检验了1960-2009年期间美国总消费函数行为的非线性依赖关系。
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引用次数: 12
A Nonparametric Test of a Strong Leverage Hypothesis 强杠杆假设的非参数检验
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2145341
O. Linton, Yoon-Jae Whang, Yu-Min Yen
The so-called leverage hypothesis is that negative shocks to prices/returns aect volatility more than equal positive shocks. Whether this is attributable to changing nancial leverage is still subject to dispute but the terminology is in wide use. There are many tests of the leverage hypothesis using discrete time data. These typically involve tting of a general parametric or semiparametric model to conditional volatility and then testing the implied restrictions on parameters or curves. We propose an alternative way of testing this hypothesis using realized volatility as an alternative direct nonparametric measure. Our null hypothesis is of conditional distributional dominance and so is much stronger than the usual hypotheses considered previously. We implement our test on a number of stock return datasets using intraday data over a long span. We nd powerful evidence in favour of our hypothesis.
所谓的杠杆假设是,对价格/回报的负面冲击对波动性的影响大于正面冲击。这是否归因于不断变化的财务杠杆仍存在争议,但该术语已被广泛使用。利用离散时间数据对杠杆假设进行了许多检验。这些通常涉及将一般参数或半参数模型用于条件波动,然后测试参数或曲线上的隐含限制。我们提出了另一种方法来检验这一假设,使用已实现的波动率作为替代的直接非参数度量。我们的零假设是条件分布优势,因此比之前考虑的通常假设强得多。我们在许多股票回报数据集上实现了我们的测试,这些数据集使用了长时间内的日内数据。我们有强有力的证据支持我们的假设。
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引用次数: 9
A Simple Nonparametric Test for the Existence of Finite Moments 有限矩存在性的一个简单非参数检验
Pub Date : 2013-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2202269
Igor Fedotenkov
This paper proposes a simple, fast and direct nonparametric test to verify if a sample is drawn from a distribution with a finite first moment. The method can also be applied to test for the existence of finite moments of another order by taking the sample to the corresponding power. The test is based on the difference in the asymptotic behaviour of the arithmetic mean between cases when the underlying probability function either has or does not have a finite first moment. Test consistency is proved; then, test performance is illustrated with Monte-Carlo simulations and a practical application for the S&P500 index.
本文提出了一种简单、快速、直接的非参数检验方法,用于验证样本是否来自一阶矩有限的分布。该方法也可用于检验另一阶的有限矩是否存在,方法是将样本取相应的幂次。该检验是基于当潜在概率函数具有或不具有有限第一矩的情况之间算术平均值的渐近行为的差异。验证了试验一致性;然后,通过蒙特卡罗模拟和标准普尔500指数的实际应用说明了测试性能。
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引用次数: 3
Simulated Testing of Nonparametric Measure Changes for Hedging European Options 欧洲期权套期保值非参数测度变化的模拟检验
Pub Date : 2013-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/J.FRL.2012.11.002
Godfrey Smith
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引用次数: 2
A Distribution-Free Test for Outliers 异常值的无分布检验
Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2796894
B. Candelon, N. Metiu
Determining whether a data set contains one or more outliers is a challenge commonly faced in applied statistics. This paper introduces a distribution-free test for multiple outliers in data drawn from an unknown data generating process. Besides, a sequential algorithm is proposed in order to identify the outlying observations in the sample. Our methodology relies on a two-stage nonparametric bootstrap procedure. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test has good asymptotic properties, even for relatively small samples and heavy tailed distributions. The new outlier detection test could be instrumental in a wide range of statistical applications. The empirical performance of the test is illustrated by means of two examples in the fields of aeronautics and macroeconomics.
确定数据集是否包含一个或多个离群值是应用统计中经常面临的挑战。本文介绍了一种对未知数据生成过程中提取的数据中多个异常值的无分布检验方法。此外,为了识别样本中的离群观测值,提出了一种序列算法。我们的方法依赖于一个两阶段的非参数自举过程。蒙特卡罗实验表明,即使对于相对较小的样本和重尾分布,所提出的检验也具有良好的渐近性。新的离群值检测测试可以在广泛的统计应用中发挥重要作用。通过航空和宏观经济领域的两个实例说明了该方法的实证效果。
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引用次数: 9
Semi-Parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models Based on Support Function 基于支持函数的半参数贝叶斯部分识别模型
Pub Date : 2012-12-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2189030
Yuan Liao, Anna Simoni
Bayesian partially identified models have received a growing attention in recent years in the econometric literature, due to their broad applications in empirical studies. Classical Bayesian approach in this literature has been assuming a parametric model, by specifying an ad-hoc parametric likelihood function. However, econometric models usually only identify a set of moment inequalities, and therefore assuming a known likelihood function suffers from the risk of misspecification, and may result in inconsistent estimations of the identified set. On the other hand, moment-condition based likelihoods such as the limited information and exponential tilted empirical likelihood, though guarantee the consistency, lack of probabilistic interpretations. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian partially identified model, by placing a nonparametric prior on the unknown likelihood function. Our approach thus only requires a set of moment conditions but still possesses a pure Bayesian interpretation. We study the posterior of the support function, which is essential when the object of interest is the identified set. The support function also enables us to construct two-sided Bayesian credible sets (BCS) for the identified set. It is found that, while the BCS of the partially identified parameter is too narrow from the frequentist point of view, that of the identified set has asymptotically correct coverage probability in the frequentist sense. Moreover, we establish the posterior consistency for both the structural parameter and its identified set. We also develop the posterior concentration theory for the support function, and prove the semi-parametric Bernstein von Mises theorem. Finally, the proposed method is applied to analyze a financial asset pricing problem.
由于贝叶斯部分识别模型在实证研究中的广泛应用,近年来在计量经济学文献中受到越来越多的关注。本文献中的经典贝叶斯方法通过指定一个特别的参数似然函数来假设一个参数模型。然而,计量经济模型通常只识别一组矩不等式,因此假设一个已知的似然函数存在规范错误的风险,并可能导致对识别集的估计不一致。另一方面,基于矩条件的似然,如有限信息和指数倾斜的经验似然,虽然保证了一致性,但缺乏概率解释。我们通过在未知似然函数上放置非参数先验,提出了一个半参数贝叶斯部分识别模型。因此,我们的方法只需要一组力矩条件,但仍然具有纯贝叶斯解释。我们研究支持函数的后验,当感兴趣的对象是识别集时,这是必不可少的。该支持函数还使我们能够为识别集构造双面贝叶斯可信集(BCS)。发现部分辨识参数的BCS从频域角度看过于狭窄,而辨识集的BCS在频域意义上具有渐近正确的覆盖概率。此外,我们还建立了结构参数及其识别集的后验一致性。我们还发展了支持函数的后验集中理论,并证明了半参数Bernstein von Mises定理。最后,将该方法应用于一个金融资产定价问题的分析。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
ERN: Nonparametric Methods (Topic)
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