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ERN: Other Microeconomics: General Equilibrium & Disequilibrium Models of Financial Markets (Topic)最新文献

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What makes HFTs tick? Tick size changes and information advantage in a market with fast and slow traders 高频交易的原因是什么?在一个有快速和缓慢交易者的市场中,交易量变化和信息优势
A. Chaboud, Avery Dao, Clara Vega
We study the impact that two trading rule changes in the interdealer spot foreign exchange market, a reduction in the "tick size'' and a subsequent increase, had on the trading behavior of various types of market participants. We find that the most notable impact of the tick size reduction was a substantial increase in the liquidity demand of high-frequency traders (HFTs), not the decrease in their liquidity provision predicted by recent literature. We show that this change in behavior was linked to the richer information environment that arose after the tick size reduction and to the ability of faster traders to exploit it. Following the tick size decrease, and owing importantly to the increase in liquidity consumption by HFTs, the role of the spot market in price discovery dropped relative to that of the futures market. This points to the need for a balanced market ecology in financial markets where fast and slow traders coexist.
本文研究了交易商间现货外汇市场交易规则的两种变化,即“价差大小”的减小和随后的增加,对不同类型市场参与者的交易行为的影响。我们发现,最显著的影响是波动幅度的减少是高频交易者(hft)流动性需求的大幅增加,而不是最近文献预测的流动性供应的减少。我们的研究表明,这种行为的变化与滴答大小缩小后出现的更丰富的信息环境以及更快的交易者利用它的能力有关。随着交易量的减少,以及由于高频交易者流动性消耗的增加,现货市场在价格发现方面的作用相对于期货市场有所下降。这表明金融市场需要一个平衡的市场生态,快速和缓慢的交易者共存。
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引用次数: 5
The Folk Theorem for Repeated Games With Time-Dependent Discounting 具有时间相关折现的重复博弈的民间定理
Daehyun Kim, Xiaoxi Li
This paper defines a general framework to study infinitely repeated games with time-dependent discounting, in which we distinguish and discuss both time-consistent and time-inconsistent preferences. To study the long-term properties of repeated games, we introduce an asymptotic condition to characterize the fact that players become more and more patient, that is, the discount factors at all stages uniformly converge to $1$. Two types of folk theorem's are proven under perfect observations of past actions and without the public randomization assumption: the asymptotic one, i.e. the equilibrium payoff set converges to the individual rational set as players become patient, and the uniform one, i.e. any payoff in the individual rational set is sustained by a single strategy profile which is an approximate subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in all games with sufficiently patient discount factors. As corollaries, our results of time-inconsistency imply the corresponding folk theorem's with the quasi-hyperbolic discounting.
本文定义了一个研究具有时间依赖折扣的无限重复博弈的一般框架,在这个框架中我们区分并讨论了时间一致偏好和时间不一致偏好。为了研究重复博弈的长期性质,我们引入了一个渐近条件来表征玩家变得越来越耐心的事实,即所有阶段的折扣因子一致收敛于$1$。在对过去行为的完美观察和没有公共随机化假设的情况下,证明了两种类型的民间定理:渐近定理,即当参与者变得耐心时,均衡收益集收敛于个体理性集;统一定理,即个体理性集中的任何收益都由单个策略轮廓维持,该策略轮廓是所有具有足够耐心折扣因子的博弈中的近似子博弈完美纳什均衡。作为推论,我们的时间不一致的结果蕴涵了与拟双曲折现相对应的民间定理。
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引用次数: 0
Implications of Partial Information for Econometric Modeling of Macroeconomic Systems 部分信息对宏观经济系统计量经济建模的影响
A. Pagan, Tim Robinson
Representative models of the macroeconomy (RMs), such as DSGE models, frequently contain unobserved variables. A finite-order VAR representation in the observed variables may not exist, and therefore the impulse responses of the RMs and SVAR models may differ. We demonstrate this divergence often is: (i) not substantial; (ii) reflects the omission of stock variables from the VAR; and (iii) when the RM features I (1) variables can be ameliorated by estimating a latent-variable VECM. We show that DSGE models utilize identifying restrictions stemming from common factor dynamics reflecting statistical, not economic, assumptions. We analyze the use of measurement error, and demonstrate that it may result in unintended consequences, particularly in models featuring I (1) variables.
宏观经济的代表性模型,如DSGE模型,经常包含未观察到的变量。观察变量中的有限阶VAR表示可能不存在,因此均方根和SVAR模型的脉冲响应可能不同。我们证明这种分歧通常是:(i)不实质性的;(ii)反映了VAR中股票变量的遗漏;(iii)当RM特征I(1)个变量可以通过估计潜在变量VECM来改善时。我们表明,DSGE模型利用来自共同因素动态的识别限制,反映了统计假设,而不是经济假设。我们分析了测量误差的使用,并证明它可能导致意想不到的后果,特别是在具有I(1)个变量的模型中。
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引用次数: 3
The Determinants of Securities Trading Activity: Evidence from Four European Equity Markets 证券交易活动的决定因素:来自四个欧洲股票市场的证据
S. Camilleri, Francelle Galea
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market capitalisation, dividend yield, earnings yield, company growth and the distinction between recently listed firms as opposed to more established ones.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a sample of 172 stocks from four European markets and estimate models using the entire sample data and different sub-samples to check the relative importance of the above determinants. The authors also conduct a factor analysis to re-classify the variables into a more succinct framework.FindingsThe evidence suggests that market capitalisation is the most important trading activity determinant, and the number of years listed ranks thereafter.Research limitations/implicationsThe positive relation between trading activity and market capitalisation is in line with prior literature, while the findings relating to the other determinants offer further empirical evidence which is a worthy addition in view of the contradictory results in prior research.Practical implicationsThis study is of relevance to practitioners who would like to understand the cross-sectional variation in stock liquidity at a more detailed level.Originality/valueThe originality of the paper rests on two important grounds: the authors focus on trading turnover rather than on other liquidity proxies, since the former is accepted as an important determinant of the liquidity-generation process, and the authors adopt a rigorous approach towards checking the robustness of the results by considering various sub-sample configurations.
本文的目的是获得关于股票交易活动与五个可能的流动性决定因素之间联系的新经验证据:市值、股息收益率、收益收益率、公司成长性以及最近上市公司与更成熟公司之间的区别。设计/方法/方法作者使用来自四个欧洲市场的172只股票样本,并使用整个样本数据和不同的子样本来估计模型,以检查上述决定因素的相对重要性。作者还进行了因子分析,将变量重新分类到更简洁的框架中。研究结果有证据表明,市值是最重要的交易活动决定因素,上市年数排在其后。研究局限性/含义交易活动与市值之间的正相关关系与先前的文献一致,而与其他决定因素相关的研究结果提供了进一步的经验证据,鉴于先前研究中相互矛盾的结果,这是一个有价值的补充。实际意义本研究对想要更详细地了解股票流动性横截面变化的从业者具有重要意义。原创性/价值本文的原创性基于两个重要的理由:作者关注交易量而不是其他流动性代理,因为前者被认为是流动性产生过程的重要决定因素,并且作者采用严格的方法通过考虑各种子样本配置来检查结果的稳健性。
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引用次数: 3
Distributive Justice for Behavioral Welfare Economics 行为福利经济学中的分配正义
Michael Mandler
The incompleteness of behavioral preferences can lead many or even all allocations to qualify as Pareto optimal. But the incompleteness does not undercut the precision of utilitarian policy recommendations. Utilitarian methods can be applied to groups of goods or to the multiple social welfare functions that arise when individual preferences are incomplete, and policymakers do not need to provide the preference comparisons that individuals are unable to make for themselves. The utilitarian orderings that result, although also incomplete, can generate a unique optimum. Nonseparabilities in consumption reduce this precision but in all cases the dimension of the utilitarian optima drops substantially relative to the Pareto optima.
行为偏好的不完全性可能导致许多甚至所有分配都符合帕累托最优。但这种不完备并不会削弱实用主义政策建议的准确性。功利主义方法可以应用于商品群体或当个人偏好不完全时产生的多重社会福利功能,政策制定者不需要提供个人无法为自己进行的偏好比较。由此产生的功利主义排序,尽管也是不完整的,但可以产生一个独特的最优。消费的不可分性降低了这种精度,但在所有情况下,功利最优的维度相对于帕累托最优显著下降。
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引用次数: 1
Some Observations on Trend Following: A Binomial Perspective 关于趋势跟踪的一些观察:二项式视角
D. Modest
This paper uses a simple binomial framework to explore trend following. It shows (by counter example) that the existence of positive profits from trend-following strategies, on its own, provides no prima facie evidence on the efficiency or inefficiency of markets. In addition, it explores the most important feature of time series momentum investment strategies: the return shaping impact of trend following through its dynamic positioning. In a stylized efficient market setting (with no transaction costs), the paper shows that the dynamic nature of trend following shapes when profits and losses occur compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. There is, however, a conservation of “mass” in that gains and losses are shuffled across periods such that the unconditional distribution of profits is unaffected. In this sense, trend following, by construction, generates crisis alpha --- for crises where large losses occur over extended periods of time. Due to its ability to shape when profit and losses occur, trend following can provide significant portfolio diversification and hedging potential for those investors with strategic risk-on exposures.
本文使用一个简单的二项式框架来探讨趋势跟随。它(通过反例)表明,从趋势跟随策略中获得正利润的存在,本身并没有提供有关市场效率或无效率的初步证据。此外,本文还探讨了时间序列动量投资策略最重要的特征:趋势跟随通过其动态定位对收益的塑造影响。在一个程式化的有效市场环境中(没有交易成本),本文表明,与买入并持有策略相比,当利润和亏损发生时,趋势跟随的动态性质会形成。然而,有一个“质量”守恒,即收益和损失在不同时期被打乱,因此利润的无条件分配不受影响。从这个意义上说,从结构上讲,趋势跟随会产生危机α——对于在较长时间内发生巨大损失的危机。由于它能够决定何时发生盈利和亏损,趋势跟踪可以为那些具有战略风险敞口的投资者提供重要的投资组合多样化和对冲潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Does the Delay in Firm-Specific Information Cause Momentum? 企业特定信息的延迟会导致动量吗?
Bharat Raj Parajuli
In this paper, I develop a medium-horizon firm-specific information delay (FSID) measure using the methodology introduced by Hou and Moskowitz (2005) (hereafter HM). Unlike the HM measure of the speed of diffusion of US market-specific information in the short horizon (four weeks), FSID measures the speed of diffusion of firm-specific information in the medium horizon (six months). Whereas previous studies including HM found no significant relation between momentum premium and the HM measure, I find that momentum ceases to exist in the cross section of firms after controlling for FSID. FSID has a symmetrical effect on both loser and winner firms: high-FSID loser firms lose more than low-FSID loser firms, while high-FSID winner firms win more than low-FSID winner firms. High-FSID firms are firms with greater uncertainties related to their fundamentals; these are slightly larger growth firms, have higher dispersion among analysts about their future earnings, pay low dividends, have higher costs of goods, have higher volatility around their profitability, and actively perform major corporate events.
在本文中,我使用由Hou和Moskowitz(2005)(以下简称HM)介绍的方法开发了一个中视界企业特定信息延迟(FSID)度量。与HM衡量美国市场特定信息在短期内(四周)的传播速度不同,FSID衡量的是企业特定信息在中期(六个月)的传播速度。而先前的研究包括HM发现动量溢价和HM测量之间没有显著的关系,我发现在控制FSID后,动量在公司横截面中不再存在。FSID对输家和赢家公司都有对称的影响:高FSID输家公司比低FSID输家公司损失更多,而高FSID赢家公司比低FSID赢家公司赢得更多。高fsid企业是指其基本面存在较大不确定性的企业;这些公司规模稍大,分析师对其未来收益的预测差异较大,支付较低的股息,商品成本较高,盈利能力波动较大,并积极开展重大公司活动。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Short Selling Mechanism on Corporate Cash Holding – Evidence in China 卖空机制对企业现金持有量的影响——来自中国的证据
Crystal Xiaobei Chen, Q. He
Abstract: The short-selling mechanism is an important decision to improve the efficiency of the capital market. China began implementing the short-selling policy in 2010. This paper selects the sample of all A-board listed companies from 2007 to 2016. By comparing the cash holdings of the enterprises that have not joined the short selling policy, it is found that the cash holdings of the enterprises participating in the short selling policy are significantly lower than those without the short selling policy. It is also found that this effect has different effects on enterprises with different characteristics. For enterprises with worse internal governance before participating in the short selling mechanism, the effect of cash holdings reduction is more obvious. Secondly, the effect of the reduction on cash holdings is only significant in the sample group with smaller financing constraints. Finally, in areas with low market level, the short selling policy does not significantly reduce the amount of cash holdings, but in higher market areas, this effect is more significant.
摘要:卖空机制是提高资本市场效率的一项重要决策。中国从2010年开始实施卖空政策。本文选取2007 - 2016年所有a板上市公司作为样本。通过对比未加入卖空政策的企业的现金持有量,发现参与卖空政策的企业的现金持有量明显低于未加入卖空政策的企业。研究还发现,这种效应对不同特征的企业有不同的影响。对于参与卖空机制前内部治理较差的企业,现金持有量减少的效果更为明显。其次,减少现金持有量的影响仅在融资约束较小的样本组中显著。最后,在市场水平较低的地区,卖空政策并未显著降低现金持有量,但在市场水平较高的地区,这种效果更为显著。
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引用次数: 0
Trading Strategy for Bear Markets 熊市的交易策略
Matúš Padyšák, Radovan Vojtko
This paper aims to find a strategy that would work even during bear markets. Such approach should be profitable even when the equity markets are down and could be used as a hedge during those bad times. Common sense suggests that maybe some different asset classes could be used for such purpose. Therefore this paper examines the relationship between prices and skewness of commodities from the practitioner's point of view, where such idea is based on something similar in the world of equities, the Lottery effect in the stocks. Individual investors tend to prefer stocks with lottery-like payoffs in the search for the as high profits as it is possible, and they are willing to play the equity lottery. Unfortunately, in the lotteries, there is a small number of winners, a large number of losers, and one happy lottery ticket issuer that has profited from it. Studies have found out that stocks with lottery-like payoffs have negative abnormal returns if they are compared to the stocks with non-lottery-like payoffs. The same results are found in the world of commodities, where the lottery-like characteristics can be measured by skewness. Most importantly, such a strategy consisting of going long four commodities with the lowest skewness and shorting four commodities with the highest skewness is profitable and negatively correlated with the equity market. It also survives various trading assumptions and trading costs, while remaining profitable.
本文旨在寻找一种即使在熊市中也能奏效的策略。即使在股市下跌时,这种方法也应该是有利可图的,并且可以在经济不景气时用作对冲手段。常识表明,或许一些不同的资产类别可以用于这一目的。因此,本文从实践者的角度考察了价格与商品偏度之间的关系,这种想法是基于股票世界中类似的东西,股票中的彩票效应。个人投资者为了追求尽可能高的利润,倾向于选择像彩票一样收益的股票,他们愿意玩股票彩票。不幸的是,在彩票中,赢家很少,输家很多,只有一个快乐的彩票发行者从中获利。研究发现,与非彩票类收益的股票相比,具有彩票类收益的股票具有负的异常收益。在商品领域也发现了同样的结果,在商品领域,类似彩票的特征可以通过偏度来衡量。最重要的是,这种由做多四种偏度最小的商品和做空四种偏度最大的商品组成的策略是有利可图的,并且与股票市场负相关。它还经受住了各种交易假设和交易成本,同时保持盈利。
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引用次数: 1
Informational Efficiency in Securitization After Dodd-Frank 多德-弗兰克法案后证券化的信息效率
Sean Flynn, Andra Ghent, Alexei Tchistyi
We analyze how Dodd-Frank-mandated risk retention affects the information investors extract from issuers’ retention choices in the CMBS market. We show that the required retention level is both binding and stringent. Although this implies issuers cannot signal using the level of retention, we provide a model showing that signaling can occur by varying the retention structure. The model is consistent with spreads being empirically lower in deals with a purely first-loss retention structure. A stated concern of rulemakers is asymmetric information. However, we show that, post-crisis, the level of asymmetric information in this market is quite low.
我们分析了多德-弗兰克授权的风险保留如何影响投资者从CMBS市场上发行人的保留选择中提取的信息。我们表明,所需的保留水平既具有约束力又严格。虽然这意味着发行人不能使用留存水平发出信号,但我们提供了一个模型,表明可以通过改变留存结构来发出信号。该模型与纯首次损失保留结构交易的经验利差较低的观点是一致的。规则制定者公开表示的一个担忧是信息不对称。然而,我们表明,在危机后,这个市场的信息不对称水平相当低。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
ERN: Other Microeconomics: General Equilibrium & Disequilibrium Models of Financial Markets (Topic)
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