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Downside Risk and Stock Returns: An Empirical Analysis of the Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics from the G-7 Countries 下行风险与股票收益:来自七国集团长期和短期动态的实证分析
Pub Date : 2016-01-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2800951
C. Chen, T. Chiang, W. Härdle
This paper This paper This paper This paper presents presents presents a fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrat a fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrat a fractionally cointegrat a fractionally cointegrat a fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrat a fractionally cointegrata fractionally cointegrat a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression ed vector autoregression (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR) model to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine to examine various relations various relations various relations various relations various relations between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside riskbetween stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside riskbetween stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk between stock returns and downside risk . Evidence from major advance Evidence from major advance Evidence from major advanceEvidence from major advanceEvidence from major advance Evidence from major advanceEvidence from major advance Evidence from major advance Evidence from major advanceEvidence from major advanceEvidence from major advance Evidence from major advance Evidence from major advanced markets markets markets markets markets supports the supports the notion that notion that notion that downside risk measured by measured by measured by measured by measured by measured by measured by value value value-at -risk ( risk (VaRVaRVaR) has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information has significant information content content that reflects that reflects that reflects that reflects that reflects lagged long lagged long lagged longlagged long lagged long -run variance and run variance and run variance and run variance and run variance and run variance and run variance and run variance and run variance and higher momentshigher moments higher moments higher moments higher moments higher momentshigher moments of risk for for predict redict ing stock returns. stock returns. stock returns. stock returns. The e The e vidence vidence vidence supports the positive tradeoff hypothesis positive tradeoff hypothesis positive tradeoff hypothesis positive tradeoff hypothesis positive tra
本文给出了一个分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,分数协整,自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量自回归向量(FCVAR) (FCVAR) (FCVAR)模型检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验检验各种关系股票收益与股票下跌风险之间的各种关系各种关系股票收益与股票下跌风险之间的各种关系股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险股票收益与下行风险重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据重大进展的证据来自主要发达市场的证据市场市场市场支持那个观点那个观点下行风险被衡量被衡量被衡量的被衡量的被衡量的被衡量的被衡量的价值风险(VaRVaRVaR)有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息有显著信息内容内容反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映反映落后长滞后落后longlagged长滞后国营方差和方差和跑方差和方差和方差和方差和方差和方差和跑方差和更高的momentshigher时刻更高时刻时刻时刻高momentshigher时刻的风险预测redict ing股票回报。股票的回报。股票的回报。股票的回报。证据证据支持正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说正权衡假说和杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应杠杆效应,杠杆效应,杠杆效应,在长期中,在长期中,在一些市场中,在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。一些市场在短期内。我们发现,下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现,下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现下行风险占54.36%的价格发现,我们发现美国的下行风险占价格发现的54.36%,我们发现美国的下行风险占价格发现的54.36%,我们发现美国的下行风险占价格发现的54.36%,我们发现美国的下行风险占价格发现的54.36%,我们发现美国的下行风险占54。
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引用次数: 8
On the Usefulness of Intraday Price Ranges to Gauge Liquidity in Cap-Based Portfolios 论盘中价格区间对衡量市值型投资组合流动性的有用性
Pub Date : 2015-12-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2294444
P. Mazza, M. Petitjean
We find that easy-to-observe price ranges are useful for estimating intraday liquidity. Following the literature on range-based volatility estimators, we go beyond the use of the closing price only and rely on the full range of prices. Based on high, low, opening, and closing (HLOC) prices, we show that a greater intensity in the price discovery process (as measured by the open–close range) and a higher level of price uncertainty (as captured by the High–Low range) lower ex-ante liquidity for small, mid, and large caps. Realized volatility (RV) fails to capture these effects. Although order books have become increasingly difficult to treat, there is some good news: it has never been easier to look at price ranges.
我们发现易于观察的价格区间对于估计日内流动性是有用的。根据基于区间的波动率估计器的文献,我们超越了仅使用收盘价,而依赖于价格的全部范围。基于高、低、开盘和收盘(HLOC)价格,我们表明,价格发现过程中的强度越大(以开盘价和收盘价范围衡量),价格不确定性水平越高(以高低范围衡量),小、中、大盘股的事前流动性就越低。已实现波动率(RV)无法捕捉到这些影响。尽管订单越来越难以处理,但还是有一些好消息:查看价格区间从未像现在这样容易。
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引用次数: 5
Stock Market Risk in the Financial Crisis 金融危机中的股市风险
Pub Date : 2015-11-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2569057
P. Grout, A. Zalewska
In this paper, we look at the effect of the financial crisis from an angle overlooked to date in the finance literature by investigating composition effects arising from the financial crisis. A composition effect is a change in the market risk of a sector that is caused not by a direct change in that sector but by a change in another sector that affects the composition of the stock market. In the paper we investigate the pre and during crisis market risk of the industrial, banking and utilities sectors. Amongst other results, we find a positive relationship across the G12 countries between the increase in the market risk of industrials during the crisis and both the pre-crisis market risk of the banking sector and the scale of the systemic crisis in a country. The six G12 countries that experienced a major systematic banking crisis are amongst the seven countries with the largest increases in the market risk for industrials. Results drawn from our detailed analysis using US data are consistent with these findings. Finally, we show how the results add to our understanding of the linkages between the financial and real sector and conclude that composition effects of the financial crisis could have a significant chilling effect on investment in industrials, which is in addition to the effect of other linkages already documented.
在本文中,我们通过调查金融危机产生的构成效应,从迄今为止金融文献中被忽视的角度来看待金融危机的影响。构成效应是指一个行业的市场风险发生变化,这种变化不是由该行业的直接变化引起的,而是由影响股市构成的另一个行业的变化引起的。本文研究了工业、银行和公用事业部门在危机前和危机期间的市场风险。在其他结果中,我们发现G12国家在危机期间工业市场风险的增加与危机前银行业市场风险和一国系统性危机规模之间存在正相关关系。经历了重大系统性银行危机的6个12国集团国家是工业市场风险增幅最大的7个国家之一。我们使用美国数据进行详细分析得出的结果与这些发现一致。最后,我们展示了这些结果如何增加了我们对金融和实体部门之间联系的理解,并得出结论,金融危机的构成效应可能对工业投资产生重大的寒蝉效应,这是除了已经记录的其他联系的影响之外。
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引用次数: 29
The Canadian Hedge Fund Industry: Performance and Market Timing 加拿大对冲基金业:业绩与市场时机
Pub Date : 2015-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2002649
Peter G. Klein, D. Purdy, Isaac Schweigert, Alexander Vedrashko
We analyze the risk and return characteristics of Canadian hedge funds based on a comprehensive database we compiled. We find that Canadian hedge funds have higher risk-adjusted performance and different distributional characteristics relative to the global hedge fund indices. We investigate market timing by Canadian hedge funds and find that they do not time the Canadian or global stock and bond markets, but hedge funds in the Managed Futures strategy group time the commodity market. These results are robust to parameter instability and structural changes in the model. We also illustrate the impact of using local and global risk factors to analyze the performance of local investment firms.
本文以编制的综合数据库为基础,分析了加拿大对冲基金的风险和收益特征。研究发现,与全球对冲基金指数相比,加拿大对冲基金具有更高的风险调整绩效和不同的分布特征。我们调查了加拿大对冲基金的市场时机,发现他们不为加拿大或全球股票和债券市场计时,但管理期货策略组的对冲基金为商品市场计时。这些结果对模型的参数不稳定性和结构变化具有鲁棒性。我们还说明了使用本地和全球风险因素来分析本地投资公司绩效的影响。
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引用次数: 5
When are Investment Projects in the Same Risk Class? 投资项目何时属于同一风险类别?
Pub Date : 2015-01-30 DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12157
D. Johnstone
If two investments have the same payoff covariance with the market but one has higher expected payoff, which asset according to the CAPM has most risk? One answer is that as far as risk goes the two assets are the same, because they have the same covariance with the market. The correct answer, pointed out nearly four decades ago by Eugene Fama, but long overlooked, is that investments have the same risk, the same returns beta and the same CAPM discount rate if and only if they have the same ratio of ex ante payoff covariance to payoff mean. This insight clarifies much of the conventional wisdom that surrounds capital budgeting and "risk adjusted" discount rates, while also displaying the mechanics by which information arrival affects the CAPM cost of capital.
如果两项投资与市场的收益协方差相同,但其中一项的预期收益更高,根据CAPM,哪项资产风险最大?一种答案是,就风险而言,这两种资产是相同的,因为它们与市场的协方差相同。尤金•法玛(Eugene Fama)在近40年前就指出了正确的答案,但长期被忽视的是,当且仅当投资具有相同的事前支付协方差与支付均值之比时,它们具有相同的风险、相同的贝塔收益和相同的CAPM贴现率。这一见解澄清了围绕资本预算和“风险调整”贴现率的许多传统智慧,同时也展示了信息到达影响资本资产定价机制(CAPM)成本的机制。
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引用次数: 7
Channels of Risk-Sharing at Micro Level: Savings, Investments and the Risk Aversion Heterogeneity 微观层面的风险分担渠道:储蓄、投资与风险厌恶异质性
Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2546107
Faruk Balli, E. Pierucci, F. Pericoli
Applying the variance decomposition developed by Asdrubali et al. (1996), the paper explores for the first time the role and the extent of smoothing channels at a micro level using a sample of UK households. Our empirical analysis of British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data concludes that the bulk of risk-sharing in the UK is driven by the savings channel. By allowing for risk aversion heterogeneity, we detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between risk aversion and the extent of smoothing achieved through financial markets. We also analyze the issue of risk-sharing by income, education levels and by region. We find that risk-sharing is more effective (higher) for individuals whose savings are more flexible, while it is less effective (lower) for individuals characterized by relatively more stable savings rate (like the Scottish population), regardless of their economic conditions.
运用Asdrubali等人(1996)开发的方差分解方法,本文首次以英国家庭为样本,在微观层面探讨了平滑渠道的作用和程度。我们对英国家庭小组调查(BHPS)数据的实证分析得出结论,英国的大部分风险分担是由储蓄渠道驱动的。通过考虑风险厌恶异质性,我们发现风险厌恶与金融市场平滑程度之间存在倒u型关系。我们还分析了按收入、教育水平和地区划分的风险分担问题。我们发现,对于储蓄更灵活的个人,风险分担更有效(更高),而对于储蓄率相对更稳定的个人(如苏格兰人口),无论其经济状况如何,风险分担的有效性都较低(更低)。
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引用次数: 3
Spread Risk Premia in Corporate Credit Default Swap Markets 企业信用违约互换市场的利差风险溢价
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1961197
Oliver Entrop, Richard Schiemert, Marco Wilkens
The spread risk premium component of credit default swap (CDS) spreads represents a compensation demanded by protection sellers for future changes in CDS spreads caused by unpredictable fluctuations in the reference entity’s risk-neutral default intensity. This paper defines and estimates a measure of the spread risk premium component in CDS spreads of a sample of European investment-grade firms by using a stochastic intensity credit model. Our results show that, on average, investors demand a positive premium for such mark-tomarket risks. After controlling for CDS market conditions, like liquidity and supply/demand effects, a panel data analysis of the estimated spread risk premia reveals a positive impact of event risk captured by the overall stock market volatility and a negative impact of investors’ appetite for exposure to credit markets as reflected by the overall CDS market.
信用违约掉期(CDS)价差的风险溢价部分代表了保护卖方对参考实体风险中性违约强度不可预测的波动所引起的CDS价差的未来变化所要求的补偿。本文利用随机强度信用模型,定义并估计了欧洲投资级公司CDS价差中价差风险溢价部分的度量。我们的研究结果表明,平均而言,投资者对这种按市场计价的风险要求正溢价。在控制了CDS市场条件(如流动性和供需效应)后,对估计价差风险溢价的面板数据分析显示,整体股市波动所捕获的事件风险产生了积极影响,而整体CDS市场所反映的投资者对信贷市场敞口的兴趣产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 2
Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Institutional Exits and Past Returns 短期逆转:机构退出和过去收益的影响
Pub Date : 2014-10-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2389408
S. Cheng, A. Hameed, A. Subrahmanyam, S. Titman
Return reversals depend on de facto market making by active informed investors as well as uninformed market makers. Accordingly, we find that reversals are higher following declines in the number of active institutional investors. Price declines over the past quarter, which serve as a proxy for declines in active investors, lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months; indeed reversals are concentrated primarily in past quarter losers. We provide evidence that price pressure induced by fire sales in response to past stock price drops cannot fully account for our results. Further, the evidence is consistent with market makers reacting more quickly to changes in the number of informed investors in the more recent period, particularly for large firms.
回报逆转取决于消息灵通的积极投资者和消息不灵通的做市商事实上的做市行为。因此,我们发现,随着活跃机构投资者数量的减少,逆转会更高。过去一个季度的价格下跌预示着活跃投资者的减少,在接下来的两个月里,价格会出现更强劲的逆转;事实上,逆转主要集中在上一季度的输家身上。我们提供的证据表明,由于过去股价下跌而导致的低价抛售所带来的价格压力并不能完全解释我们的业绩。此外,有证据表明,在最近一段时间里,做市商对知情投资者数量的变化做出了更快的反应,尤其是对大型公司而言。
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引用次数: 12
Return Predictability in International Financial Markets and the Role of Investor Sentiment 国际金融市场的收益可预测性及投资者情绪的作用
Pub Date : 2014-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2291237
Anjeza Kadilli
We investigate the predictability of stock returns in the financial market for a large panel of developed countries using investor sentiment, business-cycle variables and financial indicators within two panel regime-switching models, with threshold and smooth transition between regimes. We find strong evidence of predictability of long-term returns following the business cycles, but much weaker results for the short-run returns. During crisis times, investor sentiment and inflation become key factors in predicting stock returns. Different tests and goodness of fit measures point out that the use of regime-switching models is more appropriate than linear models. To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of investor sentiment on future returns for a large number of countries, the existing literature being mainly focused on the U.S. stock market.
我们利用投资者情绪、商业周期变量和两个面板制度转换模型中的金融指标,研究了发达国家金融市场股票收益的可预测性,这些模型具有阈值和制度之间的平滑过渡。我们发现了商业周期后长期回报可预测性的有力证据,但短期回报的可预测性要弱得多。在危机时期,投资者情绪和通货膨胀成为预测股票回报的关键因素。不同的检验和拟合优度度量表明,使用状态切换模型比使用线性模型更合适。据我们所知,这项研究是第一次对大量国家的投资者情绪对未来回报的影响进行研究,现有的文献主要集中在美国股市。
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引用次数: 4
Economic Growth Risk and Stock Market Performance: Cross-Sectional Evidence from 70 Countries 经济增长风险与股市表现:来自70个国家的横截面证据
Pub Date : 2014-05-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2434832
V. Sum, An Wang
This study investigates the impact of economic growth risk on stock market performance in 70 countries. Based on the analysis of the full sample, on average, 1% increase in economic growth risk is associated with 0.23% (p = 0.058) increase in stock market return. Looking at stock market return calculated using January returns only, on average, 1% increase in economic growth risk is associated with 0.647% (p = 0.013) increase in stock market return. On average, 1% increase in economic growth risk is associated with 0.469% (p = 0.025) increase in stock market January return across developed markets. Likewise, on average, 1% increase in economic growth risk is associated with 0.695% (p = 0.069) increase in stock market January return across frontier markets. Finally, economic growth risk does not appear to have any impact on stock market return across emerging markets.
本研究调查了70个国家的经济增长风险对股市表现的影响。根据对全样本的分析,平均而言,经济增长风险增加1%与股市收益增加0.23% (p = 0.058)相关。仅以1月份的回报率计算股市回报率,平均而言,经济增长风险增加1%与股市回报率增加0.647% (p = 0.013)相关。平均而言,经济增长风险增加1%与发达市场1月份股市回报增加0.469% (p = 0.025)相关。同样,平均而言,经济增长风险增加1%与前沿市场1月份股票市场回报增加0.695% (p = 0.069)相关。最后,经济增长风险似乎对新兴市场的股市回报没有任何影响。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Stock Market Risk (Topic)
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