European Journal of Epidemiology最新文献

Objective

To evaluate the magnitude of the potential underestimation of the proportion of cancer cases attributable to excess weight, known as population attributable fraction (PAF), due to potential bias from prediagnostic weight loss already present at baseline of cohort studies and to overcome it as much as possible.

Methods

Data from the UK Biobank cohort participants aged 40–69 without prior cancer diagnosis were analyzed. We assessed the magnitude of associations of excess weight with the incidence of obesity-related cancers combined, and separately for gastrointestinal (GI) and other cancers. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and PAFs for excess weight at baseline were estimated for various periods of time after weight measurements.

Findings

Of 458,660 participants, 20,218 individuals developed obesity-related cancers during a median 11.0-year follow-up, comprising 8,460 GI, and 11,765 non-GI cancers. PAFs were much higher for cancers occurring more than four years after recruitment than for cancers occurring within the initial four years: 17.7% versus 7.2%, 21.4% versus 11.7% for GI, non-GI and all obesity-related cancers combined, respectively. With respect to total cancer (including cancers with no established relationship with excess weight), PAFs were estimated as 5.1% and 8.8% for the 0–4 and 4-14-year periods of follow-up.

Conclusion

The proportion of cancers attributable to excess weight is likely substantially larger than previously estimated based on cohort studies with short follow-up time or no or only limited exclusion of the early years of follow-up from the analyses.

Results from studies investigating the association between maternal or child epilepsy, use of anticonvulsants in pregnancy, and childhood cancer are inconsistent and at times contradictory. Linking Danish national databases, we obtained epilepsy and childhood cancer diagnoses, and anticonvulsant use data. We estimated adjusted odds ratios of all or specific childhood cancers in relation to maternal or child epilepsy and anticonvulsant therapies using conditional logistic regression. Maternal epilepsy was positively associated with all childhood cancers in offspring, specifically, with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.68, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.16, 2.43) and Wilms tumor (OR = 2.13, 95% CI = 0.97, 4.68). When considering maternal ever (lifetime) ingestion of anticonvulsants, a positive association was found with all cancers (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.30), and central nervous system tumors (CNS) (OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.76) as well as neuroblastoma (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.06, 2.90) among offspring. Maternal anticonvulsant use before or during the index pregnancy was related to CNS tumors in offspring (OR = 1.99, 95% CI = 0.99, 4.00).

Previous studies showed positive associations between milk intake and Parkinson’s disease (PD) in men but not in women, but few studies were available in women. Due to the long prodromal PD phase, reverse causation represents a major threat to investigations of diet in PD; cohort studies with a long follow-up are needed. We investigated associations between intake of milk and other dairy products with PD incidence in women from the E3N cohort study (1993–2018). PD diagnoses were validated using medical records and drug claim databases. Diet was assessed via a dietary questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. Exposures were lagged by 5y in main analyses and longer lags in sensitivity analyses. We examined the impact of adjustment for premotor symptoms (constipation/depression). During a mean follow-up of 18.8y, 845 of 71,542 women developed PD. Main analyses showed a J-shaped association between total milk intake and PD (P-non linearity = 0.045), with a significant linear positive association among drinkers (HR/1-SD = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.01–1.18, P = 0.024), that was explained in secondary analyses by a different pattern of association for plain milk (alone or with cereals) and milk added to drinks (tea/coffee/chicory). PD incidence increased significantly with plain milk consumption (HR/1-SD = 1.08 [1.02–1.14], P = 0.014). A U-shaped relation was observed for milk added to drinks (P-non linearity = 0.038), with lower PD incidence in women with moderate consumption (HR = 0.77 [0.61–0.97], P = 0.030) and no difference between non-drinkers and those with the highest consumption (HR = 0.98 [0.79–1.21], P = 0.848). Findings were similar in analyses using longer lags and adjusted for constipation/depression. Consumption of other dairy products was not associated with PD. A J-shaped association between total milk intake and PD was explained by a different pattern of association for plain milk intake and milk added to drinks. Reverse causation is unlikely to explain a positive association of plain milk with PD incidence in women. The U-shaped relation for milk added to drinks could be explained by an interaction between milk and coffee/tea/chicory. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

The Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort, established in 1989, links comprehensive, longitudinal clinical data for adults with HIV receiving care in the Johns Hopkins John G. Bartlett Specialty Practice in Baltimore, Maryland, USA, to aid in understanding HIV care and treatment outcomes. Data include demographics, laboratory results, inpatient and outpatient visit information and clinical diagnoses, and prescribed and dispensed medications abstracted from medical records. A subset of patients separately consents to self-report patient-centric outcomes on standardized instruments approximately every 6 months, and another subset separately consents to contribute plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells to a linked specimen repository approximately annually. The cohort has cumulatively enrolled over 8000 people, with just under 2000 on average attending ≥ 1 HIV primary care visit in any given year. The cohort reflects the HIV epidemic in Baltimore: in 2021, median age was 57, 64% of participants were male, 77% were non-Hispanic Black, and 37% acquired HIV through injection drug use. This update to the cohort profile of the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort illustrates both how the population of people with HIV in Baltimore, Maryland, USA has changed over three decades, and we have adapted data collection procedures over three decades to ensure this long-running cohort remains responsive to patient characteristics and research gaps in the provision of care to people with HIV and substance use.

Self-medication (SM) forms an important part of public health strategy. Nonetheless, little research has been performed to understand the current state of self-medication in the European Union (EU). Utilizing data from the third wave of the European Health Interview Surveys, this study finds an estimated SM prevalence of 34.3% in the EU (95%CI = 34.1-34.5%; n = 255,758). SM prevalence, as well as SM prevalence inequality between men and women, varies substantially between EU member countries. Via multivariable analysis, we also identify a number of variables associated with SM, most notably the substantial impact of health systems on SM behavior (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 4.00; 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] = 3.81–4.21). Several demographics are also associated with greater SM prevalence, including those aged 25–44 (versus ages 75+: AOR = 1.21; 95%CI = 1.12–1.31), women (AOR = 1.74; 95%CI = 1.68–1.81), immigrants born in other EU states (AOR = 1.16; 95%CI = 1.04–1.30), those with higher education (AOR = 1.83; 95%CI = 1.60–2.09), and urban dwellers (AOR = 1.14; 95%CI = 1.04–1.30). Additionally, long-standing health problems (AOR = 1.39; 95%CI = 1.33–1.45), visits to doctors (both general practitioners and specialists) (AOR = 1.21, 95%CIs = 1.15–1.26, 1.17–1.26), and unmet needs for health care due to waiting lists (AOR = 1.38; 95%CI = 1.23–1.55) or inability to afford medical examinations/treatment (AOR = 1.27; 95%CI = 1.12–1.42) serve as conditioners for SM. We also find that smoking (AOR = 1.05; 95%CI = 1.01–1.10), vaping (AOR = 1.19; 95%CI = 1.06–1.32), drinking alcohol (AOR = 1.23; 95%CI = 1.19–1.28), and higher levels of physical activity (AOR = 1.27; 95%CI = 1.22–1.32) are factors associated with SM. Analysis of these variables reveals that though women self-medicate more than men, the patterns that govern their consumption are similar.

While there is substantial evidence on excess mortality in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, no study has conducted a cause-specific analysis of excess mortality for the whole period 2020–2022 across multiple countries. We examined cause-specific excess mortality during 2020–2022 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—four countries with similar demographics and welfare provisions, which implemented different pandemic response policies. To this end, we utilized nationwide register-based information on annual cause-specific deaths stratified by age and sex, and applied linear regression models to predict mortality in 2020–2022 based on the reference period 2010–2019. Excess deaths were obtained by contrasting actual and expected deaths. Additional analyses employed standardization to a common population, as well as population adjustments to account for previous deaths. Our results showed that, besides deaths due to COVID-19 (a total of 32,491 during 2020–2022), all countries experienced excess deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (in total 11,610 excess deaths), and under-mortality due to respiratory diseases other than COVID-19 (in total 9878) and dementia (in total 8721). The excess mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was particularly pronounced in Finland and Norway in 2022, and the under-mortality due to dementia was particularly pronounced in Sweden in 2021–2022. In conclusion, while COVID-19 deaths emerge as the most apparent consequence of the pandemic, our findings suggest that mortality has also been influenced by substitutions between different causes of death and over time, as well as indirect consequences of COVID-19 infection and pandemic responses—albeit to different extents in the different countries.

Investigators often believe that relative effect measures conditional on covariates, such as risk ratios and mean ratios, are "transportable" across populations. Here, we examine the identification of causal effects in a target population using an assumption that conditional relative effect measures are transportable from a trial to the target population. We show that transportability for relative effect measures is largely incompatible with transportability for difference effect measures, unless the treatment has no effect on average or one is willing to make even stronger transportability assumptions that imply the transportability of both relative and difference effect measures. We then describe how marginal (population-averaged) causal estimands in a target population can be identified under the assumption of transportability of relative effect measures, when we are interested in the effectiveness of a new experimental treatment in a target population where the only treatment in use is the control treatment evaluated in the trial. We extend these results to consider cases where the control treatment evaluated in the trial is only one of the treatments in use in the target population, under an additional partial exchangeability assumption in the target population (i.e., an assumption of no unmeasured confounding in the target population with respect to potential outcomes under the control treatment in the trial). We also develop identification results that allow for the covariates needed for transportability of relative effect measures to be only a small subset of the covariates needed to control confounding in the target population. Last, we propose estimators that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software and illustrate their use using data from a comprehensive cohort study of stable ischemic heart disease.

The aim of the creation of this cohort was to investigate patterns of health and health care utilisation before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, overall and in relation to specific diagnoses, among people with intellectual disabilities (ID) compared to the general population. People living in Skåne, the southernmost region of Sweden, on 1st of January 2014 with at least one diagnosis of ID (ICD-10 codes F70-F79) or Down syndrome (DS; Q90), or support and/or services according to the LSS act comprised the ID cohort (n = 14 716). People living in the same family and/or household as a person in the ID cohort constituted the ID family cohort (n = 31 688), and those remaining comprised the general population cohort (gPop; n = 1 226 955). Data has been collected for all three cohorts from several national and regional registers. These include registers for health care (2014-2021), deaths (2014-2021), COVID-19-related health care (vaccinations, intensive care, palliative care, 2020-2021). The prevalence of ID was 1.2%. In the ID cohort, 77.9% had at least one measure of support, 5.8% at least one Q90-diagnosis and 63.8% had at least one F7-diagnosis (26.9% mild (F70), 7.4% moderate (F71), 2.8% severe (F72), 1.4% profound (F73), and 25.4% other/unknown (F78/F79)). Compared to the gPop there were more people in the younger age groups in the ID cohort. At this point, no additional collection of data will be carried out. However, there is a possibility to add data from the registers to include years after 2021 or from additional registers. Future publications will explore relevant research questions and report key findings in relation to health among people with ID. Future results will be used to inform policy and practice on people with ID.

Evidence regarding the role of hormonal contraception (HC) as a risk factor for attempted suicide is inconclusive. Thus, this study aimed to assess the associations of use of different types of systemic HC with the risk of attempted suicide in women aged 15-49 years. Data on a population-based cohort (n = 587,823) of HC users and non-users in 2017 was derived from national registers in Finland. In a nested case-control design we examined the risk of attempted suicide in relation to current HC use (past six months) via multivariable conditional logistic regression models. During the follow-up (from 2018 to 2019) there were 1.174,346 million person-years of which 818 cases of suicide attempts were observed (incidence rate: 0.70 per 1000 person-years). Use of HC, especially combined hormonal contraceptives, was not associated with a higher risk of attempted suicide compared to non-use (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.45-1.02) after controlling for marital status, socioeconomic status, education, chronic diseases, recent delivery, recent psychiatric hospitalizations, and current use of psychotropic medications. In women without psychiatric history, current HC use (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58-0.91), especially ethinylestradiol-containing preparations (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.40-0.73), was associated with a lower risk of attempted suicide. After adjusting for recent psychiatric hospitalizations and use of psychotropic medications, current use of progestin-only preparations was not associated with attempted suicide. In conclusion, current HC use was not associated with an increased risk of attempted suicide in fertile-aged women.

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) undergoes temporary changes around a mean proportion of 0.51 male births. SRB has been well studied for historical, geographical, and secular trends, but until now not linked to health outcomes in the total population, e.g. for cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality during follow-up of birth cohorts. We used linkage analysis based on national registers in Sweden that cover all births from 1900 to 2016. SRB at birth was calculated by every 10-year birth cohort in all survivors living in 1997 for a follow-up analysis of risk of CVD and mortality with data from national registers. When the highest quartile of SRB was used as reference, a slightly increased risk of fatal CVD (HR 1.03 (95% confidence intervals, CI): 1.02-1.04), non-fatal CVD (HR 1.01; 95%CI: 1.01-1.02) and mortality (HR 1.02; 95%CI, 1.01-1.03) was found after full adjustments in men belonging to the lowest SRB quartile. A similar pattern was also found for fatal CHD in women. in the lowest SBR quartile compared to the highest, HR 1.03 (95%CI: 1.02-1.05). In conclusion, in birth cohorts with a relatively lower than expected number of males born, long-term adverse health effects were observed with slightly increased cardiovascular risk and total mortality at the population level. This could indicate that men belonging to so-called "culled cohorts" in a developed country during the 20th century are characterized by a slightly increased risk that could reflect negative early life influences and environmental exposures in pregnant women resulting in selective loss of male embryos or fetuses. In a public health perspective SRB could be of some importance to monitor as an aspect of birth statistics linked to relatively minor population health effects.