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Of Interest? Estimating the Average Interest Rate on Debt across Firms and Over Time 感兴趣的?估算各公司和各时期的平均债务利率
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3866269
Motu Submitter, R. Fabling
We use tax data from the Longitudinal Business Database to estimate the firm-level average
interest rate on liabilities. The mean of this measure has similar time series properties to official
statistics on the business borrowing rate, while also enabling detailed disaggregation across
different firm types. We document significant variation in interest rate across firms in different
industries, and across firms with different apparent borrowing risk. Finally, we compare firms
self-reported views on whether they are finance-constrained to an estimated firm-specific
interest rate premium, showing that: finance-constrained firms have higher interest rate premia
than unconstrained firms; and that at least part of this difference in premia is explained by firm level
differences in risk between constrained and unconstrained firms.
我们使用纵向商业数据库中的税收数据来估计公司层面的平均负债利率。该指标的平均值与官方商业借贷利率统计数据具有相似的时间序列属性,同时还可以对不同类型的公司进行详细的分解。我们记录了不同行业的公司和具有不同表观借款风险的公司之间利率的显著差异。最后,我们比较了公司自我报告的关于他们是否受到财务约束的观点与估计的公司特定利率溢价,结果表明:财务约束的公司比不受约束的公司具有更高的利率溢价;保费的差异至少部分可以用受约束公司和不受约束公司之间的风险水平差异来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Populism and COVID-19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic 民粹主义与COVID-19:民粹主义政府如何(错误地)应对大流行
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3849284
M. Bayerlein, V. Boese, S. Gates, Katrin Kamin, S. Murshed
Populist parties and actors now govern various countries around the world. Often elected by the public in times of economic crises and over the perceived failure of the elites, the question stands as to how populist governments actually perform once elected. Using the pandemic shock in the form of the COVID-19 crises, our paper answers the question of how populist governments handle the pandemic. We answer this question by introducing a theoretical framework according to which (1) populist governments enact less far-reaching policy measures to counter the pandemic,(2) lower the effort of citizens to counter the pandemic, and are ultimately (3) hit worse by the pandemic. We test the propositions in a sample of 42 countries with weekly data from 2020. Employing econometric models, we find empirical support for our propositions and ultimately conclude that excess mortality exceeds the excess mortality of conventional countries by 10 percentage points (i.e., 100%). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of populist government performance in general as well as counter-pandemic measures in particular by providing evidence that opportunistic and inadequate policy responses as well as spreading misinformation and downplaying the pandemic are strongly related to increases in COVID-19 mortality.
民粹主义政党和行动者现在统治着世界上许多国家。民粹主义政府通常是在经济危机时期、在精英们明显失败的情况下由公众选出的,问题在于民粹主义政府一旦当选,实际表现如何。我们的论文以COVID-19危机的形式利用大流行的冲击,回答了民粹主义政府如何应对大流行的问题。我们通过引入一个理论框架来回答这个问题,根据这个理论框架,(1)民粹主义政府制定的对抗大流行的政策措施影响较小,(2)降低公民对抗大流行的努力,并最终(3)受大流行的打击更严重。我们在42个国家的样本中测试了这些命题,这些国家从2020年开始每周都有数据。采用计量经济模型,我们发现实证支持我们的主张,并最终得出结论,超额死亡率超过传统国家的超额死亡率10个百分点(即100%)。我们的研究结果对评估民粹主义政府的总体表现,特别是应对大流行的措施具有重要意义,因为它提供了证据,证明机会主义和不充分的政策反应,以及传播错误信息和淡化大流行与COVID-19死亡率的增加密切相关。
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引用次数: 27
Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe: The Use of Swaps 欧洲公共债务的可持续性:互换的使用
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3877458
C. Oldani, Bianca Giannini
This study contributes to the literature on public debt sustainability and investigates whether European
countries manage primary surplus also through interest rate swaps. Since the 1990s European countries
have extensively employed Over The Counter (OTC) contracts such as swaps to smooth the financial
costs of debt, shift part of debt forward, and exploit the lack of accounting transparency of these
contracts. One of the primary goals of the EU fiscal framework is to ensure public debt sustainability.
Several proposals have been considered to improve the current framework, yet none of them has
addressed the issue of debt sustainability when countries use swaps. This is the first empirical
investigation that confirms the use of swaps by European countries in the 2006-2018 period to improve
the primary balance. According to panel data results, EU countries increased the primary surplus in the
2006-2018 period following a rising debt and took corrective action by actively managing their debt with
swaps; this evidence is in line with the hypothesis of the strategic use of swaps by public administrations
widely described in the theoretical literature on debt management. Policy implications and proposals to
improve the current European fiscal framework are provided.
本研究对公共债务可持续性的文献做出了贡献,并调查了欧洲国家是否也通过利率互换来管理基本盈余。自20世纪90年代以来,欧洲国家已广泛采用场外交易(OTC)合约,如掉期,以平滑债务的财务成本,将部分债务转移,并利用这些合约缺乏会计透明度。欧盟财政框架的主要目标之一是确保公共债务的可持续性。已经考虑了几项改善当前框架的建议,但它们都没有解决国家使用互换时债务可持续性的问题。这是首次证实欧洲国家在2006-2018年期间使用掉期来改善基本平衡的实证调查。根据小组数据结果,欧盟国家在债务上升后,在2006-2018年期间增加了基本盈余,并采取了积极管理债务提取的纠正措施;这一证据与债务管理理论文献中广泛描述的公共行政部门战略性地使用互换的假设是一致的。提出了改善当前欧洲财政框架的政策含义和建议。
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引用次数: 0
The Capital Ratio and the Interest Rate Spread: The Panel Threshold Regression Approach 资本比率与利率差:面板阈值回归方法
Pub Date : 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3827297
M. Botshekan, A. Golbabaei
Using balanced annual observations of insured US commercial banks, this paper investigates the nonlinear impacts of the lagged capital ratio on the interest rate spread by employing the panel threshold regression model with one and two threshold variables which divide our sample into two and four regimes, respectively. The threshold variables we use are the change in capital ratio, the main components of change in the capital ratio, namely change in the capital or change in risk-weighted asset and ROE changes. In single threshold models, regimes that correspond to the higher change in capital ratio, higher contribution of capital to the change in capital ratio, and higher contribution of the risk-weighted asset to the change in the capital ratio show a stronger impact of the lagged capital ratio on the interest rate spread. In the case of using lagged ROE changes as threshold variable, surprisingly banks that are less exposed to the fall in ROE (as a result of increasing the capital ratio) tend more to raise the interest rate spread to offset the fall. In the panel threshold regression model with two threshold variables and four regimes, we find similar results.
本文利用美国参保商业银行的平衡年度观测数据,采用带有一个和两个阈值变量的面板阈值回归模型,将样本分别分为两个和四个制度,研究了滞后资本比率对利率息差的非线性影响。我们使用的阈值变量是资本比率的变化,资本比率变化的主要组成部分,即资本的变化或风险加权资产的变化和ROE的变化。在单门槛模型中,资本比率变化越大、资本对资本比率变化的贡献越大、风险加权资产对资本比率变化的贡献越大,对应的制度显示出滞后资本比率对利差的影响更强。在使用滞后ROE变化作为阈值变量的情况下,令人惊讶的是,较少受ROE下降影响的银行(由于增加资本比率)更倾向于提高利率利差来抵消下降。在具有两个阈值变量和四个机制的面板阈值回归模型中,我们发现了类似的结果。
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引用次数: 2
Revenue Generation in Nigeria through Taxation Versus Investment Attraction Through Tax Incentives: In Search of a Balance 尼日利亚通过税收创造收入与通过税收激励吸引投资:寻求平衡
Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3885954
Akinbobola Olukayode Olugbemi
This paper considers revenue generation in Nigeria from the government's perspective of increased and improved taxation as well as investment promotion. The paper considers amongst others, the different benefits and challenges to taxation in Nigeria as well as investment promotion and concludes that government should adopt a mix of both models.
本文从政府增加和改善税收以及促进投资的角度考虑尼日利亚的收入产生。本文考虑了尼日利亚税收和投资促进的不同好处和挑战,并得出结论,政府应该采用这两种模式的混合。
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引用次数: 0
Do Varying State Tax Rates Affect Athletic Performance? 不同的州税率会影响运动员的表现吗?
Pub Date : 2021-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3810974
Michael Conklin
Draft summary of a study conducted to measure whether NBA athletes perform better when in no-tax states compared to high-tax states due to a more positive attitude which has been shown to positively affect athletic performance.
一项旨在衡量NBA运动员在无税州是否比在高税州表现得更好的研究总结草案,因为更积极的态度已被证明对运动表现有积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Regions' Budgets in 2020: Support by the Federation and Anti-Crisis Policy 2020年地方预算:联邦支持与反危机政策
Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3805076
A. Deryugin
In 2020, the budget policy of the Russian Federation regarding regions had a strongly pronounced counter-cyclical nature aimed at immediate support of the worst-off subjects. This measure allowed to offset declining tax and non-tax revenues and ensure implementation of regional anti-crisis measures intended to strengthen the public health system, support of the economy and the social sphere. Proper tax and non-tax regions’ revenues contracted by merely 1.8%, which is a good result against the 2009 and 2014–2015 crises and was mainly due to a rebound in tax receipts in H2 2020. An all-time high public regional debt amounting to Rb2.5 trillion at the end of 2020 does not pose a serious threat for their budget stability owing to a relatively low debt burden.
2020年,俄罗斯联邦关于地区的预算政策具有明显的反周期性质,旨在立即支持最贫困的主体。这一措施可以抵消税收和非税收收入的下降,并确保实施旨在加强公共卫生系统、支持经济和社会领域的区域反危机措施。适当税收和非税收地区的收入仅收缩了1.8%,这与2009年和2014-2015年的危机相比是一个好结果,主要是由于2020年下半年税收收入的反弹。由于债务负担相对较低,2020年底达到2.5万亿卢布的历史最高公共区域债务并未对其预算稳定构成严重威胁。
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引用次数: 0
20 Taxes to Scrap: How to Grow the UK Economy by Simplyfying the Tax System 废除税收:如何通过简化税收制度来发展英国经济
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3850620
Institute of Economic Affairs Submitter
The five-year average tax burden in the UK is now at a 70-year high. The impact and opportunities of Brexit, coupled with the need to revitalise the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, mean 2021 would be a good time for the government to embark on a tax-cutting programme. This paper analyses twenty taxes that could be scrapped or significantly changed. If carried out, these reforms would simplify the tax system, reduce the overall burden of taxation, and eliminate harmful distortions that stifle the UK’s productivity and prosperity. The TV Licence, Inheritance Tax, Stamp Duty Land Tax, stamp duties on buying shares, Apprenticeship Levy, Vehicle Excise Duty, Capital Gains Tax, the bank surcharge, and duties on alcohol, tobacco, and gambling, could be scrapped. Other property taxes, such as Council Tax, Community Infrastructure Levy, business rates, and affordable housing and other s106 obligations, could be replaced with a single land value tax. Under this proposed system, disincentives for property improvements and housebuilding would be removed. The Climate Change Levy and renewables obligations add economic distortion and complexity to the tax system and could be revamped into either through the Emissions Trading Scheme or a comprehensive carbon tax. Corporation Tax and the Diverted Profit Tax could be replaced with a single tax on capital income administered at the corporate level, similar to how PAYE works on wages. Doing so would promote neutrality between capital income and labour, eliminate the debt-capital bias, and spur productivity growth.
英国5年平均税负目前处于70年来的最高水平。英国脱欧的影响和机遇,加上新冠肺炎危机后重振经济的需要,意味着2021年将是政府启动减税计划的好时机。本文分析了20种可以取消或大幅度改变的税种。如果实施,这些改革将简化税收体系,减轻总体税收负担,并消除扼杀英国生产力和繁荣的有害扭曲。电视牌照、遗产税、印花税、土地税、购买股票的印花税、学徒税、汽车消费税、资本利得税、银行附加税以及酒精、烟草和赌博税可能会被取消。其他财产税,如市政税、社区基础设施税、营业税、经济适用房和其他义务,可以用单一的土地价值税取代。在这一拟议的制度下,对物业改善和房屋建设的阻碍因素将被取消。气候变化税和可再生能源义务增加了税收体系的经济扭曲和复杂性,可以通过排放交易计划或综合碳税进行改革。公司税和转移利得税可以被单一的资本收入税取代,在公司层面进行管理,类似于PAYE对工资的运作方式。这样做将促进资本收入和劳动力之间的中立,消除债务-资本偏见,并刺激生产率增长。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Offset in the Collection of Federal Taxes 抵消在联邦税收征收中的作用
Pub Date : 2021-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3793183
Keith Fogg
The legal principle of offset has played a key role in debt collection by private parties for centuries. In 2021, offset continues to play an equally essential role in the United States government’s collection of debts owed to it, accounting for billions of dollars in funds taken from outgoing payments. The right of offset arises when two parties owe each other debts. The party asserting offset can subtract what is owed to them from what they owe, allowing the parties to avoid an unnecessary transaction. Offset thus makes intuitive sense, simplifying two payment flows into one. But offset becomes far more complex when one of the parties is the federal government, which is unlike a traditional private creditor in important ways. Offset has perhaps its largest impact in the tax system, where Congress has legislated that the Internal Revenue Service (the “Service”) has the authority (and sometimes, the mandate) to offset tax refunds. Refunds are commonly offset when a taxpayer owes prior year tax liabilities, other agency debts (e.g., student loans), state taxes or past-due child support. Despite its frequent use by the Service, offset is subject to minimal procedural protections, likely due to its origin in longstanding common law doctrine. Unlike other forms of tax collection, offset does not carry a right to prepayment judicial review in Tax Court. Nor does offset require the Service to issue a notice to the taxpayer prior to taking collection action. Courts also treat offset inconsistently when the applicable taxpayer/debtor is protected by a collection stay under Title 26 or Title 11, allowing offset in some scenarios and denying it in others. Finally, Congress and the Service have often failed to use their authority to make offset more equitable, particularly as applied to low-income taxpayers. The Service has a limited administrative remedy available for taxpayers to affirmatively request bypass from the offset of their refund to a tax debt. But the remedy is little-publicized, little-used and difficult to administer. During the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, Congress legislatively protected advance stimulus payments from some forms of offset. But Congress failed to make that protection expansive or to extend it to conventional tax refunds, both of which would have put needed funds in the hands of millions of taxpayers during an economic crisis. Similarly, the Service declined to exercise its statutory discretion to systemically suspend offset of conventional tax refunds to past tax liabilities. These issues extend to payments of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which are subject to offset. Both Congress and the Service have failed to acknowledge the EITC’s unique nature as a type of public benefit, treating it instead as a conventional tax refund subject to offset. This disproportionately hurts the low-income taxpayers, and their children, that the EITC was enacted to benefit. I argue that policymakers should pay closer attention to of
几个世纪以来,抵销的法律原则在私人债务催收中发挥了关键作用。2021年,抵消在美国政府的债务收集中继续发挥同样重要的作用,占到数十亿美元的支出资金。抵销权发生在双方互相欠债的情况下。主张抵消的一方可以从他们所欠的债务中减去欠他们的债务,从而使双方避免不必要的交易。因此,抵消有了直观的意义,将两个支付流程简化为一个。但当其中一方是联邦政府时,抵消就变得复杂得多,因为联邦政府在很多重要方面不同于传统的私人债权人。抵消可能对税收系统的影响最大,国会立法规定美国国税局(简称“国税局”)有权(有时是被授权)抵消退税。当纳税人欠上一年的税款、其他机构债务(如学生贷款)、州税或过期的子女抚养费时,退款通常会被抵消。尽管事务处经常使用抵销法,但它受到的程序保护很少,这可能是由于它起源于长期存在的普通法原则。与其他形式的税收征收不同,抵销不具有在税务法院进行预缴司法审查的权利。抵销也不要求税务局在采取催收行动之前向纳税人发出通知。当适用的纳税人/债务人受到标题26或标题11的托收暂缓保护时,法院对抵销的处理也不一致,在某些情况下允许抵销,在其他情况下拒绝抵销。最后,国会和税务事务处经常未能利用它们的权力使补偿更加公平,特别是对低收入纳税人而言。税务处有一种有限的行政补救办法,纳税人可以肯定地要求将其退款抵扣为税款债务。但这种治疗方法很少被宣传,很少被使用,而且很难实施。在2019冠状病毒病大流行和经济衰退期间,国会通过立法保护提前刺激支出不受某些形式的抵消。但国会没有扩大这一保护,也没有将其扩展到传统的退税,这两项措施都将在经济危机期间为数百万纳税人提供所需的资金。同样,该处拒绝行使其法定裁量权,有系统地暂停将传统退税抵销过去的纳税义务。这些问题延伸到劳动所得税抵免(EITC)的支付,这是要抵消的。国会和国税局都没有承认EITC作为一种公共福利的独特性质,而是将其视为一种需要抵消的传统退税。这极大地伤害了低收入纳税人和他们的孩子,而EITC是为了让他们受益而制定的。我认为,政策制定者应该更加关注碳抵消,并做出必要的改变,以更公平、更合理的方式应用碳抵消。
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引用次数: 0
Italia Economia a Fine 2020 (Italy - At the Close of 2020) 2020年意大利经济展望(意大利- 2020年底)
Pub Date : 2021-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3792763
Maurizio Mazziero, A. Lawford, Gabriele Serafini
Italian Abstract: Ricerca sulla situazione economica italiana basata sui dati economici ufficiali; vengono analizzati e confrontati con il passato il debito pubblico, le riserve ufficiali, il PIL, l'inflazione e la disoccupazione.

English Abstract: Research into the state of the Italian economy based on official economic data; the current Sovereign Debt, Official Reserves, GDP, Inflation and Unemployment situation is presented and and compared with the past.

Note: Downloadable document is in Italian.
意大利摘要:根据官方经济数据对意大利经济形势进行研究;对公共债务、官方储备、国内生产总值、通货膨胀和失业进行分析和比较。英语摘要:根据官方经济数据对意大利经济状况的研究;当前的债务负担、官方保留、GDP、通货膨胀和失业情况已经呈现,并与过去进行了比较。注:下载文件是英文的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal
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