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The Nexus among External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia 外债与经济增长的关系:来自南亚的证据
Pub Date : 2020-09-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3696553
Sasindu Wanniarachchi
Over the past few years, external debt positions of South Asian economies have increased to alarming levels, indicating that those countries are more likely to be exposed to a debt crisis. Given the low domestic savings rate of these economies, they are increasingly compelled to invest significant resources in public infrastructure in order to maintain sustainable growth momentum. At the same time, those countries are invited to enrich by integrating with global synergies in the fields of maritime, trade, and financial initiatives. However, as the recent controversy over the debt-growth association is inconclusive to date; preserving the external debt exposures at an optimal level is incumbent. Consequently, this study reviews annual observations of independent cross-sections of South Asia during the period 1981-2017 in order to find the external debt-growth relationship. In addition, the quantitative research strategy used to measure the expected outcomes primarily consists of panel ARDL specifications. On aggregate levels of data, the results suggest that there is a statistically significant negative association between external debt and economic growth. Also, it has been observed that a significant nonlinear relationship exists in relation to lower-middle income countries.
在过去几年中,南亚经济体的外债状况已增加到令人震惊的水平,表明这些国家更有可能面临债务危机。鉴于这些经济体的国内储蓄率较低,它们越来越被迫将大量资源投资于公共基础设施,以保持可持续的增长势头。同时,邀请这些国家在海上、贸易、金融等领域融入全球协同效应,丰富自身内涵。然而,由于最近关于债务增长关联的争论至今尚无定论;将外债敞口保持在最佳水平是义不容咎的。因此,本研究回顾了1981-2017年南亚独立横截面的年度观测结果,以找到外债-增长关系。此外,用于测量预期结果的定量研究策略主要由面板ARDL规范组成。在总体数据水平上,结果表明,外债与经济增长之间存在统计学上显著的负相关关系。此外,人们还观察到,与中低收入国家之间存在显著的非线性关系。
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引用次数: 0
Taxes: A Simple Scheme 税收:一个简单的计划
Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3403779
E. Fama
Government does lots of redistribution along with expenditures for defense, education, etc. Government imposes income taxes to finance these activities. Income taxation can be done to raise revenue in a simple transparent way. Here’s a suggested scheme.
政府在国防、教育等方面的支出中进行了大量的再分配。政府征收所得税来资助这些活动。所得税可以以一种简单透明的方式增加收入。这里有一个建议方案。
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引用次数: 1
Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity 重大不良事件对生产力的影响
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3699683
A. Dieppe, Sinem Kilic Celik, Cédric Okou
Since 2000, there have been three major global slowdowns, with the latest and most pronounced episode triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, many countries have faced major adverse events including natural disasters, wars, and financial crises, all of which can lead to long-lasting harm to productivity. Wars inflict particularly severe damage to productivity, while financial crises also lead to substantial losses, especially accompanied by a rapid build-up of debt. The greater frequency of natural disasters, especially climate disasters, means that they have the largest aggregate impact on productivity, as natural disasters have occurred most often and their frequency has doubled since 2000. Global adverse events can have large sustained negative effects on productivity through dislocating labor, tightening of credit, disrupting value chains, and decreasing innovation. Policies to counter the negative consequences of adverse shocks include accommodative fiscal policies, such as reconstruction spending on resilient infrastructure; transparent governance; efficient use of relief funds; as well as growth-friendly structural reforms. Appropriate policies and regulations concerning finance, construction, and environmental protection can help reduce the frequency of adverse shocks.
自2000年以来,全球经济出现了三次重大放缓,最近一次也是最明显的一次是由COVID-19大流行引发的。与此同时,许多国家面临重大不利事件,包括自然灾害、战争和金融危机,所有这些都可能对生产力造成长期损害。战争对生产力造成特别严重的破坏,而金融危机也会造成巨大损失,尤其是伴随着债务的迅速积累。自然灾害,特别是气候灾害发生的频率越高,意味着它们对生产力的总体影响越大,因为自然灾害发生的频率越高,自2000年以来发生的频率也增加了一倍。全球不利事件可以通过扰乱劳动力、收紧信贷、破坏价值链和减少创新,对生产率产生持续的巨大负面影响。应对不利冲击负面影响的政策包括:宽松的财政政策,如对韧性基础设施的重建支出;透明的治理;有效利用救济资金;以及有利于增长的结构性改革。适当的金融、建设、环保等方面的政策法规有助于减少不利冲击的发生频率。
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引用次数: 12
Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non-Linear Effects of Short-Time Work Policy 危机中应对失业:短期工作政策的非线性效应
Pub Date : 2020-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/SJOE.12395
Britta Gehrke, Brigitte Hochmuth
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short-time work are strongly time dependent and non-linear over the business cycle. It may save up to 0.8 jobs per short-time worker in deep economic crises. The policy becomes more efficient as the recession deepens. In expansions, the effects are smaller and may turn negative. We disentangle discretionary short-time work from automatic stabilization in German data using smooth transition VARs.
短期工作制是一项劳动力市场政策,它为经济困难的企业减少工作时间提供补贴,以防止裁员。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的许多国家在大衰退期间都采用了这一政策。本文表明,短时工作的影响在经济周期中具有强烈的时间依赖性和非线性。在严重的经济危机中,每名临时工最多可以挽救0.8个工作岗位。随着经济衰退的加深,该政策变得更加有效。在扩张中,影响较小,可能转为负面。我们使用平滑过渡var从德国数据的自动稳定中分离出任意的短时间工作。
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引用次数: 21
On the Lessons to Be Learned From the 1983 Supreme Court Case ‘Container Corporation of America v. Franchise Tax Board’ for the Discussion of International Taxation in 2020 1983年美国集装箱公司诉特许经营税委员会案对2020年国际税收讨论的启示
Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3676190
O. Treidler
In the realm of international taxation, one of the most important contemporary issues to be addressed, from a political as well as from a technical perspective, is the question whether the arm’s length standard should be preserved as the paradigm for international transfer pricing, or whether we need a new measuring-rod (i.e. formulary apportionment) for an “appropriate” allocation of the tax base between the different jurisdictions.

What is intriguing about the arm's length standard vs. formulary apportionment debate is that it is ongoing for decades. One of the most vivid confrontations can be found in the 1983 Supreme Court Case ‘Container Corporation of America v. Franchise Tax Board’. As will be shown in this paper, many of the arguments exchanged in ‘Container v. Franchise Tax Board’ remain valid for the contemporary discussion - as the question of a taxable nexus as well as the question of a “fair” taxation in a national context are addressed. It will also be instructive to consider the 1983 perspective on double-taxation resulting from a simultaneous application of formulary apportionment by one jurisdiction while other jurisdictions adhere to the arm's length standard.
在国际税收领域,从政治和技术角度来看,需要解决的最重要的当代问题之一是,是否应该保留臂距标准作为国际转让定价的范例,或者我们是否需要一个新的衡量标准(即公式分摊),以便在不同司法管辖区之间“适当”分配税基。关于一臂之长标准与公式分配的争论有趣之处在于,它已经持续了几十年。1983年最高法院的“美国集装箱公司诉特许经营税局案”是最生动的对抗之一。正如本文将展示的,“集装箱诉特许经营税委员会”中交换的许多论点仍然适用于当代的讨论,因为应税关系的问题以及在国家背景下“公平”征税的问题都得到了解决。考虑1983年对双重征税的看法也将是有益的,因为一个司法管辖区同时适用公式分摊,而其他司法管辖区则坚持公平的标准。
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引用次数: 0
Crack Taxes and the Dangers of Insidious Regulatory Taxes 破解税收和潜在监管税的危险
Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3665440
H. Holderness
Courts have long held the utmost respect for tax laws, reflecting a recognition that the revenue-raising function of taxes allows legislators to distribute the burden of funding the government as they see fit. Unelected judges, the sentiment goes, should thus be hesitant to trifle with tax laws. However, taxes are also used to regulate individual behavior, but in such cases, rather than protect individuals’ rights as they would in the case of direct regulations, courts continue to defer to the institutional interests in taxation. The problems with this approach are highlighted by state-level controlled substance taxes, which impose taxes on individuals engaging in the criminal possession and sale of illegal drugs without providing those individuals the protections of the criminal law. Courts need a new framework for determining the amount of deference such insidious regulatory taxes are owed in order to remove the incentive for legislators to utilize tax laws to skirt important legal protections for members of society, and this Article taps modern tax expenditure analysis to provide such a framework.
长期以来,法院对税法给予了最大的尊重,这反映出一种认识,即税收的增收功能允许立法者按照他们认为合适的方式分配政府的资金负担。这种观点认为,非选举产生的法官在玩弄税法时应该有所顾忌。然而,税收也被用来规范个人行为,但在这种情况下,法院在税收方面继续服从机构利益,而不是像在直接监管的情况下那样保护个人权利。这种做法的问题在州一级的管制物质税中得到突出体现,这种税对从事非法拥有和销售毒品的个人征税,但不向这些个人提供刑法的保护。法院需要一个新的框架来确定这种隐蔽的监管税所欠的尊重程度,以消除立法者利用税法规避对社会成员重要法律保护的动机,本文利用现代税收支出分析来提供这样一个框架。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Financial Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies, 2010-17 发达经济体非金融企业债务,2010- 2017
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513549200.001
Luiza Antoun de Almeida, T. Tressel
This paper studies the evolution of non-financial corporate debt among publicly listed companies in major advanced economies between 2010 and 2017. Since 2010, firms have started to rely more on corporate bond markets and have used part of their debt to increase their holdings of cash. In our sample of some 5,000 firms, we find substantial differences across countries, industries, firms, and years in leverage and debt maturity, and we also identify time factors that are common drivers of capital structures. Within countries, loosening an index of financial conditions seems to be associated with lengthening debt maturity after controlling for firms’ characteristics. Across firms and countries, leveraging and lengthening debt maturity have been greater where economic growth was stronger. Tighter financial conditions are positively associated with an increase in short-term debt financing. Quantile regressions suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity among firms on how they react to macro-financial conditions: large increases in long-term debt financing and large declines in short-term debt financing tend to be driven more by better macroeconomic performance, while large increases in short-term debt financing are more strongly impacted by tighter financial conditions. Since the paper uses data up to 2017, it does not reflect developments that occurred during the coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, sensitivity analysis shows that a significant amount of corporate debt, representing more than 5 percent of GDP, could be at risk in some countries, with an adverse spillover to the financial system if financial conditions tighten or economic growth slows down. This suggests that vulnerabilities should be closely monitored and policy action taken if warranted.
本文研究了2010 - 2017年主要发达经济体上市公司非金融企业债务的演变。自2010年以来,企业开始更多地依赖公司债券市场,并利用部分债务来增加现金持有量。在我们约5000家公司的样本中,我们发现不同国家、行业、公司和年份在杠杆率和债务期限方面存在重大差异,我们还确定了时间因素是资本结构的共同驱动因素。在国家内部,在控制了公司特征后,放松金融状况指数似乎与延长债务期限有关。在企业和国家中,越是经济增长强劲,举债和延长债务期限的做法就越普遍。财政状况的收紧与短期债务融资的增加呈正相关。分位数回归表明,企业对宏观金融状况的反应存在很大的异质性:长期债务融资的大幅增加和短期债务融资的大幅下降往往更多地受到宏观经济表现改善的驱动,而短期债务融资的大幅增加则受到金融状况收紧的更强烈影响。由于该论文使用的是截至2017年的数据,因此无法反映冠状病毒大流行期间的事态发展。尽管如此,敏感性分析表明,在一些国家,占国内生产总值5%以上的大量企业债务可能面临风险,如果金融环境收紧或经济增长放缓,将对金融体系产生不利的溢出效应。这表明应密切监测脆弱性,并在必要时采取政策行动。
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引用次数: 3
Bank Capital Regulation in a Zero Interest Environment 零利率环境下的银行资本监管
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3123044
Robin Döttling
How do near-zero deposit rates affect (optimal) bank capital regulation and risk taking? I study these questions in a tractable, dynamic equilibrium model, in which forward-looking banks compete imperfectly for deposit funding, subject to a (zero) lower bound constraint on deposit rates (ZLB). At the ZLB, capital requirements become less effective in curbing excessive risk-taking incentives, as they disproportionately hurt franchise values. As a consequence, optimal dynamic capital requirements vary with the level of interest rates if the ZLB binds occasionally. Subsidizing bank funding costs at the ZLB dampens risk-taking, but may reduce overall welfare.
接近于零的存款利率如何影响(最优)银行资本监管和风险承担?我在一个易于处理的动态均衡模型中研究了这些问题,在这个模型中,前瞻性银行在存款利率(ZLB)的下限约束下,不完全竞争存款资金。在ZLB,资本要求在抑制过度冒险激励方面变得不那么有效,因为它们严重损害了特许经营价值。因此,如果ZLB偶尔绑定,则最优动态资本要求随利率水平而变化。补贴ZLB的银行融资成本会抑制风险,但可能会降低整体福利。
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引用次数: 4
Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria: Internal or External Driven? 非居民持有尼日利亚国内债务:内部驱动还是外部驱动?
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513545370.001
A. Hosny
Foreign holdings of domestic debt instruments in Nigeria have been increasing. Using data over 2007M1-2019M1, we show that, on average, global factors (global interest rates, oil prices) seem to carry more weight than domestic factors (treasury bills rate and domestic risk) in foreign portfolio invetsors’ decisions in Nigeria. Specifically, we show that foreign participation is, in the long run, positively correlated with oil prices and profitable rates of return on local-currency instruments, but negatively correlated with exchange rate depreciation pressures. In the short run, oil prices, opportunity cost of funds and perception of Nigeria-specific risks also play a role. These results highlight the volatile short-term nature of such flows and call for a package of policy reforms to attract longer term direct investments.
外国持有的尼日利亚国内债务工具一直在增加。使用2007年m1 -2019年m1的数据,我们表明,平均而言,在外国投资组合投资者在尼日利亚的决策中,全球因素(全球利率、油价)似乎比国内因素(国库券利率和国内风险)更重要。具体而言,我们表明,从长远来看,外国参与与油价和本币工具的收益率呈正相关,但与汇率贬值压力负相关。从短期来看,油价、资金的机会成本和对尼日利亚特有风险的看法也发挥了作用。这些结果突出了这种流动的短期波动性,并呼吁进行一揽子政策改革,以吸引长期直接投资。
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引用次数: 1
Taxes and IPO Pricing: Evidence from U.S. Tax Reform 税收与IPO定价:来自美国税制改革的证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3582280
A. Edwards, Michelle Hutchens
This study examines when and how tax reform impacts the pricing of IPOs. Using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), we examine IPO pricing during the periods of anticipated and post-tax reform. First, we document that firms completing an IPO following the passage of the TCJA experience an increase in valuation. The increase in valuation is significantly lower for firms with net deferred tax assets and U.S. based multinational firms, consistent with those firms benefiting less from the reform. Second, we fail to document an increase in valuation for firms completing their IPO during the period of anticipated tax reform. We further observe that firms did not experience an increased probability of an upward pricing revision during the book-building process during this period, suggesting that the IPO market was unwilling to impound the benefits of anticipated tax reform into offer prices until enactment. This result contrasts with research on the pricing of tax reform for existing publicly traded stock, where prices impound the anticipated benefits from tax reform, far in advance of enactment.
本研究考察了税收改革何时以及如何影响ipo定价。利用2017年减税和就业法案(TCJA),我们研究了预期税改和税改后期间的IPO定价。首先,我们记录了在TCJA通过后完成IPO的公司经历了估值的增加。拥有净递延所得税资产的公司和美国跨国公司的估值增幅明显较低,这与那些从改革中受益较少的公司一致。其次,我们没有记录在预期的税收改革期间完成IPO的公司估值的增加。我们进一步观察到,在此期间,公司在簿记过程中没有经历向上定价修正的可能性增加,这表明IPO市场不愿意将预期的税收改革的好处冻结到发行价格中,直到颁布。这一结果与对现有公开交易股票的税制改革定价的研究形成了对比,后者的价格在税制改革颁布之前就已经将预期的好处封存了。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal
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