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Silence is Golden: Railroad Noise Pollution and Property Values 沉默是金:铁路噪音污染与财产价值
Pub Date : 2016-01-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2622947
Jay K. Walker
This paper uses a unique dataset containing property values and manually collected noise measurements in Memphis, Tennessee to estimate the impact of train noise pollution on commercial and residential property values. Results show that a residential property exposed to 65 decibels or greater of railroad noise results in a 14 to 18 percent decrease in property value. Once a 65 decibel measure is included, there is no additional impact on price of distance to the closest railroad crossing. For commercial property, neither crossing proximity nor noise level significantly affect property value. The results provide evidence of a negative externality that is created by railroad noise for households and the need for more exact measures of noise levels. The findings are also consistent with previous literature suggesting firms have different ideas than individuals about desirable locational attributes.
本文使用了一个独特的数据集,其中包含田纳西州孟菲斯的财产价值和人工收集的噪音测量值,以估计火车噪音污染对商业和住宅财产价值的影响。结果表明,暴露在65分贝或更高的铁路噪音下的住宅物业会导致物业价值下降14%至18%。一旦包括65分贝的测量,到最近的铁路道口的距离对价格没有额外的影响。就商业物业而言,交通距离和噪音水平都不会显著影响物业价值。结果提供了铁路噪声对家庭产生负外部性的证据,以及对噪声水平进行更精确测量的必要性。这一发现也与先前的文献一致,即企业与个人对理想的位置属性有不同的看法。
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引用次数: 7
The Need for Flexible Take-Ups of Home Equity and Pension Wealth in Retirement 退休后对房屋净值和养老金财富灵活吸收的需求
Pub Date : 2016-01-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2727781
Jori Arts, Eduard H. M. Ponds
This paper analyzes for the Netherlands the need to introduce flexible take-ups of home equity and pension wealth, complementary to recent reforms in Dutch pensions and mortgages. The young may gain from supplementing a possible pension shortfall with additional retirement income from reverse mortgage contracts. The elderly may benefit of the innovation of partial lump sum of accrued pension rights in order to partly redeem mortgage debt, whilst maintaining an adequate net replacement rate from pensions.
本文分析了荷兰需要引入灵活的房屋净值和养老金财富,以补充荷兰最近的养老金和抵押贷款改革。年轻人可能会从反向抵押贷款合同中获得额外的退休收入,从而弥补可能出现的养老金缺口。长者可受惠于部分累积退休金权益的创新,以部分赎回按揭债务,同时维持足够的退休金净替代率。
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引用次数: 2
The Impact of Housing Credit on Personal Bankruptcy 住房信贷对个人破产的影响
Pub Date : 2016-01-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2588145
Sumit Agarwal, Changcheng Song
We use a linked housing transaction dataset and a personal bankruptcy dataset to study the impact of housing credit on personal bankruptcy in Singapore. Using a difference-in-differences (DD) approach, we find that an increase in housing credit increases the monthly installment by 560-900 Singapore dollar, and increases the likelihood of personal bankruptcy by 0.15-0.22 percentage points for house buyers who have more exposure to the housing credit increase. To investigate the mechanisms, we show that the observed effect is unlikely to be driven by composition and selection of irresponsible buyers. The effect is mainly due to the increasing debt burden.
我们使用关联的住房交易数据集和个人破产数据集来研究新加坡住房信贷对个人破产的影响。使用差异中的差异(DD)方法,我们发现住房信贷的增加使每月分期付款增加560-900新加坡元,并使住房信贷增加的购房者的个人破产可能性增加0.15-0.22个百分点。为了探讨其机制,我们表明所观察到的效应不太可能由不负责任买家的构成和选择驱动。这种影响主要是由于债务负担的增加。
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引用次数: 5
Real Estate Indices and Unsmoothing Techniques 房地产指数和非平滑技术
Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3628823
Urbi Garay
Real estate indices are an increasingly important aspect of real estate investment management. The uses of these indices include the estimation of risks and returns for assisting the asset allocation decision-making process, as well as the specification of benchmarks for performance attribution. Performance attribution provides valuable information both for bottom-up investment management (e.g., in the selection of properties or managers) and for top-down investment management (in the determination of allocation to various categories of real estate investments). The two main approaches to indexation are appraisal-based and transaction-based, each of which has its own potential problems. The chapter compares these approaches and reviews many of the most popular real estate indices, which vary in terms of methodology used. The prevalence of a variety of indexation methodologies highlights the fact that all methodologies have nontrivial problems and that real estate analysts should be aware of the challenges associated with each methodology. The first part of this chapter discusses un-smoothing of a price index or return series — the process of removing the effects of smoothing from a data series. It begins by introducing smoothed pricing and the principles of un-smoothing. The chapter also explains transaction noise, which arises when real estate transaction prices contain errors that make those prices less reliable when compared to prices of more liquid assets. For example, the reported transaction prices result from a negotiation process between buyers and sellers and therefore represent one set of possible values from a range of prices that would have been acceptable to both buyers and sellers. Transaction noise is another important technical issue when dealing with real estate indices. Property values are noisy (in the sense that they reflect random error) because empirical real estate values are imprecise indicators of true value. Finally, the chapter discusses the performance of various appraisal-based and transaction-based real estate indices.
房地产指数是房地产投资管理的一个日益重要的方面。这些指数的用途包括对风险和回报的估计,以协助资产配置决策过程,以及对业绩归因基准的说明。绩效归因为自下而上的投资管理(例如,在选择物业或经理时)和自上而下的投资管理(在确定分配给各种房地产投资类别时)提供了有价值的信息。指数化的两种主要方法是基于评估的方法和基于交易的方法,每种方法都有其潜在的问题。本章比较了这些方法,并回顾了许多最流行的房地产指数,这些指数在使用的方法方面有所不同。各种指数化方法的流行突出了这样一个事实,即所有的方法都有重要的问题,房地产分析师应该意识到与每种方法相关的挑战。本章的第一部分讨论了价格指数或收益序列的非平滑-从数据序列中去除平滑影响的过程。首先介绍平滑定价和非平滑原则。本章还解释了交易噪音,当房地产交易价格包含错误,使这些价格与流动性更强的资产价格相比不那么可靠时,就会出现交易噪音。例如,报告的交易价格是买卖双方谈判过程的结果,因此代表了买卖双方都能接受的一系列价格中的一组可能值。在处理房地产指数时,交易噪声是另一个重要的技术问题。房地产价值是有噪声的(从某种意义上说,它们反映了随机误差),因为经验房地产价值是真实价值的不精确指标。最后,本章讨论了各种基于估价和基于交易的房地产指数的表现。
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引用次数: 0
La Demanda Potencial De Vivienda Principal (Potential Demand of Primary Dwellings) 初级住宅潜在需求(La Demanda Potential De Vivienda Principal)
Pub Date : 2015-11-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2692047
María de los Llanos Matea
Spanish Abstract: En el documento se utiliza el metodo de las tasas de jefatura para elaborar diversos escenarios de creacion neta de hogares y, por extension, de la demanda de vivienda principal en Espana hasta finales de la proxima decada. Para ello, se toma la "Proyeccion de Hogares" del INE como el escenario base y se plantean diferentes escenarios, bajo distintos supuestos, acerca del ritmo de creacion de hogares y del flujo de entrada de inmigrantes. Todos los escenarios ofrecen una demanda potencial de vivienda muy alejada de las 427.000 que se registraron entre 2002 y 2008, situando la horquilla entre las 63.000 y las 236.000 viviendas por ano.English Abstract: The paper uses the headship rate method to draw up various scenarios of net household formation and, by extension, of the demand for primary dwellings in Spain to 2029. INE’s Household Projection is taken as a baseline scenario and different scenarios are prepared, under different assumptions about the pace of household formation and immigrant inflows. All the scenarios present a potential demand for dwellings far removed from the figure of 427,000 recorded between 2002 and 2008, placing the range between 63,000 and 236,000 dwellings per year.
西班牙语摘要:本文使用户主比率方法来阐述西班牙到下一个十年末的主要住房需求的各种净创造情景。本文提出了一种方法,在这种方法中,家庭的创建和移民的流入是由国家统计局(INE)的“家庭预测”决定的。在所有情况下,潜在的住房需求都远远低于2002年至2008年期间的42.7万套,即每年6.3万至23.6万套。英文摘要:本文采用了户主费率法,对西班牙到2029年的家庭净形成和初级住宅需求进行了各种设想。国家统计局的家庭预测作为基线情景,并根据关于家庭形成和移民涌入速度的不同假设拟定了不同的情景。所有情景都表明,对住宅的潜在需求远远低于2002年至2008年期间记录的42.7万套住宅的数字,使其范围在每年6.3万至23.6万套住宅之间。
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引用次数: 1
Out of the Frying Pan – in to the Fire: The Case of Adjustable Rate Mortgage for Funding of Homes of the Underprivileged 出了煎锅,又进了火:可调利率抵押贷款为贫困家庭提供资金的案例
Pub Date : 2015-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2676172
Muhammad Arsalan Aqeeq
The topic of Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) in its first glimpse, takes us to the reader of terms like Global Financial Crisis, Meltdown, Subprime crisis and its horrors. Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – The greatest of all financial crisis after the great depression of 1930, emancipated from a complicated interplay of policy to improve home ownership, by greater credit supply, laxed terms, overoptimistic assumption of real estate growth, predatory lending stunts instincts, and option to offload the balance sheet by securitization, poor remuneration to promote short term gain versus long-term value and last but not the least and macro-prudential governance shortfalls. The reason we discuss GFC here is that ARM were employed by Financial Institutions to finance the subprime i.e. the under-privileged. So did it work? No, it actually coasted them a USD 4.1 Trillion losses, 9 Million families displaced and thousands unemployed. Notwithstanding the fact that, a lot many other factors such as weak underwriting, monetary tightening, moral hazard across the value chain, unrealistic assumption on real estate valuation contributed to the GFC. Farhi, E., & Tirole, J. (2009) termed the GFC as Collective Moral Hazard while reviewing the role of macro prudential regulation, Interest rates, Lender and Investment Banks. This article would assess the structural dynamics of ARMs and subsequently rationalize its inability to alleviate or address the financing needs of the underprivileged.
可调利率抵押贷款(ARM)这一主题的第一眼,就把我们带到了像全球金融危机、崩溃、次贷危机及其恐怖等术语的读者面前。全球金融危机(GFC)——1930年大萧条之后最严重的金融危机,通过更多的信贷供应、宽松的条款、对房地产增长的过于乐观的假设、掠夺性贷款的本能以及通过证券化减轻资产负债表负担的选择,从改善住房所有权的复杂政策相互作用中解放出来。为了促进短期收益而非长期价值而提供的低薪酬,以及最后但并非最不重要的一点,以及宏观审慎治理的不足。我们在这里讨论全球金融危机的原因是,ARM被金融机构雇用,为次级贷款(即弱势群体)提供融资。那么,它起作用了吗?不,它实际上给他们造成了4.1万亿美元的损失,900万个家庭流离失所,数千人失业。尽管事实是,许多其他因素,如承销不力、货币紧缩、整个价值链的道德风险、对房地产估值的不切实际假设,都促成了全球金融危机。Farhi, E., & Tirole, J.(2009)在回顾宏观审慎监管、利率、贷方和投资银行的作用时,将全球金融危机称为集体道德风险。本文将评估ARMs的结构动态,并随后合理化其无法减轻或解决弱势群体的融资需求。
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引用次数: 0
Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the United States and the Netherlands 住房市场的紧缩能帮助预测随后的房价升值吗?来自美国和荷兰的证据
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12082
Paul E. Carrillo, Erik R. de Wit, W. Larson
This article assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search‐and‐matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent home price appreciation. The empirical analysis employs listings data on residential units offered for sale through a real estate broker in the Netherlands and for certain U.S. regions. Individual records are used to construct quarterly home price indices, an index that measures seller's bargaining power and (quality‐adjusted) home sale probabilities. Using conventional time‐series models we show that current sale probabilities and bargaining power can significantly reduce home price appreciation forecast errors and help to predict turning points in local area housing markets. The measures and approaches in this article help to demonstrate ways in which researchers and practitioners can leverage listings data to gain knowledge about the current and future state of the housing market.
本文评估了衡量市场紧张程度的变量的预测能力,如卖方的议价能力和销售概率,对未来房价的预测能力。从一个程式化的搜索和匹配模型的理论见解表明,这些指标可以与随后的房价升值相关联。实证分析采用了荷兰和美国某些地区的房地产经纪人提供的待售住宅单元的清单数据。个人记录用于构建季度房价指数,该指数衡量卖方的议价能力和(经质量调整的)房屋销售概率。使用传统的时间序列模型,我们发现当前的销售概率和议价能力可以显著降低房价升值预测误差,并有助于预测当地住房市场的拐点。本文中的措施和方法有助于展示研究人员和从业人员如何利用房源数据来获取有关房地产市场当前和未来状况的知识。
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引用次数: 27
An Analysis of Default Risk in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) Program 房屋净值转换抵押贷款(HECM)项目的违约风险分析
Pub Date : 2015-08-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2468247
Stephanie Moulton, D. Haurin, Wei Shi
While reverse mortgages are intended as a tool to enable financial security for older homeowners, in 2014, nearly 12 percent of reverse mortgage borrowers in the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program were in default on their property taxes or homeowners insurance. Unlike the traditional mortgage market, there were no risk-based underwriting guidelines for HECMs through 2014. In response to the relatively high default rate, a variety of policy responses were implemented, including establishing underwriting guidelines. However, there is a lack of data and analysis to inform such criteria. Our analysis follows 30,000 seniors counseled for reverse mortgages between 2006 and 2011. The data includes comprehensive financial and credit report attributes, not typically available in analyses of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using a bivariate probit model that accounts for selection, we estimate the likelihood of tax and insurance default. Financial characteristics that increase default risk include the percentage of funds withdrawn in the first month of the loan, a lower credit score, higher property tax to income ratio, low or no unused revolving credit, and a history of being past due on mortgage payments or having a tax lien on the property. Our estimate of the elasticity of default with respect to credit scores is similar to that for closed-end home equity loans, but higher than that for HELOCs. We simulate the effects of alternative underwriting criteria and policy changes on the probability of take-up and default. Reductions in the default rate with a minimal effect on participation can be achieved by requiring that participants with low credit scores set aside some of their HECM funds for future property tax and insurance payments, a form of escrowing.
虽然反向抵押贷款旨在为老年房主提供财务保障,但2014年,在联邦保险的房屋净值转换抵押贷款(HECM)项目中,近12%的反向抵押贷款借款人拖欠房产税或房主保险。与传统抵押贷款市场不同,直到2014年,高抵押贷款管理公司都没有基于风险的承销指导方针。为了应对相对较高的违约率,政府实施了各种政策应对措施,包括建立承保准则。然而,缺乏数据和分析来为这些标准提供依据。我们对2006年至2011年间接受反向抵押贷款咨询的3万名老年人进行了分析。这些数据包括全面的财务和信用报告属性,这些属性通常无法在反向抵押贷款借款人的分析中获得。使用考虑选择的双变量概率模型,我们估计了税收和保险违约的可能性。增加违约风险的财务特征包括在贷款的第一个月提取资金的百分比,较低的信用评分,较高的财产税与收入的比率,低或没有未使用的循环信贷,以及逾期抵押贷款支付或对财产有税收留置权的历史。我们对信用评分的违约弹性的估计与封闭式房屋净值贷款相似,但高于HELOCs。我们模拟了替代承保标准和政策变化对承担和违约概率的影响。通过要求信用评分较低的参与者留出部分HECM资金用于未来的财产税和保险支付(一种托管形式),可以在对参与率影响最小的情况下降低违约率。
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引用次数: 53
Valuing Proactive Policing: A Hedonic Analysis of Stop & Frisk's Amenity Value 重视主动警务:对拦截搜身的舒适价值的享乐主义分析
Pub Date : 2015-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2695584
Matthew Friedman
This paper measures the value households place on street-level intensive policing practices. It utilizes a large, spatially detailed data set that includes more than one hundred thousand real property sales and four million police-citizen encounters in New York City from 2006-2012. A hedonic analysis of this data shows that the New York Police Department's practice of Stop, Question & Frisk policing was likely seen as a neighborhood dis-amenity by home buyers. Using finely partitioned geographical areas to control for variation in omitted variables and precise spatial statistics describing location relative to surrounding amenities and dis-amenities, I find that properties exposed to more intense Stop & Frisk activity sold for significantly lower prices. In a novel application, this paper shows one way in which housing prices can be used to inform administrative policy related to the provision of public services.
本文衡量了家庭对街头密集警务实践的重视程度。它利用了一个大型的、空间上详细的数据集,其中包括纽约市从2006年到2012年的10万多笔房地产销售和400万次警察与市民的遭遇。对这些数据进行的一项享乐分析显示,纽约警察局的“拦截、询问和搜身”(Stop, Question & Frisk)警务措施很可能被购房者视为对社区的不友好。使用精细划分的地理区域来控制遗漏变量的变化,以及精确的空间统计数据来描述相对于周围便利设施和不便利设施的位置,我发现,受到更强烈的“拦截&搜身”活动的房产,其售价明显更低。在一种新颖的应用中,本文展示了一种利用房价为与公共服务提供相关的行政政策提供信息的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Guarantees and Capital Infusions in Response to Financial Crises A: Haircuts and Resolutions 应对金融危机的担保和资本注入A:减值和决议
Pub Date : 2015-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2723446
J. Rhee, Andrew Metrick
After the mortgage market meltdown in mid-2007 and during the financial crisis in 2008, major financial institutions around the world were on the verge of collapsing one after another. Faced with these troubles, the government had to respond quickly to contain the crisis as efficiently as possible. It was, however, limited in resources, time and experience. To make matters worse, the complexity and opaqueness of the financial market and these institutions greatly affected the governments’ ability to design an efficient and consistent method to contain the crisis. Shortly after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, American International Group (AIG) was also in deep trouble and close to failure when the Federal Reserve decided to bailout the institution. Washington Mutual (WaMu) and Wachovia were also facing collapse due to their exposure in risky mortgage products around the same time. WaMu closed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), appointed as a receiver. When the FDIC was appointed, the FDIC was able to arrange a transaction that protected all depositors in the bank and transferred all ongoing operations to JP Morgan Chase without any cost to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund. In contrast to WaMu, in the case of Wachovia the FDIC Board of Directors initially approved a sale of Wachovia through a closed bank resolution to Citigroup under the FDIC’s systemic risk authority. However, Wachovia’s Board of Directors subsequently decided to approve a sale – with no FDIC assistance – to Wells Fargo. This case provides details on the background and government response for each troubled financial institution during the financial crisis, and the rationale behind the design of each response.
在2007年中期抵押贷款市场崩溃和2008年金融危机期间,世界各地的主要金融机构纷纷濒临倒闭。面对这些麻烦,政府必须迅速作出反应,尽可能有效地控制危机。但是,它在资源、时间和经验方面都是有限的。更糟糕的是,金融市场和这些机构的复杂性和不透明性极大地影响了政府设计有效和一致的方法来遏制危机的能力。2008年9月15日,雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)申请破产后不久,美国国际集团(AIG)也深陷困境,濒临倒闭,当时美联储(Federal Reserve)决定救助该机构。华盛顿互惠银行(WaMu)和美联银行(Wachovia)也因在高风险抵押贷款产品上的风险敞口而面临倒闭。WaMu关闭,联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)被指定为接管人。当联邦存款保险公司被任命时,联邦存款保险公司能够安排一项交易,保护银行的所有存款人,并将所有正在进行的业务转移到摩根大通,而不需要联邦存款保险公司存款保险基金承担任何费用。与WaMu不同的是,在Wachovia的情况下,FDIC董事会最初根据FDIC的系统风险授权,通过一项不公开的银行决议,批准将Wachovia出售给花旗集团。然而,Wachovia董事会随后决定批准在没有FDIC援助的情况下将其出售给富国银行。本案例详细介绍了金融危机期间每个陷入困境的金融机构的背景和政府应对措施,以及每个应对措施设计背后的基本原理。
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引用次数: 0
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ERN: Microeconometric Studies of Housing Markets (Topic)
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