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Improving the Performance of Equity Portfolios 提高股票投资组合的绩效
Pub Date : 1988-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600009897
R. S. Clarkson, J. Plymen
This paper has the strictly practical objective of devising procedures for managing Equity portfolios to the best advantage. First, Modern Portfolio Theory, (MPT) which has been developed over the last 35 years with just this objective, is critically examined; from a study of the history of MPT and of its philosophy, principles and practices, the authors conclude that this discipline makes no contribution whatever to improving the performance.
本文的目标是设计股票投资组合的最佳管理程序。首先,现代投资组合理论(MPT)在过去的35年里发展起来,正是为了这个目标,它被严格地检验了;通过对MPT的历史及其哲学、原则和实践的研究,作者得出结论,这门学科对提高成绩没有任何贡献。
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引用次数: 16
Marketing of Retail Financial Services 零售金融服务市场营销
Pub Date : 1988-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/S007136860000985X
M. Iqbal
1.1 In recent years insurance companies have begun to employ marketing techniques in search of greater success in an increasingly competitive market place. Several companies have Marketing Departments. However, those who have used marketing techniques most efficiently are not necessarily those with the largest departments. 1.2 Too often marketing is confused with promotion which is but one facet of a multi-faceted discipline. Another common mistake is to regard marketing as a subset of selling. This is understandable because most senior marketing appointments in the insurance industry have gone to people with a sales background. Levitt in his classic article Marketing Myopia in Harvard Business Review said: “Selling focuses on the needs of the seller; marketing on the needs of the buyer. Selling is preoccupied with the seller's need to convert his product into cash; marketing with the idea of satisfying the needs of the customer by means of the product and the whole cluster of things associated with creating, delivering and finally consuming it. The selling concept starts with the company's existing products and calls for heavy promotion and selling to achieve profitable sales. The marketing concept is a customers' needs and wants orientation backed by integrated marketing effort aimed at generating customer satisfaction as a key to satisfying customer goals. The determination of what is to be produced should not be in the hands of the companies but in the hands of the customers. The companies produce what the consumers want and in this way maximize consumer welfare and earn their profits.”
近年来,保险公司开始采用营销技术,在竞争日益激烈的市场中寻求更大的成功。一些公司有市场部。然而,那些最有效地运用营销技巧的人不一定是那些拥有最大部门的人。市场营销常常与促销相混淆,促销只是多面学科的一个方面。另一个常见的错误是将营销视为销售的一个子集。这是可以理解的,因为保险行业的大多数高级营销职位都是由具有销售背景的人担任的。莱维特在《哈佛商业评论》上发表的经典文章《营销短视》中说:“销售关注的是卖家的需求;市场营销基于买方的需求。销售专注于卖方将产品转化为现金的需求;营销的理念是通过产品以及与产品的创造、交付和最终消费相关的一系列事情来满足客户的需求。销售理念从公司现有的产品开始,通过大力促销和销售来实现盈利销售。市场营销的概念是以顾客的需求和欲望为导向,以整合营销的努力为基础,旨在产生顾客满意,作为满足顾客目标的关键。生产什么产品的决定权不应掌握在企业手中,而应掌握在消费者手中。公司生产消费者想要的东西,通过这种方式最大化消费者福利,赚取利润。”
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引用次数: 5
Objectives and Methods of Funding Defined Benefit Pension Schemes 设定受益退休金计划的目标和资助方法
Pub Date : 1987-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/S007136860000923X
D. J. McLeish, C. M. Stewart
1.1. As every actuarial student is taught: “Pay-as-you-go is acceptable for a State pension scheme because the State is, for practical purposes, assured of a continuing existence”. However: “The position is quite different in the case of an occupational scheme, since an employer's business may cease to exist”.
1.1. 正如每一个精算专业的学生所被教导的那样:“国家养恤金计划可以接受现收现付,因为实际上国家可以确保继续存在”。然而,“在职业计划的情况下,情况就大不相同了,因为雇主的业务可能不复存在”。
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引用次数: 22
A Market Equilibrium Model for the Management of Ordinary Share Portfolios 普通股投资组合管理的市场均衡模型
Pub Date : 1983-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600008739
R. S. Clarkson
The paper describes the construction and application of a general price model based on the hypothesis that prices within an ordinary share market are in equilibrium after all participants have acted on their interpretation of the information available to them. The model can be regarded as a space time co-ordinate system in that all the attributes which affect the price of a share are described in terms of numerical scales and all the measurable changes over time in the equilibrium position correspond to changes in the position of a surface in 4-dimensional space. The application of the model to the U.K. ordinary share market is described. In particular, it is shown how the relative performance of a share can be resolved into various short-, medium- and long-term components, each of which can be studied in isolation using the model as a frame of reference. In the light of this practical experience, a detailed description of the price formation process within an ordinary share market is obtained. Since the principles underlying the practical application of the model have virtually nothing in common with the Modern Portfolio Theory methods currently in use in the United States, an attempt is made to reconcile the differing conceptual approaches. The empirical results of the market equilibrium model indicate that the theoretical foundations of Modern Portfolio Theory are somewhat insecure, and it is therefore concluded that the market equilibrium model offers the better scientific framework for the management of ordinary share portfolios.
本文描述了一个一般价格模型的构建和应用,该模型基于普通股市场中所有参与者根据他们对可获得的信息的解释采取行动后价格处于均衡状态的假设。该模型可以看作是一个时空坐标系,所有影响股票价格的属性都用数值尺度来描述,所有可测量的平衡位置随时间的变化都对应于一个平面在四维空间中的位置变化。描述了该模型在英国普通股市场的应用。特别是,它显示了股票的相对表现如何可以分解为各种短期、中期和长期组成部分,每个组成部分都可以使用模型作为参考框架单独研究。根据这一实践经验,对普通股市场的价格形成过程进行了详细的描述。由于该模型实际应用的基本原则与目前在美国使用的现代投资组合理论方法几乎没有任何共同之处,因此试图调和不同的概念方法。市场均衡模型的实证结果表明,现代投资组合理论的理论基础存在一定的不安全性,因此市场均衡模型为普通股投资组合管理提供了更科学的框架。
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引用次数: 17
Proposals for the Statutory Basis of Valuation of the Liabilities of Long-Term Insurance Business 关于长期保险业务负债估值法定依据的建议
Pub Date : 1975-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600009447
R. Bews, P. A. Seymour, A. Shaw, F. Wales
OF THE DISCUSSION Mr P. A. C. Seymour, introducing the paper, said that the Working Party had been asked to consider possible modifications of the valuation method embraced in the six principles which, when combined with assets taken at market values, would ensure a reasonable standard of adequacy in times of rapidly changing interest rates, and which could be expressed in statutory rules. Mr Seymour said he would mention three points which arose in the Faculty discussion the previous week. In Table (a) of Appendix 2 asset values were tabulated based on discounting the net interest receipts and the gross redemption value at the net valuation rate of interest. It had been suggested the previous week that in practice the market value of the stock would be lower, being determined by discounting the gross interest and redemption proceeds at the gross rate of interest. While that might be true, it was not really relevant. As stated in 5.4.8 the valuation interest rate should be based upon the net redemption yield, not upon the gross redemption yield net of tax;. As could be expected, there had been some speakers who favoured the gross premium method. As had been demonstrated in Appendix 5, a gross premium method was extremely sensitive to a difference in the interest rate between the premium basis and the valuation basis. Furthermore, there was great difficulty in deciding what should be laid down in the regulations as a reasonable allowance for future bonuses and expenses. One suggestion to deal with the negative value problem, which had been heard from several gross premium supporters, was that a lapse assumption should be built into the valuation. It had been claimed that such an assumption had the effect of reducing the mean term of the liabilities, making it more feasible to match and reducing the negative values arising. Apart from the difficulty of deciding on what lapse assumption to make, there were other dangers which might be illustrated with a topical example, the income bond. Mr Seymour felt that the correct matching procedure was to invest in negotiable securities yielding the required fixed income and redeemable on the maturity date for the required amount. The surrender values should then be based on the value of such assets at the time of surrender. It seemed quite wrong to guarantee surrender values in sterling, and then invest some of the assets shorter to cover an estimated lapse rate. If more lapses occurred than expected there was mismatching to the surrender values, and if less lapses occurred there was mismatching to the maturity values. Furthermore, selection against the office would tend to aggravate losses. The point was that it was impossible to match surrender and maturity values at the same time; lapses should therefore be ignored in the matching policy. At the Faculty meeting it had been stated that practicalities should not be forgotten. It had, for example, been suggested that condensing a valuation into a single prese
第三项原则指出,净保费应与写字楼保费作比较,差额应足以支付续期费用,包括扣除通货膨胀的费用。在5.8.1和6.4中,作者评论了精算师在考虑通货膨胀失控的可能性时所处的困境。然而,这种情况将对整个经济的金融部门产生如此广泛的影响,以至于其他更严重的影响将首先出现,例如大规模放弃。或许财政部可以就“合理”的通胀率给出一些指引。第四项原则显然是可以接受的,即应采用公认的死亡率和发病率表。第六项原则的重要性,即所保证的退让价值应由市场价值所涵盖,已由业界最近的不愉快经历非常清楚地证明。当市场价值波动时,就会产生非常现实的问题,随之而来的就是匹配问题。论文的大部分内容是针对第一和第五原则,即基本估值方法应该是净溢价方法,利率应该是基金在市场价值上的收益。在他最初的论文(J.I.A. 92,75)中列出了偿付能力估值的原则,斯克曼先生非常具体地说明了选择净溢价估值的一个原因。这是为了确保未来奖金的保费中包含的金额可用于未来利润,而不是资本化。这一想法与典型的盈利办事处的最低偿付能力标准形成鲜明对比,在典型的盈利办事处中,“最低”意味着此类办事处仅能履行其严格的合同责任。布林德利表示,他曾试图检查第一和第五项原则,看看它们是否符合要求(见下表)。公司A和公司B有相同的负债,并且是建立良好的相互公司,拥有41.2%的复合可逆奖金。这些负债在很大比例的英国公司中是典型的。A公司采用完全免疫的投资政策,B公司采用现金投资和不可赎回投资两种方式对合同利益进行免疫。6%栏目中的数字表明,拟议的规则不符合保护投保人未来奖金预期的标准。这是基于V1的。由于5.2.3和5.2.4中给出的V2和V3给出的储备金较弱,所以更不合适。
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引用次数: 10
Notes on the Financial Times–Actuaries Index in 1975 1975年英国《金融时报》精算师指数注释
Pub Date : 1973-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600009551
J. Brumwell
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引用次数: 0
Social Security and Occupational Pension Schemes 社会保障和职业养老金计划
Pub Date : 1968-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600007898
C. S. S. Lyon
Social security in the United Kingdom is at a crossroads. Should it become more selective, and if so, what form should the selectivity take ? Should the traditional methods of finance be changed ? What is to be done about the pockets of poverty which still exist ? Occupational pension schemes, too, are coming increasingly under public scrutiny. Are they fulfilling their role adequately ? In what ways do they need to be improved ? The Government is expected to announce next year its proposals for a new State pension scheme. These seem likely to include a change in the financing of National Insurance benefits generally. They may contain features which could set the State scheme and occupational schemes on a collision course. The paper examines some of the issues involved and indicates lines along which future developments might take place. It concludes by describing a way in which State and occupational schemes could continue to work in partnership.
英国的社会保障制度正处于十字路口。它是否应该变得更有选择性,如果是的话,这种选择性应该采取什么形式?传统的融资方式应该改变吗?对于仍然存在的贫困地区,我们该做些什么呢?职业养老金计划也日益受到公众的监督。他们是否充分履行了自己的职责?它们需要在哪些方面得到改进?预计政府将于明年宣布其关于新的国家养老金计划的建议。这些措施似乎可能包括改变国民保险福利的融资方式。它们可能包含可能使国家计划和职业计划发生冲突的特点。该文件审查了所涉及的一些问题,并指出了未来发展可能发生的路线。报告最后描述了国家和职业计划可以继续合作的方式。
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引用次数: 0
Investment Policy and Index Numbers 投资政策和指数
Pub Date : 1956-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600006595
H. W. Haycocks, J. Plymen
It is more than 25 years since the subject of Index Numbers and their application to Investment Policy was last discussed by the Faculty (See C. M. Douglas, T.F.A. 12 and A. C. Murray, T.F.A. 13). When these papers were written, ordinary shares were only just beginning to be recognised as suitable investments for Life Assurance Funds. Douglas and Murray anticipated that as ordinary shares became more popular with the offices, index numbers would be useful for the following purposes:— (1) Assessing the current position relative to the trade cycle; if this could be achieved, the timing of share purchases and sales would be greatly facilitated. (2) Comparing the prospects for the different industries. As a result of these original papers, the Actuaries Index Service commenced in 1930. In this paper, the authors review developments that have taken place in investment policy over the last 25 years, and study the contribution to these policy considerations that the Actuaries Index and other Index Numbers can provide. The paper is divided into five parts as follows:— Part I deals with the various economic and market factors which affect the level of share prices; usually share prices are closely correlated with the level of business activity. Sometimes, however, as in 1949 share prices fall, due to conditions overseas, without a corresponding decline in business activity. Practical uses of the Index are discussed in Part II. Particulars are given of the numerous applications of Share Indexes to problems arising in day-to-day investment management. In this part also, the authors describe certain techniques, developed to deal the first objective of Douglas and Murray (i.e. that of assessing the current position relative to the trade cycle). It is suggested that these techniques, which involve comparison of the Share Index with Activity Indexes, and with the Financial Times Industrial Profits Tables, merit investigation, and provide an interesting field for research. Finally, details are given of an investigation into the results of a portfolio of ordinary shares held over 25 years. This investigation shows that the appreciation of ordinary shares, both as regards capital and dividends, has to a large extent kept in step with the very considerably increased cost of living, sustained during this period. In Part III, reference is made to recent Institute Papers, where the principle has been developed of selecting investments according to the “expected yield” (See J. B. H. Pegler, J.I.A. 74 and H. G. Clarke, J.I.A. 80). An attempt is now made to extend these ideas and consideration is also given to the link up between the “expected yield” of an ordinary share, the “earnings yield”, and the return provided by new money invested in the company concerned. Part III concludes with an investigation, based on Actuaries Investment Index data, showing the comparative results of purchasing shares carrying low, medium or high dividend yields. For the period 1950 to 1955
该学院上一次讨论指数及其在投资政策中的应用已经超过25年了(参见T.F.A. 12的C. M. Douglas和T.F.A. 13的A. C. Murray)。在撰写这些文件时,普通股才刚刚开始被认为是人寿保险基金的合适投资。道格拉斯和默里预计,随着普通股越来越受到办公室的欢迎,指数将有助于以下目的:-(1)评估相对于交易周期的当前头寸;如果能够做到这一点,股票买卖的时机将大大便利。(2)比较不同行业的前景。由于这些原始文件,精算师索引服务于1930年开始。在本文中,作者回顾了过去25年来投资政策的发展,并研究了精算师指数和其他指数对这些政策考虑的贡献。本文共分为五个部分:第一部分论述影响股价水平的各种经济和市场因素;通常股票价格与商业活动水平密切相关。然而,有时,如1949年,由于海外情况,股票价格下跌,而商业活动却没有相应的下降。索引的实际用途将在第二部分讨论。详细介绍了股票指数在日常投资管理中出现的问题的众多应用。在这一部分中,作者还描述了某些技术,这些技术是为了处理道格拉斯和默里的第一个目标而开发的(即评估相对于贸易周期的当前位置)。有人认为,这些技术,包括股票指数与活动指数的比较,以及与金融时报工业利润表,值得调查,并提供了一个有趣的研究领域。最后,详细介绍了对持有超过25年的普通股投资组合结果的调查。这项调查表明,普通股的增值,无论是资本还是股息,在很大程度上都与这一时期生活成本的大幅增加保持同步。在第三部分,参考了最近的研究所论文,其中根据“预期收益”选择投资的原则已经发展(见j.b.h. Pegler, J.I.A. 74和h.g. Clarke, J.I.A. 80)。现在,人们试图扩展这些概念,并考虑到普通股的“预期收益”、“盈利收益”和投资于有关公司的新资金所提供的回报之间的联系。第三部分的结论是基于精算师投资指数数据的调查,显示了购买低、中、高股息收益率股票的比较结果。在1950年至1955年期间,优势似乎在于提供最低股息收益率(但可能提供卓越的盈利或增长前景)的股票组。第四部分详细讨论了指数的构建和维护。该部分涉及证券的初始选择,加权,平均和分组的方法,以及保持指数最新的程序。为此,将精算师指数所使用的方法与伦敦和剑桥经济局股票指数所采用的相应程序进行比较。第五部分讨论了作者关于投资政策的结论,他们的主要观点是:(1)对于机构投资者来说,主要关注收入,一个良好的分散和管理的普通股投资组合应该产生比固定利率投资高得多的长期回报。(2)为使股票投资组合的建立和维持达到最佳效益,应采取积极的政策,使“预期收益率”尽可能高。为此,应使用精算师工业集团指数表,以保持对较进步行业的最大兴趣,并减少对衰退行业的参与。
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引用次数: 6
The Growth of Pension Rights and their Impact on the National Economy 养老金权利的增长及其对国民经济的影响
Pub Date : 1954-12-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600006364
F. Bacon, B. Benjamin, M. Elphinstone
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引用次数: 5
Heights and Weights. 身高和体重。
Pub Date : 1925-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0071368600005917
G. J. Lidstone
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries
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