Stock pledged loans have become prevalent among large shareholders of listed firms in China. The largest shareholder pledges a greater fraction of her holdings as collateral for credit when the firm is in growth industries, less profitable, not state owned, and has higher leverage. Stock performance of highly pledged firms is indistinguishable from that of firms with low pledge ratios in 2017. During 2018, however, highly pledged firms have worse stock returns and operating performance, and experienced ‘contagion’ – the crash risk of one highly pledged stock spreading to others. Using a regulatory reform in 2013 that allowed securities companies to provide stock pledged loans, we find that obtaining these personal loans had no adverse effects on the firms when the pledge ratio was low. Overall, forced sales of pledged stocks and worsened agency conflict are responsible for the poor performance of highly pledged firms during the 2018 bear market.
{"title":"Stock Pledged Loans, Capital Markets, and Firm Performance in China","authors":"Feng Li, Jun Qian, Haofei Wang, J. Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3758847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3758847","url":null,"abstract":"Stock pledged loans have become prevalent among large shareholders of listed firms in China. The largest shareholder pledges a greater fraction of her holdings as collateral for credit when the firm is in growth industries, less profitable, not state owned, and has higher leverage. Stock performance of highly pledged firms is indistinguishable from that of firms with low pledge ratios in 2017. During 2018, however, highly pledged firms have worse stock returns and operating performance, and experienced ‘contagion’ – the crash risk of one highly pledged stock spreading to others. Using a regulatory reform in 2013 that allowed securities companies to provide stock pledged loans, we find that obtaining these personal loans had no adverse effects on the firms when the pledge ratio was low. Overall, forced sales of pledged stocks and worsened agency conflict are responsible for the poor performance of highly pledged firms during the 2018 bear market.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87225294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a sample of illiquid assets we provide evidence of the delay of updating fair values of individual assets reported in financial statements (delayed updating). Although we find that some is due to a lack of information, we find more evidence consistent with intentional delays. Further, we find delayed updating is observed more frequently when delaying bad news. We find that delayed updating is associated with positive serial correlation in portfolio returns, explaining a link found in prior research between illiquid assets and positive autocorrelation in portfolio returns. Finally, we document that delayed updating is associated with a reduction in financial reporting quality, consistent with delayed updating imposing economic costs on investors.
{"title":"Delayed Updating of Fair Values: Lack of Information or Intentional Delays?","authors":"Asher Curtis, R. A. Raney","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3760320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3760320","url":null,"abstract":"Using a sample of illiquid assets we provide evidence of the delay of updating fair values of individual assets reported in financial statements (delayed updating). Although we find that some is due to a lack of information, we find more evidence consistent with intentional delays. Further, we find delayed updating is observed more frequently when delaying bad news. We find that delayed updating is associated with positive serial correlation in portfolio returns, explaining a link found in prior research between illiquid assets and positive autocorrelation in portfolio returns. Finally, we document that delayed updating is associated with a reduction in financial reporting quality, consistent with delayed updating imposing economic costs on investors.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81393298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. N. Ogbonna, T. E. Onuoha, J. Igwe, Friday Ojeaburu
The study examined the relationship between environmental accounting and sustainability development in Nigeria from 2007 - 2016. Oil spillage cost, oil drilling waste disposal cost and degradation cost were the proxies of environmental accounting while human development index and human poverty index were sustainability development proxies. The researchers adopted correlational research design for the study. The study used secondary data obtained from Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation annual reports, CBN Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistic Bulletin and United Nation Development Programs (UNDP) Report 2016. The research Hypotheses test and other data were analyzed by Pearson Product Moment Correlation and simple linear regression tools with the aid of SPSS version 22. The outcomes of this study depicted that environmental accounting variables (OSC and ODWDC) has no significant relationship with sustainability development in Nigeria in the period of this study. However, Degradation cost revealed significant relationship with both human development index and human poverty index. Thus, the study concluded that environmental accounting has not fully influenced sustainability development in Nigeria in the period of this study. It is recommended that the National Assembly should immediately pass a Degradation Protection Law mandating all Oil multinational companies operating in the Niger-Delta region to observe and comply strictly with the highest environmental protection standards in line with global best practice to prevent degradation. We equally endorsed that Nigerian government should initiate degradation oriented policies in governance to ensure adequate human capital development of the people of the oil producing states in particular and the entire country aimed at reducing the rate of poverty, unemployment, and improve decent standard of living.
该研究调查了2007年至2016年尼日利亚环境会计与可持续发展之间的关系。溢油成本、石油钻井废弃物处理成本和降解成本是环境会计的代理指标，人类发展指数和人类贫困指数是可持续发展的代理指标。本研究采用相关研究设计。该研究使用的二手数据来自尼日利亚国家石油公司年度报告、CBN统计公报、国家统计局公报和联合国开发计划署(UNDP) 2016年报告。研究假设检验等数据采用Pearson积差相关和简单线性回归工具，借助SPSS version 22进行分析。本研究的结果表明，在本研究期间，环境会计变量(OSC和ODWDC)与尼日利亚的可持续性发展没有显著关系。退化成本与人类发展指数和人类贫困指数均呈显著相关。因此，研究得出的结论是，在本研究期间，环境会计并没有完全影响尼日利亚的可持续发展。建议国民议会立即通过一项《保护退化法》，规定在尼日尔三角洲地区经营的所有石油跨国公司遵守和严格遵守符合防止退化的全球最佳做法的最高环境保护标准。我们同样赞同尼日利亚政府应在治理中启动以退化为导向的政策，以确保石油生产国特别是整个国家的人民获得充分的人力资本发展，旨在降低贫困率，失业率，提高体面的生活水平。
{"title":"Environmental Accounting and Sustainability Development In Nigeria","authors":"G. N. Ogbonna, T. E. Onuoha, J. Igwe, Friday Ojeaburu","doi":"10.17632/KZSM6NSN4Y.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17632/KZSM6NSN4Y.2","url":null,"abstract":"The study examined the relationship between environmental accounting and sustainability development in Nigeria from 2007 - 2016. Oil spillage cost, oil drilling waste disposal cost and degradation cost were the proxies of environmental accounting while human development index and human poverty index were sustainability development proxies. The researchers adopted correlational research design for the study. The study used secondary data obtained from Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation annual reports, CBN Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistic Bulletin and United Nation Development Programs (UNDP) Report 2016. The research Hypotheses test and other data were analyzed by Pearson Product Moment Correlation and simple linear regression tools with the aid of SPSS version 22. The outcomes of this study depicted that environmental accounting variables (OSC and ODWDC) has no significant relationship with sustainability development in Nigeria in the period of this study. However, Degradation cost revealed significant relationship with both human development index and human poverty index. Thus, the study concluded that environmental accounting has not fully influenced sustainability development in Nigeria in the period of this study. It is recommended that the National Assembly should immediately pass a Degradation Protection Law mandating all Oil multinational companies operating in the Niger-Delta region to observe and comply strictly with the highest environmental protection standards in line with global best practice to prevent degradation. We equally endorsed that Nigerian government should initiate degradation oriented policies in governance to ensure adequate human capital development of the people of the oil producing states in particular and the entire country aimed at reducing the rate of poverty, unemployment, and improve decent standard of living.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88199084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oliver Mehring, Per Olsson, Soenke Sievers, Christian Sofilkanitsch
In this Online Appendix, we report additional analyses, tables and figures.
在这个在线附录中，我们报告了额外的分析、表格和数字。
{"title":"Online Appendix to: Co-movement of Price and Intrinsic Value - Does Accounting Information Matter?","authors":"Oliver Mehring, Per Olsson, Soenke Sievers, Christian Sofilkanitsch","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3748636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3748636","url":null,"abstract":"In this Online Appendix, we report additional analyses, tables and figures.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"59 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91503142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use big data on customer shopping patterns to explain variation in the persistence of a company’s revenues and earnings. Using GPS location data from customers’ mobile devices that encompasses nearly 2.5 billion visits to over 1 million retail locations belonging to 288 U.S. companies, we find that revenues and earnings are more persistent when customers are more loyal. Specifically, revenues and earnings are more persistent when customers (a) have more regular shopping patterns, (b) are repeat rather than one-time customers, (c) shop during the week rather than on weekends, and (d) spend more time in the store. However, despite the higher persistence of revenues and earnings when customer loyalty is higher, revenue and earnings response coefficients are not higher, which suggests that investors do not immediately and fully incorporate the implications of customer loyalty into prices. We also show that analysts’ forecasts do not fully account for customer loyalty, leading to predictable forecast errors, particularly when companies do not provide guidance. Our results illustrate the value of customer data to firms, investors, and analysts in understanding the conditions under which revenues and earnings are sustainable.
{"title":"Customer Loyalty and the Persistence of Revenues and Earnings","authors":"Hengda Jin, Stephen R. Stubben, Karen Ton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3744417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3744417","url":null,"abstract":"We use big data on customer shopping patterns to explain variation in the persistence of a company’s revenues and earnings. Using GPS location data from customers’ mobile devices that encompasses nearly 2.5 billion visits to over 1 million retail locations belonging to 288 U.S. companies, we find that revenues and earnings are more persistent when customers are more loyal. Specifically, revenues and earnings are more persistent when customers (a) have more regular shopping patterns, (b) are repeat rather than one-time customers, (c) shop during the week rather than on weekends, and (d) spend more time in the store. However, despite the higher persistence of revenues and earnings when customer loyalty is higher, revenue and earnings response coefficients are not higher, which suggests that investors do not immediately and fully incorporate the implications of customer loyalty into prices. We also show that analysts’ forecasts do not fully account for customer loyalty, leading to predictable forecast errors, particularly when companies do not provide guidance. Our results illustrate the value of customer data to firms, investors, and analysts in understanding the conditions under which revenues and earnings are sustainable.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"124 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88062964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the influence of institutional factors on herding behavior by exploring changes in security analysts’ institutional environments. Specifically, we identify analysts employed at privately held brokers subsequently acquired by a publicly listed institution (hereafter, “treated analysts”). We posit that, after the treatment, analysts are less independent (e.g., due to increased peer pressure or more regulated environments), and thus they issue more herding forecasts. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that treated analysts issue significantly more herding forecasts in the post-treatment period. In contrast, we do not find a change in herding behavior for analysts subject to acquisitions by non-public brokers, indicating that the institutional change from private to public, not the acquisition per se, drives our inferences. Consistent with the decreasing independency explanation, we find stronger treatment effects for less experienced analysts, more substantial organizational changes, institutional changes associated with higher job uncertainty, and in periods of stricter regulation of public institutions. Taken together, our findings suggest a causal link between the institutional environment and herding behavior.
{"title":"The Impact of the Institutional Environment on Analysts’ Herding Behavior: Evidence from Broker Acquisitions","authors":"P. Fiechter, L. Mangeney","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3741879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3741879","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the influence of institutional factors on herding behavior by exploring changes in security analysts’ institutional environments. Specifically, we identify analysts employed at privately held brokers subsequently acquired by a publicly listed institution (hereafter, “treated analysts”). We posit that, after the treatment, analysts are less independent (e.g., due to increased peer pressure or more regulated environments), and thus they issue more herding forecasts. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that treated analysts issue significantly more herding forecasts in the post-treatment period. In contrast, we do not find a change in herding behavior for analysts subject to acquisitions by non-public brokers, indicating that the institutional change from private to public, not the acquisition per se, drives our inferences. Consistent with the decreasing independency explanation, we find stronger treatment effects for less experienced analysts, more substantial organizational changes, institutional changes associated with higher job uncertainty, and in periods of stricter regulation of public institutions. Taken together, our findings suggest a causal link between the institutional environment and herding behavior.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80430440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using acquirer’s risk-factor disclosure in merger filings, we study the risks faced by acquirers in mergers and acquisitions and how these risks are associated with important merger outcomes. We first establish the validity of acquirer’s risk factor disclosure, and then employ an unsupervised topic modeling approach to divide acquirer’s disclosures into specific risk topics. We find that acquirers emphasize four risks including technology and product, valuation and fairness, accounting information, and ownership and dilution. Our further analyses show that these disclosed risks have significant and diverging relations with acquirer’s post-merger outcomes such as post-merger integration problem and volatility and level of post-merger of operating and stock performance.
{"title":"Risks in Mergers and Acquisitions","authors":"Feng Guo, Tingting Liu, Tao Shu, Xinyan Yan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3746734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3746734","url":null,"abstract":"Using acquirer’s risk-factor disclosure in merger filings, we study the risks faced by acquirers in mergers and acquisitions and how these risks are associated with important merger outcomes. We first establish the validity of acquirer’s risk factor disclosure, and then employ an unsupervised topic modeling approach to divide acquirer’s disclosures into specific risk topics. We find that acquirers emphasize four risks including technology and product, valuation and fairness, accounting information, and ownership and dilution. Our further analyses show that these disclosed risks have significant and diverging relations with acquirer’s post-merger outcomes such as post-merger integration problem and volatility and level of post-merger of operating and stock performance.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90172210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the role of differences in firms’ propensity to meet earnings expectations in explaining why firms with high analyst forecast dispersion experience relatively low future stock returns. We first demonstrate that the negative relation between dispersion and returns is concentrated around earnings announcements. Next, we show that this relation disappears when we control for ex ante measures of firms’ propensity to meet earnings expectations and that the component of dispersion explained by these measures drives the return predictability of dispersion. We further demonstrate that firms with low analyst dispersion are substantially more likely to achieve positive earnings surprises and provide new evidence consistent with both expectations management and strategic forecast pessimism explaining this result. Overall, we conclude that investor mispricing of firms’ participation in the earnings-expectations game provides a viable explanation for the dispersion anomaly. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.
{"title":"The Earnings Expectations Game and the Dispersion Anomaly","authors":"David Veenman, P. Verwijmeren","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3754858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3754858","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the role of differences in firms’ propensity to meet earnings expectations in explaining why firms with high analyst forecast dispersion experience relatively low future stock returns. We first demonstrate that the negative relation between dispersion and returns is concentrated around earnings announcements. Next, we show that this relation disappears when we control for ex ante measures of firms’ propensity to meet earnings expectations and that the component of dispersion explained by these measures drives the return predictability of dispersion. We further demonstrate that firms with low analyst dispersion are substantially more likely to achieve positive earnings surprises and provide new evidence consistent with both expectations management and strategic forecast pessimism explaining this result. Overall, we conclude that investor mispricing of firms’ participation in the earnings-expectations game provides a viable explanation for the dispersion anomaly. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72692475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the efficacy of machine learning in one of the most important tasks in fundamental analysis, forecasting corporate earnings. We find that machine learning models, especially those accommodating nonlinearities, generate significantly more accurate and informative forecasts than a host of state-of-the-art earnings prediction models in the extant literature. Further analysis suggests that machine learning models uncover economically sensible relationships between historical financial information and future earnings, and the new information uncovered by machine learning models is of considerable economic significance. The new information component is significantly associated with both future stock returns and analyst forecast errors, with stocks in the quintiles with the most favorable new information outperforming those in the least favorable quintiles by approximately 70 bps per month. The overall results suggest that limiting to linear relationships and aggregated accounting numbers substantially understates the decision usefulness of financial statement information to investors.
{"title":"Fundamental Analysis Via Machine Learning","authors":"Kai Cao, Haifeng You","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3706532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3706532","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the efficacy of machine learning in one of the most important tasks in fundamental analysis, forecasting corporate earnings. We find that machine learning models, especially those accommodating nonlinearities, generate significantly more accurate and informative forecasts than a host of state-of-the-art earnings prediction models in the extant literature. Further analysis suggests that machine learning models uncover economically sensible relationships between historical financial information and future earnings, and the new information uncovered by machine learning models is of considerable economic significance. The new information component is significantly associated with both future stock returns and analyst forecast errors, with stocks in the quintiles with the most favorable new information outperforming those in the least favorable quintiles by approximately 70 bps per month. The overall results suggest that limiting to linear relationships and aggregated accounting numbers substantially understates the decision usefulness of financial statement information to investors.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88399175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Prior studies associate dividends with permanent earnings signals and stock repurchases with transitory earnings signals. In contrast, we provide empirical evidence that in recent decades, dividends and stock repurchases have converged to each other in terms of their signaling for future earnings. According to our explorative empirical analysis using a modified version of the Dechow et al. (2008) earnings persistence model, the relation between dividend and stock repurchase signals has changed from complementary to substitutive. However, cumulative abnormal returns following payout announcements indicate that the stock market is not fully aware of this convergence as cumulative abnormal returns in response to stock repurchases do not increase in conjunction with their changing signals. We also explore potential reasons for the documented convergence, and find that the declining signaling of dividends for future earnings may be driven by increased institutional ownership, reducing agency-problems between management and shareholders. Furthermore, the signaling of stock repurchases converges to that of dividends because the former are paid more persistently and are less related to transitory non-operating income. Our findings help investors and managers in allocating their assets more efficiently by improving their understanding of payout policy implications.
先前的研究将股息与永久性收益信号联系起来，将股票回购与暂时性收益信号联系起来。相比之下，我们提供的经验证据表明，近几十年来，股息和股票回购在对未来收益的信号方面已经相互趋同。我们利用Dechow et al.(2008)盈余持续性模型的修正版本进行探索性实证分析发现，股利与股票回购信号之间的关系已经从互补变为替代。然而，股利公告后的累积异常收益表明，股票市场并没有完全意识到这种趋同，因为股票回购的累积异常收益并没有随着信号的变化而增加。我们还探讨了文献趋同的潜在原因，并发现未来收益股息信号的下降可能是由机构所有权的增加所驱动的，从而减少了管理层和股东之间的代理问题。此外，股票回购的信号收敛于股息的信号，因为前者支付更持久，与暂时性营业外收入的关系更小。我们的研究结果通过提高投资者和管理者对支付政策影响的理解，帮助他们更有效地配置资产。
{"title":"Complementarity or Substitution: Time-Variant Implications of Dividends and Stock Repurchases – An Explorative Study","authors":"C. Homburg, Roman Schick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3739725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3739725","url":null,"abstract":"Prior studies associate dividends with permanent earnings signals and stock repurchases with transitory earnings signals. In contrast, we provide empirical evidence that in recent decades, dividends and stock repurchases have converged to each other in terms of their signaling for future earnings. According to our explorative empirical analysis using a modified version of the Dechow et al. (2008) earnings persistence model, the relation between dividend and stock repurchase signals has changed from complementary to substitutive. However, cumulative abnormal returns following payout announcements indicate that the stock market is not fully aware of this convergence as cumulative abnormal returns in response to stock repurchases do not increase in conjunction with their changing signals. We also explore potential reasons for the documented convergence, and find that the declining signaling of dividends for future earnings may be driven by increased institutional ownership, reducing agency-problems between management and shareholders. Furthermore, the signaling of stock repurchases converges to that of dividends because the former are paid more persistently and are less related to transitory non-operating income. Our findings help investors and managers in allocating their assets more efficiently by improving their understanding of payout policy implications.","PeriodicalId":12319,"journal":{"name":"Financial Accounting eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83954611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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