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Risk Measurement, Risk Management, and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates 金融集团的风险度量、风险管理与资本充足率
Pub Date : 2003-08-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2003.0005
Andrew Kuritzkes, Til Schuermann, Scott M. Weiner
Is there something special, with respect to risk and capital, about a financial conglomerate that combines banking, insurance and potentially other financial and non-financial activities? To what degree is the risk of the whole less than the sum of its parts? This paper seeks to address these questions by evaluating the risk profile of a typical banking-insurance conglomerate, highlighting the key analytical issues relating to risk aggregation, and raising policy considerations. Risk aggregation is the main analytical hurdle to arriving at a composite risk picture. We propose a "building block" approach that aggregates risk at three successive levels in an organization, (corresponding to the levels at which risk is typically managed). Empirically, diversification effects are greatest within a single risk factor (Level I), decrease at the business line level (Level II), and are smallest across business lines (Level III). Our estimates suggest that the incremental diversification benefits achievable at Level III are modest, around 5-10% reduction in capital requirements, depending on business mix.
在风险和资本方面,一家综合了银行、保险以及其他潜在金融和非金融活动的金融集团有什么特别之处吗?整体的风险在多大程度上小于各部分的总和?本文试图通过评估一个典型的银行-保险集团的风险概况来解决这些问题,强调与风险聚集有关的关键分析问题,并提出政策考虑。风险汇总是得出综合风险图的主要分析障碍。我们提出了一种“构建块”方法,该方法在组织中连续的三个级别上聚集风险(对应于通常管理风险的级别)。从经验上看,多元化效应在单一风险因素(第一级)中最大,在业务线水平(第二级)上降低,在业务线水平上最小(第三级)。我们的估计表明,在第三级可实现的增量多元化效益是适度的,根据业务组合,资本要求减少约5-10%。
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引用次数: 113
Consolidation and Strategic Positioning in Banking with Implications for Europe 银行业的整合和战略定位及其对欧洲的启示
Pub Date : 2003-08-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2003.0001
Arnoud Boot
occurring around the globe are probably best characterized as a financial services sector in flux. Transactions are particularly numerous and breathtaking in the United States and Western Europe, but restructuring is also occurring in Asia. Most striking is the escalating scale of mergers in banking. In just the last few years, in the United States mergers have led to a consolidation of money center banks (for example, the Chase Manhattan and Chemical Bank merger, prior to their subsequent merger with J. P. Morgan) and the emergence of regional powerhouses (for example, the expansion strategies of BankOne and Nationsbank and their mergers with, respectively, First Chicago/NBD and BankAmerica). In Europe mergers have also been prominent. Although cross-border mergers are relatively infrequent—with exceptions in Scandinavia and the acquisitions across the Dutch-Belgian border, such as the acquisition of the Belgian Bank BBL by the Dutch financial conglomerate ING— domestic mergers typically involve large universal banks and are often spectacular. Noteworthy examples include the marriage of the Union
在全球范围内发生的最典型的特征可能是不断变化的金融服务部门。美国和西欧的交易尤其多,令人惊叹,但亚洲也在进行重组。最引人注目的是银行业并购规模的不断升级。就在过去的几年里,在美国,合并导致了货币中心银行的整合(例如,大通曼哈顿银行和化学银行的合并,随后与摩根大通合并)和区域巨头的出现(例如,BankOne和Nationsbank的扩张战略以及它们分别与第一芝加哥/NBD和美国银行的合并)。在欧洲,合并也很突出。尽管跨境并购相对较少——除了斯堪的纳维亚半岛和荷兰-比利时边境的并购,比如荷兰金融集团ING收购比利时银行BBL——国内并购通常涉及大型全能型银行,而且往往很引人注目。值得注意的例子包括联邦的婚姻
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引用次数: 39
Efficient Confidentiality for Privacy, Security, and Confidential Business Information 对隐私、安全和机密商业信息的有效保密
Pub Date : 2003-05-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.383180
Peter P. Swire
This Article addresses my observation, based on my experience in government service, that those trained in economics are much less likely to consider privacy protection important than those trained in other disciplines. The core economist intuition comes from the basic model of a competitive market, where a market is considered more efficient the closer it comes to perfect information. Full information allows the efficient matching of buyers and sellers. Limits on information, such as privacy rules, raise the costs of exchange and may even promote fraud by concealing negative information. This Article addresses that economists' intuition in a number of ways. As the Article was prepared for a symposium on the future of financial services, Part I highlights the substantial history of confidentiality in banking. Many economists believe that persistent features of markets are likely adaptive and efficient. The history of confidentiality thus raises a rebuttable presumption that confidentiality has important efficiency characteristics. Part II places the privacy debate into settings where economists are likely to have positive intuitions that confidentiality is efficient. First, consider in the security context whether it is efficient to disclose the combination to a bank safe or other security information. Second, consider whether it is efficient for a bank to disclose confidential business information about a corporate borrower to that company's competitors. Third, consider, given the risk of identity theft, whether it is efficient for a bank to reveal a customer's online password or other information that acts as a key to the customer's account. The likely efficiency of keeping this key security information confidential thus can strengthen the intuition that confidentiality may also be efficient when it comes to sensitive personal information, or the "keys to the heart." The Article next suggests reasons why economists have tended to undervalue the harms from unwanted disclosures of information. Economists, who themselves may on average care little about privacy, may have mis-gauged the tastes of other people. The Article explains significant externalities that may lead to inefficiently high use of telemarketing and other business activities that rely on information sharing. The technique of cost/benefit analysis likely tends to emphasize the costs of privacy protections, which are more easily monetizable, instead of the benefits. Certain sorts of harms, including long-run societal harms from lack of privacy, have also likely not received full weight. Fourth, a Ponemon Institute study provides new evidence about revealed behavior, and not simply about poll responses, when it comes to financial services and privacy. The most significant finding is that customers that trusted their financial institution on privacy were substantially more likely to engage in online banking. Additional research would be helpful, but this data supports the possibility t
这篇文章阐述了我的观察,基于我在政府服务的经验,那些受过经济学训练的人比那些受过其他学科训练的人更不可能认为隐私保护是重要的。经济学家的核心直觉来自竞争市场的基本模型,在这个模型中,人们认为市场越接近完美信息,效率就越高。充分的信息使买卖双方有效匹配。对信息的限制,如隐私规则,提高了交换的成本,甚至可能通过隐瞒负面信息来促进欺诈。本文从多个方面阐述了经济学家的直觉。由于这篇文章是为一个关于金融服务未来的研讨会而编写的,第一部分强调了银行业保密的实质性历史。许多经济学家认为,市场的持久特征可能具有适应性和有效性。因此,保密的历史提出了一个可反驳的假设,即保密具有重要的效率特征。第二部分将隐私辩论置于经济学家可能有积极直觉的环境中,即保密是有效的。首先,考虑在安全性上下文中向银行保险箱或其他安全性信息披露组合是否有效。其次,考虑银行将公司借款人的机密商业信息披露给该公司的竞争对手是否有效。第三,考虑到身份被盗的风险,银行披露客户的在线密码或充当客户账户密钥的其他信息是否有效。因此,将这些关键安全信息保密的可能效率可以增强这样一种直觉,即机密性在涉及敏感的个人信息或“通往心灵的钥匙”时也可能是有效的。接下来,这篇文章提出了经济学家倾向于低估不受欢迎的信息披露的危害的原因。一般来说,经济学家自己可能不太关心隐私,他们可能错误地判断了其他人的品味。这篇文章解释了可能导致电话营销和其他依赖信息共享的商业活动效率低下的显著外部性。成本/收益分析技术可能倾向于强调隐私保护的成本,这更容易货币化,而不是收益。某些类型的危害,包括缺乏隐私造成的长期社会危害,可能也没有得到充分重视。第四,波耐蒙研究所(Ponemon Institute)的一项研究提供了新的证据,证明了当涉及金融服务和隐私时,人们的行为是公开的,而不仅仅是民意调查的结果。最重要的发现是,在隐私方面信任金融机构的客户更有可能使用网上银行。进一步的研究可能会有所帮助,但这些数据支持了个人将更多地参与某些提供保密的金融服务的可能性。文章还将经济效率分析置于更广泛的关于隐私保护可取性的辩论中。许多非经济学者和法律体系都强调,在未经个人同意的情况下,披露有关个人的重要数据是对权利的侵犯。经济分析对侵犯权利没有给予独立的权重。因此,与受过其他学科训练的人相比,经济学家对许多支持隐私保护的最有力的论据给予的系统性重视要少得多。
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引用次数: 25
What Constitutes Appropriate Disclosure for a Financial Conglomerate? 金融集团的适当披露是什么?
Pub Date : 2002-11-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2003.0009
L. White
This paper addresses the disclosure issues for financial conglomerates principally from the same perspective as that of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: that disclosure is important for the safety and soundness of banks. However, we reach substantially different conclusions with respect to three important disclosure issues: the role of market value accounting; the frequency of disclosures; and the role of subordinated debt.We start by asking why any special disclosure might be required for financial conglomerates. This question immediately leads to a discussion of what is special about financial conglomerates. We also address the question of, "Disclosure to whom?" There are at least two potential audiences for information disclosures: financial regulators; and the publicinvestors/creditors/customers of a financial conglomerate. Issues of the appropriate structure for a financial conglomerate, and the information revelation that should accompany that structure, are also raised. Finally, we return to the title topic: What constitutes appropriate disclosure for afinancial conglomerate. Unfortunately, by turning its back on the three most important steps that could be taken to improve information disclosure -- mandating market value accounting (MVA) for banks' reports to regulators, aiming toward daily submission of these reports, and requiring the issuance of subordinated debt -- the Basel Committee has fundamentally undermined its efforts to enhancebanks' safety and soundness.
本文主要从与巴塞尔银行监管委员会相同的角度来解决金融集团的披露问题:披露对银行的安全和稳健至关重要。然而,我们在三个重要的披露问题上得出了截然不同的结论:市值会计的作用;披露的频率;以及次级债务的作用。我们首先要问的是,为什么金融集团需要进行特别披露。这个问题立即引发了一场关于金融集团有何特殊之处的讨论。我们还讨论了“向谁披露?”信息披露至少有两类潜在受众:金融监管机构;以及金融集团的公众投资者/债权人/客户。此外,还提出了金融集团的适当结构问题,以及该结构应附带的信息披露问题。最后,我们回到标题主题:什么构成了金融集团的适当披露。不幸的是,巴塞尔委员会放弃了可以用来改善信息披露的三个最重要的步骤——强制要求银行向监管机构提交市场价值会计(MVA)报告,目标是每天提交这些报告,并要求发行次级债券——从根本上破坏了其增强银行安全性和稳健性的努力。
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引用次数: 3
Strategies in Financial Services, the Shareholders, and the System: Is Bigger and Broader Better? 金融服务、股东和系统的战略:越大越好吗?
Pub Date : 2002-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.333800
I. Walter
The financial services industry is ?special? in a variety of ways, including the fiduciary nature of the business, its role at the center of the payments and capital allocation process with all its static and dynamic implications for economic performance, and the systemic nature of problems that can arise in the industry. So the structure, conduct and performance of the industry has unusually important public interest dimensions. One facet of the discussion has focused on size of financial firms, however measured, and the range of activities conducted by them Is size positively related to total returns to shareholders? If so, does this involve gains in efficiency or transfers of wealth to shareholders from other constituencies, or maybe both? Does greater breadth generate sufficient information-cost and transaction-cost economies to be beneficial to shareholders and customers, or can it work against their interests in ways that may ultimately impede shareholder value as well? And is bigger and broader also safer? This paper starts with a simple strategic framework for thinking about these issues from the perspective of the management of financial firms. What should they be trying to do, and how does this relate to the issues of size and breadth? It then reviews the available evidence and reaches a set of tentative conclusions from what we know so far, both from a shareholder perspective and that of the financial system as a whole.
金融服务业很特殊。以各种方式,包括业务的信托性质,其在支付和资本分配过程中的中心作用及其对经济表现的所有静态和动态影响,以及行业中可能出现的问题的系统性性质。因此,行业的结构、行为和绩效具有异常重要的公共利益维度。讨论的一个方面集中在金融公司的规模上,无论如何衡量,以及它们开展的活动范围,规模是否与股东的总回报呈正相关?如果是这样,这是否涉及效率的提高或财富从其他选区向股东的转移,或者两者兼而有之?更大的广度是否会产生足够的信息成本和交易成本经济,从而对股东和客户有利,还是会以不利于股东和客户利益的方式,最终阻碍股东价值的实现?更大更广也更安全吗?本文从一个简单的战略框架开始,从金融公司管理的角度来思考这些问题。他们应该尝试做什么,这与规模和广度的问题有什么关系?然后,从股东和整个金融体系的角度,对现有证据进行审查,并根据我们目前所知得出一系列初步结论。
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引用次数: 25
The Future of the New Issues Market 新股发行市场的未来
Pub Date : 2002-01-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2002.0019
J. Ritter
Every MBA program that I have taught in has some Asian students, and in some Asian societies, such as Korea, it is common for a student to give a gift to a teacher at the end of the year. Some Korean students continue this practice when they are students in the U.S., and over the years I have received a number of gifts from students. Most of these gifts fall into the category of trinkets and knick-knacks, and I would guess that the average value of these gifts has been about twenty dollars. I typically accept these gifts when offered, and sometimes I even remember the student’s name. I don’t think that many people would consider my acceptance of these gifts after the end of a semester as unethical behavior. I haven’t been faced with the decision, but what would I do if I was offered a gift of a work of art, a gift worth $200? And what if I could sell this gift (I would wait until after the student graduated and left town, of course), and pocket the $200? Would accepting this gift be unethical? Would it change my behavior? What if the work of art was worth $10,000, but the Korean student let me know in advance of the final exam that he or she only gave gifts to professors in classes where an ‘A’ was received? Would this affect my decisions on what grade to give this student, especially if it turned out the student was right on the borderline between an A and a B when I was making up the grade distribution? What if the student didn’t tell me this in advance, but I had learned from experience that I would receive much more valuable gifts from Korean students if they received high grades? Would it be OK for me to accept significant gifts from students who received high grades if other professors were doing so? In other words, if it was “standard industry practice?” Because this article is about the new issues market, I will not discuss further the ethical problems associated with professors who give high grades to students and receive gifts in return. This article will focus mainly on the initial public offerings (IPOs) of equity securities. I will focus on equity IPOs mainly because this is where almost all of the controversy lies. In particular, there are controversies associated with underwriters who allocate hot IPOs to hedge funds and receive commission business in return. After presenting some statistics concerning IPOs and discussing controversies, the article ends with some policy recommendations.
我教过的每个MBA课程都有一些亚洲学生,在一些亚洲社会,比如韩国,学生在年底给老师送礼物是很常见的。一些韩国学生在美国读书时还会继续这种做法,这些年来,我收到了许多学生的礼物。这些礼物大多属于小饰品和小摆设的范畴,我猜这些礼物的平均价值约为20美元。我通常会接受这些礼物,有时我甚至会记住学生的名字。我不认为很多人会认为我在学期结束后接受这些礼物是不道德的行为。我还没有做过这个决定,但如果有人给我一件价值200美元的艺术品作为礼物,我会怎么做?如果我能卖掉这份礼物(当然,我会等到那个学生毕业离开小镇之后),把200美元装进自己的口袋呢?接受这份礼物是不道德的吗?它会改变我的行为吗?如果一件艺术品价值1万美元,但韩国学生在期末考试前告诉我,他(她)只给得了“A”的课的教授送礼物,那该怎么办?这会影响我给这个学生打多少分吗,尤其是当我在计算成绩分布时,这个学生正好在A和B之间的边缘时?如果学生没有提前告诉我,但我从经验中了解到,如果韩国学生成绩好,我将收到更多有价值的礼物,那该怎么办?如果其他教授都这么做,我是否可以接受高分学生送的贵重礼物?换句话说,如果这是“标准的行业惯例?”因为这篇文章是关于新问题市场的,所以我不会进一步讨论教授给学生高分并接受礼物的道德问题。本文将主要关注股权证券的首次公开发行(ipo)。我将主要关注股票ipo,因为这几乎是所有争议所在。特别是,承销商将热门ipo分配给对冲基金,并获得佣金业务,这引发了争议。在介绍了一些有关ipo的统计数据并讨论了争议之后,文章最后提出了一些政策建议。
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引用次数: 10
The Future of the Foreign Exchange Market 外汇市场的未来
Pub Date : 2002-01-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2002.0014
R. Lyons
This paper addresses the future of the foreign exchange market using two organizing (and provocative) ideas. One pertains to the market’s institutional structure, the other to its information structure. The first organizing idea is that the structure of currency markets is driven primarily by the management of credit risk. This contrasts with drivers identified by micr ostructure theory (such as management of market risk, attenuation of asymmetric information, and entry barriers). The second organizing idea is that price variation in spot currency markets is driven primarily by dispersed information. This too contrasts with the orthodox view, under which exchange rates are determined from public information. Though provocative, these two ideas are vital to understanding this market’s future. Based on drivers of the market’s current structure, I propose three scenarios for future evolution. The scenario I consider most likely is one in which the current dealer structure is maintained through dealing banks’ crosssubsidizing their liquidity provision using gains from superior order flow information.
本文用两个有组织的(且具有挑衅性的)观点来阐述外汇市场的未来。一个与市场的制度结构有关,另一个与市场的信息结构有关。第一个组织思想是,货币市场的结构主要是由信用风险管理驱动的。这与微观结构理论(如市场风险管理、信息不对称的衰减和进入壁垒)所确定的驱动因素形成对比。第二个组织思想是,现货货币市场的价格变化主要是由分散的信息驱动的。这也与传统观点形成了对比,传统观点认为汇率是由公开信息决定的。这两个观点虽然具有挑衅性,但对于理解这个市场的未来至关重要。基于市场当前结构的驱动因素,我提出了未来演变的三种情景。我认为最有可能的情况是,当前的交易商结构是通过交易银行利用从优质订单流信息中获得的收益,对其流动性提供进行交叉补贴来维持的。
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引用次数: 16
The Future of Securities Exchanges 证券交易的未来
Pub Date : 2002-01-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2002.0012
Ruben Lee
This paper examines the future of securities exchanges. It seeks both to extrapolate logical conclusions from current trends and to provide a virtual bully pulpit to ensure that all is for the best in the best of all possible futures. Four broad themes relating to securities exchanges are discussed: information, industry structure, governance, and politics. In each area, some predictions are made, and then comments are provided on why the predictions will come to pass and on some of their commercial and regulatory implications.
本文探讨了证券交易的未来。它既寻求从当前趋势中推断出合乎逻辑的结论,又提供一个虚拟的天坛,以确保在所有可能的未来中,一切都是最好的。本文讨论了与证券交易所相关的四大主题:信息、行业结构、治理和政治。在每一个领域,都做出了一些预测,然后就这些预测为什么会实现以及它们的一些商业和监管含义提供了评论。
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引用次数: 67
The Immediacy Implications of Exchange Organization 交换组织的直接影响
Pub Date : 2002-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.327063
J. Moser
The paper introduces a connection between the needs of exchanges to respond to the immediacy needs of their clientele and the need to manage the credit risks faced by exchange members. Queueing theory is used to represent the opportunity loss suffered by brokers engaging in multiple activities: order-flow origination and its intermediation. The role of market-making locals is depicted as enabling specialization. Brokers focus on originating order flow and locals on fulfilling intermediation needs. The capacity to specialize is constrained by the availability of creditworthy members acting as locals. This results in a tension between pursuit of immediacy and managing inter-member credit exposure. Two exchange rules, tick size and price limits, are evaluated for their effects in resolving this tension.
本文介绍了交易所应对客户即时需求的需求与管理交易所成员面临的信用风险的需求之间的联系。排队理论用于表示参与多个活动的代理所遭受的机会损失:订单流发起及其中介。当地人做市商的作用被描述为实现专业化。经纪人专注于发起订单流,而本地人则专注于满足中介需求。专业化的能力受到信誉良好的成员充当当地人的限制。这导致了追求即时性与管理成员间信贷风险之间的紧张关系。本文评估了两项交易所规则——交易额度和价格限制——在解决这种紧张关系方面的效果。
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引用次数: 3
Comment and Discussion 评论与讨论
Pub Date : 2002-01-01 DOI: 10.1353/PFS.2002.0010
F. Edwards
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services
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