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Intense Geomagnetic Storms in The Maximum Phase of Solar Cycle 24 Observed From a Low-Latitude Ground Station 低纬度地面站观测到的第24太阳周期最大阶段的强烈地磁风暴
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.4.2028
J. A. Lazzús, I. Salfate, P. Vega-Jorquera
Debido a las complejidades de la investigación magnetosférica, la instalación y gestión de nuevas estaciones terrestres magnéticas de acuerdo con los estándares modernos es crucial para monitorear las perturbaciones magnetosféricas y los fenómenos relacionados. En respuesta al desarrollo de nuevas herramientas in situ y conjuntos de datos tomados en tierra que respalden estos estudios, se evaluaron los datos generados por la estación terrestre magnética de baja latitud de La Serena (en las coordenadas geográficas: ‒29.827, ‒71.261; y coordenadas magnéticas: ‒16.55, 0.17) para describir tormentas geomagnéticas intensas. Esta estación en la ciudad de La Serena (Chile), es dependiente del Laboratorio de Física Espacial y Atmosférica de la Universidad de La Serena (LAFESAT). Con estos datos, estudiamos las cinco tormentas geomagnéticas más intensas (Dst <‒100 nT) ocurridas durante la fase máxima del ciclo solar 24 (desde 2014 hasta principios de 2016). Los resultados muestran que las variaciones de la componente H de las mediciones de la estación La Serena son consistentes con las variaciones del índice Dst reportadas para cada tormenta analizada, obteniendo valores de coeficiente de correlación de hasta 0.97 para tormentas con Dst <‒200 nT. Además, nuestros resultados son consistentes con la fuerte influencia que tienen de los sistemas de corriente magnetosférica/ionosférica sobre el componente H durante una intensa tormenta geomagnética.
由于磁层研究的复杂性,按照现代标准安装和管理新的磁地面站对于监测磁层扰动和相关现象至关重要。为了开发新的现场工具和支持这些研究的地面数据集,对拉塞雷纳低纬度磁地面站(地理坐标:- 29,827、- 71,261;磁坐标:- 16.55,0.17),用来描述强烈的地磁风暴。该空间站位于智利拉塞雷纳市,隶属于拉塞雷纳大学空间和大气物理实验室(LAFESAT)。利用这些数据,我们研究了发生在太阳周期第24个最大阶段(2014年至2016年初)的5个最强烈的地磁风暴(Dst < - 100 nT)。结果表明变化的测量H部分车站塞雷纳是符合Dst指数变化为每个风暴举报分析,获得相关性系数值高达0.97暴风雨Dst <—200 nT。此外,我们的结果是一致的强烈影响电流系统层电离层/ H时紧张的地磁风暴的组成部分。
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引用次数: 1
Seal Cap Resistivity Structure of Los Humeros Geothermal Field from Direct Current and Transient Electromagnetic Soundings 直流和瞬态电磁探测的Los Humeros地热场封盖电阻率结构
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.4.2228
C. Flores, Thalia Avilés Esquivel, C. Arango
Los métodos geofísicos dan información importante en la exploración de recursos geotérmicos. En este trabajo buscamos pistas de la presencia de un yacimiento geotérmico conocido (Los Humeros, México) en la estructura somera de la resistividad eléctrica. Interpretamos cerca de 410 sondeos eléctricos verticales (SEV) y 230 sondeos electromagnéticos transitorios (TEM) que dan información de la resistividad eléctrica hasta profundidades de 1 km, alcanzándose en algunos sitios hasta 2 km.La estructura vertical de la resistividad generalmente consiste de una secuencia resistivo-conductor-resistivo. El rasgo más importante es la unidad conductora, conocida como el casquete de arcillas, asociado con arcillas de alteración hidrotermal arriba del yacimiento geotérmico. Esta unidad sufre de un problema de equivalencia, donde no se pueden determinar por separado su resistividad de su espesor. Sin embargo, las temperaturas de los pozos y las arcillas de alteración asociadas ayudan a constreñir este problema. En varias zonas de la unidad resistiva somera encontramos resistividades bajas que podrían representar zonas de recarga donde roca fracturada permite la infiltración de agua meteórica. El casquete de arcillas no solo se presenta sobre el yacimiento, sino que tiene una presencia regional. Sin embargo, sobre el reservorio esta unidad tiene una mayor conductancia y su cima está más somera. Los pocos lugares donde los sondeos eléctricos alcanzaron profundidades del yacimiento con resistividades bien resueltas dan una resistividad media de 118 ohm▪m, sin poder diferenciar estadísticamente las zonas productoras de las no productoras. Esta resistividad está dentro del rango de valores encontrados en otras zonas geotérmicas del mundo.
地球物理方法为地热资源勘探提供了重要信息。在这项工作中,我们正在寻找电阻率浅层结构中存在已知地热矿床(墨西哥洛斯休梅罗斯)的线索。我们解释了近410个垂直电测深(SEV)和230个瞬变电磁测深(TEM),它们提供深度为1公里的电阻率信息,在某些地方达到2公里。电阻率的垂直结构通常由电阻-导体-电阻序列组成。最重要的特征是被称为粘土盖层的导电单元,与地热矿床顶部的热液蚀变粘土有关。该单元存在等效问题,无法单独确定其电阻率和厚度。然而,井温和相关的蚀变粘土有助于限制这一问题。在浅层电阻单元的几个区域,我们发现低电阻可能代表断裂岩石允许大气水渗透的补给区。粘土盖不仅存在于矿床上方,而且具有区域性。然而,在水库上方,该单元的电导率更高,顶部更浅。为数不多的电测深达到储层深度且电阻率得到很好解决的地方的平均电阻率为118欧姆▪m、 无法在统计上区分生产区和非生产区。这种电阻率在世界其他地热区发现的值范围内。
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引用次数: 0
Content of Total Organic Carbon Using Random Forest, Borehole Imaging, and Fractal Analysis: A Methodology Applied in the Cretaceous La Luna Formation, South America 随机森林、钻孔成像和分形分析方法在南美白垩系La Luna组的应用
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.4.2113
Jorge A. Leal F., Luis H. Ochoa G., Gustavo A. Sarmiento P.
Esta investigación presenta un enfoque alternativo para calcular el contenido de carbono orgánico total utilizando registros de cable y técnicas de aprendizaje automático; específicamente, imágenes resistivas de pozo, su resistividad promedio y registro de rayos gamma son empleados para entrenar un modelo regresivo. La metodología se aplicó en la Formación La Luna, la cual ha sido reportada como una de las principales rocas generadoras de Colombia y el oeste de Venezuela. El objetivo de este trabajo es enseñar a una máquina como reconocer patrones entre rasgos fractales en imágenes de pozo y su contenido de carbono orgánico total. El aprendizaje automático implementado se basa en técnicas de aprendizaje por conjuntos, en este caso, un conjunto de árboles de decisión conocido como bosques aleatorios. Los datos empleados tienen un total de 960 mediciones de registros, los cuales fueron divididos aleatoriamente en 80% para entrenamiento y 20% para validación. El resultado es equivalente a la curva obtenida con una regresión semilogarítmica del carbono orgánico medido en el núcleo contra valores de registro de densidad. La precisión de este método es suficientemente alta para ser considerada durante evaluaciones petrofísicas, mostrando un error medio cuadrático de 0.44% y un coeficiente de correlación de Pearson de 0.88. La metodología depende de la calidad de la imagen y cualquier anomalía en estos datos aumentará el error. El modelo generado debe ser recalibrado para otras formaciones, pozos horizontales, desviados y cuando se empleen registro de imágenes durante la perforación.
这项研究提出了一种使用电缆记录和机器学习技术计算总有机碳含量的替代方法;具体来说,使用井的电阻率图像、平均电阻率和伽马射线测井来训练回归模型。该方法已应用于月球形成,据报道月球是哥伦比亚和委内瑞拉西部的主要生成岩之一。这项工作的目的是教一台机器如何识别油井图像中分形特征与其总有机碳含量之间的模式。实现的机器学习基于集合学习技术,在这种情况下,是一组被称为随机森林的决策树。使用的数据共有960项记录测量,随机分为80%用于培训,20%用于验证。结果相当于根据密度记录值对岩芯中测量的有机碳进行半对数回归得出的曲线。该方法的精度足够高,可以在岩石物理评估中考虑,显示出0.44%的二次平均误差和0.88%的皮尔逊相关系数。该方法取决于图像质量,这些数据中的任何异常都会增加误差。生成的模型必须重新校准其他地层、水平井、斜井以及在钻井过程中使用图像记录时。
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引用次数: 1
2 3/4 dimension modeling of the aeromagnetic anomaly of Volcan de Colima, western Mexico 墨西哥西部Colima火山航磁异常的3/4维模拟
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-05-29 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2012.51.2.602
H. López-Loera
Se presentan los resultados de un modelo 2 3f4 D de Ia anomalía aeromagnetica del Volcán de Colima ubicado en Ia porción sur del Complejo Volcánico de Colima. El modelo estructural documenta Ia presencia de una cámara magmática de forma alargada con una longitud mayor a los 10 km en Ia dirección norte-sur y que se extiende mas de 6.6 km al sur del Volcán de Colima. El máximo espesor de Ia cámara magmática esta hacia el ESE del cráter del Volcán de Colima y tiene una extensión del orden de los 6.9 km. Hacia los bordes Ia cámara magmática presenta espesores del orden de los 820m a 620 m al sur y norte respectivamente. Bajo el Volcán de Colima de localiza a una profundidad entre 4.9 y 1.2 km bajo el nivel del mar. El modelo geofísico es consistente con las propuestas de Ia migración norte-sur de Ia actividad en el Complejo Volcánico de Colima.doi: sin doi
给出了位于科利马火山综合体南部的科利马火山AIA航磁异常的23F4 D模型的结果。结构模型记录了一个细长的岩浆室的存在,该岩浆室在南北方向的长度超过10公里,在科利马火山以南延伸超过6.6公里。IA岩浆室的最大厚度朝向科利马火山口的东部,延伸约6.9公里。在IA岩浆室的边缘,其厚度分别为南部和北部820至620米。科利马火山下方位于海平面以下4.9至1.2公里的深度。地球物理模型与科利马火山综合体中人工智能活动的人工智能南北迁移建议一致。DOI:没有DOI
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引用次数: 0
Voyager's observations in the vicinity of the heliopause 旅行者号在日顶附近的观测
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.2.2201
R. Caballero, J. Richardson
This work analyzes Voyager 2 observations on November 2018 and compares them with Voyager 1 data at the vicinity of the heliopause in July-August 2012. We describe the plasma and cosmic-ray variations at the radial distance of $approx$ 1 astronomical unit (AU) from the heliopause. We use a simple convection-diffusion cosmic-ray modulation model to qualitatively explain the particle observations. We found a thin layer, with a thickness of $approx$ 0.04 AU where the radial component of the solar wind speed vanished, the galactic cosmic ray intensity rapidly increased to reach its heliosphere boundary level, and low-energy heliospheric ion intensity drooped. We called this layer the "skin of the heliosphere". Plasma data suggest that Voyager 2 crossed the heliopause on November 5, 2018, at the radial distance of 119.03 AU. We apply our analysis to Voyager 1 observations and conclude that similar behavior in solar wind speed could qualitatively explain the GCR counting rate and that the "skin of the heliosphere" maybe a global characteristic along the heliopause.
这项工作分析了2018年11月旅行者2号的观测结果,并将其与2012年7月至8月旅行者1号在日顶附近的数据进行了比较。我们描述了在距离日顶$approxy$1天文单位(AU)的径向距离处的等离子体和宇宙射线的变化。我们使用一个简单的对流-扩散宇宙射线调制模型来定性地解释粒子观测。我们发现了一层厚度约为$0.04 AU的薄层,其中太阳风速的径向分量消失,银河系宇宙射线强度迅速增加,达到日球层边界水平,低能日球层离子强度下降。我们称这层为“日球层的表皮”。等离子体数据表明,旅行者2号于2018年11月5日以119.03 AU的径向距离穿过日顶。我们将我们的分析应用于旅行者1号的观测,得出结论,太阳风速的类似行为可以定性地解释GCR计数率,“日球层的表皮”可能是日顶的一个全球特征。
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引用次数: 0
New insights into the seismic activity of Damascus fault (Syria): a quantitative analysis 大马士革断层(叙利亚)地震活动的新见解:定量分析
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.2.2054
M. Abdul-Wahed
Damascus fault is a remarkable reverse tectonic structure trending directly adjacent to Damascus city, and may possibly represent a significant seismic hazard to the city. In this respect, the present work examines the instrumental seismic activity and establishes an earthquake catalogue covering the period 1995-2012 for this important fault, aiming to identify its contribution to the regional seismic hazard. The quantitative analysis reveals the Damascus fault is characterized by low magnitude earthquakes, which implies that the fault could be considered in quiescence status. The analysis exhibit the b-value of Gutenberg-Richter relationship is estimated to be 0.90 using the least-squares method, which could be compatible with a thrust faulting, such as Damascus fault, regarding the published literature. Also, this value could be reasonable for further interpretations. In addition, the return periods of large earthquakes have been estimated to be very long by extrapolation of the established recurrence relationship. Moreover, the maximum regional earthquake magnitude has been estimated by Kijko's procedure as maximum likelihood estimator. This procedure has predicted the maximum possible earthquake magnitude to be 4.2. Consequently, the seismic quiescence, observed actually along Damascus fault, and the estimated long return period implies that a large earthquake could be still so far away.
大马士革断层是一个显著的逆构造结构,与大马士革市直接相邻,可能对该市构成重大地震灾害。在这方面,本工作审查了仪器地震活动,并为这一重要断层建立了涵盖1995-2012年的地震目录,旨在确定其对区域地震灾害的贡献。定量分析表明,大马士革断层具有低震级地震特征,表明该断层处于静止状态。分析表明,根据已发表的文献,使用最小二乘法估计古腾堡-里希特关系的b值为0.90,这可能与逆冲断层(如大马士革断层)相兼容。此外,这个数值可能是合理的,可以作进一步的解释。此外,根据已建立的递推关系,估计大地震的重现期非常长。此外,还用Kijko程序作为最大似然估计器对区域最大地震震级进行了估计。该程序预测最大可能地震震级为4.2级。因此,实际上沿着大马士革断层观察到的地震平静期,以及估计的长重现期,意味着一场大地震可能仍然遥远。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the tectonic effects on soil radon activity along the margin of the Arabian plate boundary in northwestern Syria 叙利亚西北部阿拉伯板块边界边缘构造对土壤氡活动的影响评估
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.2.2197
M. Al-Hilal
The main purpose of the present study is to assess the role of active tectonics in influencing the emanation level of soil radon across two tectonically active structures of the Northern Dead Sea Fault (NDSF) in northwestern Syria: namely, the Qastoon and Al-Harif fault segments. The radon measurements were basically directed by the results drawn from earlier studies of archaeoseismic and paleoseismic investigation in Al-Harif, besides integrated geophysical and morphotectonic survey at the Qastoon site. In view of that, a total of 80 soil gas radon points were measured in this work with sampling depth of 75 cm, using AlphaGUARD PQ 2000Pro radon detector. The background range of normal radon emission from local soil was determined in area located away from the influence of the tectonic disturbances. The obtained radon data were statistically analyzed and the mean values have been standardized in terms of probability of magnitude which enhances the comparison process and so facilitating the separation of normal radon variations from other anomalous or geotectonic related values. The overall results revealed remarkable occurrences of fault-associated radon anomalies with maximum peak values of ~6 to 7 times above the background, trending in accordance with the predicted traces of the fault ruptures at the Qastoon and Al-Harif, respectively.
本研究的主要目的是评估活动构造在影响叙利亚西北部死海北部断层(NDSF)两个构造活动结构(即Qastoon和Al-Harif断层段)土壤氡释放水平方面的作用。除Qastoon现场的综合地球物理和地貌构造调查外,氡测量基本上是根据早期对Al Harif的古地震和古地震调查研究得出的结果进行的。鉴于此,本工作使用AlphaGUARD PQ 2000Pro氡探测器,在75 cm的采样深度下,共测量了80个土壤气体氡点。在远离构造扰动影响的区域确定了当地土壤正常氡排放的背景范围。对获得的氡数据进行了统计分析,并根据震级概率对平均值进行了标准化,这增强了比较过程,从而有助于将正常氡变化与其他异常或大地构造相关值分离。总体结果显示,断层相关的氡异常现象显著,最大峰值高出背景约6至7倍,其趋势分别与Qastoon和Al Harif断层破裂的预测轨迹一致。
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引用次数: 1
Seismic risk in the State of Colima, México: Application of a simplified methodology of the seismic risk evaluation for the localities with low-rise, non-engineered housing 墨西哥科利马州的地震风险:低层非工程住房地区地震风险评估简化方法的应用
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.2.2199
V. Zobin
The study of seismic risk is important element in the natural hazard assessment, especially in the regions of high seismic activity and low quality of housing. The new technologies, developed to reduce risk against natural hazards in large modern cities, are expensive and need in continuous instrumental monitoring of strong motions. The main problem in estimation of the seismic risk for the localities, representing with the vulnerable low-rise, non-engineered (LRNE) housing in many states of Africa, Asia and Latin America, consists in a search of an optimal and low-cost tool for estimation of the extent of physical damage to property for different type of housing. This article proposes a simplified methodology of the seismic risk evaluation for the localities, where the vulnerable LRNE houses represent most residential constructions. The methodology is based on evaluation of the following sources of information: the internet-available catalogs of world-wide of recent and historical earthquakes and visual inspection and classification of the vulnerability level of residential LRNE houses as well as a visual macroseismic inspection of the residential house damage after destructive earthquakes. This methodology is applied to the localities of the State of Colima, México characterizing with the LRNE type of residential houses. The prognostic of damage probability during large earthquake for residential houses in Colima city, based on this methodology, was firstly proposed in 1999 and then was updated in 2007 after the analysis of damage distribution during the Mw 7.5 earthquake of 2003 (MM VII in Colima city). This article presents microzoning of the seismic risk for two localities of Colima State together with a probabilistic prognostic of the expected damage in housing and financial losses during the maximum intensity earthquakes at the localities.
地震风险研究是自然灾害评估的重要内容,尤其是在地震活动频繁、住房质量低的地区。为降低现代大城市的自然灾害风险而开发的新技术成本高昂,需要对强运动进行持续的仪器监测。以非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲许多州脆弱的低层非工程(LRNE)住房为代表,估计当地地震风险的主要问题在于寻找最佳和低成本的工具来估计不同类型住房的财产物理损坏程度。本文提出了一种简化的地方地震风险评估方法,在这些地方,脆弱的LRNE房屋代表了大多数住宅建筑。该方法基于对以下信息来源的评估:全球近期和历史地震的互联网可用目录,住宅LRNE房屋脆弱性等级的目视检查和分类,以及破坏性地震后住宅损坏的目视宏观地震检查。该方法适用于墨西哥科利马州以LRNE型住宅为特征的地区。基于该方法,Colima市住宅在大地震中的损坏概率预测于1999年首次提出,并在分析2003年7.5级地震(Colima VII级)期间的损坏分布后于2007年进行了更新。本文对科利马州两个地区的地震风险进行了微观分区,并对该地区最大强度地震期间的预期房屋损失和经济损失进行了概率预测。
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引用次数: 0
Complejación de metales por sustancias húmicas acuáticas como proceso natural, tomando como caso de estudio el Lago de Xochimilco 以Xochimilco湖为例,水生腐殖质对金属的络合是一种自然过程
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.1.2188
María de Jesús González-Guadarrama, Silvia E. Castillo-Blum, M. A. Armienta
  Abstract 22 This work discusses the importance of organic matter, specifically Aquatic Humic Substances (SHA) 23 within the speciation and distribution of metals within an aquatic system, in this case Xochimilco 24 Lake, a site with great ecological importance. This lake is the natural habitat of the endemic species 25 “axolotl” (ajolote). In this research, complexation reactions between SHA and metals (Cu, Mn, Pb 26 and Zn) were carried out under different reaction conditions, the source of AHS was water samples 27 taken in Xochimilco Lake in presence and absence of pH buffer dissolution and varying the 28 concentration of metals. The results show that there is a direct competition between the major 29 elements and trace elements to react with the AHS. Under the pH conditions of Xochimilco Lake 30 complexes formation is possible. 31
摘要:本文以具有重要生态意义的霍奇米尔科24湖为例,探讨了有机物质,特别是水生腐殖质(SHA) 23在水生系统中金属形态和分布中的重要性。这个湖是当地特有物种“美西螈”(ajolote)的自然栖息地。本研究在不同的反应条件下进行了SHA与金属(Cu、Mn、pb26和Zn)的络合反应,AHS的来源为霍奇米尔科湖的水样27,存在和不存在pH缓冲溶解度,并改变金属的浓度。结果表明,29种主要元素与微量元素之间存在直接竞争,与AHS发生反应。在霍奇米尔科湖的pH条件下,可能形成30个配合物。31
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引用次数: 0
Projection of land use to 2030 and its impacts on water availability in a brazilian sub-basin: A LCM and SWAT approach 到2030年巴西亚流域土地利用预测及其对水资源的影响:LCM和SWAT方法
IF 0.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2022.61.1.2189
Adriana Paulo de Sousa Oliveira, Rafaela Ribeiro Gracelli, Arthur Amaral e Silva, Vitor Juste dos Santos, Jackeline de Siqueira Castro, M. Calijuri
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can result in significant changes in a hydrographic ba- sin flow regime. Future projections about LULC and its interference with water availability help to identify extreme events in advance and help propose appropriate management measures. Thus, this study aimed to make the LULC projection for the year 2030 for the Alto Rio Grande (ARG) sub- basin, located in Southeastern Brazil. This region was chosen because of its intense water resources use and for having recently faced water scarcity as result of prolonged droughts and inadequate water resources management. To identify the LULC trend for the year 2030, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used, the map obtained was inserted in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model previously calibrated and validated for the region’ environmental and climatic conditions. The ARG sub-basin was affected by heavy rains in 2011, which resulted in changes in the landscape due to landslides. This particularity of the region contributed to the projection of LULC for the year 2030 to present an increase in forest and pastures to the agricultural areas detriment. When evaluating the impacts of these changes in water availability, it was observed that the SWAT model presented, for the same rainfall conditions, a reduction in peak streamflows of up to 59% and a reduction in the average monthly flow of up to 63% in 2030 in relation to the LULC observed in 2017. Thus, this study provides an important contribution by identifying a considerable reduction in water availability. These results will help to formulate strategies for water resources management and the adoption of measures to promote water security in the region.
土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)的变化会导致水文水文流态的显著变化。未来对LULC及其对水供应干扰的预测有助于提前识别极端事件,并有助于提出适当的管理措施。因此,本研究旨在对位于巴西东南部的Alto里约热内卢Grande (ARG)次盆地的2030年LULC进行预测。选择这一区域是因为其大量使用水资源,并且由于长期干旱和水资源管理不足,最近面临缺水问题。为了确定2030年的LULC趋势,使用了Land Change Modeler (LCM),将获得的地图插入到土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)模型中,该模型先前针对该地区的环境和气候条件进行了校准和验证。2011年,ARG子盆地受暴雨影响,山体滑坡导致景观发生变化。该地区的这种特殊性促使对2030年土地利用和土地利用能力的预测显示,森林和牧场的增加将对农业地区造成损害。在评估这些水可用性变化的影响时,观察到SWAT模型显示,在相同的降雨条件下,与2017年观测到的LULC相比,2030年的峰值流量减少了59%,平均月流量减少了63%。因此,这项研究通过确定可用水的大量减少作出了重要贡献。这些结果将有助于制定水资源管理战略,并采取措施促进该地区的水安全。
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Geofisica Internacional
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