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Caveat Emptor: Does Bitcoin Improve Portfolio Diversification? 买者自负:比特币能提高投资组合多样化吗?
Pub Date : 2015-06-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2408997
A. Eisl, Stephan M. Gasser, Karl Weinmayer
Bitcoin is an unregulated digital currency originally introduced in 2008 without legal tender status. Based on a decentralized peer-to-peer network to confirm transactions and generate a limited amount of new bitcoins, it functions without the backing of a central bank or any other monitoring authority. In recent years, Bitcoin has seen increasing media coverage and trading volume, as well as major capital gains and losses in a high volatility environment. Interestingly, an analysis of Bitcoin returns shows remarkably low correlations with traditional investment assets such as other currencies, stocks, bonds or commodities such as gold or oil. In this paper, we shed light on the impact an investment in Bitcoin can have on an already well-diversified investment portfolio. Due to the non-normal nature of Bitcoin returns, we do not propose the classic mean-variance approach, but adopt at Conditional Value-at-Risk framework that does not require asset returns to be normally distributed. Our results indicate that Bitcoin should be included in optimal portfolios. Even though an investment in Bitcoin increases the CVaR of a portfolio, this additional risk is overcompensated by high returns leading to better risk-return ratios.
比特币是一种不受监管的数字货币,最初于2008年推出,没有法定货币地位。基于去中心化的点对点网络来确认交易并生成有限数量的新比特币,它在没有中央银行或任何其他监督机构支持的情况下运行。近年来,比特币的媒体报道和交易量不断增加,在高波动性的环境中也出现了重大的资本收益和损失。有趣的是,对比特币回报的分析显示,比特币与其他货币、股票、债券或黄金或石油等大宗商品等传统投资资产的相关性非常低。在本文中,我们阐明了对比特币的投资对已经非常多样化的投资组合的影响。由于比特币收益的非正态性,我们没有提出经典的均值-方差方法,而是采用不要求资产收益为正态分布的条件风险价值框架。我们的研究结果表明,比特币应该包含在最优投资组合中。尽管对比特币的投资增加了投资组合的CVaR,但这种额外的风险被高回报所过度补偿,从而导致更好的风险回报比。
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引用次数: 125
Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia 东亚地区资本项目限制和汇率制度的调整
Pub Date : 2015-04-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2589433
N. Yoshino, Sahoko Kaji, T. Asonuma
This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: Gradual adjustments and rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e., capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes. The paper provides prominent country cases for each adjustment option to emphasize the benefits for policymakers. We then propose four transition policy options for East Asian countries aiming to relax capital account restrictions and increase flexibility in exchange rates from fixed regimes with capital account controls.
本文讨论了东亚地区资本账户限制和汇率制度的调整。货币当局对这些调整有两种选择:渐进调整和快速调整。我们分析了每个领域两种调整方案的成本和收益,即资本账户限制和汇率制度。本文为每种调整方案提供了突出的国家案例,以强调政策制定者的利益。然后,我们为东亚国家提出了四种转型政策选择,旨在放松资本账户限制,增加资本账户管制固定制度下汇率的灵活性。
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引用次数: 5
Localized Complementary Currencies: The New Tool for Policymakers? The Sardex Exchange System 本地化互补货币:政策制定者的新工具?Sardex交易系统
Pub Date : 2015-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2653410
Rod Mayer
Sardex was created in 2010 in Sardinia, Italy. Today, it has 2500 users and it is growing exponentially. It is one of the three pilot projects of the European Union’s Digipay4Growth, which tests three complementary currencies’ capacity to provide business and access to credit to SMEs and foster growth: in Sardinia, Bristol, and Catalunya. This paper analyses the microeconomic benefits for Sardex users, building the macroeconomic framework necessary to model the Sardex network. It evaluates the advantages to consumers, firms, and policymakers, adapting the models of investment (Tobin’s q) and consumption (permanent income hypothesis) underlying the traditional IS curve, to the dual currency framework. It shows that Sardex increases consumption and investment, enabling firms to obtain higher profits, and enabling consumers to smoothen consumption by relaxing credit constraints, while supporting the local economy. Hence, it shows that Sardex produces a permanent real output gain, a countercyclical, stabilising effect on the economy, and that it provides additional sources of income for the government - besides an extraordinary economic insight into the economy.
Sardex于2010年在意大利撒丁岛创建。今天,它拥有2500名用户,并且呈指数级增长。这是欧盟Digipay4Growth的三个试点项目之一,该项目在撒丁岛、布里斯托尔和加泰罗尼亚测试三种互补货币为中小企业提供业务和信贷并促进增长的能力。本文分析了Sardex用户的微观经济效益,构建了Sardex网络建模所需的宏观经济框架。它评估了消费者、企业和政策制定者的优势,将传统IS曲线基础上的投资模型(托宾q)和消费模型(永久收入假设)调整为双重货币框架。这表明Sardex增加了消费和投资,使企业获得更高的利润,并使消费者通过放松信贷约束来平滑消费,同时支持当地经济。因此,它表明Sardex产生了永久性的实际产出增长,对经济产生了反周期的稳定效应,而且除了对经济的非凡经济洞察力之外,它还为政府提供了额外的收入来源。
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引用次数: 0
Why Bitcoin Fails as Money: An Operational Risk Analysis 比特币作为货币为何失败:操作风险分析
Pub Date : 2015-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3864612
Angela Walch
[NOTE: This paper was written in late 2014 and early 2015. It is relevant given the continued movement of Bitcoin toward the mainstream, exemplified by El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in June 2021.]

After a slow beginning in 2009, the digital currency Bitcoin has edged closer to the mainstream, and regulators are scrambling to determine what to do with it. So far, they have focused on harms that its use creates, such as easy money laundering and sales of illicit goods. But Bitcoin’s ability to grease the wheels of crime is not the only risk we should worry about. Rather, due to its status as decentralized, open-source software, Bitcoin poses a risk that money has not historically been subject to – the risk that the money will just stop working one day due to a technology or basic governance problem.

Illuminating the importance of reliable money to our society, this paper unpacks the operational risks generated by Bitcoin’s very structure, such as the inherent vulnerabilities of software to bugs and attacks, the governance problems spawned by its decentralized structure and open-source nature, and the lack of monetary expertise of the coders who run the currency. Explicitly considering how each operational risk impacts Bitcoin’s status as money, I conclude that the aggregation of Bitcoin’s operational risks means that it is simply not durable enough to serve as money – even if it becomes widely accepted and achieves a stable value.

With hundreds of millions of dollars in investments now pouring into Bitcoin and the larger virtual currency ecosystem, and with more and more prominent individuals jumping daily on the Bitcoin bandwagon, this paper urges regulators and policy-makers to specifically address Bitcoin’s critical operational risks as they design the soon-to-come regulations for virtual currencies.
[注:本文撰写于2014年底至2015年初。鉴于比特币继续向主流发展,例如萨尔瓦多在2021年6月采用比特币作为法定货币,这是相关的。在经历了2009年的缓慢起步后,数字货币比特币已经逐渐接近主流,监管机构正在争先恐后地决定如何处理它。到目前为止,他们关注的是使用比特币带来的危害,比如容易洗钱和销售非法商品。但比特币助长犯罪的能力并不是我们应该担心的唯一风险。相反,由于其作为去中心化、开源软件的地位,比特币带来了一种货币从未经历过的风险——由于技术或基本治理问题,比特币有一天会停止运作的风险。本文阐明了可靠货币对我们社会的重要性,揭示了比特币本身结构所产生的操作风险,例如软件对漏洞和攻击的固有脆弱性,其分散结构和开源性质所产生的治理问题,以及运营该货币的编码人员缺乏货币专业知识。明确考虑每个操作风险如何影响比特币作为货币的地位,我得出的结论是,比特币操作风险的总和意味着它根本不够耐用,无法充当货币——即使它被广泛接受并达到稳定的价值。随着数亿美元的投资涌入比特币和更大的虚拟货币生态系统,越来越多的知名人士每天都在加入比特币的行列,本文敦促监管机构和政策制定者在设计即将出台的虚拟货币法规时,专门解决比特币的关键操作风险。
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引用次数: 1
Persistence of Current‐Account Disequilibria and Real Exchange‐Rate Misalignments 经常账户失衡和实际汇率失调的持续存在
Pub Date : 2015-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12161
Blaise Gnimassoun, V. Mignon
This paper aims at studying whether the persistence of the gap between the observed current-account position and its equilibrium value nonlinearly depends on real exchange-rate misalignments. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we find evidence for this hypothesis, showing that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on the deviation of the real exchange rate from its long-term equilibrium. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non-eurozone members.
本文旨在研究观察到的经常项目头寸与其均衡值之间的差距的持久性是否非线性地依赖于实际汇率失调。通过对22个工业化国家样本的面板平滑过渡回归模型进行估计,我们发现了这一假设的证据,表明经常账户失衡的持续存在强烈依赖于实际汇率与其长期均衡的偏离。更具体地说,虽然在货币低估或弱高估的情况下没有持久性,但当高估超过11%时,持久性往往会增加。此外,尽管欧元区的不平衡即使在估值非常低的情况下也会持续存在,但只有在非欧元区成员国的估值高于14%的情况下才会持续存在。
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引用次数: 31
Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Regime 人民币汇率形成机制的演变
Pub Date : 2014-12-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2543400
Wen Si
Since China is becoming an increasingly important player in the world economic scene, its exchange rate policy, among other issues, have attracted the great attention of global financial markets and policymakers. Our paper takes a closer look at the evolution of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate regime since 1979, which can be characterized by four phases including 1979-1984, 1985-1993, 1994-June 2005, and July 2005 to date. RMB exchange rate regime transformed from a centrally planned administrative mechanism to a dual track exchange rate system, then to a managed float with a very narrow band — a de facto peg to the U.S. dollar, and eventually to a managed float with reference to a basket of currencies. In addition, the appendix of our paper provides a chronicle of the RMB exchange rate regime reform during the period from 1979 to 2014.
由于中国在世界经济舞台上扮演着越来越重要的角色,其汇率政策等问题引起了全球金融市场和政策制定者的高度关注。本文对1979年以来人民币汇率形成机制的演变进行了较为细致的考察,认为人民币汇率形成机制的演变可分为四个阶段:1979-1984年、1985-1993年、1994- 2005年6月和2005年7月至今。人民币汇率形成机制从中央计划的行政机制到双轨制,再到窄幅有管理的浮动,即实际上盯住美元,最后到参考一篮子货币进行有管理的浮动。此外,本文的附录提供了1979年至2014年人民币汇率形成机制改革的编年史。
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引用次数: 2
Which Digital Currency is Best Fit for Purpose? 哪种数字货币最适合用途?
Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2518020
S. Turnbull
This paper is based on a public submission to the Australian Senate Committee “Inquiry into Digital Currency” announced on October 2, 2014. The committee is to report to Parliament in March 2015. A framework is established that identifies ten reasons why digital Australian dollars are not fit for purpose as a medium of exchange and unit of account/value. To provide a reference unit of value to compare Bitcoins and the other types of crypto and digital currencies, a hypothetical negative interest-rate tethered currency described as $Z is introduced. Twenty benefits of accepting $Z are identified to support their introduction as a supplementary official currency and a more attractive alternative to Bitcoins in the event of another financial crisis. The paper recommends that regulators accept $Z like currencies and for the government to establish the technology to collect taxes and issue $Z like money through mobile phones to finance welfare and infrastructure without increasing debt or taxes.
本文基于2014年10月2日公布的澳大利亚参议院委员会“数字货币调查”的公开提交。该委员会将于2015年3月向议会报告。建立了一个框架,确定了数字澳元不适合作为交换媒介和账户/价值单位的十个原因。为了提供一个参考价值单位来比较比特币和其他类型的加密货币和数字货币,引入了一种假设的负利率捆绑货币,称为Z美元。接受Z美元有20个好处,以支持将其引入辅助官方货币,并在发生另一场金融危机时成为比特币更有吸引力的替代品。该论文建议监管机构接受类似Z美元的货币,并建议政府建立征税技术,并通过手机发行类似Z美元的货币,在不增加债务或税收的情况下为福利和基础设施提供资金。
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引用次数: 0
The Possible Breakup of the Euro Zone: Examining the Differences between Credit Default Swap Fees Nominated in Euro and US-Dollar During the Euro-Area Crisis. 欧元区可能的解体:欧元区危机期间欧元和美元信用违约互换费用差异的检验。
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2521454
Hasan Doluca
Before the beginning of the euro-area crisis, fees (premiums) for Credit Default Swaps (CDS) for the same entity (country) but nominated in different currencies were nearly equal. This is still true for non-euro area countries during the crisis; but these differences increased dramatically for euro-area countries since the beginning of the crisis. For some euro-area countries investors have to pay more for Euro compared to US-Dollar nominated CDSs, while for other euro-area countries the opposite is true. This paper analyzes by using a simple theoretical model and thereafter testing empirically the differences between CDS fees nominated in Euro and US-Dollar and concludes that the volatility of the differences is largely explained, next to the US-Dollar-Euro forward rate, by the probability of collapse of the Euro(-currency). Market uncertainty is shown to play a significant role; nevertheless, it only explains a small fraction of the volatility of these differences. Further, our empirical results imply that for the countries analyzed in this paper – Germany, France, Finland and Italy – market participants expect in the case of a euro-collapse and the subsequent failure of the respective sovereign a depreciation of the newly introduced local currency.
在欧元区危机开始之前,同一实体(国家)的信用违约掉期(CDS)的费用(溢价)以不同货币命名几乎是相等的。危机期间,非欧元区国家依然如此;但自危机开始以来,欧元区国家之间的差异急剧增加。对于一些欧元区国家,投资者必须为欧元支付比美元提名的cds更高的价格,而对于其他欧元区国家,情况正好相反。本文通过一个简单的理论模型进行分析,然后对欧元和美元计价的CDS费用差异进行实证检验,得出的结论是,除了美元-欧元远期汇率之外,差异的波动性在很大程度上可以用欧元(货币)崩溃的概率来解释。市场不确定性在其中发挥了重要作用;然而,它只能解释这些差异波动的一小部分。此外,我们的实证结果表明,对于本文分析的国家——德国、法国、芬兰和意大利——市场参与者预计,在欧元崩溃和随后各自主权失败的情况下,新引入的本币将贬值。
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引用次数: 0
Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone 欧元区实际汇率与部门生产率
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2512595
Martin Berka, M. Devereux, C. Engel
We investigate the link between real exchange rates and sectoral TFP for eurozone countries. We show that real exchange rate variation, both cross-country and time-series, closely accords with an amended Balassa-Samuelson interpretation, incorporating sectoral productivity shocks and a labor market wedge. We construct a DSGE model to generate a cross section and time series of real exchange rates to compare to data. Estimates from simulated regressions are very similar to estimates for eurozone data. Our findings contrast with previous studies that have found little relationship between productivity and real exchange rates among high-income countries that have floating nominal exchange rates. (JEL E12, E23, E24, F31, F33, F43)
我们研究了欧元区国家实际汇率与部门TFP之间的联系。我们发现,实际汇率变化,无论是跨国家的还是时间序列的,都与修正后的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森解释密切一致,其中包括部门生产率冲击和劳动力市场楔子。我们构建了一个DSGE模型来生成实际汇率的横截面和时间序列,以便与数据进行比较。模拟回归的估计值与欧元区数据的估计值非常相似。我们的发现与之前的研究形成了对比,之前的研究发现,在实行浮动名义汇率的高收入国家,生产率与实际汇率之间几乎没有关系。(jel e12, e23, e24, f31, f33, f43)
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引用次数: 93
Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure and Corporate Policies 外汇汇率风险敞口和公司政策
Pub Date : 2014-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2489695
Yu.R. Ivanova
Despite the fact that empirical tests estimate foreign exchange rate exposure net of corporate hedging, there are still firms that exhibit significant residual exposures. It is believed that when faced with higher foreign exchange rate exposure, companies are more likely to run into an underinvestment problem. Therefore, in the current study I explore whether foreign exchange rate exposure is reflected in corporate policies beyond hedging. I establish that companies with higher foreign exchange rate exposure tend to hold more cash, have a higher likelihood of accessing capital markets and are less likely to issue dividends. Further, the relationship between foreign exchange rate exposure and these corporate policies is more pronounced for firms for which the underinvestment problem is likely to be more severe, namely firms with higher growth opportunities and firms operating in more competitive industries. Thus, I believe that exchange rate exposure is relevant not only to the decisions of multinational corporations with international involvement. In support, I find that half of the significant foreign exchange rate exposures in my sample come from firms with only domestic sales.
尽管事实上,实证测试估计的外汇风险敞口净企业对冲,仍有公司表现出显著的剩余风险敞口。据信,当面临更高的汇率风险时,企业更有可能遇到投资不足的问题。因此,在目前的研究中,我探讨汇率风险是否反映在对冲之外的公司政策中。我确定,外汇风险敞口较高的公司往往持有更多现金,进入资本市场的可能性更高,而且不太可能派发股息。此外,对于投资不足问题可能更严重的公司,即具有更高增长机会的公司和在更有竞争力的行业中经营的公司,外汇风险与这些公司政策之间的关系更为明显。因此,我认为汇率风险敞口不仅与跨国公司的决策有关。为了支持这一点,我发现在我的样本中,有一半的重大外汇风险敞口来自只在国内销售的公司。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (International) (Topic)
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