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Price Discovery of Internationally Cross-Listed Stocks During the 2008 Financial Crisis 2008年金融危机期间国际交叉上市股票的价格发现
Pub Date : 2016-09-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2805760
Jimmy Lockwood, L. Lockwood, Sie Ting Lau
We examine 46 cross-listings characterized by varying degrees of order execution from Canada, Brazil, and Mexico onto the NYSE during 2008. We develop a measure of order execution advantage (OEA) and find that OEA and price discovery migrate towards the home market during the financial crisis in the latter part of 2008, and notably more for firms subjected to the short selling ban imposed by the SEC. We show the NYSE’s percent adjustment to exchange rates and differences in price impacts are key variables that capture cross-sectional variation in the NYSE’s share in price discovery.
我们研究了2008年期间从加拿大、巴西和墨西哥到纽约证券交易所的46个以不同程度的订单执行为特征的交叉上市。我们开发了一种订单执行优势(OEA)的测量方法,并发现在2008年下半年的金融危机期间,OEA和价格发现向国内市场迁移,特别是对于受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)实施的卖空禁令影响的公司。我们表明,纽交所对汇率的调整百分比和价格影响的差异是捕捉纽交所价格发现份额横截面变化的关键变量。
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引用次数: 4
Fundamental Re-Examination of Keynesian Economics and Monetarism as Portfolio Adjustment Theories: Towards the Fundamental Reformation of Modern Macroeconomics 对作为投资组合调整理论的凯恩斯主义经济学和货币主义的根本性反思——兼论现代宏观经济学的根本性改革
Pub Date : 2016-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2845548
Shigetaro Wakabayashi
The quantity theory of money is a theory that the quantity of money matters in income creation. Curiously, this theory may be developed in two mutually exclusive manners. One is by thinking that the quantity of money that matters in income creation is the quantity of money “in” circulation because the primary role of money is the role of a “means of exchange.” The other is by thinking that the quantity of money that matters in this sense is the quantity of money “out of” circulation because the primary role of money is the role of a “means of hoarding,” or an “asset.” Keynesian economics (both old and new) and monetarism have evolved from the latter standpoint as portfolio adjustment theories. Moreover, though in general not properly understood, post-war mainstream macroeconomics has always been such portfolio adjustment theories. To tell whether money is really primarily a means of hoarding as literally all current mainstream macroeconomists firmly believe, this paper re-examines the trend of liquidity preference in the inter-war two decades which saw the Great Depression, and also that in the last two decades which saw the Great Recession. In each case, the result is unambiguously in favor of the idea that money is primarily a “means of exchange.” The quantity of money that matters in income creation is the quantity of money “in” circulation, not that out of circulation. Modern macroeconomics must be fundamentally reformed accordingly.
货币数量理论是一种理论,认为货币的数量在收入创造中很重要。奇怪的是,这一理论可能以两种相互排斥的方式发展。一种是认为在创造收入中起重要作用的货币数量是流通中的货币数量,因为货币的主要作用是“交换手段”。另一种观点认为,在这种意义上,重要的货币数量是“退出”流通的货币数量,因为货币的主要作用是“囤积手段”或“资产”。凯恩斯主义经济学(无论是旧的还是新的)和货币主义都是从后者的立场发展而来的,即投资组合调整理论。此外,战后主流宏观经济学虽然总体上没有得到正确理解,但一直都是这样的投资组合调整理论。为了判断货币是否真的像当前所有主流宏观经济学家所坚信的那样,主要是一种囤积手段,本文重新审视了两次世界大战之间20年的流动性偏好趋势,这20年见证了大萧条,以及过去20年见证了大衰退。在每种情况下,结果都明确地支持货币主要是一种“交换手段”的观点。在创造收入中起重要作用的货币数量是流通中的货币数量,而不是流通之外的货币数量。现代宏观经济学必须进行根本性的改革。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Interactions between Government Bonds and Exchange Rate Expectations in Currency Options 货币期权中政府债券与汇率预期的动态交互作用
Pub Date : 2016-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2844663
C. Hui, Edward Tan
This paper examines the dynamic interactions between the government bond yields of Germany, Japan and the US and their exchange rate expectations anticipated in the currency options, i.e., risk reversals (put premia) of the US dollar versus the yen and euro. Short-term, one-way information flow from the government bond market to the currency option market was substantial before the introduction of quantitative easing by the US Fed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis; this pattern diminished after the 2013 taper tantrum. The long-term bond yields are important and separable determinants of the risk reversals. The negative relationship between the spreads of the US Treasury yield over the other two countries’ bond yields, and the dollar risk reversals indicating a fall in US dollar interest rate, implies dollar depreciation expectations embedded in currency option prices, not an appreciation, as predicted by uncovered interest rate parity.
本文考察了德国、日本和美国政府债券收益率与货币期权中预期的汇率预期之间的动态相互作用,即美元对日元和欧元的风险逆转(看跌溢价)。在美联储(Fed)为应对2008年全球金融危机而推出量化宽松政策之前,从国债市场到货币期权市场的短期、单向信息流是巨大的;这种模式在2013年“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)之后消失了。长期债券收益率是风险逆转的重要可分离决定因素。美国国债收益率与其他两个国家债券收益率之间的利差呈负相关,而美元风险逆转显示美元利率将下降,这意味着美元贬值预期隐含在货币期权价格中,而不是像未披露的利率平价所预测的那样存在升值预期。
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引用次数: 0
VATCoin: The GCC's Cryptotaxcurrency VATCoin:海湾合作委员会的加密货币
Pub Date : 2016-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2916321
R. T. Ainsworth, Musaad Alwohaibi, Mike Cheetham
Bitcoin is the world’s first peer-to-peer cryptocurrency. VATCoin is similar, but it is used in tax compliance. Both Bitcoin and VATCoin are distributive ledger applications built upon blockchain technology. Bitcoin’s ledger is public; VATCoin’s is private. If adopted, VATCoin could well become the world’s first government-mandated cryptotaxcurrency. Unlike Bitcoin, VATCoin will not be a speculative currency. It is always fixed to the home currency. This paper proposes that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) adopt VATCoin in its VAT Framework. The GCC is expected to have multiple 5% VATs in place by January 1, 2018. There is an ample amount of time to install a VATCoin regime. If VATCoin is adopted by the GCC as the exclusive currency for payment of VAT in the GCC, it will eclipse (by about five years) the 2016 World Economic Forum’s estimated timeline for the first use of blockchain technology in tax collection. Furthermore, if VATCoin is implemented by the GCC in conjunction with a Digital Invoice Customs Exchange (DICE), the Gulf States will have one of the most fiscally efficient, technologically advanced, and fraud-proof VAT systems ever established. With DICE a granular, transaction-level record of commercial activity is captured. With VATCoin no tax is paid or held in real currency; VAT is paid, remitted and collected only in VATCoin. Only the government can convert VATCoin to real currency, and aside from the treasury function they will do so only in a limited number of instances.
比特币是世界上第一个点对点加密货币。VATCoin是类似的,但它用于税务合规。比特币和VATCoin都是基于区块链技术构建的分布式账本应用程序。比特币的账簿是公开的;VATCoin是私有的。如果被采用,VATCoin很可能成为世界上第一个政府授权的加密货币。与比特币不同,VATCoin不会是一种投机货币。它总是与本国货币挂钩。本文建议海湾合作委员会(GCC)在其增值税框架中采用VATCoin。预计到2018年1月1日,海湾合作委员会将实施多个5%的增值税。有足够的时间来安装VATCoin制度。如果VATCoin被海湾合作委员会(GCC)采用为海湾合作委员会(GCC)中支付增值税的专用货币,它将超过2016年世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)首次在税收中使用区块链技术的估计时间(大约5年)。此外,如果海湾合作委员会与数字发票海关交易所(DICE)一起实施VATCoin,海湾国家将拥有有史以来最具财政效率,技术先进和防欺诈的增值税系统之一。使用DICE可以捕获商业活动的细粒度、事务级记录。使用VATCoin,不需要以实际货币支付或持有税款;增值税仅在VATCoin中支付、汇出和收取。只有政府可以将VATCoin转换为真正的货币,除了财政职能外,他们只会在有限的情况下这样做。
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引用次数: 9
Does the Currency Exposure Matter in the Chinese Automobile Industry? 货币风险对中国汽车行业有影响吗?
Pub Date : 2016-07-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2804229
Bo Tang
This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures of Chinese automobile firms at different time horizons. Empirical findings reveal that firm returns are less likely to be affected by currency movements at short-term (daily) horizons due to restrictions on the currency daily trading band, but (a)symmetric exchange rate exposures appear to be significant at relatively longer horizons after the launch of RMB internationalisation, particularly for monthly horizons. The evidence also show that returns of ordinary auto firms underperform those of Fortune 500 and B-share auto firms in response to exchange rate changes. As for hedging strategies, firms may consider listing shares on foreign stock exchange in addition to the domestic market and produce products simultaneously in foreign nations through international expansion.
本研究考察了中国汽车企业在不同时间尺度下的对称和非对称汇率风险。实证研究结果显示,由于对货币日交易区间的限制,企业收益在短期(日)范围内不太可能受到货币波动的影响,但是(a)在人民币国际化启动后,对称汇率风险敞口在相对较长的范围内显得很重要,特别是在月度范围内。证据还表明,在汇率变化的影响下,普通汽车公司的回报率低于财富500强和b股汽车公司的回报率。在对冲策略方面,企业可以考虑在国内市场之外在国外证券交易所上市,并通过国际扩张在国外同步生产产品。
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引用次数: 0
CRIX an Index for Blockchain Based Currencies CRIX是基于区块链的货币指数
Pub Date : 2016-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2800928
Simon Trimborn, W. Härdle
The S&P500 or DAX30 are important benchmarks for the financial industry. These and other indices describe different compositions of certain segments of the financial markets. For currency markets, the IMF offers the index SDR. Prior to the Euro, the ECU existed, which was an index representing the development of European currencies. It is surprising, though, to see that the common index providers have not mapped emerging e-coins into an index yet because with cryptos like Bitcoin, a new kind of asset of great public interest has arisen. Index providers decide on a fixed number of index constituents which will represent the market segment. It is a huge challenge to set this fixed number and develop the rules to find the constituents, especially since markets change and this has to be taken into account. A method relying on the AIC is proposed to quickly react to market changes and therefore enable us to create an index, referred to as CRIX, for the cryptocurrency market.
标准普尔500指数或DAX30指数是金融行业的重要基准。这些指数和其他指数描述了金融市场某些部分的不同组成。对于外汇市场,IMF提供了SDR指数。在欧元出现之前,欧洲货币单位已经存在,它是一个代表欧洲货币发展的指数。然而,令人惊讶的是,常见的指数提供商还没有将新兴的电子货币映射到指数中,因为像比特币这样的加密货币,一种引起公众极大兴趣的新资产已经出现。指数提供者决定一个固定数量的指数组成部分,这些组成部分将代表细分市场。设定这个固定的数字并制定规则来找到这些成分是一项巨大的挑战,尤其是在市场变化的情况下,这一点必须考虑在内。提出了一种依赖于AIC的方法来快速响应市场变化,从而使我们能够为加密货币市场创建一个称为CRIX的指数。
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引用次数: 36
Bringing the Central Bank into the Study of Currency Internationalization: Monetary Policy, Independence, and Internationalization 将中央银行纳入货币国际化研究:货币政策、独立性与国际化
Pub Date : 2016-02-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2736663
Hyoung‐kyu Chey, Y. Li
Despite the central bank's crucial position in the economy, as the issuer of the currency and the body responsible for monetary policy, its preferences regarding currency internationalization and its roles in that process have rarely been analyzed in the literature. This study attempts to fill this critical gap by bringing the central bank into the study of currency internationalization. A conventional understanding of currency internationalization is that it tends to reduce monetary policy autonomy, which implies a natural tendency of the central bank to oppose it. This study shows, however, that currency internationalization does not necessarily reduce the central bank's monetary policy autonomy, and may in fact even strengthen it. It shows that currency internationalization is likely to strengthen the central bank's independence as well. Based on these findings, this study argues that a central bank with weak monetary policy autonomy and low independence is more likely to support the internationalization of its country's currency. These arguments are empirically verified, mainly by in-depth analysis of the case of the People's Bank of China and the renminbi.
尽管中央银行在经济中的关键地位,作为货币的发行者和负责货币政策的机构,它对货币国际化的偏好及其在这一过程中的作用在文献中很少被分析。本研究试图通过将中央银行纳入货币国际化研究来填补这一关键空白。对货币国际化的传统理解是,它倾向于降低货币政策的自主权,这意味着中央银行自然倾向于反对它。然而,本研究表明,货币国际化并不一定会降低央行的货币政策自主权,实际上甚至可能会增强央行的货币政策自主权。这表明,货币国际化也有可能加强央行的独立性。基于这些发现,本研究认为货币政策自主性弱、独立性低的央行更有可能支持本国货币的国际化。这些观点主要通过对中国人民银行和人民币案例的深入分析得到了实证验证。
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引用次数: 4
Internationalising the Currency While Leveraging Massively: The Case of China 在大规模杠杆作用下实现货币国际化:以中国为例
Pub Date : 2015-10-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2842518
A. Garcia-Herrero
After a slowdown in reform momentum during the global financial crisis, there is a clear push towards reform, especially in terms of RMB internationalisation. During the same period, though, China’s debt has doubled, reaching levels that are clearly above those of most emerging markets. This increases the risks embedded in financial reform and, in particular, capital account liberalisation. At this juncture, however, China has no option but to press for reform since the current growth model is no longer working and China urgently needs to better allocate its savings.
在国际金融危机期间,中国的改革势头有所放缓,但现在改革势头明显,特别是在人民币国际化方面。然而,在同一时期,中国的债务翻了一番,达到了明显高于大多数新兴市场的水平。这增加了金融改革(尤其是资本账户自由化)所蕴含的风险。然而,在这个关键时刻,中国别无选择,只能推动改革,因为目前的增长模式不再奏效,中国迫切需要更好地配置储蓄。
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引用次数: 2
The Chinese Yuan vs. Swiss Franc as a New Gold Standard for World Currency 人民币vs瑞士法郎作为世界货币的新金本位
Pub Date : 2015-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2635100
Doc. Dr. Aleksandar Arsov
I refer in this research to the example like Japan, where initially are increased the interest rates on bonds. Only after the Bank of Japan made move the turnaround in interest rates took place then provided actually an economic crash in Japan. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is currently investigating the inclusion of the Chinese currency, the yuan, in the currency basket of the IMF. To this date only the euro, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound are represented. Thus, China will play an increasingly larger role in the future in world monetary matters. The drama surrounding Greece is indeed close to the end - but how the solution will actually look like it is not yet clear. Basically, it can only rely on some sort of compromise. This puts the major stock exchanges in Europe and the US on alert. In the second half of 2015 international financial markets should fluctuate significantly more than in the first six months of 2015. Many parallels arise with the crisis year of 2008. At that time, the stock markets massively collapsed in the second half of a year. Smartphones and tablets as well as TVs and other consumer electronics are supplied by the Korean company. In particular, the smartphone boom has given the Samsung a great name. The task is whether the Giant Group can also offer a lot to investors. Despite the tension around the Greek crisis, the mood in the Switzerland is positive. Swiss investors are really something special. This is certainly due to the specific situation with its own currency in the middle of Europe.
在这项研究中,我以日本为例,他们最初提高了债券利率。只有在日本央行采取行动后,利率才发生了转变,这实际上导致了日本的经济崩溃。国际货币基金组织(IMF)目前正在研究将人民币纳入IMF货币篮子的问题。到目前为止,只有欧元、美元、日元和英镑被代表。因此,中国将在未来的世界货币事务中发挥越来越大的作用。围绕希腊的闹剧确实接近尾声,但解决方案究竟会是什么样子还不清楚。基本上,它只能依靠某种妥协。这让欧洲和美国的主要证券交易所处于戒备状态。2015年下半年国际金融市场的波动幅度将明显大于2015年上半年。与2008年的危机有许多相似之处。当时,股市在下半年大规模崩盘。智能手机和平板电脑以及电视和其他消费电子产品都由这家韩国公司提供。特别是,智能手机的繁荣给三星带来了一个伟大的名字。现在的任务是,巨人集团是否也能给投资者带来很多好处。尽管围绕希腊危机的紧张气氛,瑞士的情绪是积极的。瑞士投资者真的很特别。这当然是由于欧洲中部本国货币的具体情况。
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引用次数: 0
Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks? 外汇干预能否遏制全球资本流动冲击带来的汇率压力?
Pub Date : 2015-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2688758
O. Blanchard, Gustavo Adler, Irineu de Carvalho Filho
Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, we look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows, and explore the cross country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, we find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows.
许多新兴市场经济体依靠外汇干预(FXI)来应对总资本流入。在本文中,我们研究了FXI是否已经成为抑制这些流入对汇率影响的有效工具。为了解决内生性问题,我们研究了不同国家对貌似外生的总流入的反应,并探讨了外国直接投资和汇率反应的跨国变化。与投资组合平衡通道一致,我们发现更大的FXI导致较少的汇率升值以响应总流入。
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引用次数: 134
期刊
PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (International) (Topic)
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