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Key factors for quantitative precipitation nowcasting using ground weather radar data based on deep learning 基于深度学习的地面气象雷达数据定量降水临近预报关键因素研究
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5895-2023
Daehyeon Han, Jungho Im, Yeji Shin, Juhyun Lee
Abstract. Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) can help to reduce the enormous socioeconomic damage caused by extreme weather. The QPN has been a challenging topic due to rapid atmospheric variability. Recent QPN studies have proposed data-driven models using deep learning (DL) and ground weather radar. Previous studies have primarily focused on developing DL models, but other factors for DL-QPN have not been thoroughly investigated. This study examined four critical factors in DL-QPN, focusing on their impact on forecasting performance. These factors are the deep learning model (U-Net, as well as a convolutional long short-term memory, or ConvLSTM), input past sequence length (1, 2, or 3 h), loss function (mean squared error, MSE, or balanced MSE, BMSE), and ensemble aggregation. A total of 24 schemes were designed to measure the effects of each factor using weather radar data from South Korea with a maximum lead time of 2 h. A long-term evaluation was conducted for the summers of 2020–2022 from an operational perspective, and a heavy rainfall event was analyzed to examine an extreme case. In both evaluations, U-Net outperformed ConvLSTM in overall accuracy metrics. For the critical success index (CSI), MSE loss yielded better results for both models in the weak intensity range (≤ 5 mm h−1), whereas BMSE loss was more effective for heavier precipitation. There was a small trend where a longer input time (3 h) gave better results in terms of MSE and BMSE, but this effect was less significant than other factors. The ensemble by averaging results of using MSE and BMSE losses provided balanced performance across all aspects, suggesting a potential strategy to improve skill scores when implemented with optimal weights for each member. All DL-QPN schemes exhibited problems with underestimation and overestimation when trained by MSE and BMSE losses, respectively. All DL models produced blurry results as the lead time increased, while the non-DL model retained detail in prediction. With a comprehensive comparison of these crucial factors, this study offers a modeling strategy for future DL-QPN work using weather radar data.
摘要定量降水临近预报(QPN)有助于减少极端天气造成的巨大社会经济损失。由于大气的快速变化,QPN一直是一个具有挑战性的课题。最近的QPN研究提出了使用深度学习(DL)和地面气象雷达的数据驱动模型。以往的研究主要集中在开发DL- qpn模型上,但DL- qpn的其他因素尚未得到深入研究。本研究考察了DL-QPN中的四个关键因素,重点研究了它们对预测性能的影响。这些因素是深度学习模型(U-Net,以及卷积长短期记忆,或ConvLSTM),输入过去的序列长度(1,2,3小时),损失函数(均方误差,MSE,或平衡MSE, BMSE)和集成聚合。利用韩国气象雷达数据,共设计了24个方案来测量每个因素的影响,最大提前时间为2小时。从业务角度对2020-2022年夏季进行了长期评估,并分析了一次强降雨事件以检查极端情况。在这两项评估中,U-Net在总体精度指标上优于ConvLSTM。对于临界成功指数(CSI),两种模式在弱强度范围内(≤5 mm h−1)均能获得较好的结果,而在较强降水条件下,BMSE损失更为有效。有一个小的趋势,即较长的输入时间(3小时)在MSE和BMSE方面的结果更好,但这种影响不如其他因素显著。通过平均使用MSE和BMSE损失的结果来集成,在所有方面提供了平衡的性能,这表明当为每个成员实现最佳权重时,可以提高技能分数的潜在策略。所有DL-QPN方案在分别用MSE和BMSE损失训练时都表现出低估和高估的问题。随着提前期的增加,所有深度学习模型的预测结果都很模糊,而非深度学习模型在预测中保留了细节。通过对这些关键因素的综合比较,本研究为未来使用气象雷达数据的DL-QPN工作提供了一种建模策略。
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引用次数: 0
SedTrace 1.0: a Julia-based framework for generating and running reactive-transport models of marine sediment diagenesis specializing in trace elements and isotopes SedTrace 1.0:一个基于julia的框架,用于生成和运行海洋沉积物成岩反应输运模型,专门研究微量元素和同位素
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5865-2023
Jianghui Du
Abstract. Trace elements and isotopes (TEIs) are important tools in studying ocean biogeochemistry. Understanding their modern ocean budgets and using their sedimentary records to reconstruct paleoceanographic conditions require a mechanistic understanding of the diagenesis of TEIs, yet the lack of appropriate modeling tools has limited our ability to perform such research. Here I introduce SedTrace, a modeling framework that can be used to generate reactive-transport code for modeling marine sediment diagenesis and assist model simulation using advanced numerical tools in Julia. SedTrace enables mechanistic TEI modeling by providing flexible tools for pH and speciation modeling, which are essential in studying TEI diagenesis. SedTrace is designed to solve one particular challenge facing users of diagenetic models: existing models are usually case-specific and not easily adaptable for new problems such that the user has to choose between modifying published code and writing their own code, both of which demand strong coding skills. To lower this barrier, SedTrace can generate diagenetic models only requiring the user to supply Excel spreadsheets containing necessary model information. The resulting code is clearly structured and readable, and it is integrated with Julia's differential equation solving ecosystems, utilizing tools such as automatic differentiation, sparse numerical methods, Newton–Krylov solvers and preconditioners. This allows efficient solution of large systems of stiff diagenetic equations. I demonstrate the capacity of SedTrace using case studies of modeling the diagenesis of pH as well as radiogenic and stable isotopes of TEIs.
摘要微量元素和同位素(TEIs)是研究海洋生物地球化学的重要工具。了解它们的现代海洋收支,并利用它们的沉积记录来重建古海洋条件,需要对tei的成岩作用有一个机械的了解,然而缺乏适当的建模工具限制了我们进行此类研究的能力。在这里,我介绍SedTrace,这是一个建模框架,可用于生成反应输运代码,用于模拟海洋沉积物成岩作用,并协助使用Julia中的高级数值工具进行模型模拟。SedTrace通过提供灵活的pH值和物种形成建模工具,实现TEI的机理建模,这对于研究TEI成岩作用至关重要。SedTrace的设计是为了解决成岩模型用户面临的一个特殊挑战:现有模型通常是针对具体情况的,不容易适应新问题,比如用户必须在修改已发布的代码和编写自己的代码之间做出选择,这两种情况都需要很强的编码技能。为了降低这个障碍,SedTrace可以生成成岩模型,只需要用户提供包含必要模型信息的Excel电子表格。生成的代码结构清晰易读,它与Julia的微分方程求解生态系统集成,利用自动微分、稀疏数值方法、牛顿-克雷洛夫解算器和预处理器等工具。这使得大型刚性成岩方程组的有效解成为可能。我通过模拟pH成岩作用以及TEIs的放射性成因和稳定同位素的案例研究来证明SedTrace的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble of optimised machine learning algorithms for predicting surface soil moisture content at a global scale 在全球范围内预测地表土壤水分含量的优化机器学习算法集合
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5825-2023
Qianqian Han, Yijian Zeng, Lijie Zhang, Calimanut-Ionut Cira, Egor Prikaziuk, Ting Duan, Chao Wang, Brigitta Szabó, Salvatore Manfreda, Ruodan Zhuang, Bob Su
Abstract. Accurate information on surface soil moisture (SSM) content at a global scale under different climatic conditions is important for hydrological and climatological applications. Machine-learning-based systematic integration of in situ hydrological measurements, complex environmental and climate data, and satellite observation facilitate the generation of reliable data products to monitor and analyse the exchange of water, energy, and carbon in the Earth system at a proper space–time resolution. This study investigates the estimation of daily SSM using 8 optimised machine learning (ML) algorithms and 10 ensemble models (constructed via model bootstrap aggregating techniques and five-fold cross-validation). The algorithmic implementations were trained and tested using International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) data collected from 1722 stations distributed across the world. The result showed that the K-neighbours Regressor (KNR) had the lowest root-mean-square error (0.0379 cm3 cm−3) on the “test_random” set (for testing the performance of randomly split data during training), the Random Forest Regressor (RFR) had the lowest RMSE (0.0599 cm3 cm−3) on the “test_temporal” set (for testing the performance on the period that was not used in training), and AdaBoost (AB) had the lowest RMSE (0.0786 cm3 cm−3) on the “test_independent-stations” set (for testing the performance on the stations that were not used in training). Independent evaluation on novel stations across different climate zones was conducted. For the optimised ML algorithms, the median RMSE values were below 0.1 cm3 cm−3. GradientBoosting (GB), Multi-layer Perceptron Regressor (MLPR), Stochastic Gradient Descent Regressor (SGDR), and RFR achieved a median r score of 0.6 in 12, 11, 9, and 9 climate zones, respectively, out of 15 climate zones. The performance of ensemble models improved significantly, with the median RMSE value below 0.075 cm3 cm−3 for all climate zones. All voting regressors achieved r scores of above 0.6 in 13 climate zones; BSh (hot semi-arid climate) and BWh (hot desert climate) were the exceptions because of the sparse distribution of training stations. The metric evaluation showed that ensemble models can improve the performance of single ML algorithms and achieve more stable results. Based on the results computed for three different test sets, the ensemble model with KNR, RFR and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XB) performed the best. Overall, our investigation shows that ensemble machine learning algorithms have a greater capability with respect to predicting SSM compared with the optimised or base ML algorithms; this indicates their huge potential applicability in estimating water cycle budgets, managing irrigation, and predicting crop yields.
摘要在不同气候条件下,准确的全球尺度土壤表层水分信息对水文和气候学应用具有重要意义。基于机器学习的现场水文测量、复杂的环境和气候数据以及卫星观测的系统集成,有助于生成可靠的数据产品,以适当的时空分辨率监测和分析地球系统中水、能量和碳的交换。本研究使用8种优化的机器学习(ML)算法和10个集成模型(通过模型自举聚合技术和五倍交叉验证构建)来研究每日SSM的估计。使用分布在世界各地的1722个站点收集的国际土壤湿度网络(ISMN)数据对算法实施进行了培训和测试。结果表明,k -邻居回归器(KNR)在“test_random”集(用于测试训练期间随机分割数据的性能)上具有最低的均方根误差(0.0379 cm3 cm - 3),随机森林回归器(RFR)在“test_temporal”集(用于测试未用于训练的时间段的性能)上具有最低的RMSE (0.0599 cm3 cm - 3)。AdaBoost (AB)在“test_independence -stations”集(用于测试未用于训练的工作站的性能)上的RMSE最低(0.0786 cm3 cm - 3)。对不同气候带的新站进行了独立评价。对于优化的ML算法,中位数RMSE值低于0.1 cm3 cm - 3。在15个气候带中,梯度增强(GB)、多层感知器回归(MLPR)、随机梯度下降回归(SGDR)和RFR分别在12个、11个、9个和9个气候带中值r值为0.6。集合模式的性能显著提高,所有气候带的RMSE中值均低于0.075 cm3 cm - 3。13个气候带的投票回归因子r值均在0.6以上;由于训练站分布稀疏,BSh(炎热半干旱气候)和BWh(炎热沙漠气候)是例外。度量评价表明,集成模型可以提高单一机器学习算法的性能,并获得更稳定的结果。基于三个不同测试集的计算结果,具有KNR、RFR和极端梯度增强(Extreme Gradient Boosting, XB)的集成模型表现最好。总体而言,我们的研究表明,与优化或基本ML算法相比,集成机器学习算法在预测SSM方面具有更大的能力;这表明它们在估算水循环预算、管理灌溉和预测作物产量方面具有巨大的潜在适用性。
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引用次数: 1
A new model for supraglacial hydrology evolution and drainage for the Greenland Ice Sheet (SHED v1.0) 格陵兰冰盖冰上水文演化与排水新模式(SHED v1.0)
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, Xavier Fettweis
Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass as the climate warms through both increased meltwater runoff and ice discharge at marine-terminating sectors. At the ice sheet surface, meltwater runoff forms a dynamic supraglacial hydrological system which includes stream and river networks and large supraglacial lakes (SGLs). Streams and rivers can route water into crevasses or into supraglacial lakes with crevasses underneath, both of which can then hydrofracture to the ice sheet base, providing a mechanism for the surface meltwater to access the bed. Understanding where, when, and how much meltwater is transferred to the bed is important because variability in meltwater supply to the bed can increase ice flow speeds, potentially impacting the hypsometry of the ice sheet in grounded sectors, and iceberg discharge to the ocean. Here we present a new, physically based, supraglacial hydrology model for the GrIS that is able to simulate (a) surface meltwater routing and SGL filling; (b) rapid meltwater drainage to the ice sheet bed via the hydrofracture of surface crevasses both in and outside of SGLs; (c) slow SGL drainage via overflow in supraglacial meltwater channels; and, by offline coupling with a second model, (d) the freezing and unfreezing of SGLs from autumn to spring. We call the model the Supraglacial Hydrology Evolution and Drainage (or SHED) model. We apply the model to three study regions in southwest Greenland between 2015 and 2019 (inclusive) and evaluate its performance with respect to observed supraglacial lake extents and proglacial discharge measurements. We show that the model reproduces 80 % of observed lake locations and provides good agreement with observations in terms of the temporal evolution of lake extent. Modelled moulin density values are in keeping with those previously published, and seasonal and inter-annual variability in proglacial discharge agrees well with that which is observed, though the observations lag the model by a few days since they include transit time through the subglacial system, while the model does not. Our simulations suggest that lake drainage behaviours may be more complex than traditional models suggest, with lakes in our model draining through a combination of both overflow and hydrofracture and with some lakes draining only partially and then refreezing. This suggests that, in order to simulate the evolution of Greenland's surface hydrological system with fidelity, a model that includes all of these processes needs to be used. In future work, we will couple our model to a subglacial model and an ice flow model and thus use our estimates of where, when, and how much meltwater gets to the bed to understand the consequences for ice flow.
摘要随着气候变暖,格陵兰冰原(GrIS)的质量正在减少,原因是融水径流和海洋终端部分的冰排放增加。在冰盖表面,融水径流形成了一个动态的冰上水文系统,包括溪流和河网以及大型冰上湖(SGLs)。小溪和河流可以将水引入裂缝,或者进入下面有裂缝的冰川上湖泊,这两种情况都可以通过水力破裂到达冰盖底部,为表面融水进入河床提供了一种机制。了解何时、何地以及有多少融水被转移到床上是很重要的,因为床上融水供应的变化会增加冰流速度,潜在地影响到地面部分冰盖的温度降低,以及冰山向海洋的排放。在这里,我们提出了一个新的、基于物理的冰川上水文模型,该模型能够模拟:(a)地表融水路线和SGL填充;(b)通过SGLs内外表面裂缝的水力破裂,融化水迅速向冰盖床排放;(c)冰川上融水通道溢流缓慢排出SGL;通过与第二个模型的离线耦合,(d)秋季到春季SGLs的冻结和解冻。我们称该模型为冰川上水文演化与排水(SHED)模型。我们将该模型应用于2015年至2019年(含)格陵兰西南部的三个研究区域,并根据观测到的冰上湖泊范围和冰前流量测量值评估其性能。我们表明,该模式再现了80%的观测湖泊位置,并在湖泊范围的时间演变方面与观测结果有很好的一致性。模拟的moulin密度值与以前发表的值一致,前冰期流量的季节和年际变化与观测值非常吻合,尽管观测值比模型晚了几天,因为它们包括通过冰下系统的传输时间,而模型没有。我们的模拟表明,湖泊排水行为可能比传统模型所显示的更为复杂,我们模型中的湖泊通过溢流和水力压裂的组合排水,有些湖泊仅部分排水,然后再冻结。这表明,为了逼真地模拟格陵兰地表水文系统的演变,需要使用一个包括所有这些过程的模型。在未来的工作中,我们将把我们的模型与冰下模型和冰流模型结合起来,从而使用我们对何时、何地以及有多少融水到达床的估计来了解冰流的后果。
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引用次数: 0
Representing the impact of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in a hydrodynamic model (COAWST_rh v1.0): the importance of three-dimensional root system structures 在水动力模型(COAWST_rh v1.0)中代表红根草对水流的影响:根系三维结构的重要性
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5847-2023
Masaya Yoshikai, Takashi Nakamura, Eugene C. Herrera, Rempei Suwa, Rene Rollon, Raghab Ray, Keita Furukawa, Kazuo Nadaoka
Abstract. Coastal wetland vegetation modulates water flow by exerting drag, which has important implications for sediment transport and geomorphic dynamics. This vegetation effect on flow is commonly represented in hydrodynamic models by approximating the vegetation as an array of vertical cylinders or increased bed roughness. However, this simple approximation may not be valid in the case of Rhizophora mangroves that have complicated three-dimensional root structures. Here, we present a new model to represent the impact of Rhizophora mangroves on flow in hydrodynamic models. The model explicitly accounts for the effects of the three-dimensional root structures on mean flow and turbulence as well as for the effects of two different length scales of vegetation-generated turbulence characterized by stem diameter and root diameter. The model employs an empirical model for the Rhizophora root structures that can be applied using basic vegetation parameters (mean stem diameter and tree density) without rigorous measurements of the root structures. We tested the model against the flows measured by previous studies in a model mangrove forest in the laboratory and an actual mangrove forest in the field, respectively. We show that, compared with the conventional approximation using an array of cylinders or increased bed roughness, the new model significantly improves the predictability of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, and bed shear stress in Rhizophora mangrove forests. Overall, the presented new model offers a more realistic but feasible framework for simulating flows in Rhizophora mangrove forests with complex root structures using hydrodynamic models.
摘要滨海湿地植被通过施加阻力调节水流,对泥沙输运和地貌动力学具有重要意义。这种植被对流动的影响通常在水动力模型中通过将植被近似为一组垂直圆柱体或增加的河床粗糙度来表示。然而,这种简单的近似可能不适用于具有复杂三维根结构的红树根。在此,我们提出了一个新的水动力模型来表示根藻对水流的影响。该模型明确考虑了三维根系结构对平均流量和湍流度的影响,以及以茎径和根径为特征的两种不同长度尺度植被产生的湍流度的影响。该模型采用根茎根结构的经验模型,该模型可以在不需要对根茎根结构进行严格测量的情况下,使用基本植被参数(平均茎粗和树密度)进行应用。我们分别在实验室的模型红树林和野外的实际红树林中测试了该模型与先前研究中测量的流量。研究表明,与使用圆柱体阵列或增加床层粗糙度的传统近似相比,新模型显著提高了根藻红树林速度、湍流动能和床层剪切应力的可预测性。总体而言,该模型为利用水动力模型模拟具有复杂根结构的根属红树林的流动提供了一个更为现实可行的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Improving nitrogen cycling in a land surface model (CLM5) to quantify soil N2O, NO, and NH3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands 在陆地表面模型(CLM5)中改善氮循环,量化农田增强岩石风化导致的土壤N2O、NO和NH3排放
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023
Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla T. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, David J. Beerling
Abstract. Surficial enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy that involves applying crushed silicate rock (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended biogeochemical interactions with the nitrogen cycle may arise through ERW increasing soil pH as basalt grains undergo dissolution that may reinforce, counteract, or even offset the climate benefits from carbon sequestration. Increases in soil pH could drive changes in the soil emissions of key non-CO2 greenhouse gases, e.g., nitrous oxide (N2O), and trace gases, e.g., nitric oxide (NO) and ammonia (NH3), that affect air quality and crop and human health. We present the development and implementation of a new improved nitrogen cycling scheme for the Community Land Model v5 (CLM5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model, allowing evaluation of ERW effects on soil gas emissions. We base the new parameterizations on datasets derived from soil pH responses of N2O, NO, and NH3 in ERW field trial and mesocosm experiments with crushed basalt. These new capabilities involve the direct implementation of routines within the CLM5 N cycle framework, along with asynchronous coupling of soil pH changes estimated through an ERW model. We successfully validated simulated “control” (i.e., no ERW) seasonal cycles of soil N2O, NO, and NH3 emissions against a wide range of global emission inventories. We benchmark simulated mitigation of soil N2O fluxes in response to ERW against a subset of data from ERW field trials in the US Corn Belt. Using the new scheme, we provide a specific example of the effect of large-scale ERW deployment with croplands on soil nitrogen fluxes across five key regions with high potential for CDR with ERW (North America, Brazil, Europe, India, and China). Across these regions, ERW implementation led to marked reductions in N2O and NO (both 18 %), with moderate increases in NH3 (2 %). While further developments are still required in our implementations when additional ERW data become available, our improved N cycle scheme within CLM5 has utility for investigating the potential of ERW point-source and regional effects of soil N2O, NO, and NH3 fluxes in response to current and future climates. This framework also provides the basis for assessing the implications of ERW for air quality given the role of NO in tropospheric ozone formation, as well as both NO and NH3 in inorganic aerosol formation.
摘要表面增强岩石风化(ERW)是一种基于陆地的二氧化碳去除(CDR)策略,涉及将破碎的硅酸盐岩石(例如玄武岩)应用于农业土壤。然而,由于玄武岩颗粒的溶解,可能会加强、抵消甚至抵消碳封存带来的气候效益,因此,通过ERW增加土壤pH值,可能会出现意想不到的生物地球化学与氮循环的相互作用。土壤pH值的增加可能会导致土壤中主要非二氧化碳温室气体(如氧化亚氮(N2O))和微量气体(如氧化氮(NO)和氨(NH3))排放的变化,从而影响空气质量、作物和人类健康。我们为社区土地模型v5 (CLM5)(社区地球系统模型的土地组成部分)开发和实施了一个新的改进的氮循环方案,允许评估ERW对土壤气体排放的影响。我们基于在ERW现场试验和破碎玄武岩中观实验中获得的N2O、NO和NH3土壤pH值响应数据集进行了新的参数化。这些新功能包括直接实施CLM5 N循环框架内的例程,以及通过ERW模型估计的土壤pH变化的异步耦合。我们成功地验证了模拟的“控制”(即无ERW)土壤N2O、no和NH3排放的季节循环,以对照广泛的全球排放清单。我们以美国玉米带ERW田间试验的数据子集为基准,模拟了土壤N2O通量对ERW响应的缓解。利用新方案,我们提供了一个具体的例子,说明在农田大规模部署战争遗留爆炸物对五个具有高潜力的关键地区(北美、巴西、欧洲、印度和中国)土壤氮通量的影响。在这些地区,ERW的实施导致N2O和NO的显著减少(均为18%),NH3的适度增加(2%)。当获得更多的ERW数据时,我们的实施还需要进一步的发展,但我们在CLM5中改进的N循环方案对于研究ERW点源的潜力以及响应当前和未来气候的土壤N2O、NO和NH3通量的区域影响具有实用价值。考虑到NO在对流层臭氧形成中的作用,以及NO和NH3在无机气溶胶形成中的作用,该框架也为评估战争遗留物质对空气质量的影响提供了基础。
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引用次数: 2
Introducing a new floodplain scheme in ORCHIDEE (version 7885): validation and evaluation over the Pantanal wetlands 在ORCHIDEE(7885版)中介绍了一个新的洪泛平原方案:对潘塔纳尔湿地的验证和评价
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5755-2023
Anthony Schrapffer, Jan Polcher, Anna Sörensson, Lluís Fita
Abstract. Adapting and improving the hydrological processes in land surface models are crucial given the increase in the resolution of the climate models to correctly represent the hydrological cycle. The present paper introduces a floodplain scheme adapted to the higher-resolution river routing of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model. The scheme is based on a sub-tile parameterisation of the hydrological units – a hydrological transfer unit (HTU) concept – based on high-resolution hydrologically coherent digital elevation models, which can be used for all types of resolutions and projections. The floodplain scheme was developed and evaluated for different atmospheric forcings and resolutions (0.5∘ and 25 km) over one of the world's largest floodplains: the Pantanal, located in central South America. The floodplain scheme is validated based on the river discharge at the outflow of the Pantanal which represents the hydrological cycle over the basin, the temporal evolution of the water mass over the region assessed by the anomaly of total water storage in the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the temporal evaluation of the flooded areas compared to the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites version 2 (GIEMS-2) dataset. The hydrological cycle is satisfactorily simulated; however, the base flow may be underestimated. The temporal evolution of the flooded area is coherent with the observations, although the size of the area is underestimated in comparison to GIEMS-2. The presence of floodplains increases the soil moisture up to 50 % and decreases average temperature by 3 ∘C and by 6 ∘C during the dry season. The higher soil moisture increases the vegetation density, and, along with the presence of open-water surfaces due to the floodplains, it affects the surface energy budget by increasing the latent flux at the expense of the sensible flux. This is linked to the increase in the evapotranspiration related to the increased water availability. The effect of the floodplain scheme on the land surface conditions highlights that coupled simulations using the floodplain scheme may influence local and regional precipitation and regional circulation.
摘要鉴于气候模式分辨率的提高,适应和改进陆地表面模式中的水文过程是至关重要的,以正确地表示水文循环。本文介绍了一种适用于动态生态系统中组织碳和水文(ORCHIDEE)陆地表面模型的高分辨率河流路线的洪泛平原方案。该方案基于水文单元的子参数化——水文转移单元(HTU)概念——基于高分辨率水文相干数字高程模型,可用于所有类型的分辨率和预测。洪泛区方案是根据世界上最大的洪泛区之一:位于南美洲中部的潘塔纳尔平原的不同大气强迫和分辨率(0.5°和25公里)制定和评估的。基于代表流域水循环的潘塔纳尔河出水口流量、重力恢复与气候实验(GRACE)总储水量异常评估的区域水质量的时间演变,以及与多卫星版本2 (GIEMS-2)数据集的全球淹没范围的时间评估,对洪泛平原方案进行了验证。水文循环模拟结果令人满意;然而,基本流量可能被低估了。洪水地区的时间演变与观测结果一致,尽管与GIEMS-2相比,该地区的规模被低估了。泛滥平原的存在使土壤湿度增加了50%,使旱季的平均气温下降了3°C和6°C。较高的土壤湿度增加了植被密度,并且由于洪泛平原的存在,开放水面的存在,它通过以牺牲感通量为代价增加潜在通量来影响地表能量收支。这与与水分供应增加有关的蒸散量增加有关。洪泛区方案对地表条件的影响突出表明,洪泛区方案的耦合模拟可能影响局地和区域降水和区域环流。
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引用次数: 0
QES-Plume v1.0: a Lagrangian dispersion model QES-Plume v1.0:拉格朗日色散模型
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5729-2023
Fabien Margairaz, Balwinder Singh, Jeremy A. Gibbs, Loren Atwood, Eric R. Pardyjak, Rob Stoll
Abstract. Low-cost simulations providing accurate predictions of transport of airborne material in urban areas, vegetative canopies, and complex terrain are demanding because of the small-scale heterogeneity of the features influencing the mean flow and turbulence fields. Common models used to predict turbulent transport of passive scalars are based on the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model. The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost framework developed to provide high-resolution wind and concentration fields in a variety of complex atmospheric-boundary-layer environments. Part of the framework, QES-Plume, is a Lagrangian dispersion code that uses a time-implicit integration scheme to solve the generalized Langevin equations which require mean flow and turbulence fields. Here, QES-Plume is driven by QES-Winds, a 3D fast-response model that computes mass-consistent wind fields around buildings, vegetation, and hills using empirical parameterizations, and QES-Turb, a local-mixing-length turbulence model. In this paper, the particle dispersion model is presented and validated against analytical solutions to examine QES-Plume’s performance under idealized conditions. In particular, QES-Plume is evaluated against a classical Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in uniform flow, the Lagrangian scaling of dispersion in isotropic turbulence, and a non-Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in a power-law boundary-layer flow. In these cases, QES-Plume yields a maximum relative error below 6 % when compared with analytical solutions. In addition, the model is tested against wind-tunnel data for a uniform array of cubical buildings. QES-Plume exhibits good agreement with the experiment with 99 % of matched zeros and 59 % of the predicted concentrations falling within a factor of 2 of the experimental concentrations. Furthermore, results also emphasize the importance of using high-quality turbulence models for particle dispersion in complex environments. Finally, QES-Plume demonstrates excellent computational performance.
摘要由于影响平均气流和湍流场的特征具有小规模的异质性,因此需要低成本的模拟来准确预测城市地区、植被冠层和复杂地形中空气物质的运输。用于预测被动标量湍流输运的常用模型是基于拉格朗日随机色散模型的。快速环境模拟(QES)工具是一种低计算成本的框架,用于在各种复杂的大气边界层环境中提供高分辨率的风和浓度场。该框架的一部分,QES-Plume,是一个拉格朗日色散代码,它使用时间隐式积分格式来求解需要平均流场和湍流场的广义朗之万方程。在这里,QES-Plume由QES-Winds和QES-Turb驱动,QES-Winds是一个3D快速响应模型,使用经验参数化计算建筑物、植被和山丘周围的质量一致风场,QES-Turb是一个局部混合长度湍流模型。本文提出了粒子色散模型,并针对解析解进行了验证,以检验理想条件下QES-Plume的性能。特别地,QES-Plume是针对均匀流动中升高的连续点源释放的经典高斯羽流模型、各向同性湍流中色散的拉格朗日标度模型和幂律边界层流动中升高的连续点源释放的非高斯羽流模型进行评估的。在这些情况下,与分析方案相比,QES-Plume产生的最大相对误差低于6%。此外,该模型还针对一组统一的立方体建筑的风洞数据进行了测试。QES-Plume与实验结果吻合良好,99%的匹配零和59%的预测浓度落在实验浓度的2因子范围内。此外,结果还强调了在复杂环境中使用高质量湍流模型来研究粒子分散的重要性。最后,验证了QES-Plume的计算性能。
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引用次数: 0
URock 2023a: an open-source GIS-based wind model for complex urban settings URock 2023a:基于开源gis的复杂城市风模型
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5703-2023
Jérémy Bernard, Fredrik Lindberg, Sandro Oswald
Abstract. URock 2023a is an open-source diagnostic model dedicated to wind field calculation in urban settings. It is based on a quick method initially proposed by Röckle (1990) and already implemented in the proprietary software QUIC-URB. First, the model method is described as well as its implementation in the free and open-source geographic information system called QGIS. Then it is evaluated against wind tunnel measurements and QUIC-URB simulations for four different building layouts plus one case with an isolated tree. The correlation between URock and QUIC-URB is high, and URock reproduces the spatial variation of the wind speed observed in the wind tunnel experiments quite well, even in complex settings. However, sources of improvements, which are applicable for both URock and QUIC-URB, are highlighted. URock and QUIC-URB overestimate the wind speed downstream of the upwind edges of wide buildings and also downstream of isolated tree crowns. URock 2023a is available via the Urban Multiscale Environment Predictor (UMEP), a city-based climate service tool designed for researchers and service providers presented as a plug-in for QGIS. The model, data, and scripts used to write this paper can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7681245 (Bernard, 2023).
摘要URock 2023a是一个开源的诊断模型,专门用于城市环境下的风场计算。它基于Röckle(1990)最初提出的一种快速方法,并已在专有软件QUIC-URB中实现。首先,描述了模型方法及其在免费开源地理信息系统QGIS中的实现。然后通过风洞测量和QUIC-URB模拟对四种不同的建筑布局以及一种隔离树的情况进行了评估。URock与QUIC-URB的相关性较高,即使在复杂的环境下,URock也能很好地再现风洞实验中观测到的风速的空间变化。但是,强调了适用于URock和QUIC-URB的改进来源。URock和QUIC-URB高估了大型建筑逆风边缘下游的风速,也高估了孤立树冠下游的风速。URock 2023a可通过城市多尺度环境预测器(UMEP)获得,UMEP是一个基于城市的气候服务工具,为研究人员和服务提供商设计,作为QGIS的插件。用于撰写本文的模型,数据和脚本可以在https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7681245 (Bernard, 2023)上自由访问。
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引用次数: 1
Dynamically weighted ensemble of geoscientific models via automated machine-learning-based classification 基于自动机器学习分类的地球科学模型动态加权集成
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-5685-2023
Hao Chen, Tiejun Wang, Yonggen Zhang, Yun Bai, Xi Chen
Abstract. Despite recent developments in geoscientific (e.g., physics- or data-driven) models, effectively assembling multiple models for approaching a benchmark solution remains challenging in many sub-disciplines of geoscientific fields. Here, we proposed an automated machine-learning-assisted ensemble framework (AutoML-Ens) that attempts to resolve this challenge. Details of the methodology and workflow of AutoML-Ens were provided, and a prototype model was realized with the key strategy of mapping between the probabilities derived from the machine learning classifier and the dynamic weights assigned to the candidate ensemble members. Based on the newly proposed framework, its applications for two real-world examples (i.e., mapping global soil water retention parameters and estimating remotely sensed cropland evapotranspiration) were investigated and discussed. Results showed that compared to conventional ensemble approaches, AutoML-Ens was superior across the datasets (the training, testing, and overall datasets) and environmental gradients with improved performance metrics (e.g., coefficient of determination, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and root-mean-squared error). The better performance suggested the great potential of AutoML-Ens for improving quantification and reducing uncertainty in estimates due to its two unique features, i.e., assigning dynamic weights for candidate models and taking full advantage of AutoML-assisted workflow. In addition to the representative results, we also discussed the interpretational aspects of the used framework and its possible extensions. More importantly, we emphasized the benefits of combining data-driven approaches with physics constraints for geoscientific model ensemble problems with high dimensionality in space and nonlinear behaviors in nature.
摘要尽管地球科学(例如,物理或数据驱动)模型最近有所发展,但在地球科学领域的许多分支学科中,有效地组装多个模型以接近基准解决方案仍然具有挑战性。在这里,我们提出了一个自动机器学习辅助集成框架(AutoML-Ens),试图解决这一挑战。详细介绍了AutoML-Ens的方法和工作流程,并利用机器学习分类器得到的概率与分配给候选集成成员的动态权重之间的映射这一关键策略实现了原型模型。在此基础上,探讨了该框架在全球土壤保水参数制图和遥感农田蒸散估算两个实例中的应用。结果表明,与传统的集成方法相比,AutoML-Ens在数据集(训练、测试和整体数据集)和环境梯度上都具有优势,性能指标(如决定系数、克林-古普塔效率和均方根误差)也有所改善。由于AutoML-Ens具有两个独特的特性,即为候选模型分配动态权重和充分利用automl辅助工作流,因此更好的性能表明AutoML-Ens在改进量化和减少估计中的不确定性方面具有巨大的潜力。除了具有代表性的结果外,我们还讨论了所使用框架的解释方面及其可能的扩展。更重要的是,我们强调了将数据驱动方法与物理约束结合起来解决具有高维空间和非线性行为的地球科学模型集成问题的好处。
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引用次数: 0
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