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The capabilities of the adjoint of GEOS-Chem model to support HEMCO emission inventories and MERRA-2 meteorological data GEOS-Chem模型支持HEMCO排放清单和MERRA-2气象数据的能力
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6377-2023
Zhaojun Tang, Zhe Jiang, Jiaqi Chen, Panpan Yang, Yanan Shen
Abstract. The adjoint of the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System with Chemistry) model has been widely used to constrain the sources of atmospheric compositions. Here, we designed a new framework to facilitate emission inventory updates in the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model. The major advantage of this new framework is good readability and extensibility, which allows us to support Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) emission inventories conveniently and to easily add more emission inventories following future updates in GEOS-Chem forward simulations. Furthermore, we developed new modules to support MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) meteorological data, which allows us to perform long-term analyses with consistent meteorological data for the period 1979–present. The performances of the developed capabilities were evaluated with the following steps: (1) diagnostic outputs of carbon monoxide (CO) sources and sinks to ensure the correct reading and use of emission inventories, (2) forward simulations to compare the modeled surface and column CO concentrations among various model versions, (3) backward simulations to compare adjoint gradients of global CO concentrations to CO emissions with finite-difference gradients, and (4) observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the model performance in 4D variational (4D-Var) assimilations. Finally, an example application of 4D-Var assimilation was presented to constrain anthropogenic CO emissions in 2015 by assimilating Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO observations. The capabilities developed in this work are important for better applications of the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model in the future. These capabilities will be submitted to the standard GEOS-Chem adjoint code base for better development of the community of the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model.
摘要戈达德地球化学观测系统(Goddard Earth Observing System with Chemistry, GEOS-Chem)模式的伴随模式已被广泛用于大气成分来源的约束。在此,我们设计了一个新的框架,以促进GEOS-Chem模型伴随的排放清单更新。这个新框架的主要优点是良好的可读性和可扩展性,这使我们能够方便地支持协调排放组件(HEMCO)排放清单,并在GEOS-Chem正向模拟的未来更新后轻松添加更多的排放清单。此外,我们开发了新的模块来支持MERRA-2(现代研究与应用回顾性分析,第2版)气象数据,这使我们能够使用1979年至今的一致气象数据进行长期分析。已开发能力的性能按以下步骤进行评估:(1)一氧化碳(CO)源和汇的诊断输出,以确保正确读取和使用排放清单;(2)正演模拟,以比较不同模型版本中模拟的地表和柱状CO浓度;(3)反向模拟,以有限差分梯度比较全球CO浓度与CO排放的伴随梯度。(4)观测系统模拟实验(OSSEs),评估模型在4D变分同化(4D- var)中的性能。最后,通过同化对流层污染测量(MOPITT) CO观测数据,给出了利用4D-Var同化限制2015年人为CO排放的实例。在这项工作中开发的功能对于将来更好地应用GEOS-Chem模型的伴随体非常重要。这些功能将提交给标准的GEOS-Chem伴随代码库,以便更好地开发GEOS-Chem模型的伴随社区。
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引用次数: 0
Rapid O3 assimilations – Part 1: Background and local contributions to tropospheric O3 changes in China in 2015–2020 O3的快速同化——第1部分:2015-2020年中国对流层O3变化的背景和局部贡献
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6337-2023
Rui Zhu, Zhaojun Tang, Xiaokang Chen, Xiong Liu, Zhe Jiang
Abstract. A single ozone (O3) tracer mode was developed in this work to build the capability of the Goddard Earth Observing System model with Chemistry (GEOS-Chem) for rapid O3 simulation. The single O3 tracer simulation demonstrates consistency with the GEOS-Chem full chemistry simulation, with dramatic reductions in computational costs of approximately 91 %–94 %. The single O3 tracer simulation was combined with surface and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) O3 observations to investigate the changes in tropospheric O3 over eastern China in 2015–2020. The assimilated O3 concentrations demonstrate good agreement with O3 observations because surface O3 concentrations are 43.2, 41.8, and 42.1 ppb and tropospheric O3 columns are 37.1, 37.9, and 38.0 DU in the simulations, assimilations, and observations, respectively. The assimilations indicate rapid rises in surface O3 concentrations by 1.60 (spring), 1.16 (summer), 1.47 (autumn), and 0.80 ppb yr−1 (winter) over eastern China in 2015–2020, and the increasing trends are underestimated by the a priori simulations. More attention is suggested to the rapid increases in the O3 pollution in spring and autumn. We find stronger rises in tropospheric O3 columns over highly polluted areas due to larger local contributions, for example, 0.12 DU yr−1 (North China Plain) in contrast to −0.29 (Sichuan Basin) and −0.25 DU yr−1 (southern China). Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated noticeable contributions of the interannual variability in background O3 to the trends in surface O3 (particularly in the summer) and tropospheric O3 columns over eastern China in 2015–2020. This work highlights the importance of rapid simulations and assimilations to extend and interpret atmospheric O3 observations.
摘要为了建立戈达德地球观测系统化学模型(GEOS-Chem)快速模拟臭氧的能力,建立了单一臭氧示踪模型。单一O3示踪剂模拟与GEOS-Chem全化学模拟结果一致,计算成本大幅降低约91% - 94%。利用单示踪剂模拟与地面臭氧监测仪器(OMI) O3观测相结合,研究了2015-2020年中国东部对流层O3的变化。在模拟、同化和观测中,地表O3浓度分别为43.2、41.8和42.1 ppb,对流层O3柱浓度分别为37.1、37.9和38.0 DU,与O3观测值吻合良好。同化结果表明,2015-2020年中国东部地区地表O3浓度快速上升1.60(春季)、1.16(夏季)、1.47(秋季)和0.80 ppb yr - 1(冬季),先验模拟低估了上升趋势。春季和秋季臭氧污染的快速增加应引起重视。我们发现,在高污染地区,由于更大的局部贡献,对流层O3柱的上升更强,例如,华北平原为0.12 DU yr - 1,而四川盆地为- 0.29 DU yr - 1,华南地区为- 0.25 DU yr - 1。此外,我们的分析表明,背景O3的年际变化对2015-2020年中国东部地区地面O3(特别是夏季)和对流层O3柱的趋势有显著贡献。这项工作强调了快速模拟和同化对扩展和解释大气O3观测的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observations 地球系统模型气溶胶-云诊断(ESMAC diag)包,版本2:评估气溶胶,云,和气溶胶-云的相互作用,通过实地活动和长期观测
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6355-2023
Shuaiqi Tang, Adam C. Varble, Jerome D. Fast, Kai Zhang, Peng Wu, Xiquan Dong, Fan Mei, Mikhail Pekour, Joseph C. Hardin, Po-Lun Ma
Abstract. Poor representations of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) in Earth system models (ESMs) have long been the largest uncertainties in predicting global climate change. Huge efforts have been made to improve the representation of these processes in ESMs, and the key to these efforts is the evaluation of ESM simulations with observations. Most well-established ESM diagnostics packages focus on the climatological features; however, they lack process-level understanding and representations of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. In this study, we developed the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs simulated the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). This paper documents its version 2 functionality (ESMAC Diags v2), which has substantial updates compared with version 1 (Tang et al., 2022a). The simulated aerosol and cloud properties have been extensively compared with in situ and remote-sensing measurements from aircraft, ship, surface, and satellite platforms in ESMAC Diags v2. It currently includes six field campaigns and two permanent sites covering four geographical regions: the eastern North Atlantic, the central US, the northeastern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility and other agencies. ESMAC Diags v2 generates various types of single-variable and multivariable diagnostics, including percentiles, histograms, joint histograms, and heatmaps, to evaluate the model representation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. Select examples highlighting the capabilities of ESMAC Diags are shown using E3SM version 2 (E3SMv2). In general, E3SMv2 can reasonably reproduce many observed aerosol and cloud properties, with biases in some variables such as aerosol particle and cloud droplet sizes and number concentrations. The coupling of aerosol and cloud number concentrations may be too strong in E3SMv2, possibly indicating a bias in processes that control aerosol activation. Furthermore, the liquid water path response to a perturbed cloud droplet number concentration behaves differently in E3SMv2 and observations, which warrants further study to improve the cloud microphysics parameterizations in E3SMv2.
摘要长期以来,地球系统模式(esm)中气溶胶、云和气溶胶-云相互作用(ACIs)的不准确表征一直是预测全球气候变化的最大不确定性。人们已经做出了巨大的努力来改善这些过程在ESM中的表现,而这些努力的关键是用观测来评估ESM模拟。大多数成熟的ESM诊断包侧重于气候特征;然而,它们缺乏对气溶胶、云和aci的过程级理解和表示。在这项研究中,我们开发了地球系统模型气溶胶-云诊断(ESMAC diag)包,以促进气溶胶、云和ACIs的常规评估,模拟了美国能源部(DOE)的能源百亿亿次地球系统模型(E3SM)。本文记录了其版本2的功能(ESMAC diag v2),与版本1相比有了实质性的更新(Tang et al., 2022a)。在ESMAC Diags v2中,模拟的气溶胶和云特性已与飞机、船舶、地面和卫星平台的原位和遥感测量结果进行了广泛的比较。它目前包括六个实地活动和两个常设地点,覆盖四个地理区域:北大西洋东部、美国中部、太平洋东北部和南大洋。这些区域经常产生液态或混合相云,美国能源部大气辐射测量用户设施和其他机构可以进行广泛的测量。ESMAC Diags v2生成各种类型的单变量和多变量诊断,包括百分比、直方图、联合直方图和热图,以评估气溶胶、云和aci的模型表示。使用E3SM版本2 (E3SMv2)显示了突出显示ESMAC diag功能的选择示例。总的来说,E3SMv2可以合理地再现许多观测到的气溶胶和云的特性,但在气溶胶颗粒和云滴大小和数量浓度等变量上存在偏差。在E3SMv2中,气溶胶和云数浓度的耦合可能太强,这可能表明控制气溶胶激活的过程存在偏差。此外,E3SMv2中液态水路径对扰动云滴数浓度的响应与观测结果存在差异,值得进一步研究以改进E3SMv2中的云微物理参数化。
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引用次数: 0
Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0) 热带森林人口结构植被模型中植物水动力学和水力失效风险的水力性状控制量化(fas - hydro V1.0)
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6267-2023
Chonggang Xu, Bradley Christoffersen, Zachary Robbins, Ryan Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Rutuja Chitra-Tarak, Martijn Slot, Kurt Solander, Lara Kueppers, Charles Koven, Nate McDowell
Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.
摘要植被在全球碳循环中起着关键作用,因此是预测未来气候的地球系统模式(ESMs)的重要组成部分。许多esm采用植被人口统计学模型来求解植物大小和生态系统扰动历史。这些模型使得对控制植被动态的过程进行更真实的模拟成为可能。同时,对植物水分利用的控制过程,特别是生态系统对干旱的反应的了解日益增加,导致在esm中采用了动态植物水分输送(即水动力学)方案。然而,在性状多样化的热带森林中,植物水力性状的变化对植物水分胁迫和死亡风险的影响程度尚未得到充分研究。在这项研究中,我们报告了现有的水动力方案(HYDRO)模型的敏感性分析,该模型被更新并纳入功能组装陆地生态系统模拟器(FATES) (FATES - HYDRO V1.0)。FATES中的大小和冠层结构表示能够模拟植物大小和水力特性如何影响植被动态和碳-水通量。为了更好地理解这个新的模型系统,特别是它在热带森林系统中的功能,我们在巴拿马的Barro Colorado岛进行了全球参数敏感性分析。我们收集了306种热带植物的气孔、叶片、茎和根的942个植物水力性状观测值,确定了每个性状的最适合统计分布,并将其用于模型参数抽样,以评估参数敏感性。研究表明,对于模拟叶片水势和不同植物器官的水力传导损失,四个最重要的性状与木质部导管锥度(随着树高增加水力阻力的缓冲)、气孔对叶片水势的敏感性、最大茎水力传导率以及总水力阻力在地上与地下的分配有关。结果表明,水力衰竭和潜在死亡风险较高的树木通常具有较低的导管锥度、较低的最大木质部电导率、较低的气孔对叶片水势的敏感性,以及较低的木质部栓塞对茎和运输根的抗性。我们期望我们的研究结果将为未来利用植物水动力模型来预测森林对干旱的反应的建模研究和未来旨在更好地参数化植物水动力模型的野外活动提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
IMEX_SfloW2D v2: a depth-averaged numerical flow model for volcanic gas–particle flows over complex topographies and water IMEX_SfloW2D v2:火山气体-颗粒在复杂地形和水中流动的深度平均数值流动模型
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6309-2023
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Samantha Engwell
Abstract. We present developments to the physical model and the open-source numerical code IMEX_SfloW2D (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., 2019). These developments consist of a generalization of the depth-averaged (shallow-water) fluid equations to describe a polydisperse fluid–solid mixture, including terms for sedimentation and entrainment, transport equations for solid particles of different sizes, transport equations for different components of the carrier phase, and an equation for temperature/energy. Of relevance for the simulation of volcanic mass flows, vaporization and entrainment of water are implemented in the new model. The model can be easily adapted to simulate a wide range of volcanic mass flows (pyroclastic avalanches, lahars, pyroclastic surges), and here we present its application to transient dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). The numerical algorithm and the code have been improved to allow for simulation of sub- to supercritical regimes and to simplify the setting of initial and boundary conditions. The code is open-source. The results of synthetic numerical benchmarks demonstrate the robustness of the numerical code in simulating transcritical flows interacting with the topography. Moreover, they highlight the importance of simulating transient in comparison to steady-state flows and flows in 2D versus 1D. Finally, we demonstrate the model capabilities to simulate a complex natural case involving the propagation of PDCs over the sea surface and across topographic obstacles, through application to Krakatau volcano, showing the relevance, at a large scale, of non-linear fluid dynamic features, such as hydraulic jumps and von Kármán vortices, to flow conditions such as velocity and runout.
摘要我们介绍了物理模型的发展和开源数值代码IMEX_SfloW2D (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., 2019)。这些发展包括对深度平均(浅水)流体方程的推广,以描述多分散的流固混合物,包括沉积和夹带的术语,不同大小的固体颗粒的输运方程,不同载体相组分的输运方程,以及温度/能量方程。与火山团块流的模拟相关的是,在新模型中实现了水的蒸发和夹带。该模型可以很容易地适应于模拟大范围的火山块流(火山碎屑雪崩、火山泥流、火山碎屑涌流),这里我们介绍了它在瞬态稀释火山碎屑密度流(PDCs)中的应用。数值算法和代码已得到改进,以允许模拟亚至超临界状态,并简化了初始条件和边界条件的设置。代码是开源的。综合数值基准的结果表明,该数值程序在模拟与地形相互作用的跨临界流动方面具有鲁棒性。此外,他们还强调了与稳态流动和二维与一维流动相比,模拟瞬态流动的重要性。最后,通过应用于喀拉喀托火山,我们展示了模型的能力,以模拟一个复杂的自然情况,包括PDCs在海面和地形障碍上的传播,在大尺度上显示了非线性流体动力学特征(如水力跳跃和von Kármán漩涡)与流速和跳动等流动条件的相关性。
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引用次数: 2
CIOFC1.0: a common parallel input/output framework based on C-Coupler2.0 CIOFC1.0:基于C-Coupler2.0的通用并行输入/输出框架
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6285-2023
Xinzhu Yu, Li Liu, Chao Sun, Qingu Jiang, Biao Zhao, Zhiyuan Zhang, Hao Yu, Bin Wang
Abstract. As earth system modeling develops ever finer grid resolutions, the inputting and outputting (I/O) of the increasingly large data fields becomes a processing bottleneck. Many models developed in China, as well as the community coupler (C-Coupler), do not fully benefit from existing parallel I/O supports. This paper reports the design and implementation of a common parallel input/output framework (CIOFC1.0) based on C-Coupler2.0. The CIOFC1.0 framework can accelerate the I/O of large data fields by parallelizing data read/write operations among processes. The framework also allows convenient specification by users of the I/O settings, e.g., the data fields for I/O, the time series of the data files for I/O, and the data grids in the files. The framework can also adaptively input data fields from a time series dataset during model integration, automatically interpolate data when necessary, and output fields either periodically or irregularly. CIOFC1.0 demonstrates the cooperative development of an I/O framework and coupler, and thus enables convenient and simultaneous use of a coupler and an I/O framework.
摘要随着地球系统建模向更精细的网格分辨率发展,越来越大的数据场的输入和输出(I/O)成为处理的瓶颈。中国开发的许多模型,以及社区耦合器(c -耦合器),并没有充分受益于现有的并行I/O支持。本文报道了基于C-Coupler2.0的通用并行输入/输出框架(CIOFC1.0)的设计与实现。CIOFC1.0框架通过并行化进程间的数据读写操作来加速大数据字段的I/O处理。该框架还允许用户方便地规范I/O设置,例如,I/O的数据字段、I/O数据文件的时间序列以及文件中的数据网格。该框架还可以在模型集成过程中自适应地从时间序列数据集输入数据字段,在必要时自动插入数据,并定期或不定期输出字段。CIOFC1.0演示了I/O框架和耦合器的协同开发,从而方便地同时使用耦合器和I/O框架。
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引用次数: 1
Description and evaluation of the new UM–UKCA (vn11.0) Double Extended Stratospheric–Tropospheric (DEST vn1.0) scheme for comprehensive modelling of halogen chemistry in the stratosphere 新UM-UKCA (vn11.0)双扩展平流层-对流层(DEST vn1.0)方案对平流层卤素化学综合模拟的描述和评价
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6187-2023
Ewa M. Bednarz, Ryan Hossaini, N. Luke Abraham, Martyn P. Chipperfield
Abstract. The paper describes the development and performance of the Double Extended Stratospheric–Tropospheric (DEST vn1.0) chemistry scheme, which forms a part of the Met Office's Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UM–UKCA) chemistry–climate model, which is the atmospheric composition model of the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM). The scheme extends the standard Stratospheric–Tropospheric chemistry scheme (StratTrop) by including a range of important updates to the halogen chemistry. These allow process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including the impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and emerging issues around uncontrolled very short-lived substances (VSLS). The main updates in DEST are (i) an explicit treatment of 14 of the most important long-lived ODSs; (ii) an inclusion of brominated VSLS (Br-VSLS) emissions and chemistry; and (iii) an inclusion of chlorinated VSLS (Cl-VSLS) emissions/LBCs (lower boundary conditions) and chemistry. We evaluate the scheme's performance by comparing DEST simulations against analogous runs made with the standard StratTrop scheme and against observational and reanalysis datasets. Overall, our scheme addresses some significant shortcomings in the representation of atmospheric halogens in the standard StratTrop scheme and will thus be particularly relevant for studies of ozone layer recovery and processes affecting it, in support of future World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Reports.
摘要本文介绍了双扩展平流层-对流层(DEST vn1.0)化学方案的发展和性能,该方案是英国气象局与英国化学和气溶胶(UM-UKCA)化学-气候模式耦合的统一模式的一部分,该模式是英国地球系统模式(UKESM)的大气成分模式。该方案扩展了标准的平流层-对流层化学方案(StratTrop),包括对卤素化学的一系列重要更新。这使得以过程为导向的平流层臭氧消耗和恢复研究成为可能,包括受控制的长寿命臭氧消耗物质(ods)的影响和围绕不受控制的极短寿命物质(VSLS)的新问题。DEST的主要更新是:(i)明确处理14种最重要的长期消耗臭氧层疾病;(ii)列入溴化VSLS (Br-VSLS)排放和化学;(iii)包括氯化VSLS (Cl-VSLS)排放/ lbc(下边界条件)和化学。我们通过比较DEST模拟与标准StratTrop方案的类似运行以及观测和再分析数据集来评估该方案的性能。总的来说,我们的方案解决了标准StratTrop方案中大气卤素表示的一些重大缺陷,因此将与臭氧层恢复及其影响过程的研究特别相关,以支持未来的世界气象组织(WMO)臭氧评估报告。
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引用次数: 2
Overcoming computational challenges to realize meter- to submeter-scale resolution in cloud simulations using the super-droplet method 利用超液滴方法克服云模拟中米到亚米尺度分辨率的计算难题
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6211-2023
Toshiki Matsushima, Seiya Nishizawa, Shin-ichiro Shima
Abstract. A particle-based cloud model was developed for meter- to submeter-scale-resolution simulations of warm clouds. Simplified cloud microphysics schemes have already made meter-scale-resolution simulations feasible; however, such schemes are based on empirical assumptions, and hence they contain huge uncertainties. The super-droplet method (SDM) is a promising candidate for cloud microphysical process modeling and is a particle-based approach, making fewer assumptions for the droplet size distributions. However, meter-scale-resolution simulations using the SDM are not feasible even on existing high-end supercomputers because of high computational cost. In the present study, we overcame challenges to realize such simulations. The contributions of our work are as follows: (1) the uniform sampling method is not suitable when dealing with a large number of super-droplets (SDs). Hence, we developed a new initialization method for sampling SDs from a real droplet population. These SDs can be used for simulating spatial resolutions between meter and submeter scales. (2) We optimized the SDM algorithm to achieve high performance by reducing data movement and simplifying loop bodies using the concept of effective resolution. The optimized algorithms can be applied to a Fujitsu A64FX processor, and most of them are also effective on other many-core CPUs and possibly graphics processing units (GPUs). Warm-bubble experiments revealed that the throughput of particle calculations per second for the improved algorithms is 61.3 times faster than those for the original SDM. In the case of shallow cumulous, the simulation time when using the new SDM with 32–64 SDs per cell is shorter than that of a bin method with 32 bins and comparable to that of a two-moment bulk method. (3) Using the supercomputer Fugaku, we demonstrated that a numerical experiment with 2 m resolution and 128 SDs per cell covering 13 8242×3072 m3 domain is possible. The number of grid points and SDs are 104 and 442 times, respectively, those of the highest-resolution simulation performed so far. Our numerical model exhibited 98 % weak scaling for 36 864 nodes, accounting for 23 % of the total system. The simulation achieves 7.97 PFLOPS, 7.04 % of the peak ratio for overall performance, and a simulation time for SDM of 2.86×1013 particle ⋅ steps per second. Several challenges, such as incorporating mixed-phase processes, inclusion of terrain, and long-time integrations, remain, and our study will also contribute to solving them. The developed model enables us to study turbulence and microphysics processes over a wide range of scales using combinations of direct numerical simulation (DNS), laboratory experiments, and field studies. We believe that our approach advances the scientific understanding of clouds and contributes to reducing the uncertainties of weather simulation and climate projection.
摘要建立了一种基于粒子的云模型,用于米到亚米尺度的暖云分辨率模拟。简化的云微物理方案已经使米尺度分辨率的模拟成为可能;然而,这些方案是基于经验假设的,因此它们包含巨大的不确定性。超级液滴方法(SDM)是云微物理过程建模的一个很有前途的候选方法,它是一种基于粒子的方法,对液滴大小分布的假设较少。然而,由于计算成本高,即使在现有的高端超级计算机上,使用SDM进行米级分辨率的模拟也不可行。在本研究中,我们克服了实现这种模拟的挑战。本工作的贡献如下:(1)均匀取样方法不适合处理大量的超液滴(SDs)。因此,我们开发了一种新的初始化方法来从真实的液滴群体中采样SDs。这些SDs可用于模拟米和亚米尺度之间的空间分辨率。(2)利用有效分辨率的概念,通过减少数据移动和简化循环体,对SDM算法进行了优化,实现了高性能。优化的算法可以应用于富士通A64FX处理器,其中大多数算法在其他多核cpu和可能的图形处理单元(gpu)上也有效。热泡实验表明,改进算法的每秒粒子计算吞吐量比原始SDM提高了61.3倍。在浅累积的情况下,使用每个单元32 - 64个SDs的新SDM的模拟时间比具有32个bin的bin方法短,与双矩bulk方法相当。(3)利用Fugaku超级计算机,我们证明了2 m分辨率和128个SDs / cell覆盖13 8242×3072 m3域的数值实验是可能的。网格点数和SDs数分别是目前最高分辨率模拟的104倍和442倍。我们的数值模型在36864个节点上显示出98%的弱缩放,占整个系统的23%。仿真实现了7.97 PFLOPS,总体性能峰值比为7.04%,SDM仿真时间为2.86×1013粒子·步/秒。一些挑战,如合并混合阶段过程、包含地形和长期集成,仍然存在,我们的研究也将有助于解决这些问题。开发的模型使我们能够使用直接数值模拟(DNS),实验室实验和现场研究相结合,在大范围内研究湍流和微物理过程。我们相信,我们的方法促进了对云的科学认识,并有助于减少天气模拟和气候预测的不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
A robust error correction method for numerical weather prediction wind speed based on Bayesian optimization, variational mode decomposition, principal component analysis, and random forest: VMD-PCA-RF (version 1.0.0) 基于贝叶斯优化、变分模态分解、主成分分析和随机森林的数值天气预报风速稳健误差校正方法:VMD-PCA-RF (version 1.0.0)
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6247-2023
Shaohui Zhou, Chloe Yuchao Gao, Zexia Duan, Xingya Xi, Yubin Li
Abstract. Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for the safe and efficient utilization of wind resources. However, current single-value deterministic numerical weather prediction methods employed by wind farms do not adequately meet the actual needs of power grid dispatching. In this study, we propose a new hybrid forecasting method for correcting 10 m wind speed predictions made by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our approach incorporates variational mode decomposition (VMD), principal component analysis (PCA), and five artificial intelligence algorithms: deep belief network (DBN), multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forest (RF), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (lightGBM), and the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA). We first predict wind speeds using the WRF model, with initial and lateral boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS). We then perform two sets of experiments with different input factors and apply BOA optimization to tune the four artificial intelligence models, ultimately building the final models. Furthermore, we compare the aforementioned five optimal artificial intelligence models suitable for five provinces in southern China in the wintertime: VMD-PCA-RF in December 2021 and VMD-PCA-lightGBM in January 2022. We find that the VMD-PCA-RF evaluation indices exhibit relative stability over nearly a year: the correlation coefficient (R) is above 0.6, forecasting accuracy (FA) is above 85 %, mean absolute error (MAE) is below 0.6 m s−1, root mean square error (RMSE) is below 0.8 m s−1, relative mean absolute error (rMAE) is below 60 %, and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) is below 75 %. Thus, for its promising performance and excellent year-round robustness, we recommend adopting the proposed VMD-PCA-RF method for improved wind speed prediction in models.
摘要准确的风速预测对风资源的安全高效利用至关重要。然而,目前风电场采用的单值确定性数值天气预报方法不能很好地满足电网调度的实际需要。在这项研究中,我们提出了一种新的混合预报方法,用于校正由天气研究与预报(WRF)模式预测的10 m风速。我们的方法结合了变分模态分解(VMD)、主成分分析(PCA)和五种人工智能算法:深度信念网络(DBN)、多层感知器(MLP)、随机森林(RF)、极限梯度增强(XGBoost)、轻梯度增强机(lightGBM)和贝叶斯优化算法(BOA)。我们首先利用全球预报系统(GFS)的初始和横向边界条件,利用WRF模式预测风速。然后,我们使用不同的输入因素进行两组实验,并应用BOA优化来调整四个人工智能模型,最终构建最终模型。此外,我们还比较了上述适用于中国南方五省冬季的五种最优人工智能模型:2021年12月的VMD-PCA-RF和2022年1月的VMD-PCA-lightGBM。研究发现,近一年来,VMD-PCA-RF评价指标表现出相对稳定性:相关系数(R)在0.6以上,预测精度(FA)在85%以上,平均绝对误差(MAE)在0.6 m s−1以下,均方根误差(RMSE)在0.8 m s−1以下,相对平均绝对误差(rMAE)在60%以下,相对均方根误差(rRMSE)在75%以下。因此,由于其良好的性能和出色的全年鲁棒性,我们建议采用所提出的VMD-PCA-RF方法来改进模型中的风速预测。
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引用次数: 0
Description and performance of a sectional aerosol microphysical model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) 社区地球系统模型(CESM2)中剖面气溶胶微物理模型的描述和性能
3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-6087-2023
Simone Tilmes, Michael J. Mills, Yunqian Zhu, Charles G. Bardeen, Francis Vitt, Pengfei Yu, David Fillmore, Xiaohong Liu, Brian Toon, Terry Deshler
Abstract. We implemented the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) in both the high- and low-top model versions of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). CARMA is a sectional microphysical model, which we use for aerosol in both the troposphere and stratosphere. CARMA is fully coupled to chemistry, clouds, radiation, and transport routines in CESM2. This development enables the comparison of simulations with a sectional (CARMA) and a modal (MAM4) aerosol microphysical model in the same modeling framework. The new implementation of CARMA has been adopted from previous work, with some additions that align with the current CESM2 Modal Aerosol Model (MAM4) implementation. The main updates include an interactive secondary organic aerosol description in CARMA, using the volatility basis set (VBS) approach, updated wet removal, and the use of transient emissions of aerosols and trace gases. In addition, we implemented an alternative aerosol nucleation scheme in CARMA, which is also used in MAM4. Detailed comparisons of stratospheric aerosol properties after the Mount Pinatubo eruption reveal the importance of prescribing sulfur injections in a larger region rather than in a single column to better represent the observed evolution of aerosols. Both CARMA and MAM4 in CESM2 are able to represent stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol properties reasonably well when compared to observations. Several differences in the performance of the two aerosol models show, in general, an improved representation of aerosols when using the sectional aerosol model in CESM2. These include a better representation of the aerosol size distribution after the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in CARMA compared to MAM4. MAM4 produces on average smaller aerosols and less removal than CARMA, which results in a larger total mass. Both CARMA and MAM4 reproduce the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) within the error bar of the observations between 2001 and 2020, except for recent larger volcanic eruptions that are overestimated by both model configurations. The CARMA background surface area density and aerosol size distribution in the stratosphere and troposphere compare well to observations, with some underestimation of the Aitken-mode size range. MAM4 shows shortcomings in reproducing coarse-mode aerosol distributions in the stratosphere and troposphere. This work outlines additional development needs for CESM2 CARMA to improve the model compared to observations in both the troposphere and stratosphere.
摘要我们将社区大气气溶胶和辐射模式(CARMA)应用于社区地球系统模式第2版(CESM2)的高顶模式和低顶模式。CARMA是一种截面微物理模型,我们将其用于对流层和平流层的气溶胶。CARMA与CESM2中的化学、云、辐射和运输程序完全耦合。这一发展使得在相同的建模框架下,能够对分段(CARMA)和模态(MAM4)气溶胶微物理模型的模拟进行比较。CARMA的新实施是从以前的工作中采用的,并增加了一些与当前CESM2模态气溶胶模型(MAM4)实施一致的内容。主要更新包括CARMA中的交互式二次有机气溶胶描述,使用挥发性基础集(VBS)方法,更新的湿法去除,以及使用气溶胶和微量气体的瞬态排放。此外,我们在CARMA中实施了一种替代的气溶胶成核方案,该方案也在MAM4中使用。Pinatubo火山喷发后平流层气溶胶特性的详细比较揭示了在更大的区域而不是在单个柱上规定硫注入的重要性,以更好地代表观测到的气溶胶演变。与观测值相比,CESM2中的CARMA和MAM4都能较好地反映平流层和对流层气溶胶特性。在CESM2中使用截面气溶胶模式时,两种气溶胶模式性能的几个差异总体上表明了气溶胶的改进表示。其中包括与MAM4相比,CARMA中Pinatubo火山爆发后气溶胶大小分布的更好表现。与CARMA相比,MAM4产生的气溶胶平均更小,去除量更少,因此总质量更大。CARMA和MAM4都在2001年至2020年观测的误差条内重现了平流层气溶胶光学深度(AOD),但最近较大的火山爆发被两种模式配置高估了。CARMA在平流层和对流层的背景表面积密度和气溶胶尺寸分布与观测值比较好,但对艾特肯模态尺寸范围有一定的低估。MAM4在再现平流层和对流层中粗模态气溶胶分布方面存在不足。与对流层和平流层的观测结果相比,这项工作概述了CESM2 CARMA改进模式的其他发展需要。
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Geoscientific Model Development
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