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Review of "The World Model Controversy: Will Mankind Survive?, by Richard M. Laska", Computer Decisions, 1972 《世界模式之争:人类能否生存?》, Richard M. Laska著,《计算机决策》,1972年
Pub Date : 1972-12-31 DOI: 10.1145/1103267.1103269
W. Burkhardt
This well-written paper expounds in some detail on the well-publicized results of computer simulations of the behavior of dynamic world systems. These systems try to predict future trends of "comfortability" variables, like natural resources and food available, industrial output, population and pollution levels, etc. The models are based on equations, often overly simplistic or estimated, for the interaction of these variables. There seem to be no provisions for sideway modification of the variables: people moving to rural areas because of pollution, or to the suburbs because of crime; or substitution of natural resources by artificial ones. In addition, most of the parameters, like birth rates, appear to be static. Results under the chosen assumptions paint a "worldwide breakdown" (of industrial society) "unless all growth in the variables can be stopped." To the reviewer, in a formerly pollution-ridden city, these worthwhile investigations appear not much more than the simple calculations of "standing room only" type, even if he does not agree with the strongest critics ("a bunch of schoolkids with a computer predicting the world"). The paper succeeds well in delineating the current controversy, even if in places it has a sensationalistic appearance. Also, more detailed technical material may have been of benefit.
这篇写得很好的论文详细阐述了广为人知的计算机模拟动态世界系统行为的结果。这些系统试图预测“舒适”变量的未来趋势,如自然资源和可用食物、工业产出、人口和污染水平等。这些模型是基于这些变量相互作用的方程,通常过于简单或估计。似乎没有对这些变量进行横向修改的规定:人们因为污染而搬到农村地区,或者因为犯罪而搬到郊区;或者用人工资源代替自然资源。此外,大多数参数,如出生率,似乎是静态的。所选假设下的结果描绘了(工业社会的)“世界性崩溃”。“除非所有变量的增长都能被阻止。”对于评论者来说,在一个以前污染严重的城市,这些有价值的调查看起来只不过是“只有站着的地方”的简单计算,即使他不同意最强烈的批评(“一群小学生用电脑预测世界”)。这篇文章很好地描述了当前的争议,尽管有些地方看起来有些耸人听闻。此外,更详细的技术材料可能会有好处。
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引用次数: 0
Review of "Computer Simulations of Voting Behavior, by Paul R. Shaffer", Oxford University Press, 1972 《投票行为的计算机模拟》,保罗·谢弗著,牛津大学出版社,1972年
Pub Date : 1972-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103263.1103265
Gerald B. Finch
Investigators should submit papers describing actual experiences with computer use in a specific course. Papers must report concrete results only, and be submitted in final form. Papers which will be presented are to be refereed and selected by a panel drawn from each field. The conference will be held on the campuses of the Claremont Colleges. Deadline date for the submission of papers is January 15, 1973. This work is difficult to assess due to the misleading prominent reference to computer simulation in its title. The reader anticipating a sophisticated application of computer simulation is unlikely to find much of interest in Shaffer's anai~rsis. However, Shaffer's treatment of different models of voting behavior should prove useful to those familiar with the literature on voting behavior. Shaffer discusses four models of voting. His review of the simulative efforts of Pool, Abelson, Popkin and McPhee, Ferguson, and Smith is good. Both the theory and the methodology of these two pioneering computer simulations are reviewed intelligently and extensively. The two other models selected by Shaffer are the rational-man model of Anthony Downs (An Economic Theory of Democracy) and the components model of an~ysts affiiiated with t~ University of Michigan's Survey Rsearch Center (Stokes, Campbell, and Miller). Neither of the two latter models are computer simulations. Although he discusses four theories of voting, Shaffer applies only two to electrical phenomena. The bulk of his work consists of the empirical application of the Downsian and SRC models. Curiously, after discussing in some detail the simulations of Pool, et al. and McPee, et al., Shaffer virtually ignores them in the last four of the book's seven chapters. The models of Downs and the SRC are both based at the individual psychological level. In each the citizen decides whether to vote and for whom to vote. (Although the former decision is not considered by the original SRC model, Shaffer modifies it to account for abstention.) The emphasis of Downs is on the rational cost-benefit calculus of the citizen. The citizen makes a number of calculations (e.g., information costs, expected utility flows from candidates, etc.) which govern his electoral decision.
研究者应提交论文,描述在特定课程中使用计算机的实际经验。论文必须只报告具体的结果,并以最终形式提交。将提交的论文将由来自每个领域的小组进行评审和选择。会议将在克莱蒙特学院的校园里举行。论文提交截止日期为1973年1月15日。这项工作是难以评估的,由于误导突出的参考计算机模拟在其标题。期待计算机模拟的复杂应用的读者不太可能对谢弗的分析感兴趣。然而,Shaffer对不同投票行为模型的处理应该对那些熟悉投票行为文献的人有用。谢弗讨论了四种投票模式。他对普尔、阿贝尔森、波普金、麦克菲、弗格森和史密斯的模拟努力的回顾很好。这两个开创性的计算机模拟的理论和方法进行了智能和广泛的审查。谢弗选择的另外两个模型是安东尼·唐斯(《民主的经济理论》)的理性人模型和密歇根大学调查研究中心(Stokes, Campbell, and Miller)下属的一个研究小组的成分模型。后两种模型都不是计算机模拟的。尽管谢弗讨论了四种投票理论,但他只将两种理论应用于电现象。他的大部分工作包括对唐斯模型和SRC模型的实证应用。奇怪的是,在详细讨论了Pool等人和McPee等人的模拟之后,Shaffer实际上在书的七章的最后四章中忽略了它们。Downs和SRC的模型都是基于个体心理层面的。在每个选举中,公民决定是否投票和投票给谁。(尽管最初的SRC模型没有考虑到前一种决定,但Shaffer对其进行了修改,以考虑弃权。)唐斯的重点是公民的理性成本-收益计算。公民需要进行一系列计算(例如,信息成本、候选人的预期效用流等),这些计算影响着他的选举决策。
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引用次数: 0
Review of "An Introduction to Data Management in the Behavioral Social Sciences, by Sheldon Blackman and Kenneth Goldstein", Wiley, 1971 《行为社会科学中的数据管理导论》,谢尔顿·布莱克曼和肯尼斯·戈德斯坦著,威利出版社,1971年
Pub Date : 1972-07-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103259.1103261
Ron Anderson
This is to register a strong disagreement with the review in the last SIGSOC Bulletin, which favorably described the Blackman and Goldstein book. The book was described as "a useful book to recommend to people beginning to work on dissertation research projects or in a programming course aimed at social scientists." While the book is quite readable, it glosses over the techniques involved in setting up analysis for computer data processing and omits problems of even minimal complexity. Its chief weakness is the perspective that it leaves the reader. For one thing it suggests that the BMD and P-Stat packages are the major packages for social data analysis, but even more disturbing it suggests that one can get along quite well using the ccmputer without much understanding of techniques and principles involved. It most certainly would not be appropriate for "a programming course aimed at social scientists," because not only does it suggest that programming skills are unnecessary, but it avoids interesting problems that programming is required to resolve. The negative consequences of teaching package usage alone have been previously stated at last year's Dartmouth Conference on ccmputers in undergraduate curriculum and at the ACM 1971 Panel on Social Science Computing Curricula. It is not clear to me why a book of the Blackman and Goldstein character should even appear in print given a more urgent need for other approaches in the social sciences. It certainly is justified as a mimeographed manual to be used as a supplementary resource for undergraduates utilizing computing for course projects. But the institutionalization of this kind of approach is most certainly questionable. I feel that much of the attitude of social science toward computing as low level, undesirable tedium results from an approach which over simplifies the techniques of computer utilization and implies that the most reasonable social scientists can go about their way quite well without understanding any computing. How can we stimulate students to tackle computing problems creatively, to optimize the potential of computing for the future of social sciences if we limit their exposure to control cards setups?
这是为了表达对上次SIGSOC公报的强烈反对,该公报对布莱克曼和戈尔茨坦的书进行了有利的描述。这本书被描述为“一本有用的书,推荐给那些开始从事论文研究项目或针对社会科学家的编程课程的人。”虽然这本书很好读,但它掩盖了为计算机数据处理建立分析所涉及的技术,甚至忽略了最小复杂性的问题。它的主要缺点是它留给读者的视角。一方面,它表明BMD和P-Stat软件包是社会数据分析的主要软件包,但更令人不安的是,它表明,一个人可以很好地使用计算机,而不需要对所涉及的技术和原理有太多的了解。它肯定不适合“面向社会科学家的编程课程”,因为它不仅表明编程技能是不必要的,而且它避免了需要编程来解决的有趣问题。在去年的达特茅斯大学本科课程计算机会议和ACM 1971年社会科学计算课程小组会议上,单独使用教学包的负面影响已经被陈述过。我不明白为什么布莱克曼和戈尔茨坦的书会出现在印刷中,因为社会科学更迫切地需要其他方法。作为一本油印手册,它当然是合理的,可以作为本科生在课程项目中使用计算机的补充资源。但这种方法的制度化肯定是有问题的。我觉得社会科学对计算的态度是低级的、不受欢迎的乏味,这是由于一种过度简化计算机使用技术的方法,并暗示最理性的社会科学家可以在不了解任何计算的情况下很好地工作。如果我们限制学生接触控制卡设置,我们如何激发学生创造性地解决计算问题,优化计算的潜力,为未来的社会科学服务?
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引用次数: 0
Review of "Computers in Knowledge-Based Fields, by Charles H. Myers", M. I. T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1970 回顾“计算机在知识为基础的领域,由查尔斯H.迈尔斯”,麻省理工学院出版社,剑桥,马萨诸塞州,1970年
Pub Date : 1971-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103245.1103247
Ronald E. Anderson
This useful little book surveys several knowledge-based areas where computers are being used. Myers has written a readable and concise summary of the field. The study covers only the following major fields: I. Formal education-including administration of educational institutions and computer-assisted-instructions. 2. Library systems and subsystems. 3. Legal and legislative services, administration of justice, crime-prevention and law enforcement. 4. Medical and hospital services. 5. Social information systems. A single chapter is devoted to each of these five areas. Each chapter briefly discusses the needs of the area, the principal initial application of computers, recent efforts to utilize computers in the area, and implications of computers for the nature of the work performed. Each chapter includes extensive footnotes and provides a very valuable introduction to the literature of each of these application areas up through the 1960's. The approach taken in the book is to first present the issues involved in a particular field and then to conclude with the author's own opinion which generally turns out to be one of moderation without excessive preoccupation with any extreme position. Another important consideration in the book is the problem of social resistances to computer introductions. Myers discusses how people, e.g., medical professionalsp frequently resist introduction to computer-based systems; he discusses the legitimate and illegitimate bases of these resistance tendencies, The chapter on social information systems is entitled "National and Centralized Local Data Banks." First, he discusses the development of local data banks as they are relevant to the privacy issue and the initial proposal for a national data bank. This chapter is of direct relevance to those in social computing. The author is to be lauded for the broad coverage of material in only 126 pages. The liberal use of footnotes and outline form used makes for a very packed introduction to each of the knowledge-based areas. The most serious criticism that should be made about the books is that certain important knowledge-based fields are completely omitted from the book, for instances the impact of computers upon science is largely neglected.
这本有用的小书调查了计算机正在使用的几个以知识为基础的领域。迈尔斯对这个领域写了一篇简明易懂的总结。本研究只涉及以下主要领域:1 .正规教育-包括教育机构的管理和计算机辅助教学。2. 图书馆系统和子系统。3.法律和立法服务、司法行政、预防犯罪和执法。4. 医疗和医院服务。5. 社会信息系统。单独的一章专门讨论这五个领域。每章简要地讨论了该领域的需求,计算机的主要初始应用,最近在该领域利用计算机的努力,以及计算机对所执行工作性质的影响。每一章都包括大量的脚注,并提供了一个非常有价值的介绍,每个这些应用领域的文献,直到20世纪60年代。在书中采取的方法是首先提出的问题涉及到一个特定的领域,然后以作者自己的观点,一般证明是一个温和的,没有过度关注任何极端立场的结论。书中另一个重要的考虑是社会对引入计算机的抵制问题。迈尔斯讨论了人们,例如医疗专业人员如何经常拒绝使用基于计算机的系统;他讨论了这些抵抗倾向的合法和不合法的基础,关于社会信息系统的一章题为“国家和集中的地方数据库”。首先,他讨论了地方数据库的发展,因为它们与隐私问题和国家数据库的初步建议有关。这一章与社会计算直接相关。作者因其仅用126页就涵盖了广泛的材料而受到称赞。大量使用脚注和大纲形式,使得每个知识领域的介绍非常紧凑。对这些书应该提出的最严重的批评是,某些重要的以知识为基础的领域在书中完全被省略了,例如,计算机对科学的影响在很大程度上被忽视了。
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引用次数: 0
A cognitive-conceptual dictionary, and its application in computer analyses of content 一种认知概念词典及其在计算机内容分析中的应用
Pub Date : 1969-12-01 DOI: 10.1145/1198284.1198285
J. Laffal, Laurence MacNaughton
This is a report on an operational technique for the content analysis of free flowing text, employing a conceptual dictionary. The method has been applied in numerous studies, and while it is undergoing constant revision, currently stands as a feasible approach to automatic content analysis. The dictionary is like an interlingual dictionary, translating words into a cognitive-conceptual language by substituting concepts for the words. The cognitiveconceptual language consists of 114 content categories empirically derived by grouping words related in meaning. About 25,000 words of English are so categorized. A text may be analyzed for total content or for selected categories. A recent advance in programming, which we call a "fall back" routine, permits the program to process a virtually unedited text and to match text words with dictionary words even where they differ by suffix. The procedure does this by taking the dictionary word which matches most closely to the text word.
这是一个关于使用概念词典对自由流动文本进行内容分析的操作技术的报告。该方法已在许多研究中得到应用,虽然它正在不断修订,但目前已成为自动内容分析的可行方法。字典就像一本跨语言词典,通过用概念代替单词,将单词翻译成认知-概念语言。认知概念语言由114个内容类别组成,这些内容类别是通过对意义相关的词进行分组而经验得出的。大约有25000个英语单词是这样分类的。可以对文本的全部内容或选定的类别进行分析。编程的最新进展,我们称之为“回退”例程,允许程序处理几乎未经编辑的文本,并将文本单词与字典单词匹配,即使它们的后缀不同。该过程通过获取与文本单词最接近的字典单词来实现这一点。
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引用次数: 0
DATATRAN: a data transformation facility DATATRAN:数据转换工具
Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1145/1198277.1198278
Ken Jacobs, L. Cooprider, R. F. Teitel
DATATRAN was designed to meet the need for a general, easy-to-use data transformation facility. This need exists because of the requirements most statistical processors impose as to the nature of input data. Although several of these processors include limited data transformation abilities (such as the BMD package) and almost all permit user supplied FORMAT descriptions of the data, several serious drawbacks can be seen. First, these capabilities, when present , differ widely from program to program. Second, users often find such facilities difficult to use, and even harder to debug. Lastly, no matter how general such a facility is, it is likely that some user will have data in a form which the program is unequipped to handle, or will desire a transformation which the program cannot perform. The intended use of DATATRAN is as a preliminary job step to prepare data for processing by a statistical processor of some sort. However , DATATRAN does include some arithmetic and functional abilities to allow limited data processing. The philosophy of the design of DATATRAN called for maximum transformational capabilities completely under the user's control in an easy-to-read and write syntax. Hopefully, this philosophy has been fulfilled. DATATRAN operates on data groups, or observations. If, for example, a survey produces 2 cards of data per respondent, the transformations the user desires are performed on the data in 2 card blocks. A block of data is read, each of the DATATRAN statements is executed, and the transformed block of data is placed on the output file the user designates. Each record in the block is designated by a letter of the alphabet. Thus a block which contains four records contains records A,B,C, and D. The length and number of the records in both the input and output blocks are specified by the user. Within a record, positions are referred to by column number. Thus, A3 refers to the third column on the first record, while B33-40 refers to columns 33 through 40 of the second record of a block. DATATRAN recognizes three data types: punch, value, and literal. Although it is expected that DATATRAN input will most often be from tape or disk, it is especially easy to picture these data types with respect to a punched card. The following descriptions are applicable to data placed on any type of device, though the references will be to card data. A punch variable consists …
DATATRAN的设计是为了满足对通用的、易于使用的数据转换设施的需求。这种需求的存在是因为大多数统计处理程序对输入数据的性质提出了要求。尽管这些处理器中有几个包含有限的数据转换能力(例如BMD包),并且几乎所有处理器都允许用户提供数据的FORMAT描述,但是可以看到一些严重的缺点。首先,这些能力在不同的程序之间差别很大。其次,用户经常发现这些工具很难使用,甚至更难调试。最后,不管这种工具有多通用,很可能有些用户的数据形式是程序无法处理的,或者他们希望进行程序无法执行的转换。DATATRAN的预期用途是作为准备数据以供某种统计处理器处理的初步工作步骤。然而,DATATRAN确实包括一些算术和功能,以允许有限的数据处理。DATATRAN的设计理念要求在易于读写的语法中实现完全在用户控制下的最大转换功能。希望这个理念已经实现了。DATATRAN对数据组或观测值进行操作。例如,如果一项调查为每个应答者生成2张数据卡,则用户希望的转换将在2张卡片块中对数据执行。读取一个数据块,执行每个DATATRAN语句,并将转换后的数据块放在用户指定的输出文件中。块中的每个记录由字母表中的一个字母指定。因此,包含4条记录的块包含记录a、B、C和d。输入和输出块中记录的长度和数量由用户指定。在一个记录中,位置是通过列号来引用的。因此,A3指的是第一个记录的第三列,而B33-40指的是块的第二个记录的33到40列。DATATRAN识别三种数据类型:打孔、值和文字。虽然预计DATATRAN输入将经常来自磁带或磁盘,但是用穿孔卡片来描绘这些数据类型是特别容易的。下面的描述适用于放置在任何类型设备上的数据,尽管参考将是卡数据。一个punch变量包含……
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引用次数: 0
A review of OSIRIS IV 欧西里斯4号的回顾
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103009.1103010
R. Roistacher
The Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research has begun the dissemination of OSIRIS IV, the latest version in Michigan's series of statistical systems. OSIRIS IV is designed to be an eventual replacement for the OSIRIS III system. OSIRIS has long been the ugly duckling of statistical systems. Data analysts find its six volumes of documentation forbidding and unintelligible, and dislike the cross-tabulation program's control syntax and lack of category labels. As a result, most data managers have remained unaware of OSIRIS III's unequalled power at managing sequential data files.
密歇根大学社会研究所的调查研究中心已经开始传播OSIRIS IV,这是密歇根统计系统系列的最新版本。OSIRIS IV被设计为OSIRIS III系统的最终替代品。OSIRIS长期以来一直是统计系统中的丑小鸭。数据分析师发现它的六卷文档令人生畏且难以理解,并且不喜欢交叉制表程序的控制语法和缺乏类别标签。因此,大多数数据管理人员仍然没有意识到OSIRIS III在管理顺序数据文件方面无与伦比的能力。
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引用次数: 0
SOCK: a sociometric analysis system SOCK:一个社会计量分析系统
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103251.1103252
R. Alba, M. Gutmann
The SOCK system is intended to provide a set of procedures for sociometric clique identification. The procedures in SOCK are based upon numerical clustering techniques which isolate highly interrelated subsets of individuals. Since clustering techniques do not generally work well when operating on simple dichotomous choice data, i.e., on adjacency matrices, these procedures involve the derivation of some matrix of pairwise social distance or proximity from the dichotomous choice data.
SOCK系统旨在提供一套社会计量学派系识别的程序。SOCK中的程序基于数值聚类技术,该技术隔离高度相关的个体子集。由于聚类技术在处理简单的二分类选择数据(即邻接矩阵)时通常不能很好地工作,因此这些过程涉及从二分类选择数据中推导出一些两两社会距离或接近度矩阵。
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引用次数: 21
Some effects of considerate and inconsiderate systems 体贴和不体贴系统的一些影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103312.1103314
Ronald E. Anderson
Concern for the human factors in computer systems continues to grow as computerization becomes more and more pervasive. In the early period of computing such concern was expressed in terms of "user orientation" and "user requirements." As interactive systems evolved it became more common to hear terms like "responsive systems," and "end-user requirements." In the early Seventies, when the computer profession experienced a wave of social responsibility, discussions emerged on "humanizing" systems [1]. More recent discussions on these issues describe ideal systems as people-oriented, convivial, or friendly [2]. Despite this attention to human factors there is relatively little systematic knowledge about what system features actually take human needs and desires into account, and, in this sense, are considerate.
随着计算机化的日益普及,人们对计算机系统中人为因素的关注也在不断增长。在计算的早期阶段,这种关注是用“用户导向”和“用户需求”来表达的。随着交互式系统的发展,像“响应系统”和“终端用户需求”这样的术语变得越来越常见。70年代初,当计算机行业经历了一波社会责任浪潮时,出现了关于“人性化”系统的讨论[1]。最近关于这些问题的讨论将理想的系统描述为以人为本的、欢乐的或友好的[2]。尽管对人的因素有这样的关注,但是关于哪些系统特性实际上考虑了人的需求和愿望,并且在这个意义上,是考虑周到的,相对来说,系统知识很少。
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引用次数: 1
Review of "The tracker: a threat to statistical database security, by D. E. Denning, P. J. Denning, and M. D. Schwartz", ACM Trans. Database Systems, 1979 “跟踪器:对统计数据库安全的威胁,作者:D. E. Denning, P. J. Denning, and M. D. Schwartz”,ACM译。数据库系统,1979年
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1145/1103009.1103012
J. Belzer
The authors point out that queries to the system compute raw statistics for a query set. Questioners with prior knowledge of a given individual can divide their queries into parts such that when reassembled into a special characteristic, formulas will isolate the proprietary information about the individual. These formulas are called trackers, The paper reviews the literature on the extent and limits of trackers, provides excellent information to show how they can extract individualized information and so subvert the confidentiality of database files. The paper also reviews individual trackers and defines ranges within which they work, and shows how statistical responses to queries do compromise confidentiality of information, positively or negatively; positively if the individual falls into the given category and negatively if not. The authors then proceed to develop a general tracker and show how it can be applied within restricted subranges to extract individualized information. Under conditions where this fails, they show how a double tracker can be used. In general, trackers for most statistical database systems exist within the database, or can be easily obtained, thereby compromising the confidentiality of the data.
作者指出,对系统的查询计算查询集的原始统计信息。对给定的个人有先验知识的提问者可以将他们的查询分成几个部分,这样当重新组合成一个特殊的特征时,公式将隔离关于个人的专有信息。本文回顾了关于跟踪器的范围和限制的文献,提供了优秀的信息来说明它们如何提取个性化信息,从而破坏数据库文件的机密性。本文还回顾了单个跟踪器,并定义了它们的工作范围,并展示了对查询的统计响应如何损害信息的机密性,无论是积极的还是消极的;如果这个人属于特定的类别,那就是积极的,如果不是,那就是消极的。作者接着开发了一个通用跟踪器,并展示了如何在有限的子范围内应用它来提取个性化信息。在这种方法失败的情况下,他们展示了如何使用双跟踪器。一般来说,大多数统计数据库系统的跟踪器存在于数据库中,或者可以很容易地获得,从而损害了数据的机密性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ACM Sigsoc Bulletin
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