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Trust and Household Debt 信托及家庭债务
Pub Date : 2016-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1954790
Danling Jiang, S. Lim
Using a large sample of U.S. individuals, we show that individuals with higher levels of trust have lower likelihoods of default in household debt and higher net worth. The effect is driven by trust values inherited from cultural and family backgrounds more than by trust beliefs about others. We demonstrate a causal impact of trust on financial outcomes by extracting the component of trust correlated with early-life experiences. The effect of trust is more pronounced among females, those with lower education, lower income, lower financial literacy, and higher debt-to-income ratio. Further evidence suggests that enhancing individuals' trust, to the right amount, can improve household financial well-being.
使用大量美国个人样本,我们表明,信任水平较高的个人在家庭债务违约的可能性较低,净资产较高。这种影响是由文化和家庭背景中继承的信任价值观驱动的,而不是由对他人的信任信念驱动的。我们通过提取与早期生活经历相关的信任成分来证明信任对财务结果的因果影响。信任的影响在女性、受教育程度较低、收入较低、金融知识水平较低、债务收入比较高的女性中更为明显。进一步的证据表明,在适当的程度上增强个人的信任,可以改善家庭的财务状况。
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引用次数: 36
Heterogeneous Convergence of Regional House Prices and the Complexity in China 中国区域房价异质性收敛与复杂性
Pub Date : 2015-12-21 DOI: 10.18045/ZBEFRI.2015.2.325
R. Lin, Z. Xin, Xiuting Li, Jichang Dong
The purpose of this research is to analyze the convergence of regional house prices and its complexity in China. In this purpose it used nonlinear time varying factor model. The obtained results have provided evidences for the existence of some degree of segmentation in China’s housing market. By further dynamic analysis of the convergence, we have found that important housing policies from Chinese central government can significantly alter the housing market but with a time lag of 4 to 5 months, and that quite different behaviors exist between the new house market and the second-hand house market in China, which provides the evidence for the complexity of housing market in China. Multiple factors together are the driving forces for the regional house price convergence. And the driving forces differ among three clubs. The basic conclusion provided from the realized research is that the conventional definitions of economic regions may not be appropriate to analyze house price segregation in China. Heterogeneous convergence exists in China’s regional house prices, indicating the complexity of regional house prices in China. And housing policies should be implemented with different focus among the regions. The way of the central government is to make housing policies aiming at different sub-markets of the new house market and the second-hand house market.
本研究的目的是分析中国区域房价的收敛性及其复杂性。为此,采用了非线性时变因子模型。所得结果为中国住房市场存在一定程度的分割提供了证据。通过进一步的趋同动态分析,我们发现中国中央政府的重要住房政策能够显著改变住房市场,但存在4 ~ 5个月的时滞,中国新房市场和二手房市场的行为存在较大差异,这为中国住房市场的复杂性提供了证据。多种因素共同作用是区域房价趋同的驱动力。三家俱乐部的驱动力各不相同。从已实现的研究中得出的基本结论是,传统的经济区域定义可能不适合分析中国的房价分离。中国区域房价存在异质性收敛,表明中国区域房价的复杂性。住房政策的实施应根据地区的不同重点加以区分。中央政府的方式是针对新房市场和二手房市场的不同子市场制定住房政策。
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引用次数: 7
Occupational Choice, Retirement, and the Effects of Disability Insurance 职业选择、退休和残疾保险的影响
Pub Date : 2015-09-20 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.051
Lindsay Jacobs
There is much variation in the physical requirements across occupations, giving rise to great differences in later-life productivity, disability risk, and the value of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). In this paper, I look at how such differences across occupations affect initial career choice as well as the extent to which SSDI, which insures shocks to productivity due to disability, prompts more people to choose physically intense occupations. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS), I estimate a dynamic model of occupational choice and retirement with heterogeneous agents and equilibrium effects on earnings across occupations. I document the differences between blue-collar and white-collar occupations in the effects of declining health and disability on productivity, which affects labor supply in later life and, in the context of a life-cycle model, influences the occupation decision. Through counterfactual exercises, I show that the additional disability risk in blue-collar jobs relative to white-collar jobs is equivalent to an additional six percentage point reduction in lifetime consumption and that the absence of SSDI, which insures some of this risk, would be equivalent to, respectively, a twelve and seven percent reduction in consumption for those in blue- and white- collar jobs. Furthermore, I find that the presence of SSDI results in three percent more individuals choosing blue-collar occupations, which is comparable to the effect on occupation selection resulting from an eight-percent increase in blue-collar earnings. This overall effect, however, masks the importance of the selection of less risk-averse individuals into blue-collar jobs and the equilibrium effects on wages; earnings for the most risk-averse type would have to be nearly fifteen percent greater to choose blue-collar{{p}}occupations in the absence of SSDI.
不同职业对身体的要求存在很大差异,这导致了晚年生产力、残疾风险和社会保障残疾保险(SSDI)价值的巨大差异。在本文中,我研究了不同职业之间的这种差异如何影响最初的职业选择,以及SSDI在多大程度上促使更多的人选择体力强度高的职业。SSDI保证了残疾对生产力的冲击。利用健康与退休研究(HRS)和当前人口调查(CPS)的数据,我估计了一个具有异质代理和均衡效应的职业选择和退休的动态模型。我记录了蓝领和白领职业在健康和残疾下降对生产力的影响方面的差异,这影响到晚年的劳动力供应,并在生命周期模型的背景下影响职业决策。通过反事实的练习,我证明了蓝领工作相对于白领工作的额外残疾风险相当于一生消费的额外6个百分点的减少,而没有SSDI(保证了这种风险的一部分)将分别相当于蓝领和白领工作的消费减少12%和7%。此外,我发现SSDI的存在导致选择蓝领职业的人增加了3%,这与蓝领收入增加8%对职业选择的影响相当。然而,这种总体效应掩盖了选择风险厌恶程度较低的个人从事蓝领工作的重要性,以及对工资的均衡效应;在没有SSDI的情况下,对于最厌恶风险的人来说,选择蓝领职业的收入必须高出近15%。
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引用次数: 5
Do Payroll Taxes in the United States Create Bunching at Kink Points? 美国的工资税在拐点上造成了聚集吗?
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2689808
David Powell
Much of the literature on labor supply responsiveness to taxes studies the effects of payroll and income taxes together, usually using income tax changes to identify effects. There is less research on how individuals respond to payroll taxes specifically. Given the salience of the payroll tax relative to other income taxes, it is possible that taxpayers respond differentially than income tax elasticities may suggest. Using data from the Social Security Administration, I exploit two recent short-term changes in payroll taxes to study whether labor earnings responded. The Making Work Pay Tax Credit reduced the payroll tax by 6.2 percentage points up to $6,451 ($12,903 for couples) of earnings in 2009 and 2010. I test for bunching at this kink. In 2011, payroll taxes were reduced by 2 percentage points, changing the incentives to bunch at the taxable earnings maximum. While many papers on bunching must make assumptions on the distribution of earnings in the absence of taxes, an advantage of studying changes in payroll taxes is that it is possible to observe the distribution in different years under different tax regimes. I find evidence of bunching induced by the payroll tax changes. I estimate a tax elasticity of labor earnings of 0.08 at the taxable earnings maximum, suggests that policy proposals to raise or eliminate the payroll tax cap should consider labor supply behavioral responses to this policy. I also estimate larger responsiveness to the Making Work Pay Tax Credit.
许多关于劳动力供给对税收的反应性的文献都将工资税和所得税的影响放在一起研究,通常使用所得税的变化来确定影响。关于个人对工资税的具体反应的研究较少。鉴于工资税相对于其他所得税的显著性,纳税人的反应可能与所得税弹性所暗示的有所不同。我利用社会保障局(Social Security Administration)的数据,利用最近两次工资税的短期变化来研究劳动力收入是否有所反应。在2009年和2010年,“让工作得到回报的税收抵免”将工资税降低了6.2个百分点,最高可达6451美元(一对夫妇为12903美元)。我在这个扭结处测试聚束。2011年,工资税减少了2个百分点,将激励措施改为按应纳税收入的上限征税。虽然许多关于聚类的论文必须在没有税收的情况下对收入分配做出假设,但研究工资税变化的一个好处是,有可能观察到不同税收制度下不同年份的收入分配。我发现有证据表明工资税的变化引起了投资者的聚集。我估计劳动收入的税收弹性在应税收入的最大值为0.08,这表明提高或取消工资税上限的政策建议应该考虑劳动力供给对这一政策的行为反应。我还估计,对“让工作支付税收抵免”的反应会更大。
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引用次数: 0
Aging and Financial Decision Making 老龄化与财务决策
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2165564
K. Gamble, P. Boyle, Lei Yu, D. Bennett
This study examines how cognitive changes associated with aging impact the financial decision making capability of older Americans. We find that a decrease in cognition is associated with a decrease in financial literacy. Decreases in episodic memory and visuospatial ability are associated with a decrease in numeracy, and a decrease in semantic memory is associated with a decrease in financial knowledge. A decrease in cognition also predicts a drop in self-confidence in general, but importantly, it is not associated with a drop in confidence in managing one's own finances. Participants experiencing decreases in cognition do show an increased likelihood of getting help with financial decisions; however, many participants experiencing significant drops in cognition still do not get help.
本研究考察了与年龄增长相关的认知变化如何影响美国老年人的财务决策能力。我们发现认知能力的下降与金融知识的下降有关。情景记忆和视觉空间能力的下降与计算能力的下降有关,语义记忆的下降与金融知识的下降有关。认知能力的下降通常也预示着自信心的下降,但重要的是,这与管理个人财务的信心下降无关。认知能力下降的参与者在财务决策方面确实更有可能得到帮助;然而,许多认知能力明显下降的参与者仍然没有得到帮助。
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引用次数: 97
The Impact of Soda Sales Taxes on Consumption: Evidence from Scanner Data 汽水销售税对消费的影响:来自扫描仪数据的证据
Pub Date : 2014-03-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2407591
Francesca Colantuoni, C. Rojas
type="main" xml:id="coep12101-abs-0001"> Scientific evidence on the effect of sugar consumption on obesity has propelled policy makers in several states across the United States to propose the imposition of a tax on soft drinks sales. In this article, we look at the effect of two tax events: a 5.5% sales tax on soft drinks imposed by the state of Maine in 1991 and a 5% sales tax on soft drinks levied in Ohio in 2003. We investigate this question by using sales data collected by scanner devices in the two states, where soda taxes where enacted as well as on neighboring states. We employ a difference-in-difference matching estimator (DIDM) that, in our setting, permits the comparison among treatment and control groups based on brand identity. Results suggest that neither sales tax had a statistically significant impact on the consumption of soft drinks. This finding is robust to several alternative specifications . ( JEL D12, H22, C90, L66)
关于糖消费对肥胖影响的科学证据促使美国几个州的政策制定者提议对软饮料销售征税。在这篇文章中,我们来看看两个税收事件的影响:1991年缅因州对软饮料征收5.5%的销售税,2003年俄亥俄州对软饮料征收5%的销售税。我们通过使用两个州的扫描仪设备收集的销售数据来调查这个问题,这两个州的苏打税都是在邻近的州颁布的。我们采用差分匹配估计器(DIDM),在我们的设置中,允许在基于品牌标识的治疗组和对照组之间进行比较。结果表明,两种销售税对软饮料的消费都没有统计学上的显著影响。这一发现适用于几种可选规范。(jel 12, h22, c90, l66)
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引用次数: 24
Are Government Stimulus Packages Really that Harmful? An Analysis of the Underlying Information Structure 政府刺激计划真的那么有害吗?底层信息结构分析
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2341167
Pascal Terveer
The following paper analyzes the consequences of a government intervention in an economic environment where the households are unable to observe all economic shocks of interest. As it was recently presented in the literature, a government intervention that is designed to stabilize such an economy may actually be harmful. This effect is rooted in the households’ information set. Whenever the households are able to observe the government’s behavior, they may get additional information about the state of the economy and revise their decisions. This in turn, may lead to a more awkward equilibrium and thereby hurt the economy. However, this effect has, by now, only been highlighted in an economy without capital and a tight connection to the empirical literature. To fill this gap, we employ a New Keynesian model and allow for heterogeneous expectations. Our results suggest that a closer consideration of the empirical observations changes the results substantially. In particular, it is advisable to model the households’ heterogeneity more carefully, since it appears to be a major driver of recent results.
下面的论文分析了在家庭无法观察到所有利益经济冲击的经济环境中政府干预的后果。正如最近在文献中提出的那样,旨在稳定这种经济的政府干预实际上可能是有害的。这种效应的根源在于家庭的信息集。只要家庭能够观察到政府的行为,他们就可以获得有关经济状况的额外信息,从而修改他们的决定。反过来,这可能会导致更尴尬的平衡,从而损害经济。然而,到目前为止,这种影响只在一个没有资本的经济体中得到强调,并且与实证文献密切相关。为了填补这一空白,我们采用了新凯恩斯主义模型,并允许异质预期。我们的结果表明,更仔细地考虑经验观察结果会大大改变结果。特别是,建议更仔细地模拟家庭的异质性,因为它似乎是最近结果的主要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Treading Water: The Impact of High METRs on Working Families in Canada 踩水:高工资对加拿大工薪家庭的影响
Pub Date : 2013-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2303926
A. Laurin, F. Poschmann
Working families with children in Canada face high tax hurdles that could dissuade them from earning extra income, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Treading Water: The Impact of High METRs on Working Families in Canada,” authors Alexandre Laurin and Finn Poschmann find low-to- mid-income Canadians face taxes on incremental income generally higher than those faced by high-income families.
根据C.D. Howe研究所今天发布的一份报告,加拿大有孩子的工薪家庭面临着高税收障碍,这可能会阻止他们赚取额外收入。在《踩水:高收入对加拿大工薪家庭的影响》一书中,作者Alexandre Laurin和Finn Poschmann发现,中低收入加拿大人面临的增量收入税通常高于高收入家庭。
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引用次数: 10
Participation to Pension Funds in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Financial Literacy 意大利养老基金的参与:期望和金融知识的作用
Pub Date : 2013-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2259758
P. Zanghieri
This paper seeks to assess the role of expectations on pension income and financial literacy in the decision of joining a pension fund, using a large household survey for Italy. The results confirm past evidence on the role of income and education, and find a strong role played by financial literacy. Forward looking thinking about the sources of income after retirement and forming not overly optimistic expectations on replacement rate are tightly related to enrollment. Finally participation to pension funds is found to depend strongly on the industry of employment. The results provide further evidence for the role of public powers in enhancing participation by providing information and financial education.
本文旨在评估养老金收入和金融知识的预期在加入养老基金的决定中的作用,使用意大利的大型家庭调查。研究结果证实了过去关于收入和教育的作用的证据,并发现金融知识发挥了重要作用。对退休后收入来源的前瞻性思考和对替代率不过分乐观的预期与入学率密切相关。最后,发现养老基金的参与强烈依赖于就业行业。这些结果进一步证明了公共权力通过提供信息和金融教育来促进参与的作用。
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引用次数: 3
Mortgage Interest Deductions and Homeownership: An International Survey 抵押贷款利息扣除和房屋所有权:一项国际调查
Pub Date : 2013-03-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2002865
Steven C. Bourassa, D. Haurin, P. Hendershott, Martin Hoesli
The aim of this paper is to review the international evidence on the impacts of mortgage interest deductions on homeownership rates. The probability of becoming a homeowner is a function of the relative cost of owning and renting, borrowing constraints, permanent household income, and a set of taste variables. The relative cost of owning and renting is in part a function of house prices and the annual user cost of owner-occupied housing. Tax policies affect the user cost of owner-occupied housing and, in turn, the probability of becoming a homeowner. They also affect the price of housing due to capitalization effects. We draw on a number of empirical studies that have been conducted for several countries in North America, Europe, Australasia, and Asia. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to popular wisdom, the MID generally does not increase the ownership rate. This result is likely due to the fact that the MID is capitalized into house prices, especially where housing supply is inelastic.
本文的目的是审查国际证据抵押贷款利息扣除对住房拥有率的影响。成为房主的概率是拥有和租赁的相对成本、借贷限制、永久家庭收入和一组品味变量的函数。拥有和租赁的相对成本部分是房价和自住住房的年用户成本的函数。税收政策影响自有住房的用户成本,进而影响成为房主的可能性。由于资本化效应,它们也会影响住房价格。我们借鉴了在北美、欧洲、澳大拉西亚和亚洲的几个国家进行的一些实证研究。经验证据表明,与普遍看法相反,MID通常不会增加所有权。出现这种结果的原因很有可能是,特别是在住宅供应缺乏弹性的情况下,MID被资本化为房价。
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引用次数: 31
期刊
ERN: Household (Topic)
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