In this paper we re-examine the structure of internal migration flows in New Zealand. We use data on gross migration flows between the 39 main and secondary urban areas for the four intercensal periods between 1986 and 2006. We confirm that the gravity model – in which migration is inversely related to distance – fits the data well, and that the way in which distance is measured (travel time, road distance or straight-line distance) matters to some extent for the goodness of fit of the model. We also show that some forms of socioeconomic differences influence migration in the same way as distance. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the deterrence effect of distance on migration was increasing, at least until 2001. Improvements in connectivity through reduced travel time have not increased migration flows.
{"title":"Does Distance Still Matter For Internal Migration And, If So, How? Evidence From 1986 To 2006","authors":"Omoniyi B. Alimi, Davide Mare, J. Poot","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.3897","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.3897","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we re-examine the structure of internal migration flows in New Zealand. We use data on gross migration flows between the 39 main and secondary urban areas for the four intercensal periods between 1986 and 2006. We confirm that the gravity model – in which migration is inversely related to distance – fits the data well, and that the way in which distance is measured (travel time, road distance or straight-line distance) matters to some extent for the goodness of fit of the model. We also show that some forms of socioeconomic differences influence migration in the same way as distance. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the deterrence effect of distance on migration was increasing, at least until 2001. Improvements in connectivity through reduced travel time have not increased migration flows.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129493128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ageing of the work force in New Zealand is an important determinant of labour market dynamics. In addition to the median age and the proportion of workers in retirement age, the nature of occupations and health and financial security are also important determinants of participation and retirement. The baby boom generation has approached their retirement years and the age structure of the working age population has also significantly altered. Consequently, the retirement of older workers is expected to make-up an important source of new job openings over the coming decades. Estimating and forecasting likely future retirement rates by occupational groups is of considerable interest, and provides further insights into labour market dynamics. In this study, recent historical retirement rates for broad (3-digit) ANZSCO occupational groups were derived using an internationally accepted methodology known as the cohort component method, adapted to allow for some participation by older age groups. Occupational employment data by age extracted from the recently released 2013 Census was analysed along with the corresponding data from the 2006 Census to estimate the average retirement rates over the 2006-13 period. These rates are then used to project future retirement rates over the 2013-20 period for the same broad occupational groups. Projections were based on the Working Age Population projections for age groups and their associated participation rates.
{"title":"Ageing Of The Workforce: Effects On The Labour Market With Participation And Retirement","authors":"Ram SriRamaratnam, J. Williams, Xintao Zhao","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.3673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.3673","url":null,"abstract":"Ageing of the work force in New Zealand is an important determinant of labour market dynamics. In addition to the median age and the proportion of workers in retirement age, the nature of occupations and health and financial security are also important determinants of participation and retirement. The baby boom generation has approached their retirement years and the age structure of the working age population has also significantly altered. Consequently, the retirement of older workers is expected to make-up an important source of new job openings over the coming decades. Estimating and forecasting likely future retirement rates by occupational groups is of considerable interest, and provides further insights into labour market dynamics. In this study, recent historical retirement rates for broad (3-digit) ANZSCO occupational groups were derived using an internationally accepted methodology known as the cohort component method, adapted to allow for some participation by older age groups. Occupational employment data by age extracted from the recently released 2013 Census was analysed along with the corresponding data from the 2006 Census to estimate the average retirement rates over the 2006-13 period. These rates are then used to project future retirement rates over the 2013-20 period for the same broad occupational groups. Projections were based on the Working Age Population projections for age groups and their associated participation rates.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114329410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments.
{"title":"Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand","authors":"John R. Bryant, Kirsten Nissen","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.3672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.3672","url":null,"abstract":"Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":" 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113952186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In looking at statistics of the labour market, the labour force status categories are often considered as independent, but when expressed as proportions they are observations over a simplex of non-negative components summing to 1. This leads to serious deficiencies in the conventional tools of analysis, and a framework commonly referred to as compositional modelling has been developed to address them. This paper explores the application of these tools to labour force data and demonstrates simple consistent patterns between job search (unemployment) and current participation levels across both aggregate and age and gender sub populations. Unlike previous uses of composition models in labour market studies we use a simple transform with a direct interpretation for our analysis.
{"title":"Measuring Unemployment: A Composition Model","authors":"F. Jackson","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2218","url":null,"abstract":"In looking at statistics of the labour market, the labour force status categories are often considered as independent, but when expressed as proportions they are observations over a simplex of non-negative components summing to 1. This leads to serious deficiencies in the conventional tools of analysis, and a framework commonly referred to as compositional modelling has been developed to address them. This paper explores the application of these tools to labour force data and demonstrates simple consistent patterns between job search (unemployment) and current participation levels across both aggregate and age and gender sub populations. Unlike previous uses of composition models in labour market studies we use a simple transform with a direct interpretation for our analysis.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130129867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Immigrants’ location choices can play an important role in determining their employment outcomes. While it is generally accepted that new immigrants may initially face disadvantages in finding a job in their host country, a less-studied factor is the role of location choice, which includes major existing ethnic and cultural capital (networks and resources of the ethnic enclave) on reducing barriers to employment. In this paper, we examine the impact of ethnic enclaves on the location choices and employment outcomes of recent immigrants to New Zealand, a country where immigrants comprise a significant part of the labour force. We apply the new longitudinal individual-level Statistics New Zealand data, the Longitudinal Immigration Survey: New Zealand (LisNZ), which allows an in-depth analysis based on a wide range of important variables. We find that stronger ethnic networks significantly influence the settlement decisions of recent immigrants and assist their employment integration. We also find that, as hypothesised, migrant networks have a greater impact on the settlement decisions of recent migrants from non-Englishspeaking countries compared with the immigrants from English-speaking backgrounds. Our empirical evidence strongly suggests that existing ethnic enclaves play a significant positive role in immigrants’ employment integration in New Zealand. he location choices and employment outcomes of immigrants are important factors that influence their post-migration integration and economic success. An important but less studied factor that also influences these outcomes is the strength of social networks and resources that immigrants can access within broader ethnic diasporas.
{"title":"Immigrants' Location Choices, Geographic Concentration, and Employment in New Zealand","authors":"Xingang Wang, S. Maani","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2224","url":null,"abstract":"Immigrants’ location choices can play an important role in determining their employment outcomes. While it is generally accepted that new immigrants may initially face disadvantages in finding a job in their host country, a less-studied factor is the role of location choice, which includes major existing ethnic and cultural capital (networks and resources of the ethnic enclave) on reducing barriers to employment. In this paper, we examine the impact of ethnic enclaves on the location choices and employment outcomes of recent immigrants to New Zealand, a country where immigrants comprise a significant part of the labour force. We apply the new longitudinal individual-level Statistics New Zealand data, the Longitudinal Immigration Survey: New Zealand (LisNZ), which allows an in-depth analysis based on a wide range of important variables. We find that stronger ethnic networks significantly influence the settlement decisions of recent immigrants and assist their employment integration. We also find that, as hypothesised, migrant networks have a greater impact on the settlement decisions of recent migrants from non-Englishspeaking countries compared with the immigrants from English-speaking backgrounds. Our empirical evidence strongly suggests that existing ethnic enclaves play a significant positive role in immigrants’ employment integration in New Zealand. he location choices and employment outcomes of immigrants are important factors that influence their post-migration integration and economic success. An important but less studied factor that also influences these outcomes is the strength of social networks and resources that immigrants can access within broader ethnic diasporas.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129264424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
63.7% of women are now in some form of paid employment in New Zealand, which is in line with the OECD average of 65%. However, of those women, approximately a third in part-time paid employment and women make up over two-thirds of all part-time workers. One of the most cited reasons for women’s limited participation in, or absence from, the labour market is the cost and availability of childcare. In New Zealand, as in many other countries, mothers still undertake the vast majority of care for children. This paper examines the childcare situation in New Zealand. Taking a broad perspective of what is captured by the term ‘childcare’, it outlines the various types of government support currently provided to children up to age 13, and summarises the total cost of funding. The purpose of the paper is to collate information about the range of services provided by the government which incorporate an element of care. This information can be analysed by academics and policy makers to determine whether the services currently provided are efficient and effective, and meets the needs of parents. The paper also raises two issues for further consideration, which it does not address itself. Firstly, the various mechanisms for government support, in terms of demand-led and supply-side funding, and whether they should be targeted or universal. Secondly, the types of childcare which are not government funded – the informal childcare provided by family, particularly grandparents and older siblings, and friends. These areas may be of relevant future research, particularly if change to the current situation is desired.
{"title":"Women In Paid Employment – The Care Factor","authors":"S. Morrissey","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2220","url":null,"abstract":"63.7% of women are now in some form of paid employment in New Zealand, which is in line with the OECD average of 65%. However, of those women, approximately a third in part-time paid employment and women make up over two-thirds of all part-time workers. One of the most cited reasons for women’s limited participation in, or absence from, the labour market is the cost and availability of childcare. In New Zealand, as in many other countries, mothers still undertake the vast majority of care for children. This paper examines the childcare situation in New Zealand. Taking a broad perspective of what is captured by the term ‘childcare’, it outlines the various types of government support currently provided to children up to age 13, and summarises the total cost of funding. The purpose of the paper is to collate information about the range of services provided by the government which incorporate an element of care. This information can be analysed by academics and policy makers to determine whether the services currently provided are efficient and effective, and meets the needs of parents. The paper also raises two issues for further consideration, which it does not address itself. Firstly, the various mechanisms for government support, in terms of demand-led and supply-side funding, and whether they should be targeted or universal. Secondly, the types of childcare which are not government funded – the informal childcare provided by family, particularly grandparents and older siblings, and friends. These areas may be of relevant future research, particularly if change to the current situation is desired.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121421404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the last two years, a campaign has been running to pay employees a “living wage” of $18.40/hr (recently increased to $18.80/hr). Using cross-tabulations of data from the Household Economic Survey 2010/11, this work looks at who in New Zealand is currently receiving wages below this level, by age, family type, education level, industry, gender, and ethnicity. This group has proportionately higher numbers of people who are under 30, or who are single adults without dependents. It does not take into account labour supply and demand effects, nor does it consider wage relativity effects on those currently earning above the living wage. We also calculate the increase in disposable income for a variety of different family types if they were to increase their wages from the minimum wage to the living wage, and find that those that are currently receiving the most government assistance (usually families with dependent children) benefit the least from this increase due to the abatement of that assistance.
{"title":"Analysis Of The Proposed $18.40 Living Wage","authors":"A. King","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2219","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last two years, a campaign has been running to pay employees a “living wage” of $18.40/hr (recently increased to $18.80/hr). Using cross-tabulations of data from the Household Economic Survey 2010/11, this work looks at who in New Zealand is currently receiving wages below this level, by age, family type, education level, industry, gender, and ethnicity. This group has proportionately higher numbers of people who are under 30, or who are single adults without dependents. It does not take into account labour supply and demand effects, nor does it consider wage relativity effects on those currently earning above the living wage. We also calculate the increase in disposable income for a variety of different family types if they were to increase their wages from the minimum wage to the living wage, and find that those that are currently receiving the most government assistance (usually families with dependent children) benefit the least from this increase due to the abatement of that assistance.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128788120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research proposes a new theory for explaining career progression and guiding individuals to chart their career pathways. It focusses tightly on how one thinks about and manages the range of activities involved in making their career. The study examines the career journeys of accounting professionals in mainstream firms and academia in New Zealand. A qualitative approach was used for collecting data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 participants. Analysis used NVivo software. The exploration revealed a continuum of career clarity with respect to formulation of career goals. Only eight participants seemed to have perfect clarity about their initial goals, whereas twenty-four participants have clarity with regard to current and future career goals. The main influences were the deliberate efforts of career crafting, the role of family and organization. Characteristics of crafters are identified, and scope for future research is discussed.
{"title":"Hazy “Career Clarity” Can Career Crafting Bring It into Focus?","authors":"Mohini A Sukhapure, David T. Cohen","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2208","url":null,"abstract":"This research proposes a new theory for explaining career progression and guiding individuals to chart their career pathways. It focusses tightly on how one thinks about and manages the range of activities involved in making their career. The study examines the career journeys of accounting professionals in mainstream firms and academia in New Zealand. A qualitative approach was used for collecting data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 participants. Analysis used NVivo software. The exploration revealed a continuum of career clarity with respect to formulation of career goals. Only eight participants seemed to have perfect clarity about their initial goals, whereas twenty-four participants have clarity with regard to current and future career goals. The main influences were the deliberate efforts of career crafting, the role of family and organization. Characteristics of crafters are identified, and scope for future research is discussed.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125704959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Increasing the economic contribution of women who are at risk of having low lifetime incomes is a priority of the Ministry of Women's Affairs. Using the Māori and Pacific Trades Training initiative as a policy entry-point, this paper re-examines data related to this target group and explores the implications of this ‘new’ data to contribute to improving the economic independence of Māori and Pasifika women with low or no qualifications. Drawing on the findings of the E Tu Ake! Stand Tall and Proud report released by the Ministry for Women, the paper extends those findings to better direct us as policy makers and influencers within the broader policy-workforce interface and in our discussions with employers to more relevantly support these women.
{"title":"E Tu Ake! Investment In Wāhine Māori And Pasifika Women","authors":"Riripeti Reedy","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2211","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing the economic contribution of women who are at risk of having low lifetime incomes is a priority of the Ministry of Women's Affairs. Using the Māori and Pacific Trades Training initiative as a policy entry-point, this paper re-examines data related to this target group and explores the implications of this ‘new’ data to contribute to improving the economic independence of Māori and Pasifika women with low or no qualifications. Drawing on the findings of the E Tu Ake! Stand Tall and Proud report released by the Ministry for Women, the paper extends those findings to better direct us as policy makers and influencers within the broader policy-workforce interface and in our discussions with employers to more relevantly support these women.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128161553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the propensity of young mothers aged 15 to 24 to be not in employment, education and training. Not all young mothers are out of labour force and many are involved in education. Additionally, those that are NEET may not be by choice. We identify areas for further investigation and policy response.
{"title":"NEET by choice? Investigating the links between motherhood and NEET status","authors":"Seán Molloy, Deborah L. Potter","doi":"10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26686/LEW.V0I0.2210","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the propensity of young mothers aged 15 to 24 to be not in employment, education and training. Not all young mothers are out of labour force and many are involved in education. Additionally, those that are NEET may not be by choice. We identify areas for further investigation and policy response.","PeriodicalId":130683,"journal":{"name":"Labour, Employment and Work in New Zealand","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125135071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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