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Advances in monitoring and modelling of river ice processes 河流冰过程的监测和模拟研究进展
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.106
Prabin Rokaya, Yuntong She, Brandi Newton, Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
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引用次数: 0
A practical approach for numerical modeling of a complex and data-limited hydrological system 一个复杂和数据有限的水文系统数值模拟的实用方法
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.048
Bahaa-eldin A. Rahim, Ismail Yusoff
Abstract By their nature, wetlands represent an ecosystem base for many concurrent heterogeneous interactions, where the mission of numerical modeling requires a wide range of consistent and reliable datasets from various sources, spatially and temporally. Such a mission usually collides with the existence of tremendous missing in time-series dataset(s). In this context, MIKE SHE was used to construct an integrated surface–subsurface flow model for the Paya Indah wetland in Malaysia where huge gaps exist in the historical datasets of water level and flow rate. To calibrate and validate the model to a satisfactory level, a tri-criteria simulation approach was applied to overcome the occasional missing values in these datasets. This goal was accomplished by calibrating the surface water level and channel flow while simultaneously matching the steady-state subsurface portion of the system wherever water table depth data allowed. Quantitatively, the integrated model scored the highest values of R (0.765 − 0.927) and CE (0.748 − 0.828) during the validation. However, large RMSE values were calculated for the flow rate during calibration at SWL2 (outlet; 0.766) and during validation at Langat River (0.780). This bias was attributed to the low or occasional absence of variation in the historical time-series datasets necessary for the simulation process.
就其性质而言,湿地代表了许多并发异质相互作用的生态系统基础,其中数值模拟的任务需要来自不同来源的广泛一致和可靠的数据集,包括空间和时间。这样的任务通常与时间序列数据集中存在的巨大缺失相冲突。在此背景下,利用MIKE SHE构建了马来西亚巴耶英达湿地的地表-地下综合流量模型,该湿地的水位和流量历史数据集存在巨大缺口。为了将模型校准和验证到令人满意的水平,采用三标准模拟方法来克服这些数据集中偶尔缺失的值。这一目标是通过校准地表水位和通道流量来实现的,同时在地下水位数据允许的情况下,匹配系统的稳态地下部分。在定量上,综合模型在验证期间的R(0.765−0.927)和CE(0.748−0.828)得分最高。然而,在SWL2(出口;0.766)和在Langat River验证期间(0.780)。这种偏差归因于模拟过程所需的历史时间序列数据集的低变化或偶尔没有变化。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling probabilistic-based 1D riverbed elevation estimation model due to uncertainties in runoff and sediment-related factors 建模基于概率的一维河床高程估算模型,考虑径流和泥沙相关因素的不确定性
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.097
Shiang-Jen Wu, Chia-Yuan Tsai, Keh-Chia Yeh
Abstract This study aims to develop a probabilistic model to quantify the reliability of estimating riverbed elevations due to the uncertainties in the runoff and sediment-related factors (named PM_MBEE_1D); the above uncertainties are quantified by reproducing a considerable number of runoff-related and sediment-related factors via the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation approach. Using a sizeable number of simulated uncertainty factors, the proposed PM_MBEE_1D model is developed by coupling the rainfall–runoff model (SAC-SMA) and 1D sediment transport simulation model (CCHE1D) with the uncertainty/risk analysis advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) method as well as the logistic regression analysis. Validated by the historical data in the Jhuosdhuei River watershed, the proposed PM_MBEE_1D model could efficiently and successfully capture the spatial and temporal changes in the estimated riverbed elevations (i.e., scouring and siltation) due to the uncertainties in the river runoff and sediment with a high accuracy (nearly 0.983). Also, using the proposed PM_MBEE_1D model with given runoff and sediment factors under a desired reliability, the probabilistic-based riverbed elevations could accordingly be estimated as a reference to watershed treatment and management plan.
摘要:本研究旨在建立一个概率模型(命名为PM_MBEE_1D),以量化由于径流和泥沙相关因素的不确定性而估算河床高程的可靠性;通过多元蒙特卡罗模拟方法再现大量与径流和泥沙有关的因素,对上述不确定性进行了量化。利用大量模拟的不确定性因子,将降雨径流模型(SAC-SMA)和一维输沙模拟模型(CCHE1D)与不确定性/风险分析高级一阶二阶矩(AFOSM)方法以及logistic回归分析相结合,建立PM_MBEE_1D模型。通过对焦化河流域历史数据的验证,PM_MBEE_1D模型能够有效、成功地捕捉到由于径流和泥沙的不确定性所导致的河床高程(即冲淤)的时空变化,精度接近0.983。在一定的可靠度下,利用PM_MBEE_1D模型,可以估算出基于概率的河床高程,为流域治理和管理规划提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Mechanisms of hydrological evolution in human-influenced basins 人类影响盆地的水文演化机制
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.104
Liliang Ren, Shanshui Yuan, Momcilo Markus, Natalie Teale
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引用次数: 0
2021 UK floods: event summaries and reflections from the Flood Forecasting Centre 2021年英国洪水:洪水预报中心的事件总结和反思
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.124
Charles Pilling, Jon Millard, Julia Perez, Russel Turner, Anthony Duke, Katie Egan
Abstract Flooding in 2021 has highlighted the increased risk to national resilience. This is against a backdrop of the UK climate projected to become more extreme over the next few decades. This paper considers the notable river and surface water flood events within England and Wales during 2021 and examines the performance of the Flood Forecasting Centre in highlighting the flood risk to our customers. We reflect on team debriefs as well as feedback and surveys from our customers. We distil our learnings and make connections with improvements in our underpinning science, forecasting tools, products and services. Finally, we highlight challenges associated with surface water flooding and suggest how we may collectively start to overcome these.
2021年的洪水凸显了国家抵御能力面临的风险增加。这是在英国气候预计在未来几十年将变得更加极端的背景下发生的。本文考虑了2021年英格兰和威尔士境内值得注意的河流和地表水洪水事件,并检查了洪水预报中心在向客户强调洪水风险方面的表现。我们对团队汇报以及客户的反馈和调查进行反思。我们提炼我们的知识,并将其与基础科学、预测工具、产品和服务的改进联系起来。最后,我们强调了与地表水驱相关的挑战,并建议我们如何共同开始克服这些挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Analytical and numerical solutions of radially symmetric aquifer thermal energy storage problems 径向对称含水层蓄热问题的解析解与数值解
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.214
Zerihun Kinfe Birhanu, Nils-Otto Kitterød, Harald E. Krogstad, Anne Kværnø
Abstract Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems offer reduced energy costs, lower carbon emissions, and increased energy resilience. The feasibility, however, depends on several factors and require usually optimization. We study an ATES system with injection and extraction wells (cf. graphical abstract). The purpose of the investigation was to calculate the recovery factor of an ATES system with a cyclic repetition of injection and pumping. In the paper, we discuss analytical and numerical radial solutions of differential equations for heat transport in water-saturated porous media. A similar solution was obtained for a 2-D-horizontal confined aquifer with a constant radial flow. Numerical solutions were derived by using a high-resolution Lagrangian approach suppressing spurious oscillations and artificial dispersion. The numerical solution and the analytical solutions give consistent results and match each other well. The solutions describe instantaneous and delayed heat transfer between fluid and solid, as well as time-varying water flow. In hydrological terms, these solutions are relevant for a wide range of problems where groundwater reservoirs are utilized for extraction and storage (namely, irrigation; water supply; geothermal extraction).
含水层热能储存(ATES)系统可以降低能源成本,降低碳排放,提高能源弹性。然而,可行性取决于几个因素,通常需要优化。我们研究了一个带有注抽井的ATES系统(参见图解摘要)。研究的目的是通过循环重复注入和泵送来计算ATES系统的采收率。本文讨论了饱和水多孔介质中热传递微分方程的解析解和数值解。对于径向流恒定的二维水平承压含水层,也得到了类似的解。数值解采用高分辨率拉格朗日方法,抑制杂散振荡和人为色散。数值解与解析解结果一致,吻合良好。这些解描述了流体和固体之间的瞬时和延迟传热,以及随时间变化的水流。在水文方面,这些解决办法与利用地下水水库进行提取和储存(即灌溉;供水;地热提取)。
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引用次数: 0
Study of temporal changes in the hydrographic network of small mountain rivers in the Ile Alatau, Kazakhstan 哈萨克斯坦阿拉托岛山地小河流水文网的时间变化研究
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.305
Kasym Duskayev, Ainur Mussina, Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri, Zhanara Zhanabayeva, Marzhan Tursyngali, María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero
Abstract The article presents the outcomes of an assessment of hydrographic network changes within the Almaty city, utilizing geographic information system (GIS) technology and Earth remote sensing data. Two gauge stations were selected along the main rivers within the Almaty city. To identify distinctive alterations in these rivers, hydrological data series encompassing the maximum runoff from 1970 to 2021 were collected and subjected to statistical analysis. Differential integral curves were constructed to pinpoint periods corresponding to peak and trough runoff levels. For each of these identified periods, the processing of satellite imagery allowed for the computation of meandering coefficients for the river channels. Additionally, refinements were made to the slope values of the rivers during these same timeframes, and connectivity graphs were established to elucidate the relationship between slope and liquid runoff for each period. The analysis encompassed an assessment of the impact of anthropogenic factors on both artificial and natural bodies of water while also considering shifts in the boundaries of the Almaty city. The findings derived from this study have practical applications in the planning and design of water supply systems and in the implementation of measures aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of anthropogenic factors on water bodies.
本文介绍了利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术和地球遥感数据对阿拉木图市水文网络变化进行评估的结果。在阿拉木图市内的主要河流沿线选择了两个测量站。为了确定这些河流的独特变化,收集了包括1970年至2021年最大径流在内的水文数据系列,并进行了统计分析。构建了微分积分曲线,以确定与峰值和低谷径流水平相对应的时期。对于每一个确定的时期,卫星图像的处理允许计算河道的蜿蜒系数。此外,对这些时间段内河流的坡度值进行了细化,并建立了连通性图,以阐明每个时间段的坡度与液体径流之间的关系。分析包括评估人为因素对人工和自然水体的影响,同时也考虑到阿拉木图城市边界的变化。这项研究的结果在供水系统的规划和设计以及旨在减轻人为因素对水体的不利影响的措施的执行方面具有实际应用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of change in terrestrial water storage for Abbay River Basin, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚阿贝河流域陆地储水量变化的估算
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.119
Agegnehu Kitanbo Yoshe
Abstract Access to freshwater resources has become more limited. Correspondingly, water monitoring methods in sensitive or critical areas interims of terrestrial water storage are becoming increasingly important. The monitoring of the water storage in this area, using appropriate methods and datasets, is highly effective in preventing possible future water crises. This paper aims to estimate terrestrial water storage of the Abbay River Basin with available data and tools where hydro climatological studies are scarce due to limited observation. The data obtained from Global Land Assimilation System (GLDAS), gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and TerraClimate were used for the analysis of terrestrial water storage in the river basin. The result shows that there was a varying trend of terrestrial water storage for the study time. We have observed water shortages during the dry season and surplus water during the wet season. The monitoring of changes in terrestrial water storage is crucial for optimal water resource utilization and our results confirm the major role of such monitoring in decision-making processes and management.
淡水资源的获取变得越来越有限。相应地,对敏感或关键地区的监测方法也变得越来越重要。使用适当的方法和数据集对该地区的储水量进行监测,对于预防未来可能出现的水危机非常有效。本文旨在利用现有数据和工具估算Abbay河流域的陆地储水量,而水文气候学研究由于观测有限而缺乏。利用全球陆地同化系统(GLDAS)、重力恢复与气候试验(GRACE)和TerraClimate数据对流域陆地储水量进行了分析。结果表明,在研究时间内,陆地储水量呈变化趋势。我们观察到旱季缺水,雨季水过剩。监测陆地储水量的变化对优化水资源利用至关重要,我们的研究结果证实了这种监测在决策过程和管理中的主要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of anticipatory humanitarian cash assistance to households forecasted to experience extreme flooding: evidence from Bangladesh 预期人道主义现金援助对预计遭受极端洪水的家庭的影响:来自孟加拉国的证据
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.111
Clemens Gros, Andrea Pronti, Khairul Sheikh, Ahmadul Hassan, Mohammad Shahjahan
Abstract The 2020 monsoon floods in Bangladesh were among the most severe and protracted in decades. Instead of waiting for disaster to strike, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society used impact-based forecast data to reach nearly 3,800 vulnerable households along the Jamuna River with a one-off unconditional cash transfer of BDT 4,500 (about $53) before peak flooding in July 2020. Anticipatory action to help at-risk populations avoid or mitigate extreme weather event impacts has become widely used by governments and humanitarian organisations worldwide. However, robust evaluations of the effectiveness of forecast-based assistance are limited. This assessment follows a quasi-experimental approach, drawing on survey data from a sample of cash recipients and equally vulnerable and flood-affected households that were not reached by BDRCS before the flood. Our analysis finds robust statistical evidence that the intervention was effective in helping households evacuate the flood-affected area, protecting personal health and well-being, and safeguarding people's productive assets and livestock. It was also effective in enabling beneficiaries to avoid taking on high-interest loans and selling valuable assets during and after the flood. The intervention does not appear to have helped cash recipients avoid food-based coping mechanisms or regain their productive capacity sooner after the flood.
2020年孟加拉国季风洪水是几十年来最严重和最持久的洪水之一。孟加拉国红新月会没有坐等灾难来袭,而是利用基于影响的预测数据,在2020年7月洪水达到峰值之前,向贾穆纳河沿岸近3800户脆弱家庭提供了一次性无条件现金援助,金额为4500泰铢(约合53美元)。帮助高危人群避免或减轻极端天气事件影响的预期行动已被世界各国政府和人道主义组织广泛采用。然而,对基于预测的援助的有效性的有力评价是有限的。这项评估采用了一种准实验方法,利用了来自现金接受者和同样脆弱和受洪水影响的家庭样本的调查数据,这些家庭在洪水发生前没有得到BDRCS的帮助。我们的分析发现有力的统计证据表明,干预措施在帮助受灾地区的家庭撤离、保护个人健康和福祉以及保护人们的生产性资产和牲畜方面是有效的。它还有效地使受益人避免在洪水期间和之后承担高息贷款和出售有价值的资产。这种干预似乎并没有帮助现金接受者避开以粮食为基础的应对机制,也没有帮助他们在洪水过后更快地恢复生产能力。
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引用次数: 0
Developing synthetic sewer pipe system for data-scarce domains in application for urban flood modeling 城市洪水建模中数据稀缺领域的综合下水管道系统开发
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.066
Lea Dasallas, Hyunuk An, Seungsoo Lee
Abstract In urban flood modeling, the accuracy of surface and subsurface flow calculations greatly depends on the parameterization of the drainage system. Incorporating the influence of the sewer pipe system is, therefore, integral to accurately simulating urban inundation during short-duration rainfall events. However, obtaining comprehensive data on sewer systems in developing countries is currently challenging. To mitigate this situation, we propose a method for developing a synthetic sewer network to supplement the representation of the sewer system in urban flood models, particularly in data-scarce domains. The model implements the concept of shallow water equation for surface flow and a 1D slot model for pipe flows with an interaction equation between them. We compare case studies with and without discharge interaction between the surface and hypothetical sewer system for the 2020 flood event in an urban subcatchment within the Marikina Basin, Philippines. Results show that the synthetic sewer pipe integration can capture the urban flood propagation more appropriately. Information such as flood depth and pipe flow discharge can aid in identifying flood-prone areas where sewer system parameters may require modifications. The proposed method can be used as an alternative to performing high-resolution urban flood simulations with limited availability of sewer network data.
在城市洪水建模中,地表和地下流量计算的准确性在很大程度上取决于排水系统的参数化。因此,考虑污水管道系统的影响对于准确模拟短时间降雨事件下的城市淹没是不可或缺的。然而,获取发展中国家下水道系统的全面数据目前具有挑战性。为了缓解这种情况,我们提出了一种开发合成下水道网络的方法,以补充城市洪水模型中下水道系统的表示,特别是在数据稀缺的领域。该模型实现了表面流的浅水方程和管道流的一维槽模型的概念,并建立了它们之间的相互作用方程。我们比较了2020年菲律宾马里基纳盆地城市子集水区洪水事件中地表和假设下水道系统之间有无排放相互作用的案例研究。结果表明,综合污水管道集成能较好地捕捉城市洪水的传播过程。诸如洪水深度和管道流量等信息可以帮助确定可能需要修改下水道系统参数的洪水易发地区。所提出的方法可以作为在污水管网数据有限的情况下进行高分辨率城市洪水模拟的替代方法。
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引用次数: 0
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Hydrology Research
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