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Deep Learning for Systemic Risk Measures 系统性风险度量的深度学习
Pub Date : 2022-07-02 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561669
Yichen Feng, Ming Min, J. Fouque
The aim of this paper is to study a new methodological framework for systemic risk measures by applying deep learning method as a tool to compute the optimal strategy of capital allocations. Under this new framework, systemic risk measures can be interpreted as the minimal amount of cash that secures the aggregated system by allocating capital to the single institutions before aggregating the individual risks. This problem has no explicit solution except in very limited situations. Deep learning is increasingly receiving attention in financial modelings and risk management and we propose our deep learning based algorithms to solve both the primal and dual problems of the risk measures, and thus to learn the fair risk allocations. In particular, our method for the dual problem involves the training philosophy inspired by the well-known Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) approach and a newly designed direct estimation of Radon-Nikodym derivative. We close the paper with substantial numerical studies of the subject and provide interpretations of the risk allocations associated to the systemic risk measures. In the particular case of exponential preferences, numerical experiments demonstrate excellent performance of the proposed algorithm, when compared with the optimal explicit solution as a benchmark.
本文的目的是通过应用深度学习方法作为计算资本配置最优策略的工具,研究一个新的系统性风险度量方法框架。在这个新框架下,系统风险措施可以被解释为在汇总单个风险之前,通过向单个机构分配资本来确保总体系统安全的最小现金量。除了在非常有限的情况下,这个问题没有明确的解决办法。深度学习在金融建模和风险管理中受到越来越多的关注,我们提出了基于深度学习的算法来解决风险度量的原初问题和对偶问题,从而学习公平的风险分配。特别地,我们的对偶问题方法涉及到受著名的生成对抗网络(GAN)方法启发的训练哲学和新设计的Radon-Nikodym导数的直接估计。在论文的最后,我们对该主题进行了大量的数值研究,并对与系统性风险措施相关的风险分配进行了解释。在指数偏好的特殊情况下,数值实验证明了该算法的优异性能,并与最优显式解作为基准进行了比较。
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引用次数: 2
Differential Liquidity Provision in Uniswap v3 and Implications for Contract Design✱ Uniswap v3中的差异流动性提供及其对合同设计的影响
Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561775
Z. Fan, F. J. Cossío, B. Altschuler, He Sun, Xintong Wang, D. Parkes
Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) provide a means for users to trade pairs of assets on-chain without the need of a trusted third party to effectuate a trade. Amongst these, constant function market maker (CFMM) DEXs such as Uniswap handle the most volume of trades between ERC-20 tokens. With the introduction of Uniswap v3, liquidity providers are given the option to differentially allocate liquidity to be used for trades that occur within specific price intervals. In this paper, we formalize the profit and loss that liquidity providers can earn when providing specific liquidity positions to a contract. With this in hand, we are able to compute optimal liquidity allocations for liquidity providers who hold beliefs over how prices evolve over time. Ultimately, we use this tool to shed light on the design question regarding how v3 contracts should partition price space for permissible liquidity allocations. Our results show that a richer space of potential partitions can simultaneously benefit both liquidity providers and traders.
去中心化交易所(DEXs)为用户提供了一种交易链上资产对的手段,而不需要可信的第三方来实现交易。其中,恒定功能做市商(CFMM) DEXs(如Uniswap)处理ERC-20代币之间的交易量最大。随着Uniswap v3的引入,流动性提供者可以选择为特定价格区间内发生的交易分配不同的流动性。在本文中,我们形式化了流动性提供者在为合约提供特定流动性头寸时可以获得的盈亏。有了这个,我们就能够计算出流动性提供者的最佳流动性配置,他们相信价格会随着时间的推移而变化。最后,我们使用这个工具来阐明有关v3合约应该如何为允许的流动性分配划分价格空间的设计问题。我们的研究结果表明,更丰富的潜在分区空间可以同时使流动性提供者和交易者受益。
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引用次数: 18
Offline Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Pricing of Consumer Credit 基于离线深度强化学习的消费信贷动态定价
Pub Date : 2022-03-06 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561682
Raad Khraishi, Ramin Okhrati
We introduce a method for pricing consumer credit using recent advances in offline deep reinforcement learning. This approach relies on a static dataset and as opposed to commonly used pricing approaches it requires no assumptions on the functional form of demand. Using both real and synthetic data on consumer credit applications, we demonstrate that our approach using the conservative Q-Learning algorithm is capable of learning an effective personalized pricing policy without any online interaction or price experimentation. In particular, using historical data on online auto loan applications we estimate an increase in expected profit of 21% with a less than 15% average change in prices relative to the original pricing policy.
我们介绍了一种利用离线深度强化学习的最新进展为消费者信贷定价的方法。这种方法依赖于静态数据集,与常用的定价方法相反,它不需要对需求的功能形式进行假设。使用消费者信贷应用的真实和合成数据,我们证明了我们使用保守Q-Learning算法的方法能够在没有任何在线交互或价格实验的情况下学习有效的个性化定价策略。特别是,使用在线汽车贷款申请的历史数据,我们估计预期利润增长21%,相对于原始定价政策的平均价格变化小于15%。
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引用次数: 2
Sequential asset ranking in nonstationary time series 非平稳时间序列中的顺序资产排序
Pub Date : 2022-02-24 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561666
Gabriel Borrageiro, Nikan B. Firoozye, P. Barucca
We extend the research into cross-sectional momentum trading strategies. Our main result is our novel ranking algorithm, the naive Bayes asset ranker (nbar), which we use to select subsets of assets to trade from the S&P 500 index. We perform feature representation transfer from radial basis function networks to a curds and whey (caw) multivariate regression model that takes advantage of the correlations between the response variables to improve predictive accuracy. The nbar ranks this regression output by forecasting the one-step-ahead sequential posterior probability that individual assets will be ranked higher than other portfolio constituents. Earlier algorithms, such as the weighted majority, deal with nonstationarity by ensuring the weights assigned to each expert never dip below a minimum threshold without ever increasing weights again. Our ranking algorithm allows experts who previously performed poorly to have increased weights when they start performing well. Our algorithm outperforms a strategy that would hold the long-only S&P 500 index with hindsight, despite the index appreciating by 205% during the test period. It also outperforms a regress-then-rank baseline, the caw model.
我们将研究扩展到横截面动量交易策略。我们的主要成果是我们的新颖排名算法,朴素贝叶斯资产排名(nbar),我们使用它从标准普尔500指数中选择要交易的资产子集。我们将特征表示从径向基函数网络转移到凝乳和乳清(caw)多元回归模型,该模型利用响应变量之间的相关性来提高预测精度。nbar通过预测单个资产排名高于其他投资组合成分的前一步顺序后验概率,对回归输出进行排名。早期的算法,如加权多数算法,通过确保分配给每个专家的权重不会低于最小阈值而不会再次增加权重来处理非平稳性。我们的排名算法允许以前表现不佳的专家在开始表现良好时增加权重。尽管标普500指数在测试期间升值了205%,但我们的算法表现优于事后持有该指数的策略。它也优于回归-排名基线,即法律模型。
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引用次数: 0
Collusion Resistant Federated Learning with Oblivious Distributed Differential Privacy 基于遗忘分布式差分隐私的抗合谋联邦学习
Pub Date : 2022-02-20 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561754
David Byrd, Vaikkunth Mugunthan, Antigoni Polychroniadou, T. Balch
Federated learning enables a population of distributed clients to jointly train a shared machine learning model with the assistance of a central server. The finance community has shown interest in its potential to allow inter-firm and cross-silo collaborative models for problems of common interest (e.g. fraud detection), even when customer data use is heavily regulated. Prior works on federated learning have employed cryptographic techniques to keep individual client model parameters private even when the central server is not trusted. However, there is an important gap in the literature: efficient protection against attacks in which other parties collude to expose an honest client’s model parameters, and therefore potentially protected customer data. We aim to close this collusion gap by presenting an efficient mechanism based on oblivious distributed differential privacy that is the first to protect against such client collusion, including the “Sybil” attack in which a server generates or selects compromised client devices to gain additional information. We leverage this novel privacy mechanism to construct an improved secure federated learning protocol and prove the security of that protocol. We conclude with empirical analysis of the protocol’s execution speed, learning accuracy, and privacy performance on two data sets within a realistic simulation of 5,000 distributed network clients.
联邦学习使分布式客户机能够在中央服务器的帮助下联合训练共享的机器学习模型。即使在客户数据使用受到严格监管的情况下,金融界也对其潜力表示出兴趣,即允许跨公司和跨孤岛协作模型解决共同关心的问题(例如欺诈检测)。先前关于联邦学习的工作使用了加密技术来保持单个客户端模型参数的私密性,即使在中央服务器不受信任的情况下也是如此。然而,在文献中有一个重要的空白:有效地防止攻击,其中其他各方串通暴露诚实客户的模型参数,因此可能保护客户数据。我们的目标是通过提出一种基于遗忘分布式差异隐私的有效机制来缩小这种共谋差距,这是第一个防止此类客户端共谋的机制,包括服务器生成或选择受损客户端设备以获得额外信息的“Sybil”攻击。我们利用这种新的隐私机制构建了一个改进的安全联邦学习协议,并证明了该协议的安全性。最后,我们在5000个分布式网络客户端的现实模拟中对两个数据集的协议执行速度、学习准确性和隐私性能进行了实证分析。
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引用次数: 3
Denoised Labels for Financial Time Series Data via Self-Supervised Learning 基于自监督学习的金融时间序列数据去噪标签
Pub Date : 2021-12-19 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561687
Yanqing Ma, Carmine Ventre, M. Polukarov
The introduction of electronic trading platforms effectively changed the organisation of traditional systemic trading from quote-driven markets into order-driven markets. Its convenience led to an exponentially increasing amount of financial data, which is however hard to use for the prediction of future prices, due to the low signal-to-noise ratio and the non-stationarity of financial time series. Simpler classification tasks — where the goal is to predict the directions of future price movement via supervised learning algorithms — need sufficiently reliable labels to generalise well. Labelling financial data is however less well defined than in other domains: did the price go up because of noise or a signal? The existing labelling methods have limited countermeasures against the noise, as well as limited effects in improving learning algorithms. This work takes inspiration from image classification in trading [6] and the success of self-supervised learning in computer vision (e.g., [16]). We investigate the idea of applying these techniques to financial time series to reduce the noise exposure and hence generate correct labels. We look at label generation as the pretext task of a self-supervised learning approach and compare the naive (and noisy) labels, commonly used in the literature, with the labels generated by a denoising autoencoder for the same downstream classification task. Our results demonstrate that these denoised labels improve the performances of the downstream learning algorithm, for both small and large datasets, while preserving the market trends. These findings suggest that with our proposed techniques, self-supervised learning constitutes a powerful framework for generating “better” financial labels that are useful for studying the underlying patterns of the market.
电子交易平台的引入有效地改变了传统的系统交易组织,从报价驱动的市场转变为订单驱动的市场。它的便利性导致金融数据呈指数级增长,但由于金融时间序列的低信噪比和非平稳性,这些数据难以用于预测未来的价格。更简单的分类任务——其目标是通过监督学习算法预测未来价格走势——需要足够可靠的标签才能很好地泛化。然而,与其他领域相比,给金融数据贴上标签的定义不那么明确:价格上涨是因为噪音还是信号?现有的标注方法对噪声的应对措施有限,在改进学习算法方面的效果也有限。这项工作的灵感来自于交易[6]中的图像分类和计算机视觉中自监督学习的成功(例如[16])。我们研究了将这些技术应用于金融时间序列的想法,以减少噪声暴露,从而产生正确的标签。我们将标签生成视为自监督学习方法的借口任务,并将文献中常用的朴素(和噪声)标签与由去噪自编码器为相同的下游分类任务生成的标签进行比较。我们的研究结果表明,这些去噪的标签提高了下游学习算法的性能,无论是小数据集还是大数据集,同时保持了市场趋势。这些发现表明,通过我们提出的技术,自我监督学习构成了一个强大的框架,可以生成“更好”的金融标签,这些标签对研究市场的潜在模式很有用。
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引用次数: 4
Efficient Calibration of Multi-Agent Simulation Models from Output Series with Bayesian Optimization 基于贝叶斯优化的多智能体输出序列仿真模型的高效标定
Pub Date : 2021-12-03 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561755
Yuanlu Bai, H. Lam, T. Balch, Svitlana Vyetrenko
Multi-agent simulation is commonly used across multiple disciplines, specifically in artificial intelligence in recent years, which creates an environment for downstream machine learning or reinforcement learning tasks. In many practical scenarios, however, only the output series that result from the interactions of simulation agents are observable. Therefore, simulators need to be calibrated so that the simulated output series resemble historical – which amounts to solving a complex simulation optimization problem. In this paper, we propose a simple and efficient framework for calibrating simulator parameters from historical output series observations. First, we consider a novel concept of eligibility set to bypass the potential non-identifiability issue. Second, we generalize the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test with Bonferroni correction to test the similarity between two high-dimensional distributions, which gives a simple yet effective distance metric between the output series sample sets. Third, we suggest using Bayesian optimization (BO) and trust-region BO (TuRBO) to minimize the aforementioned distance metric. Finally, we demonstrate the efficiency of our framework using numerical experiments both on a multi-agent financial market simulator.
多智能体仿真通常用于多个学科,特别是近年来在人工智能领域,它为下游机器学习或强化学习任务创造了一个环境。然而,在许多实际场景中,只有仿真代理交互产生的输出序列是可观察到的。因此,需要对模拟器进行校准,使模拟的输出序列与历史相似——这相当于解决了一个复杂的模拟优化问题。在本文中,我们提出了一个简单而有效的框架,用于从历史输出序列观测校准模拟器参数。首先,我们考虑了一个新的资格集概念,以绕过潜在的不可识别性问题。其次,我们用Bonferroni校正推广了两样本Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S)检验来测试两个高维分布之间的相似性,这给出了一个简单而有效的输出序列样本集之间的距离度量。第三,我们建议使用贝叶斯优化(BO)和信任域优化(TuRBO)来最小化上述距离度量。最后,我们用多智能体金融市场模拟器上的数值实验证明了我们的框架的有效性。
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引用次数: 5
Theoretically Motivated Data Augmentation and Regularization for Portfolio Construction 投资组合构建的理论激励数据增强与正则化
Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561720
Liu Ziyin, Kentaro Minami, Kentaro Imajo
The task we consider is portfolio construction in a speculative market, a fundamental problem in modern finance. While various empirical works now exist to explore deep learning in finance, the theory side is almost non-existent. In this work, we focus on developing a theoretical framework for understanding the use of data augmentation for deep-learning-based approaches to quantitative finance. The proposed theory clarifies the role and necessity of data augmentation for finance; moreover, our theory implies that a simple algorithm of injecting a random noise of strength to the observed return rt is better than not injecting any noise and a few other financially irrelevant data augmentation techniques.
我们考虑的任务是在投机市场中的投资组合构建,这是现代金融的一个基本问题。虽然现在有各种实证工作来探索金融中的深度学习,但理论方面几乎不存在。在这项工作中,我们专注于开发一个理论框架,以理解基于深度学习的定量金融方法中数据增强的使用。提出的理论阐明了金融数据扩充的作用和必要性;此外,我们的理论表明,向观察到的返回rt注入强度随机噪声的简单算法优于不注入任何噪声和其他一些财务上无关的数据增强技术。
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引用次数: 2
A Deep Learning Approach for Dynamic Balance Sheet Stress Testing 动态资产负债表压力测试的深度学习方法
Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.1145/3533271.3561656
Anastasios Petropoulos, Vassilis Siakoulis, Konstantinos P. Panousis, T. Christophides, S. Chatzis
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, supervisory authorities have considerably altered the mode of operation of financial stress testing. Despite these efforts, significant concerns and extensive criticism have been raised by market participants regarding the considered unrealistic methodological assumptions and simplifications. Current stress testing methodologies attempt to simulate the risks underlying a financial institution’s balance sheet by using several satellite models. This renders their integration a really challenging task, leading to significant estimation errors. Moreover, advanced statistical techniques that could potentially capture the non-linear nature of adverse shocks are still ignored. This work aims to address these criticisms and shortcomings by proposing a novel approach based on recent advances in Deep Learning towards a principled method for Dynamic Balance Sheet Stress Testing. Experimental results on a newly collected financial/supervisory dataset, provide strong empirical evidence that our paradigm significantly outperforms traditional approaches; thus, it is capable of more accurately and efficiently simulating real world scenarios.
在金融危机之后,监管当局大大改变了金融压力测试的操作模式。尽管做出了这些努力,但市场参与者对被认为不切实际的方法假设和简化提出了重大关切和广泛批评。目前的压力测试方法试图通过使用几个卫星模型来模拟金融机构资产负债表的潜在风险。这使得它们的集成成为一项非常具有挑战性的任务,导致严重的估计错误。此外,有可能捕捉到不利冲击非线性特性的先进统计技术仍被忽视。这项工作旨在通过提出一种基于深度学习的新方法来解决这些批评和缺点,以实现动态资产负债表压力测试的原则方法。在新收集的金融/监管数据集上的实验结果提供了强有力的经验证据,表明我们的范式显著优于传统方法;因此,它能够更准确、更有效地模拟现实世界的场景。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Proceedings of the Third ACM International Conference on AI in Finance
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