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Income Business Cycles 商业周期
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3905850
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Sandra Pasch
Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience significantly larger fluctuations across the business cycle than middle-income individuals. Third, these fluctuations have become smaller over the course of the Great Moderation for the bottom and the very top income individuals. With the financial crisis starting in 2009 and its repercussions, the volatilities are again increasing; however, not significantly. These findings are independent from the method to extract the business cycle component.
使用各种商业周期日期和过滤技术,本文记录了美国税后收入分配的周期性行为。首先,所有收入都是周期性的,与商业周期同步。第二,在整个商业周期中,低收入和高收入个人比中等收入个人经历的波动要大得多。第三,在“大缓和”(Great Moderation)期间,对于收入最低和最高的人群来说,这些波动已经变小了。随着2009年金融危机的爆发及其影响,波动性再次上升;然而,并不显著。这些发现独立于提取商业周期成分的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Recessions and the Stock Market 经济衰退与股市
Pub Date : 2020-11-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3161979
Tim A. Kroencke
Why do stock prices fall more sharply than dividends around recessions? One possible explanation is that stock prices fall in anticipation of low future cash flows. I find that prices and cash flows drop contemporaneously, which speaks against such a channel. Alternatively, prices drop because expected returns are rising. I find that price volatility increases substantially more than cash flow volatility during recessions, which suggests that changes in the price of risk play an important role. However, the magnitude necessary is difficult to reconcile by standard models. Studying the stock market around recessions allows for a fresh empirical assessment of competing asset pricing theories.
为什么在经济衰退期间,股价比股息下跌得更厉害?一种可能的解释是,股价下跌是因为预期未来现金流较低。我发现价格和现金流同时下降,这不利于这种渠道。或者,价格下跌是因为预期回报在上升。我发现,在经济衰退期间,价格波动的增幅远远大于现金流波动,这表明风险价格的变化起着重要作用。然而,所需的量级很难用标准模型来调和。在经济衰退期间研究股市,可以对相互竞争的资产定价理论进行新的实证评估。
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引用次数: 6
The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports: A Panel VAR Analysis 汇率不确定性对出口的影响:面板VAR分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-21 DOI: 10.4067/s0718-52862020000200157
Leonel Muinelo‐Gallo, Ronald Miranda Lescano, Gabriela Mordecki
In this paper we analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on export flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity-exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries' economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.
在本文中,我们分析了汇率不确定性对27个国家在1994/01-2014/12期间出口流动的影响。为了做到这一点,我们应用面板向量自回归模型方法。通过将面板划分为涉及制造业出口和商品出口经济体的两个子组,我们观察到汇率不确定性对出口的不同影响。这对制造业出口国有负面影响,但对商品出口国没有影响。这一结果似乎可以用各国的经济特点来解释,这些特点包括引起汇率不确定性的出口调整的灵活性或刚性。
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引用次数: 1
Political Economy of Statistics: Manipulating Data 统计的政治经济学:操纵数据
Pub Date : 2020-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3705352
B. Frey
This paper focuses on the incentives by governments to manipulate statistics, not on techniques how to do so. I wish to contribute to explaining when, where and to what extent the governments tend to falsify official data. This issue is important for three reasons: (1) Manipulating statistics undermines the very essence of data collection; (2) Falsified statistics corrode policy action; (3) Econometric estimates based on manipulated data systematically distort the results. Most of the debate in economics journals on identification and potential bias in econometric models assume that the data has not been falsified.
本文关注的是政府操纵统计数据的动机,而不是如何操纵统计数据的技术。我希望有助于解释政府在何时、何地以及在何种程度上倾向于伪造官方数据。这个问题很重要,原因有三:(1)操纵统计数据破坏了数据收集的本质;(2)统计造假影响政策行动;(3)基于操纵数据的计量经济学估计系统性地扭曲了结果。经济学期刊上关于计量经济学模型的识别和潜在偏差的大多数争论都假设数据没有被证伪。
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引用次数: 0
A Silent Revolution: How Central Bank Statistics Have Changed in the Last 25 Years 《无声的革命:中央银行统计数据在过去25年的变化》
Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710143
Riccardo De Bonis, GianMatteo Piazza
This work provides a comprehensive overview of the giant leap made by European central bank statistics over the last quarter century. We illustrate, first, the work that led to a brand new set of central bank statistics for the implementation of the common monetary policy in the euro area. We then focus on the most significant developments brought up by the financial crisis and by the institutional changes that accompanied it. The final part look at challenges lying ahead for official statistics, namely how to deal with digitalization and globalization.
这项工作提供了一个全面的概述,在过去的25年里,欧洲中央银行的统计数据取得了巨大的飞跃。首先,我们说明了一项工作,该工作为欧元区共同货币政策的实施提供了一套全新的中央银行统计数据。然后,我们将重点关注金融危机以及随之而来的制度变革带来的最重要的发展。最后一部分探讨了官方统计面临的挑战,即如何应对数字化和全球化。
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引用次数: 0
On the Measurement of Growth Over the Long Run 关于长期增长的衡量
Pub Date : 2020-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3290847
Rafael R. Guthmann
Methodologies for the construction of national accounts often differ across time and countries. This paper discusses issues raised by this methodological heterogeneity on the long-run measure of economic growth and presents two sets of internationally comparable estimates of GDP for the period from 1820 to 2018. The estimates are based on real product benchmarks relative to a reference economy. The reference economy’s GDP time series is a normalized composite of several indices. The US and the UK are used as reference economies producing two sets of estimates. These estimates suggest less variation in incomes among developed economies than those of the 2018 version of the Maddison Project, are closer to Maddison’s original estimates, and suggest that both these datasets underestimated growth in the more distant past relative to more recent decades.
构建国民核算的方法往往因时间和国家而异。本文讨论了经济增长长期衡量方法异质性所带来的问题,并提出了1820年至2018年期间两组具有国际可比性的GDP估计值。这些估计是基于相对于参考经济体的实际产品基准。参考经济体的GDP时间序列是几个指标的归一化组合。美国和英国被用作参考经济体,得出两套估算值。这些估计表明,发达经济体之间的收入差异比麦迪森计划2018年版本的估计要小,更接近麦迪森最初的估计,并且表明,相对于最近几十年,这两个数据集都低估了更遥远过去的增长。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic of Investment Goods Imports Amid Pandemic 疫情期间投资品进口动态
Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3600867
P. Pavlov
Fixed investment is one of fundamental factors for ensuring long-term economic growth and for the economic recovery following the surmounting of business activity decline, crises and recessions. The Russian economy rather strongly depends on imports of investment goods, for example, in January-February 2020 the share of machinery, equipment, and means of transport accounted for around 40% of the total Russia’s imports. The task of reducing dependence from imports remains urgent in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic when slowdown of business activity worldwide raises risks for restrictions on shipments of required nomenclature of investment goods.
固定投资是确保长期经济增长和克服商业活动下降、危机和衰退后经济复苏的基本因素之一。俄罗斯经济很大程度上依赖于投资品的进口,例如,2020年1 - 2月,机械、设备和运输工具的份额约占俄罗斯进口总额的40%。在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行之后,减少对进口的依赖仍然是一项紧迫的任务,因为全球商业活动放缓,增加了限制所需命名的投资品运输的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Un’introduzione ai conti patrimoniali dell’Italia: caratteristiche metodologiche e principali evidenze (An Introduction to Italian Balance Sheets: Methodology and Stylized Facts) 《意大利资产负债表:方法论与程式化事实》
Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3612773
F. Vercelli, L. Infante
Italian Abstract: I conti patrimoniali sono parte del sistema di contabilità nazionale e forniscono un quadro completo della ricchezza di un paese e della sua evoluzione temporale. Nel lavoro vengono presentati i conti patrimoniali dell’Italia costruiti utilizzando i dati dei conti finanziari prodotti dalla Banca d’Italia e quelli delle attività non finanziarie calcolati dall’Istat. Offriamo inoltre evidenza delle specificità italiane nel confronto internazionale, tenendo in considerazione i limiti di comparabilità tra le statistiche sulle attività non finanziarie nei diversi paesi. In Italia il peso delle attività non finanziarie sul totale della ricchezza è salito tra il 2005 e il 2008 dal 43 al 47 per cento per effetto della dinamica dei prezzi dei fabbricati, per poi ridursi lentamente dal 2012 e raggiungere il 41 per cento alla fine del 2017. La ricchezza netta delle famiglie italiane compensa ampiamente i valori negativi registrati dalle amministrazioni pubbliche. Il rapporto tra ricchezza netta e reddito risulta in Italia elevato nel confronto con altre economie; il divario con gli altri paesi è andato tuttavia riducendosi nel corso dell’ultimo decennio.

English Abstract:Balance sheet statistics are included in the national accounts system and provide a complete framework for analysing the wealth of a nation and its evolution over time. The paper presents Italian balance sheets, compiled using data on financial accounts produced by the Bank of Italy and non-financial asset data calculated by Istat, the Italian National Institute of Statistics. We provide stylized facts on the comparison between Italy and other major economies, taking into account the statistical comparability limits on non-financial assets across countries. In Italy, the ratio of non-financial assets to gross wealth increased from 43 to 47 per cent between 2005 and 2008 because of the dynamics of housing prices. It then gradually decreased from 2012, reaching 41 per cent at the end of 2017. The net wealth of Italian households far outweighs the negative values reported in the public sector. The ratio of net wealth to income is high in Italy compared with other countries; nevertheless, the gap has narrowed over the last decade.
意大利摘要:资产负债表是国民核算体系的一部分,提供了一个国家财富及其时间发展的完整图景。在这项工作中,根据意大利银行编制的财务帐户和统计司计算的非金融资产的数据,提出了意大利的资产负债表。我们还在国际比较中突出了意大利的具体特点,同时考虑到各国非金融活动统计数字之间的可比性的限度。在意大利,非金融资产占总财富的比重在2005年至2008年间从43%上升到47%意大利家庭的净财富在很大程度上抵消了政府记录的负值。与其他经济体相比,意大利的净财富/收入比率很高;然而,在过去十年中,与其他国家的差距有所缩小。英国摘要:平衡的统计数据被纳入国家会计系统,并为分析一个国家及其演变的财富提供了一个完整的框架。意大利国家统计局(Italian National Institute of Statistics)在意大利国家统计研究所(Istat)编制的《意大利平衡表》(paper an balance sheets)中使用了意大利银行(Bank of Italy)编制的财务账户数据。我们在意大利和其他主要经济体之间的比较中提出了方法学事实,并考虑到各国非金融资产的统计可比性限制。在意大利,由于房价的动态,2005年至2008年间,非金融资产占总财富的比例从43%上升到47%。然后从2012年开始逐渐下降,到2017年底达到41美分。意大利家庭主妇的网络财富将负面价值外逃到公共部门。与其他国家相比,意大利的收入比率很高;在过去的十年里,这种差距已经缩小了。
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引用次数: 0
A Research Study of Nonlinearity Experiencing in the Rate of Current Account Deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product 保加利亚卫生保健国民生产总值经常账户赤字率的非线性经历研究
Pub Date : 2019-06-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3411558
V. Terziev, Stoyanka Petkova-Georgieva
called Regime Switching Models: TAR, SETAR, Markov Switching Model, etc. Usually, the behavior of time series exhibit breaks is associated with structural changes in government policy or financial crises. In the present research it is used as an example the calculated data about the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product. The series are hard to be modeling because of the structural change of the government policy about the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product. The basic hypothesis that is tested in the conducted research is that when there is a case of changes in the time series in their structure it is impossible the principles of linearity assumption to be applied. In the traditional econometrics as a science the linearity is an important assumption but there are practical evidences in which most of the time series do not provide this assumption. These cases of such time series behavior are called nonlinearity series. It is important to test the linearity assumption because of the differing between the ways of modeling the series in the case of linearity and nonlinearity using the date of the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product. If any series do not provide the linearity assumption and also have change in the structure then the case can be modeling with TAR, SETAR or Markov Switching Model. We provided the research by questioning whether there is nonlinearity in the rate of proportion of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Health and Care National Product and it is experienced with four nonlinearity tests: Kaplan Test, McLeod-Li test, BDS Test and Tzay Test .
称为状态切换模型:TAR, SETAR,马尔可夫切换模型等。通常,时间序列断裂的行为与政府政策的结构性变化或金融危机有关。在本研究中,以保加利亚卫生和保健国民产品经常账户赤字率的计算数据为例。由于政府对保加利亚卫生和保健国民产品政策的结构性变化,该系列很难建模。在所进行的研究中检验的基本假设是,当它们的结构中存在时间序列变化的情况时,不可能应用线性假设原则。在传统的计量经济学中,线性是一个重要的假设,但有实际证据表明,大多数时间序列不提供这一假设。这种时间序列的行为被称为非线性序列。检验线性假设是很重要的,因为在线性和非线性情况下,使用保加利亚卫生和保健国民产品经常账户赤字比率的日期对该系列建模的方式不同。如果任何系列不提供线性假设,并且结构也有变化,则可以使用TAR, SETAR或马尔可夫切换模型进行建模。我们通过质疑经常账户赤字占保加利亚卫生保健国民生产总值的比例是否存在非线性来进行研究,并采用了四种非线性检验:Kaplan检验、McLeod-Li检验、BDS检验和Tzay检验。
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引用次数: 20
Italia 1 Trim 2019: Pil, Debito & Co (Italy 1q 2019: GDP, Debt & Co.) 意大利2019年第一季度:Pil, Debito & Co.(意大利2019年第一季度:GDP,债务& Co.)
Pub Date : 2019-05-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3392197
Maurizio Mazziero, A. Lawford, Gabriele Serafini
Italian Abstract: Ricerca sulla situazione economica italiana basata sui dati economici ufficiali; vengono analizzati e confrontati con il passato il debito pubblico, le riserve ufficiali, il PIL, l'inflazione e la disoccupazione.

English Abstract: Research into the state of the Italian economy based on official economic data; the current Sovereign Debt, Official Reserves, GDP, Inflation and Unemployment situation is presented and and compared with the past.
意大利摘要:根据官方经济数据对意大利经济形势进行研究;对公共债务、官方储备、国内生产总值、通货膨胀和失业进行分析和比较。英语摘要:根据官方经济数据对意大利经济状况的研究;当前的债务负担、官方保留、GDP、通货膨胀和失业情况已经呈现,并与过去进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)
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