How can national income be adjusted to indicate welfare improvement if the future is uncertain? The present paper extends the definition of national income to stochastic settings on the basis of discounted utilitarian welfare function. Real interest rate of consumption is redefined so that real national income can be interpreted as the expected present value of real interest on future national consumption. A stochastic one-good model is used to illustrate the application of the stochastic real national income. It turns out that under uncertainty real national income may be decreasing even though captial stock is constant or increasing over time
{"title":"Stochastic National Income","authors":"T. Wei","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1564097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1564097","url":null,"abstract":"How can national income be adjusted to indicate welfare improvement if the future is uncertain? The present paper extends the definition of national income to stochastic settings on the basis of discounted utilitarian welfare function. Real interest rate of consumption is redefined so that real national income can be interpreted as the expected present value of real interest on future national consumption. A stochastic one-good model is used to illustrate the application of the stochastic real national income. It turns out that under uncertainty real national income may be decreasing even though captial stock is constant or increasing over time","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122797344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-12-01DOI: 10.5089/9781475563948.001.A001
M. Catalan, Nicolás E. Magud
We compare the long-term output and current account effects of pension reforms that increase the retirement age with those of reforms that cut pension benefits, conditional on reforms achieving similar fiscal targets. We show the presence of a policy trade-off. Pension reforms that increase the retirement age have a large positive effect on output, but a small (and often negative) effect on the current account. In contrast, reforms that cut pension benefits improve the current account balance but reduce output. Mixed pension reforms, which extend the working life and cut pension benefits, can simultaneously boost output and the current account.
{"title":"A Tradeoff between the Output and Current Account Effects of Pension Reform","authors":"M. Catalan, Nicolás E. Magud","doi":"10.5089/9781475563948.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475563948.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"We compare the long-term output and current account effects of pension reforms that increase the retirement age with those of reforms that cut pension benefits, conditional on reforms achieving similar fiscal targets. We show the presence of a policy trade-off. Pension reforms that increase the retirement age have a large positive effect on output, but a small (and often negative) effect on the current account. In contrast, reforms that cut pension benefits improve the current account balance but reduce output. Mixed pension reforms, which extend the working life and cut pension benefits, can simultaneously boost output and the current account.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128981441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article in the Economic Insights series summarizes results from current Statistics Canada research on investment and capital stock accumulation. It reports on the study, Intangible Capital and Productivity Growth in Canada. Compiling information on wealth accumulation has been central to Statistics Canada’s activities since its inception. The wealth of the nation is a measure of its financial strength, international standing, and economic power. In 1915, Canada’s first Chief Statistician, Robert H. Coats, compiled Canada’s initial estimate of national wealth at the behest of the Borden Conservatives. He set the value of Canada at $16.3 billion. Since then, the practice of compiling national wealth estimates has continued, with current national balance sheet estimates placing Canada’s 2011 wealth at $6.9 trillion. Over time, the accuracy with which national wealth is estimated has improved, and the scope of assets examined has expanded. This process involved debate about which assets should be included, and how they should be measured.
本文是《经济洞察》系列文章，总结了加拿大统计局目前关于投资和资本存量积累的研究结果。它报告了研究，无形资本和生产力增长在加拿大。编制关于财富积累的资料自成立以来一直是加拿大统计局活动的核心。一个国家的财富是衡量其金融实力、国际地位和经济实力的标准。1915年，加拿大第一位首席统计学家罗伯特·h·科茨(Robert H. Coats)应博登保守党(Borden Conservatives)的要求，编制了加拿大对国民财富的初步估计。他将加拿大的价值定为163亿美元。从那以后，编制国家财富估算的做法一直在继续，目前的国家资产负债表估算显示，加拿大2011年的财富为6.9万亿美元。随着时间的推移，估算国民财富的准确性有所提高，所检查资产的范围也有所扩大。这个过程涉及到关于哪些资产应该被包括在内，以及它们应该如何被衡量的争论。
{"title":"The New Investment Paradigm?","authors":"J. Baldwin, Wulong Gu, R. Macdonald","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2094439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2094439","url":null,"abstract":"This article in the Economic Insights series summarizes results from current Statistics Canada research on investment and capital stock accumulation. It reports on the study, Intangible Capital and Productivity Growth in Canada. Compiling information on wealth accumulation has been central to Statistics Canada’s activities since its inception. The wealth of the nation is a measure of its financial strength, international standing, and economic power. In 1915, Canada’s first Chief Statistician, Robert H. Coats, compiled Canada’s initial estimate of national wealth at the behest of the Borden Conservatives. He set the value of Canada at $16.3 billion. Since then, the practice of compiling national wealth estimates has continued, with current national balance sheet estimates placing Canada’s 2011 wealth at $6.9 trillion. Over time, the accuracy with which national wealth is estimated has improved, and the scope of assets examined has expanded. This process involved debate about which assets should be included, and how they should be measured.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116835202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic models at the micro, meso and macro levels presuppose the existence of consistent databases that make it possible to quantify the activity of enterprises, sectors, regions, countries or continents. Such models can also be important aids in the policy decision process, since they permit the construction of scenarios resulting from the adoption of policy measures and the consequent changes that they introduce. When consistent with the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA), the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) can include all the nominal flows of the measured part of the economy, at the level of both production and the institutions, and therefore satisfies these requirements. Thus, in its numerical version, a SAM constitutes a database and provides a snapshot of the measured reality at a certain moment, whereas its possible algebraic versions, i.e. models that are based upon it, permit the construction of the above-mentioned scenarios. The possibility and usefulness of constructing SAMs for African countries consistent with the SNA will be examined and experimented. The SAM’s basic structure and consistency within the whole system will be studied, as well as any possible disaggregations, extensions, aggregates, indicators and balances that can be calculated. Other aspects beyond that basic structure will also be examined in order to show to what extent the SAM is capable of covering parts of the economy that are not covered by the SNA.
{"title":"Measuring the Activity of European and African Countries Using Social Accounting Matrices","authors":"S. Santos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1944735","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1944735","url":null,"abstract":"Economic models at the micro, meso and macro levels presuppose the existence of consistent databases that make it possible to quantify the activity of enterprises, sectors, regions, countries or continents. Such models can also be important aids in the policy decision process, since they permit the construction of scenarios resulting from the adoption of policy measures and the consequent changes that they introduce. When consistent with the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA), the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) can include all the nominal flows of the measured part of the economy, at the level of both production and the institutions, and therefore satisfies these requirements. Thus, in its numerical version, a SAM constitutes a database and provides a snapshot of the measured reality at a certain moment, whereas its possible algebraic versions, i.e. models that are based upon it, permit the construction of the above-mentioned scenarios. The possibility and usefulness of constructing SAMs for African countries consistent with the SNA will be examined and experimented. The SAM’s basic structure and consistency within the whole system will be studied, as well as any possible disaggregations, extensions, aggregates, indicators and balances that can be calculated. Other aspects beyond that basic structure will also be examined in order to show to what extent the SAM is capable of covering parts of the economy that are not covered by the SNA.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132380231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This note briefly describes the merits and limitations of the national accounts, e.g. GDP per capita is a simple measure of material welfare, but is not a comprehensive measure of welfare.
{"title":"Fifty Major Contributions of Social Science to Society - National Accounts: Barometer, Telescope and Compass of the National Economy","authors":"F. Bos","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1789025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1789025","url":null,"abstract":"This note briefly describes the merits and limitations of the national accounts, e.g. GDP per capita is a simple measure of material welfare, but is not a comprehensive measure of welfare.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125611699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-29DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00423.x
Mitsuru Sunada
This study applies a framework that enables one to estimate quality, exact cost of living (COL) indexes, and output growth for the retail industry. The framework is based on discrete choice theory, in which product differentiation and quality change are explicitly modeled. For illustration, the framework is then applied to the Japanese retail industry. The estimated quality index shows that, between 1985 and 1999, Japanese retail services quality improved, and the estimated COL index declined monotonically. Furthermore, the results from growth accounting suggest that ignoring both differentiation in the retail services market and changes in service quality may downwardly bias estimated output and productivity growth.
{"title":"Measuring the Cost of Living Index, Output Growth, and Productivity Growth in the Retail Industry: An Application to Japan","authors":"Mitsuru Sunada","doi":"10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00423.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00423.x","url":null,"abstract":"This study applies a framework that enables one to estimate quality, exact cost of living (COL) indexes, and output growth for the retail industry. The framework is based on discrete choice theory, in which product differentiation and quality change are explicitly modeled. For illustration, the framework is then applied to the Japanese retail industry. The estimated quality index shows that, between 1985 and 1999, Japanese retail services quality improved, and the estimated COL index declined monotonically. Furthermore, the results from growth accounting suggest that ignoring both differentiation in the retail services market and changes in service quality may downwardly bias estimated output and productivity growth.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128342431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we introduce the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, a new longitudinal database with detailed information on consumer debt and credit. The panel uses a unique sample design and information derived from consumer credit reports to track individuals’ and households’ access to and use of credit at a quarterly frequency. In any given quarter ranging from the first quarter of 1999 to the present, the panel can be used to compute nationally representative estimates of the levels and changes in various aspects of individual and household liabilities. In addition to describing the sample design, the use of sample weights, and the credit report information included in the database, we provide some comparisons of population statistics and consumer debt estimates derived from our panel with those based on data from the American Community Survey and the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States.
{"title":"An Introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel","authors":"Donghoon Lee, Wilbert van der Klaauw","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1719116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1719116","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we introduce the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, a new longitudinal database with detailed information on consumer debt and credit. The panel uses a unique sample design and information derived from consumer credit reports to track individuals’ and households’ access to and use of credit at a quarterly frequency. In any given quarter ranging from the first quarter of 1999 to the present, the panel can be used to compute nationally representative estimates of the levels and changes in various aspects of individual and household liabilities. In addition to describing the sample design, the use of sample weights, and the credit report information included in the database, we provide some comparisons of population statistics and consumer debt estimates derived from our panel with those based on data from the American Community Survey and the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120940002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real Gross Regional Product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed for. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It is also shown that the effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at the 1-year horizon and exceeds 25% at the 13- and 14-year horizon).
{"title":"How Helpful are Spatial Effects in Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?","authors":"E. Girardin, K. Kholodilin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1665020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1665020","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real Gross Regional Product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed for. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It is also shown that the effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at the 1-year horizon and exceeds 25% at the 13- and 14-year horizon).","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122767789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the importance of the Tertiary sector and the informal sector for the Brazilian economy, making an interconnection between them and with them and the rest of the economy and the formal sector. To do so, this work makes use of the data presented in the System of National Accounts and the National Survey of Households (PNAD), both from IBGE, and the Leontief model. The results show: a) the importance of the Tertiary sector for the Brazilian economy in terms of employment (around 61% of the occupied persons), and income generation (around 67% of the economy Value Added); b) the high share of the informal sector in the Brazilian economy (around 58% of the occupied persons and 34% of the income); c) the combination of these factors results in an economy with low wages and salaries and with an high concentration of income; and d) that the present productive structure of the Brazilian economy contributes to the concentration of income in the country.
{"title":"Tertiary Activities and Informality: Quantitative Importance and Interconnections within the Economy in Brazil","authors":"C. Azzoni, J. Guilhoto","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1830392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1830392","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the importance of the Tertiary sector and the informal sector for the Brazilian economy, making an interconnection between them and with them and the rest of the economy and the formal sector. To do so, this work makes use of the data presented in the System of National Accounts and the National Survey of Households (PNAD), both from IBGE, and the Leontief model. The results show: a) the importance of the Tertiary sector for the Brazilian economy in terms of employment (around 61% of the occupied persons), and income generation (around 67% of the economy Value Added); b) the high share of the informal sector in the Brazilian economy (around 58% of the occupied persons and 34% of the income); c) the combination of these factors results in an economy with low wages and salaries and with an high concentration of income; and d) that the present productive structure of the Brazilian economy contributes to the concentration of income in the country.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116775705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the different types of deflators that are used to compare volume estimates of national income and production across countries. It argues that these deflators need to be tailored to the specific income concept used for study. If the potential to spend concept is employed, a purchasing power deflator is needed. If a production based concept is used, a producing power deflator is necessary. The paper argues that present practice produces a hybrid deflator that fails both purposes when terms of trade shifts are large and offers a solution.
{"title":"Differences in Canadian and US Income Levels, 1961 to 2008","authors":"J. Baldwin, R. Macdonald","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1600328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1600328","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the different types of deflators that are used to compare volume estimates of national income and production across countries. It argues that these deflators need to be tailored to the specific income concept used for study. If the potential to spend concept is employed, a purchasing power deflator is needed. If a production based concept is used, a producing power deflator is necessary. The paper argues that present practice produces a hybrid deflator that fails both purposes when terms of trade shifts are large and offers a solution.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125632494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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