Pub Date : 2016-09-01DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198803720.003.0002
D. Coyle
There have been several challenges over the decades to the status of real GDP growth as the headline indicator of economic progress. This includes forceful critiques from those urging the need to account for environmental sustainability. To date, however, the challenges have not affected the everyday use of GDP statistics in policy and political debate. This may now be changing due to the influence of the technology sector. Digital technologies are altering significantly the structure of production and consumption in ways that raise questions about issues such as the loss of business model invariance of GDP and whether the conventional production boundary judgement remains meaningful. Moreover, the digital sector is exerting its lobbying influence in policy debate to raise the profile of its criticisms of the conventional statistical definitions and practices, arguing that the figures obscure the industry’s ‘true’ contribution to the economy. As a result, for the first time since the 1950s, there is a broad coalition in favour of the replacement of GDP as the gauge of economic health, prompting a perhaps surprising degree of popular interest in national accounting. However, there is no equivalent breadth of voices coalescing around a single alternative measure (or set of measures). Instead, there is a proliferation of alternative approaches. This paper models the setting of standards for economic measurement as a co-operative game with multiple potential equilibrium outcomes, and considers the conditions for a move away from the prevailing statistical standard. The success of such a move depends on whether there is sufficient agreement on an alternative standard to enable a co-ordinated move. However, there is unlikely to be sufficient consensus without a compelling theory around which economists and policymakers can coalesce – the role played by Keynes’s macroeconomics in the original creation of today’s national accounting standards.
{"title":"The Political Economy of National Statistics","authors":"D. Coyle","doi":"10.1093/oso/9780198803720.003.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198803720.003.0002","url":null,"abstract":"There have been several challenges over the decades to the status of real GDP growth as the headline indicator of economic progress. This includes forceful critiques from those urging the need to account for environmental sustainability. To date, however, the challenges have not affected the everyday use of GDP statistics in policy and political debate. This may now be changing due to the influence of the technology sector. Digital technologies are altering significantly the structure of production and consumption in ways that raise questions about issues such as the loss of business model invariance of GDP and whether the conventional production boundary judgement remains meaningful. Moreover, the digital sector is exerting its lobbying influence in policy debate to raise the profile of its criticisms of the conventional statistical definitions and practices, arguing that the figures obscure the industry’s ‘true’ contribution to the economy. As a result, for the first time since the 1950s, there is a broad coalition in favour of the replacement of GDP as the gauge of economic health, prompting a perhaps surprising degree of popular interest in national accounting. However, there is no equivalent breadth of voices coalescing around a single alternative measure (or set of measures). Instead, there is a proliferation of alternative approaches. This paper models the setting of standards for economic measurement as a co-operative game with multiple potential equilibrium outcomes, and considers the conditions for a move away from the prevailing statistical standard. The success of such a move depends on whether there is sufficient agreement on an alternative standard to enable a co-ordinated move. However, there is unlikely to be sufficient consensus without a compelling theory around which economists and policymakers can coalesce – the role played by Keynes’s macroeconomics in the original creation of today’s national accounting standards.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130283599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines whether the negative association between aggregate earnings and returns is explained by the monetary policy news in aggregate earnings. Using Federal funds futures data to construct a measure of policy news, we find that aggregate earnings convey information about the Fed׳s policy actions. Additionally, the negative aggregate earnings-returns association is muted when we control for policy surprises. This result is more pronounced in periods with negative policy surprises, which tend to trigger a more significant market reaction. Taken together, these results suggest that aggregate earnings convey policy news and the market reacts negatively to policy surprises, which drives the negative aggregate earnings-returns association.
{"title":"Aggregate Earnings Surprises, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns","authors":"Lindsey A. Gallo, Rebecca N. Hann, Congcong Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2297490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2297490","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether the negative association between aggregate earnings and returns is explained by the monetary policy news in aggregate earnings. Using Federal funds futures data to construct a measure of policy news, we find that aggregate earnings convey information about the Fed׳s policy actions. Additionally, the negative aggregate earnings-returns association is muted when we control for policy surprises. This result is more pronounced in periods with negative policy surprises, which tend to trigger a more significant market reaction. Taken together, these results suggest that aggregate earnings convey policy news and the market reacts negatively to policy surprises, which drives the negative aggregate earnings-returns association.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116282882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we measure the size of the shadow economy in North Cyprus by using micro-econometric approaches and then calculate its implications on national accounts and fiscal balances. There is a relatively new strand of literature that focuses on comparing income-expenditure patterns of households to calculate the degree of underreporting of income levels by self-employed and privately employed individuals, as compared with public servants. We use the 2008 Household Budget Survey of North Cyprus and analyze the differences in food consumption patterns among three kinds of employees: self-employed, privately employed, and public. We found that self‐employed and privately employed individuals underreport their income levels by 20 percent and 13 percent, respectively, compared with publicly employed individuals. This has important implications for the aggregate economy in North Cyprus, where we estimate that the shadow economy created by underreporting is as much as 8.6 percent of GNP and 11.1 percent of total tax revenue.
{"title":"A Measure of the Shadow Economy in a Small Economy: Evidence from Household‐Level Expenditure Patterns","authors":"Tufan Ekici, Mustafa Besim","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12138","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we measure the size of the shadow economy in North Cyprus by using micro-econometric approaches and then calculate its implications on national accounts and fiscal balances. There is a relatively new strand of literature that focuses on comparing income-expenditure patterns of households to calculate the degree of underreporting of income levels by self-employed and privately employed individuals, as compared with public servants. We use the 2008 Household Budget Survey of North Cyprus and analyze the differences in food consumption patterns among three kinds of employees: self-employed, privately employed, and public. We found that self‐employed and privately employed individuals underreport their income levels by 20 percent and 13 percent, respectively, compared with publicly employed individuals. This has important implications for the aggregate economy in North Cyprus, where we estimate that the shadow economy created by underreporting is as much as 8.6 percent of GNP and 11.1 percent of total tax revenue.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115371107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The quantum macroeconomics theory is formulated for the first time, assuming that the business cycle has the discrete-time oscillations spectrum in analogy with the electronics excitations discrete-time spectrum in the Bohr’s atom model in the quantum physics. The quantum macroeconomics theory postulates that the discrete-time transitions from one level of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) to another level of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) will occur in the nonlinear dynamic economic systems at the time, when: 1) The land, labour and capital resources are added / released to the production/service processes in the form of quanta; 2) The disruptive scientific/technological/financial/social/political innovation is introduced, creating the resonance conditions necessary to amplify/attenuate the value of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t), during the evolution process of the nonlinear dynamic economic system in the time domain. The authors think that the general information product on the time GIP((t), the general domestic product on the time GDP(t), and the general national product on the time GNP(t), are the discrete-time digital signals (the Ledenyov discrete-time digital waves with the Markov information) in distinction from the continuous-time signals (the Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznets, Kondratieff continuous waves), because of the discrete-time nature of the disruptive scientific/technological/financial/social/political innovations. The authors apply the quantum macroeconomics theory to research and develop a new software program for the accurate characterization and forecasting of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) dependences changes in the economies of scales and scopes in the time domain for the use by the central / commercial banks.
{"title":"Quantum Macroeconomics Theory","authors":"D. Ledenyov, Viktor O. Ledenyov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2627086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2627086","url":null,"abstract":"The quantum macroeconomics theory is formulated for the first time, assuming that the business cycle has the discrete-time oscillations spectrum in analogy with the electronics excitations discrete-time spectrum in the Bohr’s atom model in the quantum physics. The quantum macroeconomics theory postulates that the discrete-time transitions from one level of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) to another level of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) will occur in the nonlinear dynamic economic systems at the time, when: 1) The land, labour and capital resources are added / released to the production/service processes in the form of quanta; 2) The disruptive scientific/technological/financial/social/political innovation is introduced, creating the resonance conditions necessary to amplify/attenuate the value of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t), during the evolution process of the nonlinear dynamic economic system in the time domain. The authors think that the general information product on the time GIP((t), the general domestic product on the time GDP(t), and the general national product on the time GNP(t), are the discrete-time digital signals (the Ledenyov discrete-time digital waves with the Markov information) in distinction from the continuous-time signals (the Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznets, Kondratieff continuous waves), because of the discrete-time nature of the disruptive scientific/technological/financial/social/political innovations. The authors apply the quantum macroeconomics theory to research and develop a new software program for the accurate characterization and forecasting of GIP((t), GDP(t), GNP(t) dependences changes in the economies of scales and scopes in the time domain for the use by the central / commercial banks.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114362449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dodo J. Thampapillai, Y. Chen, Christopher Ivo Bacani, Omer F. Baris
This paper illustrates a simple method to elicit the income accounts in the context of incomplete macroeconomic data. The method the enables the display of widely used factor utilization function in macroeconomics. The analysis of this function with reference to four Central Asian economies (Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan) provides the basis for studying factor shares of income and the relative contributions of factors to economic growth.
{"title":"Display of Factor -- Utilization in Central Asia","authors":"Dodo J. Thampapillai, Y. Chen, Christopher Ivo Bacani, Omer F. Baris","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2599374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2599374","url":null,"abstract":"This paper illustrates a simple method to elicit the income accounts in the context of incomplete macroeconomic data. The method the enables the display of widely used factor utilization function in macroeconomics. The analysis of this function with reference to four Central Asian economies (Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan) provides the basis for studying factor shares of income and the relative contributions of factors to economic growth.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125709742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In H1 2014, the business activities in the Russian economy were characterized by slowdown of growth rates of the external demand on goods of the Russian export and termination of growth in domestic demand. In H1 2014, a 2.8% reduction of investments in capital assets and the minimum growth of 2.7% in the retail trade volume in the past 4.5 years as compared to the respective period of the previous year had a negative eff ect on the domestic market. A positive factor of the current year was a renewal of industrial growth with advanced rates of development of manufacturing.
{"title":"Russia's Real Sector of Economy: Factors and Trends in H1 2014","authors":"O. Izryadnova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2494922","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2494922","url":null,"abstract":"In H1 2014, the business activities in the Russian economy were characterized by slowdown of growth rates of the external demand on goods of the Russian export and termination of growth in domestic demand. In H1 2014, a 2.8% reduction of investments in capital assets and the minimum growth of 2.7% in the retail trade volume in the past 4.5 years as compared to the respective period of the previous year had a negative eff ect on the domestic market. A positive factor of the current year was a renewal of industrial growth with advanced rates of development of manufacturing.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131278245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Maddison Project, initiated in March 2010 by a group of close colleagues of Angus Maddison, aims to develop an effective system of cooperation between scholars to continue Maddison's work on measuring economic performance in the world economy. This article is a first product of the project. Its goal is to explain the aims and approach of the project, and, as a first result of this ‘collaboratory’, to inventory recent research on historical national accounts. We also briefly discuss some of the problems related to these historical statistics and we extend and where necessary revise the estimates published by Maddison in his latest overviews. Most new work relates to the period before 1820; it leads to a reassessment of levels of GDP per capita in western Europe in the early modern period, and to a confirmation of Maddison's previous estimates of Asian levels of real income.
{"title":"The Maddison Project: Collaborative Research on Historical National Accounts","authors":"J. Bolt, J. L. van Zanden","doi":"10.1111/1468-0289.12032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0289.12032","url":null,"abstract":"The Maddison Project, initiated in March 2010 by a group of close colleagues of Angus Maddison, aims to develop an effective system of cooperation between scholars to continue Maddison's work on measuring economic performance in the world economy. This article is a first product of the project. Its goal is to explain the aims and approach of the project, and, as a first result of this ‘collaboratory’, to inventory recent research on historical national accounts. We also briefly discuss some of the problems related to these historical statistics and we extend and where necessary revise the estimates published by Maddison in his latest overviews. Most new work relates to the period before 1820; it leads to a reassessment of levels of GDP per capita in western Europe in the early modern period, and to a confirmation of Maddison's previous estimates of Asian levels of real income.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115246787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge equation" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using current vintage data, out-of-sample GDPNow model forecasts are found to be more accurate than a number of statistical benchmarks since 2000. Using real-time data since the second-half of 2011, GDPNow model forecasts are found to be only slightly inferior to consensus near-term GDP forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The forecast error variance of GDP growth for each of the GDPNow model, Blue Chip, and the Federal Reserve staff's Green Book is decomposed as the sum of the forecast error covariances for the contributions to growth of the subcomponents of GDP. The decompositions show that "net exports" and "change in private inventories" are particularly difficult subcomponents to nowcast.
本文记录了国内生产总值(GDP)增长的“临近预测”模型GDPNow，该模型综合了将GDP子成分与月度源数据联系起来的“桥式方程”方法和Giannone、Reichlin和Small(2008)使用的因子模型方法。GDPNow模型采用美国经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)使用的链式加权方法，将构成GDP的13个子成分相加，从而预测GDP增长。使用当前的古数据，发现样本外的GDPNow模型预测比2000年以来的一些统计基准更准确。使用2011年下半年以来的实时数据，发现GDPNow模型的预测仅略低于蓝筹经济指标的近期GDP预测。将GDPNow模型、蓝筹股和美联储工作人员绿皮书对GDP增长的预测误差方差分解为GDP各子成分对增长贡献的预测误差协方差之和。分解表明，“净出口”和“私人库存变化”是特别难以预测的子成分。
{"title":"GDPNow: A Model for GDP 'Nowcasting'","authors":"Patrick Higgins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2580350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2580350","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents GDPNow, a \"nowcasting\" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the \"bridge equation\" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using current vintage data, out-of-sample GDPNow model forecasts are found to be more accurate than a number of statistical benchmarks since 2000. Using real-time data since the second-half of 2011, GDPNow model forecasts are found to be only slightly inferior to consensus near-term GDP forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The forecast error variance of GDP growth for each of the GDPNow model, Blue Chip, and the Federal Reserve staff's Green Book is decomposed as the sum of the forecast error covariances for the contributions to growth of the subcomponents of GDP. The decompositions show that \"net exports\" and \"change in private inventories\" are particularly difficult subcomponents to nowcast.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127841196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we try to understand whether national accounts GDP per capita or survey mean income or consumption better proxy for true income per capita. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita versus survey means by comparing the evolution of each series to the evolution of satellite-recorded nighttime lights. Our main assumption, which is robust to a variety of specification checks, is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means. We obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income; these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means. We conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts, and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero. Using the estimated optimal weights, we compute estimates of true income per capita and $1/day poverty rates for the developing world and its regions. We get poverty estimates that are substantially lower and fall substantially faster than those of Chen and Ravallion (2010) or of the survey-based poverty literature more generally.
{"title":"Lights, Camera,... Income!: Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means, and Lights","authors":"M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2423393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2423393","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we try to understand whether national accounts GDP per capita or survey mean income or consumption better proxy for true income per capita. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita versus survey means by comparing the evolution of each series to the evolution of satellite-recorded nighttime lights. Our main assumption, which is robust to a variety of specification checks, is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means. We obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income; these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means. We conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts, and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero. Using the estimated optimal weights, we compute estimates of true income per capita and $1/day poverty rates for the developing world and its regions. We get poverty estimates that are substantially lower and fall substantially faster than those of Chen and Ravallion (2010) or of the survey-based poverty literature more generally.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127191260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I show how to use data from the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States to estimate how much funding of nonfinancial businesses, households, and governments is provided by the domestic shadow banking system. I define the shadow banking system as the set of entities and activities that provide short-term funding outside of the traditional commercial banking system, but I do not equate all nonbank funding with shadow banking. My results suggest that at the end of 2008, domestic shadow-bank funding of the nonfinancial sector was an important, but fairly modest source of funding relative to that provided by more traditional funding sources such as commercial banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. However,my results suggest that domestic shadow banking played a large role in the increase of nonfinancial-sector debt in the two years before 2008:Q4 and was, at least in an arithmetic sense,the entire reason for the slowdown in nonfinancial-sector debt growth after 2008. Domestic shadow-bank funding of the nonfinancial sector has increased since 2010, but remains well below the level seen right in late 2008.
{"title":"Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector","authors":"Joshua Gallin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2340684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2340684","url":null,"abstract":"I show how to use data from the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States to estimate how much funding of nonfinancial businesses, households, and governments is provided by the domestic shadow banking system. I define the shadow banking system as the set of entities and activities that provide short-term funding outside of the traditional commercial banking system, but I do not equate all nonbank funding with shadow banking. My results suggest that at the end of 2008, domestic shadow-bank funding of the nonfinancial sector was an important, but fairly modest source of funding relative to that provided by more traditional funding sources such as commercial banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. However,my results suggest that domestic shadow banking played a large role in the increase of nonfinancial-sector debt in the two years before 2008:Q4 and was, at least in an arithmetic sense,the entire reason for the slowdown in nonfinancial-sector debt growth after 2008. Domestic shadow-bank funding of the nonfinancial sector has increased since 2010, but remains well below the level seen right in late 2008.","PeriodicalId":135206,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Measurement & Data on National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130972185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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