The monocentric city framework is generalized to comprise a system of metros. A "representative" closed metro calibrates parameters and establishes a reservation utility and perimeter land price that must be matched by open metros. The open metros are assumed to have exogenous productivity below and above that in the representative metro. For a given level of productivity, transportation technology proves to be the most important quantitative determinant of population, land area, population density, and house prices across and within metros. Changes in highway capacity primarily affect these quantities while leaving commute speeds unchanged. Open metro land area asymptotes to a maximum at only moderately high relative productivity. Open metro land area and population fall to near zero at only moderately low relative productivity. Individuals with long commutes who are required to work a fixed number of hours have a marginal value of leisure time that is far above their wage. The framework yields a number of quantitative insights into how preferences, production technologies, and transportation technologies shape outcomes within and across metros.
{"title":"A Quantitative System of Monocentric Metros","authors":"J. Rappaport","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2420204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2420204","url":null,"abstract":"The monocentric city framework is generalized to comprise a system of metros. A \"representative\" closed metro calibrates parameters and establishes a reservation utility and perimeter land price that must be matched by open metros. The open metros are assumed to have exogenous productivity below and above that in the representative metro. For a given level of productivity, transportation technology proves to be the most important quantitative determinant of population, land area, population density, and house prices across and within metros. Changes in highway capacity primarily affect these quantities while leaving commute speeds unchanged. Open metro land area asymptotes to a maximum at only moderately high relative productivity. Open metro land area and population fall to near zero at only moderately low relative productivity. Individuals with long commutes who are required to work a fixed number of hours have a marginal value of leisure time that is far above their wage. The framework yields a number of quantitative insights into how preferences, production technologies, and transportation technologies shape outcomes within and across metros.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121303967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Ewing, H. Richardson, K. Burch, A. Nelson, Christine Bae
This paper examines the relative merits of compact cities or urban sprawl (suburban settlement patterns) as a spatial solution to environmental problems (such as climate control), automobile dependence, economic development, infrastructure costs and the quality of urban life.
{"title":"Compactness vs. Sprawl Revisited: Converging Views","authors":"R. Ewing, H. Richardson, K. Burch, A. Nelson, Christine Bae","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2390552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2390552","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relative merits of compact cities or urban sprawl (suburban settlement patterns) as a spatial solution to environmental problems (such as climate control), automobile dependence, economic development, infrastructure costs and the quality of urban life.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117096629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many set of indicators are currently available to measure sustainability and the quality of life or well-being of the people. However, choice of the set of indicators can widely affect the ranking of a place in terms of the quality of life of the people. For example, Costa Rica ranks 1st in terms of the 2012 Happy Planet Index, but it ranks 69th in terms of the Human Development Index. The goal of this paper is to design a robust mechanism by combining several methodologies to assess the quality of life in a place. We used a small Canadian city, Kamloops, for our case study. This 311 square km city in Interior British Columbia has a population of about 87,000. MoneySense ranked it 44th and 64th best places to live in Canada in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The index that is too sensitive to annual fluctuations of a few indicators could be good for understanding short-run quality of life changes, but might not necessarily reflect the level of well-being and its sustainability in a place. In this paper, we have defined a methodology to select an appropriate set of indicators for Kamloops that would measure the average quality of life and its sustainability. With hundreds of global and regional quality of life and sustainability indicator initiatives, and many available methodologies, it is important for any city to choose the appropriate indicators and evaluation methods. Economists often use estimated monetary values of desired indicators to compute Genuine Progress Indicator, or such other quality of life or composite sustainability indices. Natural scientists, on the other hand, use only a few physical indicators for environmental sustainability assessment. We believe that both monetary and physical indicators are important components of any quality of life index, and therefore, have to be part of a comprehensive sustainability plan. A data aggregation method has been suggested in this paper for computing relatively more composite indices from the large number of quality of life and sustainability indicators. The absence of reliable and adequate data is a serious challenge in measuring the desired indicators. Due to data constraints, a complete assessment of the average quality of life and its sustainability in Kamloops is not possible at this time using our suggested methodology. However, the proposed methodology and the data compiled for this study are steps forward to a complete and systematic accounting of well-being, happiness, income, wealth, and sustainability indices for Kamloops. We have assessed the current Kamloops Sustainability Plan based on our proposed criteria. It is expected that this study will make different stakeholders in the City of Kamloops re-think about their sustainability plans, and will help contribute to make Kamloops a better place to live. The methodology recommended in this paper is general enough to be used for quality of life and sustainability assessment in any place.
{"title":"Challenges in Measuring Sustainability and the Quality of Life – The Case of a Small Canadian City","authors":"Hasnat Dewan","doi":"10.22217/UPI.2016.342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22217/UPI.2016.342","url":null,"abstract":"Many set of indicators are currently available to measure sustainability and the quality of life or well-being of the people. However, choice of the set of indicators can widely affect the ranking of a place in terms of the quality of life of the people. For example, Costa Rica ranks 1st in terms of the 2012 Happy Planet Index, but it ranks 69th in terms of the Human Development Index. The goal of this paper is to design a robust mechanism by combining several methodologies to assess the quality of life in a place. We used a small Canadian city, Kamloops, for our case study. This 311 square km city in Interior British Columbia has a population of about 87,000. MoneySense ranked it 44th and 64th best places to live in Canada in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The index that is too sensitive to annual fluctuations of a few indicators could be good for understanding short-run quality of life changes, but might not necessarily reflect the level of well-being and its sustainability in a place. In this paper, we have defined a methodology to select an appropriate set of indicators for Kamloops that would measure the average quality of life and its sustainability. With hundreds of global and regional quality of life and sustainability indicator initiatives, and many available methodologies, it is important for any city to choose the appropriate indicators and evaluation methods. Economists often use estimated monetary values of desired indicators to compute Genuine Progress Indicator, or such other quality of life or composite sustainability indices. Natural scientists, on the other hand, use only a few physical indicators for environmental sustainability assessment. We believe that both monetary and physical indicators are important components of any quality of life index, and therefore, have to be part of a comprehensive sustainability plan. A data aggregation method has been suggested in this paper for computing relatively more composite indices from the large number of quality of life and sustainability indicators. The absence of reliable and adequate data is a serious challenge in measuring the desired indicators. Due to data constraints, a complete assessment of the average quality of life and its sustainability in Kamloops is not possible at this time using our suggested methodology. However, the proposed methodology and the data compiled for this study are steps forward to a complete and systematic accounting of well-being, happiness, income, wealth, and sustainability indices for Kamloops. We have assessed the current Kamloops Sustainability Plan based on our proposed criteria. It is expected that this study will make different stakeholders in the City of Kamloops re-think about their sustainability plans, and will help contribute to make Kamloops a better place to live. The methodology recommended in this paper is general enough to be used for quality of life and sustainability assessment in any place.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128401749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the relationship between ‘post-politics’ and processes of rescaling enacted through planning reform. It centres empirically on the policy shift which has occurred in planning since the inception of the Planning Act 2008 – the new framework which will oversee the development of new nuclear power and other large-scale infrastructural developments in the UK. This act has radically altered the ways in which publics can engage with Government policy. Using interview data gathered from participants in recent nuclear power consultations, as well as participants in the old inquiry-based system of the 1980’s, it is argued that processes of rescaling through the Planning Act have diminished the ‘political opportunities’ available for certain non-governmental actors to intervene in the policy process. This has contributed to the post-politicisation of the planning framework in certain arenas, which raises significant questions concerning public engagement and democratic accountability within the wider context of the modernisation of planning. The potential consequences of these developments are discussed.
{"title":"Planning Reform, Rescaling, and the Construction of the Post-Political: The Case of the Planning Act 2008 and Nuclear Power Consultation in the UK.","authors":"P. Johnstone","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2736832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2736832","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the relationship between ‘post-politics’ and processes of rescaling enacted through planning reform. It centres empirically on the policy shift which has occurred in planning since the inception of the Planning Act 2008 – the new framework which will oversee the development of new nuclear power and other large-scale infrastructural developments in the UK. This act has radically altered the ways in which publics can engage with Government policy. Using interview data gathered from participants in recent nuclear power consultations, as well as participants in the old inquiry-based system of the 1980’s, it is argued that processes of rescaling through the Planning Act have diminished the ‘political opportunities’ available for certain non-governmental actors to intervene in the policy process. This has contributed to the post-politicisation of the planning framework in certain arenas, which raises significant questions concerning public engagement and democratic accountability within the wider context of the modernisation of planning. The potential consequences of these developments are discussed.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125082169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper describes our conceptualization of complexity in large infrastructure projects. Since complexity itself is an emergent concept that is hard to pin down, we focus on the relationship between various project features and properties associated with complexity such as difficulty, outcome variability and non-linearity, and (non) governability. We propose a combined structural and process-based theoretical framework for understanding contributors to complexity—the ‘House of Project Complexity’ (HoPC). The formulation of the HoPC draws from a rich projects literature and is developed iteratively by first applying it to two trial samples and then to the main data set of 20 detailed case studies of infrastructure projects prepared for the IMEC study. A main contribution of this work is the conceptual distinction in the HoPC between ‘inherent project features’, ‘architectural features’, and their relationship with project outcomes and emergent properties—the ‘ilities.’ A second contribution is the separa...
{"title":"House of Project Complexity - Understanding Complexity in Large Infrastructure Projects","authors":"D. Lessard, Vivek Sakhrani, Roger Miller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2259247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2259247","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes our conceptualization of complexity in large infrastructure projects. Since complexity itself is an emergent concept that is hard to pin down, we focus on the relationship between various project features and properties associated with complexity such as difficulty, outcome variability and non-linearity, and (non) governability. We propose a combined structural and process-based theoretical framework for understanding contributors to complexity—the ‘House of Project Complexity’ (HoPC). The formulation of the HoPC draws from a rich projects literature and is developed iteratively by first applying it to two trial samples and then to the main data set of 20 detailed case studies of infrastructure projects prepared for the IMEC study. A main contribution of this work is the conceptual distinction in the HoPC between ‘inherent project features’, ‘architectural features’, and their relationship with project outcomes and emergent properties—the ‘ilities.’ A second contribution is the separa...","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129165859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study how administrative boundaries and tax competition among asymmetric jurisdictions interact with the labor and land markets to determine the economic structure and performance of metropolitan areas. Contrary to general belief, cross-border commuting need not be welfare-decreasing in the presence of agglomeration economies that vary with the distribution of firms within the metropolitan area. Tax competition implies that the central business district is too small and prevents public policy enhancing global productivity to deliver their full impact. Although our results support the idea of decentralizing the provision of local public services by independent jurisdictions, they highlight the need of coordinating tax policies and the importance of the jurisdiction sizes within metropolitan areas.
{"title":"How to Make the Metropolitan Area Work? Neither Big Government, Nor Laissez-Faire","authors":"C. Gaigné, S. Riou, Jacques-François Thisse","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2254792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2254792","url":null,"abstract":"We study how administrative boundaries and tax competition among asymmetric jurisdictions interact with the labor and land markets to determine the economic structure and performance of metropolitan areas. Contrary to general belief, cross-border commuting need not be welfare-decreasing in the presence of agglomeration economies that vary with the distribution of firms within the metropolitan area. Tax competition implies that the central business district is too small and prevents public policy enhancing global productivity to deliver their full impact. Although our results support the idea of decentralizing the provision of local public services by independent jurisdictions, they highlight the need of coordinating tax policies and the importance of the jurisdiction sizes within metropolitan areas.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125153230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public transit accounts for only 1% of U.S. passenger miles traveled but nevertheless attracts strong public support. Using a simple choice model, we predict that transit riders are likely to be individuals who commute along routes with the most severe roadway delays. These individuals' choices thus have very high marginal impacts on congestion. We test this prediction with data from a sudden strike in 2003 by Los Angeles transit workers. Estimating a regression discontinuity design, we find that average highway delay increases 47% when transit service ceases. This effect is consistent with our model's predictions and many times larger than earlier estimates, which have generally concluded that public transit provides minimal congestion relief. We find that the net benefits of transit systems appear to be much larger than previously believed.
{"title":"Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion","authors":"Michael L. Anderson","doi":"10.1257/AER.104.9.2763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.104.9.2763","url":null,"abstract":"Public transit accounts for only 1% of U.S. passenger miles traveled but nevertheless attracts strong public support. Using a simple choice model, we predict that transit riders are likely to be individuals who commute along routes with the most severe roadway delays. These individuals' choices thus have very high marginal impacts on congestion. We test this prediction with data from a sudden strike in 2003 by Los Angeles transit workers. Estimating a regression discontinuity design, we find that average highway delay increases 47% when transit service ceases. This effect is consistent with our model's predictions and many times larger than earlier estimates, which have generally concluded that public transit provides minimal congestion relief. We find that the net benefits of transit systems appear to be much larger than previously believed.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133269594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the possible implications for real options models if developers are risk averse when exercising development options. In our empirical tests using data on first-price auctions of state lands in Singapore, we found evidence of risk aversion among developers, which supports the results of the auction experiments. We derive risk-aversion indices that are discernible from the winner’s curse effects with respect to the auction data and test the predictability of the indices on the developers’ time to development decisions. Our empirical results show that the developers mitigate risks by exercising their development options earlier in the process; thus, the risk neutrality assumption is rejected. According to our results, the developers’ early exercise of development options is not induced by a preemptive motive but is driven by a risk-averse attitude.
{"title":"Risk-Aversion and Urban Land Development Options","authors":"Gang-Zhi Fan, Ming Pu, T. Sing, Xiaoyu Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2040837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2040837","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the possible implications for real options models if developers are risk averse when exercising development options. In our empirical tests using data on first-price auctions of state lands in Singapore, we found evidence of risk aversion among developers, which supports the results of the auction experiments. We derive risk-aversion indices that are discernible from the winner’s curse effects with respect to the auction data and test the predictability of the indices on the developers’ time to development decisions. Our empirical results show that the developers mitigate risks by exercising their development options earlier in the process; thus, the risk neutrality assumption is rejected. According to our results, the developers’ early exercise of development options is not induced by a preemptive motive but is driven by a risk-averse attitude.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134352702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The comparison of cities by indicators covering several topics of urban life is crucial for policy decisions such as funding allocation for urban development. Simply adding up a high number of indicators to one single index evokes reasonable criticism due to opacity and very limited interpretation possibilities. Nevertheless, the same arguments can be made against using large sets of disaggregated indicators for city comparison. This paper helps to steer a middle course by identifying of a small number of relevant indicators to determine quality of life differences. The basis of this analysis is the Urban Audit Key Indicator Set which is provided by the Eurostat database and consists of 46 indicators covering different aspects of urban life. Principal Component Analysis reveals a small number of indicators which have a high impact on the overall differences between the selected cities of each of the ten countries and five time frames that were analysed. This study extends the general application of Principal Component Analysis for regional clustering by the combination of 244 partial analyses to identify determining indicators of urban differences. The results show that a small set of indicators, which are often among the most relevant determinants, can be identified. Those selected indicators are spread over the initial groups representing environmental, human, manufactured and social urban capital as well as demographic aspects. They cover current political debates on environmental, infrastructural and migration difficulties in cities, safety and especially security impairment due to anonymity and poverty in densely populated areas as well as population changes leading to space shortage in larger cities but also abandonment in small cities. Applying this method to wider data sets seems promising as it might lead to important insights which could impact policy measures on urban development and its funding allocation processes.
{"title":"Determining Indicators of Quality of Life Differences in European Cities","authors":"Wolfgang Breuer, Dominique Brueser","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2124984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2124984","url":null,"abstract":"The comparison of cities by indicators covering several topics of urban life is crucial for policy decisions such as funding allocation for urban development. Simply adding up a high number of indicators to one single index evokes reasonable criticism due to opacity and very limited interpretation possibilities. Nevertheless, the same arguments can be made against using large sets of disaggregated indicators for city comparison. This paper helps to steer a middle course by identifying of a small number of relevant indicators to determine quality of life differences. The basis of this analysis is the Urban Audit Key Indicator Set which is provided by the Eurostat database and consists of 46 indicators covering different aspects of urban life. Principal Component Analysis reveals a small number of indicators which have a high impact on the overall differences between the selected cities of each of the ten countries and five time frames that were analysed. This study extends the general application of Principal Component Analysis for regional clustering by the combination of 244 partial analyses to identify determining indicators of urban differences. The results show that a small set of indicators, which are often among the most relevant determinants, can be identified. Those selected indicators are spread over the initial groups representing environmental, human, manufactured and social urban capital as well as demographic aspects. They cover current political debates on environmental, infrastructural and migration difficulties in cities, safety and especially security impairment due to anonymity and poverty in densely populated areas as well as population changes leading to space shortage in larger cities but also abandonment in small cities. Applying this method to wider data sets seems promising as it might lead to important insights which could impact policy measures on urban development and its funding allocation processes.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126383749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2012-08-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00674.x
C. Arndt, P. Chinowsky, K. Strzepek, J. Thurlow
Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate–infrastructure model based on stressor–response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy‐wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long‐run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.
{"title":"Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique","authors":"C. Arndt, P. Chinowsky, K. Strzepek, J. Thurlow","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00674.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00674.x","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate–infrastructure model based on stressor–response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy‐wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long‐run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.","PeriodicalId":135506,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: Urban Design & Planning (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114503546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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