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Variations and comparisons in hourly and daily precipitation extremes over eastern China in recent warming periods 最近变暖时期中国东部地区小时和日极端降水量的变化与比较
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8632
Yimeng Qi, Danqing Huang, Jiao Chen, Jinwen Zeng, Anqi Liu

Under global warming, a notable intensification of precipitation extremes has posed significant threats to both natural ecosystems and human societies. However, there is still a lack of systematic studies on the variability of hourly precipitation extremes and a comparison with daily precipitation extremes. This study introduces a set of indices for hourly and daily precipitation extremes to systematically examine the changes across eastern China during the summers from 1980 to 2020. The results show that southern China is the sensitive regions with a notable large value of climatology in frequency and intensity for both of hourly and daily precipitation extremes. For the trends, the frequency of hourly precipitation extremes shows a rising trend in southern China, and intensity increased in northern China. Conversely, for daily precipitation extremes, the enhanced intensity and frequency are observed only in southeastern China. Additionally, the eastern coastal area experiences prolonged hourly rainfall with increasing persistence, while the region with an increased duration of daily precipitation is situated further south. Comparing the periods 1980–1999 and 2000–2020, precipitation extremes shift toward more intense and more frequent, with more pronounced variations at the hourly scale. Notably, northeastern China tend to be more intense and shorter-lived hourly precipitation extremes after 1999, while south China experiences more frequent and longer-lasting extremes. These changes are partly attributed to the increased unstable conditions, enhanced convective available potential energy and weakened convective inhibition.

在全球变暖的情况下,极端降水的明显加剧对自然生态系统和人类社会都构成了重大威胁。然而,目前仍缺乏对小时极端降水变化的系统研究,以及与日极端降水的比较。本研究引入了一套小时和日极端降水量指数,系统研究了 1980-2020 年间中国东部地区夏季极端降水量的变化。研究结果表明,华南地区是极端降水的敏感区域,极端降水的小时频率和日强度的气候学值均显著偏大。从趋势上看,华南地区极端小时降水频率呈上升趋势,华北地区极端日降水强度呈上升趋势。相反,日极端降水的强度和频率仅在中国东南部出现增强。此外,东部沿海地区的小时降水持续时间延长,而日降水持续时间延长的区域则位于更靠南的地区。比较 1980-1999 年和 2000-2020 年这两个时期,极端降水的强度和频率都在增加,小时尺度的变化也更加明显。值得注意的是,1999 年以后,中国东北地区的极端小时降水强度更大、持续时间更短,而中国南方的极端小时降水频率更高、持续时间更长。这些变化的部分原因是不稳定条件增加,对流可用势能增强,对流抑制减弱。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble forecasting of Indian Ocean Dipole events generated by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method 条件非线性最优扰动法产生的印度洋偶极子事件的集合预报
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8627
Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, Lei Hu, Ting Liu

In this study, we applied the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method to generate nonlinear fast-growing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting, aiming to assess the effectiveness of the CNOP method in improving the forecast skill of climate events. Our findings reveal a significant improvement in the forecast skill of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) within the CNOP ensemble forecast, particularly at long lead times, thereby extending the skilful forecast lead times. Notably, this improvement is more prominent for strong IOD events, with skilful forecast lead times exceeding 12 months, outperforming many current state-of-the-art coupled models. The high forecast skill of the CNOP method is primarily attributed to its ability to capture the uncertainties in the wind anomaly field in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) closely associated with IOD evolution. Consequently, CNOP ensemble members exhibit significant deviations from the control forecast, resulting in a large ensemble spread encompassing IOD evolution. Furthermore, a comparison with the climate-relevant singular vectors (CSV) method in terms of IOD and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions reveals the superior performance of the CNOP ensemble forecast. Despite the initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting being generated aimed at improving IOD forecast skill, the CNOP method significantly improves the forecast skill of both IOD and ENSO events, with a greater improvement for ENSO. Additionally, the CNOP ensemble forecast system provides more reliable estimates of forecast uncertainties and exhibits higher reliability with increasing lead times. In conclusion, the CNOP method effectively captures the nonlinear physical processes of climate events and improve the forecast skill.

在这项研究中,我们应用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法生成用于集合预报的非线性快速增长初始扰动,旨在评估CNOP方法在提高气候事件预报技能方面的有效性。我们的研究结果表明,在 CNOP 集合预报中,印度洋偶极子(IOD)的预报技能得到了显著提高,尤其是在长预报周期内,从而延长了预报周期。值得注意的是,这种改进在强印度洋偶极子事件中更为突出,娴熟的预报提前期超过了12个月,超过了许多当前最先进的耦合模式。CNOP 方法的高预报技能主要归功于其捕捉与 IOD 演变密切相关的东印度洋(EIO)风异常场不确定性的能力。因此,CNOP 的集合成员与对照预报有很大偏差,导致集合范围很大,涵盖了 IOD 的演变。此外,与气候相关奇异矢量(CSV)方法在 IOD 和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)预测方面的比较显示,CNOP 集合预测的性能更优越。尽管生成集合预测的初始扰动是为了提高 IOD 的预测技能,但 CNOP 方法显著提高了 IOD 和 ENSO 事件的预测技能,对 ENSO 的提高更大。此外,CNOP 集合预报系统提供了更可靠的预报不确定性估计,并且随着准备时间的延长,可靠性更高。总之,CNOP 方法有效地捕捉了气候事件的非线性物理过程,提高了预报技能。
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引用次数: 0
Three-dimensional evaluation framework of hazard–exposure–vulnerability for mapping heatwave risk and associated dominant dimensions in China 绘制中国热浪风险及相关主导维度的 "危害-暴露-脆弱性 "三维评估框架
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8628
Jinping Liu, Tongchang Zhang, Yanqun Ren, Patrick Willems, Ali Mirchi, Arfan Arshad, Tie Liu, Quoc Bao Pham

In the context of global warming, the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwave events have markedly increased, bearing profound implications for both natural ecosystems and human societies. To effectively cope with this challenge, it is imperative to accurately identify and comprehensively assess the risks posed by heatwaves. This study undertakes a systematic approach and robust methodology to assess heatwave risks by leveraging a diverse array of data sources—encompassing remote sensing, statistical analyses. The methodology integrates the risk triangle theory alongside established risk assessment frameworks laid out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Employing a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, we unravel spatial–temporal patterns, high-risk zones, and dominant dimensions of heatwave risks contributing to potential disasters. Results indicated that during 1999–2008, roughly 27% of the study areas were affected by high and above risk levels of heatwaves, and the areas with high and very high hazard, exposure, and vulnerability accounted for approximately 19.5%, 10%, and 32.5%, respectively. During 2009–2018, the proportion of areas with high and very high risk, hazard, and exposure increased to about 31%, 26%, and 14%, respectively, while the percentage of areas with high and very high vulnerability decreased to about 24.43%. Notably, Xinjiang and the western part of Northwestern China are characterized by hazard-dominant conditions, while Southern China's risk profile has shifted from 1999–2008 to 2009–2018 from high hazard and vulnerability conditions to a more complex interaction involving hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Moreover, Northern China and the northern segment of Southwestern China exhibit simultaneous high-risk rankings across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability dimensions, forming a comprehensive high-risk zone. These findings characterize heatwave risk patterns and offer critical insights for risk management decisions, guiding effective disaster prevention and relief measures to ensure socio-economic stability and public health.

在全球变暖的背景下,热浪事件的频率、强度和持续时间明显增加,对自然生态系统和人类社会都产生了深远的影响。为了有效应对这一挑战,必须准确识别和全面评估热浪带来的风险。本研究采用系统的方法和稳健的方法论,通过利用包括遥感、统计分析在内的各种数据源来评估热浪风险。该方法将风险三角理论与政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)制定的既定风险评估框架相结合。我们采用了一个包括危害、暴露和脆弱性的三维评估框架,揭示了热浪风险的时空模式、高风险区和导致潜在灾害的主要因素。结果表明,在 1999-2008 年期间,约有 27% 的研究地区受到高及以上热浪风险水平的影响,其中高和极高危害、高暴露和高脆弱性地区分别约占 19.5%、10% 和 32.5%。2009-2018 年间,高风险和极高风险、高危害和高暴露地区的比例分别上升至约 31%、26% 和 14%,而高脆弱和极高脆弱地区的比例则下降至约 24.43%。值得注意的是,新疆和西北地区西部以灾害为主,而从 1999-2008 年到 2009-2018 年,华南地区的风险状况已从高风险和高脆弱性转变为涉及灾害、暴露和脆弱性的更复杂的相互作用。此外,华北地区和西南地区北部同时表现出灾害、暴露和脆弱性方面的高风险等级,形成了一个综合高风险区。这些研究结果描述了热浪风险模式的特征,为风险管理决策提供了重要启示,指导采取有效的防灾救灾措施,确保社会经济稳定和公众健康。
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引用次数: 0
Near-surface wind variability in Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region, East Antarctica: A four-decade SOM analysis 南极洲东部普里兹湾和阿梅里冰架地区的近地表风变化:四十年 SOM 分析
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8624
Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Enzhao Xiao, Tijun Zhang, Bo Sun

Near-surface wind fields in the Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica play a crucial role in the formation and variability of Antarctic Bottom Water, a cold, dense water mass that sinks and spreads across the deep ocean basins influencing ocean circulation and modulating earth's climate system. This study investigates the primary modes of variability of these wind fields using the self-organizing map (SOM) method and data from the latest version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalyses (ERA5), spanning four decades from 1979 to 2020. While the wind field climatology, characterized by small seasonal variation, is dominated by katabatic and large-scale forcing, the spatial patterns of the primary variability modes are mainly influenced by synoptic system activities. The overall trend in annual wind speed anomalies is positive across the study region, with the exception of the southwestern part and central Prydz Bay. However, significant trends are observed in only two out of nine SOM nodes (nodes 4 and 9), which collectively explain less than 30% of the averaged trends over the region. The interannual variability in the seasonal occurrences of certain nodes is linked to several well-known climate modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and Zonal Wavenumber 3. Our results provide a reference for forecasting the occurrence frequency of specific patterns, which could help mitigate the impact of extreme wind events through improved forecasting.

南极洲东部普里兹湾和阿梅里冰架地区的近地表风场对南极底层水的形成和变化起着至关重要的作用,南极底层水是一种低温、致密的水团,会下沉并扩散到深海盆地,影响海洋环流并调节地球气候系统。本研究利用自组织图(SOM)方法和最新版欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)再分析(ERA5)数据,研究了这些风场的主要变化模式,时间跨度从 1979 年到 2020 年的 40 年。风场气候学的特点是季节变化较小,主要受卡巴塔气流和大尺度强迫的影响,而主要变率模式的空间模式主要受切变系统活动的影响。除西南部和普里兹湾中部外,整个研究区域的年风速异常总体趋势为正。然而,在九个 SOM 节点中,只有两个(节点 4 和节点 9)观察到了明显的趋势,这两个节点合起来解释了该区域不到 30% 的平均趋势。某些节点季节性出现的年际变化与几种著名的气候模式有关,包括厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、南方环流模式和地带性波数 3。我们的研究结果为预报特定模式的出现频率提供了参考,有助于通过改进预报来减轻极端风事件的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Human activities increased compound drought and heat events over China during 1961–2014 1961-2014 年间人类活动增加了中国上空的复合干旱和高温事件
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8625
Xiaoxin Wang, Xianmei Lang, Dabang Jiang

Compared to independent drought or extreme heat events, compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can pose more adverse impacts on ecosystems and human society. As the anthropogenic influence on CDHEs in China remains largely unquantified, we analyse both observed and simulated changes in the occurrence of CDHEs over China from 1961 to 2014, and perform detection and attribution analyses utilizing an optimal fingerprinting method, based on observations, reanalysis data and numerical experiments from seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Upward trends are found in observed CDHEs during 1961–2014 over the majority of China, especially in the last two decades. The increase in CDHEs is largely attributed to human influence. Anthropogenic forcing is detectable in the observed CDHEs changes in the whole China and its eastern region. Furthermore, a three-signal analysis indicates that greenhouse gases play a key role in increasing CDHEs over China, while natural forcing has a negligible effect. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions also play a detectable role in offsetting the greenhouse gas-induced increase of CDHEs over China.

与独立的干旱或极端高温事件相比,复合干旱和高温事件(CDHEs)会对生态系统和人类社会造成更加不利的影响。由于人为因素对中国干旱和高温复合事件的影响在很大程度上尚未量化,我们基于观测数据、再分析数据和七个耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)模式的数值试验,分析了1961-2014年中国干旱和高温复合事件发生的观测和模拟变化,并利用最优指纹法进行了探测和归因分析。1961-2014年期间,中国大部分地区观测到的CDHEs呈上升趋势,尤其是在最近二十年。CDHEs 的增加在很大程度上归因于人类影响。在整个中国及其东部地区观测到的 CDHEs 变化中,可以检测到人为强迫。此外,三信号分析表明,温室气体对中国上空 CDHEs 的增加起着关键作用,而自然强迫的影响微乎其微。人为气溶胶排放在抵消温室气体引起的中国上空 CDHEs 增加方面也发挥了可探测的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Unravelling the performance of atmospheric radiative transfer schemes in the simulation of mean surface climate in Central Africa using the RegCM5 climate model 利用 RegCM5 气候模型模拟中部非洲平均地表气候过程中大气辐射传输方案的性能解析
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8611
E. E. Djouka Kankeu, A. J. Komkoua Mbienda, P. C. Choumbou, G. M. Guenang, G. P. Demanou Koudjou, C. Mbane Mbioule

The theory of radiative transfer in the atmosphere is crucial in the study of climate, because radiative exchanges are at the origin of the atmospheric dynamics. It is therefore important to evaluate this phenomenon in order to be able to take effective measures to tackle climate change. The objective of this work is to evaluate the capability of the RegCM5 climate model to reproduce radiative transfer over Central Africa. The analysis is carried out over a 10-year period, from January 2002 to December 2011 preceded by 1 year as spin-up. RegCM5 model were evaluated using the ERA5 dataset for the radiative transfer parameters (the shortwave radiation [SWR], longwave radiation [LWR], cloud cover [CLT], surface albedo [ALB] and surface temperature), as well as CHIRPS dataset for precipitation. Three subregions were identified for more specific analysis of the model, namely the Sahel, Congo basin and Cameroon highlands. Two radiative schemes were used: the radiative scheme of the community climate model (CCM) and Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM). The assessment of radiative transfer parameters was carried out by examining their seasonal variability and annual cycles using data from two RegCM5 experiments, RegCM5-CCM3 and RegCM5-RRTM. Before this assessment, a sensibility analysis to convective schemes carried out with the default RegCM5 radiative scheme (CCM3) shows that Grell scheme with Arakawa and Shulber closure is the best scheme to represent key radiation parameters (LWR and SWR). This convective scheme is therefore used for assessing the two Radiative transfer schemes. Results show that both RegCM5 experiments simulate relatively well the variables linked to radiative transfer for the four seasons of the year. However, RegCM5 with RRTM as radiative scheme depicts better performance over all subregions and seasons, suggesting that the choice of this scheme does not depend on land cover, topography and rainfall regimes in a complex region such as Central Africa.

大气中的辐射传递理论对气候研究至关重要,因为辐射交换是大气动力学的起源。因此,必须对这一现象进行评估,以便采取有效措施应对气候变化。这项工作的目的是评估 RegCM5 气候模式再现中部非洲辐射传递的能力。分析时间跨度为 10 年,从 2002 年 1 月至 2011 年 12 月,之前 1 年为启动期。使用ERA5 数据集对辐射传递参数(短波辐射[SWR]、长波辐射[LWR]、云量[CLT]、表面反照率[ALB]和表面温度)以及 CHIRPS 数据集对降水进行了评估。为对模型进行更具体的分析,确定了三个次区域,即萨赫勒、刚果盆地和喀麦隆高原。使用了两种辐射方案:社区气候模式(CCM)的辐射方案和快速辐射传递模式(RRTM)。通过使用 RegCM5-CCM3 和 RegCM5-RRTM 这两个实验的数据,对辐射传输参数的季节变化和年周期进行了评估。在进行评估之前,使用 RegCM5 默认辐射方案(CCM3)对对流方案进行的敏感性分析表明,具有荒川和舒尔伯闭合的 Grell 方案是表示关键辐射参数(LWR 和 SWR)的最佳方案。因此,该对流方案被用于评估两种辐射传输方案。结果表明,RegCM5 的两个实验都相对较好地模拟了一年四季与辐射传输相关的变量。不过,采用 RRTM 作为辐射方案的 RegCM5 在所有次区域和季节的表现都更好,这表明在像中非这样的复杂地区,该方案的选择并不取决于土地覆盖、地形和降雨机制。
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引用次数: 0
Local climate and trends in air mass-based weather types over the Arabian Peninsula 阿拉伯半岛当地气候和以气团为基础的天气类型趋势
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8631
Ali S. Alghamdi, John Harrington Jr.

Although previous research on climate change in the Arabian Peninsula (AP) has studied changes in individual meteorological variables, an analysis of changes in the overall weather conditions based on multiple meteorological variables is limited. Based on an air mass-based classification system, this research explored the local climate (1979–2023) of daily surface weather conditions (i.e., air masses) and associated changes over the Peninsula. For this purpose, the gridded weather typing classification (GWTC-2), an approach to classify multivariate surface weather situations relative to the average local climate, was utilized as it demonstrated outstanding performance in capturing daily weather characteristics in the Peninsula. Cold air mass (C), days with low temperature and near average humidity, was the most common cool weather type, with notable occurrences from Nov to Feb. Warm air mass (W), hot days with near average humidity, was the most common warm weather condition and maintained a marked presence throughout the year, with notable occurrences in summer. Coastal regions showed higher presences of humid warm (HW) and humid (H) days, whereas the central parts demonstrated higher occurrences of air masses of below-average humidity (dry [D], dry cold [DC], and dry warm [DW]). Much of the Peninsula showed high intra-annual variability in cool, warm, humid, and dry air masses. Findings from trend analysis reinforce findings from previous studies related to ongoing warming over the Peninsula, as cool weather types (DC, C, and HC) are becoming less frequent, while warm weather types (W, DW, and HW) are becoming more frequent. This analysis further detected decreases in the average weather conditions along with reduced duration of C-type and increases in the length of warm weather types, further aggravating thermal stress across the AP.

虽然以往有关阿拉伯半岛(AP)气候变化的研究对单个气象变量的变化进行了研究,但基于多个气象变量对整体天气条件变化的分析却很有限。本研究以基于气团的分类系统为基础,探讨了半岛地区每日地表天气状况(即气团)的局部气候(1979-2023 年)及相关变化。为此,我们采用了网格天气类型分类法(GWTC-2),这是一种相对于当地平均气候对多变量地面天气情况进行分类的方法,因为它在捕捉半岛的日常天气特征方面表现出色。冷气团(C)是指气温低且湿度接近平均值的日子,是最常见的凉爽天气类型,在 11 月至次年 2 月期间显著出现。暖气团(W)是指气温高且湿度接近平均值的日子,是最常见的温暖天气条件,在全年都显著存在,在夏季显著出现。沿海地区湿暖(HW)和湿润(H)天数较多,而中部地区湿度低于平均水平的气团(干燥[D]、干冷[DC]和干热[DW])出现率较高。半岛大部分地区的冷气团、暖气团、湿气团和干气团的年内变率较高。趋势分析的结果加强了之前与半岛持续变暖有关的研究结果,因为凉爽天气类型(DC、C 和 HC)的出现频率越来越低,而温暖天气类型(W、DW 和 HW)的出现频率越来越高。这项分析进一步发现,平均天气条件下降,C 类天气持续时间缩短,暖天气持续时间增加,进一步加剧了整个半岛的热应力。
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引用次数: 0
Synergistic interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves in the Greater Kuala Lumpur and surrounding areas 大吉隆坡及周边地区城市热岛与热浪之间的协同互动关系
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8614
Sharifah Faridah Syed Mahbar, Hiroyuki Kusaka

The synergistic interactions between urban heat islands (UHI) and heat waves (HW) continue to be debated. Despite the expectations of UHI intensification during HW, several studies have demonstrated variations. Notably, there is a dearth of investigations concerning the UHI–HW synergy in tropical climate cities amidst the escalating trend of more frequent and severe HW in Southeast Asia. To address this gap, our study aimed to investigate the synergies between the UHI and HW phenomena in Greater Kuala Lumpur (GKL) and its surrounding areas. We employed the advanced research version 4.2.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM), to examine the impact of UHI during two heat wave events in 2016 (Case 1) and 2020 (Case 2), against the periods immediately before and after these events, which we refer to as Pre-Post HW (PPHW), in GKL. An elevated UHI intensity (UHII) was evident during the HW in both observations and simulations, with a noticeable distinction particularly observed in Case 1. During HW, observed data indicates average UHII peaks at 1.8°C (0100 LST (UTC+8)) and 1.7°C (1500 LST) in Cases 1 and 2, respectively. In contrast, those for PPHW days for Cases 1 and 2 are 1.5°C (0000 LST) and 1.2°C (0100 LST), respectively. The maximum observed heat loads are likely to occur at noon, reaching 2.3°C at 1600 LST in Case 1 and 3.7°C at 1500 LST in Case 2. LST stands for local standard time. Heat flux component analysis from the surface energy balance model confirmed the UHI–HW synergy. A notable difference in the Bowen Ratio between urban and rural areas highlights the effect of urbanisation on heat fluxes, potentially exacerbating urban discomfort during HW. Consistent across all measurement methods, the evidence indicates a clear and positive synergy between the UHI and HW in the GKL. This study can potentially deliver valuable insights, especially in urban planning, where the implications of weather events are substantial.

城市热岛(UHI)与热浪(HW)之间的协同互动问题一直备受争议。尽管人们预期在热浪期间 UHI 会增强,但一些研究表明两者之间存在差异。值得注意的是,在东南亚地区热浪日益频繁和严重的趋势下,有关热带气候城市的 UHI-HW 协同作用的研究却十分匮乏。为了填补这一空白,我们的研究旨在调查大吉隆坡(GKL)及其周边地区的 UHI 与 HW 现象之间的协同作用。我们采用气象研究与预测(WRF)模型的高级研究版本 4.2.2,并结合单层城市冠层模型(UCM),研究了 2016 年(案例 1)和 2020 年(案例 2)两次热浪事件期间 UHI 对大吉隆坡的影响,以及紧接这些事件之前和之后的时期(我们称之为前-后热浪(PPHW))。在观测和模拟结果中,HW 期间的 UHI 强度(UHII)都明显升高,尤其是在情况 1 中观察到明显的差异。观测数据显示,在高纬度期间,观测案例 1 和案例 2 的平均 UHII 峰值分别为 1.8°C (0100 LST (UTC+8)) 和 1.7°C (1500 LST)。相比之下,情况 1 和情况 2 的 PPHW 日的峰值分别为 1.5°C (0000 LST) 和 1.2°C (0100 LST)。观测到的最大热负荷可能出现在中午,情况 1 在 1600 LST 时达到 2.3°C ,情况 2 在 1500 LST 时达到 3.7°C。LST 代表当地标准时间。地表能量平衡模式的热通量成分分析证实了特高气温-暖气协同作用。城市和农村地区之间的鲍文比存在明显差异,这凸显了城市化对热通量的影响,可能会加剧高温天气期间城市居民的不适感。所有测量方法都一致表明,在大九龙地区,特高气温指数与高湿度之间存在明显的正向协同作用。这项研究有可能提供有价值的见解,特别是在城市规划方面,因为天气事件的影响是巨大的。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal changes in tourism climate comfort in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2022 1961-2022年四川省旅游气候舒适度的时空变化
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8626
Hongguo Wang, Guohua Liu, Fangying Wu, Ziyu Chen

Based on the daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, sunshine hours and precipitation in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2022, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of tourism climate comfort in Sichuan Province were analysed using the temperature–humidity index (THI), precipitation index (P), sunshine duration index (SSD), wind chill index (WCI) and tourism climate index (TCI). The results show that the average annual TCI in Sichuan Province over the past 62 years is “acceptable” or above and shows a significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.018 per decade. On average, the best travel comfort period in Sichuan Province is from March to May and from October to November. The TCI increased significantly in cold seasons such as February and November with rates of 0.064 and 0.053 per decade, respectively. The increase in TCI is mainly controlled by the increase in THI and WCI, both of which are related to the increase in temperature, with a greater effect in cold seasons and at higher elevations. Most of China's 5A-level tourist attractions in Sichuan Province (14 of 17) have an annual TCI of “acceptable” or better. Similarly, the top 3 months for climate comfort at these attractions tend to be March to May and October, with ratings reaching “good” or even “very good.” For the other three destinations, all characterized by glaciers and mountains, the top 3 months for climate comfort are concentrated in the warm months. The overall tourism climate comfort of Sichuan Province is increasing, and the climate is changing in a positive way for the tourism industry.

根据四川省1961-2022年的日气温、风速、相对湿度、日照时数和降水量,采用温湿度指数(THI)、降水量指数(P)、日照时数指数(SSD)、风寒指数(WCI)和旅游气候指数(TCI)分析了四川省旅游气候舒适度的时空变化特征。结果表明,四川省过去 62 年的年平均 TCI 均在 "可接受 "或以上,并以每十年 0.018 的速率呈显著上升趋势。平均而言,3 月至 5 月和 10 月至 11 月是四川省最佳旅行舒适度时段。在寒冷季节,如 2 月和 11 月,TCI 有明显增加,增长率分别为每十年 0.064 和 0.053。TCI的增加主要受THI和WCI增加的控制,两者都与气温升高有关,在寒冷季节和高海拔地区影响更大。四川省大部分中国 5A 级旅游景区(17 个景区中的 14 个)的年平均气温透明度指数为 "可接受 "或更高。同样,这些景点气候舒适度最高的 3 个月往往是 3-5 月和 10 月,评级达到 "良好 "甚至 "很好"。其他三个旅游景点均以冰川和高山为特色,气候舒适度最高的 3 个月集中在温暖的月份。四川省整体旅游气候舒适度在不断提高,气候的变化对旅游业的发展起到了积极的作用。
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引用次数: 0
China's Yangtze River basin is becoming the super heatwave centre in the East Asian monsoon regions 中国长江流域正成为东亚季风区的超级热浪中心
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8621
Jiang Wei, Ding Ting, Gao Hui, Lv Zhuozhuo

Different from the general heatwaves that mainly occur in southeastern China, the super heatwaves in China are concentrated mostly in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. Daily maximum temperature data over land from CPC/NOAA revealed that the basin has become the centre with the highest frequency increase of super heatwaves in the East Asian monsoon regions in the 21st century. Further analyses also indicted that the extent of super heatwaves in the basin has a much higher increasing rate than that of general heatwaves by using running thresholds. The westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) plays the most dominant role. Statistical results suggested that a 10-gpm increment of the geopotential height (GPH) over the basin leads to a 0.43°C increase in the regionally averaged maximum temperature. Additionally, spatial extent of the super heatwave may expand by approximately 4%. In contrast to the stable eastern boundary of the North Africa high, the western boundary of the WPSH has significantly expanded westward in the 21st century. This expansion has led to the enhancement of the GPH over the Yangtze River basin, resulting in the super heatwave centre due to the heat-dome effect. Projections from 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) suggest that the GPH over the Yangtze River basin will continue to strengthen throughout the 21st century. This implies that the Yangtze River basin will continue to be the centre of super heatwaves in East Asia monsoon region.

与主要发生在中国东南部的一般热浪不同,中国的超级热浪主要集中在长江流域的中下游。中国气象局/国家气象局的陆地日最高气温数据显示,长江流域已成为 21 世纪东亚季风区超级热浪增加频率最高的中心。进一步的分析还表明,通过使用运行阈值,盆地超级热浪的范围比一般热浪的范围有更高的增长率。西太平洋副热带高纬度(WPSH)的向西延伸起到了最主要的作用。统计结果表明,盆地上空的位势高度(GPH)每增加 10 克/分,区域平均最高气温就会上升 0.43 摄氏度。此外,超级热浪的空间范围可能扩大约 4%。与稳定的北非高原东部边界相比,21 世纪 WPSH 的西部边界明显向西扩展。这种扩张导致了长江流域上空 GPH 的增强,从而在热穹效应的作用下形成了超级热浪中心。在中度温室气体排放情景(SSP2-4.5)下,29 个耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段(CMIP6)模式的预测结果表明,长江流域上空的 GPH 将在整个 21 世纪持续增强。这意味着长江流域将继续成为东亚季风区超级热浪的中心。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Climatology
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