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Evidential time-to-event prediction with calibrated uncertainty quantification
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109403
Ling Huang , Yucheng Xing , Swapnil Mishra , Thierry Denœux , Mengling Feng
Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of confidence assessment, model robustness, and prediction calibration raises concerns about the reliability of predictions. To address these challenges, we propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction. Our approach computes a degree of belief for the event time occurring within a time interval, without any strict distribution assumption. Meanwhile, the proposed model quantifies both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties using Gaussian Random Fuzzy Numbers and belief functions, providing clinicians with uncertainty-aware survival time predictions. Experimental evaluations using simulated and real-world survival datasets highlight the potential of our approach for enhancing clinical decision-making in survival analysis.
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引用次数: 0
Multi-view outlier detection based on multi-granularity fusion of fuzzy rough granules
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109402
Siyi Qiu , Yuefei Wang , Zixu Wang , Jinyan Cao , Xi Yu
In recent years, multi-view data has seen widespread application across various fields, presenting both opportunities and challenges due to its complex distribution across different views. Detecting outliers in such heterogeneous data has become a significant research problem. Existing multi-view outlier detection methods often rely on clustering assumptions, pairwise constraints between views, and a focus on learning consensus information, which overlook the inherent differences across views. To address the aforementioned issues, this paper proposes an outlier detection method based on the fusion of multi-granularity fuzzy rough information (MGFMOD). The method calculates a multi-granularity similarity matrix using fuzzy similarity relationships, combines similarity matrices from different granularities to form an upper approximation matrix, and constructs fused upper approximation granules to detect attribute anomalies. Neighbor domain probabilistic mapping is then employed to unify neighborhood relationships across views, allowing the analysis of both consistency and distribution differences to capture class outliers. Additionally, this paper employs a novel coarse-to-fine approximation method to construct the upper approximation matrix, further improving the accuracy of attribute outlier detection. Experimental results on multiple public datasets demonstrate that the proposed method generally outperforms existing multi-view outlier detection methods in terms of detection accuracy and robustness.
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引用次数: 0
Multiindistinguishability operators 多区分性算子
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109401
D. Boixader, J. Recasens
In this paper (binary) equivalence relations and their fuzzification, indistinguishability operators, are generalized to n-equivalence relations and n-multiindistinguishability operators respectively. Some of the properties of these two last objects are stated as well as their relation with binary ones.
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引用次数: 0
DEEM: A novel approach to semi-supervised and unsupervised image clustering under uncertainty using belief functions and convolutional neural networks
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109400
Loïc Guiziou , Emmanuel Ramasso , Sébastien Thibaud , Sébastien Denneulin
DEEM (Deep Evidential Encoding of iMages) is a clustering algorithm that combines belief functions with convolutional neural networks in a Siamese-like framework for unsupervised and semi-supervised image clustering. In DEEM, images are mapped to Dempster–Shafer mass functions to quantify uncertainty in cluster membership. Various forms of prior information, including must-link and cannot-link constraints, supervised dissimilarities, and Distance Metric Learning, are incorporated to guide training and improve generalisation. By processing image pairs through shared network weights, DEEM aligns pairwise dissimilarities with the conflict between mass functions, thereby mitigating errors in noisy or incomplete distance matrices. Experiments on MNIST demonstrate that DEEM generalises effectively to unseen data while managing different types of prior knowledge, making it a promising approach for clustering and semi-supervised learning from image data under uncertainty.
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引用次数: 0
Soft computing for the posterior of a matrix t graphical network
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109397
Jason Pillay , Andriette Bekker , Johannes Ferreira , Mohammad Arashi
Modeling noisy data in a network context remains an unavoidable obstacle; fortunately, random matrix theory may comprehensively describe network environments. Noisy data necessitates the probabilistic characterization of these networks using matrix variate models. Denoising network data using a Bayesian approach is not common in surveyed literature. Therefore, this paper adopts the Bayesian viewpoint and introduces a new version of the matrix variate t graphical network. This model's prior beliefs rely on the matrix variate gamma distribution to handle the noise process flexibly; from a statistical learning viewpoint, such a theoretical consideration benefits the comprehension of structures and processes that cause network-based noise in data as part of machine learning and offers real-world interpretation. A proposed Gibbs algorithm is provided for computing and approximating the resulting posterior probability distribution of interest to assess the considered model's network centrality measures. Experiments with synthetic and real-world stock price data are performed to validate the proposed algorithm's capabilities and show that this model has wider flexibility than the model proposed by [13].
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引用次数: 0
Fuzzy time series analysis: Expanding the scope with fuzzy numbers
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109387
Hugo J. Bello , Manuel Ojeda-Hernández , Domingo López-Rodríguez , Carlos Bejines
This article delves into the process of fuzzifying time series, which entails converting a conventional time series into a time-indexed sequence of fuzzy numbers. The focus lies on the well-established practice of fuzzifying time series when a predefined degree of uncertainty is known, employing fuzzy numbers to quantify volatility or vagueness. To address practical challenges associated with volatility or vagueness quantification, we introduce the concept of informed time series. An algorithm is proposed to derive fuzzy time series, and findings include the examination of structural breaks within the realm of fuzzy time series. Additionally, this article underscores the significance of employing topological tools in the analysis of fuzzy time series, accentuating the role of these tools in extracting insights and unraveling intricate relationships within the data.
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic efficiency of inferential models and a possibilistic Bernstein–von Mises theorem
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109389
Ryan Martin, Jonathan P. Williams
The inferential model (IM) framework offers an alternative to the classical probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. A key distinction is that classical uncertainty quantification takes the form of precise probabilities and offers only limited large-sample validity guarantees, whereas the IM's uncertainty quantification is imprecise in such a way that exact, finite-sample valid inference is possible. But are the IM's imprecision and finite-sample validity compatible with statistical efficiency? That is, can IMs be both finite-sample valid and asymptotically efficient? This paper gives an affirmative answer to this question via a new possibilistic Bernstein–von Mises theorem that parallels a fundamental Bayesian result. Among other things, our result shows that the IM solution is efficient in the sense that, asymptotically, its credal set is the smallest that contains the Gaussian distribution with variance equal to the Cramér–Rao lower bound. Moreover, a corresponding version of this new Bernstein–von Mises theorem is presented for problems that involve the elimination of nuisance parameters, which settles an open question concerning the relative efficiency of profiling-based versus extension-based marginalization strategies.
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引用次数: 0
Maximal hypercliques search based on concept-cognitive learning
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109386
Jiawei Wang , Fei Hao , Jie Gao , Li Zou , Zheng Pei
Maximal hyperclique search, focused on finding the largest hypernode subsets in a hypergraph such that every combination of r nodes in these subsets forms a hyperedge, is a fundamental problem in hypergraph mining. However, compared to traditional graphs, the combinatorial explosion of hyperedges significantly increases the complexity of enumeration, especially as the r-value and the number of hypernodes grow, rapidly expanding the search space. Moreover, overlapping hyperedges in dense hypergraphs lead to substantial redundant checks, further exacerbating search inefficiency, making traditional methods inadequate for large-scale hypergraphs. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes a novel approach MHSC that handles the maximal hyperclique search task in r-uniform hypergraph based on concept-cognitive learning. Concept-cognitive learning refers to the process of understanding and structuring knowledge through the formation of concepts and their interrelationships. Technically, the hypernode-neighbor structure of the hypergraph is first expressed as a formal context, and the required concepts are generated using the concept lattice algorithm. Based on the shared relationships between hypernodes represented by the hyperedges, a series of theorems are proposed to prune hypernodes that cannot form maximal hypercliques within the sets of 1-intent and 2-intent concepts, thereby narrowing the search space and reducing redundant computations. Furthermore, an optimization method termed MHSC+ is introduced. Extensive experiments conducted on both test datasets and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and applicability of the proposed algorithm.
最大超边搜索主要是寻找超图中最大的超节点子集,使得这些子集中的每一个r节点组合都能形成一个超边,这是超图挖掘中的一个基本问题。然而,与传统图相比,超网格的组合爆炸大大增加了枚举的复杂性,特别是当 r 值和超节点数量增加时,搜索空间迅速扩大。此外,密集超图中重叠的超节点会导致大量冗余检查,进一步加剧搜索效率低下的问题,使得传统方法无法满足大规模超图的需求。为了应对这些挑战,本文提出了一种基于概念认知学习的新方法 MHSC,用于处理 r-uniform 超图中的最大超角搜索任务。概念认知学习是指通过形成概念及其相互关系来理解和构建知识的过程。在技术上,首先将超图的超节点-邻接结构表达为形式化的上下文,然后利用概念网格算法生成所需的概念。根据超图所代表的超节点之间的共享关系,提出了一系列定理,以剪除不能在 1-entent 和 2-entent 概念集合内形成最大超环的超节点,从而缩小搜索空间,减少冗余计算。此外,还引入了一种称为 MHSC+ 的优化方法。在测试数据集和实际数据集上进行的大量实验证明了所提算法的有效性、高效性和适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing inference to the best explanation posteriors for the estimation of economic agent-based models
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109388
Francesco De Pretis , Aldo Glielmo , Jürgen Landes
Explanatory relationships between data and hypotheses have been suggested to play a role in the formation of posterior probabilities. This suggestion was tested in a toy environment and supported by simulations by David H. Glass. We here put forward a variety of inference to the best explanation approaches for determining posterior probabilities by intertwining Bayesian and inference to the best explanation approaches. We then simulate their performances for the estimation of parameters in the Brock and Hommes agent-based model for asset pricing in finance. We find that performances depend on circumstances and also on the evaluation metric. However, most of the time our suggested approaches outperform the Bayesian approach.
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引用次数: 0
A dialectical formalisation of preferred subtheories reasoning under resource bounds
IF 3.2 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2025.109385
Kees van Berkel , Marcello D'Agostino , Sanjay Modgil
Dialectical Classical Argumentation (Dialectical Cl-Arg) has been shown to satisfy rationality postulates under resource bounds. In particular, the consistency and non-contamination postulates are satisfied despite dropping the assumption of logical omniscience and the consistency and subset minimality checks on arguments' premises that are deployed by standard approaches to Cl-Arg. This paper studies Dialectical Cl-Arg's formalisation of Preferred Subtheories (PS) non-monotonic reasoning under resource bounds. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we establish soundness and completeness for Dialectical Cl-Arg's credulous consequence relation under the preferred semantics and credulous PS consequences. This result paves the way for the use of argument game proof theories and dialogues that establish membership of arguments in admissible (and so preferred) extensions, and hence the credulous PS consequences of a belief base. Second, we refine the non-standard characteristic function for Dialectical Cl-Arg, and use this refined function to show soundness for Dialectical Cl-Arg consequences under the grounded semantics and resource-bounded sceptical PS consequence. We provide a counterexample that shows that completeness does not hold. However, we also show that the grounded consequences defined by Dialectical Cl-Arg strictly subsume the grounded consequences defined by standard Cl-Arg formalisations of PS, so that we recover sceptical PS consequences that one would intuitively expect to hold.
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International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
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