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Using Statistics for Market Analysis Forecasting 运用统计学进行市场分析和预测
Pub Date : 2023-04-20 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n5p12
Thanakit Ouanhlee
Market analysis is a crucial aspect for any organization, business, or company because it provides a ground for decision making. Poor market analysis leads to poor decisions. On the other hand, using quality data to conduct market analysis can provide significant grounds for informed decisions. Business sectors require a clear view of future trends regarding the performance of their products, sales, stocks, employees, and customers, among others. However, defining patterns is possible only through statistical techniques of forecasting. In essence, the knowledge of market analysis forecasting using statistical tools is imperative. This article aims at providing a summary of market forecasting techniques, highlighting their interesting discoveries, and outlining some practical applications in real life. The summary covers regression analysis, handling of special events, identification of seasonality, Holt–Winters method, and forecasting for new products. Regarding regression analysis, it was found that data cleaning is an important aspect of this analysis before the actual forecasting. The data must be tested to meet the reliability and validity criteria to ensure quality data are used for forecasting. The interesting discovery with regard to handling special events was that some special events have great ripple effects, which an organization needs to plan for. Furthermore, when doing an analysis of data, it is essential to take into account the effects of seasonality. It was also ascertained that the accuracy of the Holt–Winters method is associated with its use of smoother curve, which allows a researcher to smooth time series data to make predictions. The article further illustrates that the Bass diffusion model provides more accurate forecasts than logistics and Gompertz models givens its ability to put into consideration the external and internal influence when forecasting sales of new products. One of the applications of this study is that regression models can be used in studying the effectiveness of advertisement platforms during a product marketing campaign. Sales companies can apply seasonality forecasting to understand the influence of different seasons on their products. Moreover, the data on customers’ expenditure patterns can be used to forecast special events to aid in proper planning. Therefore, any business, firm, industry, or country can use forecasting to predict different components of a market.
市场分析对任何组织、企业或公司来说都是至关重要的方面,因为它为决策提供了依据。糟糕的市场分析导致糟糕的决策。另一方面,使用高质量的数据进行市场分析可以为明智的决策提供重要的依据。业务部门需要对产品、销售、库存、员工和客户等方面的未来趋势有一个清晰的认识。然而,只有通过预测的统计技术才能确定模式。从本质上讲,使用统计工具进行市场分析预测的知识是必不可少的。本文旨在总结市场预测技术,突出其有趣的发现,并概述在现实生活中的一些实际应用。摘要包括回归分析、特殊事件的处理、季节性的识别、霍尔特-温特斯方法和新产品的预测。关于回归分析,我们发现在实际预测之前,数据清洗是这个分析的一个重要方面。必须对数据进行测试,以满足信度和效度标准,以确保高质量的数据用于预测。关于处理特殊事件的有趣发现是,一些特殊事件具有很大的连锁反应,组织需要对此进行规划。此外,在进行数据分析时,必须考虑到季节性的影响。还确定了Holt-Winters方法的准确性与其使用更平滑的曲线有关,这使得研究人员可以平滑时间序列数据以进行预测。本文进一步说明,Bass扩散模型在预测新产品销售时能够考虑到外部和内部影响,因此比物流模型和Gompertz模型提供了更准确的预测。本研究的应用之一是回归模型可以用于研究产品营销活动中广告平台的有效性。销售公司可以运用季节性预测来了解不同季节对其产品的影响。此外,客户支出模式的数据可以用来预测特殊事件,以帮助适当的计划。因此,任何企业、公司、行业或国家都可以使用预测来预测市场的不同组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Contribution of Circular Economy on Achieving Sustainable Development 循环经济对实现可持续发展的贡献
Pub Date : 2023-04-19 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n5p1
Haga Elimam
Being the world’s largest oil states and highest per capita income recorded, Qatar and Kuwait are the two most developing countries in the world but the situation of the Circular Economy and its implementation is not taken into consideration. The study aims to estimate the impact of the contribution of the circular economy (CE) on sustainability development. In this research, A self-generated questionnaire was sent to 300 companies situated in Qatar and Kuwait. This is a closed-ended survey. A Random Sampling technique is used to collect the data. The findings indicate that awareness on the subject of circular economy policies is not sufficient while the policies and laws to maintain sustainability are present. The communities are sufficiently using some of the strategies to implement CE for maintaining sustainability but recycling is not done properly. The study implies that the betterment of law-and-order situations in the community is required and awareness campaigns and tactics should be focused on.
作为世界上最大的石油国家和人均收入最高的国家,卡塔尔和科威特是世界上最发展的两个国家,但循环经济的情况及其实施并没有得到考虑。本研究旨在评估循环经济对可持续发展的贡献。在本研究中,我们向位于卡塔尔和科威特的300家公司发送了一份自编问卷。这是一项封闭式调查。采用随机抽样技术收集数据。研究结果表明,我国对循环经济政策的认识还不够充分,而维持可持续性的政策和法律却存在。社区正充分运用一些策略来推行环保措施,以维持可持续发展,但回收工作却做得不够。这项研究表明,需要改善社区的法律和秩序状况,并应侧重于提高认识的运动和策略。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Financial Inclusion Using Fintech: Development Scenario for the Bank Card 利用金融科技增强普惠金融:银行卡的发展情景
Pub Date : 2023-04-19 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n5p38
Salma Rhanoui
Financial technology, or Fintech, refers to the allocation of financial services to customers and businesses through digital technology. This tool can improve financial inclusion by granting affordable access to various financial products and services. Fintech can also be used to fight financial exclusion in order to support economic development. In this respect, the present paper investigates a forecast scenario for the evolution of the bank card as a Fintech instrument to identify the Fintech industry’s potential contributions to greater financial inclusion. In particular, we used the Mayer method of linear adjustment to generate a plausible evolution scenario of bank cards in circulation for six years, together with commentary and analysis, in order to determine how Fintech could promote financial inclusion through bank cards. The findings showed that Fintech is on the right track to promote financial inclusion, even though it also faces several challenges that must be overcome.
金融科技,简称Fintech,是指通过数字技术为客户和企业配置金融服务。这一工具可以通过提供负担得起的各种金融产品和服务来改善普惠金融。金融科技也可以用来打击金融排斥,以支持经济发展。在这方面,本文研究了银行卡作为金融科技工具演变的预测情景,以确定金融科技行业对更大的金融包容性的潜在贡献。特别地,我们使用Mayer线性调整方法生成了银行卡流通六年的合理演变情景,并结合评论和分析,以确定金融科技如何通过银行卡促进金融普惠。调查结果表明,金融科技在促进普惠金融方面走在正确的道路上,尽管它也面临着一些必须克服的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Strengthening SMEs’ Innovation Through HRM and Organizational Learning 通过人力资源管理和组织学习加强中小企业创新
Pub Date : 2023-04-19 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n5p29
Wuryanti Wuryanti, H. Sulistyo
This study is to investigate the role of HRM, OL, KM capability in increasing innovation of SMEs in Central Java, Indonesia. This study used 128 SMEs in the fashion creative industry in Jepara, Indonesia, and Semarang, Indonesia. Besides, it used a questionnaire distributed to the owners of SMEs. For data analysis, this study used descriptive statistics and SEM with PLS program. This study found that HRM do not affect KM but affects innovation. Organizational Learning (OL) is also able to strengthen KM and innovation. KM capability also significantly affects innovation. The capability of SMEs to adapt and explore knowledge, innovate, think creatively, which is strong and conducts exploration and exploitation of OL is very important in responding to changes in the very competitive environment. The challenges of SMEs in the industrial revolution 4.0 include economic globalization and the digital economy. SMEs need to be more intensive in increasing their intellectual capital (IC), knowledge management (KM), and dynamic abilities to improve performance.
本研究旨在探讨人力资源管理、知识管理、知识管理能力在提高印尼中爪哇中小企业创新能力中的作用。本研究以印尼Jepara、三宝垄的128家时尚创意产业中小企业为研究对象。此外,它还使用了向中小企业所有者分发的问卷。对于数据分析,本研究采用描述性统计和扫描电镜与PLS程序。本研究发现,人力资源管理并不影响知识管理,而是影响创新。组织学习(OL)也能加强知识管理和创新。知识管理能力对创新也有显著影响。中小企业适应和探索知识、创新和创造性思维的能力较强,并能对资源进行探索和开发,这对于应对竞争激烈的环境变化非常重要。在工业革命4.0中,中小企业面临的挑战包括经济全球化和数字经济。中小企业需要更加集约化地提高其智力资本(IC)、知识管理(KM)和动态能力,以提高绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Reviewer Acknowledgements for International Business Research, Vol. 16, No. 4 《国际商业研究》第16卷第4期审稿人致谢
Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n4p64
Kevin Duran
Reviewer Acknowledgements for International Business Research, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2023
《国际商业研究》,Vol. 16, No. 4, 2023
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Impact of Business Model Innovation on Firm Performance: Insights from the China Growth Enterprise Market 商业模式创新对企业绩效的影响评估:来自中国创业板市场的洞察
Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n4p51
Feng Yu, Guizhou Wang
This article explores the impact of business model innovation (BMI) on firm performance by analyzing 2,970 annual reports of firms in the China Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) from 2012 to 2017. The dependent variable bmi is constructed using crawler technology to reflect the business model innovation of the research sample. Four financial indicators, i.e. gross profit ratio total assets (GPA), earnings per share (EPS), return on total assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE), are used to represent firm performance. The results suggest that BMI has a positive impact on a firm's performance in China, and the robustness test confirms the findings. This study provides empirical evidence of the impacts of BMI on firm performance in the China GEM and offers managerial implications for governments, firms, and entrepreneurs.
本文通过分析2012 - 2017年中国创业板2970份企业年报,探讨商业模式创新(BMI)对企业绩效的影响。利用爬虫技术构建因变量bmi来反映研究样本的商业模式创新。四个财务指标,即毛利率总资产(GPA),每股收益(EPS),总资产收益率(ROA),净资产收益率(ROE),用来表示企业绩效。研究结果表明,BMI对中国企业绩效有正向影响,稳健性检验证实了这一发现。本研究提供了BMI对创业板企业绩效影响的实证证据,并为政府、企业和企业家提供了管理启示。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparison of Information Criterion for Choosing Copula Models 选择Copula模型的信息准则比较
Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n4p1
S. Muela, Carmen López-Martín
The object of this paper is to analyse the ability of the Information Criterion in selecting the best copula model. For this study, we carry out a simulation exercise considering five one-parameter copula families: Normal, Student-t with ν degree freedom, Clayton, Gumbel and Frank. For each family copulas, three degrees of dependence and three size samples. The Information Criterion included in the comparison are AIC, BIC, HQIC, SIC. The results obtained are as follow; (i) we find that for a high dependence level (0.9) the reliability of the Information Criterion (IC) is quite good, but it reduces with the dependence level; (ii) the performance of the IC not only depends on the dependence degree but the size sample. In the case of considering negative dependence the reliability of the IC does not depend on the dependence degree but the size sample. As the size sample reduce the performed of the IC reduce. To last, in a comparison among the IC considered, we find that the BIC criterion is the most reliable follow by SIC. AIC and HQIC reaps similar results.
本文的目的是分析信息准则选择最佳联结模型的能力。在本研究中,我们进行了五个单参数copula族的模拟练习:Normal, Student-t with ν自由度,Clayton, Gumbel和Frank。对于每个家庭,三个依赖程度和三个大小的样本。比较的信息标准包括AIC、BIC、HQIC、SIC。所得结果如下:(1)我们发现,在高依赖水平(0.9)下,信息准则(IC)的信度相当好,但随着依赖水平的增加而降低;(ii)集成电路的性能不仅取决于依赖程度,而且取决于样本的大小。在考虑负依赖的情况下,集成电路的可靠性不取决于依赖程度,而取决于样本的大小。随着样品尺寸的减小,集成电路的性能也随之减小。最后,在考虑的IC之间的比较中,我们发现BIC标准是最可靠的,其次是SIC标准。AIC和HQIC获得了类似的结果。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Spousal Support in Working Mothers’ Work-Life Balance 配偶支持在职业母亲工作与生活平衡中的作用
Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n4p39
A. Alarifi, Abdulrahman S. Basahal
This paper studied how Saudi working mothers experience spousal support, and what types of support are most relevant for them. Drawing on a qualitative research design with 17 semi-structured in-depth interviews with Saudi working mothers, and a thematic analysis approach, this study explored and discussed in-depth six types of spousal support and how working mothers experience each. We find that the most relevant and welcomed type of support is professional support, especially as it relates to current and future career aspirations, followed by more practical support in the household and with childcare/parenting responsibilities. Intellectual and emotional support are appreciated, but not a must, as most women feel they should be able to deal with their own emotions without their husband’s involvement. Financial support is becoming less relevant and the least-needed type of spousal support. Overall, we find that most working mothers struggle to find a balance between their work and non-work-related life, and male partners have an essential role in helping their wives find that balance.
本文研究了沙特阿拉伯职业母亲如何获得配偶支持,以及哪种类型的支持对她们最相关。本研究采用定性研究设计,对17位沙特职业母亲进行了半结构化的深度访谈,并采用主题分析方法,深入探讨了六种类型的配偶支持以及职业母亲如何体验每种支持。我们发现,最相关和最受欢迎的支持类型是专业支持,尤其是与当前和未来的职业抱负有关的支持,其次是家庭中更实际的支持,以及照顾孩子/养育孩子的责任。智力和情感上的支持是值得赞赏的,但不是必须的,因为大多数女性认为她们应该能够在没有丈夫参与的情况下处理自己的情绪。经济支持正变得不那么重要,而且是最不需要的配偶支持。总的来说,我们发现大多数职业母亲都在努力寻找工作和非工作生活之间的平衡,而男性伴侣在帮助妻子找到平衡方面发挥着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 1
The Relationship between Green Human Resource Management Practices and Organizational Citizenship Behavior 绿色人力资源管理实践与组织公民行为的关系
Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n4p15
Bassant Adel Mostafa, Reham Saber Saleh
In an era of green environmental awareness, Green Human Resources Management (GHRM) uses human resources management practices to support green environmental functions. It embraces green environmental concerns by applying human resources initiatives to generate high performance and better efficiency in operations. Although the literature on GHRM is growing, a few studies investigated to what extent green innovative culture (GIC) moderates the relationship between green human resources management practices and organizational citizenship behavior towards the environment (OCBE). To address this research gap, the authors tested a new conceptual framework investigating the direct and interactive effects of GHRM practices and GIC on OCBE. A quantitative study uses a survey from a 174 convenient sample of employees selected from a manufacturing firm operating in Egypt. The research results revealed that (1) GHRM practices are crucial for encouraging employees to engage in green activities, in addition (2) there is a significant positive effect of GHRM practices on OCBE, while on the other hand, (3) the interaction of GHRM and GIC can foster employees’ engagement in OCBE. The research significance lies in identifying and validating the GHRM practices applied in the manufacturing firm, as it advances the previous studies by developing a research model that offers critical insights on how manufacturing organizations working in industrial and agricultural packaging solutions could strategically link their GHRM practices and green innovative culture to support their OCBE in creating a competitive advantage in the market.
在绿色环保意识的时代,绿色人力资源管理(GHRM)利用人力资源管理实践来支持绿色环境职能。它通过运用人力资源措施来提高业务表现和效率,从而关注绿色环境问题。虽然关于GHRM的文献越来越多,但很少有研究调查绿色创新文化(GIC)在多大程度上调节绿色人力资源管理实践与组织公民环境行为(OCBE)之间的关系。为了解决这一研究空白,作者测试了一个新的概念框架,调查GHRM实践和GIC对OCBE的直接和互动影响。一项定量研究使用了一项调查,从174名方便的员工样本中选择了一家在埃及经营的制造公司。研究结果表明:(1)GHRM实践对鼓励员工参与绿色活动至关重要,(2)GHRM实践对员工的外部性有显著的正向影响,另一方面(3)GHRM与GIC的交互作用可以促进员工的外部性。研究的意义在于识别和验证GHRM实践在制造企业中的应用,因为它通过开发一个研究模型来推进先前的研究,该模型提供了关于从事工业和农业包装解决方案的制造组织如何将其GHRM实践和绿色创新文化战略性地联系起来,以支持其OCBE在市场中创造竞争优势的关键见解。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Influence of Enterprise’s Digital Transformation on Carbon Emission Intensity——A Moderated Mediation Model 企业数字化转型对碳排放强度的影响研究——一个有调节的中介模型
Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v16n4p27
Na Liu, Xiaoming Ding, Jianqi Mao, Yan-hui Wei
Digitalization and low-carbon development are parallel in the digital economy. In what ways does the development of low-carbon economy can be contributed by the digital transformation of enterprises? This paper analyzes the impact of digital transformation on carbon emissions from a micro perspective. Based on unbalanced panel data from 278 listed companies between 2010 and 2018, a double fixed-effect model is used to test the overall effects of digitalization on carbon emission intensity, the intermediary role of green technology innovation capacity and the regulatory effect of absorptive capacity. Results show that digital transformation of enterprises contributes to the reduction of carbon emission intensity, green technology innovation capability partially mediates the impact of digital transformation on carbon emission intensity, and absorptive capacity moderates the impact of digital transformation on green technology innovation capacity. Based above, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures from the aspects of digitalization, greening and low carbon.
数字化与低碳发展在数字经济中是并行的。企业数字化转型对低碳经济的发展有哪些贡献?本文从微观角度分析了数字化转型对碳排放的影响。基于2010 - 2018年278家上市公司的非平衡面板数据,采用双固定效应模型检验数字化对碳排放强度的整体影响、绿色技术创新能力的中介作用和吸收能力的调节作用。结果表明:企业数字化转型有助于降低碳排放强度,绿色技术创新能力部分中介数字化转型对碳排放强度的影响,吸收能力调节数字化转型对绿色技术创新能力的影响。在此基础上,本文从数字化、绿色化、低碳化等方面提出了相应的对策。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
International journal of business research
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