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Herbage nutritive value of binary- and multi-species swards relative to single-species swards in intensive silage systems 集约化青贮系统中二种和多种草相对于单种草的牧草营养价值
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-12-19 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0109
T. Moloney, H. Sheridan, James Grant, E. O'Riordan, P. O'kiely
The nutritive value of sown binary- and multi-species grassland mixtures may differ from the values expected based on single-species swards of their constituent species. Field plots were established in a split-plot design to assess the nutritive value of binary- and multi-species mixtures compared to single-species swards of three grass species and red clover (RC) (Trifolium pratense L.) managed for intensive silage production. The nutritive value of grass–legume binary mixtures reflected the values of the constituent species grown on their own, and thus may be predicted from monoculture values. The relatively low digestibility (dry matter digestibility [DMD]) and crude protein (CP) content of the Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) sward compared to perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) suggests that it may have a limited role in binary- or multi-species swards. Herbage nutritive value in the multi-species swards (Mix 1: perennial ryegrass, timothy, RC and white clover [Trifolium repens L.]; Mix 2: perennial ryegrass, timothy, RC, ribwort plantain [Plantago lanceolata L.] and chicory [Cichorium intybus L.]) appeared to be influenced more by the presence of legumes than herbs. Compared to perennial ryegrass, the multi-species swards had a slower rate of DMD decline prior to Cut 1, but subsequently had lower DMD values at the mid-season harvests. Both multi-species mixtures exhibited DMD, water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) and CP values that would not have been predicted from their constituent species and thus need to be measured on herbage from field plots growing these mixtures.
播种的二种和多种混合草地的营养价值可能不同于基于其组成物种的单种草地的预期价值。采用分割样地设计建立田间样地,比较三种草和红三叶草(Trifolium pratense L.)在集约化青贮生产中的单种混合和二元和多种混合的营养价值。草-豆科植物二元混合物的营养价值反映了组成物种单独生长的价值,因此可以从单一栽培的价值来预测。与多年生黑麦草(Lolium perenne L.)和蒂莫西草(Phleum pratense L.)相比,意大利黑麦草(Lolium multiflorum L.)的消化率(干物质消化率[DMD])和粗蛋白质(CP)含量相对较低,表明其在双种或多种禾草中的作用有限。多种禾草(混合1:多年生黑麦草、timothy、RC和白三叶[Trifolium repens L.])牧草营养价值混合2:多年生黑麦草、提摩西草、棘草、车前草(Plantago lanceolata L.)和菊苣(Cichorium intybus L.)受豆科植物的影响大于草本植物。与多年生黑麦草相比,多种草在刈割前的DMD下降速度较慢,但在季中收获时DMD值较低。两种多物种混合物的DMD、水溶性碳水化合物(WSC)和CP值都无法从其组成物种中预测出来,因此需要在种植这些混合物的田间地块上进行测量。
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引用次数: 5
The proximate composition of three marine pelagic fish: blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), boarfish (Capros aper) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) 三种海洋中上层鱼类的近似组成:蓝鳕鱼(Micromeristius poutassou)、野猪鱼(Capros aper)和大西洋鲱鱼(Clupea harengus)
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-12-18 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0112
S. Egerton, D. Mannion, S. Culloty, J. Whooley, C. Stanton, R. Ross
This study presents data from an in-depth proximate compositional analysis of three marine fish species: blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), boarfish (Capros aper) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). These fish contained significant amounts of protein (16–17%), lipids (4–11%) and minerals (2–6% ash). The proteins, particularly from boarfish, had close to optimum amino acid profiles for human and fish nutrition. They compared favourably with other fish species in terms of total lipids and relative concentration of the omega-3 fatty acids docosahexaenoic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid (11.8–13.3% and 5.9–8.1% in triacylglycerols [TG] and 24.6–35.4% and 5.8–12.0% in phospholipids [PL]). Atlantic herring had the highest lipid content among the three fish and was found to contain high levels of PL poly-unsaturated fatty acids, including omega-3 fatty acids. Minerals detected in the fish included calcium (272–1,520 mg/100 g), phosphorus (363–789 mg/100 g), iron (1.07–2.83 mg/100 g), magnesium (40.70–62.10 mg/100 g), potassium (112.00–267.00 mg/100 g), selenium (0.04–0.06 mg/100 g), sodium (218.00–282.00 mg/100 g) and zinc (1.29–5.57 mg/100 g). Boarfish had the highest ash fraction and also the highest levels of all the minerals, except potassium. Atlantic herring had considerably lower mineral content compared with the other two species and, levels detected were also lower than those reported in previously published studies. Heavy metals contents were quantified, and levels were significantly below the maximum allowable limits for all elements except arsenic, which ranged from 1.34 to 2.44 mg/kg in the three fish species. Data outlined here will be useful for guiding product development. Future studies would benefit from considering catch season, sex and developmental stage of the fish.
这项研究提供了对三种海洋鱼类的深入接近成分分析的数据:蓝鳕鱼(Micromeristius poutassou)、野猪鱼(Capros aper)和大西洋鲱鱼(Clupea harengus)。这些鱼含有大量的蛋白质(16-17%)、脂质(4-11%)和矿物质(2-6%灰分)。这些蛋白质,特别是来自野猪的蛋白质,具有接近人类和鱼类营养的最佳氨基酸图谱。就总脂质和ω-3脂肪酸二十二碳六烯酸和二十碳五烯酸的相对浓度而言,它们与其他鱼类相比是有利的(三酰基甘油[TG]中分别为11.8-13.3%和5.9-8.1%,磷脂[PL]中分别是24.6-35.4%和5.8-12.0%)。大西洋鲱鱼的脂质含量在三种鱼类中最高,并被发现含有高水平的PL多不饱和脂肪酸,包括ω-3脂肪酸。在该鱼中检测到的矿物质包括钙(272–1520 mg/100 g)、磷(363–789 mg/100 g。除钾外,河豚的灰分含量最高,所有矿物质含量也最高。与其他两种鲱鱼相比,大西洋鲱鱼的矿物质含量要低得多,而且检测到的含量也低于之前发表的研究报告中的水平。对重金属含量进行了量化,重金属含量明显低于除砷以外的所有元素的最高允许限量,这三种鱼类的砷含量在1.34至2.44毫克/公斤之间。此处列出的数据将有助于指导产品开发。未来的研究将受益于考虑鱼类的捕捞季节、性别和发育阶段。
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引用次数: 5
Adding value to under-utilised Irish fish roe: a physico-chemical and sensory comparison of cured Irish pollock (Pollachius pollachius) roe with commercial mullet (Mugil cephalus) and cod (Gadus morhua) products 增加未充分利用的爱尔兰鱼籽的价值:腌制爱尔兰鳕鱼(Pollachius Pollachius)与商业鲻鱼(Mugil cephalus)和鳕鱼(Gadus morhua)产品的理化和感官比较
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0114
A. Furey, U. Hoeche, F. Noci
Irish marine fish roe is generally discarded at sea or processed as low value-added fishmeal and not utilised as nutritious seafood ingredients. Locally sourced pollock roes were salted, air-dried (Mediterranean-style) and compared to similar commercial mullet and cod products for: weight; moisture content; pH; instrumental texture and colour; and sensory attributes. Raw pollock roes averaged 105 g (n = 25). Roes lost on average 3.1% moisture (w/w) after a 2-h salting period and 48.8% weight reduction was observed after an average 105 h air-drying time. The moisture content of pollock was not significantly different to commercial products. Average pH for pollock, mullet and cod products was 5.9, 5.4 and 5.7, respectively (P < 0.05). Pollock and mullet had similar hardness, but cod was significantly harder than both, when measured instrumentally. Total colour difference (∆E*) between the surface of pollock and cod, and that of pollock and mullet was 7.5 and 3.0, respectively. Sensory assessment of sliced and powdered products, using 9-point hedonic and 5-point just-about-right (JAR) scales, was conducted with 38 consumers. Pollock received the highest scores for overall liking and intention to purchase compared to commercial mullet and cod products, averaging 5.6, 5.6 and 4.9, respectively, for sliced roe products, and 6.3, 5.3 and 6.1 for powdered products. Penalty analysis of JAR showed “overall liking” was impacted by the flavour being “too fishy”. In conclusion, pollock had similar characteristics and acceptable sensory attributes compared to commercial products presenting opportunities to expand the range of value-added roe products (e.g., trout, salmon) available, while also contributing to waste reduction.
爱尔兰海鱼籽通常被丢弃在海上或加工成低附加值的鱼粉,而不是用作营养丰富的海鲜原料。当地采购的鳕鱼经过腌制,风干(地中海风格),并与类似的商业鲻鱼和鳕鱼产品进行比较:重量;水分含量;pH值;器乐质地和颜色;感官属性。生鳕鱼平均105克(n = 25)。腌制2 h后,黄豆平均损失3.1%的水分(w/w),风干105 h后,黄豆重量减少48.8%。鳕鱼的水分含量与商品无显著差异。鳕鱼、鲻鱼和鳕鱼产品的平均pH分别为5.9、5.4和5.7 (P < 0.05)。鳕鱼和鲻鱼的硬度相似,但用仪器测量时,鳕鱼比两者都要硬得多。鳕鱼和鳕鱼表面总色差(∆E*)分别为7.5和3.0。对切片和粉状产品进行感官评估,使用9分享乐和5分刚刚好(JAR)量表,对38名消费者进行了评估。与商业鲻鱼和鳕鱼产品相比,波洛克鱼在整体喜欢度和购买意愿方面得分最高,切片鱼子产品的平均得分分别为5.6、5.6和4.9,粉状产品的平均得分为6.3、5.3和6.1。对JAR的惩罚分析显示,“总体喜欢度”受到味道“太腥”的影响。总之,与商业产品相比,狭鳕具有相似的特性和可接受的感官属性,为扩大可获得的增值鱼卵产品(如鳟鱼、鲑鱼)的范围提供了机会,同时也有助于减少浪费。
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引用次数: 1
Behavioural and physiological responses of individually housed dairy calves to change in milk feeding frequency at different ages 不同日龄单独饲养犊牛对喂奶频率变化的行为和生理反应
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0102
G. Scoley, A Ashfield, M. Romero Oiartzun, A. Gordon, S.J. Morrison
This study aimed to use a range of non-invasive monitoring technologies to investigate the behavioural and physiological responses of individually housed dairy calves to age at change in milk replacer (MR) feeding frequency. Forty-eight Holstein Friesian calves were individually penned and fed MR (625 g/d) as solids in one of three feeding regimes: (i) once-a-day feeding commencing at age 14 d (OAD14), (ii) once-a-day feeding commencing at age 28 d (OAD28) and (iii) twice-a-day feeding (TAD). Several behavioural (automatic activity sensors), physiological (infrared [IR] thermography and heart rate variability [HRV]) and haematological indicators were used to examine calf responses. Reduction in milk feeding frequency at 14 or 28 d of age increased daily concentrate intakes and drinking water consumption throughout the pre-wean period. Calf lying behaviour was unaffected by reduction in milk feeding frequency; however, TAD calves recorded a significant decrease in total daily lying time during the post-wean period compared with OAD28s. There was no effect of treatment on IR eye or rectal temperature throughout the experiment; however, there was an effect of age, with IR temperature decreasing as calf age increased. OAD14 calves tended to have decreased HRV at days 14 and 16, which is suggestive of an increased stress load. The findings suggest that under high levels of animal husbandry and whilst maintaining the same amount of milk powder/d (625 g/d), reduction in milk feeding frequency from twice to once daily at 28 d can occur without significant impact to behavioural, performance and physiological parameters assessed here.
本研究旨在使用一系列非侵入性监测技术来调查单独饲养的奶牛犊牛在更换代乳剂(MR)喂养频率时对年龄的行为和生理反应。将48头荷斯坦黑貂犊牛单独圈养,在三种饲喂方案中分别饲喂MR (625 g/d) (i) 14日龄开始每天一次饲喂(OAD14), (ii) 28日龄开始每天一次饲喂(OAD28)和(iii)每天两次饲喂(TAD)。几个行为(自动活动传感器),生理(红外[IR]热成像和心率变异性[HRV])和血液学指标被用来检查小牛的反应。14或28日龄喂奶次数的减少增加了断奶前仔猪的日精料摄入量和饮水消耗量。犊牛说谎行为不受喂奶频率减少的影响;然而,与oad28相比,TAD犊牛在断奶后的总躺卧时间显著减少。在整个实验过程中,治疗对IR眼睛或直肠温度没有影响;随着犊牛年龄的增加,红外温度逐渐降低。OAD14犊牛在第14天和第16天HRV趋于下降,这表明应激负荷增加。研究结果表明,在高水平的畜牧业条件下,在保持相同的奶粉量/d (625 g/d)的情况下,在第28天将喂奶频率从每天两次减少到每天一次,对本研究评估的行为、生产性能和生理参数没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of field headlands on wheat and barley performance in a cool Atlantic climate as assessed in 40 Irish tillage fields 在40块爱尔兰耕地中评估的大西洋凉爽气候下,田岬对小麦和大麦性能的影响
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0113
M. Ward, P. D. Forristal, K. McDonnell
The reduction in cereal crop yields on field headlands has previously been examined in other geographical regions, with research focusing on the relationship between yield and the distance from the crop edge. Headlands are subject to greater machinery trafficking than the centre of the field and the level of traffic imposed depends on the machine size and adopted turning practice. The aim of this work was to examine the impact of turning headlands on crop performance in a survey of 40 field sites in Irish conditions. The headland was categorised into three distinct zones: the area next to the field edge subject to moderate traffic intensities (field edge); the main headland area of greatest turning traffic (turning) and a transition zone (transition). An in-field zone (in-field) in which no machinery turns occur was also included. The 2-year survey included sites from three regions, four soil texture classes and had crops established with plough-based systems. Crop measurements, including plant densities, shoot counts and light interception, and yields were recorded at each site and included winter barley (WB), spring barley (SB) and winter wheat (WW) crops. The yield response of each crop type varied with sample zone, region and soil texture. There were significant (P < 0.001) yield differences recorded between the turning area and in-field zone for all three crops. Winter barley yields were reduced by 1.3 t/ha in the turning zone compared with the in-field section, while SB and WW had yield reductions of 2.08 and 4.04 t/ha, respectively, between these two field zones.
此前,其他地理区域也曾研究过田岬上谷物作物产量的下降,研究重点是产量与作物边缘距离之间的关系。地头比田地中心更容易受到机械贩运的影响,所施加的交通水平取决于机器的大小和采用的转弯方式。这项工作的目的是在爱尔兰条件下对40个田间点进行调查,研究转向岬对作物性能的影响。岬分为三个不同的区域:场地边缘附近的区域,交通强度适中(场地边缘);转弯交通量最大的主要岬区(转弯)和过渡区(过渡)。现场区域(现场)也包括在内,在该区域内不会发生机械转动。这项为期2年的调查包括来自三个地区、四个土壤质地类别的地点,并采用犁式系统种植作物。记录了每个地点的作物测量结果,包括植物密度、芽数和光截获量以及产量,包括冬大麦(WB)、春大麦(SB)和冬小麦(WW)作物。每种作物类型的产量响应随采样区、区域和土壤质地的不同而变化。三种作物在轮作区和田间区之间的产量差异显著(P<0.001)。与田间区相比,轮作区的冬大麦产量减少了1.3吨/公顷,而SB和WW在这两个田间区之间的产量分别减少了2.08和4.04吨/公顷。
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引用次数: 3
Mitigation of phosphorus, sediment and Escherichia coli losses in runoff from a dairy farm roadway 减少从奶牛场道路径流中磷、沉积物和大肠杆菌的损失
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0117
R. McDowell, K. Daly, O. Fenton
Dairy cow deposits on farm roadways are a potential source of contaminants entering streams. Phosphorus (P), suspended sediment (SS) and Escherichia coli (E. coli) loads in 18 runoff events over 12 mo from two-halves of a section of dairy farm roadway that spilt into an adjacent P-impacted stream were measured. The runoff from one half was untreated while the other half was directed through a filter of steel melter slag [termed aluminium chlorohydrate (ACH)-altered slag] sprayed with 1% ACH solution to improve P sorption capacity. An uncertainty analysis was conducted to ascertain potential loads of P lost from roadways considering variation in deposit weight, number and P content. Over the monitoring period, the total load decreased P (92%), SS (98%) and E. coli (76%) from the ACH-altered slag roadway compared to the control. However, uncertainty analysis showed that the amount of dung-P deposited on the roadway could be 10-fold greater.
农场道路上的奶牛沉积物是进入溪流的污染物的潜在来源。测量了奶牛场道路的两半在12个月内发生的18次径流事件中的磷(P)、悬浮沉积物(SS)和大肠杆菌(E.coli)负荷,这些径流事件流入了受磷影响的相邻溪流。其中一半的径流未经处理,而另一半则直接通过喷有1%ACH溶液的钢熔化渣[称为氯化铝(ACH)改性渣]过滤器,以提高磷的吸附能力。考虑到沉积物重量、数量和磷含量的变化,进行了不确定性分析,以确定道路上磷损失的潜在负荷。在监测期间,与对照相比,ACH改性渣路的总负荷降低了P(92%)、SS(98%)和大肠杆菌(76%)。然而,不确定性分析表明,沉积在道路上的粪肥量可能会增加10倍。
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引用次数: 3
Performance and nutrient utilisation of dairy cows offered silages produced from three successive harvests of either a red clover–perennial ryegrass sward or a perennial ryegrass sward 对奶牛的生产性能和营养利用进行了研究,青贮饲料由连续三次收获的红三叶草-多年生黑麦草或多年生黑麦草制成
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0106
D. Johnston, A. Laidlaw, K. Theodoridou, C. Ferris
The need to reduce reliance on imported protein feeds within the UK and Ireland has stimulated interest in locally grown forage legume crops, including red clover ( Trifolium pratense L.). This 13-wk study examined the performance of 28 dairy cows offered silages produced from three successive harvests (H) of either a pure grass sward (GS) receiving 315 kg N/ha per annum or a red clover–perennial ryegrass sward (RCGS) receiving 22 kg N/ha per annum. The crops of H1, H2 and H3 were wilted for 48, 72 and 72 h, respectively. Silages from H1, H2 and H3 were offered for 5, 5 and 3 wk, respectively, with cows supplemented with 8.0 kg concentrate/d throughout the experiment. Digestibility of DM and the effectively degradable protein content were lower, while protein degradability was higher, for RCGS than for GS. Silage DM intakes (DMIs) were higher for RCGS than for GS at H1 and H2, with no differences at H3. Milk yield was higher with RCGS than with GS at H3, with no differences at H1 and H2. Milk fat and milk protein contents were lower with RCGS than with GS at H3 but did not differ at H1 and H2. Faecal N/N intake was higher in the RCGS group than in the GS group at H1, with no differences at H2 and H3. Gross energy digestibility was lower for RCGS than for GS at H2. Although cow performance was higher with RCGS treatment, the responses were variable between harvests, largely reflecting the changing proportion of RC in the swards as the season progressed.
英国和爱尔兰需要减少对进口蛋白质饲料的依赖,这刺激了人们对当地种植的饲料豆科作物的兴趣,包括红三叶草(Trifolium pratense L.)。这项为期13周的研究检测了28头奶牛的生产性能,这些奶牛的青贮饲料分别来自每年315公斤氮/公顷的纯草草(GS)和每年22公斤氮/公顷的红三叶草-多年生黑麦草(RCGS)的连续三次收获。H1、H2和H3的植株枯萎时间分别为48、72和72 h。H1、H2和H3青贮分别饲喂5、5和3周,试验期间奶牛添加8.0 kg精料/d。DM消化率和有效降解蛋白含量,RCGS均低于GS,而蛋白质降解率高于GS。在H1和H2阶段,RCGS的青贮DM采食量高于GS,但在H3阶段差异不显著。在H3时,RCGS的产奶量高于GS,在H1和H2时差异不显著。在H3时,RCGS的乳脂和乳蛋白含量低于GS,但在H1和H2时差异不显著。在H1时,RCGS组的粪便N/N摄取量高于GS组,在H2和H3时差异无统计学意义。在H2条件下,RCGS的总能消化率低于GS。尽管RCGS处理的奶牛生产性能更高,但不同收获期的响应是不同的,这在很大程度上反映了随着季节的进展,RC在草地中所占比例的变化。
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引用次数: 3
Ruminant grassland production systems in Ireland 爱尔兰反刍动物草原生产系统
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0118
M. O'Donovan, D. Hennessy, P. Creighton
In Ireland grazing systems provide the basis of sustainable livestock production, as grazed grass is the cheapest feed source of nutrients for ruminants. The main future objective for these systems is to achieve high grass utilisation, ensure system sustainability and maintain extremely high animal health and welfare. There is no reason why all three cannot be combined. Ireland’s national farm policy targets growth in exports to €19 billion per annum by 2025. This figure represents an 85% increase from the current 3 yr average. There are major improvements required in the areas of grassland management and its conversion into milk and meat to fulfil such a target. While every farm situation is unique due to varying soil types, climatic conditions, stocking rates and management capabilities, herbage production and utilisation is below optimum on most farms. Irish farms, especially dairy farms, are expanding and will continue to do so over the next number of years. Increasing stocking rates and more compact calving and lambing has resulted in increased spring feed demand. Extra grass needs be grown and utilised in this period to minimise the use of supplementary feed. This paper outlines the importance of grassland on Irish farms, and where farms can improve grassland management, to increase output, lower farm costs and improve further farm system sustainability.
在爱尔兰,放牧系统为可持续畜牧生产提供了基础,因为吃草是反刍动物最便宜的营养饲料来源。这些系统未来的主要目标是实现高草利用率,确保系统的可持续性,并保持极高的动物健康和福利。没有理由不能将这三者结合起来。爱尔兰的国家农业政策的目标是到2025年,出口每年增长190亿欧元。这一数字比目前3年的平均水平增长了85%。为了实现这一目标,需要在草原管理和将其转化为牛奶和肉类方面进行重大改进。由于土壤类型、气候条件、放养率和管理能力的不同,每个农场的情况都是独特的,但大多数农场的牧草生产和利用率都低于最佳水平。爱尔兰农场,尤其是奶牛场,正在扩张,并将在未来几年继续扩张。不断增加的放养率和更紧凑的产仔和产羔导致了春季饲料需求的增加。在此期间,需要种植和利用额外的草,以尽量减少补充饲料的使用。本文概述了草原在爱尔兰农场的重要性,以及农场可以改善草原管理、增加产量、降低农场成本和进一步提高农场系统可持续性的地方。
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引用次数: 12
Forecasting prices of dairy commodities – a comparison of linear and nonlinear models 乳品价格预测——线性与非线性模型的比较
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.15212/ijafr-2020-0101
B. G. Hansen
Dairy commodity prices have become more volatile over the last 10–11 yr. The aim of this paper was to produce reliable price forecasts for the most frequently traded dairy commodities. Altogether five linear and nonlinear time series models were applied. The analysis reveals that prices of dairy commodities reached a structural breakpoint in 2006/2007. The results also show that a combination of linear and nonlinear models is useful in forecasting commodity prices. In this study, the price of cheese is the most difficult to forecast, but a simple autoregressive (AR) model performs reasonably well after 12 mo. Similarly, for butter the AR model performs the best, while for skimmed milk powder (Smp), whole milk powder (Wmp) and whey powder (Whp) the nonlinear methods are the most accurate. However, few of the differences between models are significant according to the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. The findings could be of interest to the whole dairy industry.
在过去的10-11年里,乳制品价格变得更加不稳定。本文的目的是为交易最频繁的乳制品提供可靠的价格预测。总共应用了五种线性和非线性时间序列模型。分析表明,乳制品价格在2006/2007年达到了结构性转折点。结果还表明,线性模型和非线性模型相结合是预测商品价格的有效方法。在本研究中,奶酪的价格最难预测,但一个简单的自回归(AR)模型在12个月后表现相当好。同样,对于黄油,AR模型表现最好,而对于脱脂奶粉(Smp),全脂奶粉(Wmp)和乳清粉(Whp),非线性方法是最准确的。然而,根据Diebold-Mariano (DM)检验,模型之间的差异很少是显著的。这一发现可能会引起整个乳制品行业的兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring total factor productivity on Irish dairy farms: a Fisher index approach using farm-level data 衡量爱尔兰奶牛场的全要素生产率:使用农场水平数据的费舍尔指数方法
IF 1.5 4区 农林科学 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2020-11-21 DOI: 10.15212/IJAFR-2020-0107
M. McCormack, F. Thorne, K. Hanrahan
This paper presents a Fisher index measure of the total factor productivity (TFP) performance of Irish dairy farms over the period 2006–2016 using the Teagasc National Farm Survey (NFS) data. The removal of milk quotas in 2015 has led to an increase of over 30% in dairy cow numbers since 2010, and although suckler cow numbers have dropped slightly, the total number of cows in Ireland reached an all-time high of 2.5 million head in 2016. This large increase adds to the environmental pressures attributed to agricultural output and puts the focus firmly on how efficiently the additional agricultural output associated with higher cow numbers is produced. The primary purpose of this paper is to identify a standardised measure of the TFP performance of Irish dairy farms that can be routinely updated using Teagasc NFS data. We found that relative to 2010 the TFP of Irish dairy farms has increased by almost 18%; however, in one production year 2015, when milk quota was removed, the TFP measure increased by 7% and TFP continued to grow by 2.5% in the production year 2016. It would seem therefore that the removal of the European dairy quota system has resulted in a windfall gain for Irish dairy farmers but that productivity gains are continuing. Future data will be required to investigate the longer-term TFP performance of Irish dairy farms in the post-milk quota era.
本文采用Teagasc国家农场调查(NFS)数据,采用Fisher指数衡量2006-2016年期间爱尔兰奶牛场的全要素生产率(TFP)表现。2015年取消牛奶配额导致奶牛数量自2010年以来增加了30%以上,尽管乳牛数量略有下降,但2016年爱尔兰奶牛总数达到250万头的历史最高水平。这一大幅增长增加了农业产量带来的环境压力,并将重点放在如何有效地生产与奶牛数量增加相关的额外农业产量上。本文的主要目的是确定爱尔兰奶牛场TFP绩效的标准化衡量标准,该标准可以使用Teagasc NFS数据进行常规更新。我们发现,与2010年相比,爱尔兰奶牛场的全要素生产率增长了近18%;然而,在2015年的一个生产年度,当牛奶配额被取消时,TFP指标增长了7%,在2016年的生产年度,TFP继续增长2.5%。因此,欧洲乳制品配额制度的取消似乎给爱尔兰奶农带来了意外之财,但生产率的提高仍在继续。未来的数据将需要调查后牛奶配额时代爱尔兰奶牛场的长期TFP表现。
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引用次数: 3
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Irish Journal of Agricultural and Food Research
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