Jeffrey S. Young, Tanner McCarty, Sarah R. Lancaster, Mandy D. Bish
U.S. soybean farmers are currently grappling with dicamba herbicide drift. Using a network diffusion framework that accommodates key features of soybean farmer networks, we estimate the damages incurred from dicamba drift across different regions. Under our baseline assumptions, we estimate an average yield loss of 3% and predict sizable levels of forced switching to dicamba-resistant seed in response to drift. The relative importance of drift on damage and seed choice holds across a range of economic and network assumptions. In the absence of policy, this damage may cause regional adoption rates of dicamba-resistant soybean seed to increase.
{"title":"Modeling Soybean Planting Decisions with Network Diffusion: Does Herbicide Drift Affect Farmer Profitability and Seed Selection?","authors":"Jeffrey S. Young, Tanner McCarty, Sarah R. Lancaster, Mandy D. Bish","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.17","url":null,"abstract":"U.S. soybean farmers are currently grappling with dicamba herbicide drift. Using a network diffusion framework that accommodates key features of soybean farmer networks, we estimate the damages incurred from dicamba drift across different regions. Under our baseline assumptions, we estimate an average yield loss of 3% and predict sizable levels of forced switching to dicamba-resistant seed in response to drift. The relative importance of drift on damage and seed choice holds across a range of economic and network assumptions. In the absence of policy, this damage may cause regional adoption rates of dicamba-resistant soybean seed to increase.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46273530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hyun Jin Lim, R. Karina Gallardo, Michael P. Brady
Abstract We use a dynamic model of the U.S. apple industry separated into organic and conventional production to better measure the impacts of pest or disease outbreaks on producers and consumers, along with an equilibrium displacement model to simulate welfare effects from various shocks compared to a baseline. Our results show that the impacts of the outbreaks differ between organic and conventional production methods. Growers’ and consumers’ responses to shocks differ widely across the industry. Farmers and policy makers should use these findings to appropriately respond to different shocks and production methods.
{"title":"Interactions Between Organic and Conventional Markets from Pest and Disease Outbreaks: The Case of the U.S. Apple Industry","authors":"Hyun Jin Lim, R. Karina Gallardo, Michael P. Brady","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.11","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We use a dynamic model of the U.S. apple industry separated into organic and conventional production to better measure the impacts of pest or disease outbreaks on producers and consumers, along with an equilibrium displacement model to simulate welfare effects from various shocks compared to a baseline. Our results show that the impacts of the outbreaks differ between organic and conventional production methods. Growers’ and consumers’ responses to shocks differ widely across the industry. Farmers and policy makers should use these findings to appropriately respond to different shocks and production methods.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":"115 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135703355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the effects of genetic improvement policies on dairy production, with a particular emphasis on Artificial Insemination projects. Furthermore, we evaluate the major barriers and challenges of Artificial Insemination projects including water scarcity. Using the data-driven synthetic control method, we found evidence that the Artificial Insemination projects caused milk production to increase by 59 thousand tons on average from 2008 to 2018. This could be correlated with food security (i.e., synergies), but increased dairy production may also place strain on Senegal’s water resources (i.e. trade-offs). To achieve a more efficient outcome, Senegalese dairy policies should consider the negative externalities of these projects on water resources.
{"title":"Synergies and Trade-offs Between the Food Policy Objectives: Evidence from the Dairy Sector of Senegal","authors":"O. Zamani, A. Gunarathne","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.8","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study investigates the effects of genetic improvement policies on dairy production, with a particular emphasis on Artificial Insemination projects. Furthermore, we evaluate the major barriers and challenges of Artificial Insemination projects including water scarcity. Using the data-driven synthetic control method, we found evidence that the Artificial Insemination projects caused milk production to increase by 59 thousand tons on average from 2008 to 2018. This could be correlated with food security (i.e., synergies), but increased dairy production may also place strain on Senegal’s water resources (i.e. trade-offs). To achieve a more efficient outcome, Senegalese dairy policies should consider the negative externalities of these projects on water resources.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43624448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impact of the row planting method on maize productivity and risk exposure using panel datasets from Ethiopia. A flexible moment-based production function is fitted to capture the expected yield, yield variance, and exposure to downside risk. A Mundlak–Chamberlain approach is combined with a switching regression treatment effects model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The study shows that adopters of the row planting method significantly reduced exposure to downside risk while increasing expected yield. The analysis also identified some household and environmental conditions that affect the gain from the row planting method.
{"title":"Does Row Planting Enhance Farm Productivity and Reduce Risk Exposure? Insights From Ethiopia","authors":"M. H. Ahmed","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.12","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study examines the impact of the row planting method on maize productivity and risk exposure using panel datasets from Ethiopia. A flexible moment-based production function is fitted to capture the expected yield, yield variance, and exposure to downside risk. A Mundlak–Chamberlain approach is combined with a switching regression treatment effects model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The study shows that adopters of the row planting method significantly reduced exposure to downside risk while increasing expected yield. The analysis also identified some household and environmental conditions that affect the gain from the row planting method.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43536290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sheppard G. Rogers, T. Schroeder, G. Tonsor, Brian K. Coffey
The United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service (USDA AMS) began publishing formula base price information in August 2021. Considerable variation in the types of cattle priced via formula has raised questions about the level of base price transparency that can be gleaned from formula base price reports. This study employs 6 years of transactions to estimate hedonic models assessing the capability of existing data to describe variation in formula base prices. Results suggest factors beyond those reported to USDA AMS by packers influence base prices. We offer suggestions for improved data collection to make hedonic modeling of base prices more effective for reporting market information.
{"title":"Describing Variation in Formula Base Prices for U.S.-Fed Cattle: A Hedonic Approach","authors":"Sheppard G. Rogers, T. Schroeder, G. Tonsor, Brian K. Coffey","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.9","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service (USDA AMS) began publishing formula base price information in August 2021. Considerable variation in the types of cattle priced via formula has raised questions about the level of base price transparency that can be gleaned from formula base price reports. This study employs 6 years of transactions to estimate hedonic models assessing the capability of existing data to describe variation in formula base prices. Results suggest factors beyond those reported to USDA AMS by packers influence base prices. We offer suggestions for improved data collection to make hedonic modeling of base prices more effective for reporting market information.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42653965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The profitability of U.S. meat producers and the utility of U.S. meat consumers are impacted by the trade of meat. USDA publishes the most prominent publicly available meat trade projections. This study finds USDA projections typically underpredict meat export volumes and overpredict meat import volumes. USDA projections outperform naïve projections for beef and pork exports, but naïve projections at times outperform USDA projections for chicken exports and beef and pork imports, especially at shorter horizons. USDA projections exclude variety cuts, which comprise a sizeable share of beef and pork exports. There remains room for improvement in projecting U.S. meat trade.
{"title":"USDA Long-Term Meat Trade Projections: A Comprehensive Evaluation","authors":"Jaime R. Luke, G. Tonsor","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.13","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The profitability of U.S. meat producers and the utility of U.S. meat consumers are impacted by the trade of meat. USDA publishes the most prominent publicly available meat trade projections. This study finds USDA projections typically underpredict meat export volumes and overpredict meat import volumes. USDA projections outperform naïve projections for beef and pork exports, but naïve projections at times outperform USDA projections for chicken exports and beef and pork imports, especially at shorter horizons. USDA projections exclude variety cuts, which comprise a sizeable share of beef and pork exports. There remains room for improvement in projecting U.S. meat trade.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46424394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cora Key, C. Boyer, Charles C. Martinez, Katie M Mason
We determine optimal stocker strategies based on calving season, herd size, and the number of days of retention before marketing weaned calves. We estimate a hedonic pricing model for feeder cattle and incorporate this into a simulation model that considers the variability of cattle prices and feed costs. The profit and utility-maximizing decision for fall calving herd would be to retain weaned calves for 150-day postweaning. The producer marketing spring-born calves would prefer to sell these calves at weaning. The results are being utilized by extension to aid cattle producers in reducing their feed costs and increasing their profits.
{"title":"Optimal Stocker Production Strategies for Spring and Fall Calving Cow Herd","authors":"Cora Key, C. Boyer, Charles C. Martinez, Katie M Mason","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.6","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We determine optimal stocker strategies based on calving season, herd size, and the number of days of retention before marketing weaned calves. We estimate a hedonic pricing model for feeder cattle and incorporate this into a simulation model that considers the variability of cattle prices and feed costs. The profit and utility-maximizing decision for fall calving herd would be to retain weaned calves for 150-day postweaning. The producer marketing spring-born calves would prefer to sell these calves at weaning. The results are being utilized by extension to aid cattle producers in reducing their feed costs and increasing their profits.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44147319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Applying the difference-in-difference (DID) estimation procedure, this study quantifies the wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) induced losses in wheat yield, quantity of wheat sold, consumed, or stored, as well as wheat grain value in Bangladesh in 2016 following a disease outbreak that affected over 15,000 ha. Estimates show that the blast-induced yield loss was 540 kg ha−1 on average for households in blast-affected districts. Estimated total wheat production loss was approximately 8,205 tons worth USD 2.1 million in during the 2016 outbreak. Based on these insights, we discuss the need for long-term assured investment and concerted research efforts in controlling transboundary diseases such as wheat blast, including the importance of weather forecast driven early warning systems and the dissemination of blast-resistant varieties.
本研究应用差异（DID）估计程序，量化了2016年孟加拉国爆发的影响超过15000公顷的疾病后，稻瘟病（稻瘟病致病型小麦）导致的小麦产量、小麦销售、消费或储存量以及小麦籽粒价值的损失。据估计，受爆炸影响地区的家庭因爆炸造成的产量损失平均为540 kg ha−1。2016年疫情期间，估计小麦总产量损失约为8205吨，价值210万美元。基于这些见解，我们讨论了在控制小麦瘟病等跨界疾病方面进行长期有保证的投资和协调一致的研究工作的必要性，包括天气预报驱动的预警系统和传播抗药性品种的重要性。
{"title":"Quantifying Wheat Blast Disease Induced Yield and Production Losses of Wheat: A Quasi-Natural Experiment","authors":"K. Mottaleb, D. Hodson, T. Krupnik, K. Sonder","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.2","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Applying the difference-in-difference (DID) estimation procedure, this study quantifies the wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) induced losses in wheat yield, quantity of wheat sold, consumed, or stored, as well as wheat grain value in Bangladesh in 2016 following a disease outbreak that affected over 15,000 ha. Estimates show that the blast-induced yield loss was 540 kg ha−1 on average for households in blast-affected districts. Estimated total wheat production loss was approximately 8,205 tons worth USD 2.1 million in during the 2016 outbreak. Based on these insights, we discuss the need for long-term assured investment and concerted research efforts in controlling transboundary diseases such as wheat blast, including the importance of weather forecast driven early warning systems and the dissemination of blast-resistant varieties.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48632925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kimberly B. Oliver, M. Popp, Di Fang, John D. Anderson, N. Slaton, G. Drescher, T. Roberts, Jada M. Thompson
Profitability, yield, and fertilizer use are compared across three different potassium (K) fertilizer rate recommendation ideologies. Existing agronomic, “build and maintain” rate recommendations (KE) are compared to profit-maximizing rates with and without taking long-run soil-test K (STK) implications into account. Regardless of starting STK, K use equilibrated over the course of 3 years irrespective of ideology. Since taking long-run STK into account did not alter ending STK and only led to a miniscule yield effect, we encourage producers to use annual profit-maximizing K rates that were 3–11% lower than KE rates and generated more profit with minimal yield loss.
{"title":"Potassium Fertilizer Rate Recommendations: Does Accounting for Soil Stock of Potassium Matter?","authors":"Kimberly B. Oliver, M. Popp, Di Fang, John D. Anderson, N. Slaton, G. Drescher, T. Roberts, Jada M. Thompson","doi":"10.1017/aae.2023.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2023.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Profitability, yield, and fertilizer use are compared across three different potassium (K) fertilizer rate recommendation ideologies. Existing agronomic, “build and maintain” rate recommendations (KE) are compared to profit-maximizing rates with and without taking long-run soil-test K (STK) implications into account. Regardless of starting STK, K use equilibrated over the course of 3 years irrespective of ideology. Since taking long-run STK into account did not alter ending STK and only led to a miniscule yield effect, we encourage producers to use annual profit-maximizing K rates that were 3–11% lower than KE rates and generated more profit with minimal yield loss.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43625844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present an optimal control model to simultaneously determine the optimal planting density, thinning schedules, harvest age, and revenues of an even-aged longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill) stand, an iconic species in the Southeastern United States. We assume that the forest stand is managed for timber production and carbon sequestration under different site indexes—a measurement of potential forest productivity. Our simulation results show that the optimal planting density tends to increase when longleaf pine is managed in medium and high site indexes. Furthermore, the optimal harvest age tends to be extended with payments for carbon sequestration.
{"title":"Optimal Forest Management of Even-Aged Longleaf Pine Stands with Nontimber Benefits","authors":"A. Susaeta","doi":"10.1017/aae.2022.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2022.41","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We present an optimal control model to simultaneously determine the optimal planting density, thinning schedules, harvest age, and revenues of an even-aged longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill) stand, an iconic species in the Southeastern United States. We assume that the forest stand is managed for timber production and carbon sequestration under different site indexes—a measurement of potential forest productivity. Our simulation results show that the optimal planting density tends to increase when longleaf pine is managed in medium and high site indexes. Furthermore, the optimal harvest age tends to be extended with payments for carbon sequestration.","PeriodicalId":14970,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42244012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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