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Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation 可用性级联和风险管理
Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.2307/1229439
T. Kuran, C. Sunstein
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception of increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse. The driving mechanism involves a combination of informational and reputational motives: Individuals endorse the perception partly by learning from the apparent beliefs of others and partly by distorting their public responses in the interest of maintaining social acceptance. Availability entrepreneurs - activists who manipulate the content of public discourse - strive to trigger availability cascades likely to advance their agendas. Their availability campaigns may yield social benefits, but sometimes they bring harm, which suggests a need for safeguards. Focusing on the role of mass pressures in the regulation of risks associated with production, consumption, and the environment, Professor Timur Kuran and Cass R. Sunstein analyze availability cascades and suggest reforms to alleviate their potential hazards. Their proposals include new governmental structures designed to give civil servants better insulation against mass demands for regulatory change and an easily accessible scientific database to reduce people's dependence on popular (mis)perceptions.
可得性级联是一种自我强化的集体信念形成过程,通过这种过程,一种表达出来的感知会引发连锁反应,通过在公共话语中不断增加的可得性,让人觉得这种感知越来越可信。驱动机制包括信息动机和声誉动机的结合:个人认可这种感知,部分是通过学习他人的明显信念,部分是通过扭曲自己的公开反应来维持社会接受。可用性企业家——操纵公共话语内容的活动家——努力触发可能推进其议程的可用性级联。它们的可用性活动可能会产生社会效益,但有时也会带来危害,这表明需要采取保障措施。Timur Kuran教授和Cass R. Sunstein教授着眼于大规模压力在监管与生产、消费和环境相关的风险中的作用,分析了可用性级联,并提出了减轻其潜在危害的改革建议。他们的建议包括新的政府结构,旨在使公务员更好地与群众要求监管改革的要求隔离开来,以及一个易于访问的科学数据库,以减少人们对流行(错误)观念的依赖。
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引用次数: 656
Competitive Location and Pricing on Networks 网络上的竞争位置和定价
Pub Date : 1999-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.54871
D. Serra, C. Revelle
In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market where a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firms seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximizes profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presented to solve the model together with computational experience.
在本文中,我们考虑了一个零售公司的位置和定价模型,该零售公司想要进入一个空间市场,而竞争对手已经以垄断经营的方式经营了几个网点。考虑到竞争对手对其进入的价格反应,进入的企业寻求确定利润最大化的最优统一工厂价格及其服务器位置。结合计算经验,提出了禁忌搜索算法求解该模型。
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引用次数: 69
Specialized Capital, Rental Contracts, and Localization 专业资本、租赁合同和本地化
Pub Date : 1999-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.190418
Louis M. Chan
This paper shows that there are benefits from the sharing of specialized capital because rental contracts are less costly than sole-ownership-use contracts when using specialized capital. We show that the benefits from the sharing of specialized capital come from the fact that a specialized capital is a quasi-public good - rivalrous if used at the same time but non-rivalrous if used at different times. We also show that rental contracts tend to be localized within cities in order to minimize the costs of transportation and density.
本文表明,在使用专业资本时,租赁合同比独资-使用合同成本更低,因此共享专业资本是有好处的。我们表明,专业资本共享的好处来自于这样一个事实,即专业资本是一种准公共产品——在同一时间使用时是竞争性的,而在不同时间使用时则是非竞争性的。我们还表明,租赁合同倾向于在城市内本地化,以尽量减少运输成本和密度。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Capacity Adjustment by a Multiplant Firm: Knowledge, Technology, Human Capital 多工厂企业最优产能调整:知识、技术、人力资本
Pub Date : 1999-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.159609
M. Moretto
The paper studies the effect of scale economies on the optimal capacity adjustment of a multiplant firm. It is shown that with increasing economies of scale plants are ranked in decreasing order, after which the optimal choice is to scrap the largest one. On the contrary, if there are decreasing economies of scale the optimal policy would be to wait before abandoning intermediate plants. That is, decreasing economies of scale amplify the effect of uncertainty on disinvestment and tend to increase the plant's life.
本文研究了规模经济对多厂企业最优产能调整的影响。研究表明,随着规模经济的增加,工厂的规模经济排序由大到小,之后的最优选择是淘汰规模最大的工厂。相反,如果规模经济在下降,最优的策略是在放弃中间工厂之前等待。也就是说,规模经济的减少放大了不确定性对撤资的影响,并倾向于延长工厂的寿命。
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引用次数: 0
Brief History of the B.S.N. / Saint-Gobain Takeover Attempt (December 1968-January 1969) B.S.N. /圣戈班收购企图简史(1968年12月- 1969年1月)
Pub Date : 1999-02-26 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.144768
Gérard Hirigoyen
This article describes B.S.N's vain attempt from December 1968 to January 1969 to takeover Saint-Gobain . The hostile bid was unprecedented in French Economical history, not only for the size of the offer but also for the use of Convertible Bonds. B.S.N.'s bid stemmed from the diversity of Saint-Gobain's shareholders and the poor performance of its share price. However, Saint-Gobain's reaction was equally unprecedented. A vigorous campaign was undertaken in the business press to rectify its tarnished image and shareholders were invited to visit the company in order to consolidate their cultural identity. B.S.N.'s own communication policy failed and the use of convertible bonds was not appreciated. Indeed, Saint Gobain's share price did not fall sufficiently during the bid to entice shareholders to take advantage of B.S.N's proposals.
这篇文章描述了1968年12月到1969年1月B.S.N试图收购圣戈班的失败尝试。这一敌意收购在法国经济史上是史无前例的,不仅就收购规模而言,就可转换债券的使用而言也是如此。B.S.N.由于圣戈班股东的多样性以及其股价的低迷表现,该公司决定收购圣戈班。然而,圣戈班的反应同样是前所未有的。在商业媒体上进行了一场激烈的运动,以纠正其玷污的形象,并邀请股东参观公司,以巩固他们的文化认同。B.S.N.欧盟自身的沟通政策失败了,可转换债券的使用也不受欢迎。事实上,圣戈班银行的股价在收购期间并没有下跌到足以吸引股东从bsn的提议中获利。
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引用次数: 2
Extending Market Power Through Vertical Integration 通过垂直整合扩大市场力量
Pub Date : 1999-02-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.152252
Catherine de Fontenay, J. Gans
This paper derives a model of vertical integration when it is difficult to write bindinglong-term supply price contracts. Thus, a vertically separated monopolist is vulnerable tohold-up. Without integration, we demonstrate that a bottleneck monopolist has anincentive to encourage more firms in a related segment than would arise in a puremonopoly. Having more firms mitigates the hold-up power of any one. This, however,distorts the cost structure of the industry toward greater industry output and, hence,lowers final good prices. Vertical integration mitigates the hold-up problem faced by themonopolist. It allows it to generate and appropriate a greater share of monopoly profits.Horizontal competition mitigates the anti-competitive effects of integration
本文推导了难以制定具有约束力的长期供给价格合同时的垂直整合模型。因此,垂直分离的垄断者很容易被劫持。在没有整合的情况下,我们证明了瓶颈垄断者没有激励更多的公司进入相关领域,而不是纯粹垄断。拥有更多的公司会减轻任何一家公司的支配力。然而,这扭曲了行业的成本结构,使其趋向于更高的行业产出,从而降低了最终产品的价格。垂直整合减轻了垄断者所面临的拖延问题。它允许它产生并占有更大份额的垄断利润。横向竞争减轻了一体化的反竞争效应
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引用次数: 12
Surviving in a Competitive Spatial Market: The Threshold Capture Model 在竞争空间市场中生存:阈值捕获模型
Pub Date : 1999-02-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.159227
D. Serra, C. Revelle, K. Rosing
Most facility location decision models ignore the fact that for a facility to survive it needs a minimum demand level to cover costs. In this paper we present a decision model for a firm that wishes to enter a spatial market where there are several competitors already located. This market is such that for each outlet there is a demand threshold level that has to be achieved in order to survive. The firm wishes to know where to locate its outlets so as to maximize its market share taking into account the threshold level. It may happen that due to this new entrance, some competitors will not be able to meet the threshold and therefore will disappear. A formulation is presented together with a heuristic solution method and computational experience.
大多数设施选址决策模型都忽略了这样一个事实:一个设施要生存下去,就需要一个最低需求水平来覆盖成本。在本文中,我们提出了一个企业的决策模型,希望进入一个空间市场,其中有几个竞争者已经定位。这个市场是这样的,每个网点都有一个需求门槛,必须达到这个门槛才能生存。考虑到门槛水平,公司希望知道在哪里定位其网点,以便最大化其市场份额。可能会发生的是,由于这个新的进入,一些竞争对手将无法达到门槛,因此将消失。给出了一个公式,并给出了一种启发式求解方法和计算经验。
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引用次数: 41
Electricity Restructuring in Ukraine: Illusions of Power in the Power Industry? 乌克兰电力结构调整:电力行业的权力幻觉?
Pub Date : 1999-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.142269
H. Ryding
This paper describes the current state of restructuring in the electricity industry in Ukraine, arguing that the aim of any restructuring must be to increase efficiency, whether managerial, economic or technical. In the case of the Ukrainian power industry there is scope for all three. The current remedies proposed for this problem are competition and privatisation. The paper also shows how multi-donor teams of consultants have tried to quickly implement a complex restructuring within the industry, without a clear strategy, sequence, or adequate resources, at a time when the priorities for the industry itself have been to deal with the disturbances caused by the external political and economic environment.
本文描述了乌克兰电力行业重组的现状,认为任何重组的目的都必须是提高效率,无论是管理,经济还是技术。就乌克兰电力行业而言,这三者都有发展空间。目前针对这一问题提出的补救措施是竞争和私有化。该文件还显示,在该行业本身的优先事项是处理外部政治和经济环境造成的干扰的情况下,在没有明确的战略、顺序或充足资源的情况下,由多个捐助者组成的顾问团队如何试图在该行业内迅速实施复杂的重组。
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引用次数: 7
Auction Size and Price Dynamics in Sequential Auctions 顺序拍卖中的拍卖规模和价格动态
Pub Date : 1999-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.150602
G. Deltas
This paper uses a unique data-set collected in a consistent way over a number of different auctions to investigate how empirical regularities in sequential auctions depend on the number of lots sold in those auctions. It is shown that prices tend to decline faster in auctions in which a small number of lots were sold. Starting prices tend to be higher in auctions with fewer lots, while average prices are higher in auctions with more lots. Price declines do not appear to be localized at the end of the auctions. Finally, there is no evidence of (i) serial correlation in prices, (ii) changes in price volatility over the course of each auction, and (iii) a systematic relationship between price volatility and number of lots sold.
本文使用一个独特的数据集,以一致的方式收集了许多不同的拍卖,以研究顺序拍卖的经验规律如何依赖于这些拍卖中售出的拍品数量。研究表明,在少量拍品被售出的拍卖会上,价格往往下降得更快。在拍品较少的拍卖会上,起拍价往往较高,而拍品较多的拍卖会上,平均价格则较高。拍卖结束时,价格下跌似乎并不局限于局部地区。最后,没有证据表明(i)价格之间存在序列相关性,(ii)每次拍卖过程中价格波动的变化,以及(iii)价格波动与售出手数之间存在系统关系。
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引用次数: 10
Public Infrastructure, Private Input Demand, and Economic Performance of the Greek Industry 公共基础设施、私人投入需求和希腊工业的经济表现
Pub Date : 1999-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.185635
E. Mamatzakis
In this paper we examine the effects of the services provided by public infrastructure on the cost structure, private input demands, and productivity performance of twenty two-digit Greek manufacturing industries. The model of the paper is the dual cost function. Although the effects of public infrastructure varies across different industries our results provide evidence in favour of a productive public infrastructure. In addition, public infrastructure is found to be complement to private capital stock and substitute to labour. Specifically, the cost-saving impact of public infrastructure ranges from 0.02 percent in food manufacturing industry to 0.78 percent in wood and cork. Moreover, empirical evidence is provided in favour of the argument that the productivity growth of the majority of the twenty Greek manufacturing industries has been depressed by the observed shortage in public infrastructure in the eighties.
在本文中,我们研究了公共基础设施提供的服务对希腊22个两位数制造业的成本结构、私人投入需求和生产率表现的影响。本文的模型是双重成本函数。尽管公共基础设施的影响在不同的行业中有所不同,但我们的研究结果提供了有利于生产性公共基础设施的证据。此外,公共基础设施被认为是私人资本存量的补充和劳动力的替代品。具体来说,公共基础设施的成本节约影响从食品制造业的0.02%到木材和软木的0.78%不等。此外,提供的经验证据支持以下论点,即20个希腊制造业中的大多数的生产率增长受到80年代公共基础设施短缺的抑制。
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引用次数: 14
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Industrial Organization & Regulation eJournal
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