This study develops a micro-level Ricardian model to assess how long-run climate patterns affect agricultural land values across the urban–rural gradient in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Using an 8-km gridded dataset that combines farmland prices, high-resolution climate data, and urban land cover, the analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation affect land values nonlinearly, and urbanization significantly moderates the effects of precipitation. A climate simulation suggests heterogeneous impacts across urban grids. Our findings highlight the critical role of urban land cover in shaping climate adaptation strategies, offering new insights into how transitional urban-agricultural regions respond to climate stress. These results provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to enhance agricultural resilience in the face of continued urban expansion.
{"title":"The effect of urban climate shifts on land values in the Chesapeake Bay area","authors":"Junyi Hua, H. Allen Klaiber, Douglas H. Wrenn","doi":"10.1002/jeq2.70125","DOIUrl":"10.1002/jeq2.70125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study develops a micro-level Ricardian model to assess how long-run climate patterns affect agricultural land values across the urban–rural gradient in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Using an 8-km gridded dataset that combines farmland prices, high-resolution climate data, and urban land cover, the analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation affect land values nonlinearly, and urbanization significantly moderates the effects of precipitation. A climate simulation suggests heterogeneous impacts across urban grids. Our findings highlight the critical role of urban land cover in shaping climate adaptation strategies, offering new insights into how transitional urban-agricultural regions respond to climate stress. These results provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to enhance agricultural resilience in the face of continued urban expansion.</p>","PeriodicalId":15732,"journal":{"name":"Journal of environmental quality","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145781321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Facundo Lussich, Ryan Ackett, Jashanjeet Kaur Dhaliwal, Hao Gan, Debasish Saha
Accurate prediction of N2O emissions in agricultural systems is essential for developing effective climate-smart practices. This study introduces a novel ensemble approach, termed the “Class-Swap” machine learning model, which employs two independent Random Forest (RF) models trained separately on background and hot-moment emissions. A statistical anomaly detection algorithm first classifies each flux observation, and the model then swaps between the two RF models accordingly, enabling emission-specific predictions based on distinct biogeochemical drivers. The objective was to evaluate the performance of this approach against traditional RF modeling in predicting N2O fluxes from a long-term continuous cotton crop rotation in west Tennessee, which includes different tillage, N fertilization, and cover cropping treatments. The Class-Swap approach consistently outperformed traditional RF models on an independent unseen holdout dataset, achieving higher R2 values (0.33–0.34 vs. 0.08–0.25) and lower root mean square error (9.8–9.9 vs. 10.5–11.6 g N2O-N ha−1 day−1), while accurately capturing the magnitude and temporal dynamics of emissions—something traditional RF models failed to replicate. Key predictors varied by emission type: in the background emission model, moderate to high soil moisture (0.45–0.70 WFPS), soil