Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health最新文献

Background: It remains unknown how the patterns of change of social isolation and loneliness are associated with the onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of changes in social isolation and loneliness with incident CVD, all-cause mortality, CVD mortality and subsequent cardiac function.

Methods: This prospective cohort study included 18,258 participants aged 38-73 years who participated in visit 0 (2006-2010) and visit 1 (2012-2013) using UK Biobank (mean age 57.1, standard deviation [SD] 7.4; 48.7% males). Social isolation or loneliness was categorized into four patterns: never, transient, incident, and persistent. Incident CVD, all-cause and CVD mortality were ascertained through linkage data. Cardiac function was assessed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in a subsample (N = 5188; visit 2, since 2014).

Results: Over a median follow-up of 8.3 (interquartile range [IQR] 8.1-8.6) years, compared with never social isolation, persistent social isolation was associated with the higher risk of incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.33), all-cause (1.42, 1.12-1.81) and CVD (1.53, 1.05-2.23) mortality. Likewise, persistent loneliness was strongly associated with the greater risk of incident CVD (1.13, 1.00-1.27), all-cause (1.28, 1.02-1.61) and CVD mortality (1.52, 1.06-2.18).

Conclusions: Persistent social isolation and loneliness posed a substantially higher risk for incident CVD, all-cause and CVD mortality, and cardiac dysfunction than other patterns. Persistent social isolation and loneliness, along with an increasing cumulative score, are associated with lower cardiac function.

Humans are infected by Toxoplasma gondii worldwide and its consequences may seriously affect an immune deprived population such as HIV and transplanted patients or pregnant women and foetuses. A deep knowledge of toxoplasmosis seroprevalence in Spain is needed in order to better shape health policies and educational programs. We present the results of the first systematic review and meta-analysis on the human prevalence for this disease in Spain. Databases (PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS and Teseo) were searched for relevant studies that were published between January 1993 and December 2023 and all population-based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies reporting the human seroprevalence in Spain were revised. Within the population analysed, our targeted groups were immunocompetent population, pregnant women and immunocompromised patients. Among 572 studies and 35 doctoral theses retrieved, 15 studies and three doctoral theses were included in the meta-analysis. A random effects model was used for the meta-analyses due to the high heterogeneity found between studies (I²: 99.97), since it is a statistically conservative model, in addition to allowing better external validity. The global pooled seroprevalence was 32.3% (95% CI 28.7-36.2%). Most of the studies carried out were in pregnant women and the meta-analysis reported that the pooled seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women in Spain was 24.4% (24,737/85,703, 95% CI 21.2-28.0%), based on the random effects model. It is recommended to continue monitoring the seroprevalence status of T. gondii in order to obtain essential guidelines for the prevention and control of the infection in the population.

Objective: To evaluate age-specific multimorbidity patterns and morbidity burden on mortality and healthcare expenditure across age groups.

Patients and methods: Retrospective observational study between January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2017 using electronic health records in Hong Kong: Individuals were stratified by age (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80), and sub-classified by number of morbidities (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) out of 21 common chronic conditions. Clustering analyses were conducted to identify specific patterns of multimorbidity. Association between the number as well as combinations of morbidities and all-cause mortality and public expenditure was examined.

Results: 4,562,832 individuals with a median follow-up of 7 years were included. Mental disorders were the top morbidities among young individuals, while cardiovascular diseases were prevalent in the elderly. An increased number of morbidities was associated with a greater relative risk for mortality and medical expenditure, and this relationship was stronger among younger patients. Compared to individuals in the same age group without morbidity, the hazard ratios (HR; 95% CI) of all-cause mortality in patients aged < 50 and ≥ 80 with two comorbidities 3.81 (3.60-4.03) and 1.38 (1.36-1.40), respectively, which increased to 14.22 (9.87-20.47) and 2.20 (2.13-2.26), respectively, as the number of morbidities increased to ≥ 4. The stroke-hypertension cluster was shown to be associated with the highest HR of mortality 2.48 (2.43-2.53) among all identified clusters arising from the clustering analysis.

Conclusion: Given the stronger association between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality and greater opportunity costs in younger populations, prevention and management of early-onset multimorbidity are warranted. (248 words).

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of global mortality. Early intervention and prevention of CVD depend on accurately predicting the risk of CVD. This study aimed to investigate the association between the TyG index and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), heart attack (HA), stroke, and hypertension (HTN) among patients without diabetes in the United States.

Methods: In this retrospective, cross-sectional study, we used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2001 to 2020. We conducted several regression analysis models and calculated the sensitivity and specificity of (TyG) index for predicting the onset of CHD, CHF, HA, stroke, and HTN.

Results: A total of 10,937 individuals without diabetes participated in our study. Individuals with a TyG index greater than 8.96 displayed significant increasing in various parameters, including BMI, systolic/diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL, and Apo-B levels (p < 0.001). Almost all regression models ensured that a higher TyGI value was associated with higher odds of having CHD, CHF, HA, stroke, and HTN, which patients with a TyGI value higher than 8.96 have odds ratios of 2.24-5.58 for CHD, 1.68-4.42 for stroke, 2.45-3.77 for HA and 1.75-3.93 for HTN comparing than patients with a TyGI value lower than 8.11 (p-value < 0.05).We evaluated the predictive value of the TyG index for each endpoint, obtaining the following area under the curve (AUC) values: 54.75% for CHF (95% CI: 0.542-0.614), 52.32% for stroke (95% CI: 0.529-0.584), 55.67% for HA (95% CI: 0.595-0.646), 55.59% for HTN (95% CI: 0.574-0.597), and 50.31% for CHD (95% CI: 0.592-0.646).

Conclusion: The TyG index showed a strong correlation with cardiovascular risk factors in individuals without diabetes, however it was a poor predictor of almost studied cardiovascular diseases.

Introduction: Monitoring changes in cessation behaviors and cessation assistance is critical for policymaking.

Methods: We analyzed two rounds (2009-2014 and 2015-2021) of Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in 13 countries. We estimated the quit ratio, quit attempt, and utilization of cessation assistance. The availability of cessation services was obtained from World Health Organization reports. We calculated absolute and relative changes in quit ratio, quit attempt, and cessation assistance. We assessed socio-economic determinants of cessation behaviors by binary logistic regression analyses on pooled data.

Results: In all countries during both rounds smoking prevalence was 7.6-33.8%, the quit ratio was 0.15-0.54%, and the quit attempt was 17.7-52.8%. Quit ratio improved in Indonesia by 100% but declined in Turkey by 56%. Quit attempts increased in Indonesia (31.9%), Mexico (16.9%) and China (15.9%) but decreased in Turkey (140.4%), Vietnam (43.1%), and Romania (62.4%). In both rounds, using at least one method was 12.5-99.8% while the WHO-recommended method was 4.1-88.4%. In both rounds "try to quit without any assistance" and "other methods" were the most frequently reported cessation assistance. Nicotine replacement therapy (0.2-25.3%) was frequently used as recommended cessation assistance. Nicotine replacement therapy was available in most countries but not quitline and support services.

Conclusion: Limited progress was made in smoking cessation behaviors and cessation assistance in most countries. Health education to improve demand for smoking cessation and availability of evidence-based, low-cost smoking cessation assistance including quit-smoking may improve quit ratios in the population.

COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population's age profile and the dominant variant. This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Basque Country region of Spain, which has the fourth highest proportion of elderly individuals worldwide. Using epidemiological data on hospitalizations, ICU admissions, fatalities, and vaccination coverage, we calibrated four versions of an ordinary differential equations model with varying assumptions on the age structure and transmission function. Counterfactual no-vaccine scenarios were simulated by setting the vaccination rate to zero while all other parameters were held constant. The initial vaccination rollout is estimated to have prevented 46,000 to 75,000 hospitalizations, 6,000 to 11,000 ICU admissions, and 15,000 to 24,000 deaths, reducing these outcomes by 73-86%. The most significant impact occurred during the third quarter of 2021, coinciding with the Delta variant's dominance and a vaccination rate exceeding 60%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination coverage had a more substantial effect on averted outcomes than vaccine efficacy. Overall, the vaccination campaign in the Basque Country significantly reduced severe COVID-19 outcomes, aligning with global estimates and demonstrating robustness across different modeling approaches.

Panic disorder (PD) is a severe anxiety disorder characterized by recurrent and unexpected panic attacks that cause intense distress. Despite the high prevalence of panic disorder and its significant impact on life, limited research has been conducted on its prevalence and their associated factors in Saudi Arabia. This study seeks to contribute to the understanding of PD among adults in Saudi Arabia by examining its prevalence and associated factors, using an online survey method. A validated questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted targeting 1276 Saudi adults. Data were collected electronically via Google Forms from the eligible participants. The questionnaire comprised three sections: sociodemographic information, medical history, and a validated diagnostic tool for PD. The prevalence of PD among Saudi adults was 13.1%. Most individuals with PD experienced their first panic attack before the age of 18. Only 38.3% individuals with PD sought medical attention, and approximately one-third of those who sought help did not receive a diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that significant risk factors for PD included being female; having chronic health problems, a comorbid psychiatric disorder, a high body mass index; and experiencing suicidal ideation (P < 0.05). The highest risk was associated with chronic diseases (adjusted odds ratio = 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 2.1-4.6). This study demonstrates that PD is a prevalent and debilitating mental health condition among Saudi Arabian adults. Non-mental health physicians should be aware of PD, as many cases remain undiagnosed.

Background: There is no consensus on the cause and effect of systemic chronic inflammation (SCI) regarding chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The impact of second-hand smoke (SHS) on COPD has reached inconsistent conclusions.

Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank cohort was followed up from the 2004-08 baseline survey to 31 December 2018. Among the selected 445,523 participants in the final analysis, Cox and linear regressions were performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of tobacco exposure with COPD risk and baseline levels of log-transformed inflammatory factors [βs (95% CIs)], respectively.

Results: Participants were followed up for a median of 12.1 years and 11,825 incident COPD events were documented. Ever-smokers were associated with a higher risk of COPD than non-smokers with non-weekly SHS exposure. A younger age to start smoking, a greater amount of daily tobacco consumption, and deeper inhalation were associated with increased risk of COPD and correlated with elevated levels of plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, all P_trend < 0.001) even two years before COPD onset. Among former smokers, COPD risk declined with longer smoking cessation (P_trend < 0.001) and those quitting smoking for over ten years presented no difference in COPD risk and hs-CRP level from non-smokers [HR (95% CI) = 1.05 (0.89, 1.25), β (95% CI) = 0.17 (- 0.09, 0.43)]. Among non-smokers, weekly SHS exposure was associated with a slightly higher COPD risk [HR (95% CI) = 1.06 (1.01, 1.12)].

Conclusions: Incremental exposure to tobacco smoke was related to elevated SCI level before COPD onset, then an increase in COPD susceptibility. Quitting smoking as early as possible is suggested as a practical approach to reducing COPD risk in smokers. Given the high prevalence of both COPD and SHS exposure, the risk associated with SHS exposure deserves attention.

Objectives: This study aimed to establish the exposure-lag-response effect between daily maximum temperature and stroke-related emergency department visits and to project heat-induced stroke impacts under global warming levels (GWL) of 2 °C and 4 °C.

Methods: Stroke-related emergency department visits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 were identified using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study population consisted of 1,100,074 initial stroke cases matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke controls. We employed Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) in a case-crossover study to investigate the association between temperature and stroke. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models with a Poisson function were used to correlate high-temperature exposure with annual stroke incidence rates. Projections were made under two global warming scenarios, GWL 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C, using Coupled General Circulation Model (GCMs). Baseline data from 1995 to 2014 were transformed for spatial distribution at the township level. Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was performed using Quantum GIS 3.2.0 software.

Results: DLNM exposure-lag-response effect revealed that daily maximum temperature exceeding 34 °C significantly increased the risk of stroke-related emergency department visits, particularly for ischemic stroke. Under the 2 °C GWL scenario, the frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 34 °C is projected to rise substantially by the median year of 2042, with a further increase to 92.6 ± 18.0 days/year by 2065 under the 4 °C GWL scenario. Ischemic stroke showed the highest increase in temperature-related incidence rates, notably rising from 7.80% under the GWL 2 °C to 36.06% under the GWL 4 °C. Specifically, the annual temperature-related incidence rate for ischemic stroke is expected to increase significantly by 2065. Regions such as Taichung, Hsinchu, Yilan, and Taitung demonstrated pronounced changes in heat-related ischemic stroke incidence under the GWL 4 °C.

Conclusions: The findings emphasize the importance of addressing temperature-related stroke risks, particularly in regions projected to experience significant temperature increases. Effective mitigation strategies are crucial to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on stroke incidence and safeguard public health.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented changes globally, significantly affecting public health sectors, including paediatric road trauma. This study aims to explore the changes in paediatric road trauma presentations and outcomes before and after the COVID-19 lockdown.

Methods: This retrospective study analysed paediatric trauma data from the Saudi TraumA Registry (STAR) from August 2017 to December 2022, comparing pre- and post-COVID-19 lockdown periods (August 2017-March 2020 and July 2020-December 2022, respectively). The study analysed demographic data, mechanism of injury, severity, ICU admissions, and mortality rates using multivariate logistic regression models.

Results: Out of 950 paediatric trauma cases analysed, there was an 44.2 [561/389 = 1.442] % increase in the number of cases post-lockdown. A significant shift was noted in the age group of 5-9 years, with cases increasing from post-lockdown. Head injuries were the most prevalent type of injury, with their proportion slightly increasing from 163 (20.5%) pre-lockdown to 248 (23.2%) post-lockdown. The ICU admission were consistent across both periods, while the definitive care mode of arrival post-lockdown showed a notable shift towards private or government ambulances.

Conclusion: Our study provides critical insights into the significant impact of the COVID-19 on paediatric road trauma. The observed increase in trauma cases post-pandemic, particularly among younger children and a notable rise in driver-related injuries among adolescents, underscores the profound effect of lockdown measures and subsequent societal changes on paediatric health. Efforts to reduce paediatric traffic injuries require collaboration among parents, educators, healthcare professionals, policymakers, and the community at large.