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Assessment of a critical mineral recycling network: A case study on nickel recovery from production waste in Korean eco-industrial parks 关键矿物回收网络的评估:韩国生态工业园区生产废弃物中镍回收的案例研究
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70026
Seok Jung, Sangjoon An, Jooyoung Park, Hung-Suck Park, Xiaotao Bi

The shift in industrial paradigms toward achieving global carbon neutrality and strengthening national material security may initially appear unrelated; however, both domains share a crucial intermediary: critical minerals. Despite global initiatives aimed at securing critical minerals through established supply chains, persistent challenges have arisen owing to resource depletion, geopolitical instability, and intricate international dynamics. Eco-industrial parks (EIPs) are instrumental in mitigating these challenges by facilitating the recycling of resources embedded within waste and by-products. This strategy is essential to minimize resource consumption and foster resilient domestic supply chains, particularly in resource-scarce nations. This study evaluates the recovery potential of nickel, a critical material for green technologies, within a closed-loop system utilizing an industrial symbiosis development framework with public and open-source data of industry. This approach enhances supply- and demand-matching schemes within industrial symbiosis networks, specifically focusing on nickel recovery technologies within the Korean EIP project. The findings revealed that these networks within industrial complexes encompassed 86% of the manufacturing industry, thus establishing a cohesive framework for the development of a nickel integration network. Notably, among the 190 companies across 74 industrial complexes, 135 of the 27 designated EIPs participated in the recycling network. This indicates that EIPs could serve as a viable alternative for resource recovery to secure critical minerals. The implementation of such networks in concentrated industrial complexes with diverse manufacturing sectors is expected to significantly enhance critical mineral self-sufficiency in high-demand countries.

工业模式向实现全球碳中和和加强国家物质安全的转变最初可能看起来无关;然而,这两个领域都有一个重要的中介:关键矿物。尽管全球倡议旨在通过建立供应链确保关键矿产,但由于资源枯竭、地缘政治不稳定和错综复杂的国际动态,持续的挑战已经出现。生态工业园区(eip)通过促进废物和副产品中资源的回收利用,有助于缓解这些挑战。这一战略对于最大限度地减少资源消耗和培育具有弹性的国内供应链至关重要,特别是在资源匮乏的国家。本研究利用工业共生发展框架与公共和开源工业数据,在闭环系统中评估镍的回收潜力,镍是绿色技术的关键材料。这种方法加强了工业共生网络中的供需匹配方案,特别关注韩国EIP项目中的镍回收技术。研究结果显示,这些工业园区内的网络涵盖了86%的制造业,从而为镍整合网络的发展建立了一个有凝聚力的框架。值得注意的是,在74个工业园区的190家企业中,27家指定的环保企业中有135家参与了回收网络。这表明eip可以作为资源回收的可行替代办法,以确保关键矿物的安全。在具有不同制造部门的集中工业综合体中实施这种网络,预期将大大提高高需求国家关键矿物的自给自足。
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引用次数: 0
Trade, extended use, and end of life in the Global South: A regionally expanded electric vehicle life cycle assessment 全球南方的贸易、延长使用和寿命终结:一项区域扩展的电动汽车生命周期评估
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70041
Francisco Parés Olguín, Galym Iskakov, Alissa Kendall

The environmental impacts of exporting second-hand electric vehicles (SH EVs) to lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly relevant as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises in high-income countries. This study uses a regionally expanded life cycle assessment model to evaluate the lifecycle environmental performance of SH EV exports, their net benefits to LMICs, and their role in the global transition to electric mobility. The model integrates expert elicitation to capture informal practices in vehicle repair, dismantling, and recycling in LMICs, focusing on the US–Mexico second-hand vehicle trade relationship. Key findings reveal that export timing significantly influences life cycle performance, particularly regarding battery degradation, replacement, and recycling. Compared to retention in the United States, exporting an SH EV under average use conditions increases global warming potential (GWP) by 16%, non-carcinogenic human toxicity potential (HTP-NC) by 74%, and terrestrial ecotoxicity potential (TEP) by 16%. In contrast, while established second-hand internal combustion engine vehicle exports have historically shifted environmental burdens to LMICs—increasing Mexico's operational emissions by 107% relative to its average vehicle—SH EVs reduce operational emissions by 82% (GWP), 96% (HTP-NC), and 97% (TEP), particularly as electricity grids decarbonize. Despite these advantages, limited end-of-life battery management systems in LMICs raise concerns about toxicity risks. The study underscores the need for cross-border cooperation to establish common regulatory frameworks and develop recycling capacity in LMICs, preventing environmental burden shifting and advancing critical mineral circularity. These insights provide policymakers a foundation to ensure SH EV trade supports a just, sustainable transition to electric mobility.

随着电动汽车(EV)在高收入国家的普及,向中低收入国家(LMICs)出口二手电动汽车(SH EV)对环境的影响越来越重要。本研究使用区域扩展的生命周期评估模型来评估小型电动汽车出口的生命周期环境绩效、它们对中低收入国家的净效益,以及它们在全球向电动交通转型中的作用。该模型整合了专家的启发,以捕捉中低收入国家汽车维修、拆解和回收方面的非正式做法,重点关注美墨二手车贸易关系。主要研究结果表明,出口时机显著影响生命周期性能,特别是在电池退化、更换和回收方面。与美国相比,在平均使用条件下,出口一辆轻型电动汽车将使全球变暖潜势(GWP)增加16%,非致癌人类毒性潜势(HTP-NC)增加74%,陆地生态毒性潜势(TEP)增加16%。相比之下,虽然二手内燃机汽车出口历来将环境负担转嫁给了中低收入国家,使墨西哥的运营排放量相对于其平均水平增加了107%,但小型电动汽车的运营排放量减少了82% (GWP)、96% (HTP-NC)和97% (TEP),特别是在电网脱碳的情况下。尽管有这些优势,但中低收入国家有限的电池报废管理系统引起了人们对毒性风险的担忧。该研究强调需要跨界合作,在中低收入国家建立共同的监管框架和发展回收能力,防止环境负担转移和促进关键矿物循环。这些见解为政策制定者提供了一个基础,以确保小型电动汽车贸易支持向电动交通的公正、可持续过渡。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental assessment of potential industrial waste management in the Czech Republic 捷克共和国潜在工业废物管理的环境评估
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70043
Aleš Paulu, Valentina Bisinella, Vladimír Kočí

In contrast to municipal waste, the much larger quantities of industrial waste are less frequently addressed, both in legislation and in life cycle assessment (LCA). However, LCA studies can identify opportunities to reduce national environmental impacts by improving the management of industrial waste, and they can inform legislation that brings us closer to a net-zero, circular economy. This study analyzes the impact mitigation potential of 10 industrial waste categories in a case study of the Czech Republic. By adopting consequential, fraction-specific LCA modeling of current waste management practices, we clarified their hierarchy and quantified maximum transport distances from the environmental perspective. We further linked the environmental impacts with material flow analysis of these waste categories in the Czech Republic and compared the current situation with a potential scenario based on legislation targets and the maximum demand for recycled materials. The results indicate a potential to mitigate approximately 2.3% of the current environmental impacts for the Czech Republic and reduce primary energy resource consumption by about 1.7%. The highest potential was attributed to ferrous metal waste, where an increased recycling rate could additionally substitute up to 942 kt of primary steel, resulting in substantial environmental savings. The second highest potential was reported for coal combustion fly ash utilized in concrete production. The findings indicate that these materials, which are currently underemphasized in public policies, deserve greater attention.

与城市废物相比,在立法和生命周期评估(LCA)中较少处理数量大得多的工业废物。然而,LCA研究可以发现通过改善工业废物管理来减少国家环境影响的机会,它们可以为立法提供信息,使我们更接近净零的循环经济。本研究以捷克共和国为例,分析了10种工业废物类别的影响缓解潜力。通过对当前废物管理实践采用相应的、特定部分的LCA模型,我们明确了它们的层次结构,并从环境的角度量化了最大运输距离。我们进一步将环境影响与捷克共和国这些废物类别的物质流分析联系起来,并将当前情况与基于立法目标和对回收材料的最大需求的潜在情景进行了比较。结果表明,有可能减轻捷克共和国目前约2.3%的环境影响,并减少约1.7%的一次能源消耗。潜力最大的是黑色金属废物,其回收率的提高可额外替代高达942吨的原钢,从而大大节省了环境。据报道,煤炭燃烧粉煤灰在混凝土生产中的利用潜力第二高。调查结果表明,这些目前在公共政策中没有得到充分重视的材料值得更多的注意。
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引用次数: 0
The spatiotemporal dynamics of regional resilience in China from 2000 to 2022 2000 - 2022年中国区域弹性时空动态分析
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70039
Lingna Liu, Xiaoqian Dong, Tongrong Fu

Regional resilience is important for addressing the complex challenges faced by regions in the current era of globalization, climate change, and rapid technological transformation. The study of regional resilience provides critical insights into sustainable development and long-term prosperity. This study presents a framework for evaluating the spatiotemporal evolution of regional resilience by integrating multidimensional indicators and spatial analysis techniques. The resilience in regions of China from 2000 to 2022 was measured, and temporal and spatial evolution characteristics were explored via econometric models. The results revealed significant variation in resilience across provinces, with both temporal and spatial heterogeneity observed. According to the evaluation from 31 provinces, resilience did not develop in isolation on a unified path. Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai exhibit high levels of resilience and are located in economically developed areas. Changes in resilience to varying degrees were observed at the regional level, with Central South China, Northwest China, and Central China in the first tier, North China and Northeast China in the second tier, and Southwest China in the third tier. Most provinces with high resilience and high concentration are located in the southeastern coastal region, whereas most low-low-agglomeration cities are located in the northwestern region. The spatiotemporal evolution of provincial resilience reflects the complementarity and differences in development between regions. This study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and increasing resilience in different regions. The insights provided by this study offer practical guidance for policymakers and planners seeking to promote sustainable development.

在当前全球化、气候变化和快速技术转型的时代,区域复原力对于应对区域面临的复杂挑战至关重要。对区域恢复力的研究为可持续发展和长期繁荣提供了重要见解。本研究提出了一个综合多维指标和空间分析技术的区域弹性时空演化评价框架。对2000 - 2022年中国各区域弹性进行了测度,并通过计量模型探讨了弹性的时空演变特征。结果显示,不同省份的恢复力存在显著差异,且存在时空异质性。根据31个省份的评估,恢复力并不是在一个统一的道路上孤立发展的。北京、广东和上海均位于经济发达地区,具有较高的韧性。在区域层面上,弹性发生了不同程度的变化,其中华南中部、西北和中部为第一梯队,华北和东北为第二梯队,西南为第三梯队。高弹性、高集中度省份多位于东南沿海地区,低-低集聚城市多位于西北地区。省际弹性的时空演变反映了区域间发展的互补性和差异性。本研究为理解和提高不同地区的恢复力提供了一个全面的框架。本研究提供的见解为寻求促进可持续发展的政策制定者和规划者提供了实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
Using lightweight airframe materials in aircraft structures and investigating potential reinforcement effects with sustainable aviation fuels: An analysis of environmental and economic impacts 在飞机结构中使用轻型机身材料并研究可持续航空燃料的潜在加固效果:环境和经济影响分析
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70040
Anna J. G. Hellmann, Alexander Barke, Wolfgang Heinze, Sebastian Heimbs, Thomas S. Spengler

Using lightweight materials in aircraft structures, especially carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), can be an option for achieving aviation's ambitious emission reduction goals. However, using CFRP can be associated with adverse environmental and economic impacts, which can relativize its potential benefits. Nevertheless, the extent of the potential advantages and disadvantages of the increased use of CFRP in the entire airframe is still uncertain, as existing studies relate to specific airframe components or estimated weight savings. This article aims to close this gap by developing detailed life cycle inventories (LCIs) for aircraft with CFRP structures and analyzing the environmental and economic impacts during aircraft production and use. Furthermore, potential reinforcement effects from using sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) in such aircraft are investigated to determine the overall environmental and economic impacts. For this purpose, three aircraft configurations with different CFRP content are modeled using the aircraft design program “Preliminary Aircraft Design and Optimization”. Afterward, detailed LCIs are developed, and life cycle assessment and environmental life cycle costing are applied. Subsequently, an analysis is conducted where SAFs replace fossil kerosene to investigate the potential for further reductions of environmental and economic impacts. The results of the analysis indicate that increasing the CFRP content in the airframe reduces environmental impacts during production and use. Despite higher production costs, more cost-effective flight operations are possible. Additionally, there is a reinforcement effect through using SAFs in aircraft with increased CFRP content, which can further reduce climate-damaging emissions by several magnitudes more compared to lightweight materials alone.

在飞机结构中使用轻质材料,特别是碳纤维增强聚合物(CFRP),可以成为实现航空业雄心勃勃的减排目标的一种选择。然而,使用CFRP可能会带来不利的环境和经济影响,这可能会使其潜在效益相对化。然而,在整个机身中增加使用碳纤维增强塑料的潜在利弊程度仍然不确定,因为现有的研究涉及具体的机身部件或估计的重量节省。本文旨在通过开发CFRP结构飞机的详细生命周期清单(lci)并分析飞机生产和使用过程中的环境和经济影响来缩小这一差距。此外,研究人员还调查了在此类飞机上使用可持续航空燃料(SAFs)的潜在加固效应,以确定总体环境和经济影响。为此,使用飞机设计程序“飞机初步设计与优化”对CFRP含量不同的三种飞机构型进行建模。然后,制定详细的生命周期指标,并应用生命周期评价和环境生命周期成本法。随后,对燃料燃料取代化石煤油的情况进行了分析,以调查进一步减少环境和经济影响的潜力。分析结果表明,增加CFRP在机体中的含量可以减少生产和使用过程中对环境的影响。尽管生产成本较高,但更具有成本效益的飞行操作是可能的。此外,在CFRP含量增加的飞机上使用saf具有增强效果,与单独使用轻质材料相比,这可以进一步减少对气候有害的排放。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model” 对“增长极限的重新校准:World3模型的更新”的更正
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70042

Nebel, A., Kling, A., Willamowski, R., & Schell, T. (2023). Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 28, 87–99.

The last paragraph of the abstract reads: “The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban-industrial land development time.” The default parameter of alic1 was inserted incorrectly in the evaluation of the simulation results. The text should have read:

“The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to pollution transmission delay and urban-industrial land development time.”

In the fifth paragraph of the section “Recalibration23” the text “The parameter average lifetime of industrial capital 1” (alic1) has the highest relative change. The improved value is more than six times the default value. The value changes from 2 year to 15.24 years. The second highest relative change has the persistent pollution transmission delay (pptd). “This parameter increases from 20 years to 111.8 years.” is incorrect, due to an error in evaluation of the simulation results. The default parameter of alic1 was inserted incorrectly in the evaluation. The text should have read: “The parameter persistent pollution transmission delay” (pptd) has the largest relative change. The improved value is almost five times the default value. The value changes from 20 years to 116.38 years. The second highest relative change occurs in the urban-industrial land development time (uildt). “This parameter decreases from 10 years to 0.53 years.”

In addition, table two “Parameters with improved and default values and relative change of Recalibration23” the default value of the parameter “alic1” (average lifetime of industrial capital 1) was 2. It should be 14. The relative change [%] was 662.1. It should be 8.86. Since the table is sorted by the relative change, the first entry was the alic1 parameter. It should have been between the “imef” (industrial material toxic index) and “pl” (processing loss) parameters.

This is the current table 2:

The table should be:

We apologize for this error.

Nebel, A., Kling, A., Willamowski, R., &;谢尔,T.(2023)。增长极限的重新校准:World3模型的更新。工业生态学报,28,87-99。摘要的最后一段写道:“相对变化最大的参数是工业资本寿命、污染传递延迟和城市-工业用地开发时间。”模拟结果评估时,默认参数alic1插入错误。处理步骤原文应该是:“相对变化最大的参数是与污染传递延迟和城市工业用地开发时间有关的参数。”在“Recalibration23”一节的第5段,“the parameter average lifetime of industrial capital 1”(alic1)的相对变化幅度最大。改进后的值是默认值的6倍以上。取值范围是2 ~ 15.24年。相对变化第二高的是持续污染传输延迟(pptd)。该参数从20年增加到111.8年。是不正确的,因为在模拟结果的评估中出现了错误。在计算中错误插入默认参数alic1。处理步骤文本应该是:“参数持续污染传输延迟”(pptd)的相对变化最大。改进后的值几乎是默认值的5倍。取值范围是20年~ 116.38年。城市工业用地开发时间(ildt)的相对变化幅度次之。“该参数从10年减少到0.53年。”此外,表二“Recalibration23的改进值和默认值及相对变化参数”中,参数“alic1”(工业资本1的平均寿命)的默认值为2。应该是14。相对变化[%]为662.1。应该是8.86。由于表是按相对变化排序的,所以第一个条目是alic1参数。它应该介于“imef”(工业材料毒性指数)和“pl”(加工损失)参数之间。这是当前的表格2:表格应该是:我们为这个错误道歉。
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引用次数: 0
The future of cement: Technological innovation in representative concentration pathways 水泥的未来:具有代表性的集中路径中的技术创新
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70007
Ben Maes, Amaryllis Audenaert, Bart Craeye, Matthias Buyle

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the cement industry's future trends while ensuring scenario consistency on a global and economy-wide scale. However, IAMs often have a low technological resolution, omitting a wide range of abatement options currently under development for the cement industry, only focusing on potential improvements to energy efficiency of the kiln and the adoption of a single, often unspecified, carbon capture and storage technology. This study investigates how the inclusion of these technologies would impact the cement producers' investment decisions and contribute to emission reductions. An econometric model that is soft-linked with an IAM is used to integrate the abatement options in the scenarios while ensuring consistency with the underlying assumptions is maintained. For clinker production, this study evaluates full and partial carbon capture technologies, as well as novel heating options, applicable to new kilns or as retrofits. For cement production, the study determined investments in limestone calcined clay cement, a novel ternary cement blend. The model is applied to the EU, United States, and Canada for the SSP2-baseline and RCP2.6 and RCP1.9 scenarios. Results indicate that investors are likely to invest in a wide range of the omitted abatement options. Key factors influencing investment decisions are energy prices, carbon tax, and alternative fuel supply. Finally, a prospective consequential life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the environmental impact of these investment strategies. The impact assessment showed substantial reductions in global warming potential across all scenarios, with reductions of up to sevenfold the original value. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

综合评估模型(iam)为水泥行业的未来趋势提供了有价值的见解,同时确保了全球和整个经济范围内的情景一致性。然而,iam通常具有较低的技术分辨率,忽略了目前正在为水泥工业开发的各种减排选择,只关注窑炉能源效率的潜在改进以及采用单一的(通常未指定的)碳捕获和储存技术。本研究探讨了这些技术如何影响水泥生产商的投资决策,并有助于减排。使用与IAM软链接的计量经济模型来集成场景中的减排选项,同时确保与基本假设保持一致。对于熟料生产,本研究评估了全部和部分碳捕获技术,以及适用于新窑或改造的新型加热选择。对于水泥生产,该研究确定了石灰石煅烧粘土水泥的投资,这是一种新型三元水泥混合物。该模型应用于欧盟、美国和加拿大的ssp2基线和RCP2.6和RCP1.9场景。结果表明,投资者可能会投资于广泛的遗漏的减排方案。影响投资决策的关键因素是能源价格、碳税和替代燃料供应。最后,进行了前瞻性后果生命周期评估,以确定这些投资策略的环境影响。影响评估显示,在所有情景下,全球变暖潜势都大幅减少,减少幅度高达原始值的7倍。本文符合http://jie.click/badges上描述的金牌JIE数据开放徽章的要求。
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引用次数: 0
Material and energy use in Norway's residential building archetypes 挪威住宅建筑原型的材料和能源使用
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70033
Sara Amini, Lola S. A. Rousseau, Edgar G. Hertwich

Buildings require substantial amounts of resources, as both construction materials and operational energy. In Norway, as buildings become more energy efficient due to advancements in construction, technology, and stricter regulations, the relative impact of construction and maintenance materials rises. However, there is a lack of comprehensive data on construction and material use, and consequently, their embodied emissions. While some studies explored the environmental impacts of Norwegian buildings, they often either focus on case-study buildings or only the operational emissions, due to limited data on embodied emissions; others rely on inconsistent statistical correlations between energy use and material composition. Bottom-up physics-based building archetypes offer a solution to fill this gap by providing structured data on energy use and material composition. This paper, therefore, introduces 21 archetypes of Norwegian residential buildings, categorized into three typologies and seven construction cohorts. Dynamic energy simulations were conducted, using DesignBuilder, for estimating space heating consumption, combined with the BuildME Python package for material estimation and aggregation. We found that load-bearing components drive building's material intensity, especially in wooden buildings with basements. Post-1991 multi-family houses (MFHs) have lower material intensity than single-family houses (SFHs) and apartment blocks (ABs), though ABs outperform them by lower space heating demand. Substitution of concrete slabs by wood and increasing occupancy to MFH's level can reduce the material intensity of ABs and SFHs, respectively. By establishing integrated energy and material demand models, archetypes provide a representative and scalable basis for further assessment of building stock's resource use, renovation impacts, and environmental studies.

建筑物需要大量的资源,如建筑材料和运行能源。在挪威,由于建筑、技术和更严格的法规的进步,建筑变得更加节能,建筑和维护材料的相对影响也在上升。然而,缺乏关于建筑和材料使用的全面数据,因此也缺乏它们的实际排放量。虽然一些研究探讨了挪威建筑对环境的影响,但由于具体排放的数据有限,它们通常要么关注案例研究建筑,要么只关注运营排放;另一些则依赖于能源使用和材料组成之间不一致的统计相关性。自下而上的基于物理的建筑原型提供了一种解决方案,通过提供关于能源使用和材料组成的结构化数据来填补这一空白。因此,本文介绍了挪威住宅建筑的21个原型,分为三种类型和七个施工队列。使用DesignBuilder进行动态能量模拟,以估计空间供暖消耗,并结合BuildME Python包进行材料估计和汇总。我们发现承重构件驱动建筑的材料强度,特别是在有地下室的木制建筑中。1991年后的多户住宅(MFHs)的材料强度低于单户住宅(SFHs)和公寓楼(ABs),尽管ABs在空间采暖需求方面优于它们。用木材替代混凝土板和将占用率提高到MFH水平可以分别降低ABs和SFHs的材料强度。通过建立综合的能源和材料需求模型,原型为进一步评估建筑存量的资源利用、改造影响和环境研究提供了一个具有代表性和可扩展的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Can global modern slavery be footprinted for corporate due diligence? A data review and analysis 全球现代奴隶制能否成为企业尽职调查的足迹?数据审查和分析
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70037
Vivienne Reiner, Arunima Malik, Joy Murray

Modern slavery laws are increasingly being adopted by countries, requiring companies to demonstrate human rights due diligence. Attempts at quantifying modern slavery across the world have played a crucial role in awareness raising, and locally rich data have been used to provide insights into supply chains for specific sectors and regions but is there a tool that businesses can use wherever they are? We investigate the possibility of developing a universal, global modern-slavery satellite account for footprinting and as a first step, carry out a comprehensive review of global modern slavery data, estimates, and potential proxies. In addition to data on confirmed cases being unrepresentative of the likely population, estimates risk high sampling errors and low reproducibility. We also analyze data that might be used as “slavery-like” indicators; however, none could be recommended. Such attempts at footprinting modern-day slavery are fraught because the identified supply-chain hotspots resulting from direct expenditure are based on these modern-slavery datasets that are not fit for such a purpose. Modern-slavery footprints may be misleading because the complexities and limitations of the data are not well-represented in a simple indicator, the underlying data are highly uncertain, and the results simply tend to reflect poverty. Although our research highlights that there is no simple way to produce reliable estimates of global modern slavery in supply chains, continued work to build up modern-slavery data worldwide should support critical, hybrid input–output lifecycle assessment studies, adding to the web of information globally to support ethical decision-making.

各国正越来越多地采用现代奴隶制法,要求企业在人权方面表现出应有的努力。量化世界各地现代奴隶制的尝试在提高认识方面发挥了至关重要的作用,当地丰富的数据已被用来洞察特定行业和地区的供应链,但是否有一种工具可供企业在任何地方使用?我们研究了开发一个通用的全球现代奴隶制足迹卫星账户的可能性,并作为第一步,对全球现代奴隶制数据、估计和潜在代理进行全面审查。除了确诊病例的数据不具有可能人群的代表性外,估计还存在高抽样误差和低可重复性的风险。我们还分析了可能被用作“类似奴隶制”指标的数据;然而,这些都不值得推荐。这种试图追踪现代奴隶制的尝试令人担忧,因为直接支出所产生的已确定的供应链热点是基于这些现代奴隶制数据集的,而这些数据集并不适合这样的目的。现代奴隶制的足迹可能具有误导性,因为数据的复杂性和局限性无法在一个简单的指标中得到很好的体现,基础数据高度不确定,而且结果往往只是反映了贫困。尽管我们的研究强调,没有简单的方法来对供应链中的全球现代奴隶制进行可靠的估计,但继续在全球范围内建立现代奴隶制数据的工作应该支持关键的、混合的投入产出生命周期评估研究,增加全球信息网络,以支持道德决策。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian model selection for network discrimination and risk-informed decision-making in material flow analysis 物流分析中网络判别与风险决策的贝叶斯模型选择
IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1111/jiec.70034
Jiankan Liao, Sidi Deng, Xun Huan, Daniel Cooper

Material flow analyses (MFAs) provide insight into supply chain-level opportunities for resource efficiency. MFAs can be represented as networks with nodes that represent materials, processes, sectors, or locations. MFA network structure uncertainty (i.e., the existence or absence of flows between nodes) is pervasive and can undermine the reliability of the flow predictions. This article investigates MFA network structure uncertainty by proposing candidate node-and-flow structures and using Bayesian model selection to identify the most suitable structures and Bayesian model averaging to quantify the parametric mass flow uncertainty. The results of this holistic approach to MFA uncertainty are used in conjunction with the input-output (I/O) method to make risk-informed resource efficiency recommendations. These techniques are demonstrated using a case study on the US steel sector where 16 candidate structures are considered. The model selection highlights two networks as most probable based on data collected from the United States Geological Survey and the World Steel Association. Using the I/O method, we then show that the construction sector accounts for the greatest mean share of domestic US steel industry emissions while the automotive and steel products sectors have the highest mean emissions per unit of steel used in the end-use sectors. The uncertainty in the results is used to analyze which end-use sector should be the focus of demand reduction efforts under different appetites for risk. This article's methods generate holistic and transparent MFA uncertainty that accounts for structural uncertainty, enabling decisions whose outcomes are more robust to the uncertainty.

物料流分析(MFAs)为资源效率提供了对供应链层面机会的洞察。mfa可以表示为带有表示材料、过程、部门或位置的节点的网络。MFA网络结构的不确定性(即节点之间存在或不存在流量)是普遍存在的,并且会破坏流量预测的可靠性。本文研究了MFA网络结构的不确定性,提出了候选节点流结构,并使用贝叶斯模型选择来识别最合适的结构,使用贝叶斯模型平均来量化参数质量流的不确定性。这种对MFA不确定性的整体方法的结果与投入产出(I/O)方法结合使用,以提出风险知情的资源效率建议。这些技术通过对美国钢铁行业的案例研究进行了演示,其中考虑了16种候选结构。根据从美国地质调查局和世界钢铁协会收集的数据,模型选择突出了两个最有可能的网络。然后,我们使用I/O方法表明,建筑部门占美国国内钢铁工业排放的平均份额最大,而汽车和钢铁产品部门在最终用途部门使用的每单位钢铁的平均排放量最高。结果的不确定性用于分析在不同的风险偏好下,哪个最终用途部门应该成为减少需求努力的重点。本文的方法产生了整体和透明的MFA不确定性,说明了结构不确定性,使决策的结果对不确定性更加稳健。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Industrial Ecology
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