Journal of Industrial Ecology最新文献

Despite the need for methodologies that support early-phase decision-making in the transition to a circular economy, current sustainability assessments often lack a prospective method that dynamically accounts for consumer decision-making based on empirical evidence. This study addresses this need by evaluating the circularity and environmental impacts of circular business models over a 30-year period, using an empirically grounded agent-based model coupled with life cycle assessment and material flow analysis. We developed a methodology to parameterize agents’ decision-making using data from demographically representative surveys and to prospectively assess the sustainability impacts of circular strategies. The case study examines the reuse, refurbishment, and subscription models of refrigerators and laptops in Japan. Results from Morris Elementary effects method and scenario analyses revealed that manufacturer-led refurbishment could reduce emissions of the whole society by 10%–12% and extend product lifetimes by 30%–33%. In contrast, the subscription model shows minimal benefits, with improvements of only 0%–3%, primarily due to consumer preferences for new products. Our consequential approach extends beyond technical strategies to evaluate the effectiveness of strategies targeting consumer behavior, including pricing, advertisements, and improvements in repair and collection services. The findings highlight the need for combining synergistic circular and diffusion strategies and suggest the need for a reorientation of policy efforts from end-of-life material recovery to refurbishment, reuse, and repair, supported by intensive campaigns and substantial price reductions in circular offerings. The methodology presented here facilitates prospective, dynamic, and consequential assessments of circular economy strategies to enhance consumer acceptance and ensure sustainability gains.

Industrial ecosystems are coupled with natural systems, which causes the material flow dynamics in the network to be affected by the mechanistic dynamics of each node. However, current material flow dynamics studies do not capture these mechanistic and nonlinear dynamics to evaluate material flows in networks, thus missing its role in designing resilient industrial ecosystems. In this work, we present a methodology to overcome this limitation and model material flow dynamics in a coupled natural-industrial network by accounting for underlying nonlinear dynamics at each node. We propose a three-step methodology: first, creating accurate surrogate models using liquid time-constant (LTC) neural networks to capture node-specific behavior; second, coupling these individual node models to simulate material flow dynamics in the network; and third, evaluating resilience by measuring the system's ability to maintain production levels under climate stress. Applied to a soybean-based biodiesel production network in Champaign County, Illinois (2006–2096), our analysis reveals significant vulnerability differences between climate scenarios, with the RCP 8.5 scenario triggering production failures approximately 10 years earlier than RCP 4.5 (2016 vs. 2026), exhibiting higher failure frequency and requiring longer recovery periods. Smaller farms (450 ha) demonstrated substantially higher import dependency, while medium farms (500 ha) reached a critical bifurcation point around 2050 under RCP 8.5, indicating a systemic tipping point. These findings provide insights for policymakers and industrial managers to implement targeted interventions, supply chain diversification, and adaptive management strategies, thereby enhancing system resilience while offering industrial ecology practitioners a methodology for modeling material flow dynamics in a coupled natural-industrial network.

This paper investigates and compares transformation pathways to decarbonize the passenger car fleets of Germany, Poland, and Norway, considering the unique market characteristics of these countries. We develop a dynamic stock and flow model to simulate the evolution of the passenger car fleet in conjunction with the energy sector at a country level and calculate tailpipe and life cycle-oriented greenhouse gas emissions. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we analyze country-specific levers to meet tailpipe emissions targets and their impact on life cycle emissions and the energy system. The results reveal that meeting the European tailpipe emission targets is challenging for Germany and Poland, and much easier for Norway. The main drivers are the level and speed of deployment of electric vehicles and renewable electricity, as well as the rate of the fleet renewal. For countries with a high share of conventional vehicles, synthetic fuels could be promising, but with a significant impact on the energy system. Moreover, an exclusive focus on tailpipe emissions does not imply low life cycle emissions and could even lead to burden shifting. Hence, our results further support the idea that mitigation measures need to be orchestrated and harmonized with country-specific characteristics in order to reduce tailpipe and life cycle emissions as much as possible.

A steadily increasing plastic production requires the treatment of ever greater amounts of plastic waste. Plastic waste that is unsuitable for mechanical recycling is incinerated in Europe, generating large amounts of CO₂. Chemical recycling of such plastic waste offers an alternative to reduce the climate change impact (CCI) of plastic waste treatment and contributes toward closing the plastic loop. This paper presents a strategic location optimization model designed to effectively integrate chemical recycling facilities into existing waste treatment networks. The model optimizes material flows for both operational costs and CCI and is extended by using a goal programming approach to balance both objectives. The study focuses on two significant waste streams: (1) lightweight packaging, which in Germany accounts for 59% of post-consumer plastic waste, with 34% of it being unsuitable for mechanical recycling, and (2) automotive plastic waste, which as engineering plastics from the automotive sector presents a challenge for recycling due to its complex composition. Moreover, the study explores scenarios to evaluate political instruments and quantifies their impacts on the German plastic waste treatment network. It quantifies the impact of an increase of a legal national recycling rate and the extension of emission trading systems to the German waste sector as it was implemented in early 2024. Raising the recycling rate to 65% or introducing a CO₂ emission fee of 45€/t CO₂ could reduce the waste treatment network's CCI by up to 64% while increasing the circularity and decarbonization of plastics.

Integrated energy systems have been regarded as the crucial technical route for the energy system low-carbon transition to mitigate climate change. However, the integration of multi-energy systems is highly complex, introducing new risks and challenges to the secure operation of the system, especially in the current digital era. To address this issue, this paper proposed the multi-dimension risk diffusion assessment model to unveil the risk diffusion mechanism. First, this paper divided the heterogeneous risk systems into economic, social, natural, and digital risk subsystems. Second, the system dynamics model is adopted to simulate the heterogeneous risk diffusion. Third, the proposed risk diffusion model is verified with the integrated wind–solar–thermal-storage power generation park of China. The results show that the integration and adoption of digital technologies in integrated energy systems can significantly mitigate the output risks of renewable energy systems, such as wind and solar, caused by extreme weather events, thereby maintaining operational stability. This paper provides new insights into risk management in smart integrated energy systems, offering practical value for evaluating and controlling risks during integrated energy system planning and construction.

The evolving global landscape of packaging regulations, driven by heightened public concern over single-use packaging and plastic waste, signals a significant shift toward circular economy principles. These regulatory changes, including the United Nations Environmental Programme's endorsement of a legally binding international agreement on plastic waste management, are expected to have far-reaching impacts on product safety, packaging design, and global trade. The newly adopted and emerging policies prioritize waste reduction, reuse, recycling, and the integration of recycled materials. However, the rapid introduction of environmentally driven packaging regulations—especially those targeting sensitive sectors like food and cosmetics—presents potential risks for product/packaging safety and food waste, alongside challenges for trade harmonization across regions with divergent regulatory goals. This forum article reviews key regulatory frameworks from Asia, Europe, and the Americas, detailing material bans, reuse and refill targets, recycling mandates, and extended producer responsibility initiatives. It examines the potential impact of these regulations on global trade dynamics and their implications for universally accepted safety standards. Despite the well-meaning intent behind these laws, gaps in understanding the protective role of packaging and its broader environmental impact may lead to misconceptions in developing sustainable product-packaging systems. Current policies primarily target waste reduction, but an integrated approach is needed – one that considers how packaging extends food shelf life, lowers resource use, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Consumer education and transparent communication from regulators and industry will guide informed, sustainable choices, ultimately supporting a more transparent shift toward a circular economy.

Plastic pollution has become a critical environmental and socioeconomic challenge globally, particularly in developing regions with deficient waste management infrastructure. The rapid growth of Côte d'Ivoire's plastic industry, which employs around 200,000 people and contributes over 2% to gross domestic product, has led to a massive increase in plastic consumption and marine litter over the past decade. This study develops an environmentally extended input–output (EE-IO) model based on an original social accounting matrix combined with a structural path analysis (SPA) to assess the annual domestic plastic footprint in Côte d'Ivoire, estimated at 19 kg per capita but standing on a steadily growing trend. This first quantification identifies several key sectors (machinery and equipment, transport, furniture, paper and printing, food industry) contributing significantly to the domestic plastic consumption and waste. Some narrow linkages between the local plastic converters and the agricultural cashew nut sector are also emphasized. On the basis of SPA outcomes, various targeted policy recommendations are suggested and their effects are tested with the EE-IO model, showing the greater effectiveness of trade quotas over a tax policy directed to the key sectors.

The circular economy (CE) is a promising paradigm for reducing the environmental impact and preserving value within modern production systems, including civil infrastructure. However, there is a mismatch between common assumptions in CE thinking, largely developed for smaller-scale consumer products, and infrastructure systems characterized by their permanency and complexity. This paper discusses the applicability of CE for infrastructure provisioning and operation while examining how CE is being used in urban infrastructure policies. Our analysis of six large American and European cities reveals that current CE policy for construction focuses on closing material loops, even in cases where it may have limited effectiveness. Notably, London and Amsterdam lead efforts to narrow resource loops through life extension strategies. Yet, for urban infrastructure value to be meaningfully preserved, more attention should be given to the specific contexts of growth and existing infrastructure stock, and higher-order circularity strategies such as retrofitting and use intensification.