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Predicting Simultaneous Severe Recessions Using Yield Spreads as Leading Indicators 利用收益率差作为领先指标预测同时发生的严重衰退
Pub Date : 2011-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1855937
C. Christiansen
Severe simultaneous recessions are defined to occur when at least half of the countries under investigation (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) are in recession simultaneously. I pose two new research questions that extend upon stylized facts for US recessions. One, are the occurrences of simultaneous recessions predictable? Two, does the yield spread predict future occurrences of simultaneous recessions? I use the indicator for severe simultaneous recessions as the explained variable in probit models. The lagged yield spread is an important explanatory variable, where decreasing yield spreads are a leading indicator for severe simultaneous recessions. Both US and German yield spreads act as leading indicator for severe simultaneous recessions.
严重同时衰退的定义是,当至少一半的被调查国家(澳大利亚、加拿大、德国、日本、英国和美国)同时陷入衰退时发生。我提出了两个新的研究问题,以美国衰退的程式化事实为基础。第一,同时发生的衰退是可以预测的吗?第二,收益率差能否预测未来同时发生的衰退?我使用严重同时衰退的指标作为probit模型中的被解释变量。滞后收益率差是一个重要的解释变量,收益率差的缩小是同时发生严重衰退的先行指标。美国和德国的收益率差都是同时出现严重衰退的领先指标。
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引用次数: 0
Urban Voters, Racial Attitudes, and Neighborhood Context: A Multilevel Analysis of the 2005 Los Angeles Mayoral Election 城市选民、种族态度和社区背景:2005年洛杉矶市长选举的多层次分析
Pub Date : 2011-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1810466
Jason A. McDaniel
How does neighborhood context affect the relationship between individual racial identity, racial attitudes, and vote choice in an urban mayoral election? Although there have been many studies about racial context, racial attitudes and political behavior, for a variety of reasons, including methodological complexities and lack of quality contextual exit poll data, few studies have focused on vote choice in an urban election. Using exit poll data from the 2005 Los Angeles election, multilevel logistic random slope models are developed to explore the relationship between vote choice, racial attitudes, and neighborhood context. Results indicate significant variation across neighborhoods in the effects of race and racial attitudes, as well as significant contextual and cross-level effects on vote choice.
在城市市长选举中,社区背景如何影响个人种族认同、种族态度和投票选择之间的关系?虽然有很多关于种族背景、种族态度和政治行为的研究,但由于各种原因,包括方法的复杂性和缺乏高质量的背景出口民意调查数据,很少有研究关注城市选举中的投票选择。利用2005年洛杉矶选举的出口民调数据,建立了多层次logistic随机斜率模型来探讨投票选择、种族态度和社区背景之间的关系。结果表明,种族和种族态度的影响在不同社区之间存在显著差异,对投票选择的影响也存在显著的背景和跨层次影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparison of Two-Stage Segmentation Methods for Choice-Based Conjoint Data: A Simulation Study 基于选择的联合数据两阶段分割方法的比较:仿真研究
Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1846504
M. Crabbe, B. Jones, M. Vandebroek
Due to the increasing interest in market segmentation in modern marketing research, several methods for dealing with consumer heterogeneity and for revealing market segments have been described in the literature.In this study, the authors compare eight two-stage segmentation methods that aim to uncover consumer segments by classifying subject-specific indicator values. Four different indicators are used as a segmentation basis.The forces, which are subject-aggregated gradient values of the likelihood function, and the dfbetas, an outlier detection measure, are two indicators that express a subject’s effect on the estimation of the aggregate partworths in the conditional logit model. Although the conditional logit model is generally estimated at the aggregate level, this research obtains individual-level partworth estimates for segmentation purposes. The respondents’ raw choices are the final indicator values. The authors classify the indicators by means of cluster analysis and latent class models. The goal of the study is to compare the segmentation performance of the methods with respect to their success rate, membership recovery and segment mean parameter recovery. With regard to the individual-level estimates, the authors obtain poor segmentation results both with cluster and latent class analysis. The cluster methods based on the forces, the dfbetas and the choices yield good and similar results. Classification of the forces and the dfbetas deteriorates with the use of latent class analysis, whereas latent class modeling of the choices outperforms its cluster counterpart.
由于在现代市场营销研究市场细分的兴趣日益增加,几种方法来处理消费者异质性和揭示市场细分已在文献中描述。在这项研究中,作者比较了八种两阶段的分割方法,旨在通过分类特定主题的指标值来揭示消费者细分。使用四种不同的指标作为分割依据。力是似然函数的主体聚集梯度值,而dfbetas是一种离群值检测措施,它们是表达条件logit模型中主体对聚合部分估计的影响的两个指标。虽然条件logit模型通常在总体水平上进行估计,但本研究获得了用于分割目的的个人水平的partworth估计。被调查者的原始选择是最终的指标值。采用聚类分析和潜在类模型对指标进行分类。本研究的目的是比较这些方法的分割性能,包括它们的成功率、隶属度恢复和分段平均参数恢复。对于个人水平的估计,作者使用聚类和潜在类分析都获得了较差的分割结果。基于力、dfbeta和选择的聚类方法得到了类似的结果。使用潜在类分析,力和dfbeta的分类会恶化,而选择的潜在类建模优于其对应的聚类。
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引用次数: 2
The Financial Profiles of Takeover Target Firms and Their Takeover Predictability: Australian Evidence 收购目标公司的财务状况及其收购的可预测性:澳大利亚的证据
Pub Date : 2011-01-01 DOI: 10.22495/COCV8I3C6P1
Shuyi Cai, B. Balachandran, M. Dempsey
We investigate those features of Australian firms that make them likely takeover targets. To this end, we apply a logit probability model similar to the one developed by Palepu (1986). Our findings reveal that takeovers are most likely to be motivated by market under-valuation combined with high levels of tangible assets. Takeover targets may also be financially distressed with high levels of leverage and low liquidity, and may exhibit declining sales growth with decreasing profitability. Notwithstanding these insights, we find that the prediction models are unable to provide abnormal returns with a high statistical significance, thereby lending support to market efficiency.
我们调查了那些使澳大利亚公司成为收购目标的特征。为此,我们采用了一个类似于Palepu(1986)开发的logit概率模型。我们的研究结果表明,收购最有可能是由市场低估和高水平的有形资产驱动的。收购目标也可能因高杠杆和低流动性而陷入财务困境,并可能表现出销售增长下降和盈利能力下降。尽管有这些见解,但我们发现预测模型无法提供具有高统计显著性的异常收益,从而为市场效率提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
A Simple Globally Consistent Continuous Demand Model for Market Level Data 市场层面数据的简单全球一致连续需求模型
Pub Date : 2010-08-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1690163
P. Davis, Ricardo Ribeiro
This paper considers a new method of uncovering demand information from market level data on differentiated products. In particular, we propose a globally consistent continuous-choice demand model with distinct advantages over the models currently in use and describe the econometric techniques for its estimation. The proposed model combines key properties of both the discrete- and continuous-choice traditions: i) it is flexible in the sense of Diewert (1974), ii) it is globally consistent in the sense it can deal with the entry and exit of products over time, and iii) incorporates a structural error term. In order to encompass different possible real-world applications, we consider two alternative specifications of the baseline model depending on the degree of flexibility the researcher is willing to accept for the substitution patterns between inside and outside goods. The estimation procedure follows an analog to the algorithm derived in Berry (1994), Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995). Depending on the specification considered, the contraction mapping for matching observed and predicted budget shares may be analytical or not. The case for which the contraction is analytical is relatively simple and fast to estimate which can prove a key advantage in competition policy issues, where time and transparency are typically crucial factors. For the case it is not, we propose an alternative to Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)'s contraction mapping with super-linear rate of convergence. The final sections provide a series of Monte Carlo experiments to illustrate the estimation properties of the model and discuss how it can be extended to cope with consumer heterogeneity and dynamic behaviour.
本文提出了一种从差异化产品的市场层面数据中发现需求信息的新方法。特别是,我们提出了一个全球一致的连续选择需求模型,与目前使用的模型相比具有明显的优势,并描述了其估计的计量经济学技术。所提出的模型结合了离散选择和连续选择传统的关键属性:i)它在Diewert(1974)的意义上是灵活的,ii)它在可以处理产品随时间进入和退出的意义上是全局一致的,以及iii)包含结构误差项。为了涵盖不同可能的现实世界应用,我们考虑了基线模型的两种替代规范,这取决于研究人员愿意接受内部和外部商品之间替代模式的灵活性程度。估计过程与Berry(1994)、Berry、Levinsohn和Pakes(1995)推导的算法类似。根据所考虑的规范,用于匹配观察到的和预测的预算份额的收缩映射可能是分析性的,也可能不是。收缩是分析性的,估计起来相对简单和迅速,这可以证明在竞争政策问题上具有关键优势,因为时间和透明度通常是关键因素。对于这种情况,我们提出了一种替代Berry, Levinsohn和Pakes(1995)的具有超线性收敛率的收缩映射。最后部分提供了一系列蒙特卡罗实验,以说明模型的估计属性,并讨论如何扩展它以应对消费者异质性和动态行为。
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引用次数: 5
Generating Proactive Execution Policies for Resource-Constrained Projects with Uncertain Activity Durations 为活动持续时间不确定的资源受限项目生成主动执行策略
Pub Date : 2010-02-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1588642
Filip Deblaere, E. Demeulemeester, W. Herroelen
The resource-constrained project scheduling problem involves the determination of a schedule of the project activities, satisfying the precedence relations and resource constraints while minimizing the project duration. In practice, activity durations may be subject to variability, such that a stochastic approach to the problem is more appropriate. We propose a methodology for the determination of a project execution policy and a vector of predictive activity starting times with the objective of minimizing a cost function that consists of the weighted expected activity starting time deviations and the penalties or bonuses associated with late or early project completion. In a computational experiment, we show that our procedure greatly outperforms existing algorithms described in the literature
资源约束的项目调度问题涉及确定项目活动的进度,满足优先关系和资源约束,同时使项目持续时间最小化。在实践中,活动持续时间可能受到变化的影响,因此采用随机方法来解决问题更为合适。我们提出了一种确定项目执行策略和预测活动启动时间矢量的方法,其目标是最小化成本函数,该函数由加权预期活动启动时间偏差和与晚或早项目完成相关的惩罚或奖金组成。在计算实验中,我们表明我们的程序大大优于文献中描述的现有算法
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引用次数: 6
Estimating the Demand for Credit Card: A Regression Discontinuity Approach 信用卡需求估计:一种不连续回归方法
Pub Date : 2009-09-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1466449
Dandan Huang, Wei Tan
Using the credit card application data provided by a major credit card issuer, we estimate the demand for credit card using a regression discontinuity method. Our method exploits a unique feature of the credit card solicitation campaign design, i.e. credit issuer gives consumers different interest rate based on some cutoff points in consumers' credit score. This discontinuity in the interest rate offers allows us to obtain a reliable estimate of the effect of the interest rate on consumers' credit demand. We find that consumers' demand for credit card is near unit elasticity. The demand elasticity is estimated at -1.14. In addition, consumers with better credit rating are more responsive to interest rate than consumers with lower credit rating. We also find that, without controlling for the endogeneity of contracts, a regression model would give biased estimates.
利用某大型信用卡发卡机构提供的信用卡申请数据,采用不连续回归方法对信用卡需求进行估计。我们的方法利用了信用卡募捐活动设计的一个独特特征,即信用发卡机构根据消费者信用评分的一些截止点给予消费者不同的利率。利率提供的这种不连续性使我们能够可靠地估计利率对消费者信贷需求的影响。我们发现消费者对信用卡的需求接近单位弹性。需求弹性估计为-1.14。此外,信用等级高的消费者对利率的反应比信用等级低的消费者更灵敏。我们还发现,如果不控制契约的内生性,回归模型将给出有偏差的估计。
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引用次数: 2
Determining the Choice of Entry Mode of Multinationals: My 6 Million Regressions 跨国公司进入模式的选择:我的600万次回归
Pub Date : 2009-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1445422
Magdalena Ramada-Sarasola
Motivated by the findings of Ramada-Sarasola (2009) and the lack of robustness of the previous literature’s results on foreign entry mode choice to model specification in this paper I perform an Extreme Bounds Analysis to determine which of almost 60 explanatory variables used in the literature are robust to different model specifications. I do so by following the methodology introduced in Sala-i-Martin (1997b) in a multinomial logit framework, based on 640 entries into foreign countries done by the largest 22 financial MNCs in the last 15 years. I suggest additional hypothesis to capture host-country level determinants and I improve the operationalization of industry level variables in a multi home-country and host-country setting. Amongst other results I find that an MNC’s size and its international experience increase the likelihood of greenfields as opposed to M&A or any type of entry mode involving a partner, and that more cultural distance between home and host country, a better developed local financial sector (or local credit market), a more regulated environment for obtaining licenses and more macroeconomic sustainability increase the chances of GI, while a worse local infrastructure, higher ITC costs and more difficulties in registering property and employing workers decrease its odds.
在Ramada-Sarasola(2009)的研究结果的激励下,以及本文中先前文献关于外国进入模式选择对模型规范的结果缺乏鲁棒性的激励下,我进行了极限界分析,以确定文献中使用的近60个解释变量中哪些对不同的模型规范具有鲁棒性。我遵循Sala-i-Martin (1997b)在多项逻辑框架中引入的方法,该方法基于过去15年中最大的22家金融跨国公司在国外进行的640次进入。我提出了额外的假设,以捕捉东道国层面的决定因素,并改进了在多母国和东道国背景下行业层面变量的可操作性。在其他结果中,我发现跨国公司的规模和国际经验增加了绿地的可能性,而不是并购或涉及合作伙伴的任何类型的进入模式,母国和东道国之间的文化距离越远,当地金融部门(或当地信贷市场)越发达,获得许可证的监管环境越严格,宏观经济的可持续性越强,增加了地理标志的可能性,而当地基础设施较差。更高的国际贸易中心成本,以及登记财产和雇用工人方面的更多困难,都降低了它的胜算。
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引用次数: 1
Misspecification and Heterogeneity in Single-Index, Binary Choice Models 单指标二元选择模型的错定性和异质性
Pub Date : 2009-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1393062
Pian Chen, M. Velamuri
We propose a nonparametric approach for estimating single-index, binary-choice models when parametric models such as Probit and Logit are potentially misspecified. The new approach involves two steps: first, we estimate index coefficients using sliced inverse regression without specifying a parametric probability function a priori; second, we estimate the unknown probability function using kernel regression of the binary choice variable on the single index estimated in the first step. The estimated probability functions for different demographic groups indicate that the conventional dummy variable approach cannot fully capture heterogeneous effects across groups. Using both simulated and labor market data, we demonstrate the merits of this new approach in solving model misspecification and heterogeneity problems.
当参数模型如Probit和Logit可能被错误指定时,我们提出了一种非参数方法来估计单指标二元选择模型。新方法包括两个步骤:首先,我们使用切片逆回归估计指标系数,而不指定先验的参数概率函数;其次,我们使用二元选择变量的核回归对第一步估计的单个指标估计未知概率函数。不同人口统计群体的估计概率函数表明,传统的虚拟变量方法不能完全捕获群体间的异质效应。使用模拟和劳动力市场数据,我们证明了这种新方法在解决模型错误规范和异质性问题方面的优点。
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引用次数: 0
Nonstandard Estimation of Inverse Conditional Density-Weighted Expectations 逆条件密度加权期望的非标准估计
Pub Date : 2009-04-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1333779
Chuan Goh
This paper is concerned with the semiparametric estimation of function means that are scaled by an unknown conditional density function. Parameters of this form arise naturally in the consideration of models where interest is focused on the expected value of an integral of a conditional expectation with respect to a continuously distributed “special regressor”' with unbounded support. In particular, a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of an inverse conditional density-weighted average is proposed whose validity does not require data-dependent trimming or the subjective choice of smoothing parameters. The asymptotic normality result is also rate adaptive in the sense that it allows for the formulation of the usual Wald-type inference procedures without knowledge of the estimator's actual rate of convergence, which depends in general on the tail behaviour of the conditional density weight. The theory developed in this paper exploits recent results of Goh & Knight (2009) concerning the behaviour of estimated regression-quantile residuals. Simulation experiments illustrating the applicability of the procedure proposed here to a semiparametric binary-choice model are suggestive of good small-sample performance.
研究了由未知条件密度函数标度的函数均值的半参数估计问题。这种形式的参数在考虑模型时自然出现,其中兴趣集中在条件期望的积分的期望值上,相对于具有无界支持的连续分布的“特殊回归量”。特别地,提出了逆条件密度加权平均的一致渐近正态估计,其有效性不需要依赖于数据的修剪或平滑参数的主观选择。渐近正态性结果在某种意义上也是自适应的,因为它允许在不知道估计器的实际收敛率的情况下制定通常的wald型推理过程,这通常取决于条件密度权重的尾部行为。本文开发的理论利用了Goh和Knight(2009)关于估计回归分位数残差行为的最新结果。仿真实验表明,本文提出的方法适用于半参数二值选择模型,具有良好的小样本性能。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Discrete Regression & Qualitative Choice Models (Single) (Topic)
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