Pub Date : 2022-04-26DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.20221301011
Austen D. Givens, Nikki Sanders, Corye J. Douglas
Abstract:Extant scholarship on Iranian cyber warfare emphasizes the ways in which Tehran's cyber capabilities might be employed offensively to achieve its foreign policy objectives. Comparatively little attention, however, has been given to the ways in which Iran might leverage these same cyber assets in retaliatory strikes. This article argues that because of the unique combination of endogenous and exogenous variables affecting contemporary Iran, including diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions, as well as Iran's historical track record of carrying out its foreign policy through proxies, Iranian cyber retaliation is likely to be executed through third parties, mostly symbolic in nature, and proportionate in scale.
{"title":"Forecasting Iranian Government Responses to Cyberattacks","authors":"Austen D. Givens, Nikki Sanders, Corye J. Douglas","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.20221301011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.20221301011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Extant scholarship on Iranian cyber warfare emphasizes the ways in which Tehran's cyber capabilities might be employed offensively to achieve its foreign policy objectives. Comparatively little attention, however, has been given to the ways in which Iran might leverage these same cyber assets in retaliatory strikes. This article argues that because of the unique combination of endogenous and exogenous variables affecting contemporary Iran, including diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions, as well as Iran's historical track record of carrying out its foreign policy through proxies, Iranian cyber retaliation is likely to be executed through third parties, mostly symbolic in nature, and proportionate in scale.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132845528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-26DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.20221301005
Elizabeth G. Boulton
Abstract:A transdisciplinary research project investigated the idea of framing climate and environmental change (CEC) as a new type of threat: a hyperthreat. Traditional military analytical methods were used to assess the hyperthreat and its context and develop ideas about how an adequate response could be conceived. This approach contrasts to prior literature and longstanding geopolitical discourse that identify the risks of taking a securitization approach. Instead, the author argues that it is now riskier not to consider CEC within a mainstream geopolitical and nation-state security strategy. When the hyperthreat of CEC is centered as the main threat to be contained, and its relationship to other threats is analyzed, startling new pathways to stability emerge. The research developed a new theoretical approach called "entangled security" to develop an initial new "grand narrative" and "grand strategy" (PLAN E). This article offers a vision of how military theory can be reimagined to support new policy directions and security priorities.
{"title":"Plan E: A Grand Strategy for the Twenty-first Century Era of Entangled Security and Hyperthreats","authors":"Elizabeth G. Boulton","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.20221301005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.20221301005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:A transdisciplinary research project investigated the idea of framing climate and environmental change (CEC) as a new type of threat: a hyperthreat. Traditional military analytical methods were used to assess the hyperthreat and its context and develop ideas about how an adequate response could be conceived. This approach contrasts to prior literature and longstanding geopolitical discourse that identify the risks of taking a securitization approach. Instead, the author argues that it is now riskier not to consider CEC within a mainstream geopolitical and nation-state security strategy. When the hyperthreat of CEC is centered as the main threat to be contained, and its relationship to other threats is analyzed, startling new pathways to stability emerge. The research developed a new theoretical approach called \"entangled security\" to develop an initial new \"grand narrative\" and \"grand strategy\" (PLAN E). This article offers a vision of how military theory can be reimagined to support new policy directions and security priorities.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"145 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116434211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul005
Evan Kerrane
Shifting balances in power realities increase uncertainty and tensions among states. During those times of rising powers and changing alliances, it is imperative to understand how states determine adversaries and how they choose to engage threats. However, biases in decision making at the state level obscure a conceptualization of state action and intent. This article argues that the study of strategic culture helps bridge the gap between state-level biases and actions at the structural level. Furthermore, the understanding of militarism as Russia’s strategic culture helps contextualize certain Kremlin policy choices that seem to fall outside conventional international relations frameworks. A better understanding of Russia’s strategic lens brings insights into Moscow’s actions, particularly within the near abroad.
{"title":"Moscow’s Strategic Culture: Russian Militarism in an Era of Great Power Competition","authors":"Evan Kerrane","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul005","url":null,"abstract":"Shifting balances in power realities increase uncertainty and tensions among states. During those times of rising powers and changing alliances, it is imperative to understand how states determine adversaries and how they choose to engage threats. However, biases in decision making at the state level obscure a conceptualization of state action and intent. This article argues that the study of strategic culture helps bridge the gap between state-level biases and actions at the structural level. Furthermore, the understanding of militarism as Russia’s strategic culture helps contextualize certain Kremlin policy choices that seem to fall outside conventional international relations frameworks. A better understanding of Russia’s strategic lens brings insights into Moscow’s actions, particularly within the near abroad.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"254 21","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120864823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul011
Emilee Matheson
Abstract:A recent increase in defections from the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA)—a Central Africa-based religious militia—has resulted in a rise in violent, survival-motivated lootings of local villages and nongovernmental organization (NGO) outposts perpetrated by former LRA members who are deterred from rejoining their home communities by perceived resentment and hostility among local community members. These ongoing hostilities have compounded an existing humanitarian crisis in Central Africa and intensified regional instability. Cultural data show that if NGOs partnered with local leaders, reintegrated LRA defectors, and tailored their reintegration narratives to appeal to LRA cultural biases, they are more likely to preserve NGO resources through a sustainable decrease in attacks and an increase in successful reintegration efforts.
{"title":"Lord's Resistance Army Culture Provides Opening to Prevent Attacks and Advance Humanitarian Efforts","authors":"Emilee Matheson","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:A recent increase in defections from the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA)—a Central Africa-based religious militia—has resulted in a rise in violent, survival-motivated lootings of local villages and nongovernmental organization (NGO) outposts perpetrated by former LRA members who are deterred from rejoining their home communities by perceived resentment and hostility among local community members. These ongoing hostilities have compounded an existing humanitarian crisis in Central Africa and intensified regional instability. Cultural data show that if NGOs partnered with local leaders, reintegrated LRA defectors, and tailored their reintegration narratives to appeal to LRA cultural biases, they are more likely to preserve NGO resources through a sustainable decrease in attacks and an increase in successful reintegration efforts.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133193166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul001
A. Parchami
Abstract:Highlighting the nexus between the Islamic Republic's strategic culture and behavior, this article argues that Iran's clerical leadership is ideological in its orientation but has always demonstrated tactical nous and pragmatism. Domestically, it pursues Islamification in conformity with Khomeinism. Regionally, it fosters conditions that might force the United States and its European allies out of the Middle East and oblige local governments to seek accommodation. Its network of regional affiliates and proxies are primarily tools of deterrence to safeguard the regime. Nevertheless, Tehran has a penchant for opportunistically promoting regional instability and arming substate actors to ensnare adversaries in protracted conflicts. Its interventionist proclivities are also borne out of domestic exigencies. Paradoxically, the regime compensates for its diminishing legitimacy by becoming even more aggressive at home and adventurous abroad. There are growing signs, however, that the Islamic Republic's strategic culture may be its undoing.
{"title":"An Iranian Worldview: The Strategic Culture of the Islamic Republic","authors":"A. Parchami","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Highlighting the nexus between the Islamic Republic's strategic culture and behavior, this article argues that Iran's clerical leadership is ideological in its orientation but has always demonstrated tactical nous and pragmatism. Domestically, it pursues Islamification in conformity with Khomeinism. Regionally, it fosters conditions that might force the United States and its European allies out of the Middle East and oblige local governments to seek accommodation. Its network of regional affiliates and proxies are primarily tools of deterrence to safeguard the regime. Nevertheless, Tehran has a penchant for opportunistically promoting regional instability and arming substate actors to ensnare adversaries in protracted conflicts. Its interventionist proclivities are also borne out of domestic exigencies. Paradoxically, the regime compensates for its diminishing legitimacy by becoming even more aggressive at home and adventurous abroad. There are growing signs, however, that the Islamic Republic's strategic culture may be its undoing.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121362911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul007
Katie C. Finlinson
Abstract:This article uses a comprehensive examination of Emirati strategic culture and its national role conception to examine the likelihood that the United Arab Emirates would pursue the possession of a nuclear weapons program. The article concludes that the UAE is predisposed to reject the pursuit and possession of nuclear weapons due to its dominant national role as a regional and global collaborator; the high value it places in its conventional military capabilities and alliance with the United States; Emirati identity as a regional leader in social and technological innovation with the intent to elevate the country beyond regional stereotypes of violence, repudiation of progress, and political Islam; and its unique perceptual lens on productive strategies for operating within Iran's sphere of influence. Continued rejection of a nuclear weapons program hinges on U.S. engagement in the region, where the United States has a willing and like-minded ally.
{"title":"The United Arab Emirates as a Case Study in Assessing Over-the-Horizon Nuclear Proliferation","authors":"Katie C. Finlinson","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This article uses a comprehensive examination of Emirati strategic culture and its national role conception to examine the likelihood that the United Arab Emirates would pursue the possession of a nuclear weapons program. The article concludes that the UAE is predisposed to reject the pursuit and possession of nuclear weapons due to its dominant national role as a regional and global collaborator; the high value it places in its conventional military capabilities and alliance with the United States; Emirati identity as a regional leader in social and technological innovation with the intent to elevate the country beyond regional stereotypes of violence, repudiation of progress, and political Islam; and its unique perceptual lens on productive strategies for operating within Iran's sphere of influence. Continued rejection of a nuclear weapons program hinges on U.S. engagement in the region, where the United States has a willing and like-minded ally.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134274232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul012
Jeffrey Taylor
Abstract:Tensions between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia have sustained a precarious security environment in Eastern Europe that could quickly escalate to nuclear war. To deter possible Russian nuclear aggression, the United States recently published nuclear policies that called for the deployment of new submarine-launched, low-yield nuclear weapons around Europe. This article highlights how these new U.S. nuclear policies may be reinforcing Russian perceptions and fears of Western aggression. The article suggests that common U.S. characterizations of Russian low-yield nuclear doctrine miss important escalation considerations prominent in Russian military discourse. The article also argues that misalignment between U.S. and Russian officials regarding nuclear intent may increase the likelihood that a miscalculation would escalate to nuclear war.
{"title":"Deterring Russian Nuclear Threats with Low-Yield Nukes May Encourage Limited Nuclear War","authors":"Jeffrey Taylor","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Tensions between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia have sustained a precarious security environment in Eastern Europe that could quickly escalate to nuclear war. To deter possible Russian nuclear aggression, the United States recently published nuclear policies that called for the deployment of new submarine-launched, low-yield nuclear weapons around Europe. This article highlights how these new U.S. nuclear policies may be reinforcing Russian perceptions and fears of Western aggression. The article suggests that common U.S. characterizations of Russian low-yield nuclear doctrine miss important escalation considerations prominent in Russian military discourse. The article also argues that misalignment between U.S. and Russian officials regarding nuclear intent may increase the likelihood that a miscalculation would escalate to nuclear war.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"732 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123856346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul009
Ben Connable
Abstract:Will to fight is the most important factor in war. This article describes two models designed to help analysts understand, describe, and forecast the will to fight of military forces and national leaders. Both models are designed to be modified by the Joint Force for tailored uses around the world.
{"title":"Structuring Cultural Analyses: Applying the Holistic Will-to-Fight Models","authors":"Ben Connable","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Will to fight is the most important factor in war. This article describes two models designed to help analysts understand, describe, and forecast the will to fight of military forces and national leaders. Both models are designed to be modified by the Joint Force for tailored uses around the world.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122997662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul004
W. A. Rivera
Abstract:Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the strategic culture of resistance has dominated Iran's strategic objective and foreign policy preference formation. Iran is a revisionist state that lacks overwhelming military and economic dominance in its near abroad, as such two pillars have emerged to support and export their strategic culture of resistance: adaptive resistance (pragmatism) and designed redundancy (insulation and deniability). These two themes of resistance provide content and structure to their strategic influence campaigns. Strategic influence is the way in which elements of the strategic culture of resistance are executed in Iran's near abroad. To combat and defeat strategic influence campaigns, it is necessary to understand both the strategic cultural factors at play and the strategic influence campaigns that Iran deploys.
{"title":"The Strategic Culture of Resistance: Iranian Strategic Influence in Its Near Abroad","authors":"W. A. Rivera","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the strategic culture of resistance has dominated Iran's strategic objective and foreign policy preference formation. Iran is a revisionist state that lacks overwhelming military and economic dominance in its near abroad, as such two pillars have emerged to support and export their strategic culture of resistance: adaptive resistance (pragmatism) and designed redundancy (insulation and deniability). These two themes of resistance provide content and structure to their strategic influence campaigns. Strategic influence is the way in which elements of the strategic culture of resistance are executed in Iran's near abroad. To combat and defeat strategic influence campaigns, it is necessary to understand both the strategic cultural factors at play and the strategic influence campaigns that Iran deploys.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121886746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul008
M. Briskey
Abstract:This article examines the early foundations of the strategic culture of the Pakistan Army. By exploring the impact of the partition of British India in 1947 and the First Kashmir War of 1947–48, the article identifies the pivotal factors in the development of strategic culture of Pakistan. In also examining Pakistani fears of a "vengeful" Hindu India and a persistence in the belief of discredited martial race theories as well as the idea of a Muslim military exceptionalism, the article concludes that the foundation of this culture remains evident while it is also malleable to contemporaneous events.
{"title":"The Foundations of Pakistan's Strategic Culture: Fears of an Irredentist India, Muslim Identity, Martial Race, and Political Realism","authors":"M. Briskey","doi":"10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21140/mcuj.2022sistratcul008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This article examines the early foundations of the strategic culture of the Pakistan Army. By exploring the impact of the partition of British India in 1947 and the First Kashmir War of 1947–48, the article identifies the pivotal factors in the development of strategic culture of Pakistan. In also examining Pakistani fears of a \"vengeful\" Hindu India and a persistence in the belief of discredited martial race theories as well as the idea of a Muslim military exceptionalism, the article concludes that the foundation of this culture remains evident while it is also malleable to contemporaneous events.","PeriodicalId":168300,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Military Studies","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130123919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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