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Habit Formation and Keeping Up with the Joneses: Evidence from Micro Data 习惯形成与攀比:来自微数据的证据
Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.928248
Enrichetta Ravina
This paper provides evidence of habit persistence in household consumption choices. I find that the strength of external habit, captured by the fraction of the consumption of the reference group that enters the utility function, is 0.290, and the strength of internal habit, represented by household past consumption, is 0.503. The results are robust to controlling for various measures of economic activity, tests for the presence of aggregate shocks, liquidity constraints, precautionary saving motives, and learning. Aggregation of the Euler equations as a weighted average of individual marginal rates of substitution accounts for heterogeneity and market incompleteness and preserves the results.
本文提供了家庭消费选择中习惯持久性的证据。我发现外部习惯的强度,通过进入效用函数的参考组的消费比例来捕捉,是0.290,而内部习惯的强度,通过家庭过去的消费来代表,是0.503。这些结果对于控制经济活动的各种措施、对总体冲击、流动性约束、预防性储蓄动机和学习的存在的测试都是稳健的。欧拉方程的集合作为个体边际替代率的加权平均值说明了异质性和市场不完备性,并保留了结果。
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引用次数: 64
The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy: Estimates for the Euro Area 财政政策的一般均衡效应:对欧元区的估计
Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1075266
L. Forni, Libero Monteforte, L. Sessa
This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.
为了估计欧元区财政政策的效果,本文描述了一个具有部分非李嘉图主体的动态随机一般均衡模型。该模型考虑了对劳动和资本收入以及消费的扭曲性税收,而支出则被分解为购买商品和服务、公务员的补偿和向家庭的转移。使用了新计算的财政变量季度数据集。我们的研究结果表明,公共支出普遍存在温和的凯恩斯效应。特别是,虽然财政政策变量的创新往往是相当持久的,但政府购买商品和服务以及对公务员的补偿对私人消费的扩张影响很小,而且是短暂的,而向家庭转移的创新则显示出更大更持久的影响。这种影响在收入方面更为显著:劳动所得和消费税税率的降低对消费和产出有相当大的影响,而资本所得税的降低在中期有利于投资和产出。最后,我们的估计表明,财政政策变量对主要宏观变量的周期性变化贡献不大。
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引用次数: 644
Self-Confirming Equilibrium and the Lucas Critique 自我确认均衡与卢卡斯批判
Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1030298
D. Fudenberg, D. Levine
We examine the role of off-path "superstitions" in macro-economics, and show how a false belief about off-path play is the key element underlying both the Lucas Critique and the game-theoretic concept of self-confirming equilibrium. However, the impact of false beliefs in these two cases is different: In the Lucas case, a policy maker's incorrect beliefs about off-path play can lead to the adoption of mistaken policy innovation. However, the consequences of such an innovation provide evidence that the belief that motivated them was wrong. In contrast, play may never escape an undesirable self-confirming equilibrium, as the action implied by the mistaken belief does not generate data that contradicts it; escape from the self-confirming equilibrium requires that players do a sufficient amount of experimentation with off-path actions.
我们研究了偏离路径的“迷信”在宏观经济学中的作用,并展示了关于偏离路径的错误信念是如何成为卢卡斯批判和自我确认均衡博弈论概念背后的关键因素。然而,在这两种情况下,错误信念的影响是不同的:在卢卡斯的情况下,政策制定者对偏离路径的错误信念可能导致采取错误的政策创新。然而,这种创新的结果提供了证据,证明激励他们的信念是错误的。相反,游戏可能永远无法摆脱不受欢迎的自我确认平衡,因为错误信念所暗示的行动不会产生与之相矛盾的数据;要摆脱自我确认的平衡,玩家就必须对偏离路径的行动进行足够多的实验。
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引用次数: 46
Foreign Direct Investment in China: Reward or Remedy? 外商直接投资中国:奖励还是补救?
Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01076.x
Sandra Poncet, Olena Havrylchyk
This paper tests the significance of FDI as a way to alleviate credit constraints. Incoming foreign investment provides additional sources of capital. Specifically in the Chinese case, enterprises may look for foreign investors, being constrained in their activity due to distortions in the state-dominated system. First, the Chinese financial system allocates resources to the least efficient firms - state-owned enterprises - while denying the same resources to Chinese private enterprises, forcing them to look for a foreign investor. Second, the inefficient system of state investment planning leads to mismanagement of public enterprises, increasing 'insolvency-induced FDI'. We propose to analyse determinants of FDI in Chinese provinces to test the above hypotheses. We control for traditional determinants of FDI such as market access, labour costs, productivity, infrastructure, reform advances and banking sector size in order to assess the impact of inter-provincial heterogeneity in terms of the access that private enterprises have to credit and the distortive management in state-owned firms. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .
本文检验了FDI作为缓解信贷约束的一种方式的意义。外来投资提供了额外的资金来源。具体而言,在中国,企业可能会寻找外国投资者,但由于国家主导的体制扭曲,它们的活动受到限制。首先,中国的金融体系将资源分配给效率最低的企业——国有企业——同时拒绝向中国民营企业提供同样的资源,迫使它们寻找外国投资者。其次,低效的国家投资计划制度导致公共企业管理不善,增加了“破产导致的外国直接投资”。我们建议通过分析中国各省FDI的决定因素来检验上述假设。我们控制了外商直接投资的传统决定因素,如市场准入、劳动力成本、生产率、基础设施、改革进展和银行业规模,以评估省际异质性对私营企业获得信贷的机会和国有企业扭曲管理的影响。版权所有2007作家杂志汇编2007布莱克威尔出版有限公司。
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引用次数: 63
Start-Up Financing: Outside Equity 创业融资:外部股权
Pub Date : 2007-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1023942
Hans K. Hvide, Aksel Mjøs
We investigate the extent to which start-ups use outside equity, and interpret our results in relation to financial contracting theory. We do so by studying the start-up and founder characteristics that are associated with the use of outside equity financing, using a unique dataset from Norway. Our findings suggest that adverse selection are less of a concern for start-ups than ex-post opportunistic behavior (risk shifting) by the entrepreneur as in Myers (1977) and Ravid & Spiegler (1997). One implication of this finding is that outside equity and debt are complements rather than substitutes, and that an extra unit of equity financing has a multiplicative effect on total financing through releasing additional debt financing. We do not find convincing evidence that the use of outside equity has detrimental effects on entrepreneurial effort, nor that a possible shortage of available outside equity leads to investor monopolization and excessive investor returns. Thus we provide evidence that outside equity provides an important avenue for entrepreneurs to escape liquidity constraints.
我们调查了创业公司使用外部股权的程度,并将我们的结果与金融契约理论联系起来。为此,我们使用来自挪威的独特数据集,研究与外部股权融资相关的初创企业和创始人特征。我们的研究结果表明,与Myers(1977)和Ravid & Spiegler(1997)的研究结果相比,企业家的事后机会主义行为(风险转移)对初创企业的影响更小。这一发现的一个含义是,外部股权和债务是互补的,而不是替代的,一个额外的股权融资单位通过释放额外的债务融资,对总融资具有乘数效应。我们没有找到令人信服的证据表明,使用外部股权对创业努力有不利影响,也没有证据表明,可用外部股权的可能短缺会导致投资者垄断和投资者回报过高。因此,我们提供的证据表明,外部股权为企业家提供了逃避流动性约束的重要途径。
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引用次数: 1
Monte Carlo Methods and Path-Generation Techniques for Pricing Multi-Asset Path-Dependent Options 多资产路径依赖期权定价的蒙特卡罗方法和路径生成技术
Pub Date : 2007-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1020151
P. Sabino
We consider the problem of pricing path-dependent options on a basket of underlying assets using simulations. As an example we develop our studies using Asian options. Asian options are derivative contracts in which the underlying variable is the average price of given assets sampled over a period of time. Due to this structure, Asian options display a lower volatility and are therefore cheaper than their standard European counterparts. This paper is a survey of some recent enhancements to improve efficiency when pricing Asian options by Monte Carlo simulation in the Black-Scholes model. We analyze the dynamics with constant and time-dependent volatilities of the underlying asset returns. We present a comparison between the precision of the standard Monte Carlo method (MC) and the stratified Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). In particular, we discuss the use of low-discrepancy sequences, also known as Quasi-Monte Carlo method (QMC), and a randomized version of these sequences, known as Randomized Quasi Monte Carlo (RQMC). The latter has proven to be a useful variance reduction technique for both problems of up to 20 dimensions and for very high dimensions. Moreover, we present and test a new path generation approach based on a Kronecker product approximation (KPA) in the case of time-dependent volatilities. KPA proves to be a fast generation technique and reduces the computational cost of the simulation procedure.
我们考虑了基于一篮子标的资产的路径依赖期权的定价问题。例如,我们利用亚洲期权开展研究。亚洲期权是一种衍生合约,其基础变量是给定资产在一段时间内抽样的平均价格。由于这种结构,亚洲期权表现出较低的波动性,因此比标准的欧洲期权更便宜。本文综述了近年来在Black-Scholes模型中利用蒙特卡罗模拟来提高亚洲期权定价效率的一些改进。我们分析了基础资产收益的恒定和随时间波动的动态。我们比较了标准蒙特卡罗方法(MC)和分层拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)的精度。特别地,我们讨论了低差异序列的使用,也称为准蒙特卡罗方法(QMC),以及这些序列的随机版本,称为随机准蒙特卡罗(RQMC)。对于最多20维的问题和非常高维的问题,后者已被证明是一种有用的方差缩减技术。此外,我们提出并测试了一种新的基于Kronecker积近似(KPA)的路径生成方法。证明了KPA是一种快速生成技术,降低了仿真过程的计算成本。
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引用次数: 8
Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone: An Analytical Perspective CFA区域的财政反应功能:一个分析视角
Pub Date : 2007-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451867961.001
Olumuyiwa S. Adedeji, Oral H. Williams
The stance of fiscal policy in CEMAC and WAEMU is strongly influenced by fiscal effort in the previous period. This persistence underscores the risks of a procyclical fiscal policy stance, given these countries' high degree of dependence on primary commodities and exposure to terms of trade shocks. This paper finds that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort. Various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth and per capita GDP, openness, and the terms of trade were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. As fiscal performance seems to be strongly affected by both real GDP growth and terms of trade fluctuations, there appears to be a need to develop supplementary fiscal-related criteria that take into account the influence of output and the terms of trade.
中非经济共同体和西非货币联盟的财政政策立场受到前一时期财政努力的强烈影响。鉴于这些国家对初级商品的高度依赖以及对贸易条件冲击的敞口,这种持续突显了顺周期财政政策立场的风险。本文发现,滞后债务存量的系数显著且为正,与债务水平越高,财政力度越大的理论相一致。经济表现的各种衡量指标,如经济增长和人均国内生产总值、开放程度和贸易条件,也被发现是解释财政表现的重要因素。由于财政业绩似乎受到实际国内总产值增长和贸易条件波动的强烈影响,因此似乎有必要制定考虑到产出和贸易条件影响的补充财政相关标准。
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引用次数: 31
From Separate Accounting to Formula Apportionment: Analysis in a Dynamic Framework 从单独核算到公式分摊:动态框架下的分析
Pub Date : 2007-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1022503
Doina Radulescu
This paper analyzes the switch from Separate Accounting to Formula Apportionment in a dynamic framework. The model features both purely domestic corporations and a domestic multinational which invests at home and abroad as well as a purely foreign corporation and a foreign multinational which invests in the foreign economy as well as in the domestic country. Using such a framework we can show that since the new FA rules apply only to multinational firms, this will affect the domestic activity of purely domestic or foreign corporations since these stick to SA and thus the marginal product of labour and capital will be different for the two firm types. This in turn will affect the investment incentives and distort capital and labour allocation between the different types of enterprises operating in an economy.
本文在动态框架下分析了从单独核算到公式分摊的转变。该模式既包括纯国内公司和在国内外投资的国内跨国公司,也包括纯外国公司和在国外经济和国内经济投资的外国跨国公司。使用这样的框架,我们可以表明,由于新的FA规则仅适用于跨国公司,这将影响纯国内或外国公司的国内活动,因为这些公司坚持SA,因此两种公司类型的劳动力和资本的边际产量将不同。这反过来又会影响投资激励,扭曲一个经济体中不同类型企业之间的资本和劳动力配置。
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引用次数: 68
Expected Social Security Wealth Simulations and Generational Fairness of the Turkish PAYG System 预期社会保障财富模拟与土耳其现收现付制的代际公平
Pub Date : 2007-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1060461
Yigit Aydede
As it evolves around the world, Social Security financed on pay-as-you-go (PAYG) basis increasingly becomes a Ponzi scheme due to aging populations. The main objective of Social Security is to insure seniors against an uncertain life span. However, as the probability of being a net loser rises for coming generations, this objective receives questions with increasing public confusion: how does Social Security affect lifetime wealth? How could one calculate financial terms of Social Security for households in different generations? This paper calculates the aggregate social security wealth (SSW) series for the first time for an emerging country, Turkey. The simulations cover the period between 1970 and 2003 and the results show that the anticipated SSW is the biggest part of household wealth in Turkey and therefore it should not be ignored in economic studies. This paper also analyzes the redistributive characteristics of the system to understand its generational fairness by calculating its implicit internal rate of return and the net gains and losses from participating in the system for representative individuals in different age cohorts. The principal finding is that Social Security in Turkey constitutes significant wealth transfers among different age cohorts.
随着社会保障制度在世界范围内的发展,由于人口老龄化,现收现付的社会保障制度越来越成为庞氏骗局。社会保障的主要目标是为老年人提供保险,使其免受不确定寿命的影响。然而,随着未来几代人成为净输家的可能性上升,这一目标受到了越来越多的公众困惑的质疑:社会保障如何影响终身财富?如何计算不同世代家庭的社会保障财务条款?本文首次计算了新兴国家土耳其的社会保障财富总量(SSW)系列。模拟涵盖了1970年至2003年期间,结果表明,预期的社会福利是土耳其家庭财富的最大组成部分,因此在经济研究中不应忽视它。本文还分析了该制度的再分配特征,通过计算不同年龄段的代表性个体参与该制度的隐性内部收益率和净收益和净损失来理解其代际公平性。主要发现是,土耳其的社会保障构成了不同年龄群体之间的重大财富转移。
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引用次数: 4
An Asset-Pricing View of External Adjustment 外部调整的资产定价观
Pub Date : 2007-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1012962
A. Pavlova, R. Rigobón
Recent evidence on the importance of cross-border equity flows calls for a rethinking of the standard theory of external adjustment. We introduce equity holdings and portfolio choice into an otherwise conventional open-economy dynamic equilibrium model. Our model is simple and admits a closed-form solution regardless of whether financial markets are complete or incomplete. We find that the excessive emphasis put in the literature on solving models with incomplete markets for the sole purpose of obtaining nontrivial implications for the current account is misplaced. We revisit the current debate on the relative importance of the standard vs. the capital-gains-based (or "valuation'') channels of the external adjustment and establish that in our framework they are congruent. Our model's implications are consistent with a number of intriguing stylized facts documented in the recent empirical literature.
最近有关跨境股本流动重要性的证据,要求我们重新思考外部调整的标准理论。我们将股权持有和投资组合选择引入到传统的开放经济动态均衡模型中。我们的模型很简单,不管金融市场是完整的还是不完整的,它都承认一个封闭的解决方案。我们发现,文献中过分强调解决不完全市场模型的唯一目的是获得对经常账户的重要影响,这是错误的。我们重新审视当前关于标准与基于资本收益(或“估值”)的外部调整渠道的相对重要性的辩论,并确定在我们的框架中它们是一致的。我们的模型的含义与最近的实证文献中记录的一些有趣的程式化事实是一致的。
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引用次数: 60
期刊
Macroeconomics eJournal
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