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Information Asymmetry and Listing of Acquiring Firms 信息不对称与并购企业上市
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1097399
Patrick Cusatis
In this study, I examine announcement period returns and long-term returns to acquiring firms following the completion of a merger. I offer an explanation for negative merger performance based on asymmetric information. My evidence indicates that there is a link between trading venue and information asymmetry. In addition, the losses from the merger wave of 1998-2002 appear to be linked to trading venue.
在本研究中,我考察了并购完成后收购公司的公告期回报和长期回报。本文提出了一种基于信息不对称的负并购绩效解释。我的证据表明,交易场所与信息不对称之间存在联系。此外,1998年至2002年合并浪潮中的亏损似乎与交易场所有关。
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引用次数: 0
Gender and Marital Differences in Wealth and Investment Decisions: Implications for Researchers, Financial Professionals, and Educators 财富和投资决策中的性别和婚姻差异:对研究人员、金融专业人士和教育工作者的启示
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1109103
Angela C. Lyons, Urvi Neelakantan, Erik Scherpf
Wealth is an important source of financial well-being and investment is an important vehicle to accumulate wealth. A large body of literature has focused on analyzing the systematic differences in wealth and investment behavior across gender and marital states. This paper provides a broad overview of the extant research and its implications for researchers, financial professionals, and educators.
财富是财务健康的重要来源,投资是积累财富的重要工具。大量文献集中于分析不同性别和婚姻状态下财富和投资行为的系统性差异。本文提供了一个广泛的概述现有的研究及其对研究人员,金融专业人士和教育工作者的启示。
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引用次数: 26
Investor Protection, Equity Returns and Financial Globalization 投资者保护、股权回报与金融全球化
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.942513
Mariassunta Giannetti, Y. Koskinen
We study the effects of investor protection on equilibrium stock prices, returns and portfolio allocation decisions. In our theoretical model, if investor protection is weak, wealthy investors have an incentive to become controlling shareholders. In equilibrium, the stock price reflects the demand from both controlling shareholders and portfolio investors. As a consequence, due to the high demand from controlling shareholders, the price of weak corporate governance stocks is not low enough to fully discount the extraction of private benefits. This generates the following empirical implications. First, stocks should have lower expected returns when investor protection is weak. Second, domestic and foreign investors' participation in the stock market should be lower in countries with weak investor protection. Third, portfolio investors from countries with weak investor protection should hold relatively more foreign equity. Fourth, countries with weak investor protection should receive relatively more foreign direct investment. We show that these implications are consistent with existing empirical studies and we provide original evidence that domestic portfolio investors are less likely to participate in the domestic stock market and hold more foreign equity, when investor protection is weak.
我们研究了投资者保护对均衡股票价格、收益和投资组合配置决策的影响。在我们的理论模型中,如果投资者保护薄弱,富有的投资者就有成为控股股东的动机。在均衡状态下,股票价格反映了控股股东和证券投资者双方的需求。因此,由于控股股东的高要求,弱公司治理股票的价格并不低,不足以充分贴现私人利益的提取。这产生了以下实证意义。首先,当投资者保护措施较弱时,股市的预期回报率应该较低。第二,在投资者保护较弱的国家,国内外投资者对股票市场的参与度应该较低。第三,来自投资者保护薄弱国家的证券投资者应持有相对较多的外国股权。第四,投资者保护薄弱的国家应获得相对较多的外国直接投资。我们表明这些影响与现有的实证研究是一致的,我们提供了原始证据,当投资者保护较弱时,国内证券投资者参与国内股票市场的可能性较低,并持有更多的外国股票。
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引用次数: 28
Investment and Value: A Neoclassical Benchmark 投资与价值:新古典主义基准
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/W13866
Janice C. Eberly, Sergio Rebelo, Nicolas Vincent
Which investment model best fits firm-level data? To answer this question we estimate alternative models using Compustat data. Surprisingly, the two best-performing specifications are based on Hayashi's (1982) model. This model's foremost implication, that Q is a sufficient statistic for determining a firm's investment decision, has been often rejected because cash-flow and lagged-investment effects are present in investment regressions. However, we find that these regression results are quite fragile and ineffectual for evaluating model performance. So, forget what investment regressions tell you. Models based on Hayashi (1982) provide a very good description of investment behaviour at the firm level.
哪种投资模型最适合公司层面的数据?为了回答这个问题,我们使用Compustat的数据来估计其他模型。令人惊讶的是,两个表现最好的规范都是基于Hayashi(1982)的模型。该模型最重要的含义是,Q是决定公司投资决策的充分统计量,但由于现金流和滞后投资效应存在于投资回归中,因此经常被拒绝。然而,我们发现这些回归结果非常脆弱,对于评估模型性能是无效的。所以,忘掉投资回归告诉你的吧。基于Hayashi(1982)的模型很好地描述了企业层面的投资行为。
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引用次数: 165
Energy Planning in the United States and Europe: A Portfolio-Based Approach 美国和欧洲的能源规划:基于投资组合的方法
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1105032
Paul S. Lowengrub, Spencer Yang
Traditional energy planning in Europe and the United States focuses on finding the least-cost generating alternative. This approach worked sufficiently well in a technological era marked by relative cost certainty, low rates of technological progress, technologically homogenous generating alternatives, and stable energy prices. However, today's electricity planner faces a diverse range of resource options and a dynamic, complex, and uncertain future. Attempting to identify least-cost alternatives in this dynamic and uncertain environment is virtually impossible. As a result, more appropriate techniques are required to find strategies that remain economical under a variety of uncertain future outcomes.Given the uncertain environment, it makes sense to shift electricity planning from its current emphasis on identifying the least-cost technologies to the evaluation of alternative electricity generating portfolios and strategies. The techniques for doing this are rooted in modern finance theory - in particular mean-variance portfolio theory. The mean-variance portfolio analysis proposed in this report exemplifies how portfolio costs and risks can be examined and incorporated into policy decisions about future generating resources.This paper applies portfolio-theory optimization concepts from the field of finance to produce an expository evaluation of the multiple regions in the United States and Europe. Although the results are expository, they help show how today's energy planners can assess the potential changes to a portfolio's risks and costs that result from adding renewable resources (such as wind, hydro, and biomass) that have their own individual risk and cost profiles. The resulting risks and costs of alternative combinations of assets will be quantified, and this allows those portfolios that provide the best combinations of costs and risks to be identified as efficient frontier. Conversely, for any given level of cost, there is an associated minimum-risk portfolio. Portfolio analysis allows for the consideration of risk preferences when choosing among portfolios, as well as for the examination of the trade-offs among various risks and costs.
欧洲和美国的传统能源规划侧重于寻找成本最低的发电替代方案。这种方法在一个以相对成本确定性、低技术进步率、技术上同质化的发电替代方案和稳定的能源价格为特征的技术时代非常有效。然而,今天的电力规划者面临着各种各样的资源选择和一个动态的、复杂的、不确定的未来。试图在这种动态和不确定的环境中确定成本最低的替代方案实际上是不可能的。因此,需要更合适的技术来寻找在各种不确定的未来结果下保持经济的策略。考虑到不确定的环境,将电力规划从目前强调确定成本最低的技术转向评估替代发电组合和战略是有意义的。这样做的技术根植于现代金融理论——尤其是均值方差投资组合理论。本报告中提出的均值方差投资组合分析举例说明了如何检查投资组合的成本和风险,并将其纳入有关未来发电资源的政策决策中。本文运用金融领域的投资组合理论优化概念,对美国和欧洲的多个地区进行了说明性评价。虽然结果是说明性的,但它们有助于展示今天的能源规划者如何评估由于增加可再生资源(如风能、水电和生物质能)而导致的投资组合风险和成本的潜在变化,这些可再生资源有自己的风险和成本概况。可选择的资产组合所产生的风险和成本将被量化,这允许那些提供成本和风险最佳组合的投资组合被确定为有效前沿。相反,对于任何给定的成本水平,都有一个相关的最小风险投资组合。投资组合分析允许在选择投资组合时考虑风险偏好,以及检查各种风险和成本之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction 不完善的中央银行沟通——信息与干扰
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451869224.001
Pär Österholm, Spencer Dale, Athanasios Orphanides
Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. It is shown that the value of communicating imperfect information is ambiguous. There is a risk that the central bank can distract the public; this means that the central bank may prefer to focus its communication policies on the information it knows most about. Indeed, conveying more certain information may improve the public's understanding to the extent that it "crowds out" a role for communicating imperfect information.
央行传达的很多信息要么嘈杂,要么不完善。本文考虑了在不完全知识和学习模型下中央银行沟通的潜在好处和局限性。结果表明,传递不完全信息的价值是模糊的。央行有可能分散公众的注意力;这意味着央行可能更愿意将其沟通政策的重点放在它最了解的信息上。的确,传达更多确定的信息可能会提高公众的理解,在某种程度上,它“排挤”了传递不完全信息的角色。
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引用次数: 100
Search Equilibrium with Migration: The Case of Poland 寻求移民均衡:波兰的案例
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1126259
K. Budnik
The EU enlargement has facilitated labour force movements between the former EU member countries and the accession countries. Foremost, the outflow of workers from the new member countries to countries which introduced open-door policy has magnified. The aim of the paper is to shed some light on the possible effects of reinforced emigration from Poland on its labour market. In particular, it focuses on the impact of the migration flows on wages. The wage equation derived from the search and matching model augmented with migration flows (emigration and the return migration) was estimated employing Bayesian inference. It allowed calculating an approximate magnitude of emigration of workers and describing the impact the labour movements should have had on the real wage in Poland. From 2002 to 2006 the number of temporary emigrants increased by roughly 4.5% of the Polish population whereas the resulting increase in the real wage was moderate and amounted to over 1%. The implied elasticity of wages to reduction of the workforce due to emigration between 2003 and 2006 was in the range of 0.2–0.3. Mediocre response of wages to emigration corresponds well with earlier studies on the impact of emigration on the source country wage rate. Yet, the explanation of the limited impact of emigration on wages lies in the adjustment of the demand for labour in the steady-state and substantial intensity of the return migration predominantly to employment found in the data.
欧盟扩大促进了前欧盟成员国与加入欧盟国家之间的劳动力流动。最重要的是,工人从新成员国流向实行开放政策的国家的现象扩大了。本文的目的是阐明波兰移民增加对其劳动力市场可能产生的影响。它特别关注移民流动对工资的影响。利用贝叶斯推理,利用迁移流(迁出和回流)增强的搜索匹配模型推导出工资方程。它可以计算出工人移民的大致规模,并描述劳工运动对波兰实际工资的影响。从2002年到2006年,临时移民的数量大约增加了波兰人口的4.5%,而实际工资的增长是温和的,总计超过1%。2003年至2006年期间,由于移民导致的劳动力减少,隐含的工资弹性在0.2-0.3之间。工资对移民的一般反应与早期关于移民对来源国工资率影响的研究相吻合。然而,对移民对工资的有限影响的解释在于数据中发现的稳定状态下劳动力需求的调整和主要是就业的回归移民的实质性强度。
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引用次数: 11
Human Capital and Innovation 人力资本与创新
Pub Date : 2008-02-28 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1280-4_ch1
C. Popescu, L. Diaconu
Human capital, generally seen as a set of knowledge, abilities and skills of the individuals, used in the activities that stimulate economic growth and development, was considered to be a stimulus of the innovation process. In the economic literature, it was mentioned the existence of three types of human capital: firm-specific human capital, industry-specific human capital and individual-specific human capital. Because the first two types of human capital refer to the abilities and knowledge valuable only within a specific firm or industry, they have a limited impact on the innovative activity within a region or state. In contrast with these two, individual-specific human capital implies knowledge that is applicable to a large range of firms and industries. Considering that individuals abilities and skills that can be improved and so they can change the way they act, human capital is seen to be an important source of competitive advantage to individuals, organizations and even to societies, having a huge capacity of innovation induction.
人力资本,一般被视为个人的一套知识、能力和技能,用于刺激经济增长和发展的活动,被认为是创新过程的一种刺激。在经济学文献中,提到了三种类型的人力资本的存在:企业特有的人力资本、行业特有的人力资本和个人特有的人力资本。由于前两种类型的人力资本是指仅在特定企业或行业内有价值的能力和知识,因此它们对一个地区或国家内的创新活动的影响有限。与这两者相比,个人特有的人力资本意味着适用于大范围公司和行业的知识。考虑到个人的能力和技能可以提高,因此他们可以改变他们的行为方式,人力资本被视为个人,组织甚至社会竞争优势的重要来源,具有巨大的创新诱导能力。
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引用次数: 7
On Turning to Market Timing: A Binomial Approximation 转向市场时机:二项近似
Pub Date : 2008-02-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1078626
Benjamin L. Cotton
Utilizing simple binomial modeling techniques, I consider the potential impact of technical analysis on expected returns, expected volatility, and higher moment risk. While limited as a practical evaluation tool, this approach allows for relatively intuitive observations relevant to the ongoing discourse regarding the efficacy of market timing. I demonstrate the impact that timeframe reference can have on the perception of risk, showing that market timing can resemble an option strategy in the short-run while it is more accurately described as an allocation shift away from the risky asset. Absent the presence of serial autocorrelation and over any time horizon, this allocation shift is highly inefficient as it can magnify volatility (measured as variance or standard deviation) relative to a return equivalent buy-and-hold allocation to the risky asset and provides inferior downside protection as well. However, market-timing's shortcomings as a down-side-protection strategy are likely to be masked over shorter observations periods, particularly if the analysis omits an apples-to-apple comparison to a return equivalent buy-and-hold strategy. Serial autocorrelation improves the outlook for market timing in terms of return, volatility and down-side risk, but the level required to reach a risk-adjusted break-even is likely to be higher than has been present in the empirical record. I utilize techniques which are admittedly elementary in order to develop and document the key observations in way that is hopefully more accessible to a specific target audience - students in early statistics / pre-calculus courses with an interest in continued studies in finance and investing and investors with less exposure to more formal conventions of notation. Advanced students/practitioners will find this treatment a bit unorthodox, but hopefully interesting nonetheless.
利用简单的二项式建模技术,我考虑了技术分析对预期收益、预期波动率和更高时刻风险的潜在影响。虽然作为一种实用的评估工具有限,但这种方法允许相对直观的观察与正在进行的关于市场时机有效性的论述相关。我展示了时间框架参考对风险感知的影响,表明市场时机在短期内类似于期权策略,而更准确地描述为从风险资产转移的配置。在没有序列自相关的情况下,在任何时间范围内,这种配置转移都是非常低效的,因为它会放大相对于回报相等的买入并持有风险资产配置的波动性(以方差或标准差衡量),并提供较差的下行保护。然而,市场择时作为一种下行保护策略的缺点可能会在较短的观察期内被掩盖,特别是如果分析忽略了与回报相当的买入并持有策略的苹果与苹果之间的比较。序列自相关改善了市场时机在回报、波动性和下行风险方面的前景,但达到风险调整盈亏平衡所需的水平可能高于经验记录中存在的水平。我使用了公认的基本技术,以开发和记录关键观察结果的方式,希望更容易被特定的目标受众——对继续学习金融和投资感兴趣的早期统计学/微积分预科课程的学生,以及较少接触更正式的符号惯例的投资者——所接受。高级学生/从业者会发现这种治疗有点不正统,但希望还是有趣的。
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引用次数: 0
VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation VAR分析与大缓和
Pub Date : 2008-02-01 DOI: 10.1257/AER.99.4.1636
Luca Benati, Paolo Surico
Most analyses of the US Great Moderation are based on structural VARs, and point toward good luck as the main explanation for the recent macroeconomic stability. Based on an estimated New-Keynesian model where the only source of change is the move from passive to active monetary policy, we show that (i) the theoretical VAR innovation variances for all series decrease across regimes; (ii) VAR-based counterfactuals assign a minor role to improved policy; and (iii) VAR impulse-response functions to a monetary shock exhibit little variation across regimes. Our analysis suggests that existing VAR evidence is also compatible with the "good policy" hypothesis. (JEL C32, C52, E13, E52, N12)
对美国“大缓和”(Great Moderation)的大多数分析都基于结构性var,并指出好运是近期宏观经济稳定的主要原因。基于一个估计的新凯恩斯模型,其中唯一的变化来源是从被动货币政策到主动货币政策的转变,我们表明:(i)所有系列的理论VAR创新方差在制度中减小;基于var的反事实对改进政策的作用不大;(iii) VAR对货币冲击的脉冲响应函数在不同制度下变化不大。我们的分析表明,现有的VAR证据也符合“好政策”假设。(jel c32, c52, e13, e52, n12)
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引用次数: 337
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Macroeconomics eJournal
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