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Factors Associated with Vaccine Breakthrough Incidence among Health Care Workers Vaccinated with Inactivated SARS-CoV2 Vaccine (CoronaVac). 接种SARS-CoV2灭活疫苗(CoronaVac)的医护人员疫苗突破发生率的相关因素
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.86
Muhammad Anshory, Cesarius Singgih Wahono, Mirza Zaka Pratama, Perdana Aditya Rahman, Aditya Satriya Nugraha, Ayu Sekarani

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) run a high risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The HCWs are prone to the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the hospital despite being fully vaccinated. The present study aimed to address the factors associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine breakthrough among HCWs.

Study design: A prospective cohort study.

Methods: Participants were 184 HCWs receiving two doses of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac, Sinovac Life Science). All participants were followed for six months. Confirmed COVID-19 was defined as positive SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Before undergoing RT-PCR, questionnaires were used to obtain information on demographic characteristics, profession, contact with COVID-19 cases, personal protective equipment (PPE), health protocols adherence, exercise, and nutritional habits.

Results: A number of 57 (31%) participants were COVID-19 positive. Close contact with COVID-19 cases (adjusted RR 6.82, 95% CI: 1.97, 47.98, P = 0.044), being a resident doctor (adjusted RR 4.72, 95% CI: 1.11, 20.11, P = 0.036), improper mask-wearing (adjusted RR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.15, 4.85, P = 0.019), and lower frequency of eating fruit and vegetables (adjusted RR 2.73, 95% CI: 1.34, 5.57, P = 0.006) increased the risk of vaccine breakthrough. Compared to single surgical masks, KN95 and N95 significantly reduced the risk of COVID-19 (adjusted RR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.97, P = 0.045 and adjusted RR 0.25, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.87, P = 0.029), respectively.

Conclusion: As evidenced by the obtained results, being a resident doctor, close contact with confirmed COVID-19 cases, health protocol incompliance, as well as the lower frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption were associated with the risk of vaccine breakthrough among HCWs. Appropriate strategies are needed to prevent the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs.

背景:卫生保健工作者(HCWs)是感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2)的高危人群。医护人员虽然接种了全面疫苗,但在医院仍容易感染SARS-CoV-2。本研究旨在探讨医护人员在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)疫苗方面取得突破的相关因素。研究设计:前瞻性队列研究。方法:184名卫生保健工作者接种了两剂SARS-CoV-2灭活疫苗(CoronaVac, Sinovac生命科学)。所有参与者都被跟踪了六个月。逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)将确诊COVID-19定义为SARS-CoV-2阳性。在进行RT-PCR之前,使用调查问卷获取人口统计学特征、职业、与COVID-19病例的接触、个人防护装备(PPE)、卫生协议遵守情况、运动和营养习惯等信息。结果:57名(31%)参与者呈COVID-19阳性。与COVID-19病例密切接触(调整后的RR为6.82,95% CI为1.97,47.98,P = 0.044)、住院医师身份(调整后的RR为4.72,95% CI为1.11,20.11,P = 0.036)、不正确佩戴口罩(调整后的RR为2.36,95% CI为1.15,4.85,P = 0.019)、较少食用水果和蔬菜(调整后的RR为2.73,95% CI为1.34,5.57,P = 0.006)增加了疫苗突破的风险。与单一外科口罩相比,KN95和N95显著降低了COVID-19的风险(调整后的RR分别为0.27,95% CI为0.07,0.97,P = 0.045;调整后的RR为0.25,95% CI为0.07,0.87,P = 0.029)。结论:研究结果表明,住院医师身份、与新冠肺炎确诊病例的密切接触、不遵守卫生规程、果蔬消费频次较低与卫生工作者疫苗突破风险相关。需要采取适当的策略来预防卫生工作者感染SARS-CoV-2的风险。
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引用次数: 2
Evaluation of Survival Rate and Associated Factors in Patients with Cervical Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study. 宫颈癌患者生存率及相关因素评估:一项回顾性队列研究。
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.87
Fatemeh-Sadat Tabatabaei, Arefeh Saeedian, Amirali Azimi, Kasra Kolahdouzan, Ebrahim Esmati, Afsaneh Maddah Safaei

Background: Cervical cancer, the most common gynecological cancer, is a matter of concern, especially in developing countries. The present study investigates survival rates, associated factors, and post-treatment follow-up status in cervical cancer patients.

Study design: A retrospective cohort study.

Methods: This study was conducted on 187 patients referred to an academic referral cancer center in Iran from 2014-2020. Overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were evaluated using Kaplan Meyer analysis. The event was defined as recurrence, metastasis, or death.

Results: The patients came for post-treatment visits for a median of 36 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 18-51). The median OS and EFS were 24 and 18 months, respectively. The 1- and 3- year OS rates were 90% and 72%, respectively. The 1- and 3- year EFS rates were 76% and 61%, respectively. Stage ≥ III (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 6.5, P < 0.001) and tumor size > 4 cm (HR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 4.9, P = 0.006) predicted lower OS. The most common histopathology was squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (71.1%) with non-significant higher 3- year OS (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.33, 1.16, P = 0.13). No significant difference in OS was found between adjuvant and definitive radiotherapy in both early and advance-staged patients (Log-rank = 0.7 P = 0.4, log-rank = 1.6, P = 0.2, respectively).

Conclusion: As evidenced by the obtained results, the survival of patients was lower compared to that in developed countries. Higher stage and tumor size led to shorter survival. The histopathology and type of treatment in comparable stages did not have any significant impact on survival.

背景:宫颈癌是最常见的妇科癌症,是一个令人关注的问题,特别是在发展中国家。本研究调查宫颈癌患者的生存率、相关因素及治疗后随访情况。研究设计:回顾性队列研究。方法:本研究对2014-2020年在伊朗某学术转诊癌症中心转诊的187例患者进行研究。采用Kaplan Meyer分析评估总生存期(OS)和无事件生存期(EFS)。该事件被定义为复发、转移或死亡。结果:患者治疗后随访的中位时间为36个月(四分位数间距[IQR]: 18-51)。中位OS和EFS分别为24和18个月。1年和3年的总生存率分别为90%和72%。1年和3年的EFS率分别为76%和61%。≥III期(风险比[HR]: 3.1, 95%可信区间[CI]: 1.5, 6.5, P <0.001)和肿瘤大小>4 cm (HR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 4.9, P = 0.006)预测较低的OS。最常见的组织病理学为鳞状细胞癌(SCC)(71.1%), 3年OS无显著升高(HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.33, 1.16, P = 0.13)。早期和晚期患者的辅助放疗与最终放疗的OS无显著差异(Log-rank = 0.7 P = 0.4, Log-rank = 1.6, P = 0.2)。结论:所获得的结果表明,与发达国家相比,患者的生存率较低。较高的分期和肿瘤大小导致较短的生存期。在可比较的分期中,组织病理学和治疗类型对生存没有任何显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Time to Kidneys Failure Modeling in the Patients at Adama Hospital Medical College: Application of Copula Model. Adama医院医学院患者肾衰时间建模:Copula模型的应用。
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.84
Firomsa Shewa, Selamawit Endale, Gurmessa Nugussu, Jaleta Abdisa, Ketema Zerihun, Akalu Banbeta

Background: Kidney failure is a common public health problem around the world. The vast majority of kidney failure cases in Sub-Saharan African nations, including Ethiopia, go undetected and untreated, resulting in practically certain mortality cases. This study was aimed primarily to model the time to (right and left) kidneys failure in the patients at Adama Hospital Medical College using the copula model.

Study design: A retrospective cohort study.

Methods: The copula model was used to examine join time to the right and left kidneys failure in the patients by specifying the dependence between the failure times. We employed Weibull, Gompertz, and Log-logistic marginal baseline distributions with Clayton, Gumbel, and Joe Archimedean copula families.

Results: This research comprised a total of 431 patients, out of which, 170 (39.4%) of the total patients failed at least one kidney during the follow-up period. Factors such as sex, age, family history of kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and obesity were found to be the most predictive variables for kidney failure in the patients. There was a 41 percent correlation between the patients' time to the right and left kidneys failure.

Conclusion: The patients' kidney failure risk factors included being a male, older adult, obese, hypertensive, diabetic and also having a family history of kidney disease. The dependence between the patient's time to the right and left kidneys failure was strong. The best statistical model for describing the kidney failure datasets was the log-logistic-Clayton Archimedean copula model.

背景:肾衰竭是世界范围内常见的公共卫生问题。在包括埃塞俄比亚在内的撒哈拉以南非洲国家,绝大多数肾衰竭病例没有被发现和治疗,导致几乎肯定的死亡病例。本研究的主要目的是利用copula模型对Adama医院医学院患者发生左、右肾衰竭的时间进行建模。研究设计:回顾性队列研究。方法:采用copula模型,通过确定左、右肾衰竭时间之间的依赖关系,考察左、右肾衰竭的发生时间。我们采用Weibull, Gompertz和Log-logistic边际基线分布与Clayton, Gumbel和Joe Archimedean copula家族。结果:本研究共纳入431例患者,其中170例(39.4%)患者在随访期间至少有一个肾脏衰竭。性别、年龄、肾脏疾病家族史、糖尿病、高血压和肥胖等因素被发现是患者肾衰竭最具预测性的变量。患者到左肾衰竭的时间与右肾衰竭的时间有41%的相关性。结论:男性、老年人、肥胖、高血压、糖尿病及有肾脏疾病家族史是患者肾衰竭的危险因素。患者发生左肾和右肾衰竭的时间之间有很强的依赖性。描述肾衰竭数据集的最佳统计模型是logistic- logistic- clayton阿基米德copula模型。
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引用次数: 2
Risk Assessment of Silicosis and Lung Cancer Mortality associated with Occupational Exposure to Crystalline Silica in Iran. 伊朗职业暴露于结晶二氧化硅相关的矽肺病和肺癌死亡率风险评估。
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.85
Nafiseh Nasirzadeh, Zahra Soltanpour, Yousef Mohammadian, Farough Mohammadian

Background: Exposure to crystalline silica has long been identified to be associated with lung diseases. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the risk of silicosis and lung cancer associated with occupational exposure to crystalline silica in Iran.

Study design: It is a systematic review study.

Methods: Different databases were searched, and the Cochrane method was used for the systematic review. Thereafter, cumulative exposure to crystalline silica (mg/m3-y) was calculated in every industry. The relative risk of death from silicosis was performed using Mannetje's method. Based on the geometric mean of exposure, the lung cancer risk of exposure to crystalline silica was also calculated.

Results: As evidenced by the results, worker's exposure to silica ranged from a geometric mean of 0.0212- 0.2689 mg/m3 (Recommended standard by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) was 0.025 mg/m3), which is generally higher than the occupational exposure limit recommended by National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), ACGIH, and occupational exposure limits. The relative risk of silicosis was in the range of 1 to 14 per 1000 people, and the risk of lung cancer in workers ranged from 13-137 per 1000 people.

Conclusion: Since workers are at considerable risk of cancer due to exposure to silica in Iran, exposure control programs need to be implemented in workplaces to decrease the concentration of silica.

背景:长期以来,人们一直认为接触结晶二氧化硅与肺部疾病有关。因此,本研究旨在评估与伊朗职业暴露于结晶二氧化硅相关的矽肺和肺癌风险。研究设计:本研究为系统回顾性研究。方法:检索不同数据库,采用Cochrane法进行系统评价。此后,计算了每个行业中结晶二氧化硅的累积暴露量(mg/m3-y)。采用Mannetje方法测定矽肺的相对死亡风险。根据暴露的几何平均值,还计算了结晶二氧化硅暴露的肺癌风险。结果:结果表明,工人二氧化硅暴露量的几何平均值为0.0212 ~ 0.2689 mg/m3(美国政府工业卫生会议(ACGIH)推荐标准为0.025 mg/m3),普遍高于美国国家职业安全与卫生研究所(NIOSH)、ACGIH推荐的职业暴露限值和职业暴露限值。矽肺病的相对危险度在每1000人中1 - 14人之间,工人患肺癌的危险度在每1000人中13-137人之间。结论:由于工人在伊朗暴露于二氧化硅有相当大的癌症风险,因此需要在工作场所实施暴露控制计划,以降低二氧化硅的浓度。
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引用次数: 2
Monkeypox Virus Infection: A Global Warning for the Possible Next Pandemic. 猴痘病毒感染:可能的下一次大流行的全球警告。
IF 1.4 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.80
Jalal Poorolajal
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引用次数: 0
Bivariate Survival Copula Analysis of Glaucoma Patients during Blindness: Glaucoma Cases at Alert Hospital in Addis Ababa City of Ethiopia. 青光眼患者失明期间的双变量生存关联分析:埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴市Alert医院青光眼病例
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.82
Firomsa Shewa Gari, Gurmessa Nugussu Gelcho

Background: Glaucoma is a worldwide problem that causes vision loss and even blindness, with a prevalence rate ranging from 1.9% to 15%. In Ethiopia, glaucoma is the fifth cause of blindness. This study aimed to explore the dependence between blindness of the right and the left eyes of glaucoma patients and assess the effects of the covariates under the dependence structure.

Study design: A retrospective cohort study.

Methods: The study population included the glaucoma patients at Alert hospital from January 1, 2018, to December 30, 2021. The copula model was used to estimate the time to the blindness of the right and the left eyes of the glaucoma patients by specifying the dependence between the event times.

Results: Out of 537 glaucoma patients, 224 (41.71%) became blind at least in one eye during the follow-up period. The results of the Clayton copula model revealed that factors, such as age, residence, diabetes mellitus, stage of glaucoma, and hypertension are considered the most prognostic factors for blindness in glaucoma patients. The findings also revealed that there was a strong dependence between the time to the blindness of the right and the left eyes in the glaucoma patients (τ = 0.43).

Conclusion: Based on the obtained results, high age, urban residence, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and higher stage of glaucoma were factors associated with time to the blindness in the glaucoma patients. There was also a dependence between the right and the left eyes of the glaucoma patients. The results revealed that the Clayton Archimedean copula model was the best statistical model for accurate description of glaucoma patients' datasets.

背景:青光眼是一种世界性的疾病,可导致视力下降甚至失明,患病率为1.9%至15%。在埃塞俄比亚,青光眼是第五大致盲原因。本研究旨在探讨青光眼患者左右眼失明之间的依赖关系,并评估依赖结构下协变量的影响。研究设计:回顾性队列研究。方法:研究人群包括2018年1月1日至2021年12月30日在Alert医院就诊的青光眼患者。通过指定事件时间之间的依赖关系,采用copula模型估计青光眼患者左右眼失明所需的时间。结果:537例青光眼患者中,224例(41.71%)在随访期间出现单眼以上失明。Clayton copula模型结果显示,年龄、居住地、糖尿病、青光眼分期、高血压等因素被认为是青光眼患者失明的最主要预后因素。青光眼患者右眼和左眼失明的时间之间存在很强的依赖性(τ = 0.43)。结论:年龄大、居住在城市、高血压、糖尿病、青光眼分期高是青光眼患者致盲的时间相关因素。青光眼患者的左右眼也存在依赖关系。结果表明,克莱顿阿基米德copula模型是准确描述青光眼患者数据集的最佳统计模型。
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引用次数: 1
Modeling Time to Blindness of Glaucoma Patients: A Case Study at Jimma University Medical Center. 青光眼患者致盲时间建模:以吉马大学医学中心为例。
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.83
Meskerem Getachew Gebremariam, Reta Habtamu Bacha, Demeke Kifle Demissie, Kibrealem Sisay Wolde, Kenenisa Tadesse Dame, Geremew Muleta Akessa

Background: Glaucoma is a significant public health problem due to its substantial increase in the projected number of glaucoma cases. In Ethiopia, glaucoma accounts for 5.2% of irreversible blindness and is the fifth main cause of blindness. The main objective of this study was to modeling time to blindness of left and right eyes of glaucoma patients.

Study design: An institution-based retrospective cohort study.

Methods: This study was conducted among 315 glaucoma patients admitted to the Ophthalmology Department of Jimma University Medical Center (JUMC), Southwest Ethiopia, from January 1, 2016, to August 30, 2020. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and semiparametric and parametric copula models were applied to identify factors that affect time to the blindness in glaucoma patients and the dependence between time to the blindness of the left and right eyes, respectively. An Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to select the best non-nested model.

Results: In total, 211 (66.9%) out of 315 glaucoma patients were blind, whereas 104 (33.1%) patients were censored. The median time to the blindness of the left and right eyes was determined to be 12 months. The result suggested that the risk of the blindness in male patients was 1.005 (P = 0.01) times higher than that in female patients, and the risk of the blindness in patients who had early, moderate, and advanced glaucoma was estimated to be 0.582 (P = 0.002), 0.485 (P = 0.001) and 0.887 (P = 0.003) times less than that in the patients with absolute glaucoma, respectively.

Conclusions: Age, place of residence, gender, type of medication, diabetes disease, stage of glaucoma, duration of treatment, intraocular pressure (IOP), and cup-disk ratio were significantly associated with and affected by the time to the blindness of left and right eyes in glaucoma patients. Awareness should be given to the community to reduce the burden of glaucoma.

背景:青光眼是一个重要的公共卫生问题,因为它在青光眼病例的预计数量大幅增加。在埃塞俄比亚,青光眼占不可逆失明的5.2%,是致盲的第五大主要原因。本研究的主要目的是模拟青光眼患者左右眼的致盲时间。研究设计:一项基于机构的回顾性队列研究。方法:选取2016年1月1日至2020年8月30日在埃塞俄比亚西南部吉马大学医学中心(JUMC)眼科收治的315例青光眼患者为研究对象。应用Kaplan-Meier生存分析和半参数和参数copula模型分别确定影响青光眼患者失明时间的因素以及左眼和右眼失明时间之间的依赖关系。采用赤池信息准则(Akaike information criterion, AIC)选择最佳非嵌套模型。结果:315例青光眼患者盲211例(66.9%),检出104例(33.1%)。左右眼失明的中位时间为12个月。结果表明,男性患者的致盲风险是女性患者的1.005 (P = 0.01)倍,早期、中度、晚期青光眼患者的致盲风险分别是绝对型青光眼患者的0.582 (P = 0.002)、0.485 (P = 0.001)和0.887 (P = 0.003)倍。结论:青光眼患者的年龄、居住地、性别、用药类型、糖尿病、青光眼分期、治疗时间、眼压(IOP)、杯盘比与左右眼失明时间有显著相关并受其影响。应提高社会意识,减轻青光眼的负担。
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引用次数: 0
Ethics and Effectiveness of US COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates and Vaccination Passports: A Review. 美国COVID-19疫苗授权和疫苗接种护照的伦理和有效性:综述
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.81
Alexa G Canning, Kyleigh E Watson, Katelyn E McCreedy, John O Olawepo

Background: The highest-income countries procured 50 times as many COVID-19 vaccines as low-income countries, a global health inequity that resulted in only 4.6% of the poorest 5th of the world receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. High-income countries are considering vaccine mandates and passports to contain the spread of COVID-19. This study is a curated discourse aimed at examining how vaccine mandates and passports may impact global vaccine equity from an ethics perspective.

Study design: Narrative review adapted for a debate.

Methods: In November 2021, we conducted a review of studies examining global vaccine mandates for an upper-level global health course at Northeastern University, Boston, United States (U.S.). In total, 19 upper-level students, one research assistant, and one instructor participated in the data collection, analysis, and discussion.

Results: The review showed vaccine mandates are ethical and effective if autonomy-centered alternatives like soft mandates are first exhausted. Unwarranted stringent public health measures degrade public trust. In the U.S. alone, COVID-19-related deaths hovered above 300 000 before COVID-19 vaccination began in mid-December 2020. Since then, the number of COVID-19 deaths more than doubled, despite the wide availability of the vaccine. For many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) vaccines are not available or easily accessible. Global collaboration to facilitate vaccine availability in LMICs should be a priority.

Conclusions: It is essential to get as many people as possible vaccinated to return to some normality. However, vaccine mandates and passports need to be used only sparingly, especially when other options have been exhausted.

背景:收入最高的国家采购的COVID-19疫苗数量是低收入国家的50倍,全球卫生不平等导致世界上最贫穷的五分之一人口中只有4.6%获得了COVID-19疫苗。高收入国家正在考虑疫苗授权和护照,以遏制COVID-19的传播。本研究是一篇精心策划的论述,旨在从伦理角度审视疫苗授权和护照如何影响全球疫苗公平。研究设计:辩论式叙述性回顾。方法:2021年11月,我们对美国波士顿东北大学(U.S.)高级全球卫生课程的全球疫苗授权研究进行了审查。总共有19名高年级学生、1名研究助理和1名讲师参与了数据的收集、分析和讨论。结果:审查表明,如果首先用尽以自主为中心的替代方案,如软授权,疫苗授权是道德和有效的。没有根据的严格公共卫生措施降低了公众的信任。仅在美国,在2020年12月中旬开始接种COVID-19疫苗之前,与COVID-19相关的死亡人数就徘徊在30万以上。自那时以来,尽管疫苗广泛可用,但COVID-19死亡人数增加了一倍多。对于许多低收入和中等收入国家来说,疫苗无法获得或不易获得。促进中低收入国家疫苗供应的全球合作应成为优先事项。结论:让尽可能多的人接种疫苗以恢复一些正常是至关重要的。然而,疫苗授权和护照只需要有节制地使用,特别是在其他选择已经用尽的情况下。
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引用次数: 3
Relationship of religion with suicidal ideation, suicide plan, suicide attempt, and suicide death: a meta-analysis. 宗教与自杀意念、自杀计划、自杀企图及自杀死亡的关系:一项元分析。
IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.72
Jalal Poorolajal, Mahmoud Goudarzi, Fatemeh Gohari-Ensaf, Nahid Darvishi

Background: Suicide is a significant public health problem and one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The effect of religion on suicidal behaviors (i.e., ideation, plan, attempt, and death) is an important issue worthy of consideration.

Methods: Major electronic databases, including MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Scopus, were searched for the articles published until 26 April 2021. Reference lists were also screened. Observational studies addressing the associations between religion and suicidal behaviors were also examined. Between-study heterogeneity was investigated using the χ2, τ2, and I2 statistics. The probability of publication bias was explored using the Begg and Egger tests, as well as trim-and-fill analysis. The effect size was expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a random-effects model.

Results: Out of 11 389 identified studies, 63 articles were eligible, involving 8,053,697 participants. There was an inverse association between religion and suicidal ideation OR  =  0.83 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.88; P < 0.001), suicidal plan OR  =  0.93 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.04; P =  0.200), suicide attempt OR  =  0.84 (95% CI: 0.79, 0.89; P < 0.001), and completed suicide OR  =  0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.72; P =  0.006). There was a no evidence of publication bias.

Conclusions: The results of this meta-analysis support the notion that religion can play a protective role against suicidal behaviors. Nonetheless, the effect of religion on suicidal behaviors varies across countries with different religions and cultures. Although this association does not necessarily imply causation, an awareness of the relationship between religion and suicide risk can be of great help in suicide prevention policies and programs.

背景:自杀是一个重大的公共卫生问题,也是全世界死亡的主要原因之一。宗教对自杀行为(即,自杀的构思、计划、企图和死亡)的影响是一个值得考虑的重要问题。方法:检索截至2021年4月26日发表的论文,检索MEDLINE、Web of Science、Scopus等主要电子数据库。还筛选了参考名单。观察性研究解决宗教和自杀行为之间的联系也进行了检查。采用χ2、τ2和I2统计分析研究间异质性。发表偏倚的可能性是通过Begg和Egger检验以及补齐分析来探讨的。使用随机效应模型,效应量以比值比(OR)和95%置信区间(ci)表示。结果:在11389项确定的研究中,63篇文章符合条件,涉及8,053,697名参与者。宗教信仰与自杀意念呈负相关OR = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.88;P & lt; 0.001),自杀计划或= 0.93(95%置信区间CI: 0.83, 1.04;P = 0.200),企图自杀或= 0.84(95%置信区间CI: 0.79, 0.89;P < 0.001),完成自杀OR = 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.72;P = 0.006)。没有证据表明存在发表偏倚。结论:本荟萃分析的结果支持了宗教可以对自杀行为起到保护作用的观点。然而,宗教对自杀行为的影响在不同宗教和文化的国家有所不同。虽然这种联系并不一定意味着因果关系,但意识到宗教与自杀风险之间的关系对自杀预防政策和计划有很大帮助。
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引用次数: 5
Epidemiology and time series analysis of human brucellosis in Tebessa province, Algeria, from 2000 to 2020. 2000 至 2020 年阿尔及利亚泰贝萨省人类布鲁氏菌病的流行病学和时间序列分析。
IF 1.4 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2022-03-02 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2022.79
Seif Eddine Akermi, Mohamed L'Hadj, Schehrazad Selmane

Background: Brucellosis runs rampant endemically with sporadic outbreaks in Algeria. The present study aimed to provide insights into the epidemiology of brucellosis and compare the performance of some prediction models using surveillance data from Tebessa province, Algeria.

Study design: A retrospective study.

Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregressive (NNAR), and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were developed to predict monthly brucellosis notifications. The prediction performance of these models was compared using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Results: Overall, 13 670 human brucellosis cases were notified in Tebessa province from 2000-2020 with a male-to-female ratio of 1.3. The most affected age group was 15-44 years (56.2%). The cases were reported throughout the year with manifest seasonality. The annual notification rate ranged from 30.9 (2013) to 246.7 (2005) per 100 000 inhabitants. The disease was not evenly distributed, rather spatial and temporal variability was observed. The SARIMA (2,1,3) (1,1,1)12, NNAR (12,1,6)12, and SARIMA (2,0,2) (1,1,0)12-NNAR (5,1,4)12 were selected as the best-fitting models. The RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the SARIMA and SARIMA-NNAR models were by far lower than those of the NNAR model. Moreover, the SARIMA-NNNAR hybrid model achieved a slightly better prediction accuracy for 2020 than the SARIMA model.

Conclusion: As evidenced by the obtained results, both SARIMA and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models are suitable to predict human brucellosis cases with high accuracy. Reasonable predictions, along with mapping brucellosis incidence, could be of great help to veterinary and health policymakers in the development of informed, effective, and targeted policies, as well as timely interventions.

背景:布鲁氏菌病在阿尔及利亚猖獗流行,时有爆发。本研究旨在深入了解布鲁氏菌病的流行病学,并利用阿尔及利亚泰贝萨省的监测数据比较一些预测模型的性能:研究设计:回顾性研究:开发了季节自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)、神经网络自回归(NNAR)和SARIMA-NNAR混合模型来预测布鲁氏菌病的月度通报。使用均方根误差 (RMSE)、平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 比较了这些模型的预测性能:2000-2020年期间,特贝萨省共通报了13 670例人类布鲁氏菌病病例,男女比例为1.3。受影响最大的年龄组为 15-44 岁(56.2%)。病例全年报告,具有明显的季节性。年通报率为每 10 万居民 30.9 例(2013 年)至 246.7 例(2005 年)。该疾病的分布并不均匀,而是存在时空变异。SARIMA (2,1,3) (1,1,1)12, NNAR (12,1,6)12 和 SARIMA (2,0,2) (1,1,0)12-NNAR (5,1,4)12 被选为最佳拟合模型。SARIMA 模型和 SARIMA-NNAR 模型的 RMSE、MAE 和 MAPE 远远低于 NNAR 模型。此外,SARIMA-NNAR 混合模型对 2020 年的预测准确率略高于 SARIMA 模型:从获得的结果来看,SARIMA 模型和 SARIMA-NNAR 混合模型都适用于高精度预测人类布鲁氏菌病病例。合理的预测结果以及布鲁氏菌病发病率分布图可极大地帮助兽医和卫生决策者制定知情、有效和有针对性的政策,并及时采取干预措施。
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