Journal of research in health sciences最新文献_第5页

Multiple Substance Use Patterns and Its Relationship with Imprisonment in a High-Risk Group of Iranian Adults 伊朗成人高危人群中多种物质使用模式及其与监禁的关系

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.125

Jalal Ale-Ebrahim, Sima Afrashteh, Leila Janani, Seyed Ahmad Seyed Alinaghi, Seyed Abbas Motevalian, Arezoo Kasavandi, Mahdi Sedgh Azar, Mansour Sajadipour, Behnam Farhoudi, Abbas Abbasi-Ghahramanloo

Background: Substance use is recognized as an important factor associated with many diseases and premature deaths and the main risk factor for disability worldwide. This study aims to identify subgroups of substance use in adults and detect the effect of imprisonment on the membership of participants in latent classes of substance use. Study Design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: This study was performed on 930 adult people who were referred to behavioral health counseling centers in Tehran province. All participants completed some checklists and questionnaires. Data analysis was performed using chi-square, Fisher’s exact test, and latent class analysis (LCA). Results: Four latent classes were identified, including non-users (58%), cigarette smokers (11.6%), users of low stigma substances (27.4%), and drug users (3.1%). After adjusting for other studied variables, having a history of imprisonment increased the odds of membership in the cigarette smoker class (Odds ratio [OR]=5.82, 95%, confidence interval [CI]: 3.19-10.63) and drug user class (OR=53.59, 95% CI: 18.00- 159.52) compared to non-user class. Among all participants, 84 (9.0%) had a history of imprisonment. Conclusion: Results from the present study indicate that 30.5% of the participants fell under the user of the low-stigma substance or drug user group. Focusing on increasing prisoner’s knowledge of the dangers of using different substances and considering various programs for prisoners’ leisure time may help reduce substance use prevalence.

背景:在世界范围内，物质使用被认为是与许多疾病和过早死亡相关的一个重要因素，也是导致残疾的主要风险因素。本研究旨在确定成人物质使用的亚组，并检测监禁对潜在物质使用类别参与者成员的影响。研究设计:横断面研究。方法:本研究对德黑兰省行为健康咨询中心的930名成年人进行了研究。所有参与者都完成了一些核对表和问卷。数据分析采用卡方、Fisher精确检验和潜在类分析(LCA)。结果:确定了四个潜在类别，包括非使用者(58%)、吸烟者(11.6%)、低污名物质使用者(27.4%)和吸毒者(3.1%)。在对其他研究变量进行调整后，与非吸毒者相比，有入狱史的人加入吸烟者类别(比值比[OR]=5.82, 95%，置信区间[CI]: 3.19-10.63)和吸毒者类别(OR=53.59, 95% CI: 18.00- 159.52)的几率增加。在所有参与者中，84人(9.0%)有监禁史。结论:本研究结果表明，30.5%的被调查者属于低耻感物质或药物使用者群体。注重提高囚犯对使用不同物质的危险性的认识，并考虑为囚犯的闲暇时间安排各种活动，可能有助于减少物质使用的流行程度。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of Sleep Quality and Related Factors in Community-Dwelling Adults: Ardakan Cohort Study on Aging (ACSA) 社区居民睡眠质量及相关因素评价:ardarkan队列衰老研究(ACSA)

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.126

Ahmad Delbari, Fatemeh Ghavidel, Mohammad Bidkhori, Mohammad Saatchi, Yadollah Abolfathi Momtaz, Sara Efati, Elham Hooshmand

Background: Sleep is a necessary physiological process that affects health. The current study aimed to evaluate sleep quality (SQ) and the related factors in Iranian community-dwelling adults. Study Design: A cross-sectional study. Method: Population-based cross-sectional data from the first wave of the Ardakan cohort study on aging (ACSA) were analyzed. The analytical sample consisted of 5197 community-dwelling adults aged≥50. All data were collected by trained staff. Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) scores were used to measure SQ. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify predictors of SQ. Results: The mean age of the participants was 62.22±7.7 years, and 51.8% were female. About threequarters of them (76.36%) were found to have poor SQ (PSQI score≥5). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed a relationship between SQ and gender, education, work, and financial level. Furthermore, SQ was found to be associated with self-reported health and physical activity. Regarding comorbidity, SQ had a significant relationship with cardiovascular diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, depression, and anxiety (P<0.05). Conclusion: The prevalence of poor SQ was high in these community-dwelling adults in Iran. These findings highlight the importance of intervention programs for sleep hygiene education and screening for middle-aged and older adults.

背景:睡眠是影响健康的必要生理过程。本研究旨在评估伊朗社区居住成年人的睡眠质量(SQ)及其相关因素。研究设计:横断面研究。方法:对第一波阿达坎队列老龄化研究(ACSA)中基于人群的横断面数据进行分析。分析样本为5197名年龄≥50岁的社区居民。所有数据均由训练有素的工作人员收集。采用匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(PSQI)评分来衡量睡眠质量。采用单变量和多变量logistic回归来确定SQ的预测因子。结果:参与者平均年龄为62.22±7.7岁，女性占51.8%。其中约四分之三(76.36%)的患者SQ较差(PSQI评分≥5)。多变量logistic回归分析显示，心理健康状况与性别、受教育程度、工作和经济水平有关。此外，SQ被发现与自我报告的健康和身体活动有关。在合并症方面，SQ与心血管疾病、肌肉骨骼疾病、抑郁和焦虑有显著相关(P<0.05)。结论:在伊朗的这些社区居住的成年人中，不良SQ的患病率很高。这些发现强调了干预项目对中老年睡眠卫生教育和筛查的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

A Fuzzy Clustering Approach to Identify Pedestrians’ Traffic Behavior Patterns 行人交通行为模式识别的模糊聚类方法

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.127

Parisa Saeipour, Parvin Sarbakhsh, Saman Salemi, Fatemeh Bakhtari Aghdam

Background: Pattern recognition of pedestrians’ traffic behavior can enhance the management efficiency of interested groups by targeting access to them and facilitating planning via more specific surveys. This study aimed to evaluate the pedestrians’ traffic behavior pattern by fuzzy clustering algorithm and assess the factors related to higher-risk traffic behavior of pedestrians. Study Design: This study is a secondary methodological study based on the data from a cross-sectional study. Methods: The fuzzy c-means (FCM), as a machine learning clustering method, was conducted to identify the pattern of traffic behaviors by collecting data from 600 pedestrians in Urmia, Iran via "the Pedestrian Behavior Questionnaire" (PBQ) and using 5 domains of PBQ. Multiple logistic regression was fitted to identify risk factors of traffic behaviors. Results: Results revealed two clusters consisting of lower-risk and higher-risk behaviors. The majority of pedestrians (64.33%) were in the lower-risk cluster. Subjects≤33 years old (Odds ratio [OR]=1.92, P<0.001), subjects with≤6 years of education (OR=1.74, P=0.010), males (OR=1.90, P=0.001), unmarried pedestrians (OR=3.61, P=0.007), and users of public transportation (OR=2.01, P=0.002) were more likely to have higher-risk traffic behavior. Conclusion: We identified traffic behavior patterns of Urmia pedestrians with lower-risk and higher-risk behaviors via FCM. The findings from this study would be helpful for policymakers to promote safety measures and train pedestrians.

背景:行人交通行为的模式识别可以通过更具体的调查提高兴趣群体的管理效率，并促进规划。本研究旨在通过模糊聚类算法对行人的交通行为模式进行评价，并对行人高危交通行为的相关因素进行评估。研究设计:本研究是基于横断面研究数据的二次方法学研究。方法:采用模糊c均值(FCM)作为机器学习聚类方法，通过“行人行为问卷”(PBQ)对伊朗乌尔米娅地区600名行人进行数据采集，利用PBQ的5个域进行交通行为模式识别。采用多元logistic回归方法对交通行为危险因素进行识别。结果:结果显示低危行为和高危行为两类。64.33%的行人属于低风险聚集类;年龄≤33岁(OR= 1.92, P=0.001)、受教育年限≤6年(OR=1.74, P=0.010)、男性(OR=1.90, P=0.001)、未婚行人(OR=3.61, P=0.007)和公共交通使用者(OR=2.01, P=0.002)发生高危交通行为的可能性较大。结论:通过FCM识别出Urmia行人的低风险和高风险交通行为模式。这项研究的结果将有助于政策制定者推广安全措施和训练行人。

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引用次数: 0

A Hybrid Approach Based on Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Neural Network Autoregressive Models to Predict Scorpion Sting Incidence in El Oued Province, Algeria, From 2005 to 2020 基于季节自回归综合移动平均和神经网络自回归模型的混合方法预测阿尔及利亚El Oued省2005 - 2020年蝎子蜇伤发生率

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.121

Safia Zenia, Mohamed L’Hadj, Schehrazad Selmane

Background: This study was designed to find the best statistical approach to scorpion sting predictions. Study Design: A retrospective study. Methods: Multiple regression, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregressive (NNAR), and hybrid SARIMA-NNAR models were developed to predict monthly scorpion sting cases in El Oued province. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to quantitatively compare different models. Results: In general, 96909 scorpion stings were recorded in El Oued province from 2005-2020. The incidence rate experienced a gradual decrease until 2012 and since then slight fluctuations have been noted. Scorpion stings occurred throughout the year with peaks in September followed by July and August and troughs in December and January. Sting cases were not evenly distributed across demographic groups; the most affected age group was 15-49 years, and males were more likely to be stung. Of the reported deaths, more than half were in children 15 and younger. Scorpion’s activity was conditioned by climate factors, and temperature had the highest effect. The SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12, NNAR(1,1,2)12, and SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12-NNAR(1,1,2)12 were selected as the best-fitting models. The RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the SARIMA and SARIMA-NNAR models were lower than those of the NNAR model in fitting and forecasting; however, the NNAR model could produce better predictive accuracy. Conclusion: The NNAR model is preferred for short-term monthly scorpion sting predictions. An in-depth understanding of the epidemiologic triad of scorpionism and the development of predictive models ought to establish enlightened, informed, better-targeted, and more effective policies.

背景:本研究旨在寻找预测蝎子蜇伤的最佳统计方法。研究设计:回顾性研究。方法:采用多元回归、季节自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)、神经网络自回归(NNAR)和SARIMA-NNAR混合模型对El Oued省每月蝎子蜇伤病例进行预测。采用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)对不同模型进行定量比较。结果:2005-2020年，该省共记录蝎子蜇伤96909例。发病率在2012年之前逐渐下降，此后出现轻微波动。蝎子蜇伤全年都有发生，高峰期在9月，其次是7月和8月，低谷在12月和1月。毒刺案件在人口群体中分布不均;15-49岁是受影响最大的年龄组，男性更容易被蜇伤。在报告的死亡人数中，超过一半是15岁及以下的儿童。蝎子的活动受气候因素的影响，温度的影响最大。选择SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12、NNAR(1,1,2)12和SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)12-NNAR(1,1,2)12作为最佳拟合模型。SARIMA和SARIMA-NNAR模型的RMSE、MAE和MAPE在拟合和预测上均低于NNAR模型;然而，NNAR模型可以产生更好的预测准确性。结论:NNAR模型是预测短期月均蝎子蜇伤的首选模型。深入了解蝎子病的流行病学三位一体和预测模型的发展，应该建立开明、知情、更有针对性和更有效的政策。

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引用次数: 0

Trend Analysis of Deaths With Unintentional Poisoning and Years of Life Lost in the South of Iran: 2004-2019 2004-2019年伊朗南部意外中毒死亡和寿命损失趋势分析

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.123

Habibollah Azarbakhsh, Fatemeh Jafari, Seyed Parsa Dehghani, Hamed Karami, Jafar Hassanzadeh, Alireza Mirahmadizadeh

Background: This study was conducted to determine the mortality rate and the years of life lost (YLL) due to unintentional poisoning in Fars province in the south of Iran. Study Design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: In this study, data from all of the deaths due to unintentional poisoning in the south of Iran between 2004 and 2019 was extracted from the population-based Electronic Death Registry System (EDRS). The Joinpoint Regression method was used to examine the trend of the crude mortality rate, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and the YLL rate. Results: During the 16-year study period (2004-2019), 1466 deaths due to poisoning occurred in Fars province. Of this number, 75.2% (1103 cases) were in men, and 37.5% (550 cases) were in the age group of 15-29 years. The total YLL due to poisoning during the 16-year study period were 25149 and 8392 in men and women, respectively. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the 16-year trend of YLL rate due to premature mortality was stable. Moreover, the annual percent change (APC) was -0.7% (95% CI: -4.0 to 2.7, P=0.677) for males and - 0.3% (95% CI: -3.8 to 3.3, P=0.862) for females. Conclusion: The trend of crude mortality rate, ASMR and YLL due to unintentional poisonings was stable. Considering the high rate of mortality and YLL due to unintentional poisoning in the age group of 15-29 years, it is essential to take necessary actions in this age group.

背景:本研究旨在确定伊朗南部法尔斯省因意外中毒导致的死亡率和生命损失年数(YLL)。研究设计:横断面研究。方法:在本研究中，从基于人群的电子死亡登记系统(EDRS)中提取了2004年至2019年伊朗南部所有因意外中毒而死亡的数据。采用联结点回归方法分析粗死亡率、年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)和YLL率的变化趋势。结果:在16年的研究期间(2004-2019年)，法尔斯省发生了1466例中毒死亡。其中，75.2%(1103例)为男性，37.5%(550例)为15-29岁年龄组。在16年的研究期间，男性和女性因中毒导致的总YLL分别为25149例和8392例。根据联结点回归分析，早亡率16年趋势稳定。此外，男性的年百分比变化(APC)为-0.7% (95% CI: -4.0至2.7,P=0.677)，女性的年百分比变化(APC)为- 0.3% (95% CI: -3.8至3.3,P=0.862)。结论:意外中毒的粗死亡率、ASMR和YLL趋势稳定。考虑到15-29岁年龄组因意外中毒造成的高死亡率和YLL，必须在这一年龄组采取必要的行动。

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引用次数: 0

The Effectiveness of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy on Pain Control and Adherence to Treatment in Dialysis Patients 接受承诺疗法对透析患者疼痛控制及治疗依从性的影响

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.32598/jrh.13.5.2285.1

Amir Hossein Sadeghi, Abbas Ghodrati-Torbati, Hamideh Yaghoubi, Seyed Ali Ahmadi

Background: Pain control and adherence to treatment is one of the most common problems in dialysis patients. Psychological treatments can be effective in reducing the problems of these patients. This study attempted to investigate the effectiveness of acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) on pain control and adherence to treatment among dialysis patients. Methods: It was a semi-experimental pre-test, post-test study with a control group. The statistical population consisted of 40 people who were referred to a dialysis clinic in 2022 and an available sampling method was used to select and randomly assign patients to two experimental and control groups. In the experimental group, ACT was performed in eight sessions of 90 minutes. McGill pain questionnaire (MPQ) and adherence to treatment scale were used. Data were analyzed using SPSS software, version 21 and analysis of covariance. Results: There was a significant difference between the mean scores of pain control and adherence to treatment in the two experimental and control groups (p<0.05). The effect of this treatment on increasing the pain control score was 51% and on increasing the adherence to treatment score was 44%. Conclusion: ACT can increase pain control and adherence to treatment in dialysis patients; thus, it can be used in designing treatment plans for dialysis patients.

背景:疼痛控制和治疗依从性是透析患者最常见的问题之一。心理治疗可以有效地减少这些患者的问题。本研究旨在探讨接受与承诺疗法(ACT)对透析患者疼痛控制及治疗依从性的效果。方法:采用半实验的前测、后测研究，并设对照组。统计人群包括40人，他们在2022年被转诊到透析诊所，使用现有的抽样方法选择并随机将患者分为两个实验组和对照组。在实验组中，ACT分8次进行，每次90分钟。采用McGill疼痛问卷(MPQ)和治疗依从性量表。数据分析采用SPSS软件，版本21和协方差分析。结果:实验组和对照组患者疼痛控制和治疗依从性得分均值比较，差异有统计学意义(p < 0.05)。这种治疗对增加疼痛控制评分的效果为51%，对增加治疗依从性评分的效果为44%。结论:ACT可提高透析患者的疼痛控制和治疗依从性;因此，它可以用于设计透析患者的治疗方案。

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引用次数: 0

Temperature and COVID-19 Incidence: An Ecologic Study 温度与COVID-19发病率:生态学研究

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.32598/jrh.13.2.2052.1

Alireza Mirahmadizadeh, Alireza Heiran, Abdolrasool Hemmati, Mehrzad Lotfi, Mahsa Akbari, Alireza Forouzanrad, Roya Sahebi

Background: According to the hypothesis, COVID-19 is less prevalent in regions with warm climates. Contradictory results have led us to investigate the correlation between temperature and the cumulative COVID-19 incidence rate. Methods: We obtained COVID-19 data from CRONALAB, COVID-DASHBOARD, and MCMC databases of Fars Province, Iran, linked the data and finalized daily COVID-19 cases. The daily data on the temperature was gotten from meteorological stations’ reports from March 21, 2020, to March 21, 2021, for each county of Fars Province, Southern Iran. The daily weighted cumulative incidence rate of COVID-19 cases was calculated for all counties, separately. Initially, for uniform data visualization, the average air temperature data were transformed into ranked percentiles. Then, to visually assess the study hypothesis, the distribution of COVID-19 cumulative incidence was visualized on percentiles of temperature. Given the non-linear distribution of the data, we performed exploratory analyses using the generalized additive models and locally weighted (polynomial) regressions to choose the best response function. Then, the generalized linear models were used to parametrically build the model. Results: The generalized additive models showed a small decreasing, near horizontal, linear pattern for COVID-19 incidence rate as the function of temperature (pseudo R2: 0.001, deviance explained: 0.13%, coefficient: -0.02). The GLMs showed head-to-head results (deviance explained: 0.13%, coefficient: -0.02], supported by similar Akaike information criteria (AICs) (34945). However, according to the locally weighted regressions model’s curve, lower COVID-19 incidence rates were recorded on days when the temperatures ranged from 60 to 80 percentiles, equal to 20°C to 25°C in a cold climate and 25°C to 35°C in a warm climate. This is while the rates increased at lower and upper temperatures. Conclusion: Daily COVID-19 incidence rate cannot be explained as a function of daily temperature in Southern parts of Iran. Higher rates of disease transmission out of the range of 20°C to 25°C for cold temperatures and 25°C to 35°C for warm climates might be linked to people’s indoor gatherings, coupled with insufficient ventilation.

背景:根据假设，COVID-19在温暖气候地区的流行程度较低。矛盾的结果促使我们研究温度与COVID-19累积发病率之间的相关性。方法:从伊朗法尔斯省的CRONALAB、COVID-DASHBOARD和MCMC数据库中获取COVID-19数据，将数据进行链接并最终确定每日COVID-19病例。每日气温数据来自伊朗南部法尔斯省每个县2020年3月21日至2021年3月21日的气象站报告。分别计算各县新冠肺炎日加权累计发病率。最初，为了实现统一的数据可视化，将平均气温数据转换为排名的百分位数。然后，以温度百分位数显示COVID-19累积发病率的分布，以直观地评估研究假设。考虑到数据的非线性分布，我们使用广义加性模型和局部加权(多项式)回归进行探索性分析，以选择最佳响应函数。然后，采用广义线性模型对模型进行参数化建立。结果:广义加性模型显示，COVID-19发病率随温度的变化呈小幅度下降，接近水平线性(拟R2: 0.001，偏差解释:0.13%，系数:-0.02)。在类似的赤池信息标准(aic)(34945)的支持下，glm显示出正面的结果(偏差解释:0.13%，系数:-0.02)。然而，根据局部加权回归模型的曲线，当温度在60至80个百分位数之间时，即在寒冷气候中为20°C至25°C，在温暖气候中为25°C至35°C时，COVID-19发病率较低。这是在较低和较高温度下速率增加的情况。结论:在伊朗南部地区，每日COVID-19发病率不能解释为日气温的函数。在20°C至25°C的低温和25°C至35°C的温暖气候范围内，疾病传播率较高，可能与人们在室内聚集，再加上通风不足有关。

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引用次数: 0

Quality of Life and Its Relative Factors Among Patients With Multiple Sclerosis: A Cross-sectional Study in Northwest Iran 伊朗西北部地区多发性硬化症患者生活质量及其相关因素的横断面研究

Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.32598/jrh.13.4.2197.1

Farid Gharibi, Ali Imani, Mehdi Haghi, Ali Khezri, Nasrin Joudyian, Masoumeh Ebrahimi Tavani, Koustuv Dalal

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the critical diseases due to its adverse clinical, social, and economic consequences for affected people. This study aims to assess the quality of life (QoL) of patients with MS in East Azerbaijan, Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using the multiple sclerosis quality of life-54 (MSQoL-54) questionnaires to interview 300 randomly selected MS patients in East Azarbaijan Province, Iran. The independent t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Tukey post hoc test were used to examine the relationship between demographic variables, and QoL, and all analyses were performed using SPSS software, version 19. Results: The QoL score in MS patients is 48.22±22.48. The “life satisfaction” is the best and “physical role limitation” is the worst QoL aspect. Significant relationships were observed between marital status, education level, employment status, age of symptoms onset, and years of illness with QoL (P<0.05). Conclusion: The QoL of the MS patients in East Azarbaijan Province is lower than in other parts of Iran and much lower than in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

背景:多发性硬化症(MS)因其对患者的不良临床、社会和经济后果而成为危重疾病之一。本研究旨在评估伊朗东阿塞拜疆地区MS患者的生活质量(QoL)。方法:采用多发性硬化症生活质量问卷(MSQoL-54)对伊朗东Azarbaijan省随机抽取的300例多发性硬化症患者进行横断面研究。采用独立t检验、方差分析(ANOVA)和Tukey事后检验来检验人口统计学变量与生活质量之间的关系，所有分析均使用SPSS 19版软件进行。结果:MS患者的生活质量评分为48.22±22.48。“生活满意度”是最好的，“身体角色限制”是最差的。婚姻状况、受教育程度、就业状况、症状出现年龄、患病年限与生活质量有显著相关(P<0.05)。结论:东阿塞拜疆省MS患者的生活质量低于伊朗其他地区，远低于经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家。

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引用次数: 0

Epidemiological Analysis of HIV/AIDS in Kazakhstan During 2018-2020. 2018-2020年哈萨克斯坦艾滋病流行病学分析

IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.115

Galiya Bilibayeva, Dinara Ospanova, Anarkhan Nurkerimova, Farida Kussainova, Marat Tukeev, Moldir Shokybaeva, Shynar Tanabayeva, Ildar Fakhradiyev, Timur Saliev

Background: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a severe threat to public health everywhere, including the Central Asian region and Kazakhstan. The aim of the study was to conduct an epidemiological analysis of newly diagnosed cases of HIV infection during 2018-2020.

Study design: A case series study.

Methods: A descriptive analysis of national data on registered cases of HIV in Kazakhstan was conducted, and demographic information was collected and studied accordingly. The analysis of the influence of age, period, and cohort was performed using the age-period-cohort method.

Results: Based on the results, men prevailed (68.5%) among all cases of HIV infection (n=1235). Sexual transmission during heterosexual contact was higher in females (88.9%, P=0.005), and the number of new cases as a result of homosexual contact was higher in men (23.0%, P=0.087). In addition, the parenteral route of HIV transmission cases prevailed among men (27.5%, P=0.001), and intravenous drug administration was more common among males (27.4%, P=0.01). Moreover, 68.5% of men and 33.2% of women had a low therapy adherence. In men, the risk of HIV prevalence increased after 32.5 years (deviation [Dv]: 0.134, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.096 to 0.364). At the age of 37.5 years, there was an increase (Dv: 0.852, 95% CI=0.626 to 1.079) in HIV prevalence. However, no peaks were observed in women.

Conclusion: Our findings indicated a rise in the prevalence of HIV infection in Kazakhstan. Men aged 37 and older were identified as the risk category. Eventually, inadequate adherence to treatment was observed in HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients.

背景:人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)对包括中亚地区和哈萨克斯坦在内的世界各地的公共卫生构成严重威胁。该研究的目的是对2018-2020年新诊断的艾滋病毒感染病例进行流行病学分析。研究设计:案例系列研究。方法:对哈萨克斯坦全国艾滋病登记病例数据进行描述性分析，收集人口统计信息并进行研究。采用年龄-时期-队列方法分析年龄、时期和队列的影响。结果:1235例HIV感染者中，男性占68.5%;女性通过异性性接触传播的病例较多(88.9%，P=0.005)，男性通过同性性接触传播的病例较多(23.0%，P=0.087)。男性以静脉给药为主(27.4%，P=0.01)，男性以静脉给药为主(27.5%，P=0.001)。此外，68.5%的男性和33.2%的女性治疗依从性较低。在男性中，32.5年后艾滋病毒流行的风险增加(偏差[Dv]: 0.134, 95%可信区间[CI]=0.096 ~ 0.364)。在37.5岁时，HIV患病率增加(Dv: 0.852, 95% CI=0.626 ~ 1.079)。然而，在女性中没有观察到峰值。结论:我们的研究结果表明，哈萨克斯坦的艾滋病毒感染率有所上升。37岁及以上的男性被确定为风险类别。最终，在HIV/获得性免疫缺陷综合征患者中观察到治疗依从性不足。

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引用次数: 0

A Hybrid of Random Forests and Generalized Path Analysis: A Causal Modeling of Crashes in 52,524 Suburban Areas. 随机森林与广义路径分析的混合:52,524个郊区交通事故的因果模型。

IF 1.5 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Journal of research in health sciences

Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.34172/jrhs.2023.116

Fatemeh Jahanjoo, Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Seyyed Teymoor Hosseini, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi

Background: Determining suburban area crashes' risk factors may allow for early and operative safety measures to find the main risk factors and moderating effects of crashes. Therefore, this paper has focused on a causal modeling framework.

Study design: A cross-sectional study.

Methods: In this study, 52524 suburban crashes were investigated from 2015 to 2016. The hybrid-random-forest-generalized-path-analysis technique (HRF-gPath) was used to extract the main variables and identify mediators and moderators.

Results: This study analyzed 42 explanatory variables using a RF model, and it was found that collision type, distinct, driver misconduct, speed, license, prior cause, plaque description, vehicle maneuver, vehicle type, lighting, passenger presence, seatbelt use, and land use were significant factors. Further analysis using g-Path demonstrated the mediating and predicting roles of collision type, vehicle type, seatbelt use, and driver misconduct. The modified model fitted the data well, with statistical significance ( χ²₃₀ =81.29, P<0.001) and high values for comparative-fit-index and Tucker-Lewis-index exceeding 0.9, as well as a low root-mean-square-error-of-approximation of 0.031 (90% confidence interval: 0.030-0.032).

Conclusion: The results of our study identified several significant variables, including collision type, vehicle type, seatbelt use, and driver misconduct, which played mediating and predicting roles. These findings provide valuable insights into the complex factors that contribute to collisions via a theoretical framework and can inform efforts to reduce their occurrence in the future.

背景:确定郊区交通事故的危险因素，可以采取早期和可操作的安全措施，以发现主要的危险因素和调节交通事故的作用。因此，本文重点研究了一个因果建模框架。研究设计:横断面研究。方法:对2015 - 2016年52524起郊区交通事故进行调查。采用混合随机森林广义路径分析技术(HRF-gPath)提取主变量，识别调节因子和调节因子。结果:本研究使用射频模型分析了42个解释变量，发现碰撞类型、不同程度、驾驶员不当行为、速度、执照、先前原因、牌匾描述、车辆机动、车辆类型、照明、乘客存在、安全带使用和土地使用是显著因素。利用g-Path进一步分析表明，碰撞类型、车辆类型、安全带使用和驾驶员不当行为在事故发生中的中介和预测作用。修正后的模型拟合数据较好，具有统计学意义(χ230 =81.29, p)。结论:我们的研究结果发现碰撞类型、车辆类型、安全带使用情况和驾驶员不当行为等几个显著变量发挥了中介和预测作用。这些发现通过理论框架对导致碰撞的复杂因素提供了有价值的见解，并可以为未来减少碰撞发生的努力提供信息。

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引用次数: 0