Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the mid-latitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bone mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate mid-latitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Lastly, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. The model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.
{"title":"A Moist Potential Vorticity Model for Mid-Latitude Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Land","authors":"Qiu Yang, L. Leung, Zhe Feng, Xingchao Chen","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-22-0244.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-22-0244.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the mid-latitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bone mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate mid-latitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Lastly, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. The model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44311820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The combination of moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) and dry environments can produce the most uncertain scenarios for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and intensification. We investigated the sources of increased uncertainty of TC development under moderate VWS and dry environments using a set of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble simulations. Statistical analysis of ensemble members for precursor events and time-lagged correlations indicates that successful TC development is dependent on a specific set of precursor events. A deficiency in any of these precursor events leads to a failure of TC intensification. The uncertainty of TC intensification can be largely attributed to the probabilistic characteristics of precursor events lining up together before TC intensification. The critical bifurcation point between successful and failed trials in these idealized simulations is the sustained vortex alignment process. Even for the failed intensification cases, most simulations showed deep organized convection, which reformed a mid-level vortex. However, for the failed cycles, the new mid-level vortex could not sustain vertical alignment with the low-level center and was carried away by VWS shortly. Under the most uncertain setup (VWS 7.5 m s−1 and 50% moisture), the latest developing ensemble member had seven events of tilt decreasing and increasing again that occurred during the eight days before genesis. Some unsuccessful precursor events looked very close to the successful ones, implying limits on the intrinsic predictability for TC genesis and intensification in moderately sheared and dry environments.
中等垂直风切变(VWS)和干燥环境的结合可以产生热带气旋(TC)发生和增强的最不确定情景。我们利用一组天气研究与预报(WRF)集合模拟研究了中度VWS和干燥环境下TC发展不确定性增加的来源。对前驱事件的集合成员和时间滞后相关性的统计分析表明，TC的成功发展依赖于一组特定的前驱事件。这些前体事件中的任何一个缺乏都会导致TC强化失败。TC增强的不确定性很大程度上归因于在TC增强之前前兆事件排列在一起的概率特征。在这些理想化的模拟中，试验成功与失败的关键分歧点是持续的涡旋对准过程。即使在强化失败的情况下，大多数模拟也显示了深层有组织对流，形成了一个中层涡旋。然而，在失败的循环中，新的中层涡无法维持与低层中心的垂直对齐，并很快被VWS带走。在最不确定条件下(VWS为7.5 m s−1，湿度为50%)，最晚发育的整体成员在发生前8 d内发生了7次倾斜先减小后增大的事件。一些不成功的前兆事件看起来非常接近成功的前兆事件，这意味着在中度剪切和干燥环境中，TC的发生和增强的内在可预测性是有限的。
{"title":"Bifurcation points for tropical cyclone genesis and intensification in sheared and dry environments","authors":"C. Nam, M. Bell, D. Tao","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-22-0100.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-22-0100.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The combination of moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) and dry environments can produce the most uncertain scenarios for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and intensification. We investigated the sources of increased uncertainty of TC development under moderate VWS and dry environments using a set of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble simulations. Statistical analysis of ensemble members for precursor events and time-lagged correlations indicates that successful TC development is dependent on a specific set of precursor events. A deficiency in any of these precursor events leads to a failure of TC intensification. The uncertainty of TC intensification can be largely attributed to the probabilistic characteristics of precursor events lining up together before TC intensification. The critical bifurcation point between successful and failed trials in these idealized simulations is the sustained vortex alignment process. Even for the failed intensification cases, most simulations showed deep organized convection, which reformed a mid-level vortex. However, for the failed cycles, the new mid-level vortex could not sustain vertical alignment with the low-level center and was carried away by VWS shortly. Under the most uncertain setup (VWS 7.5 m s−1 and 50% moisture), the latest developing ensemble member had seven events of tilt decreasing and increasing again that occurred during the eight days before genesis. Some unsuccessful precursor events looked very close to the successful ones, implying limits on the intrinsic predictability for TC genesis and intensification in moderately sheared and dry environments.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43320920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Multiple sub-vortices corresponding to suction vortices in observations are obtained within a simulated tornado for the EF4 tornado case of Funing, China on June 23, 2016. Within the simulation, the tornado evolves from a one-cell structure with vorticity maximum at its center to a two-cell structure with a ring of vorticity maximum. Five well-defined sub-vortices develop along the ring. The radial profile of tangential wind across the vorticity ring satisfies the necessary condition of barotropic instability associated with phase-locked, counter-propagating vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) along the ring edges. The phased-locked waves revolve around the parent vortex at a speed less than the maximum azimuthal-mean tangential velocity, agreeing with theoretically predicted VRW phase speed. The radii within which the wave activities are confined to are also correctly predicted by the VRW theory where radial group velocity approaches zero. Several other characteristics related to the simulated sub-vortices agree with VRW theories also. The most unstable azimuthal wavenumber depends on the width and the relative magnitude of vorticity of the vortex ring. Their values estimated from the simulation prior to sub-vortex formation correctly predict wavenumber five as the most unstable. The largest contribution to wave kinetic energy is diagnosed to be from the radial shear of azimuthal wind term, consistent with barotropic instability. Vorticity diagnostics show that vertical vorticity stretching is the primary vorticity source for the intensification and maintenance of the simulated sub-vortices.
{"title":"Sub-vortices Within a Numerically Simulated Tornado: The Role of Unstable Vortex Rossby Waves","authors":"Wei Huang, M. Xue","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-22-0237.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-22-0237.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Multiple sub-vortices corresponding to suction vortices in observations are obtained within a simulated tornado for the EF4 tornado case of Funing, China on June 23, 2016. Within the simulation, the tornado evolves from a one-cell structure with vorticity maximum at its center to a two-cell structure with a ring of vorticity maximum. Five well-defined sub-vortices develop along the ring. The radial profile of tangential wind across the vorticity ring satisfies the necessary condition of barotropic instability associated with phase-locked, counter-propagating vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) along the ring edges. The phased-locked waves revolve around the parent vortex at a speed less than the maximum azimuthal-mean tangential velocity, agreeing with theoretically predicted VRW phase speed. The radii within which the wave activities are confined to are also correctly predicted by the VRW theory where radial group velocity approaches zero. Several other characteristics related to the simulated sub-vortices agree with VRW theories also. The most unstable azimuthal wavenumber depends on the width and the relative magnitude of vorticity of the vortex ring. Their values estimated from the simulation prior to sub-vortex formation correctly predict wavenumber five as the most unstable. The largest contribution to wave kinetic energy is diagnosed to be from the radial shear of azimuthal wind term, consistent with barotropic instability. Vorticity diagnostics show that vertical vorticity stretching is the primary vorticity source for the intensification and maintenance of the simulated sub-vortices.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43066643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study derives simple analytical expressions for the theoretical height profiles of particle number concentrations (Nt) and mean volume diameters (Dm) during the steady-state balance of vapor growth and collision-coalescence with sedimentation. These equations are general for both rain and snow gamma size distributions with size-dependent power-law functions that dictate particle fall speeds and masses. For collision-coalescence only, Nt (Dm) decreases (increases) as an exponential function of the radar reflectivity difference between two height layers. For vapor deposition only, Dm increases as a generalized power law of this reflectivity difference. Simultaneous vapor deposition and collision-coalescence under steady-state conditions with conservation of number, mass, and reflectivity fluxes lead to a coupled set of first-order, nonlinear ordinary differential equations for Nt and Dm. The solutions to these coupled equations are generalized power-law functions of height z for Dm(z) and Nt(z) whereby each variable is related to one another with an exponent that is independent of collision-coalescence efficiency. Compared to observed profiles derived from descending in-situ aircraft Lagrangian spiral profiles from the CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign, these analytical solutions can on average capture the height profiles of Nt and Dm within 8% and 4% of observations, respectively. Steady-state model projections of radar retrievals aloft are shown to produce the correct rapid enhancement of surface snowfall compared to the lowest-available radar retrievals from 500 m MSL. Future studies can utilize these equations alongside radar measurements to estimate Nt and Dm below radar tilt elevations and to estimate uncertain microphysical parameters such as collision-coalescence efficiencies.
{"title":"Simple Analytical Expressions for Steady-State Vapor Growth and Collision-Coalescence Particle Size Distribution Parameter Profiles","authors":"E. Dunnavan, A. Ryzhkov","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-23-0052.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-23-0052.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study derives simple analytical expressions for the theoretical height profiles of particle number concentrations (Nt) and mean volume diameters (Dm) during the steady-state balance of vapor growth and collision-coalescence with sedimentation. These equations are general for both rain and snow gamma size distributions with size-dependent power-law functions that dictate particle fall speeds and masses. For collision-coalescence only, Nt (Dm) decreases (increases) as an exponential function of the radar reflectivity difference between two height layers. For vapor deposition only, Dm increases as a generalized power law of this reflectivity difference. Simultaneous vapor deposition and collision-coalescence under steady-state conditions with conservation of number, mass, and reflectivity fluxes lead to a coupled set of first-order, nonlinear ordinary differential equations for Nt and Dm. The solutions to these coupled equations are generalized power-law functions of height z for Dm(z) and Nt(z) whereby each variable is related to one another with an exponent that is independent of collision-coalescence efficiency. Compared to observed profiles derived from descending in-situ aircraft Lagrangian spiral profiles from the CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign, these analytical solutions can on average capture the height profiles of Nt and Dm within 8% and 4% of observations, respectively. Steady-state model projections of radar retrievals aloft are shown to produce the correct rapid enhancement of surface snowfall compared to the lowest-available radar retrievals from 500 m MSL. Future studies can utilize these equations alongside radar measurements to estimate Nt and Dm below radar tilt elevations and to estimate uncertain microphysical parameters such as collision-coalescence efficiencies.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44359631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Masthead","authors":"","doi":"10.1175/jas-808masthead","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-808masthead","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44395599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract High-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves (QSWs) have been connected to extreme weather events. By identifying particularly high-amplitude QSW events (QWEs) over Europe and North America, we study their characteristics in ERA5 data and in ensemble simulations from the CESM2 general circulation model. The CESM2 reproduces the overall statistics of QWEs, with ERA5 results within the ensemble spread. The ensemble spread is large, indicating a strong influence of internal variability. Composites of meridional wind anomalies for QWEs show a phase preference in both ERA5 and CESM2, resembling the climatological wave pattern. This is partly due to the definition of QSWs; with the day-of-year climatological meridional wind removed when identifying QSWs, the phase preference remains, albeit with a weaker signal. Significant tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies are seen 5–15 days before observed QWEs; the location of these anomalies is broadly reproduced in CESM2, but the magnitude is substantially underestimated and the time scale is biased. We find a narrowed and strengthened jet stream over the Pacific at the early stage of European QWEs, which may create enhanced waveguidability; this signal is generally reproduced in the models. Overall, the CESM2 can simulate QWEs; differences between the model ensemble mean and the reanalysis could result from model bias or internal variability, although biases are not reduced in CESM2 simulations forced with observed SSTs.
{"title":"Large-Amplitude Quasi-Stationary Rossby Wave Events in ERA5 and the CESM2: Features, Precursors, and Model Biases in Northern Hemisphere Winter","authors":"Cuiyi Fei, Rachel H. White","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-22-0042.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-22-0042.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract High-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves (QSWs) have been connected to extreme weather events. By identifying particularly high-amplitude QSW events (QWEs) over Europe and North America, we study their characteristics in ERA5 data and in ensemble simulations from the CESM2 general circulation model. The CESM2 reproduces the overall statistics of QWEs, with ERA5 results within the ensemble spread. The ensemble spread is large, indicating a strong influence of internal variability. Composites of meridional wind anomalies for QWEs show a phase preference in both ERA5 and CESM2, resembling the climatological wave pattern. This is partly due to the definition of QSWs; with the day-of-year climatological meridional wind removed when identifying QSWs, the phase preference remains, albeit with a weaker signal. Significant tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies are seen 5–15 days before observed QWEs; the location of these anomalies is broadly reproduced in CESM2, but the magnitude is substantially underestimated and the time scale is biased. We find a narrowed and strengthened jet stream over the Pacific at the early stage of European QWEs, which may create enhanced waveguidability; this signal is generally reproduced in the models. Overall, the CESM2 can simulate QWEs; differences between the model ensemble mean and the reanalysis could result from model bias or internal variability, although biases are not reduced in CESM2 simulations forced with observed SSTs.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136167466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop innovative analytical expressions for the mean wind and potential temperature flux profiles in convective boundary layers (CBLs). CBLs are frequently observed during daytime as Earth’s surface is warmed by solar radiation. Therefore, their modeling is relevant for weather forecasting, climate modeling, and wind energy applications. For CBLs in the convective-roll-dominated regime, the mean velocity and potential temperature in the bulk region of the mixed layer are approximately uniform. We propose an analytical expression for the normalized potential temperature flux profile as a function of height, using a perturbation method approach in which we employ the horizontally homogeneous and quasi-stationary characteristics of the surface and inversion layers. The velocity profile in the mixed layer and the entrainment zone is constructed based on insights obtained from the proposed potential temperature flux profile and the convective logarithmic friction law. Combining this with the well-known Monin–Obukhov similarity theory allows us to capture the velocity profile over the entire boundary layer height. The proposed profiles agree excellently with large-eddy simulation results over the range of −L/z0 ∈ [3.6 × 102, 0.7 × 105], where L is the Obukhov length and z0 is the roughness length.
{"title":"The Mean Wind and Potential Temperature Flux Profiles in Convective Boundary Layers","authors":"Luoqin Liu, Srinidhi N. Gadde, R. Stevens","doi":"10.1175/JAS-D-22-0159.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0159.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000We develop innovative analytical expressions for the mean wind and potential temperature flux profiles in convective boundary layers (CBLs). CBLs are frequently observed during daytime as Earth’s surface is warmed by solar radiation. Therefore, their modeling is relevant for weather forecasting, climate modeling, and wind energy applications. For CBLs in the convective-roll-dominated regime, the mean velocity and potential temperature in the bulk region of the mixed layer are approximately uniform. We propose an analytical expression for the normalized potential temperature flux profile as a function of height, using a perturbation method approach in which we employ the horizontally homogeneous and quasi-stationary characteristics of the surface and inversion layers. The velocity profile in the mixed layer and the entrainment zone is constructed based on insights obtained from the proposed potential temperature flux profile and the convective logarithmic friction law. Combining this with the well-known Monin–Obukhov similarity theory allows us to capture the velocity profile over the entire boundary layer height. The proposed profiles agree excellently with large-eddy simulation results over the range of −L/z0 ∈ [3.6 × 102, 0.7 × 105], where L is the Obukhov length and z0 is the roughness length.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45060359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-28DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0042.1.1
Cuiyi Fei, R. White
High amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves (QSWs) have been connected to extreme weather events. By identifying particularly high amplitude QSW events (QWEs) over Europe and North America we study their characteristics in ERA5 re-analysis data and in ensemble simulations from the CESM2 general circulation model. The CESM2 reproduces the overall statistics of QWEs, with ERA5 results within the ensemble spread. The ensemble spread is large, indicating a strong influence of internal variability. Composites of meridional wind anomalies for QWEs show a phase preference in both ERA5 and CESM2, resembling the climatological wave pattern. This is partly due to the definition of QSWs; with the day-of-year climatological meridional wind removed when identifying QSWs, the phase preference remains, albeit with a weaker signal. Significant tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies are seen 5-15 days before observed QWEs; the location of these anomalies is broadly reproduced in CESM2, but the magnitude is substantially underestimated and the time scale is biased. We find a narrowed and strengthened jet stream over the Pacific at the early stage of European QWEs, which may create enhanced waveguidability; this signal is generally reproduced in the models. Overall, the CESM2 can simulate QWEs; differences between the model ensemble mean and re-analysis could result from model bias or internal variability, although biases are not reduced in CESM2 simulations forced with observed SSTs.
{"title":"Large-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby wave events in ERA5 and the CESM2: features, precursors, and model biases in Northern Hemisphere winter","authors":"Cuiyi Fei, R. White","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-22-0042.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-22-0042.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000High amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves (QSWs) have been connected to extreme weather events. By identifying particularly high amplitude QSW events (QWEs) over Europe and North America we study their characteristics in ERA5 re-analysis data and in ensemble simulations from the CESM2 general circulation model. The CESM2 reproduces the overall statistics of QWEs, with ERA5 results within the ensemble spread. The ensemble spread is large, indicating a strong influence of internal variability. Composites of meridional wind anomalies for QWEs show a phase preference in both ERA5 and CESM2, resembling the climatological wave pattern. This is partly due to the definition of QSWs; with the day-of-year climatological meridional wind removed when identifying QSWs, the phase preference remains, albeit with a weaker signal. Significant tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies are seen 5-15 days before observed QWEs; the location of these anomalies is broadly reproduced in CESM2, but the magnitude is substantially underestimated and the time scale is biased. We find a narrowed and strengthened jet stream over the Pacific at the early stage of European QWEs, which may create enhanced waveguidability; this signal is generally reproduced in the models. Overall, the CESM2 can simulate QWEs; differences between the model ensemble mean and re-analysis could result from model bias or internal variability, although biases are not reduced in CESM2 simulations forced with observed SSTs.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45710823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The moist static energy (MSE) budget is widely used to understand moist atmospheric thermodynamics. However, the budget is not exact, and the accuracy of the approximations that yield it has not been examined rigorously in the context of large-scale tropical motions (horizontal scales ≥ 1000 km). A scale analysis shows that these approximations are most accurate in systems whose latent energy anomalies are considerably larger than the geopotential and kinetic energy anomalies. This condition is satisfied in systems that exhibit phase speeds and horizontal winds on the order of 10 m s−1 or less. Results from a power spectral analysis of data from the DYNAMO field campaign and ERA5 qualitatively agree with the scaling, although they indicate that the neglected terms are smaller than what the scaling suggests. A linear regression analysis of the MJO events that occurred during DYNAMO yields results that support these findings. It is suggested that the MSE budget is accurate in the tropics because motions within these latitudes are constrained to exhibit small fluctuations in geopotential and kinetic energy as a result of Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) balance.
{"title":"On the Accuracy of the Moist Static Energy Budget when Applied to Large-Scale Tropical Motions","authors":"Ángel F. Adames Corraliza, V. Mayta","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-23-0005.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-23-0005.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The moist static energy (MSE) budget is widely used to understand moist atmospheric thermodynamics. However, the budget is not exact, and the accuracy of the approximations that yield it has not been examined rigorously in the context of large-scale tropical motions (horizontal scales ≥ 1000 km). A scale analysis shows that these approximations are most accurate in systems whose latent energy anomalies are considerably larger than the geopotential and kinetic energy anomalies. This condition is satisfied in systems that exhibit phase speeds and horizontal winds on the order of 10 m s−1 or less. Results from a power spectral analysis of data from the DYNAMO field campaign and ERA5 qualitatively agree with the scaling, although they indicate that the neglected terms are smaller than what the scaling suggests. A linear regression analysis of the MJO events that occurred during DYNAMO yields results that support these findings. It is suggested that the MSE budget is accurate in the tropics because motions within these latitudes are constrained to exhibit small fluctuations in geopotential and kinetic energy as a result of Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) balance.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47278622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Supercell thunderstorms develop low-level rotation via tilting of environmental horizontal vorticity by the updraft. This rotation induces dynamic lifting that can stretch near-surface vertical vorticity into a tornado. Low-level updraft rotation is generally thought to scale with 0–500 m storm-relative helicity (SRH): the combination of storm-relative flow, , , and (where is the angle between and ). It is unclear how much influence each component of SRH has in intensifying the low-level mesocyclone. This study surveys these three components using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to distill 15,906 proximity soundings for observed right-moving supercells. Statistical analyses reveal the component most highly correlated to SRH and to streamwise vorticity in the observed profiles is . Furthermore, and are themselves highly correlated due to their shared dependence on the hodograph length. The representative profiles produced by the SOMs were combined with a common thermodynamic profile to initialize quasi-realistic supercells in a cloud model. The simulations reveal that, across a range of real-world profiles, intense low-level mesocyclones are most closely linked to and , while the angle between them appears to be mostly inconsequential.
{"title":"Assessing the Comparative Effects of Storm-relative Helicity Components within Right-moving Supercell Environments","authors":"Nicholas A. Goldacker, M. Parker","doi":"10.1175/jas-d-22-0253.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-22-0253.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Supercell thunderstorms develop low-level rotation via tilting of environmental horizontal vorticity by the updraft. This rotation induces dynamic lifting that can stretch near-surface vertical vorticity into a tornado. Low-level updraft rotation is generally thought to scale with 0–500 m storm-relative helicity (SRH): the combination of storm-relative flow, , , and (where is the angle between and ). It is unclear how much influence each component of SRH has in intensifying the low-level mesocyclone. This study surveys these three components using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to distill 15,906 proximity soundings for observed right-moving supercells. Statistical analyses reveal the component most highly correlated to SRH and to streamwise vorticity in the observed profiles is . Furthermore, and are themselves highly correlated due to their shared dependence on the hodograph length. The representative profiles produced by the SOMs were combined with a common thermodynamic profile to initialize quasi-realistic supercells in a cloud model. The simulations reveal that, across a range of real-world profiles, intense low-level mesocyclones are most closely linked to and , while the angle between them appears to be mostly inconsequential.","PeriodicalId":17231,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42227758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：