Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.005
Zhang Hong-yu, Chen Rui-dan, Lan Ming
{"title":"Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influenceof Tropical Sea Surface Temperature","authors":"Zhang Hong-yu, Chen Rui-dan, Lan Ming","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Application of a Meteo-hydrological Forecasting System with Rainfall Bias Correction in a Small and Medium-sized Catchment","authors":"Gao Yu-fang, Wu Yu-qing, Chen Yao-deng, Yu Wei, GU Tian-wei, Wu Ya-zhen","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.006
Z. Qun, Wei Li-xin, L. min
{"title":"Possible Linkage Between Tropical Indian Ocean SST Anomalies and the Date of First and Last Tropical Cyclones Landfalling in the Chinese Mainland","authors":"Z. Qun, Wei Li-xin, L. min","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.003
LI Chan-zhu, Yang Song, MO Wei-qiang, Zhang Jin-mei, Wei Wei
: In this study, we assess the prediction for May rainfall over southern China (SC) by using the NCEP CFSv2 outputs. Results show that the CFSv2 is able to depict the climatology of May rainfall and associated circulations. However, the model has a poor skill in predicting interannual variation due to its poor performance in capturing related anomalous circulations. In observation, the above-normal SC rainfall is associated with two anomalous anticyclones over the western tropical Pacific and northeastern China, respectively, with a low-pressure convergence in between. In the CFSv2, however, the anomalous circulations exhibit the patterns in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), demonstrating that the model overestimates the relationship between May SC rainfall and ENSO. Because of the onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the atmospheric circulation in May over SC is more complex, so the prediction for May SC rainfall is more challenging. In this study, we establish a dynamic-statistical forecast model for May SC rainfall based on the relationship between the interannual variation of rainfall and large-scale ocean-atmosphere variables in the CFSv2. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northeastern Pacific and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies over western Siberia in previous April, which exert great influence on the SC rainfall in May, are chosen as predictors. Furthermore, multiple linear regression is employed between the predictors obtained from the CFSv2 and observed May SC rainfall. Both cross validation and independent test show that the hybrid model significantly improve the model's skill in predicting the interannual variation of May SC rainfall by two months in advance.
{"title":"Seasonal Prediction for May Rainfall over Southern China Based on the NCEP CFSv2","authors":"LI Chan-zhu, Yang Song, MO Wei-qiang, Zhang Jin-mei, Wei Wei","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.003","url":null,"abstract":": In this study, we assess the prediction for May rainfall over southern China (SC) by using the NCEP CFSv2 outputs. Results show that the CFSv2 is able to depict the climatology of May rainfall and associated circulations. However, the model has a poor skill in predicting interannual variation due to its poor performance in capturing related anomalous circulations. In observation, the above-normal SC rainfall is associated with two anomalous anticyclones over the western tropical Pacific and northeastern China, respectively, with a low-pressure convergence in between. In the CFSv2, however, the anomalous circulations exhibit the patterns in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), demonstrating that the model overestimates the relationship between May SC rainfall and ENSO. Because of the onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the atmospheric circulation in May over SC is more complex, so the prediction for May SC rainfall is more challenging. In this study, we establish a dynamic-statistical forecast model for May SC rainfall based on the relationship between the interannual variation of rainfall and large-scale ocean-atmosphere variables in the CFSv2. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northeastern Pacific and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies over western Siberia in previous April, which exert great influence on the SC rainfall in May, are chosen as predictors. Furthermore, multiple linear regression is employed between the predictors obtained from the CFSv2 and observed May SC rainfall. Both cross validation and independent test show that the hybrid model significantly improve the model's skill in predicting the interannual variation of May SC rainfall by two months in advance.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.008
Sun Chan, X. Xiang-de, Wang Pei-juan, Yang Dian, Zhang Sheng-jun, Wan Chun-zhu, Cai Wen-yue
{"title":"The Warming and Wetting Ecological Environment Changes over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Driving Effect of the Asian Summer Monsoon","authors":"Sun Chan, X. Xiang-de, Wang Pei-juan, Yang Dian, Zhang Sheng-jun, Wan Chun-zhu, Cai Wen-yue","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.011
MA Yun-qi, Ren Fu-min, Jia Li, Ding Chen-chen
: In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004 - 2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP-4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥ 250 mm and ≥ 100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.
{"title":"Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China","authors":"MA Yun-qi, Ren Fu-min, Jia Li, Ding Chen-chen","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.011","url":null,"abstract":": In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004 - 2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP-4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥ 250 mm and ≥ 100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.016
Nan Xue-jing, Lin Wei-li, HE Xiao-lei, Lei Yong, A. Merlone
{"title":"PM10 Observed at a Meteorological Station in Beijing: Historical Trend and Implications","authors":"Nan Xue-jing, Lin Wei-li, HE Xiao-lei, Lei Yong, A. Merlone","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.016","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.007
Yao Zhi-gang, Hong-Suk Jun, Cui Xing-dong, Zhao Zeng-liang, Han Zhi-gang
{"title":"A Neural Network Based Single Footprint Temperature Retrieval for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Measurements and Its Application to Study on Stratospheric Gravity Wave","authors":"Yao Zhi-gang, Hong-Suk Jun, Cui Xing-dong, Zhao Zeng-liang, Han Zhi-gang","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70477015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.017
Zhou Xin-yu, HU Dong-ming, Zhang Yu, Li Hao-wen, Tian Cong-cong
: Based on the observations of a squall line on 11 May 2020 and stratiform precipitation on 6 June 2020 from two X-band dual-polarization phased array weather radars (DP-PAWRs) and an S-band dual-polarization Doppler weather radar (CINRAD/SA-D), the data reliability of DP-PAWR and its ability to detect the fine structures of mesoscale weather systems were assessed. After location matching, the observations of DP-PAWR and CINRAD / SA-D were compared in terms of reflectivity ( Z H ), radial velocity ( V ), differential reflectivity ( Z DR ), and specific differential phase ( K DP ). The results showed that: (1) DP-PAWR has better ability to detect mesoscale weather systems than CINRAD/SA-D; the multi-elevation-angles scanning of the RHI mode enables DP-PAWR to obtain a wider detection range in the vertical direction. (2) DP-PAWR ’ s Z H and V structures are acceptable, while its sensitivity is worse than that of CINRAD/SA-D. The Z H suffers from attenuation and the Z H area distribution is distorted around strong rainfall regions. (3) DP-PAWR ’ s Z DR is close to a normal distribution but slightly smaller than that of CINRAD/SA-D. The K DP products of DP-PAWR have much higher sensitivity, showing a better indication of precipitation. (4) DP-PAWR is capable of revealing a detailed and complete structure of the evolution of the whole storm and the characteristics of particle phase variations during the process of triggering and enhancement of a small cell in the front of a squall line, as well as the merging of the cell with the squall line, which cannot be observed by CINRAD/SA-D. With its fast volume scan feature and dual-polarization detection capability, DP-PAWR shows great potential in further understanding the development and evolution mechanisms of meso-γ-scale and microscale weather systems.
{"title":"Reliability of X-band Dual-polarization Phased Array Radars Through Comparison with an S-band Dual-polarization Doppler Radar","authors":"Zhou Xin-yu, HU Dong-ming, Zhang Yu, Li Hao-wen, Tian Cong-cong","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.017","url":null,"abstract":": Based on the observations of a squall line on 11 May 2020 and stratiform precipitation on 6 June 2020 from two X-band dual-polarization phased array weather radars (DP-PAWRs) and an S-band dual-polarization Doppler weather radar (CINRAD/SA-D), the data reliability of DP-PAWR and its ability to detect the fine structures of mesoscale weather systems were assessed. After location matching, the observations of DP-PAWR and CINRAD / SA-D were compared in terms of reflectivity ( Z H ), radial velocity ( V ), differential reflectivity ( Z DR ), and specific differential phase ( K DP ). The results showed that: (1) DP-PAWR has better ability to detect mesoscale weather systems than CINRAD/SA-D; the multi-elevation-angles scanning of the RHI mode enables DP-PAWR to obtain a wider detection range in the vertical direction. (2) DP-PAWR ’ s Z H and V structures are acceptable, while its sensitivity is worse than that of CINRAD/SA-D. The Z H suffers from attenuation and the Z H area distribution is distorted around strong rainfall regions. (3) DP-PAWR ’ s Z DR is close to a normal distribution but slightly smaller than that of CINRAD/SA-D. The K DP products of DP-PAWR have much higher sensitivity, showing a better indication of precipitation. (4) DP-PAWR is capable of revealing a detailed and complete structure of the evolution of the whole storm and the characteristics of particle phase variations during the process of triggering and enhancement of a small cell in the front of a squall line, as well as the merging of the cell with the squall line, which cannot be observed by CINRAD/SA-D. With its fast volume scan feature and dual-polarization detection capability, DP-PAWR shows great potential in further understanding the development and evolution mechanisms of meso-γ-scale and microscale weather systems.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70477246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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