Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.030
Geng Huan-Tong, Hu Zhong-yan, Wang Tian-lei
{"title":"ConvLSTM Based Temperature Forecast Modification Model for North China","authors":"Geng Huan-Tong, Hu Zhong-yan, Wang Tian-lei","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.030","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83438608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.010
Yuan Shi-jin, Shi Bo, Zhao Zi-jun, M. Bin, Zhou Fei-fan, Duan Wan-suo
{"title":"Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Based on CNOP-P Method: A Case Study of WRF Model and Two Typhoons","authors":"Yuan Shi-jin, Shi Bo, Zhao Zi-jun, M. Bin, Zhou Fei-fan, Duan Wan-suo","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.010","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.019
Liang Cai-ling, Bai Lan-qiang, Yu Xiao-ding, Tan Hao-bo, Huang Xian-xiang, Yan Li-jun, Li Zhao-ming, Zhang Ze-yu
{"title":"A Brief Discussion on the High-Impact Cold-Season Tornado Outbreak During 10-11 December 2021 in the United States","authors":"Liang Cai-ling, Bai Lan-qiang, Yu Xiao-ding, Tan Hao-bo, Huang Xian-xiang, Yan Li-jun, Li Zhao-ming, Zhang Ze-yu","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.019","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70477550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.022
Qin Si, Jia Li, Ding Chen-chen, Ren Fu-min, John L. McBride, Li Guo-ping
{"title":"Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China","authors":"Qin Si, Jia Li, Ding Chen-chen, Ren Fu-min, John L. McBride, Li Guo-ping","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.022","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80175686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.034
Ma Wen-lan, Zhu Lei, Feng Xiao, Zhang Ke-ying
{"title":"Impacts of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Warm-Season Rainfall over Hainan Island","authors":"Ma Wen-lan, Zhu Lei, Feng Xiao, Zhang Ke-ying","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.034","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88926512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.019
Xiao-yu Gao, Yan-luan Lin, Yue Jian
Tropical cyclone(TC) rainfall forecast has remained a challenge. To create initial conditions with high quality for simulation, the present study implemented a data assimilation scheme based on the EnKF method to ingest the satellite-retrieved cloud water path(Cw) and tested it in WRF. The scheme uses the vertical integration of forecasted cloud water content to transform control variables to the observation space, and creates the correlations between Cw and control variables in the flow-dependent background error covariance based on all the ensemble members, so that the observed cloud information can affect the background temperature and humidity. For two typhoons in 2018(Yagi and Rumiba), assimilating Cw significantly increases the simulated rainfalls and TC intensities. In terms of the average equitable threat score of daily moderate to heavy rainfall(5-120 mm), the improvements are over 130%, and the dry biases are cut by about 30%. Such improvements are traced down to the fact that Cw assimilation increases the moisture content, especially that further away from the TC center, which provides more precipitable water for the rainfall, strengthens the TC and broadens the TC size via latent heat release and internal wind field adjustment.
{"title":"EnKF Assimilation of Satellite-retrieved Cloud Water Path to Improve Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecast","authors":"Xiao-yu Gao, Yan-luan Lin, Yue Jian","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.019","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclone(TC) rainfall forecast has remained a challenge. To create initial conditions with high quality for simulation, the present study implemented a data assimilation scheme based on the EnKF method to ingest the satellite-retrieved cloud water path(Cw) and tested it in WRF. The scheme uses the vertical integration of forecasted cloud water content to transform control variables to the observation space, and creates the correlations between Cw and control variables in the flow-dependent background error covariance based on all the ensemble members, so that the observed cloud information can affect the background temperature and humidity. For two typhoons in 2018(Yagi and Rumiba), assimilating Cw significantly increases the simulated rainfalls and TC intensities. In terms of the average equitable threat score of daily moderate to heavy rainfall(5-120 mm), the improvements are over 130%, and the dry biases are cut by about 30%. Such improvements are traced down to the fact that Cw assimilation increases the moisture content, especially that further away from the TC center, which provides more precipitable water for the rainfall, strengthens the TC and broadens the TC size via latent heat release and internal wind field adjustment.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43192082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.018
Wang Ting, Peng Yue-hua, Zhang Bang-lin, Leung Jeremy Cheuk-Hin, Shi Wei-lai
Previous studies showed that 4D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously, and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation, which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.
{"title":"Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model","authors":"Wang Ting, Peng Yue-hua, Zhang Bang-lin, Leung Jeremy Cheuk-Hin, Shi Wei-lai","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.018","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies showed that 4D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing \"optimal\" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously, and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation, which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47960869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.020
Xin Jia-jie, Yu Hui, Chen Pei-yan
This study presented an evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts from five global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) during 2015-2019 in the western North Pacific region. Notable error features include the underestimation of the TC intensity by ensemble mean forecast and the under-dispersion of the probability forecasts.The root mean square errors (brier scores) of the ensemble mean(probability forecasts) generally decrease consecutively at long lead times during the five years, but fluctuate between certain values at short lead times.Positive forecast skill appeared in the most recent two years (2018-2019) at 120 h or later as compared with the climatology forecasts. However, there is no obvious improvement for the intensity change forecasts during the 5-year period, with abrupt intensity change remaining a big challenge. The probability forecasts show no skill for strong TCs at all the lead times. Among the five EPSs, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best for the intensity forecast, while NCEPGEFS ranks the best for the intensity change forecast, according to the evaluation of ensemble mean and dispersion.As for the other probability forecast evaluation, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best at lead times shorter than 72 h, while NCEP-GEFS ranks the best later on.
{"title":"Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts from Five Global EnsemblePrediction Systems During 2015-2019","authors":"Xin Jia-jie, Yu Hui, Chen Pei-yan","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.020","url":null,"abstract":"This study presented an evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts from five global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) during 2015-2019 in the western North Pacific region. Notable error features include the underestimation of the TC intensity by ensemble mean forecast and the under-dispersion of the probability forecasts.The root mean square errors (brier scores) of the ensemble mean(probability forecasts) generally decrease consecutively at long lead times during the five years, but fluctuate between certain values at short lead times.Positive forecast skill appeared in the most recent two years (2018-2019) at 120 h or later as compared with the climatology forecasts. However, there is no obvious improvement for the intensity change forecasts during the 5-year period, with abrupt intensity change remaining a big challenge. The probability forecasts show no skill for strong TCs at all the lead times. Among the five EPSs, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best for the intensity forecast, while NCEPGEFS ranks the best for the intensity change forecast, according to the evaluation of ensemble mean and dispersion.As for the other probability forecast evaluation, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best at lead times shorter than 72 h, while NCEP-GEFS ranks the best later on.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42324810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.027
Song Lang, Deng Tao, Liang Zhen-ning, Wu Sheng, He Guo-wen, Li Fei, Wu Meng, Wu Dui
Wavelet analysis was applied to lidar observations to retrieve the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) over Guangzhou from September 2013 to November 2014 over Guangzhou. Impact of the boundary effect and the wavelet scale factor on the accuracy of the retrieved PBLH has been explored thoroughly. In addition, the PBLH diurnal variations and the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and PBLH during polluted and clean episodes were studied. Results indicate that the most steady retrieved PBLH can be obtained when scale factor is chosen between 300-390 m. The retrieved maximum and minimum PBLH in the annual mean diurnal cycle were ~1100 m and ~650 m, respectively. The PBLH was significantly lower in the dry season than in the wet season, with the average highest PBLH in the dry season and the wet season being ~1050 m and ~1200 m respectively. Compared to the wet season, the development of PBLH in the dry season was delayed by at least one hour due to the seasonal cycle of solar radiation. Episode analysis indicated that the PBLH was ~50% higher during clean episodes than during haze episodes. The average highest PBLH in the haze episodes and clean episodes were ~800 m and ~1300 m, respectively. A significant negative correlation between PBLH and PM2.5 concentration(r=-0.55**) is discovered.According to China "Ambient Air Quality Standard", the PBLH values in good and slightly polluted conditions were 1/6-1/3 lower than that in excellent conditions, while the corresponding PM2.5 concentration were ~2-2.5 times higher.
{"title":"Retrieval of Boundary Layer Height and Its Influence on PM 2.5 Concentration Based on Lidar Observation over Guangzhou","authors":"Song Lang, Deng Tao, Liang Zhen-ning, Wu Sheng, He Guo-wen, Li Fei, Wu Meng, Wu Dui","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.027","url":null,"abstract":"Wavelet analysis was applied to lidar observations to retrieve the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) over Guangzhou from September 2013 to November 2014 over Guangzhou. Impact of the boundary effect and the wavelet scale factor on the accuracy of the retrieved PBLH has been explored thoroughly. In addition, the PBLH diurnal variations and the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and PBLH during polluted and clean episodes were studied. Results indicate that the most steady retrieved PBLH can be obtained when scale factor is chosen between 300-390 m. The retrieved maximum and minimum PBLH in the annual mean diurnal cycle were ~1100 m and ~650 m, respectively. The PBLH was significantly lower in the dry season than in the wet season, with the average highest PBLH in the dry season and the wet season being ~1050 m and ~1200 m respectively. Compared to the wet season, the development of PBLH in the dry season was delayed by at least one hour due to the seasonal cycle of solar radiation. Episode analysis indicated that the PBLH was ~50% higher during clean episodes than during haze episodes. The average highest PBLH in the haze episodes and clean episodes were ~800 m and ~1300 m, respectively. A significant negative correlation between PBLH and PM2.5 concentration(r=-0.55**) is discovered.According to China \"Ambient Air Quality Standard\", the PBLH values in good and slightly polluted conditions were 1/6-1/3 lower than that in excellent conditions, while the corresponding PM2.5 concentration were ~2-2.5 times higher.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48059014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.021
Chen Yu-xu, Jia Li, J. Zuo, Ding Chen-chen, Ren Fu-min, LI Guo-ping
In this study, the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model(DSAEF_LTP model) for landfalling tropical cyclone(LTC) precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of 10 LTCs that occurred over China in 2018. With similarity region scheme(SRS) parameter values added and TC intensity introduced to the generalized initial value(GIV), four groups of precipitation simulation experiments were designed to verify the forecasting ability of the improved model for more TC samples. Results show that the simulation ability of the DSAEF_LTP model can be optimized regardless of whether adding SRS values only, or introducing TC intensity into GIV, while the experiment with both the two improvements shows a more prominent advantage in simulating the heavier precipitation of LTCs. Compared with four NWP models(i.e., ECMWF, GFS, GRAPES and SMS-WARMS), the overall forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model achieves a better result in simulating precipitation at the thresholds over 250 mm and performs slightly better than NWP models at the thresholds over 100 mm.
{"title":"On the Improvement of the DSAEF_LTP Model to Heavy Precipitation Simulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China in 2018","authors":"Chen Yu-xu, Jia Li, J. Zuo, Ding Chen-chen, Ren Fu-min, LI Guo-ping","doi":"10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.021","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model(DSAEF_LTP model) for landfalling tropical cyclone(LTC) precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of 10 LTCs that occurred over China in 2018. With similarity region scheme(SRS) parameter values added and TC intensity introduced to the generalized initial value(GIV), four groups of precipitation simulation experiments were designed to verify the forecasting ability of the improved model for more TC samples. Results show that the simulation ability of the DSAEF_LTP model can be optimized regardless of whether adding SRS values only, or introducing TC intensity into GIV, while the experiment with both the two improvements shows a more prominent advantage in simulating the heavier precipitation of LTCs. Compared with four NWP models(i.e., ECMWF, GFS, GRAPES and SMS-WARMS), the overall forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model achieves a better result in simulating precipitation at the thresholds over 250 mm and performs slightly better than NWP models at the thresholds over 100 mm.","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49001217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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