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STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC REGION WITH CLASSIFICATION MODEL 西北太平洋地区热带气旋路径的分类模式随机模拟
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.005
Hu Wen-feng, L. Da-wei, Shao Meng-kai
Accurate simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone risk assessment. Against the spatial characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region, stochastic simulation method based on classification model is used to simulate tropical cyclone tracks in this region. Such simulation includes the classification method, the genesis model, the traveling model, and the lysis model. Tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region are classified into five categories on the basis of its movement characteristics and steering positions. In the genesis model, Gaussian kernel probability density functions with the biased cross validation method are used to simulate the annual occurrence number and genesis positions. The traveling model is established on the basis of the mean and mean square error of the historical 6h latitude and longitude displacements. The termination probability is used as the discrimination standard in the lysis model. Then, this stochastic simulation method of tropical cyclone tracks is applied and qualitatively evaluated with different diagnostics. Results show that the tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific can be satisfactorily simulated with this classification model.
准确模拟热带气旋路径是进行热带气旋风险评估的先决条件。针对西北太平洋地区热带气旋路径的空间特征,采用基于分类模式的随机模拟方法对该地区热带气旋路径进行模拟。这种模拟包括分类方法、成因模型、行进模型和裂解模型。根据西北太平洋地区热带气旋的运动特征和转向位置,将其分为五类。在成因模型中,采用高斯核概率密度函数和有偏交叉验证方法模拟年发生数和成因位置。根据历史经纬度位移的平均误差和均方误差建立了旅行模型。在裂解模型中,以终止概率作为判别标准。然后,应用该方法对热带气旋路径进行了随机模拟,并用不同的诊断方法对其进行了定性评价。结果表明,该分类模式能较好地模拟西北太平洋热带气旋路径。
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引用次数: 2
IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION, MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING-A CASE STUDY 垂直分辨率、模式顶和资料同化对天气预报的影响——以实例研究为例
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.007
Shao Min, Zhang Yu, XU Jian-jun
The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U. S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis is needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.
本文研究了平流层初始条件和垂直分辨率对平流层的影响,通过提高模式顶、改进垂直分辨率和同化现有观测资料(包括常规观测和卫星观测)对美国大陆冬季短期天气预报的影响。根据常规观测分析了初始和预测的风和温度廓线。一般来说,当使用较高的模型顶部分辨率和精确的垂直分辨率时,初始风偏和温度偏廓线的调整效果较好。对流层下部的初始风廓线和温度廓线也观察到负面影响。与只升高模式顶的结果不同,当使用较高的模式顶时,对实际观测资料的同化导致对流层和平流层初始条件的显著改善。利用调整后的平流层初始条件和改进的垂直分辨率所作的预测总体上显示出较好的预测技巧。以精确的垂直分辨率提高模式顶所引起的主要改进,以及数据同化所引起的主要改进,都位于对流层顶和平流层下层。在预测的近地面风和对流层低层温度方面也观察到负面影响。这些负面影响与更多平流层信息造成的不确定性以及一些物理过程有关。实例分析表明,提高模式顶,增加平流层垂直层数,并进行同化处理,可略微提高降水分值。但由于数据同化带来的不确定性,需要进行更多的分析。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Dynamic and Thermal Forcing on the Intensity Evolution of the Vortices over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer 动力和热力强迫对青藏高原寒带夏季涡旋强度演变的影响
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.022
Gao Yuan, Yao Xiu-ping
: The Tibetan Plateau Vortex (TPV) is one of the main weather systems causing heavy rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer. Based on the second Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis datasets provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 8 cases of TPV over the Tibetan Plateau generated in June-August with a lifetime of 42 hours are composited and analyzed to reveal the impact of dynamic and thermal forcing on the intensity evolution of TPVs. The results are as follows. (1) The TPVs appear obviously at 500 hPa and the TPVs intensity (TPVI) shows an obvious diurnal variation with the strongest at 00LT and the weakest at 12LT (LT=UTC+6h). (2) A strong South Asia High at 200 hPa as well as a shrunken Western Pacific Subtropical High at 500 hPa provide favorable conditions for the TPVI increasing. (3) The vorticity budget reveals that the divergence is indicative of the variation of the TPVI. The TPVI decreases when the convergence center at 500 hPa and the divergence center at 200 hPa lie in the east of the TPVs center and increases when both centers coincide with the TPVs center. (4) Potential vorticity (PV) increases with the enhancement of the TPVI. The PV budget shows that the variation of the TPVI is closely related to the diabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau. The increased sensible heating and radiative heating in the boundary layer intensify the ascent and latent heating release. When the diabatic heating center rises to 400 hPa, it facilitates the development of the TPVs.
青藏高原低涡(TPV)是造成青藏高原北方夏季强降水的主要天气系统之一。利用美国国家航空航天局(NASA)提供的第二次现代回溯分析研究与应用(MERRA-2)再分析资料,对6 - 8月青藏高原8次寿命为42 h的TPV进行了综合分析,揭示了动力强迫和热强迫对TPV强度演变的影响。结果如下:(1) 500 hPa时TPVs明显出现,TPVI的日变化明显,00LT最强,12LT (LT=UTC+6h)最弱。(2) 200 hPa南亚强高压和500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压的缩小为TPVI的增加提供了有利条件。(3)涡度收支表明,辐散指示了TPVI的变化。当500 hPa辐合中心和200 hPa辐合中心位于TPVs中心以东时,TPVI减小,当两者重合于TPVs中心时,TPVI增大。(4)位涡量(PV)随TPVI的增强而增大。PV收支表明,TPVI的变化与青藏高原的非绝热加热密切相关。边界层感热和辐射加热的增加加剧了上升和潜热释放。当非绝热中心上升到400hpa时,有利于TPVs的发展。
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引用次数: 1
Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (1977–2018) 1977-2018年阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾热带气旋活动的统计与比较分析
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.038
Xiao-ting Fan, L. Ying, Lyu Ai-min, Long-sheng Liu
A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results show that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has significantly increased over time over the AS and insignificantly decreased over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones over the AS and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and OctoberNovember, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1-H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones over the AS break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those over the BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones over the AS are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations are meridionally (zonally) distributed in May-June (October-November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by tropical cyclones that track west and northwest, accounting for about 74.6% of all the tropical cyclones there, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33% of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the AS are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in the autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean is affected by topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas.
利用联合台风预警中心1977 - 2018年发布的最佳路径数据和风半径资料,对阿拉伯海(AS)和孟加拉湾(BoB)的热带气旋活动进行了统计比较分析。结果表明:热带气旋发生频率和持续时间的年际变化在东半球呈显著上升趋势,在东半球呈不显著下降趋势。热带气旋的月频率表现出明显的双峰特征,高峰分别出现在5月和10月。热带气旋的最大频率出现在第二个高峰,因为秋季中层的水分含量较高。然而,由于初夏海面温度较高,强气旋(H1-H5级)出现在第一个高峰的比例最大。热带气旋在第一次高峰时爆发较晚,在第二次高峰时活动结束较早。这与两个盆地西南季风的起止时间有关。南亚热带气旋主要产生于东部盆地,而在西南偏南,由于低层正涡度带的季节性运动,热带气旋的发生地点在经向(纬向)上分布于5 - 6月(10 - 11月)。阿拉伯海以西向和西北向的热带气旋为主,约占所有热带气旋的74.6%,而东北向的热带气旋仅占25.4%。三种路径在BoB中所占比例相近,各占热带气旋总数的33%左右。热带气旋的平均强度和大小在初夏比秋季要大,而热带气旋的平均强度和大小在初夏比秋季要大。北印度洋热带气旋的不对称结构受地形的影响,34 kt地面风的最长半径往往位于两个海区热带气旋环流的东部象限。
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引用次数: 10
Impacts of Horizontal and Vertical Resolutions on the Microphysical Structure and Boundary Layer Fluxes of Typhoon Hato (2017) 水平和垂直分辨率对台风天鸽微物理结构和边界层通量的影响(2017)
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.002
Zhao Yang-jie, Li Jiang-nan, Liu Fang-zhou, Ruan Zi-xi
We set four sets of simulation experiments to explore the impacts of horizontal resolution (HR) and vertical resolution (VR) on the microphysical structure and boundary layer fluxes of tropical cyclone (TC) Hato (2017). The study shows that higher HR tends to strengthen TC. Increasing VR in the upper layers tends to weaken TC, while increasing VR in the lower layers tends to strengthen TC. Simulated amounts of all hydrometeors were larger with higher HR. Increasing VR at the upper level enhanced the mixing ratios of cloud ice and cloud snow, while increasing VR at the lower level elevated the mixing ratios of graupel and rainwater. HR has greater impact on the distributions of hydrometeors. Higher HR has a more complete ring structure of the eyewall and more concentrated hydrometeors along the cloud wall. Increasing VR at the lower level has little impact on the distribution of TC hydrometeors, while increasing VR at the upper level enhances the cloud thickness of the eyewall area. Surface latent heat flux (SLHF) is influenced greatly by resolution. Higher HR leads to larger water vapor fluxes and larger latent heat, which would result in a stronger TC. A large amount of false latent heat was generated when HR was too high, leading to an extremely strong TC, VR has a smaller impact on SLHF than HR. But increasing VR at the upper-level reduces the SLHF and weakens TC, and elevating VR at the lower-level increases the SLHF and strengthens TC. The changes in surface water vapor flux and SLHF were practically identical and the simulation results were improved when HR and VR were more coordinated. The friction velocity was greater with higher VR. Enhancing VR at the lower level increased the friction velocity, while increasing VR at the upper level reduced it.
为了探讨水平分辨率(HR)和垂直分辨率(VR)对热带气旋(TC)天兔(2017)的微物理结构和边界层通量的影响,我们设置了四组模拟实验。研究表明,HR越高,TC越强。增加上层VR有减弱TC的趋势,增加下层VR有增强TC的趋势。所有水成物的模拟量随HR的增大而增大。上层VR的增加增强了云冰和云雪的混合比,下层VR的增加提高了霰和雨水的混合比。HR对水成物的分布影响较大。HR越高,眼壁环状结构越完整,沿云壁的水成物越集中。增加低层VR对TC水成物的分布影响不大,而增加上层VR会增加眼壁面积的云厚。地表潜热通量受分辨率的影响较大。HR越高,水汽通量越大,潜热越大,TC越强。HR过高时产生大量假潜热,导致TC极强,VR对SLHF的影响小于HR。而上层VR的升高使SLHF降低,TC减弱;下层VR的升高使SLHF增加,TC增强。地表水汽通量和地表水汽通量的变化基本一致,HR和VR越协调,模拟结果越好。摩擦速度随VR的增大而增大。增加下层的VR会增加摩擦速度,而增加上层的VR会降低摩擦速度。
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引用次数: 1
Performance Evaluation of the GRAPES Model in Wind Simulations Over South China GRAPES模式在华南地区风场模拟中的性能评价
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.001
Zhong Shuixin, Chen Zi-tong, Ding Wei-yu, XU Dao-sheng, Zhang Yanxia, Wu Kai-xin, Liang Jia-hao, T. Qun, Wang Li-wen
In the present study, the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was assessed. The simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south China. The results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the wind. It showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south China. GRAPES also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnal-to-morning period, as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the afternoon. Although GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile, it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 hPa. Though the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation, GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation, especially in the lower and upper troposphere.
本文对GRAPES模式在华南地区风场模拟中的性能进行了评价。利用地面观测和南方两个测深站对模拟结果进行了评价。结果表明,GRAPES模式能较好地模拟风的分布和日变化。特别是珠江三角洲地区和江西南部以及华南沿海地区,南风风速普遍高估。在夜间至早晨期间,在广西东部和江西南部也有大量的地面风向相反的站点,并且在下午沿海地区的地面风总体高估。GRAPES虽然能够模拟垂直风廓线的一般演化特征,但对900 hPa以上风速的估计偏低,对900 hPa以下风速的估计过高。虽然重力波阻力参数化方案被证明是缓解风模拟系统偏差的有效方法,但GRAPES在风模拟中仍然存在较大的误差,特别是对流层下层和上层。
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引用次数: 2
Impact of Different Cloud Microphysics Parameterization Schemes on Typhoon Intensity and Structure 不同云微物理参数化方案对台风强度和结构的影响
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.011
Wang Chen-x, Ying Ming
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引用次数: 2
Evaluation of Precipitation in Multi-Generation Reanalyses with Land Observations over Zhejiang Province 浙江省多代陆地观测降水再分析的评价
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.014
M. Hao, Yin Yue, Xiao Jing-jing, Xue Zhe-yong, Yang Ming, Gao Da-wei, GE Jing-wen
{"title":"Evaluation of Precipitation in Multi-Generation Reanalyses with Land Observations over Zhejiang Province","authors":"M. Hao, Yin Yue, Xiao Jing-jing, Xue Zhe-yong, Yang Ming, Gao Da-wei, GE Jing-wen","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Comparison and Analysis of Two Different Calculation Schemes of SLEVE- Hybrid Coordinate in GRAPES_MESO Model GRAPES_MESO模型中SLEVE- Hybrid坐标两种不同计算方案的比较与分析
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.009
Li Chao, Liu Xingliang, Huo Jianglin
{"title":"Comparison and Analysis of Two Different Calculation Schemes of SLEVE- Hybrid Coordinate in GRAPES_MESO Model","authors":"Li Chao, Liu Xingliang, Huo Jianglin","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70475737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Recognition Method of Hydrometeor in Tropical Cyclones by Using the GPM Dual‐Frequency Precipitation Radar GPM双频降水雷达对热带气旋中水流星的识别方法
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.015
Qiao Jun-qi, Ai Wei-hua, H. Xiong, HU Shen-sen, Yan Wei
{"title":"A Recognition Method of Hydrometeor in Tropical Cyclones by Using the GPM Dual‐Frequency Precipitation Radar","authors":"Qiao Jun-qi, Ai Wei-hua, H. Xiong, HU Shen-sen, Yan Wei","doi":"10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.015","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70476145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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