PurposeThis paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.Design/methodology/approach The author employs the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. The author uses two definitions of informal employment: (1) employment without a written agreement and (2) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, he uses a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.FindingsAfter controlling for observed heterogeneity, the author finds that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
{"title":"Informal Employment and Wages in Poland","authors":"J. Liwiński","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3873986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3873986","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.Design/methodology/approach The author employs the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. The author uses two definitions of informal employment: (1) employment without a written agreement and (2) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, he uses a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.FindingsAfter controlling for observed heterogeneity, the author finds that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126431575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Poniatowski, Adam Śmietanka, M. Bonch-Osmolovskiy
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).The Policy Gap and its components remained stable. For the EU overall, the average Policy Gap level was 44.24 percent. Of this, in 2018, 10.07 percentage points were due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap) and 34.17 were due to the application of exemptions without the right to deduct.The results of the econometric analysis show that the VAT Gap is influenced by a group of factors relating to the current economic conditions, institutional environment, and economic structure as well as to the measures and actions of tax administrations. Out of a broad set of tested variables, GDP growth and general government balance appeared to explain a substantial set of VAT Gap variation across time and countries. Within the control of tax administrations, share of IT expenditure proved to have the highest statistical significance in explaining the size of the VAT Gap. In addition, the VAT Gap appeared to be inter-related with the values of risky imports of goods, indicating the role of fraud in driving the overall share of the VAT Gap.Since the COVID-19 recession will likely have a dire impact on the EU economies, the VAT Gap in 2020 is forecasted to increase. If the EU economy contracts by 7.4 percent in 2020 and the general government deficit jumps as forecasted in the Spring Forecast of the European Commission, the Gap could increase by 4.1 percentage points year-over year up to 13.7 percent
本研究包含2018年增值税缺口估算、分析前一年2019年使用简化方法的快速估算，以及2014-2017年的修订估算。它还包括2018年报告中发起和最初报告的增值税差距决定因素计量经济学分析的更新和扩展结果(Poniatowski et al.， 2018)。报道了一项新颖的计量经济学分析，以预测冠状病毒危机及其导致的经济衰退对2020年增值税差距演变的潜在影响。2018年，大多数欧盟成员国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长速度略有下降，但提高税收合规性的经济条件仍然有利。我们估计，2018年增值税总应纳税义务(VTTL)增长3.6%，而增值税收入增长4.2%，导致增值税差距在相对和名义上都有所缩小。相对而言，欧盟范围内的差距下降到11%和1400亿欧元。快速估计显示，2019年增值税差距可能会继续缩小。在欧盟28国中，差距最小的是瑞典(0.7%)、克罗地亚(3.5%)和芬兰(3.6%)，差距最大的是罗马尼亚(33.8%)、希腊(30.1%)和立陶宛(25.9%)。总体而言，欧盟28个成员国中有一半的差距超过9.2%。按名义价值计算，缺口最大的是意大利(354亿欧元)、英国(235亿欧元)和德国(220亿欧元)。政策缺口及其组成部分保持稳定。就欧盟整体而言，平均政策差距水平为44.24%。其中，在2018年，10.07个百分点是由于适用各种降低和超降低的税率(税率差距)，34.17个百分点是由于适用无抵扣权的豁免。计量经济学分析的结果表明，增值税差距受到与当前经济状况、制度环境、经济结构以及税收管理措施和行动有关的一系列因素的影响。在一系列广泛的测试变量中，GDP增长和一般政府平衡似乎可以解释不同时间和国家的增值税差距变化。在税务管理部门的控制下，信息技术支出的份额被证明在解释增值税差距的大小方面具有最高的统计意义。此外，增值税缺口似乎与风险进口商品的价值相互关联，表明欺诈在推动增值税缺口的总体份额方面所起的作用。由于新冠肺炎经济衰退可能会对欧盟经济产生严重影响，预计2020年增值税缺口将扩大。如果2020年欧盟经济萎缩7.4%，而政府总体赤字如欧盟委员会春季预测所预测的那样大幅增加，那么到2020年，缺口可能会同比增加4.1个百分点，达到13.7%，达到1640亿欧元。2020年的加息可能比前三年观察到的差距逐渐缩小更为明显。此外，要恢复到2018年和2019年观察到的增值税差距水平需要时间，并需要税务部门采取重大行动。本报告是为欧盟委员会(DG TAXUD)为TAXUD/2019/AO-14项目“欧盟28个成员国增值税差距的研究和报告”撰写的，是2013年至2019年期间发布的七份报告的后续报告。
{"title":"Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report","authors":"G. Poniatowski, Adam Śmietanka, M. Bonch-Osmolovskiy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3744157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3744157","url":null,"abstract":"This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).The Policy Gap and its components remained stable. For the EU overall, the average Policy Gap level was 44.24 percent. Of this, in 2018, 10.07 percentage points were due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap) and 34.17 were due to the application of exemptions without the right to deduct.The results of the econometric analysis show that the VAT Gap is influenced by a group of factors relating to the current economic conditions, institutional environment, and economic structure as well as to the measures and actions of tax administrations. Out of a broad set of tested variables, GDP growth and general government balance appeared to explain a substantial set of VAT Gap variation across time and countries. Within the control of tax administrations, share of IT expenditure proved to have the highest statistical significance in explaining the size of the VAT Gap. In addition, the VAT Gap appeared to be inter-related with the values of risky imports of goods, indicating the role of fraud in driving the overall share of the VAT Gap.Since the COVID-19 recession will likely have a dire impact on the EU economies, the VAT Gap in 2020 is forecasted to increase. If the EU economy contracts by 7.4 percent in 2020 and the general government deficit jumps as forecasted in the Spring Forecast of the European Commission, the Gap could increase by 4.1 percentage points year-over year up to 13.7 percent","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123022277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its inter-national role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractive-ness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
{"title":"Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3678015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3678015","url":null,"abstract":"The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its inter-national role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractive-ness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125750903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrzej Halesiak, Ernest Pytlarczyk, Stefan Kawalec, M. Wieckowski
English Abstract: In a properly functioning economy, finance has important role to play in making main sectors of the economy – production, trade, services – to thrive. One of the most important – and often unappreciated – channels by which finance affects the processes taking place in the real sector is the selection of investment projects. It is banks and financial intermediaries that to a great degree decide which projects are carried out in the economy at a given moment, and which are not. If financial institutions are excessively conservative (which today is often an effect of the tight regulatory environment), they will prefer low-risk projects with high levels of collateral (e.g. mortgage loans). A financial system oriented this way will rarely be a source of problems, but at the same time not inclined to finance innovative projects with high potential to benefit the economy. Thus for any economy, a very important question is whether its regulatory framework smartly balances both of these aspects: financial system safety and the need to take on risk.
When analyzing the functioning of the financial system, it’s worth noting the gradual blurring of certain traditional boundaries. While decades ago households were the main source of savings in the economy, and the borrowers were enterprises and the public sector, today both households and companies are on both sides, as suppliers and receivers of capital. The boundary between the functioning of banks and capital markets is also increasingly blurred. Today banks operate broadly through the capital market, both as acquirers of securities and as issuers.
One area that has been developing dynamically in recent years is the flow of financial resources bypassing traditional intermediaries: direct lending through the peer-to-peer (P2P - direct financing of a project by business partners) and crowdfunding platforms (fundraising by collecting money online).
Polish Abstract: W dobrze funkcjonującej gospodarce finanse mają przede wszystkim charakter wspierający – umożliwiają rozwój produkcji, handlu, usług itd. Jednym z najbardziej istotnych – a często niedocenianych - kanałów poprzez który oddziałują one na procesy zachodzące w sferze realnej, jest dokonywanie przez instytucje finansowe selekcji projektów inwestycyjnych. To właśnie banki i pośrednicy finansowi w dużej mierze decydują o tym, które projekty są, a które nie są w gospodarce w danym momencie realizowane. Jeśli instytucje finansowe charakteryzuje nadmierny konserwatyzm (w dzisiejszych czasach często pochodna ograniczeń regulacyjnych), to będą preferować bezpieczne projekty o wysokim poziomie zabezpieczeń (np. kredyty hipoteczne). Tak ukierunkowany system finansowy nie będzie z reguły źródłem problemów, ale równocześnie nie będzie też skłonny finansować innowacyjnych projektów o dużym potencjale korzyści dla gospodarki. Dlatego też bardzo istotną kwestią z punktu widzenia danej gospodarki jest to, aby
摘要:在一个正常运转的经济体中，金融在促进生产、贸易、服务等主要经济部门繁荣方面发挥着重要作用。投资项目的选择是金融影响实体部门进程的最重要的渠道之一，但往往不被重视。在很大程度上，是银行和金融中介机构决定了在特定时刻哪些项目在经济中得到实施，哪些项目不被实施。如果金融机构过于保守(这在今天通常是严格监管环境的结果)，他们将更喜欢抵押品水平高的低风险项目(例如抵押贷款)。以这种方式为导向的金融体系很少会成为问题的根源，但同时也不倾向于为具有巨大经济效益潜力的创新项目提供资金。因此，对任何经济体来说，一个非常重要的问题是，其监管框架是否巧妙地平衡了这两个方面:金融体系安全和承担风险的需要。在分析金融体系的运作时，值得注意的是，某些传统界限正在逐渐模糊。几十年前，家庭是经济中储蓄的主要来源，借款人是企业和公共部门，而今天，家庭和公司都是双方，既是资本的提供者，也是资本的接受者。银行运作与资本市场之间的界限也越来越模糊。如今，银行通过资本市场广泛开展业务，既作为证券的收购方，也作为发行方。近年来蓬勃发展的一个领域是绕过传统中介机构的金融资源流动:通过点对点(P2P——商业伙伴对项目的直接融资)和众筹平台(通过在线集资集资)的直接贷款。摘要:wdobrze funkcjonującej gospodance finance majeprezede wszystkim字符wspierający - umożliwiają rozwój produkji, handlu, usług itd。Jednym z najbardziej istotnych - a często niedocenianych - kanałów poprzez który oddziałują one na process zachodzące wserze realnej, jest do-konywanie przez instytucje finansowe selekcji projektów inwestycyjnych。以właśnie banki为例，pośrednicy finansowi为例，dużej mierze decydujotym, które projekty为例，które nie为例，gospoddance为例，实现了经济增长的动力。Jeśli instytucje finansowe charteryzuje nadministrerny konserwa-tyzm (w dzisiejszych czasach często pochodna ograniczez regulacyjnych)，以będą preferowaki bezpieczne projekty o wysokim poziomie zabezpieczez (np.)kredyty hipotecz-ne)。Tak ukierunkowany system finansowy nie będzie z re-guły źródłem problemów, ale równocześnie nie będzie teje skłonny finansowaki innowacyjnych projektów o dużym po-tencjale korzyści dla gospodarki。platetojezbardzo istoto - nkwestidoz punktu widzenia danejgospodarki jest to, aby两个区域，并有规律地使用:umiejętnie wyważały oba aspekty: bezpieczeństwo i potrzebdoponoszenia ryzyka。Analizując funkcjonowanie systemu finansowego warto zwrócić uwagona kwestiostopniowego zacierania sionie-których tradycyjnych granic。另外，还可以通过“△△jeszzze kilkadziesiąt”、“△głównym źródłem oszczędności△gospodarce△były△gospodarstwa domowe (pożyczkobiorcami przedsiębior-stwa)”、“△zarówno△gospodarstwa jak△公司△występują△reguły△强△jako do-stawcy△biorcy△kapitału”等方式获取信息。Coraz bardziej rozmywa sizi także granica pomiędzy funkcjonowaniem banków, a rynku kapi-tałowego - dzizibanki powszechnie działają poprzez rynek kapitałowy, zarówno jako nabywcy papierów wartościo-wych, jak tezeich emitenci。Rozwijający sięw dynamicznie w ostatnich latach obszar,到przepływśrodkow finansowych z pominięciem tradycyj-nych阿宝średnikow:阿宝życzanie w ramach rozwią咱ńtakich,木菠萝点对点(P2P - bezpośrednie finansowanie projektu przez partnerow bizne-sowych), czy集资”(finansowanie konkretnego projektu przez热点——łeczność,w formie zwykle internetowej zbiorki小的ędzy)。
{"title":"Financing for the Polish Economy: Prospects and Threats (Finansowanie polskiej gospodarki: perspektywy i zagrożenia)","authors":"Andrzej Halesiak, Ernest Pytlarczyk, Stefan Kawalec, M. Wieckowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3410404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3410404","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English Abstract:</b> In a properly functioning economy, finance has important role to play in making main sectors of the economy – production, trade, services – to thrive. One of the most important – and often unappreciated – channels by which finance affects the processes taking place in the real sector is the selection of investment projects. It is banks and financial intermediaries that to a great degree decide which projects are carried out in the economy at a given moment, and which are not. If financial institutions are excessively conservative (which today is often an effect of the tight regulatory environment), they will prefer low-risk projects with high levels of collateral (e.g. mortgage loans). A financial system oriented this way will rarely be a source of problems, but at the same time not inclined to finance innovative projects with high potential to benefit the economy. Thus for any economy, a very important question is whether its regulatory framework smartly balances both of these aspects: financial system safety and the need to take on risk.<br><br>When analyzing the functioning of the financial system, it’s worth noting the gradual blurring of certain traditional boundaries. While decades ago households were the main source of savings in the economy, and the borrowers were enterprises and the public sector, today both households and companies are on both sides, as suppliers and receivers of capital. The boundary between the functioning of banks and capital markets is also increasingly blurred. Today banks operate broadly through the capital market, both as acquirers of securities and as issuers.<br><br>One area that has been developing dynamically in recent years is the flow of financial resources bypassing traditional intermediaries: direct lending through the peer-to-peer (P2P - direct financing of a project by business partners) and crowdfunding platforms (fundraising by collecting money online).<br><br><b>Polish Abstract:</b> W dobrze funkcjonującej gospodarce finanse mają przede wszystkim charakter wspierający – umożliwiają rozwój produkcji, handlu, usług itd. Jednym z najbardziej istotnych – a często niedocenianych - kanałów poprzez który oddziałują one na procesy zachodzące w sferze realnej, jest dokonywanie przez instytucje finansowe selekcji projektów inwestycyjnych. To właśnie banki i pośrednicy finansowi w dużej mierze decydują o tym, które projekty są, a które nie są w gospodarce w danym momencie realizowane. Jeśli instytucje finansowe charakteryzuje nadmierny konserwatyzm (w dzisiejszych czasach często pochodna ograniczeń regulacyjnych), to będą preferować bezpieczne projekty o wysokim poziomie zabezpieczeń (np. kredyty hipoteczne). Tak ukierunkowany system finansowy nie będzie z reguły źródłem problemów, ale równocześnie nie będzie też skłonny finansować innowacyjnych projektów o dużym potencjale korzyści dla gospodarki. Dlatego też bardzo istotną kwestią z punktu widzenia danej gospodarki jest to, aby ","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"192 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114223498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing.
{"title":"Economic Recovery and Inflation","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3168510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3168510","url":null,"abstract":"In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"219 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123027475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.
{"title":"How Not to Get Stuck in the Middle Lessons for the Commonwealth of Independent States from Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"Kamil Pruchnik, J. Zowczak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3065968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3065968","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127549527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper is a summary of the exchange of knowledge and experience that took place in the course of the project “Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine” co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016–2017. Five institutions took part in the project: Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw, Poland), Center for Social and Economic Research Ukraine (Kiev, Ukraine), INEKO Institute for Economic and Social Reform (Bratislava, Slovak Republic), EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy (Prague, Czech Republic), and Kopint-Tarki Institute for Economic Research (Budapest, Hungary).
{"title":"Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Final Report","authors":"Iakov Frizis, Krzysztof Głowacki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3076828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3076828","url":null,"abstract":"The paper is a summary of the exchange of knowledge and experience that took place in the course of the project “Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine” co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016–2017. Five institutions took part in the project: Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw, Poland), Center for Social and Economic Research Ukraine (Kiev, Ukraine), INEKO Institute for Economic and Social Reform (Bratislava, Slovak Republic), EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy (Prague, Czech Republic), and Kopint-Tarki Institute for Economic Research (Budapest, Hungary).","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114860906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Using a gravity-based approach, this report examines the future profile of European Union (EU) world market shares at the aggregate and sectoral level. It further points towards the changing patterns of trade within the EU. Based on the results, some conclusions on EU industrial policy are drawn.
{"title":"The Future Development of EU Exports in a Global Context","authors":"Robert Stehrer, S. Leitner, Roman Stöllinger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3076869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3076869","url":null,"abstract":"Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Using a gravity-based approach, this report examines the future profile of European Union (EU) world market shares at the aggregate and sectoral level. It further points towards the changing patterns of trade within the EU. Based on the results, some conclusions on EU industrial policy are drawn.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131203863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
English Abstract: Growth in the European Union since the outbreak of the global financial crisis is slower (1) than before the crisis, (2) than the trend would indicate, (3) than forecast and (4) than in the United States. The factors driving its weakness lie more on the supply side than the demand side. The loss of potential output after the crisis was exacerbated by inequalities from before the crisis; fiscal stimulus from 2007-2009, increasing public expenditure despite the lack of fiscal space; excessive liquidity support for banks; and inflexibility of the market for goods at the moment the crisis broke out. The problems with growth may deepen and become permanent if social support for anti-market parties continues to grow. Extremist parties are supported by divergence among the countries of the “old” EU and the slowdown of convergence in the new member states, as well as tendencies related to inequality, in particular the reduction of households’ mobility between income groups.Polish Abstract: Wzrost w Unii Europejskiej od wybuchu globalnego kryzysu finansowego jest wolniejszy (1) niz przed kryzysem, (2) niz wynikaloby to z trendu, (3) niz przewidywano i (4) niz w Stanach Zjednoczonych. Jego slabośc wynika bardziej z powodow podazowych niz popytowych. Strate w produkcie potencjalnym po kryzysie zwiekszaly: nierownowagi sprzed kryzysu, stymulacja fiskalna z lat 2007-2009 zwiekszająca wydatki publiczne pomimo braku przestrzeni fiskalnej, nadzwyczajne wsparcie plynnościowe dla bankow oraz sztywnośc rynku dobr w momencie wybuchu kryzysu. Problemy ze wzrostem mogą sie poglebic i utrwalic, jezeli nadal bedzie roslo poparcie spoleczne dla partii antyrynkowych. Partiom skrajnym sprzyja dywergencja w krajach „starej” Unii i spowolnienie konwergencji w nowych krajach czlonkowskich, jak rowniez tendencje dotyczące nierowności, w tym zwlaszcza zmniejszenie mobilności gospodarstw domowych miedzy grupami dochodowymi.144. Zeszyt mBank-CASE sklada sie z glownej publikacji Andrzeja Rzoncy i Aleksandra Łaszka pt. "O wzroście gospodarczym w Europie, czyli niepewna perspektywa rozwoju krajow zachodnich" oraz komentarz Andrzeja Halesiaka "Wzrost gospodarczy w Europie Zachodniej – perspektywa inwestycji".
摘要:自全球金融危机爆发以来，欧盟的增长速度(1)比危机前慢，(2)比趋势表明的慢，(3)比预测慢，(4)比美国慢。导致其疲软的因素更多地在于供给方面，而不是需求方面。危机前的不平等加剧了危机后潜在产出的损失;2007-2009年的财政刺激，在财政空间不足的情况下增加公共支出;对银行的过度流动性支持;在危机爆发的那一刻，商品市场缺乏灵活性。如果社会对反市场政党的支持继续增加，经济增长的问题可能会加深并成为永久性问题。“老”欧盟国家之间的分歧、新成员国趋同的放缓，以及与不平等有关的趋势，特别是收入群体之间家庭流动性的减少，都支持极端主义政党。摘要:Wzrost w Unii Europejskiej od wybuchu globalnego kryzysu finansowego jest wolniejszy (1) niz prized kryzysem， (2) niz wynikaloby to z trendu， (3) niz przewidywano i (4) niz w Stanach Zjednoczonych。Jego slabośc wynika bardziejz powodowpodazowych niz popytowych。战略产品潜力(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)(战略产品潜力)问题是，谁的系统mogogsie policic是在哪里，耶泽里·纳达尔·贝兹·罗什尔(jezeli nadal bedzie)是在哪里。14 . Partiom skrajnym sprzyja dywergencja w krajach " starej " Unii spowolnienie konwergencji w nowych krajach czlonkowskich, jak rowniez tenencje dotyczące nierowności, wtym zwlaszcza zmniejszenie mobilności gospodarstw domchich miedzy groupami dochodowymi。Zeszyt mBank-CASE sklada sie glownej publiclikji Andrzeja Rzoncy i Aleksandra Łaszka pt。“O wzroście gospodarczym w Europie, czyli niepewna perspektywa rozwoju krajow zachodnich”oraz komentarz Andrzeja Halesiaka“Wzrost gospodarczy w Europie Zachodniej - perspektywa inwestyji”。
{"title":"On Economic Growth in Europe, or, the Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries (O wzroście gospodarczym w Europie, czyli niepewna perspektywa rozwoju krajów zachodnich)","authors":"A. Rzońca, Aleksander Laszek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900852","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900852","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: Growth in the European Union since the outbreak of the global financial crisis is slower (1) than before the crisis, (2) than the trend would indicate, (3) than forecast and (4) than in the United States. The factors driving its weakness lie more on the supply side than the demand side. The loss of potential output after the crisis was exacerbated by inequalities from before the crisis; fiscal stimulus from 2007-2009, increasing public expenditure despite the lack of fiscal space; excessive liquidity support for banks; and inflexibility of the market for goods at the moment the crisis broke out. The problems with growth may deepen and become permanent if social support for anti-market parties continues to grow. Extremist parties are supported by divergence among the countries of the “old” EU and the slowdown of convergence in the new member states, as well as tendencies related to inequality, in particular the reduction of households’ mobility between income groups.Polish Abstract: Wzrost w Unii Europejskiej od wybuchu globalnego kryzysu finansowego jest wolniejszy (1) niz przed kryzysem, (2) niz wynikaloby to z trendu, (3) niz przewidywano i (4) niz w Stanach Zjednoczonych. Jego slabośc wynika bardziej z powodow podazowych niz popytowych. Strate w produkcie potencjalnym po kryzysie zwiekszaly: nierownowagi sprzed kryzysu, stymulacja fiskalna z lat 2007-2009 zwiekszająca wydatki publiczne pomimo braku przestrzeni fiskalnej, nadzwyczajne wsparcie plynnościowe dla bankow oraz sztywnośc rynku dobr w momencie wybuchu kryzysu. Problemy ze wzrostem mogą sie poglebic i utrwalic, jezeli nadal bedzie roslo poparcie spoleczne dla partii antyrynkowych. Partiom skrajnym sprzyja dywergencja w krajach „starej” Unii i spowolnienie konwergencji w nowych krajach czlonkowskich, jak rowniez tendencje dotyczące nierowności, w tym zwlaszcza zmniejszenie mobilności gospodarstw domowych miedzy grupami dochodowymi.144. Zeszyt mBank-CASE sklada sie z glownej publikacji Andrzeja Rzoncy i Aleksandra Łaszka pt. \"O wzroście gospodarczym w Europie, czyli niepewna perspektywa rozwoju krajow zachodnich\" oraz komentarz Andrzeja Halesiaka \"Wzrost gospodarczy w Europie Zachodniej – perspektywa inwestycji\".","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128081871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The chronic nature of sovereign debt crises has resulted in the growing interest of analysts in finding both their real causes and the mechanisms of cross-country transmission - the so-called contagion effect. In this paper, we will try to answer the frequently asked question: what is the “safe” level of public debt (i.e. what level helps to avoid the risk of sovereign default)? Simultaneously, we will address various conceptual, institutional, and statistical dilemmas related to the definition and measurement of public debt.
{"title":"Fiscal Sustainability: Conceptual, Institutional, and Policy Issues","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2829513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2829513","url":null,"abstract":"The chronic nature of sovereign debt crises has resulted in the growing interest of analysts in finding both their real causes and the mechanisms of cross-country transmission - the so-called contagion effect. In this paper, we will try to answer the frequently asked question: what is the “safe” level of public debt (i.e. what level helps to avoid the risk of sovereign default)? Simultaneously, we will address various conceptual, institutional, and statistical dilemmas related to the definition and measurement of public debt.","PeriodicalId":175661,"journal":{"name":"CASE - Center for Social & Economic Research Paper Series","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126465696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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